Academic literature on the topic 'United States. Federal Open Market Committee'

Drawing on an analysis of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) documents, this paper argues that political pressures on the Federal Reserve were an important contributor to the rise in inflation in the United States in the 1970s. Members of the FOMC understood that a serious attempt to tackle inflation would generate opposition from Congress and the executive branch. Political considerations contributed to delays in monetary tightening, insufficiently aggressive anti-inflation policies, and the premature abandonment of attempts at disinflation. Empirical analysis verifies that references to the political environment at FOMC meetings are correlated with the stance of monetary policy during this period. (JEL D72, E32, E52, E58, N12)

The emergence of Bitcoin in 2009 has received considerable attention surrounding the validity of cryptocurrencies as a viable and, in some jurisdictions, a legal currency alternative. Despite widespread concern that these cryptocurrencies are fostering the environment within which a substantial bubble can occur, it is important to analyze whether these new assets are behaving similarly to major international currencies. This paper investigates the effects of international monetary policy changes on bitcoin returns using a GARCH (1.1) estimation model. The results indicate that monetary policy decisions based on interest rates taken by the Federal Open Market Committee in the United States significantly impact upon bitcoin returns. After controlling for international effects, we find significant evidence of volatility effects driven by United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Japanese quantitative easing announcements. These results show that, despite its nature and ideals, bitcoin seems to be subject to the same economic factors as traditional fiat currencies, and is not entirely unaffected by government policies. This result has implications for investors using bitcoin as a hedging or diversification tool. In addition, we contribute to the existing debate regarding the classification of bitcoin as an asset class, by illustrating that bitcoin volatility exhibits various reactions that bear resemblance to both currency pairs and store-of-value assets.

To control pharmaceutical spending and improve access, the United States could adopt strategies similar to those introduced in Germany by the 2011 German Pharmaceutical Market Reorganization Act. In Germany, manufacturers sell new drugs immediately upon receiving marketing approval. During the first year, the German Federal Joint Committee assesses new drugs to determine their added medical benefit. It assigns them a score indicating their added benefit. New drugs comparable to drugs in a reference price group are assigned to that group and receive the same reimbursement, unless they are therapeutically superior. The National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds then negotiates with manufacturers the maximum reimbursement starting the 13th month, consistent with the drug's added benefit assessment and price caps in other European countries. In the absence of agreement, an arbitration board sets the price. Manufacturers accept the price resolution or exit the market. Thereafter, prices generally are not increased, even for inflation. US public and private insurers control prices in diverse ways, but typically obtain discounts by designating certain drugs as preferred and by restricting patient access or charging high copayment for nonpreferred drugs. This article draws 10 lessons for drug pricing reform in US federal programs and private insurance.

Several organizations in the United States have a major interest in creating, testing, and using methods of data presentation that respect privacy and assure confidentiality. The following are among those that do so, and provide up-to-date information on these topics for the benefit of others who conduct human research: (1) The Committee on Privacy and Confidentiality of the American Statistical Association; (2) an interagency committee of the federal government, the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, and its subcommittees, the Confidentiality and Data Access Committee and the Committee on Privacy; (3) the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (University of Michigan), whose core mission is to archive important social science data, provide open and equitable access to data, and promote the effective use of data; and (4) Carnegie Mellon University's Department of Statistics, which has created an open-access online journal, the Journal on Privacy and Confidentiality. These resources are described, and URLs are provided to give readers web access to these resources.

The SARS-COVID-2019 pandemic of 2020 severely weakened the surgical innovation pipeline and ecosystem, primarily due to factors that include lack of a coordinated federal response, weakened health insurance coverage, a politicized approach to public health and safety, and disruption of the US economy. A successful bench to bedside innovation requires trust in the scientific research, open research and clinical facilities, and participation of patients in clinical studies. In addition, stay-at-home orders and the shutdown of elective medical and surgical care and research laboratories diminished opportunities for the informal interactions that are part of the new product development process. The pandemic and how it was managed prolonged the length of time for creation, adoption, and diffusion of new products and services into the market. Furthermore, the loss of hospital revenues from canceled elective care translates into a much smaller market for new technologies. Looking forward, critical success factors for innovation include federal policy that supports science and offers access and insurance coverage for health care, including addressing social determinants of health. Any further shutdowns of research and clinical care will hinder necessary collaborations between scientists, clinicians, and patients. Economic recovery is required to ensure federal and corporate funding for research and development. Trust in science must be restored to ensure support of necessary regulatory review processes and sufficient participation in clinical trials. Surgical discoveries have brought about lifesaving and life-extending cures, and the pipeline of these discoveries must continue without interruption.

In this article, the author uses a survey of more that 90,000 members of the Federal Employees' Health Benefits Plan (FEHBP) to examine a population whose health care is provided by a regulated market unlike any other market in the United States. Within the FEHBP, the government defines the market and brings buyers and sellers together, guaranteeing each much more security than either is able to obtain in the open market. For the sellers, there is the promise of having a customer for at least a year. For the consumer, there is the promise of being treated like any other customer in spite of preexisting illness or other special health care needs. To assess the success of this plan, the author examines how the consumers perceive the quality of their plans and their overall level of satisfaction and then compares that information to perceived quality and satisfaction among consumers in the open market.

Free trade is part of neo-liberal economics, which is centred on the free market principles of limited government regulation and private sector competition. Free trade focuses on the elimination of trade barriers and tariffs. In Canada, the movement toward free trade began in 1985 with the Royal Commission on the Economic Union and Development Prospects for Canada, which encouraged free trade between the United States and Canada, and concluded with the 1988 federal election that sealed Canada’s fate within economic union with the United States. This article will combine a Neo-Marxist and Political Process Theory framework to address how during the period from 1985 to 1988, Canadian social movements adopted innovative tactics and mobilized against free trade to gain greater influence over trade policy. Keywords: free trade; social movements; Canada; United States; Auto Pact; United Steel Workers; Canadian Auto Workers, National Action Committee on the Status of Women; Council of Canadians; Macdonald Commission

The United States Federal Communications Commission delivered to Congress a national broadband plan in 2010. The purpose of this article is to analyze key economic arguments involving the development of the broadband plan addressing open network and competition issues, to make recommendations to the Commission in its formulation of federal policy as to positions that make the most economic sense, and to indicate recent economic and legal developments in broadband markets since publication of the broadband plan. One critical issue prior to the development of the broadband plan and subsequent to its publication is the competitiveness of the Internet Service Provider market. There is emerging evidence that, at least with respect to very high-speed broadband markets, a cable monopoly may be looming. The authors continue to predict with confidence that technological innovations are likely to make many opposing legal arguments obsolete in the near future.

Although the border between Canada and the United States for natural gas has been open for some time now, the free-market development of natural gas industries is changing from short-term deal-making to long-term industry placement. Here the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement will take on a critical role in permitting decisions on elements of trade to be made more confidently. This article focuses on key U. S. federal regulatory principles and programs and how Congress's intention in the Natural Gas Act has been carried through so that the federal government will no longer occupy the field of gas regulation, but ensure that where the use of that commodity involves the interests of two or more states, the overall national public interest would be protected. Therefore, producing states would regulate the physical production of gas before it enters the stream of interstate commerce as well as control matters entirely intrastate in nature. The future of contract demand conversions and gas inventory charges will allow customers to purchase gas from a variety of competitive suppliers without suffering a loss of service reliability. In effect gas inventory charges represent the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's attempt to prevent pipelines from finding them selves with massive take-or-pay liabilities. Through Order No. 436, the Commission has attempted to streamline the regulatory approval process for pipeline construction projects and in turn to foster market competition. The author argues that rate reform is making its way towards what he feels is its natural conclusion where contract, rather than regulation, will be the principal determinant of right and obligation between industry participants at the interstate level. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would become more of a referee than director for questions of anti-competitive behaviour in the use of interstate facilities.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is one of the commonly used indices on the New York Stock Exchange. The 500 publicly traded companies that make up the index are chosen by a committee to best reflect the overall market of the United States. The broader objective of this research is to estimate the dynamics of the financial market movement in the United States. It is achieved by developing a data-integrated tree-based simulation model to predict S&P500 open and close values for a week. Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - a data mining method - is utilized to extract patterns of the financial market dynamics based on a data set collected from May 1, 2008 to November 30, 2009. The data set included the daily movement of financial markets in seven countries in Asia and Europe in relation to the daily movement of the S&P500. CART also utilized data on the currency exchange rates to capture the financial dynamics between the US and other countries. The simulation model repeatedly samples from four trees developed by CART to know how the opening and closing values of the S&P500 move in tandem with the other markets.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--West Virginia University, 2010.
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This chapter begins with a discussion of the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve Banking System. The Federal Reserve System was created by Congress under the Federal Reserve Act “to provide for the establishment of federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States and for other purposes.” The Federal Reserve System comprises a central Board of Governors appointed by the president of the United States and confirmed by the Senate, and 12 regional Reserve banks. Monetary policy is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The remainder of the chapter covers monetary policy, quantitative easing, balance sheet normalization and the FOMC minutes.

This chapter examines the impact of the stock market crash of October 1929 on the monetary system of the United States. Very little attention has been given to the factors which converted the uncomfortable and distressing crises of the previous century into the profound and enduring tragedy known as the Great Depression. Neither the stock market crash of October 1929 nor the antecedent speculation has often been deemed to be a decisive cause. The chapter first considers how the stock market crash affected investment expenditures by business and consumer expenditures before discussing the bank failures that followed the crash. It also explores how bank failures and the fear of bank failures induced deflation and how the Federal Reserve System began open-market operations after harboring fears of inflation. Finally, it looks at the reform of the Federal Reserve System by legislation in 1933, 1934, and 1935.

The creation of an intelligent supply chain is now an urgent national security priority that cannot be achieved without the joint mobilization of various stakeholders in Canada. It is not, however, an end in itself: the achievement of a single, competitive, sustainable, and consumer-focused domestic market should be the ultimate outcome of the national taskforce needed to collaboratively implement the recommendations of three complementary public policy reports published in 2022 on the state of the supply chain in Canada. The supply chain challenge is vast, and it will only become more complex over time. Governments in Canada must act together now, in conjunction with collaborative efforts with our allies and partners, notably the United States and the European Union, to ensure supply chain resilience in the face of accelerating current and anticipated upheavals, geopolitical conflicts and natural disasters. Québec's geostrategic position is a major asset, and gives it a critical role and responsibility in implementing not only the Final Report of the National Supply Chain Task Force ("ACT"), but also of the recommendations contained in the report published by the Council of Ministers Responsible for Transportation and Highway Safety (COMT) and those contained in the report of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities published in Ottawa in November 2022, "Improving the Efficiency and Resilience of Canada's Supply Chains". The mobilizing approach towards a common data space for Canada's supply chain is inspired by Advantage St. Lawrence's forward-looking Smart Economic Corridor vision and builds on and integrates experience gained from various initiatives and programs implemented in Canada, the U.S. and Europe, as appropriate. Its initial implementation in the St. Lawrence - Great Lakes trade corridor will facilitate the subsequent access and sharing of data from across the Canadian supply chain in a reliable and secure manner. The accelerated joint development of a common data space is a game-changer not only in terms of solving critical supply chain challenges, but also in terms of the impetus it will generate in the pursuit of fundamental Canadian priorities, including the energy transition. This Bourgogne report offers a four-part synthesis: - An overview of a background characterized by numerous consultations, strategy announcements, measures, and mixed results. - A cross-analysis of the recommendations of three important and complementary public policy reports at federal level, as well as the Quebec strategy, “l'Avantage Saint-Laurent”. - An analysis of the fundamental issues of mobilization capacity, execution, and under-utilization of data. - Some operational solutions for moving into « Action, Collaboration and Transformation » (ACT) mode.

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño