To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Unpredictability and predictability.
Journal articles on the topic 'Unpredictability and predictability'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 journal articles for your research on the topic 'Unpredictability and predictability.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse journal articles on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Byrnes, C. I., A. Lindquist, and T. McGregor. "Predictability and unpredictability in Kalman filtering." IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 36, no. 5 (May 1991): 563–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/9.76362.
Full text
2
Lipton-Lifschitz, Alexander. "Predictability and unpredictability in financial markets." Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 133, no. 1-4 (September 1999): 321–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0167-2789(99)00088-3.
Full text
3
Viola, Emanuele. "AC0 Unpredictability." ACM Transactions on Computation Theory 13, no. 1 (March 2021): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3442362.
Full textAbstract:
We prove that for every distribution D on n bits with Shannon entropy ≥ n − a , at most O (2 d a log d +1 g )/γ 5 of the bits D i can be predicted with advantage γ by an AC 0 circuit of size g and depth D that is a function of all of the bits of D except D i . This answers a question by Meir and Wigderson, who proved a corresponding result for decision trees. We also show that there are distributions D with entropy ≥ n − O (1) such that any subset of O ( n / log n ) bits of D on can be distinguished from uniform by a circuit of depth 2 and size poly( n ). This separates the notions of predictability and distinguishability in this context.
4
Schadenberg, Bob R., Dennis Reidsma, Dirk K. J. Heylen, and Vanessa Evers. "“I See What You Did There”." ACM Transactions on Human-Robot Interaction 10, no. 3 (July 2021): 1–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3461534.
Full textAbstract:
Unpredictability in robot behaviour can cause difficulties in interacting with robots. However, for social interactions with robots, a degree of unpredictability in robot behaviour may be desirable for facilitating engagement and increasing the attribution of mental states to the robot. To generate a better conceptual understanding of predictability, we looked at two facets of predictability, namely, the ability to predict robot actions and the association of predictability as an attribute of the robot. We carried out a video human-robot interaction study where we manipulated whether participants could either see the cause of a robot’s responsive action or could not see this, because there was no cause, or because we obstructed the visual cues. Our results indicate that when the cause of the robot’s responsive actions was not visible, participants rated the robot as more unpredictable and less competent, compared to when it was visible. The relationship between seeing the cause of the responsive actions and the attribution of competence was partially mediated by the attribution of unpredictability to the robot. We argue that the effects of unpredictability may be mitigated when the robot identifies when a person may not be aware of what the robot wants to respond to and uses additional actions to make its response predictable.
5
Luquine Júnior, Cézar Donizetti, Anna Beatriz Carnielli Howat-Rodrigues, and Patrícia Izar. "Relationship between childhood (un)predictability and life milestones in young Brazilians." Interpersona: An International Journal on Personal Relationships 11, no. 1 (October 20, 2017): 92–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.5964/ijpr.v11i1.252.
Full textAbstract:
The present study sought to investigate whether perceived family unpredictability affects the development of life history strategies in both the reproductive and somatic domains by evaluating the ages at which life milestones occurred. In this study 211 young Brazilians answered a 10-item instrument that contained future milestones, the Family Unpredictability in Childhood, and a sociodemographic questionnaire. Not all participants had already achieved the milestones. Earlier ages of giving birth to the first child, marrying, starting a family, and at first formal employment were correlated with greater unpredictability scores. Significant correlations were found more frequently for the participants who had already met the milestones. Data support the importance of the childhood environment for later development. Results suggest that data obtained based on the ages at which milestones occurred and ages at which milestones are expected to occur may present important differences with regard to the influence of environmental factors.
6
Zárate, Griselda, and Homero Zambrano. "Financial discourse of the 2007–2008 crisis: From unpredictability and explosion to predictability." Sign Systems Studies 46, no. 2/3 (November 19, 2018): 282–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.12697/sss.2018.46.2-3.04.
Full textAbstract:
This paper aims to identify the inflection point in financial discourse, the moment of explosion and unpredictability in the 2007–2008 economic crisis, through an analysis of metaphors, and its relation to the concept of jumps in finance. The corpus is formed by articles dating from 2007–2008 published in The Wall Street Journal and related to the movements of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index (S&P500) of the United States. For the purposes of this paper, two texts are analysed: “Traders in Lehman, AIG held out hope – Friday”, and the speech “Four questions about the financial crisis” by Ben S. Bernanke. What is of particular interest is the transformation of unpredictability to predictability, as incorporated in this type of discourse to indicate a predetermined chain of events, chosen from a wide spectrum of possibilities. The theoretical framework draws on Juri Lotman’s views on the concepts of explosion, unpredictability, inflection point and predictability.
7
Kayani, Sehrish, Usman Ayub, and Imran Abbas Jadoon. "Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Artificial Neural Networks: Evidence from Pakistan." Global Regional Review IV, no. II (June 30, 2019): 190–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/grr.2019(iv-ii).21.
Full textAbstract:
The debate covering stock return predictability is now shifted towards the investigation of changing patterns of return predictability as suggested by the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). The present article inspects the varying return predictability pertaining to the equity market in Pakistan under AMH framework. A nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) model is employed to investigate the nonlinear dependency of returns over a period of eighteen years. NARNN is a robust and flexible technique that is free from any restrictive assumptions. Under a rolling window framework, the repeating patterns of predictability and unpredictability are observed. This finding confirms the idea of AMH.
8
Ross, Lisa Thomson, and Elizabeth M. Hill. "Comparing Alcoholic and Nonalcoholic Parents on the Family Unpredictability Scale." Psychological Reports 94, no. 3_suppl (June 2004): 1385–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.94.3c.1385-1391.
Full textAbstract:
Research findings and clinical observations suggest that families with an alcoholic parent are more unpredictable. Alcoholic parents ( n = 25, 68% men, 68% Euro-American, M age = 38.6 yr.) and community parents ( n = 27, 52% men, 70% Euro-American, M age = 38.8 yr.) completed the self-report Family Unpredictability Scale of Ross and Hill. Alcoholic parents reported significantly higher (less predictability) scores on the subscales of Nurturance, Finances, and Discipline, as well as on the Total Family Unpredictability Scale ( ps < .01). This appears to be the first study on family unpredictability and parental alcoholism in which parental reports of multiple dimensions of unpredictability are used. We provide suggestions for research and clinical uses of the scale, especially pertaining to families with an alcoholic parent.
9
NE, Gyamfi, Kyei KA, and Gill R. "African Stock Markets and Return Predictability." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 8, no. 5(J) (October 30, 2016): 91–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v8i5(j).1434.
Full textAbstract:
This article re-examines the return predictability of eight African stock markets. When returns of stocks are predictable, arbitrageurs make abnormal gains from analyzing prices. The study uses a non-parametric Generalised Spectral (GS) test in a rolling window approach. The rolling window approach tracts the periods of efficiency over time. The GS test is robust to conditional heteroscedasticity and it detects the presence of linear and nonlinear dependencies in a stationary time series. Our results support the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). This is because, indices whose returns were observed to be predictable by analyzing them in absolute form and therefore weak - form inefficient showed trends of unpredictability in a rolling window.
10
Ahdar, Rex. "CONTRACT DOCTRINE, PREDICTABILITY AND THE NEBULOUS EXCEPTION." Cambridge Law Journal 73, no. 1 (March 2014): 39–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008197314000014.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractThere is a tendency in contemporary contract law for judges to “never say never” and permit an open-ended exception from the rule. This nebulous exception is designed to cater for the rare instance where application of the rule would be undesirable in the interests of justice. However, this kind of imprecise exception is deleterious in terms of the unpredictability it generates, as well as the attendant increases in time and costs that result. The “never say never” approach is to be discouraged in contract law where commercial predictability, while certainly not inviolable, nonetheless remains a weighty goal deserving of continued deference.
11
Han, Shui’Er, David Alais, and Randolph Blake. "Battle of the Mondrians: Investigating the Role of Unpredictability in Continuous Flash Suppression." i-Perception 9, no. 4 (July 2018): 204166951879293. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2041669518792930.
Full textAbstract:
In continuous flash suppression (CFS), a dynamic sequence of Mondrian patterns presented to one eye suppresses a static target in the other eye for several seconds at a time. Its effectiveness has been linked to low-level properties such as spatial frequency and orientation, but the role of higher order influences remains unstudied. Here, using a tracking paradigm, we asked if the spatial and temporal predictability of the Mondrian sequence affects CFS dynamics. Predictable temporal sequences were regularly updated every 100 ms or modulated sinusoidally in pixel luminance at 2 Hz. Unpredictable temporal sequences were irregularly updated or had stochastic pixel luminance changes across time. To vary spatial predictability, sequences were either updated with different Mondrian patterns or had a fixed spatial pattern. We found a modest effect of spatial uncertainty when the target modulation was low (0.125 Hz) but not temporal uncertainty, which had no significant effects regardless of target modulation. Similar results were obtained when we pitted the standard Mondrian sequence against sequences with a fixed spatial pattern and temporally low-pass filtered sequences in a binocular rivalry paradigm. Thus, not only was the effect of information predictability was modest and spatial, but it was also dependent on the presence of higher temporal frequencies. Together, the results demonstrate the significance of low-level properties in affecting CFS dynamics and the possible involvement of pattern structure masking in CFS.
12
Franch-Gras, Lluis, Eduardo M. García-Roger, Manuel Serra, and María José Carmona. "Adaptation in response to environmental unpredictability." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 284, no. 1868 (December 6, 2017): 20170427. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.0427.
Full textAbstract:
Understanding how organisms adaptively respond to environmental fluctuations is a fundamental question in evolutionary biology. The Mediterranean region typically exhibits levels of environmental unpredictability that vary greatly in habitats over small geographical scales. In cyclically parthenogenetic rotifers, clonal proliferation occurs along with occasional bouts of sex. These bouts contribute to the production of diapausing eggs, which allows survival between growing seasons. Here, we studied two diapause-related traits in rotifers using clones from nine Brachionus plicatilis natural populations that vary in the degree of environmental unpredictability. We tested the hypothesis that the level of environmental unpredictability is directly related to the propensity for sex and inversely related to the hatching fraction of diapausing eggs. We found significant levels of genetic variation within populations for both traits. Interestingly, a positive correlation between pond unpredictability—quantified in a previous study from satellite imagery—and the propensity for sex was found. This correlation suggests a conservative, bet-hedging strategy that provides protection against unexpectedly short growing seasons. By contrast, the hatching fraction of diapausing eggs was not related to the level of environmental predictability. Our results highlight the ability of rotifer populations to locally adapt to time-varying environments, providing an evolutionarily relevant step forward in relating life-history traits to a quantitative measure of environmental unpredictability.
13
Wiehn, Tanja. "(Un)predictable acts of data in machine learning environments." A Peer-Reviewed Journal About 8, no. 1 (August 15, 2019): 142–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.7146/aprja.v8i1.115421.
Full textAbstract:
This paper investigates artistic representations of machine learning and their interventional potential. Taking its point of departure in two works of art, the paper discusses effects of predictability and unpredictability caused by machine learning systems. By thinking through “eventfulness” (Bucher) and “nonconscious cognition” (Hayles) in human and non-human environments, the paper analyzes the potential of artistic practices to question and rethink algorithmic processing. The paper provides a framework in which artwork challenges forms of technological predictability and comes to terms with machine learning as a fundamental cultural practice in its own right.
14
Eames, Michael, and Steven Glover. "Earnings Predictability And Broker-Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Bias." Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 33, no. 6 (November 1, 2017): 1285–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v33i6.10061.
Full textAbstract:
Scholars have reasoned that analysts issue optimistic forecasts to improve their access to managers’ private information when earnings are unpredictable. While this requires a managerial preference for analyst forecast optimism, the observed walk-down of analyst expectations to beatable forecasts is consistent with a managerial preference for pessimism in short-horizon forecasts. Using data from various sample periods, alternative model specifications, and various measures of earnings unpredictability, we find that pessimism, not optimism, in short-horizon forecasts is associated with increasingly unpredictable earnings. Our results suggest that firms can more effectively manage analysts’ earnings expectations downward when earnings are relatively unpredictable.
15
Koutsoyiannis, D. "HESS Opinions "A random walk on water"." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 3 (March 25, 2010): 585–601. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-585-2010.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. According to the traditional notion of randomness and uncertainty, natural phenomena are separated into two mutually exclusive components, random (or stochastic) and deterministic. Within this dichotomous logic, the deterministic part supposedly represents cause-effect relationships and, thus, is physics and science (the "good"), whereas randomness has little relationship with science and no relationship with understanding (the "evil"). Here I argue that such views should be reconsidered by admitting that uncertainty is an intrinsic property of nature, that causality implies dependence of natural processes in time, thus suggesting predictability, but even the tiniest uncertainty (e.g. in initial conditions) may result in unpredictability after a certain time horizon. On these premises it is possible to shape a consistent stochastic representation of natural processes, in which predictability (suggested by deterministic laws) and unpredictability (randomness) coexist and are not separable or additive components. Deciding which of the two dominates is simply a matter of specifying the time horizon and scale of the prediction. Long horizons of prediction are inevitably associated with high uncertainty, whose quantification relies on the long-term stochastic properties of the processes.
16
Koutsoyiannis, D. "<i>HESS Opinions</i> "A random walk on water"." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 6, no. 5 (October 29, 2009): 6611–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-6-6611-2009.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. According to the traditional notion of randomness and uncertainty, natural phenomena are separated into two mutually exclusive components, random (or stochastic) and deterministic. Within this dichotomous logic, the deterministic part supposedly represents cause-effect relationships and, thus, is physics and science (the "good"), whereas randomness has little relationship with science and no relationship with understanding (the "evil"). We argue that such views should be reconsidered by admitting that uncertainty is an intrinsic property of nature, that causality implies dependence of natural processes in time, thus suggesting predictability, but even the tiniest uncertainty (e.g., in initial conditions) may result in unpredictability after a certain time horizon. On these premises it is possible to shape a consistent stochastic representation of natural processes, in which predictability (suggested by deterministic laws) and unpredictability (randomness) coexist and are not separable or additive components. Deciding which of the two dominates is simply a matter of specifying the time horizon of the prediction. Long horizons of prediction are inevitably associated with high uncertainty, whose quantification relies on understanding the long-term stochastic properties of the processes.
17
Macy, Michael, Sebastian Deri, Alexander Ruch, and Natalie Tong. "Opinion cascades and the unpredictability of partisan polarization." Science Advances 5, no. 8 (August 2019): eaax0754. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax0754.
Full textAbstract:
“Culture wars” involve the puzzling alignment of partisan identity with disparate policy positions, lifestyle choices, and personal morality. Explanations point to ideological divisions, core values, moral emotions, and cognitive hardwiring. Two “multiple worlds” experiments (n = 4581) tested an alternative explanation based on the sensitivity of opinion cascades to the initial conditions. Consistent with recent studies, partisan divisions in the influence condition were much larger than in the control group (without influence). The surprise is that bigger divisions indicate less predictability. Emergent positions adopted by Republicans and opposed by Democrats in one experimental “world” had the opposite outcome in other parallel worlds. The unpredictability suggests that what appear to be deep-rooted partisan divisions in our own world may have arisen through a tipping process that might just as easily have tipped the other way. Public awareness of this counter-intuitive possibility has the potential to encourage greater tolerance for opposing opinions.
18
IFANTIS, A., and S. PAPADIMITRIOU. "THE NONLINEAR PREDICTABILITY OF THE ELECTROTELLURIC FIELD VARIATIONS DATA ANALYZED WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES AS AN EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR." International Journal of Neural Systems 13, no. 05 (October 2003): 315–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129065703001674.
Full textAbstract:
This work investigates the nonlinear predictability of the Electro Telluric Field (ETF) variations data in order to develop new intelligent tools for the difficult task of earthquake prediction. Support Vector Machines trained on a signal window have been used to predict the next sample. We observe a significant increase at this short-term unpredictability of the ETF signal at about two weeks time period before the major earthquakes that took place in regions near the recording devices. The unpredictability increase can be attributed to a quick time variation of the dynamics that produce the ETF signal due to the earthquake generation process. Thus, this increase can be taken into advantage for signaling for an increased possibility of a large earthquake within the next few days in the neighboring region of the recording station.
19
SHIL'NIKOV, A., G. NICOLIS, and C. NICOLIS. "BIFURCATION AND PREDICTABILITY ANALYSIS OF A LOW-ORDER ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MODEL." International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 05, no. 06 (December 1995): 1701–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218127495001253.
Full textAbstract:
A comprehensive bifurcation analysis of a low-order atmospheric circulation model is carried out. It is shown that the model admits a codimension-2 saddle-node-Hopf bifurcation. The principal mechanisms leading to the appearance of complex dynamics around this bifurcation are described and various routes to chaotic behavior are identified, such as the transition through the period doubling cascade, the breakdown of an invariant torus and homoclinic bifurcations of a saddle-focus. Non-trivial limit sets in the form of a chaotic attractor or a chaotic repeller are found in some parameter ranges. Their presence implies an enhanced unpredictability of the system for parameter values corresponding to the winter season.
20
Gromko, Mark H., Amy Briot, Susan C. Jensen, and H. Hank Fukui. "Selection on Copulation Duration in Drosophila melanogaster: Predictability of Direct Response Versus Unpredictability of Correlated Response." Evolution 45, no. 1 (February 1991): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2409483.
Full text
21
Gromko, Mark H., Amy Briot, Susan C. Jensen, and H. Hank Fukui. "SELECTION ON COPULATION DURATION IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER : PREDICTABILITY OF DIRECT RESPONSE VERSUS UNPREDICTABILITY OF CORRELATED RESPONSE." Evolution 45, no. 1 (February 1991): 69–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1558-5646.1991.tb05267.x.
Full text
22
El-Bialy, Tarek, and Adel Alhadlaq. "New Therapeutics in Promoting and Modulating Mandibular Growth in Cases with Mandibular Hypoplasia." BioMed Research International 2013 (2013): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/789679.
Full textAbstract:
Children with mandibular growth deficiency may develop airway obstruction. The standard treatment of severe airway obstruction involves invasive procedures such as tracheostomy. Mandibular distraction osteogenesis has been proposed in neonates with mandibular deficiency as a treatment option to avoid tracheostomy procedure later in life. Both tracheostomy and distraction osteogenesis procedures suffer from substantial shortcomings including scarring, unpredictability, and surgical complications. Forward jaw positioning appliances have been also used to enhance mandible growth. However, the effectiveness of these appliances is limited and lacks predictability. Current and future approaches to enhance mandibular growth, both experimental and clinical trials, and their effectiveness are presented and discussed.
23
Bálint, Bálint L. "Embracing Noise and Error." Hungarian Studies Yearbook 1, no. 1 (December 1, 2019): 134–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/hsy-2019-0010.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract In his article “Embracing Noise and Error”, Bálint L. Bálint argues that human society is going through a profound change as mathematical models are used to predict human behavior both on a personal level and on the level of the entire society. An inherent component of mathematical models is the concept of error or noise, which describes the level of unpredictability of a system by the specific mathematical model. The author reveals the educational origin of the abstract world that can be described by pure mathematics and can be considered an ideal world without errors. While the human perception of the world is different from the abstractions we were taught, the mathematical models need to integrate the error factor to deal with the unpredictability of reality. While scientific thinking developed the statistic-probabilistic model to define the limits of predictability, here we present that in a flow of time driven by entropy, stochastic variability is an in-built characteristic of the material world and represents ultimately the singularity of each individual moment in time and the chance for our freedom of choice.
24
Mendelson, Nina. "Change, Creation, and Unpredictability in Statutory Interpretation: Interpretive Canon Use in the Roberts Court's First Decade." Michigan Law Review, no. 117.1 (2018): 71. http://dx.doi.org/10.36644/mlr.117.1.change.
Full textAbstract:
In resolving questions of statutory meaning, the lion’s share of Roberts Court opinions considers and applies at least one interpretive canon, whether the rule against surplusage or the presumption against state law preemption. This is part of a decades-long turn toward textualist statutory interpretation in the Supreme Court. Commentators have debated how to justify canons, since they are judicially created rules that reside outside the statutory text. Earlier studies have cast substantial doubt on whether these canons can be justified as capturing congressional practices or preferences; commentators have accordingly turned toward second-order justifications, arguing that canons usefully make interpretation constrained and predictable, supplying Congress with a stable interpretive background. Based on an extensive study tracking the use of over 30 interpretive canons in the first 10 years of the Roberts Court, this Article attempts to contribute evidence to the debate over canons. The data raise substantial questions regarding stability and predictability. Despite a long tradition of use, some canons have essentially disappeared; meanwhile, the Court has created others out of whole cloth. In addition, application is erratic. The Roberts Court Justices have declined to apply even the most widely engaged canons 20–30% or more of the time, often for difficult-to-anticipate reasons; some well-known canons, such as the rule of lenity and the presumption against preemption, were applied roughly at a 50–50 rate. The story is worse in the many cases in which multiple canons are considered. Based on these and other findings, this Article accordingly argues that predictability and stability arguments cannot supply a firm foundation for canon use. The study also reveals troubling mismatches between canons actually in use and congressional staff acceptance of canons. The Article concludes by suggesting some future directions for investigation and reform.
25
Martino, Edoardo. "The Bail-in Beyond Unpredictability: Creditors’ Incentives and Market Discipline." European Business Organization Law Review 21, no. 4 (May 8, 2020): 789–828. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40804-020-00188-7.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractThe market discipline of creditors on the risk-taking behaviour of borrowing banks represents a long-lasting debate. Such a debate gained new attention after the post-crisis stream of reforms concerning resolution policy: creditors should be incentivized to make an optimal effort in monitoring their borrowers and, at the same time, their interests have been aligned with the social ones. Many commentators criticized such an expectation especially in the European context, arguing that the lack of credibility and excessive complexity of the resolution mechanism impair the ability and willingness of creditors to exert a disciplining role. This article aims at taking a step forward in this scientific debate, investigating whether the ability to exert disciplining activity is inherently impaired by the design of the Directive. In other words, this research wants to assess if, assuming an ideal environment, creditors would have optimal incentives to monitor banks’ behaviour and to react accordingly. To do so, the article reviews the literature on market discipline, then carries out a legal analysis of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), focusing on those norms shaping the market for bail-inable securities. Eventually, the incentives stemming from those norms are discussed, assuming an ideal environment where a bail-in is certain and credible and the market for bail-inable securities works smoothly. The analysis highlights that the incentives of creditors toward market discipline are inherently diluted by the BRRD’s legal design because of competing policy objectives pursued by the Directive. The direct normative consequence of such a finding is that enhancing information and predictability, though desirable in principle, will never lead to an optimal monitoring effort, leaving the floor to alternative rule-based strategies.
26
Pélabon, Christophe, Francesca De Giorgi, Øystein H. Opedal, Geir H. Bolstad, Astrid Raunsgard, and W. Scott Armbruster. "Is There More to Within-plant Variation in Seed Size than Developmental Noise?" Evolutionary Biology 48, no. 3 (July 8, 2021): 366–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11692-021-09544-y.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractWithin-plant variation in seed size may merely reflect developmental instability, or it may be adaptive in facilitating diversifying bet-hedging, that is, production of phenotypically diverse offspring when future environments are unpredictable. To test the latter hypothesis, we analyzed patterns of variation in seed size in 11 populations of the perennial vine Dalechampia scandens grown in a common greenhouse environment. We tested whether population differences in the mean and variation of seed size covaried with environmental predictability at two different timescales. We also tested whether within-plant variation in seed size was correlated with independent measures of floral developmental instability and increased under stressful conditions. Populations differed genetically in the amount of seed-size variation occurring among plants, among infructescences within plants, and among seeds within infructescences. Within-individual variation was not detectably correlated with measures of developmental instability and did not increase under stress, but it increased weakly with short-term environmental unpredictability of precipitation at the source-population site. These results support the hypothesis that greater variation in seed size is adaptive when environmental predictability is low.
27
Briffa, Mark. "Plastic proteans: reduced predictability in the face of predation risk in hermit crabs." Biology Letters 9, no. 5 (October 23, 2013): 20130592. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2013.0592.
Full textAbstract:
Variation in behaviour occurs at multiple levels, including between individuals (personality) and between situations (plasticity). Behaviour also varies within individuals, and intra-individual variation (IIV) in behaviour describes within-individual residual variance in behaviour that remains after the effects of obvious external and internal influences on behaviour have been accounted for. IIV thus describes how predictable an individual's behaviour is. Differences in predictability, between individuals and between situations, might be biologically significant. For example, behaving unpredictably under predation threat might reduce the chance of capture. Here, we investigated the duration of startle responses in hermit crabs, in the presence and absence of a predator cue. Individuals differed in startle response duration (personality) and while individuals also varied in their sensitivity to risk, mean response time was greater in the presence of a predator (plasticity). Moreover, IIV was greater in the presence of a predator, providing some of the first evidence that the facultative injection of unpredictability into behaviour might represent a strategy for dealing with risk.
28
Pistorius, Thomas. "Beyond statistics: a new rhetoric for investment theory." Journal of Organizational Change Management 27, no. 5 (August 11, 2014): 722–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jocm-09-2014-0169.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the current rhetoric of predictability in investment theory. After making the case for unpredictability, a new rhetoric for investment theory is proposed. Design/methodology/approach – McCloskey's project of the rhetoric of economics provides the background and approach for the author's investigation. In particular the author will use the notions of metaphor, prediction, discourse analysis, and virtue ethics. Findings – The current rhetoric equals the original rhetoric in the seminal work of Markowitz. The current rhetoric is based on predictability and rational behaviour. The proposed new rhetoric for investment theory denies predictability. The new rhetoric aims to cope with statistics by stressing that statistics is supportive but not decisive: handling investment theory is about judgements, combining virtues with historical and theoretical insights. Practical implications – The investigation of the rhetoric of investment theory has practical relevance because the theory constitutes investment practice, and can put financial wealth at risk. The new rhetoric for investment theory invites practitioners and researchers to reflect on the epistemology of investment theory, and its consequences for the field. Originality/value – The rhetoric of investment theory is to the author's knowledge not yet analysed in the literature. The rhetorical analysis of the current rhetoric and the proposal of a new rhetoric aim to contribute to the literature on the rhetoric of investment theory.
29
BAILLY, FRANCIS, and GIUSEPPE LONGO. "Randomness and determinism in the interplay between the continuum and the discrete." Mathematical Structures in Computer Science 17, no. 2 (April 2007): 289–305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0960129507006007.
Full textAbstract:
This paper provides a conceptual analysis of the role of the mathematical continuumversusthe discrete in the understanding of randomness as a notion with a physical meaning or origin. The presentation is ‘informal’ as we will not write formulas; however, we will refer to non-obvious technical results from various scientific domains, and we will also propose a conceptual framework for understanding randomness (and predictability), which we believe is, essentially, original. As a matter of fact, unpredictability and randomness may be conveniently identified in various physico-mathematical contexts. This will allow us to explore these concepts in continuousversusdiscrete frameworks, with particular emphasis on the relationships and differences between classical approaches and quantum theories in Physics.
30
Ravenscroft, Simon. "Play and Interruption as a Mode of Action in Arendt, Dostoevsky, and Kharms." Janus Head 19, no. 1 (2021): 61–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/jh20211915.
Full textAbstract:
This essay uses Hannah Arendt’s theory of action and her critique of modern politics to explore the themes of predictability and unpredictability in human affairs, and the political meaning of interruption and refusal. It draws on the life and literature of the Russian avant-gardist, Daniil Kharms (1905- 1942), alongside Fyodor Dostoevsky and several contemporary theorists, to offer a reading of action as taking the form, specifically, of playful interruption and generative refusal. A marginal figure whose deeds and writings were disruptively strange, Kharms is taken as an exemplar of action in this ludic mode. This serves to elaborate upon Arendt’s concepts of plurality and natality, while challenging some weaknesses in her theory of action as a whole.
31
Salter, Gerard, Vaughan R. Voller, and Chris Paola. "Chaos in a simple model of a delta network." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 44 (October 19, 2020): 27179–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2010416117.
Full textAbstract:
The flux partitioning in delta networks controls how deltas build land and generate stratigraphy. Here, we study flux-partitioning dynamics in a delta network using a simple numerical model consisting of two orders of bifurcations. Previous work on single bifurcations has shown periodic behavior arising due to the interplay between channel deepening and downstream deposition. We find that coupling between upstream and downstream bifurcations can lead to chaos; despite its simplicity, our model generates surprisingly complex aperiodic yet bounded dynamics. Our model exhibits sensitive dependence on initial conditions, the hallmark signature of chaos, implying long-term unpredictability of delta networks. However, estimates of the predictability horizon suggest substantial room for improvement in delta-network modeling before fundamental limits on predictability are encountered. We also observe periodic windows, implying that a change in forcing (e.g., due to climate change) could cause a delta to switch from predictable to unpredictable or vice versa. We test our model by using it to generate stratigraphy; converting the temporal Lyapunov exponent to vertical distance using the mean sedimentation rate, we observe qualitatively realistic patterns such as upwards fining and scale-dependent compensation statistics, consistent with ancient and experimental systems. We suggest that chaotic behavior may be common in geomorphic systems and that it implies fundamental bounds on their predictability. We conclude that while delta “weather” (precise configuration) is unpredictable in the long-term, delta “climate” (statistical behavior) is predictable.
32
Goto, Tetsuji, Ryo Hatano, and Satoshi Tojo. "Dynamic Epistemic Reasoning with Awareness and Its Legal Application." Vietnam Journal of Computer Science 06, no. 01 (February 2019): 29–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2196888819500064.
Full textAbstract:
Concerning a software tool of legal reasoning, it is important to describe the prediction about the result of a criminal action, because a crime is often caused by the unpredictability of the result of the defendant. In the court, the judge needs to investigate the predictability and the intention of the agent. Previously, we have formalized the reasoning process of judgment by action model in dynamic epistemic logic (DEL) and have attempted to describe the precedents. However, the prediction in legal cases depends not only on the states of knowledge but also on the limited degree of attention by agents. In this paper, we employ DEL with awareness for multi-agent to represent the predictability and model the typical criminal precedents. We propose a revised semantics of action model with awareness which can define each basic action model to reproduce the agent’s considering process. To describe the legal reasoning we introduce an extension of modeling program DEMO to include the awareness (we call it DEMO[Formula: see text]) and present a GUI in this extended program to calculate the updated epistemic model easily and to classify precedents according to the degree of prediction. In the end, we calculate the epistemic models of typical criminal precedents by this newly developed tool and estimate them.
33
Mansfield, John. "Intersecting formatives and inflectional predictability: How do speakers and learners predict the correct form of Murrinhpatha verbs?" Word Structure 9, no. 2 (October 2016): 183–214. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/word.2016.0093.
Full textAbstract:
This article investigates the phenomenon of inflection by intersecting formatives, that is to say, where an exponence is encoded by a combination of independently distributed phonological increments. Formative independence is defined in terms of conditional entropy. The verb inflection system of Murrinhpatha, an Aboriginal language of northern Australia, is analysed as a particularly complex example of intersecting formatives, and in general we can say that inflectional exponence in this language is highly irregular or unpredictable. Recent information-theoretic approaches to morphology provide us with methods for formalising and measuring the unpredictability of Murrinhpatha verb inflection. We add a distinct formalism that models the probability of correct inflectional prediction given incomplete knowledge of the inflectional paradigms in the language. We argue that this is a particularly relevant model for Murrinhpatha speaker/learners, because the language has a small, closed class of finite verb lexemes, most of which have their own idiosyncratic inflectional paradigm. There are not productively applied inflectional classes. In this model of inflectional predictability, intersecting formatives are in some cases the only chance a learner/speaker has of predicting the correct form.
34
Bradley, Kevin M., and Steven A. Benner. "OligArch: A software tool to allow artificially expanded genetic information systems (AEGIS) to guide the autonomous self-assembly of long DNA constructs from multiple DNA single strands." Beilstein Journal of Organic Chemistry 10 (August 11, 2014): 1826–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.3762/bjoc.10.192.
Full textAbstract:
Synthetic biologists wishing to self-assemble large DNA (L-DNA) constructs from small DNA fragments made by automated synthesis need fragments that hybridize predictably. Such predictability is difficult to obtain with nucleotides built from just the four standard nucleotides. Natural DNA's peculiar combination of strong and weak G:C and A:T pairs, the context-dependence of the strengths of those pairs, unimolecular strand folding that competes with desired interstrand hybridization, and non-Watson–Crick interactions available to standard DNA, all contribute to this unpredictability. In principle, adding extra nucleotides to the genetic alphabet can improve the predictability and reliability of autonomous DNA self-assembly, simply by increasing the information density of oligonucleotide sequences. These extra nucleotides are now available as parts of artificially expanded genetic information systems (AEGIS), and tools are now available to generate entirely standard DNA from AEGIS DNA during PCR amplification. Here, we describe the OligArch (for "oligonucleotide architecting") software, an application that permits synthetic biologists to engineer optimally self-assembling DNA constructs from both six- and eight-letter AEGIS alphabets. This software has been used to design oligonucleotides that self-assemble to form complete genes from 20 or more single-stranded synthetic oligonucleotides. OligArch is therefore a key element of a scalable and integrated infrastructure for the rapid and designed engineering of biology.
35
Johnson, Brian A., and Hal S. Scott. "Controlling the Long-Term Problem of Short-Term Funding." Journal of Financial Regulation 5, no. 2 (August 23, 2019): 101–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jfr/fjz004.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract While financial crises can be triggered by several causes, runs on short-term liabilities are at the heart of all financial crises, with the recent 2007–09 financial crisis being no exception. Given the unpredictability of crisis triggers and the overwhelming predictability of short-term funding’s role in financial crises, legislative and regulatory responses to the recent financial crisis should focus on the consequences of relying on short-term funding in the financial system. However, in addressing the problem of such funding, it is important to recognize the social benefits afforded by short-term liabilities and not simply the costs. To this end, this paper provides a brief overview of short-term funding in the U.S. financial system, while also highlighting the trade-off between the costs and benefits of short-term liabilities. The paper proceeds with an analysis of various proposals aimed at addressing the short-term funding issue.
36
Reiskind, Martha O. Burford, Michael L. Moody, Daniel I. Bolnick, Charles T. Hanifin, and Caroline E. Farrior. "Nothing in Evolution Makes Sense Except in the Light of Biology." BioScience 71, no. 4 (February 3, 2021): 370–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa170.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract A key question in biology is the predictability of the evolutionary process. If we can correctly predict the outcome of evolution, we may be better equipped to anticipate and manage species’ adaptation to climate change, habitat loss, invasive species, or emerging infectious diseases, as well as improve our basic understanding of the history of life on Earth. In the present article, we ask the questions when, why, and if the outcome of future evolution is predictable. We first define predictable and then discuss two conflicting views: that evolution is inherently unpredictable and that evolution is predictable given the ability to collect the right data. We identify factors that generate unpredictability, the data that might be required to make predictions at some level of precision or at a specific timescale, and the intellectual and translational value of understanding when prediction is or is not possible.
37
Burns, Madeline, Frederick Cavallaro, and Julia Saltz. "Does Divergence in Habitat Breadth Associate with Species Differences in Decision Making in Drosophila sechellia and Drosophila simulans?" Genes 11, no. 5 (May 9, 2020): 528. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/genes11050528.
Full textAbstract:
Decision making is involved in many behaviors contributing to fitness, such as habitat choice, mate selection, and foraging. Because of this, high decision-making accuracy (i.e., selecting the option most beneficial for fitness) should be under strong selection. However, decision making is energetically costly, often involving substantial time and energy to survey the environment to obtain high-quality information. Thus, for high decision making accuracy to evolve, its benefits should outweigh its costs. Inconsistency in the net benefits of decision making across environments is hypothesized to be an important means for maintaining variation in this trait. However, very little is known about how environmental factors influence the evolution of decision making to produce variation among individuals, genotypes, and species. Here, we compared two recently diverged species of Drosophila differing substantially in habitat breadth and degree of environmental predictability and variability: Drosophila sechellia and Drosophila simulans. We found that the species evolving under higher environmental unpredictability and variability showed higher decision-making accuracy, but not higher environmental sampling.
38
Koderman, Eva. "Expect the unexpected: Processing of sensory information in the anticipation of predictable and unpredictable threats." Research in Social Change 11, no. 1 (January 1, 2019): 80–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/rsc-2019-0005.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Anxiety is characterized by a sustained state of heightened vigilance due to uncertain danger, producing increased attention to a perceived threat in one's environment. To further examine this exploited the temporal resolution afforded by event-related potentials to investigate the impact of predictability of threat on early perceptual activity. We recruited 28 participants and utilized a within-subject design to examine hypervigilance in anticipation of shock, unpleasant picture and unpleasant sound during a task with unpredictable, predictable and no threat. We investigated if habituation to stimuli was present by asking the participants to rate unpleasantness and intensity of the stimuli before and after the experiment. We observed hypervigilance in the unpredictable threat of shock. Habituation was observed for the visual stimuli. The present study suggests that unpredictability enhances attentional engagement with neutral somatosensory stimuli when the threat is of the same modality, meaning we observed the presence of hypervigilance which is a characteristic of anxiety.
39
Chapman, Margaret D. "Environmental Influences on the Development of Traditional Conservation in the South Pacific Region." Environmental Conservation 12, no. 3 (1985): 217–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892900015952.
Full textAbstract:
There is an urgent need for improved understanding of conservation attitudes in the Third World because of the increasing rate of resource depletion that is now occurring in the countries involved. Although conservation practices by traditional societies in the Third World have received much attention from research workers, the fact that some practices are intentional and others inadvertent has been largely ignored. However, it is the motivation for these intentional conservation measures and the environmental influences on the people who apply them, which is crucial to understanding variations in conservation behaviour among traditional societies.Traditional conservation in the South Pacific was based on a complex system of resource-use taboos which prevented overexploitation in the limited island environment. These taboos contributed to the achievement during pre- European times of what appears from historical accounts to have been a state of relative equilibrium between island populations and their resources.Predictability and extremeness are two environmental factors which are thought to affect the development of conservational behaviour. Both these factors were examined in the light of traditional conservation in the South Pacific. Droughts and hurricanes are the two main sources of environmental unpredictability in the South Pacific, although the islands vary considerably in the degree to which they are affected by them. It was concluded that a distinction between real and perceived environmental predictability was necessary before one could fully understand the influence of predictability upon the development of conservational behaviour in the South Pacific.
40
Shenfield, Lucienne, Vanessa Beanland, and Deborah Apthorp. "Temporal predictability does not impact attentional blink performance: effects of fixed vs. random inter-trial intervals." PeerJ 8 (March 5, 2020): e8677. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.8677.
Full textAbstract:
Background Does the inclusion of a randomized inter-trial interval (ITI) impact performance on an Attentional Blink (AB) task? The AB phenomenon is often used as a test of transient attention (Dux & Marois, 2009); however, it is unclear whether incorporating aspects of sustained attention, by implementing a randomized ITI, would impact task performance. The current research sought to investigate this, by contrasting a standard version of the AB task with a random ITI version to determine whether performance changed, reflecting a change in difficulty, engagement, or motivation. Method Thirty university students (21 female; age range 18–57, Mage= 21.5, SD = 7.4) completed both versions of the task, in counterbalanced order. Results No significant difference in performance was found between the standard AB task and the AB task with the random ITI. Bayesian analyses suggested moderate evidence for the null. Conclusion Temporal unpredictability did not appear to impact task performance. This suggests that the standard AB task has cognitive properties with regards to task difficulty, engagement, and motivation, that are inherently similar to tasks that employ a randomized ITI to measure sustained attention (e.g., the Psychomotor Vigilance Task; PVT; Dinges & Powell, 1985). This finding provides important support for future research which may seek to obtain a more detailed understanding of attention through the comparison of performance on transient and sustained attention tasks.
41
Leahy, Robert L. "Depressive Decision Making: Validation of the Portfolio Theory Model." Journal of Cognitive Psychotherapy 15, no. 4 (January 2001): 341–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1891/0889-8391.15.4.341.
Full textAbstract:
A multi-dimensional model of decision making, based on modern portfolio theory, is advanced that proposes that individuals consider in making behavioral decisions and contemplating risk. This model is specifically applied to depressive decision making. According to this model, depressed individuals view themselves as having few current and future resources, low predictability and control, less maximization of positives, greater minimization of negatives, less utility for gains, more disutility for losses, higher stop-loss criteria, higher information demands, more regret, and more reliance on waiting as a strategy. Participants were 153 adult psychiatric patients who were tested on a 25-item Decision Questionnaire that assessed 25 dimensions of decision making and these responses were correlated with the Beck Depression Inventory. The results substantially supported the assumptions of a general portfolio theory of risk. Risk aversion and depression were related to most of the dimensions and depression was related to risk aversion. Less depression was related to maximizing positives as a goal, but was unrelated to minimizing negatives. Four factors accounted for most of the variance: General efficacy, discouragement, unpredictability, and risk aversion.
42
Pedersen, Walker S., L. Tugan Muftuler, and Christine L. Larson. "A high-resolution fMRI investigation of BNST and centromedial amygdala activity as a function of affective stimulus predictability, anticipation, and duration." Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience 14, no. 11 (November 1, 2019): 1167–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/scan/nsz095.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Relative to the centromedial amygdala (CM), the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNST) may exhibit more sustained activation toward threat, sensitivity to unpredictability and activation during anxious anticipation. These factors are often intertwined. For example, greater BNST (vs CM) activation during a block of aversive stimuli may reflect either more sustained activation to the stimuli or greater activation due to the anticipation of upcoming stimuli. To further investigate these questions, we had participants (19 females, 9 males) complete a task adapted from a study conducted by Somerville, Whalen and Kelly in 2013, during high-resolution 7-Tesla fMRI BOLD acquisition. We found a larger response to negative vs neutral blocks (sustained threat) than to images (transient) in the BNST, but not the CM. However, in an additional analysis, we also found BNST, but not CM, activation to the onset of the anticipation period on negative vs neutral trials, possibly contributing to BNST activation across negative blocks. Predictability did not affect CM or BNST activation. These results suggest a BNST role in anxious anticipation and highlight the need for further research clarifying the temporal response characteristics of these regions.
43
Monteiro, Ana, Helder Sebastião, and Nuno Silva. "International evidence on stock returns and dividend growth predictability using dividend yields." Revista Contabilidade & Finanças 31, no. 84 (December 2020): 473–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x202009690.
Full textAbstract:
ABSTRACT This paper examines stock returns and dividend growth predictability using dividend yields in seven developed markets: United States of America (US), United Kingdom (UK), Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Altogether, these countries account for around 85% of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index. The use of the long time series with up-to-date data allows the comparison not only between countries, but also across periods, putting into perspective the existence or not of noticeable changes since the 1980’s. The majority of the literature on this topic is US-centered. This emphasis on the US is even more pronounced when it comes to examining the relationship between the dividend unpredictability and dividend smoothing. There is also the need to know if the relationships already documented for the post-Second World War (WWII) period still hold during the last three decades, when stock markets were subjected to a high level of turbulence worldwide. The relationship between dividend yields and returns and dividend growth is central to understand the functioning of capital markets, and has considerable implications for capital asset pricing and investment strategies. Overall, the results show that even for developed capital markets there is no clear pattern on the predictive ability of dividend yields on stock returns and dividend growth, instead these relationships seem to be time-dependent and country-specific. For each country, the predictive ability of the dividend yield is examined in a first-order structural VAR framework by applying bootstrap significance tests and the degree of dividend smoothing is assessed using four partial-adjustment models for the dividend behavior. Additionally, an out-of-sample analysis is conducted using pseudo-R2 and a normal mean squared prediction error (MSPE) adjusted statistic. For the post-WWII period, returns are predictable, but dividends are unpredictable in the US and the UK, while the opposite pattern is observed in Spain and Italy. In Germany, there is some evidence of short-term predictability for both returns and dividends, while in France only returns are predictable. In Japan, neither variable can be forecasted. The dividend smoothing results show that dividends are more persistent in the US and the UK, however, there is no clear connection between dividend smoothness and predictability for the other countries. An important conclusion to retain from the out-of-sample analysis is that the predictability of returns after the WWII, especially present in the US, appeared to have been missing in the last three decades, most probably due to the turmoil experienced by the stock markets during this last period.
44
Guzmán, A. M., and C. H. Amon. "Dynamical flow characterization of transitional and chaotic regimes in converging–diverging channels." Journal of Fluid Mechanics 321 (August 25, 1996): 25–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s002211209600763x.
Full textAbstract:
Numerical investigation of laminar, transitional and chaotic flows in converging–diverging channels are performed by direct numerical simulations in the Reynolds number range 10 < Re < 850. The temporal flow evolution and the onset of turbulence are investigated by combining classical fluid dynamics representations with dynamical system flow characterizations. Modern dynamical system techniques such as timedelay reconstructions of pseudophase spaces, autocorrelation functions, fractal dimensions and Eulerian Lyapunov exponents are used for the dynamical flow characterization of laminar, transitional and chaotic flow regimes. As a consequence of these flow characterizations, it is verified that the transitional flow evolves through intermediate states of periodicity, two-frequency quasi-periodicity, frequency-locking periodicity, and multiple-frequency quasi-periodicity before reaching a non-periodic unpredictable behaviour corresponding to low-dimensional deterministic chaos.Qualitative and quantitative differences in Eulerian dynamical flow parameters are identified to determine the predictability of transitional flows and to characterize chaotic, weak turbulent flows in converging–diverging channels. Autocorrelation functions, pseudophase space representations and Poincaré maps are used for the qualitative identification of chaotic flows, assertion of their unpredictable nature, and recognition of the topological structure of the attractors for different flow regimes. The predictability of transitional flows is determined by analysing the autocorrelation functions and by representing their attractors in the reconstructed pseudophase spaces. The transitional flow behaviour is examined by the geometric visualization of the evolution of the attractors and Poincaré maps until the appearance of a strange attractor at the onset of chaos. Eulerian Lyapunov exponents and fractal dimensions are quantitative parameters to establish the onset of chaos, the persistence of chaotic flow behaviour, and the long-term persistent unpredictability of chaotic Eulerian flow regimes. Lastly, three-dimensional simulations for converging–diverging channel flow are performed to determine the effect of the spanwise direction on the route of transition to chaos.
45
Ananyin, Vladimir, Konstantin Zimin, Mikhail Lugachev, and Rinat Gimranov. "Statistical sustainability of a digital organization." Business Informatics 15, no. 1 (March 31, 2021): 47–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2021.1.47.58.
Full textAbstract:
An important feature of a digital organization is its ability to change rapidly. For an organization to remain capable of rapid change, it must be on the brink of resilience, since a resilient organization always resists change. The article examines the borderline state of the organization, which is on the verge of its stability and instability. In this state, the organization begins to lose predictability in the details of behavior, but still retains predictability in general. The authors called this borderline state the statistical sustainability of the organization. The phenomenon of statistical sustainability of an organization is very similar to the property of stability of the frequency of mass events and average values described in mathematical statistics by a similar term. To analyze the nature of the statistical sustainability of the organization, the authors used the ideas of strange attractors and modes with sharpening from the theory of complex systems. A strange attractor is an area of the organization’s behavior that, outside this area, is an area of stability for the organization, and inside it is an area of complete unpredictability. The theory of complex systems has shown that it is in the regions of strange attractors that the conditions for the variability of systems are created, and the theory of modes with aggravation shows the conditions under which this variability can lead to self-organization, that is, the spontaneous emergence of new structures. This article shows that systematic digitalization objectively leads to the formation of the statistical sustainability of the organization and creates the preconditions for maintaining the organization’s ability to make rapid changes. In traditional management, the statistical sustainability of an organization is viewed as a threat and a source of risk. Therefore, in the context of systematic digitalization, traditional approaches to management should be significantly refined.
46
Rönkä, Anna, Marianne Ekonen, Mia Tammelin, and Leena Turja. "Management in the 24/7-society raises concerns of fairness and social responsibility." Social Responsibility Journal 14, no. 3 (August 6, 2018): 670–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/srj-06-2017-0100.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose Despite the pressure on work-family polices arising from the increase in nonstandard working times in various sectors, only a few studies have addressed management practices in 24/7 workplaces. This paper aims to investigate the challenges Finnish managers face in meeting the various tensions stemming from nonstandard working hours and services operating 24/7. Two typical 24/7 work contexts are focused: the hospitality and retail industries and flexibly scheduled early childhood education and care (ECEC) services. The emphasis is on management practices relating to the planning of work shifts and children’s care schedules. Design/methodology/approach Study 1 comprises focus group interviews with middle managers (N = 20) working in hotels, stores and service stations with restaurants and shopping facilities. Study 2 uses survey data on directors (N = 20) of centers offering flexibly scheduled ECEC services. Findings The results showed that management in 24/7 workplaces raises issues of fairness and social responsibility. Managers in both sectors were faced with constantly varying service demands, leading further to changes and unpredictability in employee working times. Alongside organizational goals, the business managers reported needing to consider employee needs and the ECEC service directors the well-being of parents and children. They also reported seeking the most cost-effective way to deliver services at a time of budget cuts. Research limitations/implications The relatively small sample sizes and non-representative nature of the data restrict the generalizability of the results. Practical implications Service organizations need to design a 24/7 strategy that includes organizational communication and guidelines on fair work scheduling. Key issues in management are finding ways to enhance predictability within unpredictability, discussing the most common ethical problems and developing the skills needed to manage diversity. These are elements that should be included in management training. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature by focusing on seldom studied issues and innovately approached by comparing two work sectors.
47
Jacobi, Claudia Maria, and Yasmine Antonini. "Pollinators and defence of Stachytarpheta glabra (Verbenaceae) nectar resources by the hummingbird Colibri serrirostris (Trochilidae) on ironstone outcrops in south-east Brazil." Journal of Tropical Ecology 24, no. 3 (May 2008): 301–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266467408005051.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract:The production and predictability of nectar resources in a population of Stachytarpheta glabra (Verbenaceae) and their use by insects and hummingbirds on ironstone outcrops in south-east Brazil were investigated. The phenology, density, nectar production, reproductive biology and floral visitors were studied, as well as territory size and daily nectar consumption by its main pollinator, Colibri serrirostris. The plant is abundant in the area, aggregated, and has a long flowering period, with very variable daily flower output. Although it can self-fertilize, it requires a pollen vector. Insect visitors totalled 21 species of bees and lepidopterans, including both pollinators and nectar robbers. Individuals of C. serrirostris defend their territories against other hummingbirds and large insects. Nectar production per hummingbird territory (mean size c. 462 m2) was estimated as 68.6–104 mL d−1 in dense areas at the flowering peak, an amount well above the estimated daily consumption of 13 mL by territory holders. Still, defence of large areas seems necessary to reduce nectar theft and cope with spatial resource unpredictability. Phenological characteristics, high density, and the fact that plants are perennial make S. glabra an attractive resource for nectar-feeders in general, and the main long-lasting nectar source for hummingbirds in the area.
48
Orgogozo, Virginie. "Replaying the tape of life in the twenty-first century." Interface Focus 5, no. 6 (December 6, 2015): 20150057. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2015.0057.
Full textAbstract:
Should the tape of life be replayed, would it produce similar living beings? A classical answer has long been ‘no’, but accumulating data are now challenging this view. Repeatability in experimental evolution, in phenotypic evolution of diverse species and in the genes underlying phenotypic evolution indicates that despite unpredictability at the level of basic evolutionary processes (such as apparition of mutations), a certain kind of predictability can emerge at higher levels over long time periods. For instance, a survey of the alleles described in the literature that cause non-deleterious phenotypic differences among animals, plants and yeasts indicates that similar phenotypes have often evolved in distinct taxa through independent mutations in the same genes. Does this mean that the range of possibilities for evolution is limited? Does this mean that we can predict the outcomes of a replayed tape of life? Imagining other possible paths for evolution runs into four important issues: (i) resolving the influence of contingency, (ii) imagining living organisms that are different from the ones we know, (iii) finding the relevant concepts for predicting evolution, and (iv) estimating the probability of occurrence for complex evolutionary events that occurred only once during the evolution of life on earth.
49
Gilfillan, Sandra L. "An ecological study of a population of Pseudantechinus macdonnellensis (Marsupialia : Dasyuridae) in central Australia. I. Invertebrate food supply, diet and reproductive strategy." Wildlife Research 28, no. 5 (2001): 469. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wr99062.
Full textAbstract:
The invertebrate food supply, diet and reproductive strategy of a population of the dasyurid marsupial, Pseudantechinus macdonnellensis, living in an arid rocky habitat was investigated at a site in the West MacDonnell National Park, Northern Territory, over two and a half years. Invertebrate food supply displayed high month to month predictability and no marked seasonal cycle correlated with temperature. Analysis of faeces indicated that P. macdonnellensis is a generalist insectivore. There was some discrepancy between the pattern revealed by invertebrate sampling and the prey types taken but it was concluded that the invertebrates sampled broadly reflected those available to P. macdonnellensis. Individual females reproduced only once per year; the estimated time of mating was in July–August, and births occurred in September–October. The maximum litter size was six and nearly all females in each season produced a full complement of young. Some males survived and showed spermatorrhea in two breeding seasons and some females survived and produced young in up to three. The seasonal pattern of invertebrate food supply at the study site appeared to be more dependable than that found in studies carried out in arid plains habitats. The difference may result from a microtopographical amelioration in the rocky habitat of the effects of extreme weather conditions that in open, arid habitats are believed to produce increased short-term unpredictability and pronounced, temperature-driven seasonality in food supply. The ameliorating effect may also increase longevity in P. macdonnellensis by reducing density-independent mortality. The monoestrous highly seasonal reproductive strategy in P. macdonnellensis differs from that displayed by most species that inhabit arid plains habitats (the latter are polyoestrous with an extended breeding season). The shortterm predictability in food supply together with a high longevity in P. macdonnellensis may account for its reproductive strategy. The results of this study provide support for the notion that habitat-specific selective pressures in arid environments may favour divergent ecological strategies in functionally similar species.
50
Denil′khanov, A. Kh. "The «Black Swans» of new liberalism." Post-Soviet Issues 6, no. 3 (November 27, 2019): 297–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.24975/2313-8920-2019-6-3-297-307.
Full textAbstract:
The term «Black Swan», which is metaphorically used by the modern American scientist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his theoretical research, means inexplicable randomness of events, their predictability and unpredictability for the expert, but the consequences of which are of great importance. In other words, these are important accidents that, according to N. Taleb, affect the result of the experiment and the course of history. In the Russian state there were many global events, each of which could be described as a «Black Swan». The article analyzes only two of them, which have occurred in modern history and have led to disastrous consequences for both Russia and the world, through the prism of the methodology of historical development and political discourse. The political and ideological platform of these events were the ideas of liberalism, the embodiment of which caused unforeseen, stochastic consequences, which became the object of this study. The author substantiates the conclusion that the intellectual part of the Russian society in the development of new concepts of political and state structure was guided by speculative theories and implemented mental schemes in the absence of real objective and subjective prerequisites, turning these processes into socio-political experiments. In the field of practical policy, according to the author, special attention should be paid to the factor of personal responsibility of actors in the development of political strategy and tactical decision-making.