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1
Polito, Vito, and Mike Wickens. "Optimal monetary policy using an unrestricted VAR." Journal of Applied Econometrics 27, no. 4 (2010): 525–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.1219.
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Poghosyan, Karen. "A Comparison of Different Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting Models: Evidence from Armenia." Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 5, no. 2 (2016): 81–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jcbtp-2016-0012.
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Abstract We evaluate the forecasting performance of four competing models for short-term macroeconomic forecasting: the traditional VAR, small scale Bayesian VAR, Factor Augmented VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models. Using Armenian quarterly actual macroeconomic time series from 1996Q1 – 2014Q4, we estimate parameters of four competing models. Based on the out-of-sample recursive forecast evaluations and using root mean squared error (RMSE) criterion we conclude that small scale Bayesian VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models are more suitable for short-term forecasting than traditional unrestricted VAR model.
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Beyaztas, U., and Abdel-Salam G. Abdel-Salam. "Stationary Bootstrap Based Multi-Step Forecasts for Unrestricted VAR Models." Journal of Data Science 18, no. 4 (2021): 682–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.6339/jds.202010_18(4).0006.
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Kębłowski, Piotr. "Monte Carlo comparison of LCCA- and ML-based cointegration tests for panel var process with cross-sectional cointegrating vectors." Przegląd Statystyczny 65, no. 2 (2019): 173–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.0533.
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Small-sample properties of bootstrap cointegration rank tests for unrestricted panel VAR process are considered when long-run cross-sectional dependencies occur. It is shown that the bootstrap cointegration rank tests for the panel VAR model based on levels canonical correlation analysis are oversized, whereas the bootstrap cointegration rank tests based on maximum likelihood framework are undersized. Moreover, the former tests are in general outperformed by the latter in terms of performance. The results of the investigation indicate that the ML-based bootstrap cointegration rank tests perform well in small samples for small-sized panel VAR models with a few cross-sections.
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Li, Yuanyuan, and Dietmar Bauer. "Modeling I(2) Processes Using Vector Autoregressions Where the Lag Length Increases with the Sample Size." Econometrics 8, no. 3 (2020): 38. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/econometrics8030038.
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In this paper the theory on the estimation of vector autoregressive (VAR) models for I(2) processes is extended to the case of long VAR approximation of more general processes. Hereby the order of the autoregression is allowed to tend to infinity at a certain rate depending on the sample size. We deal with unrestricted OLS estimators (in the model formulated in levels as well as in vector error correction form) as well as with two stage estimation (2SI2) in the vector error correction model (VECM) formulation. Our main results are analogous to the I(1) case: We show that the long VAR approximation leads to consistent estimates of the long and short run dynamics. Furthermore, tests on the autoregressive coefficients follow standard asymptotics. The pseudo likelihood ratio tests on the cointegrating ranks (using the Gaussian likelihood) used in the 2SI2 algorithm show under the null hypothesis the same distributions as in the case of data generating processes following finite order VARs. The same holds true for the asymptotic distribution of the long run dynamics both in the unrestricted VECM estimation and the reduced rank regression in the 2SI2 algorithm. Building on these results we show that if the data is generated by an invertible VARMA process, the VAR approximation can be used in order to derive a consistent initial estimator for subsequent pseudo likelihood optimization in the VARMA model.
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Baranowski, Paweł, Małgorzata Mazurek, Maciej Nowakowski, and Marek Raczko. "Czy dezagregacja indeksu cen poprawia prognozy polskiej inflacji?" Przegląd Statystyczny. Statistical Review 2010, no. 1 (2010): 17–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.59139/ps.2010.01.2.
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This paper examines whether forecasting CPI components improves CPI forecast. We exploit quarterly data for Poland, disaggregated into 12 components. We follow methodology used in previous studies for Euro Area (Hubrich, 2005; Reijer and Vlaar, 2006). AR, MA, TAR and unrestricted VAR models are estimated using recursive sample and aggregated into CPI. Using out-of-sample forecasts, these models are evaluated and compared to the benchmark -- equivalents for aggregate CPI. The evidence is mixed. VAR component-forecast outperform benchmark. Contrary to VAR, for AR and TAR models we do not find substantial gain from using disaggregated data. Results for MA models are not robust. Moreover, it seems that results for AR- and VAR-based forecasts are comparable to consensus forecast.
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Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel, and Christian K. Wolf. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses." Econometrica 89, no. 2 (2021): 955–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ecta17813.
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We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. We discuss several implications: (i) LP and VAR estimators are not conceptually separate procedures; instead, they are simply two dimension reduction techniques with common estimand but different finite‐sample properties. (ii) VAR‐based structural identification—including short‐run, long‐run, or sign restrictions—can equivalently be performed using LPs, and vice versa. (iii) Structural estimation with an instrument (proxy) can be carried out by ordering the instrument first in a recursive VAR, even under noninvertibility. (iv) Linear VARs are as robust to nonlinearities as linear LPs.
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Bação, Pedro, Inês Gaspar, and Marta Simões. "Corruption and Economic Growth: The Case of Portugal." Notas Económicas, no. 49 (December 6, 2019): 11–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/2183-203x_49_2.
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In this paper we investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth in Portugal over the period 1980-2018. The empirical approach makes use of a VAR model inspired by the standard Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function. The VAR model includes the capital stock, hours worked, total factor productivity and the corruption perceptions index (CPI) of Transparency International. The CPI combines several sources of information on the level of corruption in each country. The scale of this index goes from 0, the highest level of corruption, to 10, the lowest level. The magnitude of the estimated effect of corruption on economic growth in the unrestricted VAR model is large (and positive), but statistically not significantly different from zero. However, the results from the estimation of a structural VAR model with economically plausible long-run restrictions indicate modest gains from reducing corruption.
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Masoga, Marius, Thabang Kumalo, Bekithemba Qeqe, and Baneng Naape. "Do Energy Prices drive Inflation in South Africa? An unrestricted VAR Approach." Journal of Applied Economics and Business Studies 6, no. 2 (2022): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.34260/jaebs.621.
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This study was aimed at investigating the effects of energy prices on inflation in South Africa. This was achieved by means of econometric analysis and annual time series data spanning from 1994 to 2020. The findings revealed that electricity tariffs and petrol prices exhibit a positive effect on inflation in South Africa. On the contrary, interest rates and the exchange rate as control variables were found to have a negative effect on the inflation rate. The impulse response function indicated that inflation responds positively to innovations in petrol prices, electricity tariffs and money supply in the medium and long term but responds negatively to innovations in interest rates and exchange rates. Further to this, the variance decomposition function revealed that variations in inflation are largely explained by its own innovations and partially explained by innovations in petrol prices, money supply and interest rates. Lastly, the granger causality analysis showed no evidence of causality between inflation and explanatory variables during the specified period. Given that energy prices place upward pressure on inflation, the study recommends a review of the current fuel and electricity tariff structure to provide the much-needed relief to households and businesses.
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Dejong, David N., and Charles H. Whiteman. "Modeling Stock Prices without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity." Econometric Theory 12, no. 4 (1996): 739–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466600007027.
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In “Modeling Stock Prices without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity” (1994, Econometric Theory 10, 701–719), we used posterior-odds calculations to evaluate restrictions imposed by a present-value model of stock prices across the equations of a VAR representation of stock prices and dividends. The results we reported are tainted by the omission of two factors: the Jacobians induced by the mapping of our priors over VAR parameters β into the restricted sample spaces relevant under hypotheses H2-H4 (hence, tainting our calculations of p(Hi|y,X) in (22) for i = 2–4), and an integrating constant needed in calculating the unrestricted probability p(Hi|y,X) in (22). Table 1 reports our revised calculations, which differ substantively from those reported previously.
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Cavaliere, Giuseppe, Anders Rahbek, and A. M. Robert Taylor. "Bootstrap Determination of the Co-Integration Rank in VAR Models with Unrestricted Deterministic Components." Journal of Time Series Analysis 36, no. 3 (2015): 272–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12104.
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Kapoor, Gaurav, Nuttanan Wichitaksorn, Mengheng Li, and Wenjun Zhang. "Forecasting Half-Hourly Electricity Prices Using a Mixed-Frequency Structural VAR Framework." Econometrics 13, no. 1 (2025): 2. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics13010002.
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Electricity price forecasting has been a topic of significant interest since the deregulation of electricity markets worldwide. The New Zealand electricity market is run primarily on renewable fuels, and so weather metrics have a significant impact on electricity price and volatility. In this paper, we employ a mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) framework where we propose a VAR specification to the reverse unrestricted mixed-data sampling (RU-MIDAS) model, called RU-MIDAS-VAR, to provide point forecasts of half-hourly electricity prices using several weather variables and electricity demand. A key focus of this study is the use of variational Bayes as an estimation technique and its comparison with other well-known Bayesian estimation methods. We separate forecasts for peak and off-peak periods in a day since we are primarily concerned with forecasts for peak periods. Our forecasts, which include peak and off-peak data, show that weather variables and demand as regressors can replicate some key characteristics of electricity prices. We also find the MF-VAR and RU-MIDAS-VAR models achieve similar forecast results. Using the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and random subspace regression as dimension-reduction and variable selection methods helps to improve forecasts where random subspace methods perform well for large parameter sets while the LASSO significantly improves our forecasting results in all scenarios.
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Iortyer, Aondover Dominic, and Mohammed Nasiru. "Impact of Financial Sector Development on Misery Economic Index in Nigeria: A VAR Approach." Social Science and Human Research Bulletin 02, no. 05 (2025): 164–74. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15386073.
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Financial sector development is to address myriad of macroeconomic challenges, thus the study explore the impact of financial sector development on misery economic index in Nigeria from 1980 -2023, The specific objectives are to examine the intertwine impact of financial sector development and misery economic index, in addition to shocks and forcast errors of the variables on each other. Annual time series data used, findings revealed that each variable captured in the unrestricted VAR model exert varying degree of contemporaneous effect on each other. The result also shows the presence of shocks over time in cholesky one standard deviation and varying degrees of forecast. Errors. Based on the findings the study recommends for well-coordinated financial sector reforms that will cursion the surge in inflation and unemployment.
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OYAKHILOMEN, OYINBO, REKWOT G, and ADEGBOYE G ATIM. "Relationship of agricultural production and agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund in nigeria: a causality analysis." Journal of Management and Science 1, no. 1 (2013): 100–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.26524/jms.2013.13.
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This study was carried out to examine the causality of agricultural production and the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund(ACGSF) in Nigeria. ADF unit root test, unrestricted VAR and granger causality test were employed in the analysis of the dataset and result showed that there is no causality between agricultural production and value of agricultural credit guaranteed but a unidirectional causality from agricultural production to the number of agricultural credit guaranteed existed. This implies that we can better predict the outcome of agricultural production in Nigeria using the past values of the number of agricultural credit guaranteed.
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Clatterbuck, Wayne K., and John D. Hodges. "Development of cherrybark oak and sweet gum in mixed, even-aged bottomland stands in central Mississippi, U.S.A." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 18, no. 1 (1988): 12–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x88-003.
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Development of even-aged mixed cherrybark oak (Quercusfalcata var. pagodifolia Ell.) and sweet gum (Liquidambarstyraciflua L.) stands was examined over a range of stand densities and ages in minor river bottoms of central Mississippi, U.S.A. Two stand development patterns were documented based on average spacing between dominant and codominant trees during the pole stage of development: a "restricted" pattern and an "unrestricted" pattern. The restricted pattern occurred at average spacings of less than 5.5 m. Here cherrybark oak was initially shorter than sweet gum but was able to outgrow and stratify above sweet gum when the stand was 20 to 25 years of age. Dominant and codominant cherrybark oaks averaged 61 cm in diameter, 34 m in height, and had 15 m of merchantable height at 58 years. The unrestricted pattern was found where cherrybark oak was either a few years older than sweet gum or was essentially open grown, with dominant and codominant trees of either species being more than 5.5 m apart. The unrestricted pattern resulted in cherrybark oak attaining less than 8 m of clear merchantable length and diameters of 56 cm in 40 years. The spacing of interacting trees appears to be responsible for the differences between the two development patterns in the timing and rate of cherrybark oak crown expansion, diameter growth, and length of the merchantable bole.
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Hin/David Ho, Kim, and Kwame Addae-Dapaah. "Real estate market cyclical dynamics." International Journal of Managerial Finance 10, no. 2 (2014): 241–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijmf-10-2013-0108.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international cities of Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The authors find four key outcomes. One, the real estate cycle is generally different from the underlying business cycle in local markets for the cities studies. Two, the real estate cycle is more exaggerated in the construction and development areas than in rents and vacancies. Three, the vacancy cycle tends to lead the rental cycle. And four, new construction completions tend to peak when vacancy is also peaking. The authors believe that future research should try to help understand the linkages that drive these outcomes. For example, are rigidities in the local permit and construction markets responsible for the link between construction peaks and vacancy peaks? Design/methodology/approach – Real estate market cyclical dynamics and its estimation via VAR model offers an insightful set of practical and empirical models. It affirms a comprehensive theoretical underpinning for analysing the prime office and residential sectors of the capitol cities of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast developing Asia region. Its unrestricted form also provides an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, furnished by real estate market data providers. Findings – The office rental VAR model for Singapore (SOR), KL (KOR) and HK (HOR) show good fits. In the HOR model, rents and vacancies are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with rents themselves. The office CV VAR model for Singapore (SOCV), KL (KOCV) and HK (HOCV) show good fits. In the HOCV model, capital values (CVs) and initial yields are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with CVs themselves. Impulse response functions specified for seven years to mirror a medium-term real estate market cycle “die out” to zero for the stationary VAR models that are estimated for the endogenous variables. The accumulated responses asymptote to some non-zero constant. Practical implications – The VAR model offers a complete and meaningful dynamic system of solely real estate variables for international real estate investors and policy makers in decision making. Its unrestricted form offers an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, which can be reliably provided by a dedicated real estate information and consultancy provider of international standing. Originality/value – The theoretical model offers a complete dynamic model system of the real estate space market, comprising a unique system of six linked equations that denote the relationship among supply, demand, construction, vacancy and rent over time, inclusive of price response slopes and lags. The VAR model enables the investigation of the effect of the lagged values of all the variables concerned. It also enables the explicit and rigorous quantitative forecasts of say rents and CVs when the rest of the variable can be forecasted beforehand.
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Dr., Reena Dogra, and Kimta Aprajita. "Relationship between MSME Output, Exports and Economic Growth in India: An Econometric Study." International Journal of Management and Economics Invention 11, no. 03 (2025): 3966–73. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14965326.
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ABSTRACT : The MSME sector has emerged as a key pillar of the Indian economy, playing a vital role in the country’s economic development through its significant contributions to output, exports, and employment. This study examines the causal links between MSME output, MSME exports, total exports, and India's GDP using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and the Granger causality test. The Johansen-Juselius test results reveal no strong evidence of a long-term cointegrating relationship among the variables. However, the Granger causality test, based on an unrestricted VAR model with first-differenced data, identifies bidirectional causality between GDP and MSME exports and between MSME exports and total exports.
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Basarir, Çagatay, and Mehmet Emin Erçakar. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Crude Oil Prices, Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rates: Turkish Experiment." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 11 (2016): 48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n11p48.
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In this study, the effect of raw oil prices and exchange rates on current account deficit of the Turkish Economy has been examined by investigating the short and long run relationship between the current account deficit of the Turkish Economy, raw oil prices (Brent oil prices) and exchange rates (USD/TRY). The Monthly Data between December 1991 and January 2016 were used in the study. The relationships between the variables were tested with the VAR (Vector Auto Regressive) Model. None of the series was found stable after the unit root tests, but it was observed that all the variables became stable when their first differences were taken. Firstly, an unrestricted VAR model was built to determine the long term relationship between the variables. After the long term relationship was found between the variables, the VECM (Vector Error Correction) Model was estimated in order to determine the short term relationship. A mutual granger causality relationship is detected between crude oil prices and current account deficit variables. No causality relationship is found between the other variables.
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Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro. "An Assessment of the Usefulness of Money for Policy in the Philippines." Asian Economic Papers 5, no. 1 (2006): 142–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/asep.2006.5.1.142.
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This study assesses the usefulness of money for policy in the Philippines. The basic idea behind the use of monetary aggregates for policy is that observed fluctuations in money anticipate movements in the ultimate objective of monetary policy, such as inflation control. The paper examines the stability of key empirical relationships, including the behavior of velocity and the presence of cointegrating relationships among money and variables of interest to policymakers. In general, results indicate that the stability of velocity and the presence of cointegrating relationships lend some limited support to the potential usefulness of money for policy. The ability of money to predict inflation is examined using Granger causality tests and an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) that examines the relative contribution of innovations in money to the variance of the forecast errors in inflation. In general, money's ability to predict inflation is less clear-cut and seems to be dependent on the ordering and lag lengths of the variables used in the VAR and the definition of money used.
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Jesson, Rey F. Sabado, Rose R. Tagalog Jezyl, L. Sarmiento Ellieza, and B. Gaquit Arabella. "The Effects of Government Borrowing to Investment Growth of the Country." JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, FINANCE AND MANAGEMENT STUDIES 07, no. 02 (2024): 1273–84. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10695251.
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Government borrowing has emerged as one significant method that helps in mobilization of resources for economic growth especially in emerging economics. Most governments in developing economies resort to borrowing as a way of financing budget deficit. This paper identifies the effects of government borrowing to investment growth in the Philippines. Specifically, it presented the trend of gross domestic product, internal debt, and external debt from 1990-2020. The study used Johansen Co-integration, Granger Causality, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to analyze this study. Johansen’s Co-integration analysis revealed that the gross domestic product (GDP), internal debt (ID), and external debt (ED) are rejected at a 5% significant level and showing that all relevant variables have a long-term relationship and the data are co-integrated. On the other hand, unrestricted VAR model, there exist a relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), internal debt (ID), and external debt (ED). The Granger Causality test result revealed the direction of the causal relationship between independent and dependent variables; gross domestic product, internal debt, and external debt at the 5% significant level.
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Ogbanje, Elaigwu Christopher and Ihemezie, Eberechukwu Johnpaul. "IMPACT OF BROAD MONEY AND EXCHANGE RATE ON AGRICULTURAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: AN UNRESTRICTED VAR MODEL APPROACH." Journal of Agripreneurship and Sustainable Development 4, no. 4 (2021): 115–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.59331/jasd.v4i4.262.
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Expansionary monetary policy is a major driver of economic changes via money supply. Broad money, which represents total money supply in an economy, has several economic impacts. The study examines the impact of broad money (MS2) and exchange rate (XR) on agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) in Nigeria. Secondary data from 1981 to 2018were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Autoregression model were employed. Broad money had a large coefficient of variation. Variables were stationary at the first difference, supported by a spurious regression of d1lnagdp on d1lnms2 and d1lnxr whose R2 (0. 2411) was greater than Durbin Watson statistics (1.889914). Johansen's Co-integration test rules out the long-run relationship. Using the AGDP model of the VAR, the result shows that the chi2 statistic (16687.39) is statistically significant (P<0.01), with an R2 of 0.9978. Ms2 and XR have coefficients of 0.3389 and 0.2502, respectively, with statistically significant (P<0.01) and z-statistics of 3.92 and 5.44, respectively. The findings suggest increased broad money for increased agricultural gross domestic product. An increase in the exchange rate should be adopted for an increased agricultural gross domestic product but with caution to forestall the trade-off effect on inflation.
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Inuwa, Abdulrazak, Mohammed A. M. Usman, and Abdullahi Jauro Mohammed. "An Analysis of the Effect of Naira Devaluation on Nigerian Balance Of Trade." INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 8, no. 1 (2023): 1–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.56201/ijefm.v8.no1.2023.pg1.29.
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This study investigates the effect of naira devaluation on Nigerian balance of trade using time series data from 1986 to 2021. The study examined the long run and short-run equilibrium relationship between devaluation and trade balance over the study period. The study used unrestricted Vector Auto Regression (VAR), Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) technique in the analysis of data. The variables currency devaluation (CDV), Export rate (EXPT), Import rate (IMPT) and Trade balance are found to be 1(1) variables, while Interest rate (INTR) is found to be 1(0) variables. Based on the VAR Co- integration test result, it indicates long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The error correction term was correctly signed and statistically significant. The estimates from the VAR model showed both positive and negative shocks running from naira devaluation to trade balance, export rate, import rate and currency devaluation based on the past and current values. The study concluded that, naira devaluation have positive and significant impact on trade balance of Nigeria. The study recommended that, Government should improve this indigenous innovation to meet up with international standard as a means to reduce dependence on import and encourage production of competitive goods and services, as export becomes cheaper after devaluation, it is expected that Nigeria as a country will immensely improve on its exported goods and increase the output of exportable goods which will leads to favorable balance of trade among others.
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Oyeleke, Olusola Joel, and Monica Adele Orisadare. "Relative Importance of Public Debts and Money Growth on Inflation in Nigeria." International Journal of Economics and Finance 10, no. 7 (2018): 99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n7p99.
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This paper investigates the relative importance of public debts and money growth on inflation in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015. Annual secondary data collected from World Development Indicators were used for the analysis. After examining the behaviour of the time series, Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) technique of estimation is employed with a view to determining whether inflation is a monetary or fiscal phenomenon in Nigeria. The results show that, both in the short and long run, public debts accounts for a sizeable percentage in the variation of inflation rather than growth in monetary supply, making inflation a fiscal phenomenon in Nigeria. We therefore recommend that the attainment of fiscal solvency would be more effective in achieving price stability in Nigeria.
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Gyamerah, Samuel Asante, Bright Emmanuel Owusu, and and Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi. "Modelling the mean and volatility spillover between green bond market and renewable energy stock market." Green Finance 4, no. 3 (2022): 310–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/gf.2022015.
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<abstract><p>In this paper,we investigate the mean and volatility spillover between the price of green bonds and the price of renewable energy stocks using daily price series from 02/11/2011 to 31/08/2021. The unrestricted trivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model is employed to examine potential causality,mean,and volatility spillover effects from the green bond market to the renewable energy stock market and vice-versa. The results from the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model indicate that there exists a uni-directional Granger causality from renewable energy stock prices to green bond prices. While the price of green bonds is positively influenced by its own lagged values and the lagged values of renewable energy stock prices,only the past price value of renewable energy stocks has a positive effect on the current price value. We identified a uni-directional volatility spillover from renewable energy stock prices to green bond prices. However,there was no shock spillover from both sides of the market. This research shows that investors in the green bond market should always consider information from the renewable energy stock market because of the causal link between renewable energy stocks and green bonds.</p></abstract>
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Li, Xiangfa, Zhe Zhang, Weixian Xue, and Hua Wang. "The Effects of Household Debt and Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in the Shadow of the Pandemic." Sustainability 14, no. 22 (2022): 15140. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142215140.
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In a sample of 34 countries during 1965Q2 to 2021Q3, this paper offers an empirical analysis of how household debt and oil price shocks influence economic growth in the shadow of the pandemic. We exploit the quarter lags inherent in the response of debt and the oil price to output to pin down the relationship between household debt, the oil price, and economic growth in an unrestricted panel VAR model. We find that household debt has a short-term positive impact on economic growth, and this impact is lagged, while oil price shocks have a negative effect on economic growth. Pandemic uncertainty has an obvious and positive effect on household debt, while it has an obvious and negative effect on economic growth and oil price. The results hold under several robustness tests.
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IGWE LAZARUS ONYEBUCHI, IGWE LAZARUS ONYEBUCHI. "Credit Supply Shocks and Macroeconomics Dynamics in Nigeria." Journal of Research in Business and Management 13, no. 5 (2025): 93–98. https://doi.org/10.35629/3002-13059398.
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The impact of credit supply shocks on macroeconomic dynamics have generated a lot of interest among macroeconomist over the years. This study investigates the response of real gross domestic product, monetary policy rate and consumer price index to shocks in credit supply in Nigeria. Quarterly data ranging from 1984 to 2022 was employed to estimate the specified model. An unrestricted VAR model was employed to capture the objectives of the study and the resulting impulse response was calibrated. Evidence from the impulse response indicate that shocks to credit supply negatively affects real GDP in Nigeria when observed across 10 quarters. It however, leads to positive changes in the consumer price index in the same time period. On the other hand we observe that monetary policy rate reacts positively to shocks in credit supply
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Lazarus Onyebuchi, Mr IGWE, and Prof Barr C. U Ugwuanyi. "Credit Supply Shocks and Macroeconomics Dynamics in Nigeria." Journal of Research in Environmental and Earth Sciences 11, no. 6 (2025): 20–25. https://doi.org/10.35629/2532-11062025.
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The impact of credit supply shocks on macroeconomic dynamics have generated a lot of interest among macroeconomist over the years. This study investigates the response of real gross domestic product, monetary policy rate and consumer price index to shocks in credit supply in Nigeria. Quarterly data ranging from 1984 to 2022 was employed to estimate the specified model. An unrestricted VAR model was employed to capture the objectives of the study and the resulting impulse response was calibrated. Evidence from the impulse response indicate that shocks to credit supply negatively affects real GDP in Nigeria when observed across 10 quarters. It however, leads to positive changes in the consumer price index in the same time period. On the other hand we observe that monetary policy rate reacts positively to shocks in credit supply.
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Ogneru, Victor, Oana Mădălina Popescu, and Stelian Stancu. "Relationship between VAT Revenue and Intermediate Consumption - A VAR Approach." Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics 1, no. 1 (2019): 355–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/icas-2019-0031.
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Abstract The paper analyzes the relationship between value added tax revenue and intermediate consumption in the case of Romania in the period January 2007 – September 2018 (quarterly data), using an unrestricted Vector Autoregression Model based on the rate of dynamic taxation’s level (in terms of value added tax revenue) and the rate of dynamic intermediate consumption. In literature, is questioned only the relationship between tax revenue and gross domestic product. Our study emphasizes the link between tax revenue and parts of the own tax base. The relationship is questioned in both directions, namely with respect to the manner in which value added tax affect intermediate consumption and in terms of the influence of intermediate consumption on value added tax revenue in the case of Romania. Given that a significant part of the corporate taxpayers have left the value added tax regime, intermediate consumption is considered instead of final consumption. The analysis is focused on a specific relationship in order to assess the general impact of indirect taxation on production capacity of the undertakings. Our findings reveal that there is not a direct relationship between intermediate consumption and value added tax revenue at the level of Romania despite a such relationship at the EU-28 level. Moreover, in the case of Romania a high volatility of intermediate consumption was found. Both the breakage between tax revenue and his tax base, and volatility of the tax base suggest an influence of hidden economy. For future concerns about tax policy development, a specific model for estimating and forecasting value added tax revenue should be developed for Romania. On the other hand, based on the findings of this study, a model can be developed to assess the impact of the hidden economy on the value added tax revenue.
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Althaqafi, Mohammad. "The Impact of Natural Gas Prices on Electricity Tariffs in the UK." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 13, no. 2 (2023): 86–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13908.
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The study was conducted to know the impact of natural gas prices on electricity tariffs in the UK. Although the United Kingdom doesn’t rely directly on Russian gas supplies, still, we are acutely vulnerable to the energy catastrophe that has resulted from the invasion of Ukraine. The UK is part of the European Union and that is a reason the UK energy tariff and natural gas prices are closely connected to the EU. The literature review will elaborate more on the impact of the natural gas price on electricity tariffs in the UK by using an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The historical data on natural gas prices have been collected from the official government website of the UK and from the ofgem website. The sample size was taken annually from January 2010 to August 2020. Our empirical study is close to (Mohammadi, 2009) who investigate the nexus between electricity prices and fossil fuel prices in the U.S economy.
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Mahmud, Ashique, and Ataul Gani Osmani. "Investigating the relationship between CO2 emission and industrial production of bangladesh through the unrestricted vector auto regression methods." Journal of Management and Science 11, no. 2 (2021): 25–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.26524/jms.11.11.
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Industrial production units discharge large amounts of CO2 as manufacturing facilities directly use fossil fuels and more electricity than any other sector. Although the per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in the developing countries, this study is aimed at analyzing the long-run association between CO2 emissions and industrial production in Bangladesh using an Unrestricted Vector Auto Regression approach. For this purpose, the study uses secondary data for the periods of 1960 to 2016 from world development indicators. The variables of interest are co2 emission and industrial production. In general CO2 data are measured in metric tons per capita and the industrial production index is used as the proxy of industrial production. Other econometric techniques, such as unit root test-ADF, Johanson Co-integration test, and OLS techniques are also applied. Firstly, a descriptive analysis finds that there has been a rapid fall in industrial output and co2 emission in 1971 which can be denoted as an adverse effect of the Independence war of Bangladesh. Despite that, industrial production and co2 emission are intended to increase at a positive slope till 2016. But the increasing rate of industrial production is significantly higher than the increasing rate of co2 emission in Bangladesh. Secondly, the Johanson Co-integration test results reveal that there is no long-run relationship between industrial production and CO2 emission in Bangladesh. But the results from Unrestricted VAR and Ordinary Least Square estimation confirm that CO2 emission one period lag has a negative and significant impact on the industrial production of Bangladesh, where the value of the coefficient is -16.01059. This means that if in the last year, co2 emission increased by 1 metric ton per capita, industrial production will be decreased by 16% in the current period. The study concludes that Bangladesh is running conscious industrial production considering energy conservation policies.
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Umaru, Shehu, and Sunday Gandu. "IMPACT OF CAPITAL FLIGHT ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA." International Journal of Operational Research in Management, Social Sciences, and Education 8, no. 1 (2022): 22–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.48028/iiprds/ijormsse.v8.i1.02.
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Capital flight has continued to generate debate across the world. Most developing countries Nigeria in particular are having their own share of the problem. This are burning issues regarding its actual measurement and direction of flow. This study is set to examine the effect of capital flight on economic development in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020. Due to the stochastic nature of time series data, diagnostic tests were conducted to ascertain the behavior of the series. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) test results are reported. Based on these tests, the all the variables in the model became stationary after first differencing, that is, they are integrated of order one I(1). Because of this order of integration, the Johansen co-integration test was conducted to check for possible long run relationship. Due to the absence of long-run relationship, unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was specified and used for the estimation. Results from the VAR estimation reveal that Poverty is an increasing function of poverty. There is a negative impact of capital flight on economic development in Nigeria over the period of study. External debt is detrimental to economic development if mismanaged. Floating exchange rate where multiple rates are charged in different markets is detrimental to economic development in Nigeria over the period of study. This paper recommended that training in skill acquisition should be encouraged in Nigeria in order to alleviate poverty. Capital flight should be checked with serious penalties on the perpetrators. In addition, external debt should be channel to economic uses. And finally floating exchange rates where different rates are charged in different markets is should be abolished in Nigeria.
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Bede Okeoma, OKOYE, and OBI Kenneth Onyebuchi. "Nexus between Public Debts, Poverty and Unemployment Rates in Nigeria: A Vector AutoRegression (VAR) Approach." International Journal of Management Studies and Social Science Research 04, no. 06 (2023): 116–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.56293/ijmsssr.2022.4532.
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Notwithstanding the upsurge in public debts, it is absurd and worrisome to note that socioeconomic indicators like poverty and unemployment have shown gloomy pictures in Nigeria. The absurd situation makes it unclear on the precise nexus between public debts and unemployment rate on the one hand and poverty rate on the other hand. Consequently, this paper analysed the nexus between public debts, poverty and unemployment in Nigeria. Secondary data of public debts (measured by internal and external debts), poverty and unemployment rates were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics during the period 1981-2021. Using an unrestricted vector auto-regression model, the study indicated that neither internal nor external debts had any significant impact on poverty; however, they influence the level of unemployment rates in Nigeria. Impliedly, most of the public debts incurred within the period of investigation were not growth-oriented and could partly be explained by the fact that most of the borrowings were mainly to finance trade deficits, which were mainly consumable goods. The paper recommended that the current debt-togross domestic product ratio of less than 20 percent should be sustained to ensure that debt remains within the internationally recommended threshold for developing economies like Nigeria. Also, future public borrowings should be targeted at specified productive sectors of the economy that would engender growth in the long-run in terms of job creation and poverty alleviation; this can be achieved via the procedure of tying every public borrowing to specific growth-driving project that are oriented towards job creation and alleviation of poverty
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Abubakar, Alhassan, and Salifu Arogba Sunday. "Effect of Irvingia gabonensis var. wombolu kernel powder and oil on serum protein profile and enzymatic activities of Wistar albino rat." GSC Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences 21, no. 2 (2022): 172–79. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7652776.
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<em>Irvingia gabonensis </em>Kernel powder and the oil extracts (±testa) were mixed with commercial animal feed (50:50)and fed to groups of animals. Animals in groups A and B were fed with the powder at an equivalent concentration of 67mg/kg body weightwhile those in groups C and D were fed with the equivalent4ml of the oil extract in the mixture. Animals in group E, the control, were fed on the commercial feed only. All the animals were fed in an aluminum cage for 21 days and sacrificed the following day. Blood from the jugular vein was collected in universal bottles and used for determination of protein and enzymatic profiles of these animals. Groups A and B showed appreciable elevation of albumin. Elevated transaminases were indicative of early signs of liver damage. The observation was attributed principally to the phytochemical component of the testa present in these sample types A and C fed to the animals under the restricted dietary laboratory condition. The study has shown that under unrestricted dietary condition, incorporation of <em>Irvingia gabonensis </em>kernel in animal feed had beneficial effects.
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Avram, Alexandru, Flavia Maria Barna, Miruna Lucia Năchescu, Costin Daniel Avram, and Roxana Loredana Avram. "Responsible Governance and the Sustainability of Populist Public Policies. The Implications of Wage-Led Growth Strategy in Romania." Sustainability 12, no. 7 (2020): 2975. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12072975.
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In the present paper, we focus on the macroeconomic implications of the populist public policies and in particular on the effects of wage led growth strategy, which started to be applied in Romania from January 2017. Such a study is important as a practical example of applying this particular wage related public policy and sets the premises for analyzing its sustainability and its macroeconomic implications and costs. For analyzing the implications of the wage-led growth strategy upon the sustainability of macroeconomic variables, we have used an unrestricted VAR (vector auto regressive) and compared the effect of the impulse response functions with the recent evolutions of the Romanian economy. Thus, we have observed the effect of the wage led growth strategy, by using the average wage, trade deficit, number of employees, inflation rate, labor productivity, and minimum wage as variables. Our study shows that the wage-led growth policy had a strong positive impact on the number of employees and on inflation, increasing it, but a negative impact on productivity. In addition, we have seen a strong positive impact on increasing the trade deficit. These particular evolutions have left the Romanian economy with almost no fiscal and monetary space of maneuver in the face of the exogenous shock produced by the pandemic.
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Huo, Teles, and Miguel St. Aubyn. "Electricity, Exergy and Economic Growth in Mozambique." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 12, no. 4 (2022): 439–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13245.
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Electricity consumption and economic growth attracted the attention of researchers in several countries. Mozambique have few studies on this matter and non-related to useful exergy. This paper analyses the relationship between final electricity consumption, useful exergy and economic growth in Mozambique, from 1971 to 2014. The final electricity consumption data are expressed in GWh, from International Energy Agency database, which for Mozambique (until the date of writing) cover the period from 1971 to 2014. For this analysis an unrestricted VAR models were estimated to capture different types of effects, which are particularly important for an economy that underwent diverse phases and restructuring processes. Results indicate that there was a huge increase in final electricity consumption, from 2000 and 2001. Modelling with final electricity consumption and with useful energy illustrated that economic growth in Mozambique has not been influenced by final electricity consumption and useful exergy. However, economic growth induces final electricity consumption and useful exergy growth. The results suggests that sectors that induce economic growth in Mozambique are the least electricity intensive ones. The Police implications is that electricity access of those sectors that induce economic growth should be enhanced to keep them more competitive, and to sustain the growth.
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Usman, Mohammed A. M., Bawuro Mohammed Buba, Nuru Mohammed Arabo, and Adamu Jibrilla. "Analysis of the Impact of Remittance Inflows on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria." INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 7, no. 5 (2023): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.56201/ijefm.v7.no5.2022.pg1.20.
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This study investigated the impact of remittances on economic growth of Nigeria using time series data from 1986 to 2018 by examining the long -run and short-run equilibrium relationship between remittances and economic growth. The study used unrestricted Vector Auto regression (VAR), granger causality, Auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL), impulse response function and variance decomposition. The result of ARDL bound test, indicates the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between remittance inflows and economic growth in Nigeria. The impulse response function, as well as variance decomposition result shows the mixture of both positive and negative shocks from GDP per capita to remittance, household consumption expenditure, foreign direct investment and official development assistance based on the past and current values. The study found the existence of unidirectional causality running from GDP per capita to remittances and foreign direct investment. The study recommends that, government should expand and improve the financial sector and make the process of transfer of remittance much easier and less expensive. This will enable the economy to capture remittance inflows that comes in through informal channels which are usually difficult to capture officially, and also remittances inflows need to be invested into productive sector. This is because without such investment the inflows cannot play any significant role in the economy particularly households that do receive remittance.
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Azizi Kouchaksaraei, Meysam, Hamed Movahedizadeh, and Hoda Mohammadalikhani. "Determinant of the Relationship between Natural Gas Prices and Leading Natural Gas Countries’ Stock Exchange." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 4 (2016): 246. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n4p246.
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<p>Over the recent decades, natural sources of energy have become an interesting topic to investigate for researchers. Sources of energy play a crucial role in all industrial segments such as export revenue, exchange rate and stock market. One of the major sources is natural gas which its price affects many countries’ economy. This paper investigates the effect of natural gas price on the three leading natural gas exporting countries’ stock market: Russia, Norway and Qatar. This paper employs monthly data observations including natural gas price and stock exchange market index on Russia, Norway and Qatar from January 2005 to November 2013. This study uses Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) to apply Granger Causality test, Impulse Response functions and Variance Decomposition. Findings show that there are two-way causality relationship between natural gas prices and stock exchanges of Russia and Norway, though natural gas prices affected Russia stock exchange index at 10% significance level and Norway stock exchange index at 5% significance. However, there is not causality relationship between Qatar stock exchange and natural gas prices. Moreover, outcomes of impulse response function present that natural gas price shock does not have significant impact on all three countries’ stock exchange. The variance decomposition test also reinforces the results from impulse response function since Russia, Norway and Qatar’s stock exchange variance are not significantly due to natural gas price.</p>
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Kamisan, Nur Arina Bazilah, Siti Mariam Norrulashikin, Kamaruzaman Mohamed, Nur Amirah Buliah, and Zainuddin Ahmad. "Malaysia’s Development Expenditure Effects on Gross Domestic Product by Using VECM Approach." Journal of Statistical Modelling and Analytics 6, no. 2 (2024): 1–13. https://doi.org/10.22452/josma.vol6no2.3.
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The provision of public goods and services to citizens is a significant responsibility of the government. The products include schools, hospitals, roads, and other infrastructure. This investment is essential to stimulate economic growth, create job opportunities, and improve living standards. The effect of development spending on economic growth has been shown in a significant amount of existing literature. However, there are still various opinions on the impact level of development spending on economic growth. Therefore, the goal of our research is to investigate the link between Malaysia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Development Expenditure (DE) based on the long-run and short-run vector error correction model (VECM) approach. The findings show that the long-term impact of GDP on development spending is positive, according to the results of the Johansen co-integration test. The long-run VECM also shows a positive correlation between GDP and government spending on development. Development spending and lag one GDP are negatively correlated. The short-run VECM shows a positive correlation between GDP and GDP lag. Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) demonstrates that government spending on development has no discernible impact on GDP. According to the impulse response function (IRF) study, a GDP shock first has a negative effect on development spending before having a positive reaction. Although GDP might not be a strong indicator of DE in the near run, it becomes increasingly apparent over longer time frames, emphasizing the intricate relationship between macroeconomic factors and fiscal policy.
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Tumaini, J. W., and K. M. Bwana. "Export And Economic Growth in Tanzania: Co-Integration and Causality Analysis." AFRICAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED RESEARCH 11, no. 1 (2025): 814–24. https://doi.org/10.26437/ajar.v11i1.883.
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Purpose: This study examines the co-integration and causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania using time series data from 1998 to 2018. Design/Methodology/Approach: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was employed to measure economic growth, while exports of all products (from agricultural, industrial, and mineral products) were extracted from country trade statistics and employed as the independent variables. Data analysis was done after some tests, such as stationary tests, co-integration, regression analysis, and Granger causality. The stationary test result suggested using unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis, followed by the Granger causality test. Findings: It revealed that those exports significantly influence Tanzania’s economic growth, which implies that an increase in exports provides the market for domestically produced goods and services and thus promotes more production and economic growth. The study further confirms that economic growth does not significantly influence exports from the country. However, it was further revealed that the causality between export and economic growth is not bi-directional. Research Limitation: Historical data may not reflect current economic conditions. Hence, there were restricted degrees of freedom when adopting complex modelling. Practical Implication: Promoting more exports will encourage domestic producers to increase production, eventually fuel economic growth. Social Implication: The study recommends that policymakers develop strategies for increasing the diversity of exported products and local production capacity. Originality/Value: The novelty lies in integrating Granger causality testing with cointegration analysis for Tanzania's trade context. These novelty aspects contribute to methodological advancement and practical understanding of Tanzania's economic dynamics, providing valuable insights for policy formulation and future research.
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Siminica, Marian, Marioara Avram, Luminița Popescu, and Roxana Loredana Avram. "The Adoption of National Green Procurement Plans from the Perspective of Circular Economy." Amfiteatru Economic 22, no. 53 (2020): 15–27. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13365990.
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The tendency of depletion of non-renewable resources and the environment's continuous degradation have been considered in the last centuries acceptable as side effects for achieving the economic growth and satisfying the human needs in the conditions of demographic growth following an upward trend. An adequate response to all these challenges is related to increasing the share of green GDP in total GDP, to green procurement and to the large-scale promotion of circular economy. At EU level, there are appropriate legislation and programs and packages aimed at implementing green procurement and the circular economy. There are also "prize-winner" countries that have adopted National Green Procurement Plans before they became mandatory, countries that have found it harder to adopt this type of plans, but also countries that have not adopted National Green Procurement Plans such as Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Luxembourg and Romania. The article focuses on an analysis of the impact of national green procurement plans adoption on circular economy in the European Union member states for the period 2007-2018, with the help of an unrestricted VAR panel (PVAR), based on three hypotheses according to which the impact of these plans' adoption is positive on economic growth, CO2 emissions and circular economy. Data taken from Eurostat and processed using E-Views 9 econometric software allowed the validation of research hypotheses, confirming the positive impact of the adoption and implementation of green procurement national plans on some significant indicators characterizing the circular economy, which is likely to encourage the generalization of concerns regarding the adoption of coherent public policies in all Member States.
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Garba, M., M. A. Dandago, E. C. Igwe, and K. D. Salami. "A review on microbiological safety of Ready-To-Eat Salads." Dutse Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences 7, no. 4a (2022): 38–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/dujopas.v7i4a.4.
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Eating of road side ready-to-eat (RTE) salads that is made with green leafy vegetables (GLVs) commonly lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata) or Cress (Lepidium sativum Linn.) as the key constituents coupled with adding tomatoes, sliced onions, cucumber, groundnut cake and so on has been reported to cause severe safety threats owing to its being extremely disposed to microbiologically inclined contamination, thereby leading to a public health issue. Pathogenic microorganisms pollute salads as a result of mishandling of raw vegetables, during preparation of salads and also associated environment. Soils typically harbor abundant microorganisms, some of which are human pathogens such as B. cereus, Clostridium botulinum, C. perfringens, Listeria monocytogenes and Aeromonas. Birds are carriers of pathogens such as E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella and Campylobacter. Reptiles and arthropods are usually in cultivation fields, and therefore have unrestricted access to produce and many bacterial species have evolved to exploit these animals as hosts or vectors. Insect deterioration creates openings that aid the ingress of pathogens into inner plant tissues, thereby enhancing colonization of spoilage and pathogenic bacteria on produce. Not only animals, similarly people working with the vegetables produce are known to be a source and direct contact vector of microorganisms. Hence this type of food is regarded as potential vehicles of food borne illnesses resulting in large and serious national and international outbreaks. Thus, the essence of this study is to review the safety of the RTE vegetable salads, assessing the contamination level of the most prevalent pathogenic microorganisms. RTE salads can be contaminated with different types of foodborne pathogens from farm-to-fork that makes them unsafe for human consumption. Regulatory bodies should design periodic workshop training for RTE food hawkers to help fix the problems and enhance the effectiveness of RTE vegetables salads preparation. Public awareness on the serious health risk associated with mishandled or poorly prepared minimally processed RTE foods most especially vegetable salads should be considered.
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Ugwu, Ephraim, and Emma-Ebere Obiajulu. "AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY, COMMODITY PRICES AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA, 1980-2015." Oradea Journal of Business and Economics 3, no. 1 (2018): 17–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.47535/1991ojbe032.
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This study evaluates the interaction between monetary policy, commodity prices and inflation in Nigeria using an unrestricted Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model and Cointegration test approaches from1980 to 2015. The study utilizes data on monetary policy rate (MPR), commodity product export (CPE), rate of inflation (INF), industrial production (INDP) and oil price (OILP) for analysis. The descriptive statistics result for the variables under consideration indicates that all the variables have positive mean values with 36 observations. The Unit root test result indicates that all the variables are stationary and are integrated of order one at 5% level of significance. The cointegration test result indicates at most two cointegrating equations. The impulse response function results indicates that the response of the INF to one standard innovation is positive to its own shock in the short run, it fluctuates and became stable with positive trend along the horizon in the long run. The response of the INF to one standard innovation in the CPE indicates a lower response of negative shock in the initial period with fluctuation, then stabilizes in the long run. The response of the INF to one standard innovation in MPR shows a fluctuation in the short run, but steadily continues its positive trend along the horizon in the long run period. The response of INF to one standard innovation in OILP indicates a negative response in both short and long periods. The variance decomposition result shows that the shock of the INF to itself indicates that it accounts for the most of the variability over all periods, it ranges from 92% in the short run to 55% in the long run. The shock of INF to CPE shows a decreasing pattern from the first quarter, ranging from 0.1 % in the short run to 6.5 % in the tenth period. The shock of the INF to MPR indicates a decreasing pattern in the short run from 2.4%, it increases to 24.35% in the medium run and continues increasing to 32% in the long run. The study therefore recommends that the Federal Government’s attention should be focused on non-oil agricultural commodities for future and stable economic growth in Nigeria.
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Myint, Theingi, and Siegfried Bauer. "Market Integration and Price Causality in the Myanmar Rice Market." Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development 7, no. 2 (2010): 91–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.37801/ajad2010.7.2.6.
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In Myanmar, rice is an invaluable commodity both as a staple food and a source of high foreign exchange earnings through export. The country's agricultural economy has been transitioning from a planned economy to a market system since the late 1980s; however, the government has yet to engage in full-scale rice export deregulation. Therefore, Myanmar's rice marketing system works within the boundaries and limitations of a halfway-liberalized economy, inevitably eliciting questions about its performance. Using the Engle and Granger two-step co-integration method and the restructured Ravallion model of unrestricted vector auto-regression (VAR) error correction form, three surplus markets, three deficit markets, and Thai rice price series were tested to determine market integration and price causality. All price series were monthly data in both nominal and real values from 2001 to 2004. Results revealed that in the domestic market, integration was weak in real value of rice price, and the supply side eventually depended on the demand side. Price co-integration did not exist between Myanmar and Thai rice prices in real value, reflecting market segmentation. Consequently, accurate price information from international rice market price over time was unavailable for Myanmar rice price movement. Looking at the direction of rice price causality, deficit market prices were driving the consumer price index (CPI), and the CPI was forcing the surplus rice market price. Hence, deficit markets are the prime movers in rice price changes in Myanmar. Market integration suggests that the government should focus on managing inflationary pressure instead of being directly involved in the rice marketing sector in order to control the domestic rice price stability in the long run. Government monopoly in rice export has caused segmentation between domestic and international markets. If private rice export was permitted via trade policies, the marketing system would be able to transfer correct price signals from the world market to the producers, consumers, market participants, and finally, the government. Only then will Myanmar's rice market not be isolated from the international market and get the right price co-integration that may push the efficient market-oriented economy to move faster.
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Hapka, Michał, Piotr S. Żuchowski, Małgorzata M. Szczęśniak, and Grzegorz Chałasiński. "Symmetry-adapted perturbation theory based on unrestricted Kohn-Sham orbitals for high-spin open-shell van der Waals complexes." Journal of Chemical Physics 137, no. 16 (2012): 164104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4758455.
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Chareonsirisuthigul, Takol, Siripen Kalayanarooj, and Sukathida Ubol. "Dengue virus (DENV) antibody-dependent enhancement of infection upregulates the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines, but suppresses anti-DENV free radical and pro-inflammatory cytokine production, in THP-1 cells." Journal of General Virology 88, no. 2 (2007): 365–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1099/vir.0.82537-0.
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The immunopathogenesis of dengue haemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome is thought to be mediated by a variety of host factors. Enhancing antibodies are one of the key regulating molecules. These antibodies, via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of infection, are able to facilitate dengue virus (DENV) growth in Fc-bearing host cells. The mechanism of ADE-enhanced DENV production is believed to be mediated through increasing the infected-cell mass. In the present work, the effect of ADE infection was explored further, focusing on the post-entry events of ADE infection. It was hypothesized that the higher virus production in ADE infection compared with DENV infection may be due to the ability of this infection pathway to suppress key antiviral molecules. Therefore, the influence of ADE infection on pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, including interleukin-12 (IL-12), gamma interferon (IFN-γ), tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), IL-6 and IL-10, was investigated and it was found that DENV infection via the Fc receptor-mediated pathway was able to suppress the transcription and translation of IL-12, IFN-γ and TNF-α. In contrast, infection via this route facilitated expression and synthesis of the anti-inflammatory cytokines IL-6 and IL-10. Moreover, this study demonstrates that the ADE infection pathway also suppresses an innate anti-DENV mediator, nitric oxide radicals, by disrupting the transcription of the iNOS gene transcription factor, IRF-1, and blocking the activation of STAT-1. In conclusion, ADE infection not only facilitates the entry process, but also modifies innate and adaptive intracellular antiviral mechanisms, resulting in unrestricted DENV replication in THP-1 cells.
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Scheltiens, Vincent. "De zomer van 1917 in context." WT. Tijdschrift over de geschiedenis van de Vlaamse beweging 77, no. 3 (2019): 197–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.21825/wt.v77i3.15685.
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De zomer van 1917 was er één van belangrijke internationale en nationale politieke en militaire gebeurtenissen, maar ook het moment waarop aan het IJzerfront Vlaamse soldaten zich manifesteerden en de spanningen met de politieke en militaire hiërarchieën een hoogtepunt bereikten. Alveringem en de figuur van onderpastoor Cyriel Verschaeve stonden hierin centraal.De aankomst eind juni van de eerste Noord-Amerikaanse troepen in Europa gaf de Eerste Wereldoorlog wellicht een beslissende wending. In Duitsland deed zich een wissel van de macht voor. Met de ontketening van een totale onderzeese oorlog werd alles in het teken van een slotoverwinning gesteld. De machtsverschuiving leidde in bezet België tot meer opeisingen van goederen en mensen met verscherpte armoede, honger en dwangarbeid als gevolg.Aan het front nam het ongenoegen over het officiële triomfalisme in de pers onder soldaten toe. Daarenboven voelden vele Vlaamse soldaten zich achtergesteld door overwegend Franstalige officieren.Cyriel Verschaeve was het aanspreekpunt en de mentor van de Vlaamsgezinde soldaten die aan de basis van de frontbeweging lagen. Zijn autoriteit en populariteit had hij vóór de oorlog verworven door zijn geschriften en lezingen.Zijn houding zinde noch de kerkelijke noch de politieke hiërarchie en in de zomer van 1917 stegen de spanningen ten top.Inhoudelijk raakte Verschaeve op dezelfde golflengte als de activisten in bezet België die de Duitse bezetting en de Flamenpolitik gretig aanwendden om substantiële eisen van de vooroorlogse Vlaamse beweging te veroveren (zoals de vernederlandsing van de Gentse universiteit).Met de Russische Februarirevolutie – maart 1917 – was het begin van het einde van de oorlog ingeluid. Russische troepen waren oorlogsmoe en velen raakten onder invloed van de bolsjewieken die de oorlog wilden stopzetten. Uiteindelijk zouden ook Duitse troepen massaal in opstand komen en muiten.__________
 The Summer of 1917 in Context
 The summer of 1917 was one of important international and national political and military events, but also the moment when Flemish soldiers on the Yser Front demonstrated and the tensions with political and military hierarchies reached a high point. Alveringhem and the figure of chaplain Cyriel Verschaeve were central to this story.The arrival in the end of June of the first United States troops in Europe was perhaps a decisive turning point in the First World War. In Germany there was a change in power. With the unleashing of unrestricted submarine warfare, all their hopes were pinned on a swift victory. In occupied Belgium, the shift in power led to more requisitions of goods and people, with more poverty, hunger and forced labour as a result.On the front, dissatisfaction with the official triumphalism in the press grew among the soldiers. In addition, many Flemish soldiers felt discriminated against by overwhelmingly French-speaking officers.Cyriel Verschaeve was the point of contact and mentor for Flemish-minded soldiers who formed the basis of the Front Movement. He had acquired authority and popularity before the war through his writings and lectures.His attitude pleased neither the political nor the ecclesiastical hierarchy, and in the summer of 1917, tensions rose to the top.Verschaeve was largely on the same wavelength as the Activists in occupied Belgium, who eagerly welcomed the German occupation and Flamenpolitik to accomplish the major goals of the prewar Flemish Movement, such as the transformation of the University of Ghent into a Dutch-language institution.The Russian “February Revolution” (March in the Gregorian Calendar) in 1917 ushered in the beginning of the end of the war. Russian troops were tired of the war and many fell under the influence of the Bolsheviks who wished to end the war. Finally, German troops would also come to revolt and mutiny en masse.
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Sonneveld, Pieter, Christof Scheid, Bronno van der Holt, et al. "Bortezomib Induction and Maintenance Treatment Improves Survival In Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma:Extended Follow-Up Of The HOVON-65/GMMG-HD4 Trial." Blood 122, no. 21 (2013): 404. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v122.21.404.404.
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Abstract Background We investigated if bortezomib during induction and maintenance improves survival in newly diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (MM). Methods 827 eligible patients with newly diagnosed symptomatic MM were randomized to receive induction therapy with VAD (vincristine, doxorubicin, dexamethasone; n=414) or PAD (bortezomib, doxorubicin, dexamethasone; n=413) followed by high-dose melphalan (HDM) and autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT). Maintenance consisted of daily thalidomide 50 mg (VAD) or 2-weekly bortezomib 1.3 mg/m2 i.v. (PAD) for 2 years. The primary analysis was progression-free survival (PFS) adjusted for ISS stage. We here report long-term results of this trial (P. Sonneveld et al., J Clin Oncol 2012;30:2946-2955). Results The number of eligible patients, patient characteristics and disease characteristics are similar to those reported before. The response rates during protocol treatment have improved slightly since all patients have now completed treatment: CR+nCR 49% vs 35%, VGPR 26% vs 21% and ≥PR 91% vs 83% (PAD vs VAD). After a median follow-up of 67 months, 111 of patients treated with VAD and 131 of patients treated with PAD were progression-free and alive. Progression-free survival (PFS) defined as time from randomization until progression, relapse or death (censored at date of alloSCT, if applicable), was superior with PAD when adjusted for ISS, (HR=0.78, 95% CI [0.66-0.91], P=.002) and in multivariate analysis (HR=0.76 (95% CI [0.64-0.90], P=.001). For the secondary endpoint overall survival (OS) the PAD arm was superior when adjusted for ISS (HR=0.80, 95% CI [0.65-1.00], P=.047) as well as in multivariate analysis (HR=0.78, 95% CI [0.63-0.97], P=.027). Landmark analysis from start of maintenance for PFS did not show a significant difference between Thalidomide and Bortezomib maintenance, however, for OS the PAD arm was superior (P=.035) (HR=0.71, 95% CI [0.52-0.98]). Subgroup analysis performed on patients with renal failure at presentation (serum creatinine ≥2 mg/dL; 45 VAD, 36 PAD) showed that the PAD arm was significantly superior for PFS (HR=0.44, 95% CI [0.26-0.75], P=.003) and OS (HR=0.38, 95% CI [0.21-0.69], P<.001). 35/45 (78%) patients treated with VAD had died as compared with 16/36 (44%) patients with PAD. In bortezomib treated patients with serum creatinine ≥2 mg/dL OS and PFS were not significantly different from those in bortezomib-treated patients with normal renal function. Analysis for the effect of study group, concentrating on the difference of single HDM (sHDM, HOVON policy) vs double HDM (dHDM, GMMG policy) with ASCT indicated that dHDM was not superior across treatment arms for PFS, but in multivariate analysis remained superior for OS (HR=0-72, 95% CI [0.58-0.90], P=.004). Comparison of study group and treatment arms for OS at 5 years indicated that PAD plus dHDM was superior (72% vs 59% (PAD+sHDM) vs 63% (VAD+dHDM) vs 56% (VAD+sHDM), logrank P=.004. When patients were classified by prognostic characterization by FISH and ISS (K. Neben et al. Blood 2012;119:940-948) subgroup analysis in patients treated with dHDM showed that in the VAD arm, PFS was significantly lower in intermediate risk (IRi) (HR 2.26, 95% CI [1.42-3.58], P<0.001) and poor risk (PRi) (HR 5.02, 95% CI [2.89-8.73], P<0.001) as compared to good risk (GRi), while in the PAD arm the HR for PRi was 2.04, 95% CI [1.20-3.48], P=0.009, and for IRi 1.26, 95% CI [0.82-1.92], P=0.29. These data suggest that with PAD+dHDM only high-risk remains an independent unfavourable group for PFS. For OS a comparable difference was observed. Finally, the actuarial probability to develop a second primary malignancy was not different between treatment arms (PAD 3% at 5 years vs VAD (5%), P=.22). Conclusions Bortezomib during induction and maintenance improves CR and achieves superior PFS and OS. Subgroup analysis after long follow-up confirms the favourable outcome in patients with renal failure. Comparison of study subgroup analysis suggests that bortezomib treatment combined with double intensive treatment may be beneficial for PFS/OS. This trial has been registered as NTR213; EudraCT no. 2004-000944-26; ISRCTN: 64455289. This trial was supported by the Dutch Cancer Foundation, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and an unrestricted grant from Janssen-Cilag-Ortho Biotech. The GMMG study group received further grants to support this trial by Novartis, AMGEN, Chugai and Roche. Disclosures: Sonneveld: Janssen-Cilag: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria; Onyx: Honoraria; Janssen-Cilag: Research Funding; Millenium: Research Funding; Onyx: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding. Salwender:janssen: Honoraria. Weisel:Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria. Schmidt-Wolf:janssen: Research Funding; novartis: Honoraria. van de Velde:Janssen Research & Development: Employment; Johnson & Johnson: Equity Ownership. Lokhorst:Genmab A/S: Consultancy, Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria; Johnson-Cilag: Honoraria; Mudipharma: Honoraria. Goldschmidt:janssen: Honoraria, Research Funding; amgen: Research Funding; novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding; chigai: Honoraria, Research Funding; roche: Honoraria, Research Funding.
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Doumanoglou, Alexandros, David Griffin, Javier Serrano, et al. "Quality of Experience for 3-D Immersive Media Streaming." Transactions on Broadcasting 64, no. 2 (2018): 379–91. https://doi.org/10.1109/TBC.2018.2823909.
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Recent advances in media capture and processing technologies have enabled new forms of true 3-D media content that increase the degree of user immersion. The demand for more engaging forms of entertainment means that content distributors and broadcasters need to fine-tune their delivery mechanisms over the Internet as well as develop new models for quantifying and predicting user experience of these new forms of content. In the work described in this paper, we undertake one of the first studies into the quality of experience (QoE) of real-time 3-D media content streamed to virtual reality (VR) headsets for entertainment purposes, in the context of game spectating. Our focus is on tele-immersive media that embed real users within virtual environments of interactive games. A key feature of engaging and realistic experiences in full 3-D media environments, is allowing users unrestricted viewpoints. However, this comes at the cost of increased network bandwidth and the need of limiting network effects in order to transmit a realistic, realtime representation of the participants. The visual quality of 3-D media is affected by geometry and texture parameters while the temporal aspects of smooth movement and synchronization are affected by lag introduced by network transmission effects. In this paper, we investigate varying network conditions for a set of tele-immersive media sessions produced in a range of visual quality levels. Further, we investigate user navigation issues that inhibit free viewpoint VR spectating of live 3-D media. After reporting on a study with multiple users we analyze the results and assess the overall QoE with respect to a range of visual quality and latency parameters. We propose a neural network QoE prediction model for 3-D media, constructed from a combination of visual and network parameters.
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Piyu Parth, Naik, and Lorenzo Martini. "A simple Van der Heijde’s Disease Activity Score to determine if a patient has contracted the new Nigerian variant or suffers from the Betcherew’s syndrome." Our Dermatology Online 12, e (2021): e64-e64. http://dx.doi.org/10.7241/ourd.2021e.64.
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Sir, A new strain of coronavirus first detected in Nigeria has made its way into the UK, with 32 cases reported. Eminent experts have warned the variant may prove resistant to all types of the vaccines. Coronavirus has undergone yet another mutation and this one has made its way on to UK soil from Nigeria. There are growing fears that the variant will evade vaccine antibodies after it was revealed it contains the 484K mutation to the spike protein. Last month, a Nigerian scientist suggested the variant may cause more severe signs and symptoms [1–3]. It has been affirmed that the variants discovered in the UK and South Africa, are distantly different from the variants discovered in Nigeria, and that clinically is the most severe as far as signs and symptoms. are concerned. Generally, severe signs and symptoms associated with COVID-19 include worsened shortness of breath and pneumonia. According to the health body, these symptoms may surface about a week after symptoms start. In addition to the main symptoms of coronavirus, other symptoms include: • Muscle aches • Chills • Sore throat • Runny nose • Headache • Chest pain • Pink eyes. • Actually, Nigerian variant is more contagious than other mutations. Nigerian variant is weaker than other mutations. Nigerian variant is characterized by highest fever. In Nigerian variant no fever is observed. Nigerian variant is lethal to children. Nigerian variant is lethal to elder. Too many are informations about this newest covid strain that involves UK and Denmark, even if other countries that have entered at least one genome of this variant in the online database are Nigeria, the US, France, Canada, Ghana, Australia, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Jordan, Singapore, Finland, Switzerland, Mayotte, Belgium and Spain. While there is no information on what this means for this genome there is growing evidence that it may impact how effective COVID vaccines are. But there is no suggestion so far that Nigerian variant is more transmissible or that it leads to more severe disease. Presently, the chief indicator to detect the assault by this odd and perilous variant is the presence of Pink eyes. In this specific case, pink eyes are not sign of simplest conjunctivitis (both viral and bacterial) or allergis. It resembles the phenomenon of Pink eyes evoked by Sjoergen’s syndrom, the extreme step of rheumatoid arthritis, as the Betchereff’s syndrom in young athletes [3,4]. We can affirm that a simplest Das 28 could be resolutive to understand if the patient has contracted the Nigerian variant or proceeds with his own R.S., fully unaware. Das 28 is very easy to detect: one need only to appreciate the values of his own INR and OSR (erythrocyte sedimentation rate) and may find the module in the web, where one can insert these results and signal which of the 28 joints are really painful. The score is comprised between nihil and 5: the highest is the value the major is the chance to have pink eyes because of the R.A. and not absolutely because of the Nigerian variant. Copyright by Lorenzo Martini. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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Rodríguez, Sara, Cirino Botta, Jon Celay, et al. "Waldenström's Macroglobulinemia (WM) Is Preceded By Clonal Lymphopoiesis Including MYD88 L265P in Progenitor B Cells." Blood 134, Supplement_1 (2019): 1527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood-2019-126889.
Full textAbstract:
Background: Although MYD88 L265P is highly frequent in WM, by itself is insufficient to explain disease progression since most cases with IgM MGUS also have mutated MYD88. In fact, the percentage of MYD88 L265P in CD19+ cells isolated from WM patients is typically &lt;100%, which questions if this mutation initiates the formation of B-cell clones. Furthermore, a few WM patients have detectable MYD88 L265P in total bone marrow (BM) cells and not in CD19+ selected B cells, raising the possibility that other hematopoietic cells carry the MYD88 mutation. However, no one has investigated if the pathogenesis of WM is related to somatic mutations occurring at the hematopoietic stem cell level, similarly to what has been shown in CLL or hairy cell leukemia. Aim: Define the cellular origin of WM by comparing the genetic landscape of WM cells to that of CD34 progenitors, B cell precursors and residual normal B cells. Methods: We used multidimensional FACSorting to isolate a total of 43 cell subsets from BM aspirates of 8 WM patients: CD34+ progenitors, B cell precursors, residual normal B cells (if detectable), WM B cells, plasma cells (PCs) and T cells (germline control). Whole-exome sequencing (WES, mean depth 74x) was performed with the 10XGenomics Exome Solution for low DNA-input due to very low numbers of some cell types. We also performed single-cell RNA and B-cell receptor sequencing (scRNA/BCRseq) in total BM B cells and PCs (n=32,720) from 3 IgM MGUS and 2 WM patients. Accordingly, the clonotypic BCR detected in WM cells was unbiasedly investigated in all B cell maturation stages defined according to their molecular phenotype. In parallel, MYD88p.L252P (orthologous position of the human L265P mutation) transgenic mice were crossed with conditional Sca1Cre, Mb1Cre, and Cγ1Cre mice to selectively induce in vivo expression of MYD88 mutation in CD34 progenitors, B cell precursors and germinal center B cells, respectively. Upon immunization, mice from each cohort were necropsied at 5, 10 and 15 months of age and screened for the presence of hematological disease. Results: All 8 WM patients showed MYD88 L265P and 3 had mutated CXCR4. Notably, we found MYD88 L265P in B cell precursors from 1/8 cases and in residual normal B cells from 3/8 patients, which were confirmed by ASO-PCR. In addition, CXCR4 was simultaneously mutated in B cell precursors and WM B cells from one patient. Overall, CD34+ progenitors, B-cell precursors and residual normal B cells shared a median of 1 (range, 0-4; mean VAF, 0.16), 2 (range, 1-5; mean VAF, 0.14), and 4 (range, 1-13; mean VAF, 0.26) non-synonymous mutations with WM B cells. Some mutations were found all the way from CD34+ progenitors to WM B cells and PCs. Interestingly, concordance between the mutational landscape of WM B cells and PCs was &lt;100% (median of 85%, range: 25%-100%), suggesting that not all WB B cells differentiate into PCs. A median of 7 (range, 2-19; mean VAF, 0.39) mutations were unique to WM B cells. Accordingly, many clonal mutations in WM B cells were undetectable in normal cells. Thus, the few somatic mutations observed in patients' lymphopoiesis could not result from contamination during FACSorting since in such cases, all clonal mutations would be detectable in normal cells. Of note, while somatic mutations were systematically detected in normal cells from all patients, no copy number alterations (CNA) present in WM cells were detectable in normal cells. scRNA/BCRseq unveiled that clonotypic cells were confined mostly within mature B cell and PC clusters in IgM MGUS, whereas a fraction of clonotypic cells from WM patients showed a transcriptional profile overlapping with that of B cell precursors. In mice, induced expression of mutated MYD88 led to a moderate increase in the number of B220+CD138+ plasmablasts and B220-CD138+ PCs in lymphoid tissues and BM, but no signs of clonality or hematological disease. Interestingly, such increment was more evident in mice with activation of mutated MYD88 in CD34+ progenitors and B-cell precursors vs mice with MYD88 L252P induced in germinal center B cells. Conclusions: We show for the first time that WM patients have somatic mutations, including MYD88 L265P and in CXCR4, at the B cell progenitor level. Taken together, this study suggests that in some patients, WM could develop from B cell clones carrying MYD88 L265P rather than it being the initiating event, and that other mutations or CNA are required for the expansion of B cells and PCs with the WM phenotype. Disclosures Roccaro: Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Transcan2-ERANET: Research Funding; AstraZeneca: Research Funding; European Hematology Association: Research Funding; Transcan2-ERANET: Research Funding; Associazione Italiana per al Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC): Research Funding; Associazione Italiana per al Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC): Research Funding; European Hematology Association: Research Funding; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; AstraZeneca: Research Funding; Amgen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. San-Miguel:Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Janssen, MSD, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, and Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria. Paiva:Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Roche, and Sanofi; unrestricted grants from Celgene, EngMab, Sanofi, and Takeda; and consultancy for Celgene, Janssen, and Sanofi: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau.