Journal articles: 'Upper Indus Basin'

1

Ali, S. H., I. Bano, R. B. Kayastha, and A. Shrestha. "COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF RUNOFF AND ITS COMPONENTS IN TWO CATCHMENTS OF UPPER INDUS BASIN BY USING A SEMI DISTRIBUTED GLACIO-HYDROLOGICAL MODEL." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-2/W7 (September 14, 2017): 1487–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-2-w7-1487-2017.

Full text

Abstract:

The hydrology of Upper Indus basin is not recognized well due to the intricacies in the climate and geography, and the scarcity of data above 5000&thinsp;m&thinsp;a.s.l where most of the precipitation falls in the form of snow. The main objective of this study is to measure the contributions of different components of runoff in Upper Indus basin. To achieve this goal, the Modified positive degree day model (MPDDM) was used to simulate the runoff and investigate its components in two catchments of Upper Indus basin, Hunza and Gilgit River basins. These two catchments were selected because of their different glacier coverage, contrasting area distribution at high altitudes and significant impact on the Upper Indus River flow. The components of runoff like snow-ice melt and rainfall-base flow were identified by the model. The simulation results show that the MPDDM shows a good agreement between observed and modeled runoff of these two catchments and the effects of snow and ice are mainly reliant on the catchment characteristics and the glaciated area. For Gilgit River basin, the largest contributor to runoff is rain-base flow, whereas large contribution of snow-ice melt observed in Hunza River basin due to its large fraction of glaciated area. This research will not only contribute to the better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in the Upper Indus, but will also provide guidance for the development of hydropower potential and water resources assessment in these catchments.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

2

Archer, David. "Contrasting hydrological regimes in the upper Indus Basin." Journal of Hydrology 274, no. 1-4 (April 2003): 198–210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00414-6.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

3

Fowler, H. J., and D. R. Archer. "Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin." Journal of Climate 19, no. 17 (September 1, 2006): 4276–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3860.1.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract Temperature data for seven instrumental records in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analyzed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 1961–2000 and compared with neighboring mountain regions and the Indian subcontinent. Strong contrasts are found between the behavior of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatures. Winter mean and maximum temperature show significant increases while mean and minimum summer temperatures show consistent decline. Increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) is consistently observed in all seasons and the annual dataset, a pattern shared by much of the Indian subcontinent but in direct contrast to both GCM projections and the narrowing of DTR seen worldwide. This divergence commenced around the middle of the twentieth century and is thought to result from changes in large-scale circulation patterns and feedback processes associated with the Indian monsoon. The impact of observed seasonal temperature trend on runoff is explored using derived regression relationships. Decreases of ∼20% in summer runoff in the rivers Hunza and Shyok are estimated to have resulted from the observed 1°C fall in mean summer temperature since 1961, with even greater reductions in spring months. The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas. This suggests that the western Himalayas are showing a different response to global warming than other parts of the globe.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

4

Hassan, Syed, and Hamza Khan. "Stochastic River Flow Modelling and Forecasting of Upper Indus Basin." Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences 11 (December 17, 2015): 630–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1927-5129.2015.11.84.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

5

Pomee, Muhammad Saleem, Moetasim Ashfaq, Bashir Ahmad, and Elke Hertig. "Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 142, no. 1-2 (June 23, 2020): 29–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03246-9.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. We also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

6

Afzal, Jawad, Mark Williams, and Richard J. Aldridge. "Revised stratigraphy of the lower Cenozoic succession of the Greater Indus Basin in Pakistan." Journal of Micropalaeontology 28, no. 1 (May 1, 2009): 7–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/jm.28.1.7.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. A refined stratigraphy for the lower Cenozoic succession of the Greater Indus Basin in Pakistan is presented. This region preserves an important East Tethyan marine succession through the Paleocene–Eocene, but its interpretation in terms of regional (tectonic) and global (climatic) effects has been inhibited by poor stratigraphy. Established dinoflagellate, nannofossil, planktonic foraminiferal and shallow benthonic foraminiferal biostratigraphical data for the Greater Indus Basin in Pakistan are collated, reinterpreted (where necessary) and correlated with the global standard chronostratigraphy and biostratigraphy of the early Palaeogene. Inter-regional stratigraphical correlations for the Upper Indus Basin and Lower Indus Basin are resolved. Age-diagnostic larger benthonic foraminifera from the Late Paleocene Lockhart Formation are illustrated. These collective biostratigraphical data provide a means of interpreting the lithostratigraphy and physical stratigraphical relationships of the Palaeogene succession in terms of the interplay between local tectonics (India–Asia collision) and global sea-level change. The timing of the Tethys closure, initial and final contact of the Indian–Asian plates, and dispersal of land mammals on the Indian Plate are discussed and correlated in the stratigraphical record of the basin.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

7

Karki, Madhav Bahadur, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Hans Hurni, Anne B. Zimmermann, and Susanne Wymann von Dach. "Focus Issue: Water Resources in the Upper Indus Basin and Beyond." Mountain Research and Development 32, no. 1 (February 2012): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1659/mrd.3201.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

8

Khattak, MS, MS Babel, and M. Sharif. "Hydro-meteorological trends in the upper Indus River basin in Pakistan." Climate Research 46, no. 2 (February 22, 2011): 103–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00957.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

9

Latif, Yasir, Ma Yaoming, and Muhammad Yaseen. "Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 131, no. 1-2 (December 9, 2016): 761–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2007-3.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

10

Shrestha, Arun Bhakta, Debabrat Shukla, Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Sharmila Dhungana, Fayezurahman Azizi, Nisar Memon, Khalid Mohtadullah, et al. "Developing a science-based policy network over the Upper Indus Basin." Science of The Total Environment 784 (August 2021): 147067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147067.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

11

Brombierstäudl, Dagmar, Susanne Schmidt, and Marcus Nüsser. "Distribution and relevance of aufeis (icing) in the Upper Indus Basin." Science of The Total Environment 780 (August 2021): 146604. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146604.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

12

Archer, D. R., and H. J. Fowler. "Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 8, no. 1 (February 29, 2004): 47–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-8-47-2004.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Most of the flow in the River Indus from its upper mountain basin is derived from melting snow and glaciers. Climatic variability and change of both precipitation and energy inputs will, therefore, affect rural livelihoods at both a local and a regional scale through effects on summer runoff in the River Indus. Spatial variation in precipitation has been investigated by correlation and regression analysis of long-period records. There is a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation at stations over the entire region, so that, for practical forecasting of summer runoff in some basins, a single valley-floor precipitation station can be used In contrast, spatial relationships in seasonal precipitation are weaker in summer and sometimes significantly negative between stations north and south of the Himalayan divide. Although analysis of long datasets of precipitation from 1895 shows no significant trend, from 1961–1999 there are statistically significant increases in winter, in summer and in the annual precipitation at several stations. Preliminary analysis has identified a significant positive correlation between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter precipitation in the Karakoram and a negative correlation between NAO and summer rainfall at some stations. Keywords: upper Indus basin, climate change, time series analysis, spatial correlation, teleconnections

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

13

Sharif, M., D. R. Archer, H. J. Fowler, and N. Forsythe. "Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 4 (April 19, 2013): 1503–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1503-2013.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. River flow is a reflection of the input of moisture and its transformation in storage and transmission over the catchment. In the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), since high-altitude climate measurement and observations of glacier mass balance are weak or absent, analysis of trends in magnitude and timing in river flow provides a window on trends and fluctuations in climate and glacier outflow. Trend analysis is carried out using a Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test on records extending from 1960 to 1998. High-level glacial catchments show a falling trend in runoff magnitude and a declining proportion of glacial contribution to the main stem of the Indus. Elsewhere annual flow has predominantly increased with several stations exhibiting statistically significant positive trends. Analysis of timing using spring onset date (SOT) and centre of volume date (CoV) indicated no clear trends – in direct contrast to what has been observed in western North America. There is, however, a consistent relationship between CoV and annual runoff volume. A consistently positive correlation was also found between SOT and CoV for all the stations, implying that initial snowpack conditions before the onset of runoff influence timing throughout the season. The results of the analysis presented here indicate that the magnitude and timing of streamflow hydrograph is influenced both by the initial snowpack and by seasonally varied trends in temperature. The study contributes to the understanding of the links between climate trends and variability and river runoff and glacier mass balance and runoff. The Upper Indus Basin is predominantly influenced by winter precipitation; similar trend analysis applied to summer-monsoon-dominated catchments of the central Himalaya is recommended.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

14

Sharif, M., D. R. Archer, H. J. Fowler, and N. Forsythe. "Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 9 (September 3, 2012): 9931–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-9931-2012.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. River flow is a reflection of the input of moisture and its transformation in storage and transmission over the catchment. In the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), since high altitude climate measurement and observations of glacier mass balance are weak or absent, analysis of trends in magnitude and timing in river flow provides a window on trends and fluctuations in climate and glacier outflow. Trend analysis is carried out using a Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test on records extending from 1960 to 1998. High level glacial catchments show a falling trend in runoff magnitude and a declining proportion of glacial contribution to the main stem of the Indus. Elsewhere annual flow has predominantly increased with several stations exhibiting statistically significant positive trends. Analysis of timing using spring onset date (SOT) and centre of volume date (CoV) indicated no clear trends – in direct contrast to what has been observed in Western North America. There is, however, a consistent relationship between CoV and annual runoff volume. A consistently positive correlation was also found between SOT and CoV for all the stations implying that initial snowpack conditions before the onset of runoff influence timing throughout the season. The results of the analysis presented here indicate that the magnitude and timing of streamflow hydrograph is influenced both by the initial snowpack and by seasonally varied trends in temperature. The study contributes to the understanding of the links between climate trends and variability and river runoff and glacier mass balance and runoff. The Upper Indus Basin is predominantly influenced by winter precipitation; similar trend analysis applied to summer monsoon dominated catchments of the Central Himalaya is recommended.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

15

Tayyab, Muhammad, Ijaz Ahmad, Na Sun, Jianzhong Zhou, and Xiaohua Dong. "Application of Integrated Artificial Neural Networks Based on Decomposition Methods to Predict Streamflow at Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan." Atmosphere 9, no. 12 (December 13, 2018): 494. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120494.

Full text

Abstract:

Consistent streamflow forecasts play a fundamental part in flood risk mitigation. Population increase and water cycle intensification are extending not only globally but also among Pakistan’s water resources. The frequency of floods has increased in the last few decades in the country, which emphasizes the importance of efficient practices needed to adopt for various aspects of water resource management such as reservoir scheduling, water sustainability, and water supply. The purpose of this study is to develop a novel hybrid model for streamflow forecasting and validate its efficiency at the upper Indus basin (UIB), Pakistan. Maximum streamflow in the River Indus from its upper mountain basin results from melting snow or glaciers and climatic unevenness of both precipitation and temperature inputs, which will, therefore, affect rural livelihoods at both a local and a regional scale through effects on runoff in the Upper Indus basin (UIB). This indicates that basins receive the bulk of snowfall input to sustain the glacier system. The present study will help find the runoff from high altitude catchments and estimated flood occurrence for the proposed and constructed hydropower projects of the Upper Indus basin (UIB). Due to climate variability, the upper Indus basin (UIB) was further divided into three zone named as sub-zones, zone one (z1), zone two (z2), and zone three (z3). The hybrid models are designed by incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) models, which includes Feedforward backpropagation (FFBP) and Radial basis function (RBF) with decomposition methods. This includes a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). On the basis of the autocorrelation function and the cross-correlation function of streamflow, precipitation and temperature inputs are selected for all developed models. Data have been analyzed by comparing the simulation outputs of the models with a correlation coefficient (R), root mean square errors (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute errors (MAE). The proposed hybrid models have been applied to monthly streamflow observations from three hydrological stations and 17 meteorological stations in the UIB. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the decomposition-based models is usually better than those of AI-based models. Among the DWT and EEMD based hybrid model, EEMD has performed significantly well when compared to all other hybrid and individual AI models. The peak value analysis is also performed to confirm the results’ precision rate during the flood season (May-October). The detailed comparative analysis showed that the RBFNN integrated with EEMD has better forecasting capabilities as compared to other developed models and EEMD-RBF can capture the nonlinear characteristics of the streamflow time series during the flood season with more precision.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

16

Latif, Yasir, Yaoming Ma, and Weiqiang Ma. "Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 144, no. 1-2 (February 15, 2021): 447–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03529-9.

Full text

Abstract:

AbstractThe Indus Basin is referred to as a “water tower” which ensures water storage and supply to sustain environmental and human needs downstream by a balanced combination of precipitation, snow, glaciers, and surface water. The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) combines the high mountain ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH); this unique region is largely controlled by seasonal meltwater associated with snow and glacier melt during the summer months. The present study seeks to evaluate changes in hydrological and meteorological variable data collected through a network of 35 hydrometric and 15 climatic stations, respectively, across the UIB, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins in Pakistan. The Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) in combination with the Modified-Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used for seeking trends, while Sen’s method was applied for the slope determination of detected trends over four periods of differing lengths (T1: 1961–2013; T2: 1971–2013; T3: 1981–2013; and T4: 1991–2013). Significant decreases were observed in the mean summer and distinct months of (June–August) temperature (Tmean) at most of the stations during T1, while significant increases were dominant over the shorter T4. The mean precipitation (Pmean) was observed as significantly negative at ten stations during July; however, positive trends were observed in August and September. For streamflow, significantly upward trends were observed for mean summer, June and July flows (snowmelt dominant) during T1 and T2, within the glacier-fed basins of Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok; in contrast, streamflow (glacier melt dominant) decreased significantly in August and September over the most recent period T4. For snow-fed basins, significant increases were observed in summer mean flows at Indus at Kachura, Gilgit at Gilgit, and Alam Bridge, Astore at Doyian during (T1–T3). In particular, a stronger and more prominent signal of decreasing flows was evident in T4 within the predominantly snow-fed basins. This signal was most apparent in summer mean flows, with a large number of stations featuring significant downward trends in Jehlum and Kabul river basins. The present study concludes that the vulnerability of this region related to water stress is becoming more intense due to significantly increased temperature, reduced precipitation, and decreasing summer flows during T4.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

17

Rauf, Ateeq Ur, Muhammad Salman Rafi, Irshad Ali, and Uzair Wali Muhammad. "Temperature Trend Detection in Upper Indus Basin by Using Mann-Kendall Test." Advances in Science, Technology and Engineering Systems Journal 1, no. 4 (October 2016): 5–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.25046/aj010402.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

18

Rao, Mukund Palat, Edward R. Cook, Benjamin I. Cook, Jonathan G. Palmer, Maria Uriarte, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, et al. "Six Centuries of Upper Indus Basin Streamflow Variability and Its Climatic Drivers." Water Resources Research 54, no. 8 (August 2018): 5687–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018wr023080.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

19

Viste, E., and A. Sorteberg. "Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future from a little-known past." Cryosphere 9, no. 3 (June 2, 2015): 1147–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1147-2015.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Snow and ice provide large amounts of meltwater to the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. This study combines present-day observations and reanalysis data with climate model projections to estimate the amount of snow falling over the basins today and in the last decades of the 21st century. Estimates of present-day snowfall based on a combination of temperature and precipitation from reanalysis data and observations vary by factors of 2–4. The spread is large, not just between the reanalysis and the observations but also between the different observational data sets. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario (RCP8.5), the climate models project reductions in annual snowfall by 30–50% in the Indus Basin, 50–60% in the Ganges Basin and 50–70% in the Brahmaputra Basin by 2071–2100. The reduction is due to increasing temperatures, as the mean of the models show constant or increasing precipitation throughout the year in most of the region. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario, the mean elevation where rain changes to snow – the rain/snow line – creeps upward by 400–900 m, in most of the region by 700–900 meters. The largest relative change in snowfall is seen in the upper westernmost sub-basins of the Brahmaputra. With the strongest forcing scenario, most of this region will have temperatures above freezing, especially in the summer. The projected reduction in annual snowfall is 65–75%. In the upper Indus, the effect of a warmer climate on snowfall is less extreme, as most of the terrain is high enough to have temperatures sufficiently far below freezing today. A 20–40% reduction in annual snowfall is projected.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

20

Viste, E., and A. Sorteberg. "Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future from a little-known past." Cryosphere Discussions 9, no. 1 (January 16, 2015): 441–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-441-2015.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Snow and ice provide large amounts of meltwater to the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. This study combines present-day observations and reanalysis data with climate model projections to estimate the amount of snow falling over the basins today and in the last decades of the 21st century. Estimates of present-day snowfall based on a combination of temperature and precipitation from reanalysis data and observations, vary by factors of 2–4. The spread is large, not just between the reanalysis and the observations, but also between the different observational data sets. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario (RCP 8.5), the climate models project reductions in annual snowfall by 30–50% in the Indus Basin, 50–60% in the Ganges Basin and 50–70% in the Brahmaputra Basin, by 2071–2100. The reduction is due to increasing temperatures, as the mean of the models show constant or increasing precipitation throughout the year in most of the region. With the strongest anthropogenic forcing scenario, the mean elevation where rain changes to snow – the rain/snow line – creeps upward by 400–900 m, in most of the region by 700–900 m. The largest relative change in snowfall is seen in the upper, westernmost sub-basins of the Brahmaputra. With the strongest forcing scenario, most of this region will have temperatures above freezing, especially in the summer. The projected reduction in annual snowfall is 65–75%. In the upper Indus, the effect of a warmer climate on snowfall is less extreme, as most of the terrain is high enough to have temperatures sufficiently far below freezing today. A 20–40% reduction in annual snowfall is projected.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

21

Ashraf, Arshad, and Ghani Akbar. "Addressing Climate Change Risks Influencing Cryosphere-Fed Kuhl Irrigation System in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan." International Journal of Environment 9, no. 2 (November 4, 2020): 184–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v9i2.32700.

Full text

Abstract:

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

22

Reggiani, P., and T. H. M. Rientjes. "A reflection on the long-term water balance of the Upper Indus Basin." Hydrology Research 46, no. 3 (July 1, 2014): 446–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2014.060.

Full text

Abstract:

Rapid glacier retreats due to rising temperatures have been predicted in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKKH). Recent findings indicate shrinking glaciers in parts of the Himalayas, affecting ice storage and ultimately water availability. Insights on ice storage of the HKKH remain controversial, where glaciers retreat in some parts, while surging in others. In high-altitude areas only few in-situ observations are available, leading to ambiguous closure of the hydrological balance. Objective of this paper is to analyze the closure for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). A first-order analysis using long-term flow and precipitation records, estimates of evaporation and ice storage is performed. Satellite information, atmospheric reanalyses, in-situ observations and related uncertainty are independently investigated. Trend analysis of 50-year stream flow indicates a statistically insignificant decrease of basin outflow. Analysis of 100-year precipitation data at valley stations shows no significant long-term trend, whereas temperature has increased moderately. Estimates of evaporation and sublimation in the HKKH system are notably few. Findings suggest that a substantial loss of ice in the UIB during the 1999–2009 decade is unlikely. Ice storage is probably at equilibrium or under slight accumulation, as indicated by recent altimetry studies in the Karakoram. In the UIB there is no evidence for intermediate-term risk to water supply as suggested in recent literature.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

23

Hewitt, Kenneth. "Glacier Change, Concentration, and Elevation Effects in the Karakoram Himalaya, Upper Indus Basin." Mountain Research and Development 31, no. 3 (August 2011): 188–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1659/mrd-journal-d-11-00020.1.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

24

Ahmed, M. Farooq, J. David Rogers, and Elamin H. Ismail. "A regional level preliminary landslide susceptibility study of the upper Indus river basin." European Journal of Remote Sensing 47, no. 1 (January 2014): 343–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.5721/eujrs20144721.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

25

Abbas, Sawaid, Faisal Qamer, Manchiraju Murthy, Nitin Tripathi, Wu Ning, Eklabya Sharma, and Ghaffar Ali. "Grassland Growth in Response to Climate Variability in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan." Climate 3, no. 3 (August 25, 2015): 697–714. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli3030697.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

26

Hasson, Shabeh, Jürgen Böhner, and Valerio Lucarini. "Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin." Earth System Dynamics 8, no. 2 (May 17, 2017): 337–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-337-2017.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB) contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250–4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995–2012) and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961–2012). For this, a Mann–Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field-) significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995–2012), we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March) and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September), which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July). Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961–2012), most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime, altering overall hydrology of the UIB in future. These findings, though constrained by sparse and short observations, largely contribute in understanding the UIB melt runoff dynamics and address the hydroclimatic explanation of the Karakoram Anomaly.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

27

Hasson, S., J. Böhner, and V. Lucarini. "Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus basin." Earth System Dynamics Discussions 6, no. 1 (March 23, 2015): 579–653. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-579-2015.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Largely depending on meltwater from the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus basin (UIB) contribute to half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, we present a comprehensive hydro-climatic trend analysis over the UIB, including for the first time observations from high-altitude automated weather stations. We analyze trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures (Tx, Tn, and Tavg, respectively), diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation from 18 stations (1250–4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995–2012), and separately, from six stations of their long term record (1961–2012). We apply Mann–Kendall test on serially independent time series to assess existence of a trend while true slope is estimated using Sen's slope method. Further, we statistically assess the spatial scale (field) significance of local climatic trends within ten identified sub-regions of UIB and analyze whether the spatially significant (field significant) climatic trends qualitatively agree with a trend in discharge out of corresponding sub-region. Over the recent period (1995–2012), we find a well agreed and mostly field significant cooling (warming) during monsoon season i.e. July–October (March–May and November), which is higher in magnitude relative to long term trends (1961–2012). We also find general cooling in Tx and a mixed response in Tavg during the winter season and a year round decrease in DTR, which are in direct contrast to their long term trends. The observed decrease in DTR is stronger and more significant at high altitude stations (above 2200 m a.s.l.), and mostly due to higher cooling in Tx than in Tn. Moreover, we find a field significant decrease (increase) in late-monsoonal precipitation for lower (higher) latitudinal regions of Himalayas (Karakoram and Hindukush), whereas an increase in winter precipitation for Hindukush, western- and whole Karakoram, UIB-Central, UIB-West, UIB-West-upper and whole UIB regions. We find a spring warming (field significant in March) and drying (except for Karakoram and its sub-regions), and subsequent rise in early-melt season flows. Such early melt response together with effective cooling during monsoon period subsequently resulted in a substantial drop (weaker increase) in discharge out of higher (lower) latitudinal regions (Himalaya and UIB-West-lower) during late-melt season, particularly during July. These discharge tendencies qualitatively differ to their long term trends for all regions, except for UIB-West-upper, western-Karakorum and Astore. The observed hydroclimatic trends, being driven by certain changes in the monsoonal system and westerly disturbances, indicate dominance (suppression) of nival (glacial) runoff regime, altering substantially the overall hydrology of UIB in future. These findings largely contribute to address the hydroclimatic explanation of the "Karakoram Anomaly".

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

28

Sukla, Debabrat, A. P. Dimri, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, and F. A. Shaheen. "Promoting Science-Based Diplomacy in the Upper Indus Basin through a Research Network." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, no. 7 (July 1, 2020): E1142—E1147. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-20-0042.1.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

29

Khan, Firdos, and Jürgen Pilz. "Modelling and sensitivity analysis of river flow in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan." International Journal of Water 12, no. 1 (2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijw.2018.090184.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

30

Pilz, Jürgen, and Firdos Khan. "Modelling and sensitivity analysis of river flow in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan." International Journal of Water 12, no. 1 (2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijw.2018.10011173.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

31

Faran Ali, Khawaja, and Dirk H. de Boer. "Factors controlling specific sediment yield in the upper Indus River basin, northern Pakistan." Hydrological Processes 22, no. 16 (July 30, 2008): 3102–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6896.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

32

Latif, Yasir, Ma Yaoming, Muhammad Yaseen, Sher Muhammad, and Muhammad Atif Wazir. "Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 139, no. 1-2 (October 12, 2019): 741–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02993-8.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract Runoff generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) mainly originates in the massifs of the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. Water supply in early spring depends upon the snow accumulation in the winter and the subsequent temperature. Seasonal temperature variations corroborate the contemporary dynamics of snow and glaciers. Recently, there has been increasing evidence of accelerated warming in high mountain areas, termed as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We have identified trends, analyzed inconsistencies, and calculated changes in the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature range (Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, and DTR) at 20 weather stations during four-time series: 1961–2013 (first), 1971–2013 (second), 1981–2013 (third), and 1991–2013 (fourth). We employed the Mann–Kendall test to determine the existence of a trend and Sen’s method for the estimation of prevailing trends, whereas homogeneity analysis was applied before trend identification using three different tests. This study revealed that the largest and smallest magnitudes of trends appeared in the winter and summer, respectively, particularly during the fourth data series. Tmax revealed robust warming at ten stations, most remarkably at Gupis, Khunjrab, and Naltar at rates of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.43 °C/decade, respectively, during the fourth series. We observed that Tmin exhibits a mixed pattern of warming and cooling during the second and third series, but cooling becomes stronger during the fourth series, exhibiting significant trends at twelve stations. Khunjrab and Naltar showed steady warming during the fourth series (spring), at rates of 0.26 and 0.13 °C/decade in terms of Tmean. The observed decreases in DTR appeared stronger in the fourth series during the summer. These findings tend to partially support the notion of EDW but validate the dominance of cooling spatially and temporally.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

33

Khalid, Perveiz, Muhammad Irfan Ehsan, Mohamed Metwaly, and Shahzada Khurram. "Mechanical and Elastic Characterization of Shale Gas Play in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan." Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering 46, no. 6 (January 11, 2021): 5767–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13369-020-05275-y.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

34

Smith, T., A. Rheinwalt, and B. Bookhagen. "Topography and climate in the upper Indus Basin: Mapping elevation-snow cover relationships." Science of The Total Environment 786 (September 2021): 147363. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147363.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

35

Sobkowiak, Leszek, Adam Perz, Dariusz Wrzesiński, and Muhammad Abrar Faiz. "Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions." Sustainability 12, no. 12 (June 23, 2020): 5122. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12125122.

Full text

Abstract:

In this study, on the basis of the maximum and mean annual values of flows, dependencies between flows recorded in seven water gauges located in the upper part of the Indus River Basin (IRB) in Pakistan were analyzed. First, the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (M–K) test was used to detect trends in the flows. Next, the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied. Then, the selected copulas were used to find joint distributions of the studied time series. In the next stage, the degrees of synchronous and asynchronous occurrence of, respectively, the annual maximum (AMAXF) and mean annual flows (MAF) were calculated. The study revealed that correlations between the flows in selected gauge stations were very strong and statistically significant. These results were confirmed by the synchronicity analysis carried out with the help of the copula functions. The highest relationship was detected in the case of gauges Besham Qila and Kachura on the Indus mainstream, while the lowest was detected in gauges Besham Qila and Naltar on the Naltar River. These findings can be of high practical value in the field of sustainable water resource management, including for flood protection, agricultural water supply, reservoir water storage, and hydropower generation in the IRB.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

36

Hasson, S., V. Lucarini, M. R. Khan, M. Petitta, T. Bolch, and G. Gioli. "Early 21st century climatology of snow cover for the western river basins of the Indus River System." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 10, no. 11 (November 4, 2013): 13145–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-13145-2013.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. In this paper we assess the snow cover and its dynamics for the western river basins of the Indus River System (IRS) and their sub-basins located in Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan for the period 2001–2012. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) daily snow products from Terra (MOD) and Aqua (MYD) have been first improved and then analysed on seasonal and annual basis against different topographic parameters (aspect, elevation and slope). Our applied cloud filtering technique has reduced the cloud cover from 37% (MOD) and 43% (MYD) to 7%, thus improving snow cover estimates from 7% (MOD) and 5% (MYD) to 14% for the area of interest (AOI) during the validation period (2004). Our results show a decreasing tendency for the annual average snow cover for the westerlies-influenced basins (Upper Indus Basin, Astore, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok) and an increasing tendency for the monsoon-influenced basins (Jhelum, Kabul, Swat and Gilgit). Regarding the seasonal snow cover, decrease during winter and autumn and increase during spring and summer has been found, which is consistent with the observed cooling and warming trends during the respective seasons. Sub-basins at relatively higher latitude/altitude show higher variability than basins at lower latitude/mid-altitude. Northeastern and northwestern aspects feature larger snow cover. The mean regional snow line altitude (SLA) zones range between 3000 and 5000 m a.s.l. for all basins. Our analysis provides an indication of a decrease in the regional SLA zone, thus indicating a change in the water resources of the studied basins, particularly for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Such results are consistent with the observed hydro-climate data, recently collected local perceptions and glacier mass balances for the investigated period. Moreover, our analysis suggests some potential for the seasonal stream flow forecast as a significant negative correlation has been detected for the inter-annual variability of winter snow cover and value of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the previous autumn.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

37

Archer, D. R., N. Forsythe, H. J. Fowler, and S. M. Shah. "Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 8 (August 27, 2010): 1669–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1669-2010.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation. The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes – a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

38

Archer, D. R., N. Forsythe, H. J. Fowler, and S. M. Shah. "Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 7, no. 2 (March 15, 2010): 1883–912. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-7-1883-2010.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation. The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes – a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

39

Ul Hussan, Waqas, Muhammad Khurram Shahzad, Frank Seidel, Anna Costa, and Franz Nestmann. "Comparative Assessment of Spatial Variability and Trends of Flows and Sediments under the Impact of Climate Change in the Upper Indus Basin." Water 12, no. 3 (March 6, 2020): 730. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12030730.

Full text

Abstract:

Extensive research of the variability of flows under the impact of climate change has been conducted for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). However, limited literature is available on the spatial distribution and trends of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) in the sub-basins of UIB. This study covers the comparative assessment of flows and SSC trends measured at 13 stations in the UIB along with the variability of precipitation and temperatures possibly due to climate change for the past three decades. In the course of this period, the country’s largest reservoir, Tarbela, on the Indus River was depleted rapidly due to heavy sediment influx from the UIB. Sediment management of existing storage and future planned hydraulic structures (to tap 30,000 MW in the region) depends on the correct assessment of SSC, their variation patterns, and trends. In this study, the SSC trends are determined along with trends of discharges, precipitation, and temperatures using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results reveal that the annual flows and SSC are in a balanced state for the Indus River at Besham Qila, whereas the SSC are significantly reduced ranging from 18.56%–28.20% per decade in the rivers of Gilgit at Alam Bridge, Indus at Kachura, and Brandu at Daggar. The SSC significantly increase ranging from 20.08%–40.72% per decade in the winter together with a significant increase of average air temperature. During summers, the SSC are decreased significantly ranging from 18.63%–27.79% per decade along with flows in the Hindukush and Western–Karakorum regions, which is partly due to the Karakorum climate anomaly, and in rainfall-dominated basins due to rainfall reduction. In Himalayan regions, the SSC are generally increased slightly during summers. These findings will be helpful for understanding the sediment trends associated with flow, precipitation, and temperature variations, and may be used for the operational management of current reservoirs and the design of several hydroelectric power plants that are planned for construction in the UIB.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

40

Yaseen, Muhammad, Ijaz Ahmad, Jiali Guo, Muhammad Imran Azam, and Yasir Latif. "Spatiotemporal Variability in the Hydrometeorological Time-Series over Upper Indus River Basin of Pakistan." Advances in Meteorology 2020 (April 30, 2020): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5852760.

Full text

Abstract:

This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variability in hydrometeorological time-series to evaluate the current and future scenarios of water resources availability from upper Indus basin (UIB). Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests were used to analyze the variability in the temperature, precipitation, and streamflow time-series data at 27 meteorological stations and 34 hydrological stations for the period of 1963 to 2014. The time-series data of entire study period were divided into two equal subseries of 26 years each (1963–1988 and 1989–2014) to assess the overlapping aspect of climate change acceleration over UIB. The results showed a warming pattern at low altitude stations, while a cooling tendency was detected at high-altitude stations. An increase in streamflow was detected during winter and spring seasons at all hydrological stations, whereas the streamflow in summer and autumn seasons exhibited decreasing trends. The annual precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend at ten stations, while a significant increasing trend was observed at Kohat station during second subseries of the study period. The most significant winter drying trends were observed at Gupis, Chitral, Garidopatta, and Naran stations of magnitude of 47%, 13%, 25%, and 18%, respectively, during the second subseries. The annual runoff exhibited significant deceasing trends over Jhelum subbasin at Azad Pattan, Chinari, Domel Kohala, Muzaffarabad, and Palote, while within Indus basin at Chahan, Gurriala, Khairabad, Karora, and Kalam in the second time-series. It is believed that the results of this study will be helpful for the decision-makers to develop strategies for planning and development of future water resources projects.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

41

Ismail, Muhammad Fraz, and Wolfgang Bogacki. "Scenario approach for the seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from the Upper Indus Basin." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 2 (February 26, 2018): 1391–409. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1391-2018.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Snow and glacial melt runoff are the major sources of water contribution from the high mountainous terrain of the Indus River upstream of the Tarbela reservoir. A reliable forecast of seasonal water availability for the Kharif cropping season (April–September) can pave the way towards better water management and a subsequent boost in the agro-economy of Pakistan. The use of degree-day models in conjunction with satellite-based remote-sensing data for the forecasting of seasonal snow and ice melt runoff has proved to be a suitable approach for data-scarce regions. In the present research, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) has not only been enhanced by incorporating the glacier (G) component but also applied for the forecast of seasonal water availability from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Excel-based SRM+G takes account of separate degree-day factors for snow and glacier melt processes. All-year simulation runs with SRM+G for the period 2003–2014 result in an average flow component distribution of 53, 21, and 26 % for snow, glacier, and rain, respectively. The UIB has been divided into Upper and Lower parts because of the different climatic conditions in the Tibetan Plateau. The scenario approach for seasonal forecasting, which like the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method uses historic meteorology as model forcings, has proven to be adequate for long-term water availability forecasts. The accuracy of the forecast with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 9.5 % could be slightly improved compared to two existing operational forecasts for the UIB, and the bias could be reduced to −2.0 %. However, the association between forecasts and observations as well as the skill in predicting extreme conditions is rather weak for all three models, which motivates further research on the selection of a subset of ensemble members according to forecasted seasonal anomalies.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

42

Charles, Stephen P., Quan J. Wang, Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad, Danial Hashmi, Andrew Schepen, Geoff Podger, and David E. Robertson. "Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: an assessment of methods." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 6 (June 29, 2018): 3533–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Timely and skilful seasonal streamflow forecasts are used by water managers in many regions of the world for seasonal water allocation outlooks for irrigators, reservoir operations, environmental flow management, water markets and drought response strategies. In Australia, the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) statistical approach has been deployed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to provide seasonal streamflow forecasts across the country since 2010. Here we assess the BJP approach, using antecedent conditions and climate indices as predictors, to produce Kharif season (April–September) streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest upper Indus Basin (UIB) water supply dams, Tarbela (on the Indus) and Mangla (on the Jhelum). For Mangla, we compare these BJP forecasts to (i) ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) from the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) and (ii) a hybrid approach using the BJP with SRM–ESP forecast means as an additional predictor. For Tarbela, we only assess BJP forecasts using antecedent and climate predictors as we did not have access to SRM for this location. Cross validation of the streamflow forecasts shows that the BJP approach using two predictors (March flow and an El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO, climate index) provides skilful probabilistic forecasts that are reliable in uncertainty spread for both Mangla and Tarbela. For Mangla, the SRM approach leads to forecasts that exhibit some bias and are unreliable in uncertainty spread, and the hybrid approach does not result in better forecast skill. Skill levels for Kharif (April–September), early Kharif (April–June) and late Kharif (July–September) BJP forecasts vary between the two locations. Forecasts for Mangla show high skill for early Kharif and moderate skill for all Kharif and late Kharif, whereas forecasts for Tarbela also show moderate skill for all Kharif and late Kharif, but low skill for early Kharif. The BJP approach is simple to apply, with small input data requirements and automated calibration and forecast generation. It offers a tool for rapid deployment at many locations across the UIB to provide probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts that can inform Pakistan's basin water management.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

43

et al., Gilany. "Simulation of glacial lake outburst flood hazard in Hunza valley of upper Indus Basin." International Journal of ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES 8, no. 1 (January 2021): 41–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2021.01.006.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

44

Archer, David. "Hydrological implications of spatial and altitudinal variation in temperature in the upper Indus basin." Hydrology Research 35, no. 3 (June 1, 2004): 209–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2004.0015.

Full text

Abstract:

Runoff in the upper Indus in Pakistan is primarily fed by meltwater from snow and ice. Successful modelling of runoff thus depends on knowledge of the energy inputs for melt, and temperature provides a practical index. In this study, spatial and altitudinal variations in air temperature are investigated using correlation and regression analysis. The high levels of seasonal correlation between widely separated stations and with altitude suggest that conditions over a wide surrounding area and up to the freezing level may be inferred with reasonable reliability from climate stations at the valley level. Investigation of concurrent daily rainfall, temperature and runoff in extreme monsoon incursions shows that precipitation is accompanied by a sharp fall in temperature, reduced ablation and, most frequently, a decrease in river flow. Such temperature reductions have practical implications for short term flood forecasting and for design flood estimation.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

45

Baudouin, Jean-Philippe, Michael Herzog, and Cameron A. Petrie. "Contribution of Cross-Barrier Moisture Transport to Precipitation in the Upper Indus River Basin." Monthly Weather Review 148, no. 7 (June 18, 2020): 2801–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-19-0384.1.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract The upper Indus River basin is characterized by biseasonal heavy precipitation falling on the foothills of major mountain ranges (Hindu Kush, Karakorm, Himalayas). Numerical studies have confirmed the importance of topography for the triggering of precipitation and investigated the processes responsible for specific events, but a systematic and cross-seasonal analysis has yet to be conducted. Using ERA5 reanalysis data and statistical methods, we show that more than 80% of the precipitation variability is explained by southerly moisture transport at 850 and 700 hPa, along the Himalayan foothills. We conclude that most of the precipitation is generated by the forced uplift of a cross-barrier flow. This process explains both wet seasons, despite different synoptic conditions, but is more important in winter. The precipitation signal is decomposed into the contribution of each altitude and each variable (wind and moisture), which exhibit different seasonality. The winter wet season is dominated by moisture transport at higher altitude, and is triggered by an increase in wind. By contrast, the summer wet season is explained by an increase in moisture at both altitudes, while wind is of secondary importance. Selected CMIP6 climate models are able to represent the observed links between precipitation and southerly moisture transport, despite important seasonal biases that are due to a misrepresentation of the seasonality in the magnitude of the southerly wind component.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

46

Hewitt, Kenneth. "Glacially conditioned rock-slope failures and disturbance-regime landscapes, Upper Indus Basin, northern Pakistan." Geological Society, London, Special Publications 320, no. 1 (2009): 235–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/sp320.15.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

47

Khan, Asif, Keith S. Richards, Geoffrey T. Parker, Allan McRobie, and Biswajit Mukhopadhyay. "How large is the Upper Indus Basin? The pitfalls of auto-delineation using DEMs." Journal of Hydrology 509 (February 2014): 442–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.028.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

48

Swati, Muhammad Azhar Farooq, Muhammad Hanif, Muhammad Haneef, and Abdus Saboor. "Late Palaeocene to Early Eocene biostratigraphic framework from Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan, Eastern Tethys." Geological Journal 56, no. 7 (March 4, 2021): 3541–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/gj.4114.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

49

Shafiq, Muhammad, Muhammad Irfan, and Mehrab Khan. "Using Multi-Mission Satellite Elevation Data for Delineation of Gilgit Watershed in Pakistan in Geographical Information Technology Environment." International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology 11, no. 2 (September 25, 2020): 19–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.46660/ijeeg.vol11.iss2.2020.441.

Full text

Abstract:

The hydro-climatological variations in Gilgit watershed of Upper Indus basin is less scientifically understood due to diverse geography, remoteness of the region and larger variations in climatic conditions. Extraction of catchments at multiple scales is an important task in undertaking the watershed management studies. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) and geographical information technology (GIT) provide a very useful method to study the watersheds. In view of the facts, watershed/ natural resources management in Gilgit river basin, application of geospatial techniques to various elevation datasets is required in order to obtain more accurate results using these elevation datasets. To achieve this goal, the topographic feature extraction has been studied in the catchment of Gilgit river using different Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) viz., SRTM, ASTER GDEM and GTOPO30. Several small watersheds for the Phakor, Karamber, East Gammu, Bhort and Bad-e-Swat glaciers were delineated for the basin definition. The delineated watersheds have been visually analyzed against the optical Landsat 8 OLI imagery for mountainous ridge matching. The results revealed that, SRTM 30m (radar based) exhibited more accuracy among these DEMs because of its precise delineation in the Gilgit sub-basin. However, it is appropriate to say that computed area from all three DEMs generally show close agreement. This study is a good contribution towards better understanding of the watershed management and the hydrological responses in Gilgit watershed of the upper Indus catchment.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

50

Immerzeel, W. W., N. Wanders, A. F. Lutz, J. M. Shea, and M. F. P. Bierkens. "Reconciling high altitude precipitation in the upper Indus Basin with glacier mass balances and runoff." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 12, no. 5 (May 4, 2015): 4755–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-4755-2015.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract. Mountain ranges in Asia are important water suppliers, especially if downstream climates are arid, water demands are high and glaciers are abundant. In such basins, the hydrological cycle depends heavily on high altitude precipitation. Yet direct observations of high altitude precipitation are lacking and satellite derived products are of insufficient resolution and quality to capture spatial variation and magnitude of mountain precipitation. Here we use glacier mass balances to inversely infer the high altitude precipitation in the upper Indus Basin and show that the amount of precipitation required to sustain the observed mass balances of the large glacier systems is far beyond what is observed at valley stations or estimated by gridded precipitation products. An independent validation with observed river flow confirms that the water balance can indeed only be closed when the high altitude precipitation is up to a factor ten higher than previously thought. We conclude that these findings alter the present understanding of high altitude hydrology and will have an important bearing on climate change impact studies, planning and design of hydropower plants and irrigation reservoirs and the regional geopolitical situation in general.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Journal articles on the topic 'Upper Indus Basin'

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles