Relevant bibliographies by topics / VARMA model

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  2. Dissertations / Theses
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Academic literature on the topic 'VARMA model'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 6 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "VARMA model"

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Al-Nasser, A. H., and L. T. Abdullah. "The Estimators of Vector Autoregressive Moving Avarege Model VARMA of Lower Order: VARMA (0,1), ARMA (1,0), VARMA (1,1), VARMA (1,2), VARMA (2,1), VARMA (2,2) with Forecasting." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1818, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 012145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1818/1/012145.

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Sfetcu, Răzvan-Cornel, Sorina-Cezarina Sfetcu, and Vasile Preda. "Ordering Awad–Varma Entropy and Applications to Some Stochastic Models." Mathematics 9, no. 3 (January 31, 2021): 280. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9030280.

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We consider a generalization of Awad–Shannon entropy, namely Awad–Varma entropy, introduce a stochastic order on Awad–Varma residual entropy and study some properties of this order, like closure, reversed closure and preservation in some stochastic models (the proportional hazard rate model, the proportional reversed hazard rate model, the proportional odds model and the record values model).
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Wei, Ching-Chun. "Empirical Analysis of “Volatilitysurprise” between Dollar Exchange Rate and CRB Commodity Future Markets." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 9 (August 24, 2016): 117. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n9p117.

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This paper used the five multivariate GARCH models (including BEKK, CCC, DCC, VARMA-CCC and VARMA-DCC) to analyze the mean and volatility interaction of volatility surprise between US dollar exchange and CRB future index (including agricultural, energy, commodity and precious metal equity index). The empirical findings exhibit that significant own short and long-term persistence effects and the cross-markets volatility surprise spillover short and long-term persistence effects between dollar exchange rate and CRB commodity future equity index markets in five multivariate GARCH models. Besides that, the residual diagnostic test indicated that VARMA-DCC models is the best suitable model to modeling the dollar exchange rate with CRB commodity equity index.
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Olusola-Makinde, Olubukola O., and Olusola S. Makinde. "COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Nigeria: gender based analysis." PeerJ 9 (February 12, 2021): e10613. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10613.

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Background Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been surging globally. Risk strata in medical attention are of dynamic significance for apposite assessment and supply distribution. Presently, no known cultured contrivance is available to fill this gap of this pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model based on vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model of various orders for gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. This study also aims to proffer empirical evidence that compares incidence between male and female for COVID-19 risk factors. Methods Wilcoxon signed-rank test is employed to investigate the significance of the difference in the gender distributions of the daily incidence. A VARMA model of various orders is formulated for the gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. The optimal VARMA model is identified using Bayesian information criterion. Also, a predictive model based on univariate autoregressive moving average model is formulated for the daily death cases in Nigeria. Fold change is estimated based on crude case-fatality risk to investigate whether there is massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. Results Daily incidence is higher in males on most days from 11 April 2020 to 12 September 2020. Result of Wilcoxon signed-rank test shows that incidence among male is significantly higher than female (p-value < 2.22 × 10−16). White neural network test shows that daily female incidence is not linear in mean (p-value = 0.00058746) while daily male incidence is linear in mean (p-value = 0.4257). McLeod-Li test shows that there is autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the female incidence (Maximum p-value = 1.4277 × 10−5) and male incidence (Maximum p-value = 9.0816 × 10−14) at 5% level of significance. Ljung-Box test (Tsay, 2014) shows that the daily incidence cases are not random (p-value=0.0000). The optimal VARMA model for male and female daily incidence is VARMA (0,1). The optimal model for the Nigeria’s daily COVID-19 death cases is identified to be ARIMA (0,1,1). There is no evidence of massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. Conclusions Comparison of the observed incidence with fitted data by gender shows that the optimal VARMA and ARIMA models fit the data well. Findings highlight the significant roles of gender on daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria.
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USMAN, Mustofa, N. INDRYANI, WARSONO A., and AMANTO WAMILIANA. "DYNAMIC MODELING OF TIME SERIES DATA USING BEKK-GARCH MODEL." Periódico Tchê Química 17, no. 36 (December 20, 2020): 1186–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.52571/ptq.v17.n36.2020.1202_periodico36_pgs_1186_1198.pdf.

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The Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is one of the models that is often used in modeling multivariate time series data. In time-series data of economics, especially data return, they usually have high fluctuations in some periods, so the return volatility is unstable. In modeling data return of share prices ADRO and ITMG, the behavior of high volatility will be considered. This study aims to find the best model that fits the data return of share price of the energy companies of PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), to analyze the behavior of impulse response of the variables data return ADRO and ITMG, to analyze the granger causality test, and to forecast the next 12 periods. Based on the selection of the best model using the criteria of AICC, HQC, AIC, and SBC, it was found that the VARMA (2.2) -GARCH (1.1) model is the best one for the data in this study. The model VARMA(2,2)-GARCH (1,1) is then written as a univariate model. For the univariate ADRO model, the test statistics F = 4,73 and P-value = 0,0084, which indicates the model is very significant; and for the univariate ITMG model, the test statistics is F = 5,82 and P-value 0,0001, which indicates the model is significant. Based on the best model selected, the impulse response, Granger causality test, and forecasting for the next 12 periods are discussed.
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Raghavan, Mala, George Athanasopoulos, and Param Silvapulle. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model." Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique 49, no. 1 (February 2016): 347–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/caje.12200.

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Kamarianakis, Yiannis, and Poulicos Prastacos. "Forecasting Traffic Flow Conditions in an Urban Network: Comparison of Multivariate and Univariate Approaches." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1857, no. 1 (January 2003): 74–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1857-09.

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Several univariate and multivariate models have been proposed for performing short-term forecasting of traffic flow. Two different univariate [historical average and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average)] and two multivariate [VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) and STARIMA (space–time ARIMA)] models are presented and discussed. A comparison of the forecasting performance of these four models is undertaken with data sets from 25 loop detectors located in major arterials in the city of Athens, Greece. The variable under study is the relative velocity, which is the traffic volume divided by the road occupancy. Although the specification of the network’s neighborhood structure for the STARIMA model was relatively simple and can be further refined, the results obtained indicate a comparable forecasting performance for the ARIMA, VARMA, and STARIMA models. The historical average model could not cope with the variability of the data sets at hand.
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Shukla, P. K., and L. Stenflo. "Linear and nonlinear coupled Alfvén-Varma modes." Journal of Plasma Physics 40, no. 3 (December 1988): 473–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022377800013441.

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Starting from the particle continuity equation and the guiding-centre model for the particle velocity, using an equation of state in the form of the conservation of the ion magnetic moment, as well as Ohm's and Ampère's laws, a set of four coupled nonlinear equations has been derived to investigate the properties of magnetic turbulence in plasmas with hot ions and cold electrons. It is shown that finite-β effects can cause a linear coupling between the Alfvén and Varma modes in a weakly non-uniform plasma immersed in an inhomogeneous magnetic field. In the nonlinear regime the stationary solutions of the four field equations are found to be double vortices. Implications of our results for enhanced magnetic fluctuation and anomalous transport in a mirror reactor are pointed out.
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Wei, Ching-Chun. "Modeling and Analyzing the Mean and Volatility Relationship between Electricity Price Returns and Fuel Market Returns." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 7 (June 23, 2016): 55. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n7p55.

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<p>This paper has two objectives. First, we apply the symmetric and asymmetric VAR(1)-BEKK-MGARCH(1.1), VAR(1)-CCC-MGARCH(1,1), VAR(1)-DCC-MGARCH, VAR(1)-VARMA-CCC-MGARCH and VAR(1)- VARMA-DCC-MGARCH models to explore the return and volatility interactions among electricity and other fuel price markets(oil, natural gas, and coal). Second, this paper investigates the importance of not only volatility spillover among energy markets, but also the asymmetric effects of negative and positive shockson the conditional variance of modeling one energy market’s volatility upon the returns of future prices within and across other energy markets. The empirical results display that these models do capture the dynamic structure of the return interactions and volatility spillovers and exhibit statistical significance for own past mean and volatility short-and long-run persistence effects, while there are just a few cross-market effects for each model.</p>
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Wu, Edward Ming-Yang, and Shu-Lung Kuo. "VARMA-EGARCH Model for Air-Quality Analyses and Application in Southern Taiwan." Atmosphere 11, no. 10 (October 14, 2020): 1096. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11101096.

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This study adopted the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model to analyze seven air pollutants (or the seven variables in this study) from ten air quality monitoring stations in the Kaohsiung–Pingtung Air Pollutant Control Area located in southern Taiwan. Before the verification analysis of the EGARCH model is conducted, the air quality data collected at the ten air quality monitoring stations in the Kaohsiung–Pingtung area are classified into three major factors using the factor analyses in multiple statistical analyses. The factors with the most significance are then selected as the targets for conducting investigations; they are termed “photochemical pollution factors”, or factors related to pollution caused by air pollutants, including particulate matter with particles below 10 microns (PM10), ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Then, we applied the Vector Autoregressive Moving Average-EGARCH (VARMA-EGARCH) model under the condition where the standardized residual existed in order to study the relationships among three air pollutants and how their concentration changed in the time series. By simulating the optimal model, namely VARMA (1,1)-EGARCH (1,1), we found that when O3 was the dependent variable, the concentration of O3 was not affected by the concentration of PM10 and NO2 in the same term. In terms of the impact response analysis on the predictive power of the three air pollutants in the time series, we found that the asymmetry effect of NO2 was the most significant, meaning that NO2 influenced the GARCH effect the least when the change of seasons caused the NO2 concentration to fluctuate; it also suggested that the concentration of NO2 produced in this area and the degree of change are lower than those of the other two air pollutants. This research is the first of its kind in the world to adopt a VARMA-EGARCH model to explore the interplay among various air pollutants and reactions triggered by it over time. The results of this study can be referenced by authorities for planning air quality total quantity control, applying and examining various air quality models, simulating the allowable increase in air quality limits, and evaluating the benefit of air quality improvement.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "VARMA model"

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Tonner, Jaromír. "Overcomplete Mathematical Models with Applications." Doctoral thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta strojního inženýrství, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-233893.

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Chen, Donoho a Saunders (1998) studují problematiku hledání řídké reprezentace vektorů (signálů) s použitím speciálních přeurčených systémů vektorů vyplňujících prostor signálu. Takovéto systémy (někdy jsou také nazývány frejmy) jsou typicky vytvořeny buď rozšířením existující báze, nebo sloučením různých bazí. Narozdíl od vektorů, které tvoří konečně rozměrné prostory, může být problém formulován i obecněji v rámci nekonečně rozměrných separabilních Hilbertových prostorů (Veselý, 2002b; Christensen, 2003). Tento funkcionální přístup nám umožňuje nacházet v těchto prostorech přesnější reprezentace objektů, které, na rozdíl od vektorů, nejsou diskrétní. V této disertační práci se zabývám hledáním řídkých representací v přeurčených modelech časových řad náhodných veličin s konečnými druhými momenty. Numerická studie zachycuje výhody a omezení tohoto přístupu aplikovaného na zobecněné lineární modely a na vícerozměrné ARMA modely. Analýzou mnoha numerických simulací i modelů reálných procesů můžeme říci, že tyto metody spolehlivě identifikují parametry blízké nule, a tak nám umožňují redukovat původně špatně podmíněný přeparametrizovaný model. Tímto významně redukují počet odhadovaných parametrů. V konečném důsledku se tak nemusíme starat o řády modelů, jejichž zjišťování je většinou předběžným krokem standardních technik. Pro kratší časové řady (100 a méně vzorků) řídké odhady dávají lepší predikce v porovnání s těmi, které jsou založené na standardních metodách (např. maximální věrohodnosti v MATLABu - MATLAB System Identification Toolbox (IDENT)). Pro delší časové řady (500 a více) obě techniky dávají v podstatě stejně přesné predikce. Na druhou stranu řešení těchto problémů je náročnější, a to i časově, nicméně výpočetní doba je stále přijatelná.
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Qi, Jing. "Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways." FIU Digital Commons, 2008. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/71.

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In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.
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Eriksen, Håkon. "Development of Calculation Model for Heat Exchangers in Subsea Systems." Thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-9115.

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Subsea processing can make production from otherwise unprofitable fields profitable. In subsea processing controlled cooling of the process fluid will often be required. Robust and simple solutions are desirable in subsea processing. Coolers that rely on natural convection from the surrounding seawater are therefore interesting, but control of the process fluid outlet temperature is hard to obtain in such coolers. In this study a calculation model for subsea coolers has been developed. The commercial software MATLAB has been used for developing a program. Heat transfer and frictional pressure drop correlations have been studied and recommendations are made for the model. The model is based on tubes in parallel, and the tubes can be oriented vertically or horizontally. The program allows for open, semi-open and closed arrangements on the waterside, and both natural and forced convection is implemented. The program has been tested through simulations of two test cases and found to be performing as desired.

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Tjøstheim, Sindre. "Chemical Looping Combustion Cold Flow Model commissioning and performance evaluation." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for elkraftteknikk, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-11059.

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SINTEF and NTNU are planning to build a 150 kWth Chemical Looping Combustion (CLC) reactor system. This is new technology and the CLC reactor system is going to be one of the largest of its kind in the world. The technology is promising for CO2 capture in terms of energy efficiency and economics. To verify the design a Cold Flow Model, CFM, has been built. In the CFM no reactions take place, but it simulates the hydrodynamics of the 150 kWth CLC reactor system. The reactor system consists of two reactors exchanging solids in a loop. The two reactors are one air reactor, AR, and one fuel reactor, FR. Air is injected at different locations in the CFM to fluidize the solids and achieve the proper mass flows. The Cold Flow Model has been commissioned and an experimental campaign was executed. A series of experiments running each reactor singularly were performed. The rig seems to be functioning satisfactory and a minimum of plugging in the pipes were observed. The Cold Flow model has two cyclones that showed collection efficiencies at approximately 99 %. This is important to avoid emissions of solids from the future CLC reactor system, both for economic and environmental reasons. An investigation and mapping of the operating area of the reactors singularly and coupled was the target of the experiments. Correlations between operating velocity, total solid inventory, air distribution and flux were found. Appropriate flow regimes, meant to give good gas solid contact efficiency, and mass flow’s entrainments were achieved. The targets of a solid circulation rate of 2 kg/s in the AR and 1 kg/s in the FR were also achieved. Air is injected in the bottom of the reactors to fluidize the particles. This air is distributed through primary and secondary nozzles. The highest primary air percentage tested in the FR, 75%, gave the highest flux. In the AR 100% was tested, but 70% gave the highest flux. The last result is in contradiction with other experimental work in the area which says that 100% primary air should give the highest flux. After the mapping of the operating area of the single reactors it was possible to try to run the two reactors coupled. The divided loop seal was tested but led to a pressure short circuit and a large amount of the total solid inventory was lost out of the cyclones in a short time. The operation of a divided loop seal is probably possible, but seems difficult. The internal part of the loop seals were sealed to make the operation easier. The loop seals could then be operated as traditional loop seals. A challenge was the mass balance between the fuel reactor and air reactor. The mass flows of particles from both reactors must be equal to have a mass balance. Otherwise all the particles eventually ends up in one reactor. Results from the single reactor experiments were used to know approximately which operating conditions gave a mass balance between the reactors. The Cold Flow Model seemed to a certain degree be self regulating for achieving a mass balance if initial operating conditions were reasonable. Two experiments with coupled reactors and mass exchange only through the loop seals were done. A global solid circulation rate of 0.7 kg/s and 1 kg/s was achieved. Both AR and FR had the proper flow regimes. Proper flow regimes in the reactors are turbulent or fast fluidization. A third experiment utilized a lifter to enhance the solid transport between the reactors. A lifter is a additional transporter of solids from one reactor to another. The lifter worked successfully. The experiment had a global solid circulation rate of 1.4 kg/s. The mass flows were 1.4 kg/s from the AR loop seal and 1 kg/s from the FR loop seal. The remaining part 0.4 kg/s from the FR to the AR was transported with the lifter. Both reactors had proper flow regimes. A fourth experiment trying to achieve a global solid circulation rate of 2 kg/s failed. The bottleneck seems to be the AR loop seal. Solids accumulated and the loop seal was not able to handle this rate of solid flow. A new operation philosophy and design of the loop seal has been proposed. The new design of the loop seal and operation philosophy reduces the air flow needed in the loop seal, but it may not necessarily solve the solid circulation limit in the AR loop seal. Further investigation is needed. Manipulating the pressure in the AR may contribute to enhance the rate of solid flow through the loop seal. The successful experiments were presented at the 1st International Conference on Chemical Looping, IFP-Lyon, France, 17 - 19 March 2010. After the experimental campaign was finished the experiments were simulated with the fluidization software ERGUN developed by Compiegne University of Technology. ERGUN applies different mathematical models. For the simulations performed Horio’s and Berruti’s model were applied. The evaluation of the ERGUN simulations by means of the experiments shows that Horio’s and Berruti’s model should not be used for a detailed investigation of the flow structure in the CFM’s risers. However, despite its strongly empirical nature, a preliminary investigation of the riser’s behavior with Berruti’s model may be useful. Berruti’s model is a reasonable tool for modeling the upper part of the pressure profile in the AR and FR at the operating conditions tested. The operating conditions tested in the AR are total solid inventories of 35 and 45 kg, and superficial gas velocities from 0.9-1.9 m/s. The operating conditions tested in the FR are total solid inventories of 35 and 50 kg, and superficial gas velocities from 1.5-2.0 m/s. Berruti’s model is not capable of accounting for the dense bed in the lower part of the reactor as Horio’s model does. However, Horio’s model mismatched the experimental results too much. Horio’s model seems to be a provide a better match at larger total solid inventory and smaller operating velocities, hence flow regimes not relevant for the CLC reactor system.
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Nilsson, Marita. "Proveniensprincipen : Vara eller icke vara - det är frågan i en digitaliseradinformationsförvaltning." Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34413.

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Detta forskningsarbete lyfter den problematik somdebatterats kring proveniensprincipen och den ombildningdenna princip har mött sedan digitaliserings ankomst.Studiens avsikt var att påvisa vilken innebörd principen haridag i en modern informationsförvaltning och deninformationshantering som sker där. Syftet var även attundersöka hur informationsförvaltningen arbetar proaktivtmed att garantera proveniens i all sin informationshantering,samt belysa hur proveniens förstås i förhållande till valet avmetod kring informationshanteringen.Undersökningen var kvalitativ och utfördes på tiokommunarkiv i form av att varje kommuns kommunarkivariedjupintervjuades. I undersökningen har även planer kringinformationshantering en studerats. Studien konstaterar vilkaförenklingar som digitaliseringen inneburit kring att säkerställa proveniens, där automatiserad och utvecklad metadataskapat verklig proveniens som kan påvisa informationenssamband med den process och det sammanhang där den harbefunnit sig. Uppsatsen diskuterar även de bekymmer somuppstår då digitaliserad information ordnas på helt andra sättän tidigare och vilka konsekvenser detta får för hur vi skaförhålla oss till och förstå proveniens.Resultatet visar att informationsförvaltningarna kan borga föryttre proveniens vad gäller arkivmaterialet men inte helahandlingsbeståndet. Studien fastslår vidare att inreproveniens som en spegling av organisationens verksamhetmåste förstås utifrån hela handlingsbeståndet och desslogiska ordning, snarare än utifrån arkivmaterialets synliga.Undersökningen konstaterar även betydelsen av proaktivitetkring arbetet med att tydliggöra informationens processuellakontext, samt tidig metadataapplicering ochsystemutveckling som behåller metadata genom allaprocesser. Uppsatsen understryker slutligen att detta inte görsi den utsträckning som är nödvändig.
This essay describes the debate about the principle ofprovenance and its multiple forms, and the transformationsof these forms, due to the coming of electronic informations.The thesis intended to explain the definitions of the principlein a modern information management and there explore howthey operate proactively to assure provenance.The qualitative investigation was carried out at tenmunicipality final archives, where each municipalityarchivist was being interviewed. The study expounds in whatway the digitisation has simplified the methods to conductassured provenance, where automated metadata shows therelationships of the information to function and process. Theessay also debates the difficulties that appear when digitalinformation are being organized in different ways thananalogue information, and how this fact requires a newinterpretation of the principle of provenance.The researcher concludes that the investigated archives,ensure respect des fonds when it concerns the content of thearchives, but not when it comes to the whole content of theinformation management. The result of the study also showsthat the respect of original order as a reflection of theorganization, has to be understood throughout all content ofthe management and its logical order, rather than the visiblecontent that the archives embrace. Furthermore the thesisobserves the importance of proactivity, regarding theclarification of the relationships between the information andthe processes that produce and use them. This could beachieved with early application of metadata and developmentof systems that keep metadata trough all processes. Theconclusion of the essay is that this is not pursued in theextension that is required.
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Kerala, Varma Vipin [Verfasser]. "Critical, statistical, and thermodynamical properties of lattice models / Vipin Kerala Varma." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1045276502/34.

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Alj, Abdelkamel. "Contribution to the estimation of VARMA models with time-dependent coefficients." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209651.

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Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l’estimation de modèles autorégressif-moyenne mobile

vectoriels ou VARMA, `a coefficients dépendant du temps, et avec une matrice de covariance

des innovations dépendant du temps. Ces modèles sont appel´es tdVARMA. Les éléments

des matrices des coefficients et de la matrice de covariance sont des fonctions déterministes

du temps dépendant d’un petit nombre de paramètres. Une première partie de la thèse

est consacrée à l’étude des propriétés asymptotiques de l’estimateur du quasi-maximum

de vraisemblance gaussienne. La convergence presque sûre et la normalité asymptotique

de cet estimateur sont démontrées sous certaine hypothèses vérifiables, dans le cas o`u les

coefficients dépendent du temps t mais pas de la taille des séries n. Avant cela nous considérons les propriétés asymptotiques des estimateurs de modèles non-stationnaires assez

généraux, pour une fonction de pénalité générale. Nous passons ensuite à l’application de

ces théorèmes en considérant que la fonction de pénalité est la fonction de vraisemblance

gaussienne (Chapitre 2). L’étude du comportement asymptotique de l’estimateur lorsque

les coefficients du modèle dépendent du temps t et aussi de n fait l’objet du Chapitre 3.

Dans ce cas, nous utilisons une loi faible des grands nombres et un théorème central limite

pour des tableaux de différences de martingales. Ensuite, nous présentons des conditions

qui assurent la consistance faible et la normalité asymptotique. Les principaux

résultats asymptotiques sont illustrés par des expériences de simulation et des exemples

dans la littérature. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à un algorithme qui nous

permet d’évaluer la fonction de vraisemblance exacte d’un processus tdVARMA d’ordre (p, q) gaussien. Notre algorithme est basé sur la factorisation de Cholesky d’une matrice

bande partitionnée. Le point de départ est une généralisation au cas multivarié de Mélard

(1982) pour évaluer la fonction de vraisemblance exacte d’un modèle ARMA(p, q) univarié. Aussi, nous utilisons quelques résultats de Jonasson et Ferrando (2008) ainsi que les programmes Matlab de Jonasson (2008) dans le cadre d’une fonction de vraisemblance

gaussienne de modèles VARMA à coefficients constants. Par ailleurs, nous déduisons que

le nombre d’opérations requis pour l’évaluation de la fonction de vraisemblance en fonction de p, q et n est approximativement le double par rapport à un modèle VARMA à coefficients

constants. L’implémentation de cet algorithme a été testée en comparant ses résultats avec

d’autres programmes et logiciels très connus. L’utilisation des modèles VARMA à coefficients

dépendant du temps apparaît particulièrement adaptée pour la dynamique de quelques

séries financières en mettant en évidence l’existence de la dépendance des paramètres en

fonction du temps.


Doctorat en Sciences
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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Chow, Chi-kin. "Some contributions to estimation in advanced time series models--VARMA and BSM." HKBU Institutional Repository, 1991. https://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_ra/6.

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Myrtrøen, Ole-Jørgen Feiring. "Vertical Stratification in a Ventilated Space : Comparison of Theoretical Predictions to Experimental Results from a Water Scale Model." Thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-8841.

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This study investigates the behaviour of a vertically distributed source of buoyancy on the vertical stratification in a ventilated space, an important factor for determining indoor comfort when using displacement ventilation. A new theory describing the behaviour of this buoyancy source in a ventilated space was presented previous to this work, but experimental results were required in order to validate the theoretical and numerical modelling. The behaviour of this source of buoyancy on the stratification in a ventilated space is studied for a mechanically ventilated at steady-state and for a linearly stratified environment using salt water in a water scale model. The stratifications were measured using a traversing conductivity probe and then compared to theoretical predictions by numerically solving the plume equations for the new theory in Fortran. High quality measurements were produced, showing excellent repeatability for stratification measurements at steady-state with deviations of less than 1 %. Moreover, the linear stratifications had linear best fits up to R2 = 0.999 by using the double-bucket method. The theoretical predictions of the influence of the vertically distributed source correlate quantitatively with the mechanically ventilated experiments, showing good agreement to the strength of the ambient stratification, the position of the first front and the ventilation flow rate. The experimental results for the determination of the height of a horizontal intrusion of fluid into the linearly stratified environment were severely affected by the occurrence of gravity current at the ceiling of the ventilated space and comparisons to the new theory was not successful because of this. A two-layer stratification is observed where the upper layer had a weakly stratified density profile, instead of the multi-layer stratification predicted by previous researchers in their theoretical model. This discrepancy is due to smoothing and vertical turbulent mixing in the water scale model. It is recommended that the characteristic of the membrane that is used in the water scale model is investigated in relation to the gravity currents for future research.

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Skrataas, Stine Mia Rømmesmo. "Compressible flows in process equipment: Problems, methods and models." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for energi- og prosessteknikk, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-13685.

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SIMPLE, SIMPLER, SIMPLEC and IDEAL are solution procedures originally developed for incompressible flows and staggered grids. For SIMPLE, SIMPLER and SIMPLEC, extensions for collocated grids and for treatment of flows at all speeds have already been proposed. For IDEAL, only an extension for collocated grids has been found, and an extension for treatment of flows at all speeds is proposed here. Extended versions of SIMPLE and SIMPLER are implemented in Brilliant, a multiphysics CFD-program developed by Petrell AS. These implemented algorithms are compared to the existing solution procedure in Brilliant, an extended version of the SIMPLEC algorithm. As expected, SIMPLE and SIMPLEC gave almost identical solutions for all the three presented test cases. The values given by the SIMPLER algorithm differed slightly from the values given by the two other algorithms. When simulating a shock tube, all three algorithms showed large deviations from the quasi-analytical solution in some regions of the shock tube. The SIMPLER algorithm spent the least CPU time for this simulation example, while SIMPLE and SIMPLEC spent less CPU time than SIMPLER when simulating methane flow in a pipe. Even though the CPU time was not registered for the last simulation example, a pressure relief pipe, it was noticed that the time consumption was much greater for the SIMPLER algorithm than for SIMPLE and SIMPLEC.
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Books on the topic "VARMA model"

1

Z, Markov Konstantin, ed. Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Continuum Models and Discrete Systems: 11-16 June 1995, Varna, Bulgaria. Singapore: World Scientific, 1996.

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1921-, Borisov Milko, Kirov N, and Vavrek Aleksandŭr, eds. Disordered systems and new materials: Proceedings of the Fifth International School on Condensed Matter Physics, Varna, Bulgaria, 19-27 September 1988. Singapore: World Scientific, 1989.

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Nauchno-tekhnicheska, konferent͡sii͡a s. mezhdunarodno uchastie "DZU" (3rd 1989 Druzhba Varna Bulgaria). Modelirane i simulirane na choveshkata pamet "MNEMO'89": III Nauchno-tekhnicheska konferent͡sii͡a s mezhdunarodno uchastie "DZU'89," 16-17 oktombri 1989 g., kurorta "Druzhba" Varna : rezi͡umeta. Stara Zagora: Tekhnologichen in-t po zapameti͡avashti ustroĭstva na magnitni diskove pri Dŭrzhavna firma "DZU"--St. Zagora, Sekt͡sii͡a Mnemologii͡a i bionichen izkustven intelekt--TIZUMD, 1989.

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International, Symposium on Computer Arithmetic Scientific Computation and Mathematical Modelling (1990 Albena Bulgaria). International Symposium on Computer Arithmetic, Scientific Computation and Mathematical Modelling, International Summer School on Mathematical Modelling and Scientific Computation: September 23-28, 1990, Albena (near Varna), Bulgaria. Albena, Bulgaria: Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 1990.

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Powell, Craig M. PTEN and Autism With Macrocepaly. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199744312.003.0010.

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Phosphatase and Tensin homolog deleted on chromosome 10 (PTEN) is a gene encoding an intracellular signaling molecule. PTEN was originally discovered as the gene responsible for a subset of familial hamartoma (tumor) syndromes associated with increased risk for certain cancers (Nelen et al., 1997) and as a gene often mutated in human cancers and tumor cell lines (Li et al., 1997; Steck et al., 1997). More recently, mutations in PTEN have been linked genetically to the clinical phenotype of autism or developmental delay with macrocephaly (Boccone et al., 2006; Butler et al., 2005; Buxbaum et al., 2007; Goffin, Hoefsloot, Bosgoed, Swillen, & Fryns, 2001; Herman, Butter, et al., 2007; McBride et al., 2010; Orrico et al., 2009; Stein, Elias, Saenz, Pickler, & Reynolds, 2010; Varga, Pastore, Prior, Herman, & McBride, 2009; Zori, Marsh, Graham, Marliss, & Eng, 1998). This chapter examines the role of PTEN in intracellular signaling, the link between PTEN signaling pathways and other autism-related genes and signaling pathways, the genetic relationship between PTEN and autism, model systems in which effects of Pten deletion on the brain have been studied, and promising preclinical data identifying therapeutic targets for patients with autism/macrocephaly associated with PTEN mutations.
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Viacheslavovich, Kalashnikov Vladimir, Penkov Boian Ivan 1927-, Zolotarev V. M, and Vsesoi͡u︡znyĭ seminar po problemam nepreryvnosti i ustoĭchivosti stokhasticheskikh modeleĭ (9th : 1985 : Varna, Bulgaria), eds. Stability problems for stochastic models: Proceedings of the 9th international seminar held in Varna, Bulgaria, May 13-19, 1985. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1987.

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Kalashnikov, Vladimir Viacheslavovich. Stability Problems for Stochastic Models: Proceedings of the 9th International Seminar Held in Varna, Bulgaria, May 13-19, 1985 (Lecture Notes in Mathematics). Springer, 1987.

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Stability Problems for Stochastic Models: Proceedings of the 9th International Seminar held in Varna, Bulgaria, May 13-19, 1985 (Lecture Notes in Mathematics). Springer, 1987.

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St, Chendov B., Sŭi͡u︡z na uchenite v Bŭlgarii͡a︡., Institut za filosofski nauki (Bŭlgarska akademii͡a︡ na naukite). Interdisciplinary Research Group on the Methodology of Mathematical Modelling., Institut za filosofski nauki (Bŭlgarska akademii͡a︡ na naukite). Interdisciplinary Research Group on Logical Systems and Applications., International Symposium on MMM (7th : 1994 : Varna, Bulgaria), and International Symposium on L & A (3rd : 1994 : Varna, Bulgaria), eds. Methodology of mathematical modelling IV: Scientific communications presented to the Seventh International Symposium on MMM, June 10-15, 1994, Third International Symposium on L & A, June 13-15, 1994, as well as to former symposia on MMM and L & A, "F. Joliot-Curie" International House of Scientists, St. Constantine Resort, Varna, Bulgaria. Sofia: Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Philosophical Sciences, 1994.

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Book chapters on the topic "VARMA model"

1

Hallin, Marc, and Davy Paindaveine. "Affine invariant linear hypotheses for the multivariate general linear model with VARMA error terms." In Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes - Monograph Series, 417–32. Beachwood, OH: Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/lnms/1215091951.

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Hallin, Marc, and Davy Paindaveine. "Affine invariant linear hypotheses for the multivariate general linear model with VARMA error terms." In Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes - Monograph Series, 417–32. Beachwood, OH: Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/lnms/1215091951.

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Gómez, Víctor. "Cointegrated VARMA Models." In Linear Time Series with MATLAB and OCTAVE, 263–78. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20790-8_8.

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Lütkepohl, Helmut. "Estimation of VARMA Models." In Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 241–83. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61695-2_7.

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Lütkepohl, Helmut. "Estimation of VARMA Models." In New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 447–92. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1_12.

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Lütkepohl, Helmut. "Estimation of VARMA Models." In Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 241–83. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02691-5_7.

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Gómez, Víctor. "Stationarity, VARMA, and ARIMA Models." In Linear Time Series with MATLAB and OCTAVE, 21–120. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20790-8_2.

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Gómez, Víctor. "VARMAX and Transfer Function Models." In Linear Time Series with MATLAB and OCTAVE, 121–72. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20790-8_3.

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Lütkepohl, Helmut. "Specification and Checking the Adequacy of VARMA Models." In Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 284–304. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61695-2_8.

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Lütkepohl, Helmut. "Specification and Checking the Adequacy of VARMA Models." In New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 493–514. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1_13.

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Conference papers on the topic "VARMA model"

1

Salma, S., G. Sivavaraprasad, B. T. P. Madhav, and D. Venkata Ratnam. "Implementation of VARMA Model for Ionospheric TEC Forecast over an Indian GNSS Station." In 2020 5th International Conference on Devices, Circuits and Systems (ICDCS). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icdcs48716.2020.243568.

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Koulocheris, Dimitris V., and Vasilis K. Dertimanis. "Parametric Identification of Vehicle’s Vertical Dynamics Using Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models." In ASME 8th Biennial Conference on Engineering Systems Design and Analysis. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/esda2006-95515.

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The assessment of vertical dynamics in modern ground vehicles is a difficult task with crucial importance, as it appears to be possessed by a number of conflicting objectives, such as ride comfort and stability. Thus, the effective use of possible control units is depended by the successful description of the vertical performance. The aim of this study is to provide a closed description of vehicles’ vertical dynamics using VARMA models, which are estimated by means of a novel, hybrid optimization algorithm and a corresponding estimation procedure. The hybrid algorithm interconnects the diverse characteristics of its deterministic and stochastic counterparts, while the estimation procedure assures the stability and invertibility requirements in the resulted models. For the practical implementation of the above, a five dimensional VARMA model is used for the description of a passenger vehicle, through the acquisition of noise–corrupted vertical acceleration measurements.
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Larbi, N., and J. Lardies. "Modal Parameters Estimation and Model Order Selection of a Structure Excited by a Random Force." In ASME 1999 Design Engineering Technical Conferences. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc99/vib-8095.

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Abstract A multivariate maximum likelihood procedure for the estimation of modal parameters is presented. The vibrating system is excited by a random force and sensors output only are used to estimate the natural frequencies and damping coefficients of the system. The method works in time domain and a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process is used. The information about modal parameters is contained in the multivariate AR part, which is estimated using an iterative maximum likelihood algorithm. This algorithm uses a score technique and output data only. The order of the AR part is obtained via the Minimum Description Length associated with an instrumental variable procedure. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the method for model order selection and modal parameters estimation.
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Stefanakos, Christos N., and Konstandinos A. Belibassakis. "Nonstationary Stochastic Modelling of Multivariate Long-Term Wind and Wave Data." In ASME 2005 24th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2005-67461.

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In the present work, a nonstationary stochastic model, which is suitable for the analysis and simulation of multivariate time series of wind and wave data, is being presented and validated. This model belongs to the class of periodically correlated stochastic processes with yearly periodic mean value and standard deviation (periodically correlated or cyclostationary stochastic process). First, the time series is appropriately transformed to become Gaussian using the Box-Cox transformation. Then, the series is decomposed, using an appropriate seasonal standardization procedure, to a periodic (deterministic) mean value and a (stochastic) residual time series multiplied by a periodic (deterministic) standard deviation. The periodic components are estimated using appropriate time series of monthly data. The residual stochastic part, which is proved to be stationary, is modelled as a VARMA process. This way the initial process can be given the structure of a multivariate periodically correlated process. The present methodology permits a reliable reproduction of available information about wind and wave conditions, which is required for a number of applications.
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Houtzager, Ivo, Jan-Willem van Wingerden, and Michel Verhaegen. "VARMAX-based closed-loop subspace model identification." In 2009 Joint 48th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC) and 28th Chinese Control Conference (CCC). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cdc.2009.5400695.

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Levieux, Guillaume, and Matthieu Montes. "Towards real-time interactive visualization modes of molecular surfaces: examples with udock." In 2015 IEEE 1st International Workshop on Virtual and Augmented Reality for Molecular Science (VARMS@IEEEVR). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/varms.2015.7151723.

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Lambev, Todor, Bogdan Prodanov, Lyubomir Dimitrov, and Iliyan Kotsev. "Digital terrain model of the Varna and Beloslav Lakes, North Bulgarian Black Sea Coast." In Eighth International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2020), edited by Kyriacos Themistocleous, Silas Michaelides, Vincent Ambrosia, Diofantos G. Hadjimitsis, and Giorgos Papadavid. SPIE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2571104.

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Rafailova, Genka, and Antonio Hadzhikolev. "ASSESSMENT OF SMART EXPERIENCE OF TOURISTS AND LOCAL CITIZENS IN TOURIST DESTINATION." In TOURISM AND CONNECTIVITY 2020. University publishing house "Science and Economics", University of Economics - Varna, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.36997/tc2020.563.

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The concept of smart city is used for development of smart destination with purpose of achieving competitive advantages and enhancing the quality of experience for tourists and quality of life for local citizens. There are wide accepted characteristics of smart tourist destination such as built smart infrastructure, smart technologies application as well as criteria for defining smartness of destination as digitalization, accessibility and mobility. But the main focus of development of smart destination is the creation of smart experience and smart business environment. That stresses the importance of assessment of how tourists and local citizens appreciate their experience. The aim of this paper is to present a model for study and assessment of smart experience of tourists and local citizens in tourist destination. The model is applied in tourist destination Varna. Results of conducted research of tourists and local citizens' view and acceptance, based on their experience, are presented.
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Viera Santos, Adriel, Iago Franco Bacurau, Jayne De Morais Silva, Talles Brito Viana, and Robson Gonçalves Fechie Feitosa. "Rede Neural Artificial Convolucional Aplicada ao Reconhecimento de Configuração de Mão nos Símbolos de 0 a 9 da Língua Brasileira de Sinais (LIBRAS)." In XV Simpósio Brasileiro de Sistemas de Informação. Sociedade Brasileira de Computação (SBC), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.5753/sbsi.2019.7432.

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A Lei brasileira número 10.436, de 24 de abril de 2002, reconhece a Língua Brasileira de Sinais (LIBRAS) como meio legal de comunicação e expressão. Entretanto, a comunidade não ouvinte, que faz uso dessa língua, possui muita dificuldade de comunicação com a comunidade ouvinte. Visando reduzir tal dificuldade, o presente trabalho descreve uma aplicação das redes neurais convolucionais para o reconhecimento dos símbolos estáticos da LIBRAS. Para validar o modelo, foi utilizada uma base de dados com cerca de 2640 imagens, com símbolos de 0 a 9 para treinamento; e, 1360 símbolos para teste. Além de um conjunto extra de 1000 símbolos para validação de mais casos de testes. Como resultados, obteve-se uma taxa de acerto que varia entre 82.5% e 98.57% para os diferentes símbolos.
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Varela Sánchez, Mauricio. "Modelos de geoide gravimétricos estáticos y dinámicos para Costa Rica." In I Congreso Internacional de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad Nacional, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.15359/cicen.1.90.

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En este trabajo se abordara el esquema de Stokes –Helmert para la obtención de diferentes modelos de geoide. Este esquema utiliza el segundo método de condensación de Helmert y la integral de Stokes, donde se define una nueva distribución de masas creando un nuevo modelo de Tierra, llamado espacio de Helmert. Se muestran 4 modelos de geoide para Costa Rica con una resolución espacial de 5’, donde para su cálculo se utilizó el modelo de terreno SAM3s_v2 y el modelo de mareas oceánicas DTU10 para completar y calcular las anomalías gravimétricas, junto con observaciones terrestres. Los modelos de geopotencial global GO_CONS_GCF_2_DIR_R5 y EIGEN6C4, aportaron las contribuciones de larga longitud de onda en el cálculo por medio de la técnica Remover – Restaurar, limitados hasta un cierto grado y orden. Por otra parte, es importante recalcar que la gravedad no permanece constante, varía con el tiempo en función de los cambios de masas debidos a diferentes eventos geofísicos que se pueden presentar.
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