Academic literature on the topic 'Vocational education technical level'

The implementation of Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) curriculum requires some level of government commitment because of it nature and important towards reducing unemployment. Technical vocational education is a skill acquisition intervention programs that target about learning wisdom which would make people appropriate and productive in designated areas of economic and technological activities. In order to meet the demand of this 21st century implementation of technical vocational education curriculum in Nigeria must in totality be overhauled by ensuring that what is needed to achieve its goal is put in place for positive outcome. This paper discusses the concept of technical vocational education and training and it’s important towards job creation, the nature of technical vocational education curriculum in technical vocational education institutions, technical vocational education curriculum implementation and the impediments of Technical vocational education curriculum implementation in Nigeria. It was concluded that TVET curriculum implementation faced a lots of challenges. Therefore, all stakeholders in the technical vocational education sub-sector should put hands in deck in order to improve the quality of technical vocational education programs implementation in Nigeria for better outcome

An investigation and validation of effectiveness of technical and vocational education at secondary level for poverty alleviation is need of the day. Four sub-components such as locale, age, education and socio economic status have been considered important in determining the effectiveness of technical & vocational education at secondary level for poverty alleviation. Out of 815 pass outs in Matric technology and vocational education during 2013, 2014 and 2015, the parents of 494 were selected through proportionate stratified random sampling technique for study. The study established that there is a significant positive strong relationship between parents’ perception towards effectiveness of technical &vocational education and poverty alleviation. The curriculum, assessment & evaluation and social aspects significantly and positively predicted the outcome variable poverty alleviation. The study is useful for policy makers, professionals, researchers and practitioners.

This study analyzed role of technical & vocational education and training in women empowerment process specifically in local level. In fact, technical & vocational education and training programs not only provide self-employment opportunity to the women but also trigger capability to exercise control over their personal and family life, make choices to improve well beings and take active role in decision making. For justifying central argument; what are the changing role of technical & vocational education and training that has been fostering women empowerment as well as social and economic development process in this VDC (Village Development Committee), the researchers employed quantitative case study research design and applied key informant interview, observation and household survey as data collection techniques. Researchers purposively selected 63 sample populations (10 respondents who completed technical & vocational education and 53 respondents who participated in vocational skill development trainings). The study found significant role of technical & vocational education and training that have been transforming women empowerment and social and economic development process in local level. More so, for promoting social and economic development process, capable and skilled women are equally playing; decision making, leadership, educational and change agent role in the VDC. The study concluded that technical & vocational education and training program conducting in local level help to nourish knowledge, ability and develop vocational skills of women and empowering them. Similarly, empowered women are also playing transformative role in social and economic development process of the VDC. Finally the ideas in which vocational education and training found to be means and ends for women empowerment in this VDC can be replicate in other similar settings.

Abstract The article presents the description of the current education and vocational training systems in Poland and the world with special emphasis on technical professions. It draws attention to the events and decisions, which led to a decreased level of education, lower quality of graduates and problems, the youth graduating from secondary and high schools have with finding a job. The studies of the authors on the effectiveness of vocational training systems lead to the presentation of an innovative proposal of deriving operational goals of education from professional tasks and developing a modular design of curricula. Such an approach towards the construction of vocational training programs is based on the model of a modularized occupation MES (Modules of Employable Skills). The described concept is supported by: high efficiency, flexibility and economic issues.

Vocational and Technical Education is the form of education that comprises of the training in skills necessary for gainful employment as well as acquisition of basic educational foundation in both sciences, applied sciences and humanity, all aimed at developing individuals with the right attitude to work and the competency necessary to compete favorably in a global society. This paper discussed the significance of Vocational and Technical Education in national development and productivity, highlighting its problems in Nigeria which among others include poor implementation of the TVE programmed which affect national growth and development. Suggestions raised include re-branding the Technical and Vocational Education programmed from the basic education level.

E-learning has been to be a very popular choice in the 21st century education world. E-learning able to meet a variety of learning needs tailored to each level of education. E-learning makes it easy for a teacher to give lessons to students without being bound by space and time anymore. Students can receive subject matter anywhere and anytime while at home, at school, and at work. Students can take advantage of discussion forums to discuss remotely through the use of collaborative learning tools available in e-learning. The goal to be achieved is to know the e-learning model for vocational education, namely vocational high school (SMK). In particular, this paper reviews the technical literature on the concept of e-learning, e-learning models, and the development of e-learning models in the context of TVE. Regarding e-learning studies, journal articles, opinion papers, conceptual papers, etc. are analyzed for content related to the e-learning model on TVE. It was concluded that the use of e-learning in vocational education such as Vocational High Schools was needed to assist teachers in improving the learning process. E-learning needs for vocational high schools as an effective learning media adapted to the vocational characteristics of each school.

This region of Southeast Asia shares more social and cultural ties with other Austronesian peoples in the Pacific than with the peoples of mainland Southeast Asia. Contemporarily, Asia Pacific is still the fastest growing economic region in the world despite economic turbulence and uncertainties in recent years due to the global economic slow-down. As one of centres of economic power, the region could hardly remain immune to the globalizing impact of economic and technological change. The purpose of this study was to explore the development of Technical and Vocational education in Malaysia and Indonesia by analyzing the history, policies, and its direction. In Malaya, the Technical and Vocational education prior to independence had projected the images of “colonial apprenticeship” with the emphasis on manual agricultural and crafts, which aimed at training the Malay students to fill positions in the Railway department under the Federated Malay States. After independence, Technical and Vocational education in Malaysia continued to grow, and some reforms have been implemented to improve the image of Technical and Vocational education itself. In Indonesia, a similar development occurred but the difference is in terms of Technical and Vocational education funding at the secondary level where there are many private Technical and Vocational schools as compared to Malaysia. There are new concepts introduced in Technical and Vocational education, such as the Tech-Prep, Time Sector Privatization and Vocational Colleges in Malaysia and Link and Match, Dual System, Product-based Curriculum, and Total Performance Management (TPM) in Indonesia, but the concepts are yet to be carried out optimally due of some constraints. The implications of this study are to identify the human capital development in the maritime Archipelago countries from the perspectives of the competitiveness and the preparation for dealing with the impact of globalization.

Actuality of research theme. In the current context of reforming the education sector, the problem of financial support for the initiated reforms needs special attention, since its success depends on the degree of its sufficiency. This fully applies to the system of vocational education, as in recent years the problem of shortage of workers has been actualized. It is possible to solve the problem of providing the leading branches of the national economy with personnel only in the conditions of sufficient level of financing of education in general and profesional-technical in particular.Problem statement. The issue of managing the reform process and decentralizing power to ensure the country's sustainable development is intrinsically linked to the educational reform process, so finding effective reform mechanisms and funding levels requires particular attention and in-depth theoretical and practical research. Analysis of the last researches and publications. Significant contribution to the consideration of the problem of development of education and its financing were made by Burkovskaya Ya. G., Vovkanych S., Petrenko V.P., Palekhova V.A., Semov L. [1-4] and others. Selection of unexplored parts of general issue. The formation of conditions for the sustainable development of the national economy depends on the level of provision of the necessary personnel, compliance with the level of their preparation to the requirements of the present, which cannot be ensured without sufficient level of education funding. Therefore, there is a need to study the effectiveness of funding mechanisms for profesional-technical education in Ukraine in the context of decentralization and reform of the administrative and territorial structure in the country. Task statement, research aim. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the level and mechanisms of financing the process of reforming and developing profesional-technical education in Ukraine. Method or methodology of realization of research. In the process of realization researches drawn on scientific (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analytical grouping) and special (abstracting, economical-mathematical design, etc.) methods of study of the economic phenomena and processes. Exposition of basic material (job performances). This paper analyzes the dynamics and mechanisms of financing the reform of profesional-technical education in Ukraine.As a result of the analysis of the structure of funding sources, it has been established that in recent years there has been a shift in the financial burden for the maintenance of profesional-technical education institutions from the state to local budgets.It is shown that according to the actual and planned indicators of financing, there is a coincidence in relation to the state budget with systematic failure to meet the planned indicators by local budgets.The effectiveness of financial support for the decentralization of profesional-technical education reforms has been analyzed. The results show that at the initial stage of reforms, their success was threatened by the under-financing by their local governments. At the state level, the problem was solved in 2016 through a stabilization grant.According to the analysis of the dynamics of the state budget subvention volumes to the local budgets for the modernization and updating of the technical and technical base of the profesional-technical institutions, its distribution between the regions of Ukraine and the level of implementation of the planned indicators, it has been found that during 2016-2018, its volumes increased from UAH 50 million to 100 million, and in 2019 decreased to the level of 2016. The actual amount of the subvention was lower than planned, which resulted in a total underfunding of UAH 11 million 235.3 thousand.The analysis showed that during 2016-2019, the regional funding priorities had changed, but the subsidy volumes did not depend on the size of the oblast and the corresponding amount of profesional-technical institutions in them.The conducted analysis showed that the highest level of subsidizing the modernization and updating of the material and technical base of vocational schools during the 2016-2019 years was received by Kharkiv, Kirovograd, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Ternopil and Kyiv regions. Poltava and Transcarpathian regions received the lowest subsidies in these years.Consequently, the imbalances in the distribution of subsidies are not justified and the subsidy mechanism needs a more prudent approach, since among the regions that have not received subsidies are those where there is a significant need for staffing.The foregoing makes it possible to conclude on the establishment of a system of financing vocational services, in particular continuous, non-deficit ways, taking into account regional needs of the labor market and the level of provision of educational services. It will be advisable in further studies to look for mechanisms to further attract financial resources for the development of profesional-technical education on public-private partnerships. It is promising to study the procedures for compensation of interest on credit resources by banking institutions in cooperation with stakeholders to improve educational services.Conclusions. The analysis of the dynamics and mechanisms of financing the reform of profesional-technical education in Ukraine shows that in recent years there has been a shift in financial burden for the maintenance of profesional-technical institutions from state to local budgets.It is established that there is a coincidence of actual and planned indicators of funding in the state budget and a discrepancy in local budgets.The level and effectiveness of financial support for the decentralization of profesional-technical education reforms have been analyzed. It has been shown that due to the underfunding of local budgets at the initial stage of reforms, their extension was in jeopardy. The situation was corrected by the use of a stabilization grant from the state budget.According to the results of analysis of the dynamics of the state budget subvention volumes to the local budgets for modernization and updating of the technical and technical base of the profesional-technical institutions, its distribution between the regions of Ukraine and the level of implementation of the planned indicators, it was established that during 2016-2019 the regional priorities for financing changed, but the volumes of the subvention did not depend the size of the area and the corresponding amount of profesional-technical institutions in them. The analysis showed that there are imbalances in the distribution of subsidies between regions, which is not justified, so the subsidy mechanism needs a more prudent approach, since among the regions that received subsidies are those where there is a significant need for staffing. The above makes it possible to conclude the establishment of a system of financing profesional-technical services, including continuous, deficit-free ways, taking into account the regional needs of the labor market and the level of provision of educational services (involvement of teaching staff of qualified specialists, exchange of experience, international internships, extension of the list educational services, etc.).

This article contributes to the debate on the efficacy of traditional forms of education versus vocational training. The effects of technical education (leading to an engineering degree or diploma) and vocational training in engineering on the performance of Indian firms are analysed using regression models based on the Cobb–Douglas production function, enhanced to incorporate education and training. Instrumental variable approach is used to establish the direction of causality. It is found that that when a larger share of workers in a particular sector has a college or university-level technical education or vocational education in technical fields, there is a positive impact on firm performance in those sectors. Further, higher education in a general field seems to consistently benefit the organised manufacturing sector, while some levels of school education appear to benefit the unorganised sectors. JEL codes: I-23; L-60; M-53

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the link between human capital depreciation and education level, with an emphasis on potential differences between general and specific education. Design/methodology/approach – A nonlinear wage equation, based on Arrazola and de Hevia's (2004) model, is estimated using data from the Swiss Labor Force Survey (SLFS) over the period 1998-2008, in order to estimate a human capital depreciation rate for several education groups. Findings – Human capital depreciation is significantly related to education type. Academic (“concept-based”) education protects workers more effectively against depreciation than vocational (“skill-specific”) education. Research limitations/implications – The SLFS survey is a rotating panel of five years and no retrospective data on earnings and employment are provided. A study of lifecycle earnings like the one proposed here would clearly benefit from a longer individual observation period. Practical implications – In all educational tracks, even vocational ones, a substantial time share should be devoted to the acquisition of general skills. Moreover, it is necessary to manage lifelong learning carefully in order not to waste initial investments in education. Originality/value – Instead of using a purely quantitative approach to separate workers by years of education, qualitative aspects of educational system are taken into account. Taking advantage of the Swiss educational system characteristics, workers are separated on the basis of their education type. Workers with vocational education (apprenticeships, professional and technical schools and universities of applied sciences) are assumed to possess a relatively specific human capital, compared to those with academic education (high schools and universities).

This study is about the state of vocational and technical education (VTE) in Ethiopia with particular focus on the factors governing the demand for and supply of middle level technical skills. Ethiopia is a low income agrarian country with a weak industrial base. Economic growth here presupposes, inter alia, the effective use of technologies. This, in turn, would call for the provision of middle level technical skills for deployment in various sectors of the economy. The theme of the study turns on the observations that: a) there is a chronic shortage of supply of middle level technical skills of various categories in Ethiopia; and b) VTE enrolment and expenditure on VTE are both assuming a declining trend. The burden of the thesis is to explain why VTE enrolment and expenditure have to be on the decline while shortfalls in the supply of VTE-based skills prevail. This problem, set in chapter IV, is investigated with the aid of data obtained from primary and secondary sources. The primary data derive from a sample survey covering a total of 420 individuals, including VTE and non-VTE students and employees. The secondary data were gleaned from a wide range of published and unpublished sources. Chapter V explains the problem set in chapter IV in terms of the prevalence of constraints circumscribing the activities of educational planners. Planners in Ethiopia are acutely constrained by the limited investment resources at their disposal. This, coupled with the fact that VTE is 14 to 19 times more expensive than non-VTE and the absence of any coherent manpower planning, would make planners reluctant to spend more on VTE. The consequence of this policy bias is to deprive VTE of qualified teachers and of adequate teaching facilities, thereby constraining the quality and quantity supply of VTE graduates. In chapter VI, the Problem is explained further in terms of the attitudes of individuals towards VTE and their demand for VTE. Results of the analysis of the survey data show that there is an underlying decline of interest in VTE, precipitated mainly by the socially and economically unattractive career prospects associated with VTE-related occupations. Those already in VTE-related employment are - much unlike their non-VTE counterparts - shown to be given to a high 'rate of frustration', arising from poor remuneration and unfulfilled educational and occupational aspirations. The persistence of frustration would make VTE employees ineffective in their jobs. It would also make entry into VTE less attractive thus constraining the scope for the expansion of VTE-based skill supply. The Preponderance, as at present, of such factors as cultural prejudices against VTE, the failure of the labour market to reflect shortages of skill supply by bidding up wage rates for the relevant skills, and policy restrictions on the vertical and horizontal mobility of labour, would only exacerbate the problem of excess demand over supply with respect to VTE skills. The study indicates the need for liberalisation of the labour market by removing the bureaucratic constraints on its operation, the adoption of policy measures enhancing educational and occupational prospects for VTE graduates, the adoption of cost-effective methods of providing VTE to be able to release resources for purposes of VTE expansion, and the reorganisation of VTE curricular structure in such a way as to make VTE professionally appealing to both employers and students.

The focus of this study is to determine the relationship between a Career and Technical Education (CTE) Information Technology (IT) teacher's self-assessed level of technology proficiency to the level of technology integration into the classroom, the prior work experience in the information technology field, the years of teaching experience, and the stage of adoption of technology. Participants were CTE IT teachers who were members of an IT teacher listserv that was established by the UNT Grant for Educational Excellence from the Texas Education Agency/CTE and teaching in Grades 9-12 in the state of Texas during the 2015-2016 school year. The study utilized a quantitative survey methodology to gain a perspective on the correlation of the variables. Three validated self-report instruments were administered via an online survey. The three instruments utilized were the Technology Proficiency Self-Assessment for 21st Century Learning, Concerns-Based Adoption Model-Levels of Use (CBAM-LoU), and the Stages of Adoption of Technology.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-02-03T10:53:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 juarinaanadasilveirasouza.pdf: 1737969 bytes, checksum: 2e359b3f1350f3d3db1a3e7292a95e69 (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-02-03T11:27:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 juarinaanadasilveirasouza.pdf: 1737969 bytes, checksum: 2e359b3f1350f3d3db1a3e7292a95e69 (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-03T11:27:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 juarinaanadasilveirasouza.pdf: 1737969 bytes, checksum: 2e359b3f1350f3d3db1a3e7292a95e69 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-20<br>A presente pesquisa analisa o fenômeno da permanência escolar nos cursos oferecidos na Educação Profissional de Nível Técnico, com ênfase no Curso Técnico Subsequente de Redes de Computadores, nas duas primeiras turmas iniciadas no segundo semestre de 2011 e concluídas no primeiro semestre de 2013, ofertado pelo Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte – IFRN, Campus São Gonçalo do Amarante – SGA. Busca-se com isso contribuir para a diminuição da evasão escolar tão frequente nos cursos técnicos subsequentes. A pesquisa tem como objetivo geral investigar os fatores que contribuem para a permanência escolar e, como específicos: analisar as percepções dos diferentes atores sobre o fenômeno investigado; estabelecer relação entre os diferentes fatores que vêm contribuindo ou dificultando a permanência escolar; analisar as estratégias que a escola tem feito para favorecer a permanência escolar; e elaborar uma proposta de intervenção pedagógica sobre o fenômeno em estudo. A perspectiva adotada foi o estudo de caso e a discussão foi embasada pelo referencial teórico que discute a questão da permanência e da evasão escolar na Educação Básica e no Ensino Técnico Profissional, focando em uma realidade de uma escola técnica profissional supracitada. Os instrumentos utilizados consistiram em análise documental, aplicação de questionário e entrevistas semiestruturadas, os quais permitiram a coleta de dados e análise qualitativa. Mediatizados pelas interfaces do contexto investigado, os resultados mostraram que os fatores relacionados à permanência ou à evasão escolar estão intrinsecamente relacionados aos aspectos internos à instituição, corroborando com o aporte teórico utilizado. Fatores como: o perfil/desempenho do corpo discente, os recursos e estruturas físicas escolares, os processos e as práticas pedagógicas foram citados como importantes para favorecer a permanência do aluno. Essas percepções foram ratificadas tanto pelos gestores e docentes, como pelos alunos, evidenciando que ambos apresentam visões semelhantes sobre a temática estudada.<br>This research analyzes the phenomenon of school retention in courses offered in Professional Education Technical Degree, with an emphasis on Subsequent Technical Course of Computer Networks in the first two classes started in the fall of 2011 and completed in the first half of 2013, offered by Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte - IFRN, Campus São Gonçalo do Amarante - SGA. Searching with this contribute to the reduction in truancy so frequent in subsequent technical courses. The research has as main objective to investigate the factors that contribute to school retention and as specific: to analyze the perceptions of different stakeholders about the phenomenon under investigation; establish the relationship between different factors that are contributing or hindering school retention; analyze the strategies that the school has done to encourage school retention; and preparing a proposal of pedagogical intervention on the phenomenon under study. The perspective adopted was the case study and the discussion was based theoretical framework for discussing the issue of permanence and truancy in Basic Education in Technical and Vocational Education, focusing on a reality of an aforementioned professional technical school. The instruments used consisted of documentary, a questionnaire and semi-structured interviews, which allowed data collection analysis and qualitative analysis. Mediated by the context in which it interfaces, the results showed that the factors related to the presence or truancy are intrinsically related to the internal aspects of the institution, confirming the theoretical approach. Factors such as the profile / performance of the student body, resources and school physical structures, processes and teaching practices were cited as important to encourage students to remain. These perceptions were ratified by both administrators and teachers, and their students, showing that both have similar views on the subject studied.

The textbook outlines the basics of designing and calculating the simplest and most widely used load-bearing structures in construction practice. Meets the requirements of the federal state educational standards of secondary vocational education of the latest generation. It is intended for students and teachers of construction colleges and technical schools, as well as other secondary vocational educational institutions that train specialists in construction specialties, primarily in the specialty 08.02.01 "Construction and operation of buildings and structures" with all its specializations of the basic level. It may be of interest to students of higher education, where the discipline "Building structures" is included in the curriculum, but is not a profile. It can be useful for construction technicians engaged in production activities or design work in the field of new construction or reconstruction in the housing and communal complex, especially in small businesses.

One of the essential elements for safe operation of a nuclear licensed site is the availability to the licensee in sufficient numbers of suitably qualified and experienced people to carry out and manage the operations and associated design work. In the last few years, there have been a number of reports to illustrate the recent and current problems of recruiting such people to work in the traditional locations for nuclear personnel in the North-West of England. Concern for the immediate future is exacerbated by a peculiar demographic of the people currently employed in positions demanding higher level skills. In response to the growing realization that there is an impending skills gap that needs to be filled, Sellafield Limited’s Talent Management team (and latterly with support of the NDA) have been working with a number of education and training providers to put in place bespoke courses aimed at overcoming this shortage. In the absence of a steady stream of willing graduates from technical and management courses, the primary strategy has been to encourage life-long learning and up-skilling amongst its employees, targeting those who, for whatever reason upon leaving school, missed their opportunity to study and progress to train at a high level, but who possess that potential and have now developed a keenness to proceed with that study in later life. One Foundation Degree has been selected for development of a unique approach to higher education. The work of University of Central Lancashire and its West-Cumbrian education and training partners has featured as a case study in other media, but this paper reports on a fresh development within that work: co-delivery. Co-delivery relates to a partnership of educationalists and industrialists, with an emphasis on industrial numbers on the course development steering group. The means by which a significant proportion of the course is strongly workplace related are presented and the benefits and problems that this introduces are discussed. The course uses the industry as a vehicle to communicate concepts and develop problem-solving skills. Rather than the major vocational aspects being confined to just a few ‘workplace’ modules, the industry permeates all modules and co-delivery is part of a good many. A report is also made on the areas of provision where the major capability and expertise is located in just a few industrialists; and how that aspect is learned within a co-delivery course.

The electronic course "Introduction to the engineering class" is an electronic educational course for the implementation of the module of the vocational guidance program of additional education for schoolchildren of a technical orientation. Powered by LMS Moodle platform, contains multimedia and interactive resources. Available through a browser with built-in FleshPlayer, no additional software required. The electronic course includes materials on mathematics, physics, astronomy. Classes based on the e-course involve the use of electronic course resources in teleconference mode and independent work mode.

The course is designed in the e-learning environment LMS MOODLE AND INTENDED FOR REMOTE SUPPORT of the 2d-year students' INDEPENDENT WORK IN THE DISCIPLINE «ENGLISH language» of the institute of radio electronics and information security and the Institute of Information Technology and Management in technical systems in Sevsu. The aim of the course is the bachelor training, who can speak foreign language in various situations of interpersonal and professional communication at the level of at least B1+ according to the international scale EVALUATION; IMPROVING THE INITIAL FOREIGN LANGUAGE level reached at previous levels of education; mastering of the necessary and sufficient level of competence FOR SOLVING SOCIO-COMMUNICATIVE TASKS IN VARIOUS spheres OF PROFESSIONAL AND SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES WHEN COMMUNICATING WITH FOREIGN PARTNERS; FURTHER SELF-EDUCATION.

Despite government efforts to reform teacher professional development (TPD) in the past four decades, Indonesian teacher quality remains low. Why have the improvement efforts failed? In the present study we investigate what caused these reforms to fail from two angles. First, we examine the efficacy of the latest teacher professional development (TPD) initiative in Indonesia, Pengembangan Keprofesian Berkelanjutan or PKB (Continuing Professional Development), and identify the factors affecting its efficacy. We found that some essential features of effective TPD are missing in PKB. The PKB programme has not targeted teachers based on years of experience, has not followed up teachers with post-training activities, has not incorporated teaching practice through lesson enactment, and has not built upon teacher existing practice. Second, our analysis demonstrates that PKB's weaknesses have existed in Indonesia's previous TPD initiatives as far back as four decades ago. This indicates that the long-term problem of TPD’s ineffectiveness is driven by different elements of the education system beyond the TPD’s technical and operational aspects. Our system-level analysis points out that merely improving the technical aspects of TPD would be insufficient given the Indonesian education system’s lack of coherence surrounding teacher quality. The problems surrounding the provision of effective TPD is more complex than simply a matter of replacing the “old” with the “new” initiative. The change requires a reorientation of the education system to produce high-quality teachers.

Despite government efforts to reform teacher professional development (TPD) in the past four decades, Indonesian teacher quality remains low. Why have the improvement efforts failed? In the present study we investigate what caused these reforms to fail from two angles. First, we examine the efficacy of the latest teacher professional development (TPD) initiative in Indonesia, Pengembangan Keprofesian Berkelanjutan or PKB (Continuing Professional Development), and identify the factors affecting its efficacy. We found that some essential features of effective TPD are missing in PKB. The PKB programme has not targeted teachers based on years of experience, has not followed up teachers with post-training activities, has not incorporated teaching practice through lesson enactment, and has not built upon teacher existing practice. Second, our analysis demonstrates that PKB's weaknesses have existed in Indonesia's previous TPD initiatives as far back as four decades ago. This indicates that the long-term problem of TPD’s ineffectiveness is driven by different elements of the education system beyond the TPD’s technical and operational aspects. Our system-level analysis points out that merely improving the technical aspects of TPD would be insufficient given the Indonesian education system’s lack of coherence surrounding teacher quality. The problems surrounding the provision of effective TPD is more complex than simply a matter of replacing the “old” with the “new” initiative. The change requires a reorientation of the education system to produce high-quality teachers.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.