Academic literature on the topic 'Whole life costs of building'

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is now being increasingly used as a technology tool to assist design professions in conceiving, designing, constructing, and operating the built environment in many countries. The BIM model provides design professions with the framework to perform exercises in design, programming, cost and value management, and concept energy analysis, in order to achieve the most economical and sustainable building solution. The BIM model though sophisticated is not extensively used to provide estimation software with the data requirements for Life Cycle Costing (LCC), such as, escalation of future expenditure and/or present value costs, discount rates, and study periods. Without incorporating LCC functionality within the BIM model or in an external application with a BIM interface a complete picture of the Whole Life Cycle Costs (WLCC) cannot be generated from the outputs of the model. The authors demonstrate the potential ability to customise traditional estimating packages with BIM take-off and database management interfaces, in order to find the best solution to provide complete Whole Life Cycle Costs Analysis (WLCCA). A template was produced in consultation with one of the internationally established methodologies in Life Cycle Costing (LCC) and provides the user with the financial tools to select the most economical advantageous solution, possibly without investing in new estimating software.

Recent national and international building regulations on the energy performance of buildings focus mainly on the reduction of operational energy. This can be achieved by increasing the energy efficiency of the building, installing highly efficient building service systems and applying renewable energy sources. However, these measures have a price in terms of investment costs, and also in terms of environmental impacts. The life-cycle of building materials, building constructions or whole buildings from cradle to grave can be assessed using the method of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Cost analysis (LCC). These tools take into account not only the heating energy saving due to additional insulation, but also the embodied environmental impacts and costs of the investment. In this paper, the optimum thickness of various insulation materials, including natural and recycled materials is examined considering three main environmental indicators and global costs. The analysis is performed for a typical Hungarian single-family house subject to retrofit.

Abstract The article deals with the issues of building exploitation and maintenance and focuses on the characteristics of the maintenance strategies mentioned in the ISO 15686-5:2017 Buildings and constructed assets - Service life planning - Part 5: Life-cycle costing. The article describes all three strategies recommended by the ISO standard (preventive, corrective and deferred maintenance). The purpose of the article is to conduct whole life costs analysis of three variants of modernisations, renovations and maintenance strategies for a selected building. The methods of economic efficiency assessment were used, such as net present value (NPV) method and internal rate of return (IRR) method.

Abstract The paper presents an approach to evaluating a building throughout its whole life cycle in relation to its sustainable development. It describes basic tools and techniques of evaluating and analysing the costs in the whole life cycle of the building, such as Life Cycle Assessment, Life Cycle Management, Life Cycle Cost and Social Life Cycle Assessment. The aim of the paper is to propose a model of cost evaluation throughout the building life cycle. The model is based on the fuzzy sets theory which allows the calculations to include the risks associated with the sustainable development, with the management of the investment and with social costs. Costs incurred in the subsequent phases of the building life cycle are analysed and modelled separately by means of a membership function. However, the effect of the analysis is a global cost evaluation for the whole life cycle of the building.

Abstract The model for estimating the whole life costs of the building life cycle that allows the quantification of the risk addition lets the investor to compare buildings at the initial stage of planning a construction project in terms of the following economic criteria: life cycle costs (LCC), whole life costs (WLC), life cycle equivalent annual costs (LCEAC) and cost addition for risk (ΔRLCC). The subsequent stages of the model development have been described in numerous publications of the authors, while the aim of this paper is to check the accuracy of the model in the case of changing the parameters that may affect the results of calculations. The scope of the study includes: comparison of the results generated by the model with the solutions obtained in the life cycle net present value method (LCNPV) for time and financial input data, not burdened with the risk effect; the analysis of the variability of results due to changes in input data; analysis of the variability of results as a consequence of changing the sets of membership functions for input data and methods for defuzzification the result.

Over the last hundred years the booming exhibition industry has promoted development, which in turn has led to environmental damage. The construction of exhibition buildings has been part of this phenomenon. At first sight improvement in energy efficiency techniques would seem to offset the increased energy demand from both exhibitions and exhibition buildings. However, whether energy efficiency technologies truly help to improve building performance to the point where a building is ‘environmentally friendly’ throughout its whole life-cycle is uncertain. This research is part of investigating whether energy efficiency technologies are really the easiest means to lower costs and energy requirements when the whole useful life of an exhibition building is considered. This article investigates the energy use of three case study buildings based on their operating and embodied energy flows. The results suggest that modern technologies for making exhibition buildings more sustainable may not be as effective as the simpler strategies used over 100 years ago. This suggests a different approach may be needed for sustainable development in the twenty first century.

The paper deals with estimating the life cycle cost and the whole life cost of a building. An original model for estimating the life cycle cost and the whole life cost of a building which allows the quantification of the increase in costs resulting from the incurred and assessed risk is presented. The proposed model consists of two basic parts: module I evaluating the impact of identified risk factors on individual element of the life cycle cost, and module II allowing to assess life cycle cost including the risk factors selected in module I. In module I the model of fuzzy inference of Mamdani was used. The structure of module II is based on the theory of possibilities and fuzzy sets. The operation of the model is presented on the example of an office building.

A common barrier to achieving design intent is the absence of comprehensive information about operational performance during design development. This results in uninformed decision-making which impacts on actual building performance, in particular Whole Life Costs (WLC). It is proposed that Building Information Modelling (BIM) has the potential to facilitate a more comprehensive and accurate design approach from the initial stages if the model can utilize reliable and robust cost and performance data from buildings in use. This paper describes the initial findings of a research project that has investigated the integration of WLC estimation into BIM processes. The study focusses specifically on the rapidly emerging Private Rental Sector (PRS) as the build-to-rent market has repeatable tasks and similar workflow patterns, roles and responsibilities, but impacts of WLC can significantly influence the business model. The study adopted a mixed method approach for the development and validation of a structured standardized process for timely WLC estimation through BIM. The research identified a number of barriers. These included varying definitions of WLC calculation methodologies; the availability and standards of data sources, in particular, the misalignment of coding systems for identification and classification of components at various levels of development, proprietary ownership of data, lack of knowledge and skills in team members to produce and/or utilize data sources, and limitations of software. However, the research proposes that these may be addressed by a reverse-engineered systematic process that uses the Integrated DEFinition (IDEF) 3 structured diagramming modelling technique that can be incorporated into a software model and has developed a model for a systematic approach for BIM-enabled WLC assessment based on CE principles which would include access to live data streams from completed buildings. The paper describes this model development which has the potential to enhance BIM lifecycle management through an augmented decision-making approach that is integral to the natural design development process.

Office retrofit building projects have become a subject of increased attention among building researchers in the United Kingdom, and in many economically advanced nations. Existing whole-life costing models have however, not proven to be robust enough to deal with these retrofit building scenarios. There is a growing body of evidence that conceptual modifications in the mechanics of whole-life cost modelling, could facilitate improvements in the long-term cost assessment of buildings. Recent research has made a case for the existence of revocability and disruption, in the appraisal of retrofit building investments. Revocability, connotes the potential for variability, in the future cost projections of a building over its estimated life. Disruption relates to the diminished building use, or unusability, over a period of implementing a retrofit initiative. Existing whole-life cost models have however, not recognised the implications of revocability and disruption in their framework. This study conducts an investigation into the whole-life costing of office retrofit building projects, and develops a Fuzzy New-Generation Whole-life Costing approach. Two office retrofit building projects are adopted, to appraise the identified issues in the whole-life costing framework. A number of building configuration permutations (BCPs) constituting different retrofit options, are developed in both projects. The potential implication of revocability and disruption, are evaluated based on probability and fuzzy logic principles respectively. Sensitivity analysis is applied to discount rate assumptions over the estimated lives, of the projects considered. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is used in analysing the ranking results of selected projects. This provided an assessment of the relative preference of BCPs in the projects. Results from the case studies show 1) disruption issues account for up to 12% of initial capital costs; 2) revocability accounts for up to 35% of initial capital cost, over a 20-year life; up to 119%, over a 60-year life; 3) up to 2% underestimation in the whole-life cost, over a 20-year life; and up to 45% underestimation, over a 60-year period, in the SPACE project; 4) up to 9% underestimation in the whole-life cost, over a 20-year life; and up to 53% underestimation, over a 60-year life, in the MS project.

The theoretical part deals at the beginning with evaluation of effectiveness of the project, as well as with the information about individual stages of the life cycle of the building, wear and tear of the buildings, lifetime of the elements and whole life costs of the building that are of particular interest to the investor. In conclusion, there are mentioned wastes and emissions. The thesis is completed by a case study of the family house where the whole life costs of the building life cycle are solved.

Els edificis d’energia neta poden ser entesos com a edificis, que durant un temps determinat generen tanta energia com consumeixen. Ja sigui des del punt de vista de l’oferta o el consum, la disponibilitat d’energia està relacionada amb alguns aspectes bàsics, com ara la font (s), la conversió, la distribució, l’ús, el malbaratament, l’optimització, l’eficiència i l’autonomia. Aquests temes revelen la complexitat del tema de l'energia i justifiquen l'atenció especial que li dóna la comunitat acadèmica. Per obtenir resultats tangibles en l'anàlisi d'aquests sistemes, en el nostre estudi ens centrem en la modelització i optimització de solucions energètiques aplicades a edificis o sistemes similars. D'altra banda, el període de temps dels objectes analitzats es va estendre fins al seu període de cicle de vida previst. Es van establir els objectius principals com: - Verificar i analitzar l’estat de la tecnologia de les energies renovables per a edificis i actius construïts i l’aplicabilitat de l’anàlisi de costos del cicle de vida a aquests temes; - Configurar models reproductibles d’edificis i les seves principals càrregues elèctriques, mitjançant eines d’enginyeria de processos assistits per ordinador, per procedir a simulacions i optimització, considerant-se com a font d’energia primària l’energia solar; - Quantificar, utilitzant estudis de casos reals i hipotètics, els beneficis de les solucions proposades, amb l'objectiu de realitzar tota l'avaluació de la sostenibilitat de la vida mitjançant la reducció de tot el cost del cicle de vida;
Los edificios de energía de red cero pueden entenderse como edificios, que durante un tiempo dado generan tanta energía como consumen. O bien, desde el punto de vista del suministro o el consumo, la disponibilidad de energía está relacionada con algunos problemas básicos, como las fuentes, la conversión, la distribución, la utilización, el desperdicio, la optimización, la eficiencia y la autonomía. Estos problemas revelan la complejidad del tema de la energía y justifican la atención especial que le presta la comunidad académica. Para obtener resultados tangibles en el análisis de estos sistemas, en nuestro estudio nos centramos en el modelado y la optimización de soluciones energéticas aplicadas a edificios o sistemas similares. Por otro lado, el período de tiempo de los objetos analizados se extendió a su período de ciclo de vida esperado. Los objetivos principales se establecieron como: - Verificar y analizar el estado de la técnica de las soluciones de energía renovable para edificios y activos construidos y la aplicabilidad del análisis de costos de ciclo de vida a estas cuestiones; - Configure modelos reproducibles de edificios y sus principales cargas eléctricas, a través de herramientas de Ingeniería de Procesos Asistidos por Computadora, para proceder a simulaciones y optimización, considerando como fuente de energía primaria la energía solar;
Net-zero energy buildings can be understood as buildings, that for a given time, generate as much energy as they consume. Either, from the point of view of supply or consumption, energy availability is related to some basic issues such as source (s), conversion, distribution, utilization, waste, optimization, efficiency and autonomy. These issues reveal the complexity of the subject of energy and justify the special attention given to it by the academic community. To obtain tangible results in the analysis of these systems, in our study we focus on the modelling and optimization of energy solutions applied to buildings or similar systems. On the other hand, the time frame of the analysed objects was extended to their expected life cycle period. The main objectives were stablished as: - Verify and analyse the state-of-the-art of renewable energy solutions for buildings and constructed assets and the applicability of life cycle costing analysis to these issues; - Configure reproducible models of buildings and their main electrical loads, via Computer Aided Process Engineering tools, to proceed simulations and optimization, considering as primary energy source solar energy; - Quantify, using real-life and hypothetical case studies, the benefits of the proposed solutions, aiming the whole life sustainability assessment through the reduction of the whole life cycle costing; and - Guarantee the reproducibility of the models and main general results of this study and make them public, to contribute with their applicability and further researches.

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2018.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references.
In order to design buildings with reduced environmental impacts, it is important to analyze and compare a variety of design alternatives starting at early stages of the design process. This dissertation discusses the development of a probabilistic life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology for single-family residential buildings called the Building Attribute to Impact Algorithm (BAIA), which was created to reduce the amount of time and detail required to conduct LCAs, thus facilitating their use for early design exploration. Within BAIA, the building geometry, systems, occupant behavior, and materials are defined by flexible attributes, with options organized into hierarchies representing different levels of precision or under-specification. Parametric models based on these attributes provide estimates of the material quantities and use-phase energy consumption of the building, and Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the variability in predicted impacts and costs resulting from under-specified attributes. Two design guidance methods are explored: sequential specification - in which influential attributes are iteratively identified and specified - and genetic optimization. The latter is found to be more efficient because it identifies solutions with lower impacts and costs while maintaining a higher degree of flexibility in the probabilistic design, as measured by information entropy. In a genetically optimized design, quasi-optimum design solutions with 75% of the optimal reduction of costs and impacts are shown to provide a 40% increase in flexibility over the optimized design. These quasi-optimum solutions are analyzed to identify which attributes are flexible vs. critical (having quasi-optimum ranges that are greater than or less than half of their initial under-specified ranges, respectively). Twelve cases are studied representing different locations, analysis periods, uncertainty in energy-related impacts, and weightings of costs vs. impacts in the optimization objective. Of the geometrical attributes, the building aspect ratio and window-to-wall ratios are critical, while seven others (including orientation, number of stories, and window overhangs) are flexible in all cases. Most occupant-related attributes (including window shading and natural ventilation) are also flexible in all cases. Among the systems-related attributes, the mini-split heat pump efficiency, air leakage, and ratio of LED lighting fixtures are critical in most or all cases.
by Joshua C. Hester.
Ph. D.

This thesis proposes that a baggage handling system (BHS) environment can be defined and coupled to a whole life cycle cost (WLCC NPV) model. The results from specific experiments using the model can be used as the basis by which to commercially compare BHS flight build types of any capacity, and BHS geographical location. The model examined the three flight build types(i): Fully automatic build2; (ii) Semi-automatic build, and(iii); Manual build. The model has the ability to calculate a bag flow busy hour rate, and to replicate the baggage flow characteristics observed within real BHS operations. Whole life cycle costs (WLCC NPV) results are produced, and these form the basis by which the comparison of BHS types is made. An overall WLCC NPV scatter diagram was produced, which is a summation of each of the test sensitivities. The assumptions and limitations of the analysis are provided. It is proposed that the results, conclusions and recommendations shall be of value to airports, airlines, and design consultants.

Public buildings and other public facilities are essential for the functioning and quality of life in modern societies, but they also frequently have a significant negative impact on the natural environment. Public agencies, with their large portfolios of facilities, have faced considerable challenges in recent years in minimizing their negative environmental impacts and energy consumption and coping with shortages of financial capital to invest in new facilities and operate and maintain existing ones, while still meeting their mission goals. These range from the need to provide a quality workplace for their staff to providing a public service and long term benefits to the public. The concept of green building has emerged as a set of objectives and practices designed to reduce negative environment impacts and other challenges while enhancing the functionality of built facilities. However, the prevailing belief related to implementing green building is that incorporating Green Building Strategies and Technologies (GBSTs) increases the initial cost of constructing a facility while potentially reducing its life cycle costs. Thus, this research deals with optimizing the design of individual facilities to balance the initial cost investment for GBSTs versus their potential Life Cycle Cost (LCC) savings without the need to conduct detailed life cycle cost analysis during the early capital planning and budget phases in public sector projects. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach for modeling the general relationship between investments in initial costs versus savings in LCCs involved in implementing green building strategies in public capital projects. To address the research question, this study developed multiple regression models to identify the relationships between GBSTs and their initial cost premiums, operating costs, and LCCs. The multiple regression models include dummy variables because this is a convenient way of applying a single regression equation to represent several nominal variables, which here consist of initial, operating, maintenance, and repair and replacement costs, and ordinal variables, which in this case are the GBST alternatives considered. These new regression models can be used to identify the relationship between GBST alternatives, initial cost premiums, annual operating costs and LCC in the earliest stage of a project, when public agencies are at the capital planning and budgeting stages of facility development, without necessarily needing to know the precise details of design and implementation for a particular building. In addition, this study also proposes and tests a method to generate all the necessary cost data based on building performance models and industry accepted standard cost data. This statistical approach can easily be extended to accommodate additional GBSTs that were not included in this study to identify the relationship between their initial cost premium and their potential LCC saving at the earliest stage of facility development. In addition, this approach will be a useful tool for other institutional facility owners who manage large facility portfolios with significant annual facility investments and over time should help them minimize the environmental impacts caused by their facilities.
Ph. D.

Thesis (M.S.)--Air Force Institute of Technology, 2007.
AFIT/GCS/ENV/07-M8. "March 2007." Title from title page of PDF file ; viewed: Nov. 28, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 47-50).

The aim of this research is to explore the sustainability of the existing residential buildings and to analyse how sustainability can be assessed if sustainable materials and technologies would be used. The main objectives are concentrated in providing a general knowledge of sustainability and to examine how much sustainable the residential buildings are. To analyze the various technologies and materials that can be used in order to reduce the climate-altering emissions, to improve energy efficiency, to reduce costs and to improve the living conditions. Providing knowledge and tools for the sustainable re-design of existing buildings, which will be addressed to environmental, technical, economic and social feasibility of proposed measures, and to energy control. For the analysis, different case studies in different countries will be studied and then a life-cycle approach will be applied to a theoretical residential building, and all the relevant impact categories for the selected type of buildings will be taken into account. In order to analyze the sustainability of the building, a qualitative research will be done using literature sources, international database, journal articles, technical and official reports from the government or group researchers patented and SimaPro software. Materials and dimensions will be defined and will be studied the integrated energy performance, CO2 emissions, global warming, acoustic comfort, thermal comfort, indoor environmental quality for existing residential building structures. All these steps will be taken in order to allow an LCA analysis of the materials of the residential buildings and to define when can be considered that the system has actually been sustained.

The purpose of this work was to determine the possible optimal cost effectiveness of various energy conservation options for new buildings in the local climate. The building energy analysis code Energy-10 was used for this purpose. Three types of savings have been evaluated: energy savings, operating cost savings, and Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) savings. To complete this study, a parametric analysis was performed on the influence on LCC savings due to variations of various individual components (including window characteristics, wall, floor, and roof constructions) and the whole-composite buildings. The initial part of the study focused on examining the impacts of individual components within the capabilities of Energy-10. For example, the impacts of a single window size, orientation, and construction were analyzed. While doing this, all of the other heat loss/heat gain paths were made negligible. Results of this aspect of the work were used to define a shorter list of components and building construction options to evaluate in the following composite-house studies. Then two general categories for the whole-composite buildings were evaluated to assist in analyzing the potential cost-effectiveness and benefits of buildings’ energy conservation options. In these studies, various energy cost escalation rates, economic life times, and replacement costs were considered. Building orientations relative the areal placement of fenestrations were also evaluated. Conclusions are given about combinations of construction elements that make the most economic sense for this rapidly growing population area. While Las Vegas climatic data are considered in this work, the conclusions are more generally applicable in the desert Southwest portion of the US.

Distributed electric generation systems are increasingly considered to offset energy costs and carbon emissions of large building complexes. College campuses, with their physical compactness, and diversity in building loads, present a common application for distributed generation systems. This paper presents the analysis approach and the main results of a feasibility study of a distributed generation system to supply electric and thermal energy for a large university campus, incorporating energy efficiency measures, to reduce carbon emissions at minimal life cycle cost. The presented study uses a load profile developed based on calibrated detailed simulation energy models for prototypical campus buildings. The calibration analysis is carried out using measured energy consumption data, at the individual building level, and the whole-campus level. Several combinations of distributed generation options are evaluated, using an hourly optimization analysis tool, to meet the entire campus hourly electrical and thermal loads. Proposed efficiency measures and distributed generation options are evaluated using different indicators, including life cycle cost and carbon emissions. The analysis results indicate that implementing energy efficiency measures to reduce electrical and thermal loads before implementing distributed generation options is the most cost-effective approach to reducing the campus’s energy-related carbon emissions. The results of the study are summarized to guide college campuses and managers of other urban districts as they adapt to a changing energy landscape.

Experience has shown that buildings on average may consume 20% more energy than required for occupant comfort which by one estimate leads to $18 billion wasted annually on energy costs in commercial buildings in the United States. Experience and large scale studies of the benefits of commissioning have shown the effectiveness of these services in improving the energy efficiency of commercial buildings. While commissioning services do help reduce energy consumption and improve performance of buildings, the benefits of the commissioning tend to degrade over time. In order to prolong the benefits of commissioning, a prototype fault detection and diagnostic (FDD) tool intended to aid in reducing excess energy consumption known as an Automated Building Commissioning Analysis Tool (ABCAT) has been developed. ABCAT is a first principles based whole building level top down FDD tool which does not require the level of expertise and money often associated with more detailed component level methods. The model based ABCAT tool uses the ASHRAE Simplified Energy Analysis Procedure (SEAP) which requires a smaller number of inputs than more sophisticated simulation methods such as EnergyPlus or DOE-2. ABCAT utilizes a calibrated mathematical model, white box method, to predict energy consumption for given weather conditions. A detailed description of the methodology is presented along with test application results from more than 20 building years worth of retrospective applications and greater than five building years worth of live test case applications. In this testing, the ABCAT tool was used to successfully identify 24 significant energy consumption deviations in five retrospective applications and five significant energy consumption deviations in four live applications.

The life quality of the world’s population and its development activities mainly depend on the availability, quantity and quality of fresh water. Water scarcity at many regions around the globe present challenges towards improving efficiency and rationalizing its use. The state of Baja California, México, is located at the northwestern corner of Mexico at a large semiarid region where rain incidence is very low (169 mm annually); thus, its water provision is also scarce. Federal and state governments have made efforts to guarantee water accessibility to its municipalities. The Río Colorado-Tijuana Aqueduct (ARCT) is a large water supply system that provides 5.33 m3/s of water to these cities. Its 6 pumping stations elevate the water 1,061 m through 147 km of pipes, canals and tunnels, and its total installed motor capacity is of 106,000 HP. Pumps are high energy consumers and represent a large fraction of operating costs in water supply systems. The volume pumped by the ARCT in 2010 was of 80.7 million of m3, while consuming 322.7 GWh annually at a cost of 23.8 million dollars. Implementing actions for the saving and efficient use of energy in hydraulic facilities is a worldwide priority to achieve rational water management and therefore national and regional sustainable development. Methodologies that improve energy savings while satisfying system performance criteria should be sought for better performance and management of the water supply systems. For building energy scenarios for such systems, it is necessary to integrate and adapt different methodologies for the simulation and assessment of behavior and performance taking in account hydraulic, electric and economic issues. This paper presents different approaches and results when these methodologies are applied for the case of ARCT.

In this paper, we describe an integrated design and management approach for building next-generation cities. This approach leverages IT technology in both the design and operational phases to optimize sustainability over a broad set of metrics while lowering costs. We call this approach a Sustainable IT Ecosystem. Our approach is based on five principles: ecosystem-scale life-cycle design; scalable and configurable infrastructure building blocks; pervasive sensing; data analytics and visualization; and autonomous control. Application of the approach is demonstrated for two case studies: an urban water infrastructure and an urban power microgrid. We conclude by discussing future opportunities to co-design and integrate these independent infrastructures, gaining further efficiencies.

Increased competition and low oil prices coupled with promising prospects for new oil and gas (O&G) reserves in the Arctic region has led to expansion of activities into the offshore Arctic. This brings along new challenges for the offshore logistics that need to be addressed. These challenges impose more stringent requirements for the logistics system setup, especially on the design and operation of vessels. Copying the logistics system and vessels designed for the North Sea operations is not a sustainable way forward. The few existing studies related to Arctic logistics mainly focus on ship technology solutions for cold and ice infested areas or solutions to the area-specific operational challenges for shipping companies. However, there is a need to understand how these solutions are connected and impact each other in a larger offshore supply logistics system, and thus address the challenges of Arctic logistics as a whole. A methodology for quick evaluation of the feasibility and costs of the logistics system in the early stages of offshore supply planning was developed and presented in previous research [1]. It allows for testing the effects of using alternative ship designs and the overall supply fleet composition on system’s cost and performance while satisfying prospective campaign requirements. Safety standards and requirements for emergency preparedness and environmental performance are taken into account while cost effectiveness of the logistics system as a whole is the main quantifiable measure. Building on the new methodology a simulation tool for remote offshore operations has been developed and is presented in current work. Simulation models allow us to consider the dynamic and uncertain nature of variables, such as variation in weekly transport demand, weather impact on sailing times and fuel consumption, and schedule deviations. The evaluation of the performance of a logistic system is done by simulating the logistic operation over a large number of scenarios. Input parameters are weather data generated from historical observations and probability distributions for transport demand. Output from the tool are key performance indicators for: system costs, logistic robustness and emergency preparedness. The tool consists of three main components: simulation of a regular supply logistics operation, simulation of emergency situations, and visualization of the simulated operations. The proposed methodology and tool are tested on real-life cases for offshore supply planning of drilling campaigns in remote areas for one of the major international O&G operators.

Truss structures are widely employed in the industrialized world. They appear as bridges, towers, roof supports, building exoskeletons or high technology light space structures. This paper investigates the simultaneous size, geometry and topology optimization of real life large truss structures using Genetic Algorithms (GAs) as optimizer and Finite Element Method as analyzer. In general the large truss structures are constructed from the duplication of some basic modules called bays. Thus, the final optimum design may be reached by optimizing the characteristics of the basic bays instead of optimizing the whole structure. Both single and multi-objective functions based on the mass of the structure and the maximum nodal displacement, have been considered as the cost functions. In order to have realistic optimal designs, the cross-sectional areas have been extracted from the standard profiles according to AISC codes and practical conditions are imposed to the bays. The design optimization problem is also constrained by the maximum stress, maximum slenderness ratio and the maximum and minimum cross-sectional area of the truss members. To accommodate all these constraints, two different penalty functions are proposed. The first penalty function considers the normalization of violated constraints with respect to the allowable stress or slenderness ratio. The second penalty function is a constant function, which is used to penalize the violations of the slenderness ratio. Two illustrative examples of realistic planar and space truss structures have been optimized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Increased production rates and cost reduction are affecting manufacturing in all sectors of the mobility industry. One enabling methodology that could achieve these goals in the burgeoning “Industry 4.0” environment is the deterministic assembly (DA) approach. The DA approach is defined as an optimized assembly process; it always forms the same final structure and has a strong link to design-for-assembly and design-for-automation methodologies. It also looks at the whole supply chain, enabling drastic savings at the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) level by reducing recurring costs and lead time. Within Industry 4.0, DA will be required mainly for the aerospace and the space industry, but serves as an interesting approach for other industries assembling large and/or complex components. In its entirety, the DA approach connects an entire supply chain—from part manufacturing at an elementary level to an OEM’s final assembly line level. Addressing the whole process of aircraft design and manufacturing is necessary to develop further collaboration models between OEMs and the supply chain, including addressing the most pressing technology challenges. Since all parts aggregate at the OEM level, the OEM—as an integrator of all these single parts—needs special end-to-end methodologies to drastically decrease cost and lead time. This holistic approach can be considered in part design as well (in the design-for-automation and design-for-assembly philosophy). This allows for quicker assembly at the OEM level, such as “part-to-part” or “hole-to-hole” approaches, versus traditional, classical assembly methods like manual measurement or measurement-assisted assembly. In addition, it can increase flexibility regarding rate changes in production (such as those due to pandemic- or climate-related environmental challenges). The standardization and harmonization of these areas would help all industries and designers to have a deterministic approach with an end-to-end concept. Simulations can easily compare possible production and assembly steps with different impacts on local and global tolerances. Global measurement feedback needs high-accuracy turnkey solutions, which are very costly and inflexible. The goal of standardization would be to use Industry 4.0 feedback and features, as well as to define several building blocks of the DA approach as a one-way assembly (also known as one-up assembly, or “OUA”), false one-way assembly, “Jig-as-Master,” etc., up to the hole-to-hole assembly approach. The evolution of these assembly principles and the link to simulation approaches are undefined and unsolved domains; they are discussed in this report. They must be discussed in greater depth with aims of (first) clarifying the scope of the industry-wide alignment needs and (second) prioritizing the issues requiring standardization. NOTE: SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are intended to identify and illuminate key issues in emerging, but still unsettled, technologies of interest to the mobility industry. The goal of SAE EDGE™ Research Reports is to stimulate discussion and work in the hope of promoting and speeding resolution of identified issues. SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are not intended to resolve the challenges they identify or close any topic to further scrutiny.

Effectively building resilience in today’s increasingly uncertain and complex world is crucial, especially for those in leadership positions. The current paper offers the following insights for leaders interested in building resilience: • A brief overview of what we know about resilience and burnout. This overview is informed by decades of research in leadership development. • A new, integrated framework for cultivating resilience in leaders: The CORE (Comprehensive Resilience) Framework. This framework is focused on four areas (physical, mental, emotional, and social) and takes a whole-self approach to resilience by developing a diverse set of responses to change and disruption. • A review of the eight practices designed to help build resilience within the CORE framework: sleep, physical activity, mindfulness, cognitive reappraisal, savoring, gratitude, social connection, and social contact. These practices were selected because there is empirical evidence of their effectiveness specifically in leaders and because they are simple, both in nature and in how they can integrated into daily life. Each practice review also includes tips for how to incorporate these practices into daily life. • A discussion of the practical and future applications of the CORE framework.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.