To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Win probability.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Win probability'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 33 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'Win probability.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse dissertations / theses on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Bernier, Christophe. "Forecasting Real-Time Win Probability in NHL Games." Thesis, Boston College, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:108029.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis advisor: Christopher Maxwell<br>Uncertainty is a key part of any sports game; without it, there is little reason to be interested in the outcome. This thesis attempts to quantify the uncertainty inherent in NHL hockey games by building a real-time win probability model that estimates both teams’ likelihood of winning based on what has happened in the game so far. The model is built using historical data from the 2009-2010 season all the way to the 2016-2017 season. Given the differential and the time left, the model evaluates historical data for that specific game-state and calculates a win probability. The model also uses a multi-regression approach to incorporate pre-game Vegas odds as a way to factor the strength of both teams; to my knowledge, this is the first publicly available hockey win probability model to do so. Finally, the model also factors in elements unique to the sport of hockey, like power plays and shootout periods<br>Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2018<br>Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences<br>Discipline: Departmental Honors<br>Discipline: Economics
2
Sagafi, Dean. "Pay to Win? The Influence of Capital Investment on Win Probability in the North American LCS." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2018. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2018.
Full textAbstract:
This paper uses a logistic regression model to assess the impact capital investment has on the probability of winning a game in the franchised 2018 North American League Championship Series. We have taken data from every game played across a variety of predictors to find that, though significant, capital difference provides at best an approximately 12% predictor of win probability. While other covariates tested provide statistical significance, the variability of these covariates make it hard to say with confidence what optimal in-game strategy is, beyond previously obvious notions of win condition.
3
Johnson, Matthew. "An Evaluation of the Effects of Decreasing Win Rate on Slot Machine Gambling." OpenSIUC, 2014. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/1592.
Full textAbstract:
Animal models can contribute significantly to our understanding of human gambling behavior. However, no proposed animal models of human gambling have been tested using human subjects. The purpose of the present paper was to validate an animal model of gambling with human subjects. Twenty undergraduate rehabilitation students (all women) were recruited and participated for extra course credit. Participants were presented with a concurrent choice between two different simulated slot machines; one machine with symbols and one machine without symbols. During the first 50 choice trials, the payout of the two machines was equated at 50% overall. For the remaining 50 choice trials, probability of winning on the machine with symbols was systematically decreased by 10% overall every ten trials until there was no probability of winning for the last ten trails. On average, participants showed a preference for the machine with symbols during choice trials when win rate was equated; allocating significantly more than 50% of responding to this machine. A repeated measures ANOVA indicated that response allocation to the symbol machine only significantly decreased in the final two conditions (10% and EXT) and did not decrease significantly across any other conditions. Results were also interpreted through behavioral economic analyses. Results indicate that conditioned reinforcement may affect the subjective value of probabilistic reinforcers in humans. These results are similar to those obtained with pigeons under similar conditions and may imply that animal models are relevant to the study of human gambling behavior.
4
Tuzilova, Kristyna. "Pre-play interactive trading in tennis: probability to win a match in Grand Slam tournaments." Master's thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/21760.
Full textAbstract:
With the recent innovations in technology, sports betting became more accessible to
any bettor, professional or not. An analysis of tennis and models applicable on the
estimation of the result of men’s tennis matches in Grand Slam tournaments allowed us
to identify a model with the capacity to predict the result with a 76,02% accuracy. The
selected model was applied on a case study, using Betfair as an example of an
‘exchange’ platform. This approach allows us to compare the estimated odds and the
odds present at the betting market in such a way that the predictive ability of the model
is assessed. Further developments are suggested in the conclusion; Resumo:
Negociação interativa pré-jogo no mercado de apostas de ténis: probabilidade de
ganhar um jogo em torneios do Grand Slam
Com os mais recentes avanços tecnológicos, a aposta desportiva tornou-se acessível
para qualquer tipo de apostador, quer amador, quer profissional. Uma análise ao caso
específico do ténis, baseada na aplicação de modelos para resposta binária ao resultado
de um jogo de ténis masculino durante o torneio do Grand Slam, permitiu-nos
identificar um modelo com a capacidade de prever o resultado para 76,02% dos jogos.
O modelo seleccionado foi aplicado num estudo de caso, usando Betfair como exemplo
de uma plataforma de apostas. O modelo permite-nos comparar as probabilidades estimadas e as probabilidades existentes no mercado de apostas, e identificar se a
previsão do resultado de um determinado jogo vai ao encontro das expectativas do
mercado. Desenvolvimentos adicionais são sugeridos na conclusão.
5
Alleva, Zach. "The Drivers of Success in the NFL: Differences in Factors Affecting the Probability of Winning Based on First Half Performance." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2016. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1371.
Full textAbstract:
This paper explores how changing various end game statistics effects a given teams probability of winning a game in the National Football League (NFL). Data from the 2000-2016 NFL seasons is split into two subsets, one for teams winning at halftime, another for losing teams. Using this data an empirical model is estimated to study how the determinants of a team’s success differ between the two sets of data. Overall, the factors which determine a team’s outcome are consistent between the two subsets, varying primarily by magnitude of the effect.
6
He, Yanping. "Representations of boundary layer cloudiness and surface wind probability distributions in subtropical marine stratus and stratocumulus regions." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/22585.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007.<br>Committee Chair: Dr. Robert E. Dickinson; Committee Member: Dr. Irina Sokolik; Committee Member: Dr. Judth Curry; Committee Member: Dr. Peter Webster; Committee Member: Dr. Rong Fu.
7
Jiang, Xin. "Risk Analysis of Wind Energy Company Stocks." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för matematik (MA), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-98039.
Full textAbstract:
In this thesis, probability theory and risk analysis are used to determine the riskof wind energy stocks. Three stocks of wind energy companies and three stocksof technology companies are gathered and risks are compared. Three difffferent riskmeasures: variance, value at risk, and conditional value at risk are used in this thesis.Conclusions which has been drawn, are that wind energy company stock risks arenot signifificantly lower than the stocks of other companies. Furthermore, optimalportfolios should include short positions of one or two of the energy companies forthe studied time period and under the difffferent risk measures.
8
Johnson, Paul E. "Uncertainties in Oceanic Microwave Remote Sensing: The Radar Footprint, the Wind-Backscatter Relationship, and the Measurement Probability Density Function." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2003. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/71.
Full textAbstract:
Oceanic microwave remote sensing provides the data necessary for the estimation of significant geophysical parameters such as the near-surface vector wind. To obtain accurate estimates, a precise understanding of the measurements is critical. This work clarifies and quantifies specific uncertainties in the scattered power measured by an active radar instrument.
While there are many sources of uncertainty in remote sensing measurements, this work concentrates on three significant, yet largely unstudied effects. With a theoretical derivation of the backscatter from an ocean-like surface, results from this dissertation demonstrate that the backscatter decays with surface roughness with two distinct modes of behavior, affected by the size of the footprint. A technique is developed and scatterometer data analyzed to quantify the variability of spaceborne backscatter measurements for given wind conditions; the impact on wind retrieval is described in terms of bias and the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The probability density function of modified periodogram averages (a spectral estimation technique) is derived in generality and for the specific case of power estimates made by the NASA scatterometer. The impact on wind retrieval is quantified.
9
Afonso, Lutcy Menezes. "Correcting for attrition in panel data using inverse probability weighting : an application to the european bank system." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/8155.
Full textAbstract:
Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão<br>Esta dissertação analiza técnicas de correção do efeito do enviesamento que pode ocorrer no caso dos dados utilizados apresentarem valores em falta. Tais técnicas serão aplicadas a um modelo económico para caracterização da margem líquida de juros (MLJ) bancária, utilizando dados provinientes 15 países que pertencem ao sistema bancário da União Europeia (UE15).
As variáveis que caracterizam os bancos são observados entre de 2004 e 2010. E são escolhidas seguindo Valverde et al. (2007). Adicionalmente aos regressores são acrescentadas algumas variáveis macroeconómicas. A seleção proviniente da falta de alguns valores para os regressores é tratada através da ponderação probabilistica inversa. Os ponderadores são aplicados a estimadores GMM para um modelo de dados de painel dinámico.<br>This thesis discusses techniques to correct for the potentially biasing effects of missing data. We apply the techniques on an economic model that explains the Net Interest margin (NIM) of banks, using data from 15 countries that are part of the European Union (EU15) banking system. The variables that describe banks cover the period 2004 and 2010. We use the variables that were also used in Carbó-Valverde and Fernndez (2007). In addition, also macroeconomic variables are used as regressors. The selection that occurs as a consequence of missing values in these regressor variables is dealt with by means of Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) techniques. The weights are applied to a GMM estimator for a dynamic panel data model that would have been consistent in the absence of missing data.
10
McCary, William D. III. "Performance Evaluation of UNT Apogee Stadium Wind Turbines." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2016. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849611/.
Full textAbstract:
The following report chronicles the University of North Texas Wind Turbine Project at Apogee Stadium. The timeline of events will include the feasibility study conducted by and for the university, grant awards from the Texas State Energy Conservation Office to fund the project, and a three-year sample of real time performance data since installation. The purpose of this case study is to compare the energy generation estimates by various stakeholders to the measured energy generation using a new but uniform performance relationship. In order to optimize energy generation in wind turbine generator systems, the most common wind speeds measured at the site should also be the most efficient wind speeds at which the wind turbine can convert the kinetic energy in the wind into mechanical energy and ultimately electrical energy. The tool used to convey this relationship will be a figure plotting the wind speed profile against the efficiency curve of the wind turbine. Applying this relationship tool to the UNT Apogee Stadium wind turbines provided valuable results. The most common wind speeds at Apogee Stadium are not the most efficient wind speed for the turbine. Also, the most common wind speeds were near the lower limit of the wind turbine’s performance parameters. This scenario was evident in both the energy generation predictions as well as the real-time recorded data. This case study will also present the economic analysis of the Apogee Stadium wind turbines using another tool that was not previously used in the feasibility study. The case study concludes with future steps to improve wind turbine performance, and to budget future cost using past, present and future energy savings.
11
Gardinier, Susan. "Does participation in the Food Stamp program or WIC affect the probability that an individual adult will reside in a food secure household?" CONNECT TO ELECTRONIC THESIS, 2007. http://dspace.wrlc.org/handle/1961/4168.
Full text
12
Roumi, Roumi. "Alcohol Monopoly in Sweden and Wine Properties That Drive the Wine Sales." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-275680.
Full textAbstract:
This research study in applied mathematical statistics, and industrial engineering and management aims to determine the wine properties that drive the wine sales in Sweden, while also examining how the monopoly in Sweden affects the alcohol sales and demand. Data were collected from Systembolaget, which is the only alcohol retail store chain in Sweden. A multiple linear regression analysis was performed on 4 931 observations from Systembolaget’s sales statistics of 2019. The covariates were the type of wine, taste, price, size, country of origin, ecologically classified and ethically certified. The final model contained 18 variables where the taste parameters dominated the model. The results conclude that wines from Australia, Italy and Portugal have an advantage when it comes to the wine sales in Sweden, while wines from Sweden have a negative correleation with the volume sold. Other results suggest that wine producers should make ethically produced wines. From an economic perspective, the alcohol monopoly in Sweden is not a regular monopoly. Moreover, the monopoly is considered to has had a negative impact on the alcohol sales by lowering the demand through a strict alcohol law, among other things. The positive aspects of Sweden’s alcohol monopoly is the overall better health of the Swedish society and the in-store consultation that is offered. This study has contributed to previous research and also given the wine producers a better overview of the factors that drive the wine sales in Sweden.<br>Denna forskningsstudie i tillämpad matematisk statistik och industriell ekonomi syftar till att bestämma de vinegenskaper som driver vinförsäljningen i Sverige, samtidigt som man undersöker hur monopolet i Sverige påverkar alkoholförsäljningen och efterfrågan. Data samlades in från Systembolaget, som är den enda butikskedjan för alkohol i Sverige. En multipel linjär regressionsanalys utfördes på 4 931 observationer från Systembolagets försäljningsstatistik från 2019. Kovariaterna var typen av vin, smak, pris, storlek, ursprungsland, ekologiskt klassificerat och etiskt certifierat. Den slutliga modellen innehöll 18 variabler där smakparametrarna dominerade modellen. Resultaten visar på att viner från Australien, Italien och Portugal har en fördel när det gäller vinförsäljningen i Sverige, medan vin från Sverige har en negativ korrelation med den sålda volymen. Andra resultat tyder på att vinproducenter bör göra etiskt producerade viner. Ur ett nationalekonomiskt perspektiv är alkoholmonopolet i Sverige inte ett vanligt monopol. Dessutom anses monopolet ha haft en negativ inverkan på alkoholförsäljningen genom att bland annat sänka efterfrågan med hjälp av en strikt alkohollag. De positiva aspekterna av Sveriges alkoholmonopol är den övergripande bättre hälsan hos det svenska samhället och konsultationen som erbjuds i butikerna. Denna studie har bidragit till tidigare forskning och även givit vinproducenterna en bättre överblick över de faktorer som driver vinförsäljning i Sverige.
13
Nielsen, Mark A. "Parameter Estimation for the Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2011. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/2509.
Full textAbstract:
The Weibull distribution, an extreme value distribution, is frequently used to model survival, reliability, wind speed, and other data. One reason for this is its flexibility; it can mimic various distributions like the exponential or normal. The two-parameter Weibull has a shape (γ) and scale (β) parameter. Parameter estimation has been an ongoing search to find efficient, unbiased, and minimal variance estimators. Through data analysis and simulation studies, the following three methods of estimation will be discussed and compared: maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), method of moments estimation (MME), and median rank regression (MRR). The analysis of wind speed data from the TW Daniels Experimental Forest are used for this study to test the performance and flexibility of the Weibull distribution.
14
Akbasoglu, Sinan. "Short-term Statistics Of Wind Waves Around The Turkish Coast." Master's thesis, METU, 2004. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12604722/index.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
In this thesis, the wind-wave records obtained at three locations along the Turkish coasts (Alanya, Dalaman and Hopa) are analyzed. Probability distributions of individual wave characteristics (wave height, wave period and wave steepness) are obtained and compared with the model distributions. Goodness of fit of the observed distributions is checked by Chi-square test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. Joint probability distribution of individual wave heights and periods is also studied and compared with the theoretical distributions. The relationships among various statistical wave height parameters and statistical wave period parameters are investigated and compared with the theoretical and reported values.
15
Bossavy, Arthur. "Caractérisation et prédiction probabiliste des variations brusques et importantes de la production éolienne." Phd thesis, Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2012. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00803234.
Full textAbstract:
L'énergie éolienne est aujourd'hui la source d'énergie renouvelable en plus forte expansion. Le caractère variable et partiellement contrôlable de sa production complexifie la gestion du système électrique. L'utilisation dans divers processus de décision, de prédictions du niveau de production à des horizons de 2-3 jours, permet une meilleure intégration de cette ressource. Certaines situations donnent néanmoins lieu à des performances de prédiction insatisfaisantes. Des erreurs dans la prédiction de l'instant d'apparition de variations brusques et importantes de la production, peuvent être responsables d'importants déséquilibres énergétiques, et avoir un impact négatif sur la gestion du système électrique. L'objectif de cette thèse est de proposer des approches permettant d'une part de caractériser ces variations, et d'autre part de prédire et d'estimer l'incertitude dans l'instant de leur apparition. Dans un premier temps, nous étudions différentes formes de caractérisation de ces variations. Nous proposons un modèle de rupture permettant de représenter le caractère aléatoire dans la proximité des ruptures d'un signal, tout en tenant compte des aspects borné et non-stationnaire du processus de production. A partir de simulations issues de ce modèle, nous réalisons une étude paramétrique destinée à évaluer et comparer les performances de différents filtres et approches multi-échelles de détection. Dans un deuxième temps, nous proposons une approche de prédiction probabiliste de l'instant d'apparition d'une rupture, reposant sur l'utilisation de prévisions météorologiques ensemblistes. Leur conversion en puissance fournit différents scénarii de la production, à partir desquels sont agrégées les prédictions de l'instant d'apparition d'une rupture. L'incertitude associée est représentée à l'aide d'intervalles de confiance temporels et de probabilités estimées conditionnellement. Nous évaluons la fiabilité et la finesse de ces estimations sur la base de mesures de production provenant de différentes fermes éoliennes.
16
Asghari, Mooneghi Maryam. "Experimental and Analytical Methodologies for Predicting Peak Loads on Building Envelopes and Roofing Systems." FIU Digital Commons, 2014. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1846.
Full textAbstract:
The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation.
In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data.
For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.
17
Kassir, Wafaa. "Approche probabiliste non gaussienne des charges statiques équivalentes des effets du vent en dynamique des structures à partir de mesures en soufflerie." Thesis, Paris Est, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PESC1116/document.
Full textAbstract:
Afin d'estimer les forces statiques équivalentes du vent, qui produisent les réponses quasi-statiques et dynamiques extrêmes dans les structures soumises au champ de pression instationnaire induit par les effets du vent, une nouvelle méthode probabiliste est proposée. Cette méthode permet de calculer les forces statiques équivalentes du vent pour les structures avec des écoulements aérodynamiques complexes telles que les toitures de stade, pour lesquelles le champ de pression n'est pas gaussien et pour lesquelles la réponse dynamique de la structure ne peut être simplement décrite en utilisant uniquement les premiers modes élastiques (mais nécessitent une bonne représentation des réponses quasi-statiques). Généralement, les mesures en soufflerie du champ de pression instationnaire appliqué à une structure dont la géométrie est complexe ne suffisent pas pour construire une estimation statistiquement convergée des valeurs extrêmes des réponses dynamiques de la structure. Une telle convergence est nécessaire pour l'estimation des forces statiques équivalentes afin de reproduire les réponses dynamiques extrêmes induites par les effets du vent en tenant compte de la non-gaussianité du champ de pression aléatoire instationnaire. Dans ce travail, (1) un générateur de réalisation du champ de pression instationnaire non gaussien est construit en utilisant les réalisations qui sont mesurées dans la soufflerie à couche limite turbulente; ce générateur basé sur une représentation en chaos polynomiaux permet de construire un grand nombre de réalisations indépendantes afin d'obtenir la convergence des statistiques des valeurs extrêmes des réponses dynamiques, (2) un modèle d'ordre réduit avec des termes d'accélération quasi-statique est construit et permet d'accélérer la convergence des réponses dynamiques de la structure en n'utilisant qu'un petit nombre de modes élastiques, (3) une nouvelle méthode probabiliste est proposée pour estimer les forces statiques équivalentes induites par les effets du vent sur des structures complexes décrites par des modèles éléments finis, en préservant le caractère non gaussien et sans introduire le concept d'enveloppes des réponses. L'approche proposée est validée expérimentalement avec une application relativement simple et elle est ensuite appliquée à une structure de toiture de stade pour laquelle des mesures expérimentales de pressions instationnaires ont été effectuées dans la soufflerie à couche limite turbulente<br>In order to estimate the equivalent static wind loads, which produce the extreme quasi-static and dynamical responses of structures submitted to random unsteady pressure field induced by the wind effects, a new probabilistic method is proposed. This method allows for computing the equivalent static wind loads for structures with complex aerodynamic flows such as stadium roofs, for which the pressure field is non-Gaussian, and for which the dynamical response of the structure cannot simply be described by using only the first elastic modes (but require a good representation of the quasi-static responses). Usually, the wind tunnel measurements of the unsteady pressure field applied to a structure with complex geometry are not sufficient for constructing a statistically converged estimation of the extreme values of the dynamical responses. Such a convergence is necessary for the estimation of the equivalent static loads in order to reproduce the extreme dynamical responses induced by the wind effects taking into account the non-Gaussianity of the random unsteady pressure field. In this work, (1) a generator of realizations of the non-Gaussian unsteady pressure field is constructed by using the realizations that are measured in the boundary layer wind tunnel; this generator based on a polynomial chaos representation allows for generating a large number of independent realizations in order to obtain the convergence of the extreme value statistics of the dynamical responses, (2) a reduced-order model with quasi-static acceleration terms is constructed, which allows for accelerating the convergence of the structural dynamical responses by using only a small number of elastic modes of the structure, (3) a novel probabilistic method is proposed for estimating the equivalent static wind loads induced by the wind effects on complex structures that are described by finite element models, preserving the non-Gaussian property and without introducing the concept of responses envelopes. The proposed approach is experimentally validated with a relatively simple application and is then applied to a stadium roof structure for which experimental measurements of unsteady pressures have been performed in boundary layer wind tunnel
18
Marcille, Robin. "Learning-based forecasting of metocean variables : a path to maintenance operations optimization for offshore wind energy." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Ecole nationale supérieure Mines-Télécom Atlantique Bretagne Pays de la Loire, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024IMTA0416.
Full textAbstract:
Les opérations de maintenance de l’éolien en mer sont sensibles aux incertitudes des prévision météo-océaniques. Les modèles de prévision numérique sont limités par leur coût de calcul pour l’estimation des incertitudes, ce qui pousse au développement de méthodes basées sur l’apprentissage profond. L’importance des mesures in-situ en mer est mis en exergue par les résultats de cette thèse. Une méthode basée sur le clustering non supervisé de données de modèle numérique est proposée pour la définition d’un réseau de capteurs optimal pour la reconstruction de la ressource en vent. Des méthodes d’apprentissage profond sont proposées pour la prévision météo-océaniques probabiliste. Nous montrons leur intérêt pour assimiler un grand nombre de données d’entrée. Une hypothèse de postérieur Gaussien et une approche générative utilisant les flots normalisants sont comparées. Ceux-ci permettent de relâcher les hypothèses sur la distribution postérieure, maintenant une capacité d’échantillonnage et de calcul exact de la vraisemblance. Un cas d’étude réaliste est construit sur une zone représentative pour l’éolien en mer en France. Pour la prévision jointe du vent et des vagues, les propriétés non-Gaussiennes des flots normalisants se sont montrées bénéfiques à la calibration de la prévision. Un cadre d’évaluation représentatif des opérations en mer est proposé incluant la génération de scénarios et mesurant l’impact économique et le risque lié à la prise de décision. Nous montrons qu’il est crucial de prendre en compte le risque dans la sélection et l’évaluation des modèles de prévision<br>Offshore wind energy maintenance operations are highly sensitive to forecast uncertainty. Numerical weather prediction are limited by their computational cost for the uncertainty estimation and the update frequency, which is an argument for the development of data-driven methods. The importance of offshore measurements is highlighted by the results. A method for designing an optimal sensors network is proposed using unsupervised clustering. This method has been used by the French weather service to define future networks of floating LIDAR for offshore wind. Deep learning models for the joint probabilistic forecasting of metocean parameters are proposed. Their relevance for assimilating a large amount of input data is demonstrated. A Gaussian posterior and a generative approach using normalizing flows are compared. It is shown that the use of normalizing flows can relax any assumption on the shape of the forecast probability density while maintaining sampling and likelihood computation capabilities. A real case study dataset is built on a relevant area for offshore wind. The probabilistic models are adapted for joint wind and wave forecasting, for which the non-Gaussian properties of the normalizing flows is beneficial for forecast reliability. An evaluation framework dedicated to offshore operations is proposed, including the generation of probabilistic scenarios and the measure of decision-making economic impact. It is shown that the search for an economic optimum in the probabilistic decision-making leads to higher risk during operations, and this should be taken into account for forecast selection and evaluation
19
Wahlström, Daniel, and Leo Wen. "Värdering av vindkraftsprojekt : En studie på risk- och avkastningsförändring vid försäljning av el till ett rörligt pris jämfört med ett fixt pris." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Produktionsekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-165073.
Full textAbstract:
I takt med ökat intresse för investeringar i vindkraft behöver aktörer på marknaden tillgång till mer information om vilka faktorer som kan påverka dessa investeringars förmåga att generera intäkter. Eftersom intäkter kan genereras genom att strukturera sin försäljning på olika sätt behöver intressenter erhålla bättre förståelse kring varje strukturs förmåga att generera intäkter över tid. I detta examensarbete har vi undersökt aggregerade intäkter och estimerade riskmått över ett år för tre försäljningsstrukturer: försäljning till Spotmarknaden, genom Baseload PPA och genom As-produced PPA. För att göra detta har vi försökt replikera fördelnings- och tidsserie-egenskaper för vindhastigheter, spotpriser och balanseringspriser. Försöken visar lovande replikerbarhet för vindhastigheter, och ganska lovande replikerbarhet för spotpriser och balanseringspriser. Vi visar att högre förväntade aggregerade intäkter uppvisar även tendens till högre estimerad risk. Den försäljningsstruktur som visar högst förväntade aggregerade intäkter var försäljning till Spotmarknaden, följt av Baseload PPA och lägsta intäkter erhölls genom As-produced PPA. Liknande rangordning sammanfattar estimerade riskmått, där försäljning till Spotmarknaden visade högst Value-at-Risk, följt av Baseload PPA och lägsta risken estimerades i As-produced PPA. Slutligen drar vi även slutsatsen att As-produced PPA är den största riskmitigeraren av de två olika PPA alternativen. Vår studie har genomförts under många avgränsningar och antaganden som behöver förstås ordentligt innan slutsatser från denna studie används. Några av avgränsningarna är att vi antar stationäritet i spotpriser, tar ingen hänsyn till förluster i kraftproduktion till följd av typ av landyta, undersöker endast ett vindkraftsverk och vi tar inte hänsyn till förluster i transmission eller kostnader från Nord Pool. Dessutom undersöker vi försäljningsprocessen för vindkraftsproducent som säljer all elektricitet själv och som inte har tillgång till handel genom Intradagsmarknaden. En ytterligare begränsning i arbetet är att vi inte har mätdata för historiska vindhastigheter vid en faktiskt planerad vindkraftspark, utan för en mätmast som är inom ett visst avstånd från några vindkraftsparker. Eftersom positionering av vindkraftsturbiner är extremt viktigt påverkar detta våra resultat då historiska vindhastigheter vid mätmasten möjligtvis inte är tillräckligt attraktiva för många investerare. Efter utvärdering av våra replikerade tidsserie rekommenderar vi vidare forskning inom området att ta hänsyn till icke-stationäritet vid skapande av modell för spotpriser.<br>As interest for wind power investment increases, market participants require access to more information regarding which factors that can affect the income generating capacities of their investments. Since income can be generated through various structures of selling electricity, stakeholders need better understanding regarding the income generating capacity of each structure over time. In this thesis we have examined aggregated income and estimated risk measures over one year for three different methods of selling electricity: selling to the Nord Pool Spot market, selling through Baseload PPA and selling through As-produced PPA. For the examination we have tried to replicate distributional and time series attributes for wind speeds, spot prices and regulating (balancing) prices. Our results demonstrate promising replicability for wind speeds, and quite promising replicability for spot prices and balancing prices. We show that higher expected aggregated income also implies higher estimated risk. Highest expected aggregated income was generated from selling to the Market, followed by Baseload PPA and lowest income was generated for As-produced PPA. Estimated risk measures followed the same pattern, where selling to the Market demonstrated highest Value-at-Risk, followed by Baseload PPA and the lowest estimated risk was found in As-produced PPA. Finally we also conclude that As-produced PPA is the largest mitigator of risk between the two examined PPA alternatives. Our study has been conducted under many delimitations and assumptions which need to be thoroughly understood before utilizing conclusions from this study. Some assumptions we take are stationarity in spot prices, no loss in power production due to type of surface surrounding the wind turbine, we only used one turbine and we assumed no losses in transmission nor any costs from Nord Pool. Furthermore, our study examines how electricity is sold from a wind power producer who sells all their electricity by themselves and who also does not have access to trading through the Intraday market. Another limitation in the study is that we do not have measurement data from actual wind farm locations, but data from a publicly available source that is within an undisclosed vicinity of some wind farms. Since positioning of wind power turbines is very important to maximize potential output, this limitation will affect our results since our used wind data might not be attractive enough for many potential investors. We finally recommend further study within the field, especially researching ways to handle lack of stationarity in spot prices.
20
Bai, Hao. "Machine learning assisted probabilistic prediction of long-term fatigue damage and vibration reduction of wind turbine tower using active damping system." Thesis, Normandie, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021NORMIR01.
Full textAbstract:
Cette thèse est consacrée au développement d'un système d'amortissement actif pour la réduction des vibrations du mât d'éoliennes en cas de vent avec rafales et de vent avec turbulence. La présence de vibrations entraîne souvent soit une déflexion ultime au sommet du mât d'éolienne, soit une défaillance due à la fatigue du matériau près du bas du mât d'éolienne. De plus, étant donné la nature aléatoire de l'état du vent, il est indispensable d'examiner ce problème d'un point de vue probabiliste. Dans ce travail, un cadre probabiliste d'analyse de la fatigue est développé et amélioré en utilisant le réseau de neurones résiduels. Un système d'amortissement utilisant un amortisseur actif, le Twin Rotor Damper, est conçu pour l'éolienne référentielle NREL 5MW. La conception est optimisée par un algorithme évolutionniste avec une méthode de réglage automatique des paramètres basée sur l'exploitation et l'exploration<br>This dissertation is devoted to the development of an active damping system for vibration reduction of wind turbine tower under gusty wind and turbulent wind. The presence of vibrations often leads to either an ultimate deflection on the top of wind tower or a failure due to the material’s fatigue near the bottom of wind tower. Furthermore, given the random nature of wind conditions, it is indispensable to look at this problem from a probabilistic point of view. In this work, a probabilistic framework of fatigue analysis is developed and improved by using a residual neural network. A damping system employing an active damper, Twin Rotor Damper, is designed for NREL 5MW reference wind turbine. The design is optimized by an evolutionary algorithm with automatic parameter tuning method based on exploitation and exploration
21
Snyder, Mark Alan. "Long-Term Ambient Noise Statistics in the Gulf of Mexico." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2007. http://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/595.
Full textAbstract:
Long-term omni-directional ambient noise was collected at several sites in the Gulf of Mexico during 2004 and 2005. The Naval Oceanographic Office deployed bottom moored Environmental Acoustic Recording System (EARS) buoys approximately 159 nautical miles south of Panama City, Florida, in water depths of 3200 meters. The hydrophone of each buoy was 265 meters above the bottom. The data duration ranged from 10-14 months. The buoys were located near a major shipping lane, with an estimated 1.5 to 4.5 ships per day passing nearby. The data were sampled at 2500 Hz and have a bandwidth of 10-1000 Hz. Data are processed in eight 1/3-octave frequency bands, centered from 25 to 950 Hz, and monthly values of the following statistical quantities are computed from the resulting eight time series of noise spectral level: mean, median, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis and coherence time. Four hurricanes were recorded during the summer of 2004 and they have a major impact on all of the noise statistics. Noise levels at higher frequencies (400-950 Hz) peak during extremely windy months (summer hurricanes and winter storms). Standard deviation is least in the region 100-200 Hz but increases at higher frequencies, especially during periods of high wind variability (summer hurricanes). Skewness is positive from 25-400 Hz and negative from 630-950 Hz. Skewness and kurtosis are greatest near 100 Hz. Coherence time is low in shipping bands and high in weather bands, and it peaks during hurricanes. The noise coherence is also analyzed. The 14-month time series in each 1/3- octave band is highly correlated with other 1/3-octave band time series ranging from 2 octaves below to 2 octaves above the band's center frequency. Spatial coherence between hydrophones is also analyzed for hydrophone separations of 2.29, 2.56 and 4.84 km over a 10-month period. The noise field is highly coherent out to the maximum distance studied, 4.84 km. Additionally, fluctuations of each time series are analyzed to determine time scales of greatest variability. The 14-month data show clearly that variability occurs primarily over three time scales: 7-22 hours (shipping-related), 56-282 hours (2-12 days, weather-related) and over an 8-12 month period.
22
Oyedapo, Olufemi James. "Optimisation des transmissions dans les réseaux de capteurs sans fil par technique MIMO coopératif à boucle fermée en environnement perturbé." Thesis, Poitiers, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014POIT2278/document.
Full textAbstract:
Le système MIMO coopératif est une solution attrayante dans un environnement où les trajets multiples signalent s'avérer être une étape stimulante pour le lien paire communication émetteur-récepteur. En effet, la diversité spatiale fournis par les émetteurs et recievers peut être exploitée pour améliorer la qualité du signal. Cette thèse étudie l'application de la boucle fermée précodeur MIMO pour réduire encore plus l'énergie de transmission dans un tel environnement. La contribution de cette thèse est de proposer des approches globales qui conduisent à l'optimisation globale des transmissions dans le système MIMO coopératif. Tout d'abord, on exploite la diversité spatiale des noeuds, et proposons une technique de sélection de noeud pour réduire l'énergie de transmission. Les noeuds sont sélectionnées en utilisant le linéaire boucle fermée MIMO précodeur max-dmin qui optimise la distance minimale (dmin) de critère pour réduire le BER de la constellation reçue, ce qui abaisse le rapport requis signal sur bruit (SNR). Deuxièmement, nous sommes motivés par une obligation de rendre les paramètres d'évaluation des performances MIMO disponibles aux couches supérieures du protocole. Ainsi, nous proposons une méthode théorique pour obtenir la fonction de distribution de probabilité (pdf) de dmin pour le précodeur max-dmin, nous utilisons le résultat de rapprocher le BER et de la capacité ergodique pour un système MIMO et une valeur de M en utilisant deux sous-canaux dans d'une manière rapide. Nous présentons un scénario qui exige que l'information pertinente soit détectée à partir d'une variété de sources situées à l'intérieur de la haute tension (HT) environnement du poste de réseau intelligent (SG) des applications. Notre contribution comprend le développement d'un outil de simulation basé sur la technique de sélection de noeuds pour le max-dmin distribué MIMO précodage. Pour tenir compte des interactions entre les couches multiples de communication, nous proposons de concevoir un système de communication MIMO coopératif complet basé sur un protocole d'échange de base qui est liée à notre scénario de transmission supposé. On construit en outre toutes les trames de sous-couche MAC, qui sont transmis dans ce système limité par le coût de l'énergie et de la synchronisation<br>Cooperative MIMO system worked from the spatial diversity provided by the transmitters and receivers locations to improve the quality of service in the communication exchange. In our work, we explored the application of closed-loop MIMO precoder to further limit the energy of transmission in such environment. Our contribution is to propose approaches that lead to global optimization of transmissions in cooperative MIMO system. Firstly, we exploit spatial diversity of nodes, and then a node selection technique to reduce the energy of transmission. The nodes are selected using the max-dmin linear closed-loop MIMO precoder which, optimizes the minimum distance (dmin) criterion to reduce the Bit Error Rate of the received constellation, thereby lowering the required signal-to-noise ratio. Secondly, we are motivated by a requirement to make the MIMO performance evaluation parameters available to higher protocol layers. Thus, we propose a theoretical method to derive the probability distribution function of dmin for the max-dmin precoder, then we use the result to approximate the Bit Error Rate and ergodic capacity for any MIMO system and any value of modulation size M using 2 subchannels in a rapid manner. To achieve our objective, we present a realistic scenario from an existing application case where data must be collected from a variety of sources located inside a high voltage substation environment (smart grid applications). Our contribution involves the development of a simulation tool based on node selection technique for the max-dmin distributed MIMO precoding. Finally, inside this transmission scenario, we propose a complete communication system based on a basic exchange protocol. We further construct all the MAC sub layer frames that are transmitted in this system constrained by energy and synchronization cost
23
Deschatre, Thomas. "Dependence modeling between continuous time stochastic processes : an application to electricity markets modeling and risk management." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PSLED034/document.
Full textAbstract:
Cette thèse traite de problèmes de dépendance entre processus stochastiques en temps continu. Ces résultats sont appliqués à la modélisation et à la gestion des risques des marchés de l'électricité.Dans une première partie, de nouvelles copules sont établies pour modéliser la dépendance entre deux mouvements Browniens et contrôler la distribution de leur différence. On montre que la classe des copules admissibles pour les Browniens contient des copules asymétriques. Avec ces copules, la fonction de survie de la différence des deux Browniens est plus élevée dans sa partie positive qu'avec une dépendance gaussienne. Les résultats sont appliqués à la modélisation jointe des prix de l'électricité et d'autres commodités énergétiques. Dans une seconde partie, nous considérons un processus stochastique observé de manière discrète et défini par la somme d'une semi-martingale continue et d'un processus de Poisson composé avec retour à la moyenne. Une procédure d'estimation pour le paramètre de retour à la moyenne est proposée lorsque celui-ci est élevé dans un cadre de statistique haute fréquence en horizon fini. Ces résultats sont utilisés pour la modélisation des pics dans les prix de l'électricité.Dans une troisième partie, on considère un processus de Poisson doublement stochastique dont l'intensité stochastique est une fonction d'une semi-martingale continue. Pour estimer cette fonction, un estimateur à polynômes locaux est utilisé et une méthode de sélection de la fenêtre est proposée menant à une inégalité oracle. Un test est proposé pour déterminer si la fonction d'intensité appartient à une certaine famille paramétrique. Grâce à ces résultats, on modélise la dépendance entre l'intensité des pics de prix de l'électricité et de facteurs exogènes tels que la production éolienne<br>In this thesis, we study some dependence modeling problems between continuous time stochastic processes. These results are applied to the modeling and risk management of electricity markets. In a first part, we propose new copulae to model the dependence between two Brownian motions and to control the distribution of their difference. We show that the class of admissible copulae for the Brownian motions contains asymmetric copulae. These copulae allow for the survival function of the difference between two Brownian motions to have higher value in the right tail than in the Gaussian copula case. Results are applied to the joint modeling of electricity and other energy commodity prices. In a second part, we consider a stochastic process which is a sum of a continuous semimartingale and a mean reverting compound Poisson process and which is discretely observed. An estimation procedure is proposed for the mean reversion parameter of the Poisson process in a high frequency framework with finite time horizon, assuming this parameter is large. Results are applied to the modeling of the spikes in electricity prices time series. In a third part, we consider a doubly stochastic Poisson process with stochastic intensity function of a continuous semimartingale. A local polynomial estimator is considered in order to infer the intensity function and a method is given to select the optimal bandwidth. An oracle inequality is derived. Furthermore, a test is proposed in order to determine if the intensity function belongs to some parametrical family. Using these results, we model the dependence between the intensity of electricity spikes and exogenous factors such as the wind production
24
陳美如. "Red-and-Black Games with Bet-Dependent Win Probability." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/95243847637059567877.
Full textAbstract:
博士<br>國立彰化師範大學<br>數學系所<br>95<br>In this thesis, we study two-person red-and-black games and proportional three-person red-and-black games in which at each stage the win probabilities are bet-dependent.
First, we investigate two-person red-and-black games in which, at each stage, the win probability of a player is a function of the ratio of his bet to the sum of both layers' bets. We find suitable conditions on the win probability function to ensure that a player's optimal strategy is timid play (or bold play) while the opponent plays timidly (or boldly). In addition, we also consider the game in which the win probability function varies at each stage,
and the game in which the bets have a lower or an upper limit.
Second, we investigate the proportional three-person red-and-black game proposed by Pontiggia. For this game, Pontiggia made a conjecture, and a counterexample has been
proposed by Chen and Hsiau. Following their works, we consider the model with corresponding weight of the form (w,w,1-2w). If 1/3<w<1/2 and the total fortune M in the system is not less than 8, then we show that a timid strategy is not optimal for a superfair player when the other superfair player plays timidly and the subfair player plays boldly. Next, if 0<w<1/3 and M is not less than 4, we can prove that it is Nash for every player to play timidly if he is superfair and to play boldly otherwise.
25
劉香銘. "On the Effects of Various Win Probability Functions in a Gambling Game." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16318054260236549997.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立彰化師範大學<br>數學系所<br>99<br>Abstract
Two people A and B play a game. In each play, the loser must pay a dollar to the winner. The game goes on until one of the players is ruined. In this study, we set the win probability function of each play to be increasing with A’s present amount of money and symmetric about the half of two people’s total amount of money. We first get the
probability of A winning the total amount of money, and then we study the effect of win probability function on the probability of A winning the total amount of money, and
mean and variance of the number of plays required to finish the game.
26
Porth, Lysa M. "Application of an SPRT-like test to determine the best probability forecasting model for the win, quinella and exacta wager." 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1993/20408.
Full text
27
Li, Hsuan-Chang, and 李軒誠. "The Simulation of Annual Maximum Wind and Probability Distribution of Taiwan." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/68472233619643225952.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>淡江大學<br>土木工程學系碩士班<br>102<br>Taiwan is an island located in the western Pacific Ocean and suffered from strong winds, such as tropical cyclones or typhoons in the summer season and monsoons in the winter season. To give a wind resistant design of a structure, specialists and structural engineers need to understand the local design wind speed in detail. However, due to the lack of observed wind speed data, numerical models are developed to simulate design wind speed.
In this study, analysis on annual maximum wind speed and the peak wind speed during a typhoon event is executed. 29 meteorological stations in Taiwan are collected to understand the basic statistical parameters of 10-minute mean wind speeds. Further, the trend of annual maximum wind speed and the highly correlated third and fourth moments are found.
To tell the extreme distribution of 29 stations, the GEVD extreme value distribution model is applied. Then a non-Gaussian simulation technique called Hermite-based transform is adopted for simulation of annual maximum wind speed for each station by inputting their statistical parameters. Results show that even the simulation is based on short term period record, the non-Gaussian simulation method to simulation the annual maximum wind speed provides fairly good agreement with the full-year observation. Finally in this study, the typhoon event is especially picked up among 4 stations, Yilan , Aliahsn , Hsinchu , Kaohsiung, to show the inconsistence with the distribution with annual maximum wind speeds. The GEVD model is also applied for discussion.
28
Ge, Hai-Wen [Verfasser]. "Probability density function modeling of turbulent non-reactive and reactive spray flows / vorgelegt von Hai-Wen Ge." 2006. http://d-nb.info/979907667/34.
Full text
29
Hu, Chia-Ming, and 胡家銘. "Investigation on probability characteristics of different averaging-time velocity data and its effect on design wind speed prediction." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/4cc34p.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>淡江大學<br>土木工程學系碩士班<br>106<br>Taiwan is in the geographical position of multiple typhoons and earthquakes. The design of high-rise buildings must not only consider earthquake resistance, but also the impact of wind on structures. Taiwan''s current building wind resistance design specification estimates the design wind speed value based on the 10-minute average wind speed during the 50-year regression period. However, the average wind speed time used in different countries is different. There should be a constant conversion mode between different averaging time. For example, Durst Curve is used to calculate the wind speed value conversion at different averaging time.
This study first used the five stations in Japan, namely Hachinohe, Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, and Kagoshima. The statistics were collected from the typhoon within 300 kilometers of the station from 2001 to 2007, and calculated. Each of the basic statistical characteristics of the typhoon''s mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis, and then combine the statistical characteristics of all the selected typhoons to calculate the statistical characteristics of the four regions, and use MATLAB to generate Gaussian distribution random numbers, and Using the non-Gaussian transformations proposed by Kwon and Kareem and Kanda and Lo, and the Weber simulation, a simulated extremum of the simulated typhoon is generated, which is the maximum simulated wind speed. A cumulative probability density distribution function curve is made using every hundred extreme values. Repeat one hundred sets of distribution curves and take the average line as the cumulative probability density distribution function curve representing the characteristics of this station, and observe its non-Gaussian distribution. The tail characteristics are classified into Gumbel distribution, Weibull distribution, and Frechet distribution, and the tail characteristics are discussed.
Then, using the average time length in the Durst curve formula, the average wind speed conversion formula is converted into a 10-minute average time simulated wind speed and a 60-minute average time simulated wind speed converted into a 10-minute average time theoretical wind speed. The relationship between the theoretical wind speed of the 10-minute average time after the theoretical formula conversion and the simulated 10 minute average time simulated wind speed.
In order to understand the influence of non-Gaussian on the average time conversion, Gaussian extremum simulations were performed for the typhoon mean wind speed values and standard deviations of each station, and compared with non-Gaussian results. The final list identifies the percentage of conversion error for different regression periods and indicates the reasons for the instability that may occur with the Durst Curve.
30
Hong-MingChen and 陳宏銘. "Modeling Probability of Landslides on Roadway Network - A Case Study of Tseng-wen Catchment Area and Siraya National Scenic Area in Southern Taiwan." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/bcpgsw.
Full textAbstract:
碩士<br>國立成功大學<br>都市計劃學系碩博士班<br>101<br>Lashing Taiwan in 2009 with record-braking rainfalls, Typhoon Morakot caused large-scale flooding in southern Taiwan, killed at least four people, resulted in more than 35 missing residents, and affected tens of thousands of farmers with more than NT$1 billion in damages. In the aftermath of typhoon, the catchment areas were devastated by debris flow and associated landslides on roadway network. How to maintain the accessibility of the roadway systems in the catchment areas under the conditions of extreme climate? Searching the answer to the question becomes our crucial mission in the stages of disastrous prevention and post-disastrous management. Our study aims to explore the factors affecting the probability of landslide on roadway systems and to build up a prediction model by applying Logistic regression to analyze data related to three categories: 1) the geological and geographical characteristics of the catchment area; 2) the design and construction characteristics of the roadway system; 3) the meteorological conditions of the catchment area. ; and 4) the land use. The result of our estimation suggests that the amount of peak hourly rainfall, the roadside slope, and the strength of bedrock and road base are the major factors affecting the probability of landslide.
31
Nuta, Elena. "Seismic Analysis of Steel Wind Turbine Towers in the Canadian Environment." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/24269.
Full textAbstract:
The seismic response of steel monopole wind turbine towers is investigated and their risk is assessed in the Canadian seismic environment. This topic is of concern as wind turbines are increasingly being installed in seismic areas and design codes do not clearly address this aspect of design. An implicit finite element model of a 1.65MW tower was developed and validated. Incremental dynamic analysis was carried out to evaluate its behaviour under seismic excitation, to define several damage states, and to develop a framework for determining its probability of damage. This framework was implemented in two Canadian locations, where the risk was found to be low for the seismic hazard level prescribed for buildings. However, the design of wind turbine towers is subject to change, as is the design spectrum. Thus, a methodology is outlined to thoroughly investigate the probability of reaching predetermined damage states under seismic loading for future considerations.
32
Bera, Titas. "Application of Randomized Algorithms in Path Planning and Control of a Micro Air Vehicle." Thesis, 2015. http://etd.iisc.ac.in/handle/2005/3756.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis focuses on the design and development of a fixed wing micro air vehicle (MAV) and on the development of randomized sampling based motion planning and control algorithms for path planning and stabilization of the MAV. In addition, the thesis also contains probabilis-tic analyses of the algorithmic properties of randomized sampling based algorithms, such as completeness and asymptotic optimality.
The thesis begins with a detailed discussion on aerodynamic design, computational fluid dy-namic simulations of propeller wake, wind tunnel tests of a 150mm fixed wing micro air ve-hicle. The vehicle is designed in such a way that in spite of the various adverse effects of low Reynolds number aerodynamics and the complex propeller wake interactions with the airframe, the vehicle shows a balance of external forces and moments at most of the operating conditions. This is supported by various CFD analysis and wind tunnel tests and is shown in this thesis. The thesis also contains a reasonably accurate longitudinal and lateral dynamical model of the MAV, which are verified by numerous flight trials.
However, there still exists a considerable amount of model uncertainties in the system descrip-tion of the MAV. A robust feedback stabilized close loop flight control law, is designed to attenuate the effects of modelling uncertainties, discrete vertical and head-on wind gusts, and to maintain flight stability and performance requirements at all allowable operating conditions. The controller is implemented in the MAV autopilot hardware with successful close loop flight trials. The flight controller is designed based on the probabilistic robust control approach. The approach is based on statistical average case analysis and synthesis techniques. It removes the conservatism present in the classical robust feedback design (which is based the worst case de-sign techniques) and associated sluggish system response characteristics. Instead of minimizing the effect of the worst case disturbance, a randomized techniques synthesizes a controller for which some performance index is minimized in an empirical average sense. In this thesis it is shown that the degree of conservatism in the design and the number of samples used to by the randomized sampling based techniques has a direct relationship. In particular, it is shown that, as the lower bound on the number of samples reduces, the degree of conservatism increases in the design.
Classical motion planning and obstacle avoidance methodologies are computationally expen-sive with the number of degrees of freedom of the vehicle, and therefore, these methodologies are largely inapplicable for MAVs with 6 degrees of freedom. The problem of computational complexity can be avoided using randomized sampling based motion planning algorithms such as probabilistic roadmap method or PRM. However, as a pay-off these algorithms lack algorith-mic completeness properties. In this thesis, it is established that the algorithmic completeness properties are dependent on the choice of the sampling sequences. The thesis contains analy-sis of algorithmic features such as probabilistic completeness and asymptotic optimality of the PRM algorithm and its many variants, under the incremental and independent problem model framework. It is shown in this thesis that the structure of the random sample sequence affects the solution of the sampling based algorithms.
The problem of capturing the connectivity of the configuration space in the presence of ob-stacles, which is a central problem in randomized motion planning, is also discussed in this thesis. In particular, the success probability of one such randomized algorithm, named Obsta-cle based Probabilistic Roadmap Method or OBPRM is estimated using geometric probability theory. A direct relationship between the weak upper bound of the success probability and the obstacle geometric features is established. The thesis also contains a new sampling based algorithm which is based on geometric random walk theory, which addresses the problem of capturing the connectivity of the configuration space. The algorithm shows better performance when compared with other similar algorithm such as the Randomized Bridge Builder method for identical benchmark problems. Numerical simulation shows that the algorithm shows en-hanced performance as the dimension of the motion planning problem increases.
As one of the central objectives, the thesis proposes a pre-processing technique of the state space of the system to enhance the performance of sampling based kino-dynamic motion plan-ner such as rapidly exploring random tree or RRT. This pre-processing technique can not only be applied for the motion planning of the MAV, but can also be applied for a wide class of vehicle and complex systems with large number of degrees of freedom. The pre-processing techniques identifies the sequence of regions, to be searched for a solution, in order to do mo-tion planning and obstacle avoidance for an MAV, by an RRT planner. Numerical simulation shows significant improvement over the basic RRT planner with a small additional computa-tional overhead. The probabilistic analysis of RRT algorithm and an approximate asymptotic optimality analysis of the solution returned by the algorithm, is also presented in this thesis. In particular, it is shown that the RRT algorithm is not asymptotically optimal.
An integral part of the motion planning algorithm is the capability of fast collision detection between various geometric objects. Image space based methods, which uses Graphics Pro-cessing Unit or GPU hardware, and do not use object geometry explicitly, are found to be fast and accurate for this purpose. In this thesis, a new collision detection method between two convex/non-convex objects using GPU, is provided. The performance of the algorithm, which is an extension of an existing algorithm, is verified with numerous collision detection scenarios.
33
Bera, Titas. "Application of Randomized Algorithms in Path Planning and Control of a Micro Air Vehicle." Thesis, 2015. http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/2005/3756.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis focuses on the design and development of a fixed wing micro air vehicle (MAV) and on the development of randomized sampling based motion planning and control algorithms for path planning and stabilization of the MAV. In addition, the thesis also contains probabilis-tic analyses of the algorithmic properties of randomized sampling based algorithms, such as completeness and asymptotic optimality.
The thesis begins with a detailed discussion on aerodynamic design, computational fluid dy-namic simulations of propeller wake, wind tunnel tests of a 150mm fixed wing micro air ve-hicle. The vehicle is designed in such a way that in spite of the various adverse effects of low Reynolds number aerodynamics and the complex propeller wake interactions with the airframe, the vehicle shows a balance of external forces and moments at most of the operating conditions. This is supported by various CFD analysis and wind tunnel tests and is shown in this thesis. The thesis also contains a reasonably accurate longitudinal and lateral dynamical model of the MAV, which are verified by numerous flight trials.
However, there still exists a considerable amount of model uncertainties in the system descrip-tion of the MAV. A robust feedback stabilized close loop flight control law, is designed to attenuate the effects of modelling uncertainties, discrete vertical and head-on wind gusts, and to maintain flight stability and performance requirements at all allowable operating conditions. The controller is implemented in the MAV autopilot hardware with successful close loop flight trials. The flight controller is designed based on the probabilistic robust control approach. The approach is based on statistical average case analysis and synthesis techniques. It removes the conservatism present in the classical robust feedback design (which is based the worst case de-sign techniques) and associated sluggish system response characteristics. Instead of minimizing the effect of the worst case disturbance, a randomized techniques synthesizes a controller for which some performance index is minimized in an empirical average sense. In this thesis it is shown that the degree of conservatism in the design and the number of samples used to by the randomized sampling based techniques has a direct relationship. In particular, it is shown that, as the lower bound on the number of samples reduces, the degree of conservatism increases in the design.
Classical motion planning and obstacle avoidance methodologies are computationally expen-sive with the number of degrees of freedom of the vehicle, and therefore, these methodologies are largely inapplicable for MAVs with 6 degrees of freedom. The problem of computational complexity can be avoided using randomized sampling based motion planning algorithms such as probabilistic roadmap method or PRM. However, as a pay-off these algorithms lack algorith-mic completeness properties. In this thesis, it is established that the algorithmic completeness properties are dependent on the choice of the sampling sequences. The thesis contains analy-sis of algorithmic features such as probabilistic completeness and asymptotic optimality of the PRM algorithm and its many variants, under the incremental and independent problem model framework. It is shown in this thesis that the structure of the random sample sequence affects the solution of the sampling based algorithms.
The problem of capturing the connectivity of the configuration space in the presence of ob-stacles, which is a central problem in randomized motion planning, is also discussed in this thesis. In particular, the success probability of one such randomized algorithm, named Obsta-cle based Probabilistic Roadmap Method or OBPRM is estimated using geometric probability theory. A direct relationship between the weak upper bound of the success probability and the obstacle geometric features is established. The thesis also contains a new sampling based algorithm which is based on geometric random walk theory, which addresses the problem of capturing the connectivity of the configuration space. The algorithm shows better performance when compared with other similar algorithm such as the Randomized Bridge Builder method for identical benchmark problems. Numerical simulation shows that the algorithm shows en-hanced performance as the dimension of the motion planning problem increases.
As one of the central objectives, the thesis proposes a pre-processing technique of the state space of the system to enhance the performance of sampling based kino-dynamic motion plan-ner such as rapidly exploring random tree or RRT. This pre-processing technique can not only be applied for the motion planning of the MAV, but can also be applied for a wide class of vehicle and complex systems with large number of degrees of freedom. The pre-processing techniques identifies the sequence of regions, to be searched for a solution, in order to do mo-tion planning and obstacle avoidance for an MAV, by an RRT planner. Numerical simulation shows significant improvement over the basic RRT planner with a small additional computa-tional overhead. The probabilistic analysis of RRT algorithm and an approximate asymptotic optimality analysis of the solution returned by the algorithm, is also presented in this thesis. In particular, it is shown that the RRT algorithm is not asymptotically optimal.
An integral part of the motion planning algorithm is the capability of fast collision detection between various geometric objects. Image space based methods, which uses Graphics Pro-cessing Unit or GPU hardware, and do not use object geometry explicitly, are found to be fast and accurate for this purpose. In this thesis, a new collision detection method between two convex/non-convex objects using GPU, is provided. The performance of the algorithm, which is an extension of an existing algorithm, is verified with numerous collision detection scenarios.