Academic literature on the topic 'Wine consumer behaviour'

Consumer interest in organic wine is growing, but the effects of organic label, consumer quality perception and the support for the benefits claim of organic wine are not yet fully understood and at times doubtful. The literature shows a very heterogeneous picture regarding consumer behaviour and preferences for organic wine. This study seeks to understand the link between organic wine and consumer’ purchasing drivers. Using a systematic literature review, the paper explores the characteristics of consumer of organic wine, the motivation on consumer behaviour and preferences for organic wine, as well as the sensory quality and the presence of additives when evaluating wine quality and in shaping consumers’ attitudes. The results show how socio-economic and psychological characteristics of consumer as well as quality perception affect their behaviour for organic wine. Little consensus on the benefits in terms of improved sensory quality of organic wine compared to conventional one. Among sensory qualities, taste has been found to be both a key driver and barrier to organic wine consumption. Based on literature studies, consumers have positive opinions toward organic wine, which is perceived as healthy and environmental friendly. However, despite the growing market interest in wine, scientific information about the organoleptic differences between conventional and organic remains scarce and the topic requires more in-depth analysis. Understanding the profile of consumer and the factors that influence consumer’ behaviour provide information to the organic wine industry.

Purpose – The purpose of the study was to devise an instrument, labelled the Fine Wine Instrument (FWI), to measure the fine wine behaviour of respondents and then use that base to segment the consumer sample. The behaviour of those respondents who scored highly on the FWI was examined in detail. Design/methodology/approach – An online survey collected quantitative information from a convenience sample of Australian wine consumers (n = 1,017). Using the FWI as the segmentation base, cluster analysis identified three segments of consumers, denoted “Wine Enthusiasts”, “Aspirants” and “No Frills” wine drinkers, and their respective wine-related behaviours were examined. Findings – The Wine Enthusiasts’ segment consumed more wine, spent more money on wine and were more knowledgeable about wine than the other two segments. The demographics of the Wine Enthusiasts’ segment indicated that the members were not consistent with the conventional view of wine connoisseurs, as many were under the age of 35. Their lifetime value to the wine industry was highlighted along with potential targeting strategies. Some structural elements of the Australian domestic wine market were also noted. Practical implications – A segmentation base of a wine market is presented, which the authors argue provides a more sophisticated analysis than other commonly used segmentation bases. Originality/value – This study was the first to segment the Australian market using the recently developed FWI. The study provides the latest information on this market and deeper consumer insights that may permit better business-to-consumer engagement.

AbstractObjective:Compared with standard wines, low-alcohol wines may have several social and health benefits. Innovative production processes have led to high-quality light wines. It is, however, unclear how consumers perceive and consume these alcohol-reduced wines. The current study aimed to investigate how people evaluate low-alcohol wine (Sauvignon Blanc) and if the reduction in alcohol and the information that a wine is low in alcohol influences consumption.Design:Randomised controlled trial (RCT).Setting:Participants were invited to a wine tasting and randomised into one of the three conditions: they either tasted a ‘new white wine’ (12·5 % alcohol content), a ‘new low-alcohol white wine’ (8·0 % alcohol content) or they tasted the low-alcohol wine but were not aware that the wine was reduced in alcohol (low-alcohol, blinded).Participants:Ninety participants (42 % male, mean age = 41 (sd 14) years).Results:Mean comparisons showed similar ratings for the low-alcohol conditions and the standard alcohol condition (mean > 5·6/7). The mean consumed amount across all conditions did not differ (162 (sd 71) ml, (F2,86 = 0·43, P > 0·05)), hence people who tasted the low-alcohol wine consumed approximately 30 % less alcohol. However, participants were willing to pay more for the normal wine compared with the low-alcohol wine, (F2,87 = 3·14, P < 0·05).Conclusions:Participants did not alter their drinking behaviour in response to the reduced alcohol content, and the low-alcohol wine was perceived positively. There might be an emerging market potential for wine of reduced alcohol content, but consumers may not be willing to pay the same price as for the standard wine.

Wine consumer lifestyle segmentation has been widely studied; however, most studies have solely utilised online surveys. This work investigated the impact of context on wine consumer segments’ liking and emotions while consuming wines in different environments. Two studies were conducted with regular wine consumers segmented based on their fine wine behaviour using the Fine Wine Instrument. Study 1 (n = 122) investigated the effects of wine variety and product information, and Study 2 (n = 346) the effects of wine quality and consumption context, on hedonic and emotional responses of the segments. Within both studies, three segments were identified and named: Wine Enthusiasts, Aspirants and No Frills. The Wine Enthusiast segment generally liked the wines more and perceived more intense positive emotions when consuming wine compared to the No Frills segment, with the Aspirant’s likes and emotion intensities ranging in between. Wine Enthusiasts were more discriminative of their preferred wines and reported stronger positive emotions when tasting higher quality (Study 1) and more complex (Study 2) wines. The consistent results across the two studies showed for the first time that consumer segments, based on lifestyle segmentation, differ in their hedonic and emotional responses towards wine when actually tasting wines, demonstrating that the Fine Wine Instrument has practical implications and can identify wine consumers displaying different wine consumption behaviours.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide additional insight into how the level of subjective knowledge (SK) related to wine explains differences in the wine-consumption behaviour of young adults. Particular attention was given to information search strategies employed by young adult wine consumers. Design/methodology/approach – A web-based survey was carried out on 287 young urban wine consumers who were recruited in specialised wine shops and at wine festivals. The key variables presenting the consumers’ wine searches were measured using the best-worst scaling method. Latent class cluster analysis (LCA) was used to segment the respondents into clusters based on their level of SK of wine. Findings – The study identifies three consumer segments with corresponding levels of SK related to wine. The segments present considerable differences in the wine-consumption-related behaviours and information search strategies. Research limitations/implications – Understanding young adults’ SK of wine will assist wine marketers in their efforts to establish marketing strategies for this generational cohort. In addition, research (preferably transnational) is recommended to validate the conclusions and to gain additional understanding of SK as an indicator of wine-related behaviours. Originality/value – This study contributes to a better understanding of the wine-purchasing behaviours of young adults with particular focus on SK related to wine. The results obtained may be applied by winemakers in the development of marketing and promotion strategies geared towards the promising young adult consumer segment.

The paper includes partial results of research oriented on conventions and behaviour of consumers on the wine market in the Czech Republic. Based on direct questioning of 1000 respondents from the whole Czech Republic we found, that 11.3% of respondents drink wine several times a week, 29.8% of respondents at least once a week, and 23.2% drink wine several times a month. Only 2.7% of respondents do not drink wine at all. 30.3% of respondents drink wine more often than before, especially because of the fact, that they like wine more, it is of a better quality, and the offer is greater.15.8% of respondents drink wine less often than before of these reasons: health reasons, wine is too expensive, they drive more often.In the groups of respondents with lower amount of wine drunk in usual consummation, there prevail women. Of the total number of women, who answered this question, 75.8% drink less than 0.5 litres in common consummation. In the group of respondents drinking more than 1 litre of wine, there are 5% women and 95% men.

PurposeThe aim of this study is to understand which wine quality characteristics, consumers' attitudes and socio-demographic characteristics affect the consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) a premium price for a bottle of natural wine.Design/methodology/approachThe research is experimental and investigated the purchasing intentions of 613 Italian wine consumers within a hypothetical setting. In order to elicit WTP for natural wine, a multiple price list (MPL) in a comparison with one bottle of conventional wine, with an average price of €5 was adopted. To understand which quality attributes of wine affect the consumers' WTP for natural wine, a Tobit regression model was implemented.FindingsThe findings reveal that drink frequency and occasion, organic production method, the content of sulfites, income and the attitudes towards healthy eating and the environment are positively associated with a higher WTP for natural wine.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of this study is related to both the convenient sample and the limited geographical area. However, identifying which quality attributes of natural wine are most appreciated by consumers and which attitudes affect this behaviour is fundamental in order to develop successful marketing strategies for product development and the design of advertising and communication campaigns.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first to analyse the consumer behaviour towards natural wines contributing to enrich that part of the economic literature which states that consumers have a positive attitude towards sustainable wines.

Purpose – This paper aims to determine whether exploratory wine purchasing behaviour is affected by consumers’ objective and subjective wine knowledge. Design/methodology/approach – A questionnaire was developed using recognised scales for exploratory consumer tendencies, objective and subjective wine knowledge. The survey was administered using the MTurk platform. A factor analysis was first used to test the psychometric properties of the measures of the three constructs. Once the robustness of the measures was ascertained, cross-tabulations and testing via ANOVA’s of the demographics of age, gender, weekly wine consumption and education on the constructs was undertaken. In addition the causal relationship of subjective and objective wine knowledge on exploratory purchase behaviour was investigated via the use of multiple regression analysis. Findings – The results show that consumers with more real (objective) knowledge of wines are more likely to participate in exploratory wine purchasing. Objective wine knowledge is greatest amongst older consumers and those who consume more wine. Research limitations/implications – While attempts were made to limit biases due to the research approach, the results may lack generalisability because a US sample only, was used. Recommendations for future research extending the sample population as well as for changes to the question formats are suggested. Practical implications – The findings of this study have implications for wine marketers in that marketing strategies and activities (labelling, distribution, media, etc.) may need to be adapted depending on the exploratory purchasing behaviour and wine knowledge of their target customers. Originality/value – Exploratory wine acquisition behaviour is important to wine marketers. This behaviour encourages trial but, at the same time, impacts brand loyalty. This paper identifies the characteristics of consumers in terms of wine knowledge, consumption and demographics most likely to exhibit this behaviour and provides support for the need for marketers to identify these consumers and adapt their marketing activities targeting them.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to discover the underlying motivations of Chinese wine consumption.Design/methodology/approachQualitative focus group interviews were performed on 36 Chinese wine consumers and four focus groups were performed, with participants segmented into groups based on age and gender.FindingsThe main findings were that Chinese wine consumers are influenced by face and status. These issues may be affecting their wine consumption behaviours, particularly related to anomalous behaviours such as mixing red wine with lemonade and the rationale for the preference of cork‐closed wine bottles. Furthermore, the notion of wine consumption for health‐related purposes was uncovered and a linkage found with traditional Chinese medicine.Originality/valueWhile research has been conducted on Chinese wine consumers, this paper attempts to uncover the underlying motivations for consumption and finds a linkage between wine consumption and traditional Chinese medicine. Furthermore, this paper links the traditions and beliefs of traditional Chinese medicine with a product category other than food or medicine.

Purpose For wine consumers, the country-of-origin effect still exerts significant influence, even though probably differently from what it was earlier, especially for newer consumer segments. Among these, millennials represent the most interesting segment of the present and future, even though studies on millennials’ behaviour are insidious and newer consumer segments are emerging (Generation Z). The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach This study focusses on this parameter through a comparative analysis of French and Italian wines – first, on the country-of-origin effect on millennials’ wine preferences, and second, on the possibility of managing this influence by adopting a wine marketing mix based on the innovative 4Es model. Findings The outcomes of the experiment on 121 millennials, despite the limitations of the study, highlight interesting changes – compared with the wine consumption behaviours of the past – regarding the country-of-origin effect and the possibility of managing it. Originality/value The results confirm, similar to the literature on the 4Es model, the possibility of wide areas of action for wine educational marketing initiatives that can change or enhance the country-of-origin perception.

The term `quality' is regularly used by those who produce, promote and consume wine. However, the nature and features of wine quality are rarely explained. This study was designed to explore what drinkers consider to be the nature of wine quality and what they believe its features to be. Focus groups and individual and small group interviews were used to explore the conceptualisation and dimensions of wine quality, how that quality is assessed, and what its relevance may be. There were 105 informants, sourced from three states across Australia primarily by utilising friends and acquaintances of the researcher. Informants included consumers with a wide background of consumption practices and involvement levels, and also producers and those involved generally in the marketing, selling and promotion of wine. The study viewed wine as an aesthetic or quasi-aesthetic object and therefore also investigated drinkers' more general perceptions of the links between wine and other aesthetic products, placing the understanding of quality within that context.

Mestrado em Marketing
Understanding the market characteristics and consumer behaviour are the main factors to achieve success in any country. However, China has specificities that are very different from what marketers are used to. This study aims to research the consumers’ behaviour in terms of purchase and consumption, as well as, their perception towards Portugal, its’ products and wine. It also intends to create a strategic marketing plan that can serve exporters that want to enter the Chinese market. To this end, an online survey was administered to a selected sample of Shanghai’s population. As a result, it was concluded that Portuguese products may have a chance to enter this market, if they are presented in the right places, with the right prices, if it can get to the right people and publications but, especially, if the business relation and country brand are well managed.

Mestrado em Viticultura e Enologia - Instituto Superior de Agronomia / Faculdade de Ciências - Universidade do Porto
For a successful export of portuguese wine it is necessary to analyse the consumer behaviour of the various target countries. Only if the consumer behaviour is understood one is able to develop and implement marketing strategies as well as products that address market and consumer needs appropriately. As Germany is one of most important import countries for wine this paper solely focusses on the german wine market. It is therefore of major importance to analyse the consumer behaviour, aiming to identify the most valued attributes when choosing portuguese wines, understanding their purchasing habits and their expectations from Portuguese wines. The results of this study showed that german consumers like to drink refreshing white wines as well as slender and classy red wines. Customers who are already used to portuguese wine associate them with exceptional quality and great price-quality ratio. The majority of the sample are lacking of an intellectual connection to portuguese wine though. Another finding of this paper is that German consumers are very discount driven and demand value for their money on the one hand but are also willing to spend larger amounts of money for good recommended wines on the other hand. To understand these patterns of behaviour is an essential premise in order to effectively penetrate the German market

Tese apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciências Empresariais
This study aims to contribute to the conceptual development of consumer behaviour in wine tourism area by bringing new discussion and empirical evidences. For this, a literature review of the main concepts was conducted in order to develop and support a conceptual model. This model was subsequently validated and empirically tested, and a hypothetical relationship between constructs was established: involvement (personal involvement and wine product involvement), destination emotions and place attachment (place identity and place dependence). This is, so far, the first study that analyses the combined interaction of all these constructs. This research was undertaken in the framework of wine tourism, namely the measurement of the wine tourist behavior after visiting the Porto wine cellars. Methodologically, the first chapter is a qualitative exploratory study that performed a content analysis on the key constructs (involvement and emotions), allowing a better understanding of how they can be defined, and the main dimensions underlying each one of them. The second chapter consisted of a conceptual approach, which focused on the clarification of the definition of wine tourism, and the wine tourist behaviour in particular. It also explored the possible relations between constructs (involvement, destination emotions, place attachment and behavioural intentions), postulating the key preposition that stems from their interaction. In the third chapter, a quantitative research was used, using a personal intercept survey in the Porto wine cellars to validate and to give empirical evidences about the behaviour of the Porto wine cellar visitor. The multilevel analysis of the proposed structural model was made using the SmartPLS software, allowing the confirmation of all the proposed hypotheses. In the first chapter, the findings provided a theoretical support of the relevance of involvement and emotions constructs in the field of tourism. The content analysis produced insights based on concepts and definitions of these two constructs on a more holistic perspective. In the second chapter, the findings sustain the special interest in consumer behaviour in wine tourism, and it stated a set of five prepositions, where the main constructs are interlinked. In the third chapter, the empirical results indicated that wine tourists’ personal involvement and their wine product involvement have a significant influence (and a direct effect) on destination emotions and place attachment, driving their behavioural intentions. The study had direct implications (analysis and evaluation of the wine tourist travel behaviour and wine tourist profile) for the Porto wine cellars. The results led to practical implications and suggestions for wine tourism managers. Este estudo tem como propósito contribuir para o desenvolvimento conceptual do comportamento do consumidor na área do enoturismo, contribuindo com uma nova discussão e evidências empíricas. Foi realizada uma revisão da literatura sobre os principais construtos, a fim de desenvolver e apoiar um modelo conceptual. Este modelo foi posteriormente validado e testado empiricamente, e foi estabelecida uma relação hipotética entre os construtos: envolvimento (envolvimento pessoal e envolvimento com o produto vinho), as emoções do destino e apego ao lugar (identidade do lugar e dependência do lugar). Até agora, este é o primeiro estudo que analisa a interação combinada de todos estes construtos. Esta pesquisa foi realizada no âmbito do enoturismo, ou seja, a medição do comportamento do enoturista após visitar as caves do vinho do Porto. Relativamente à metodologia aplicada, o primeiro capítulo é um estudo qualitativo exploratório que resultou numa análise de conteúdo sobre os construtos chave (envolvimento e emoções), permitindo uma melhor compreensão de como eles podem ser definidos, e as principais dimensões subjacentes a cada um deles. O segundo capítulo consistiu numa abordagem conceptual que incidiu sobre a clarificação da definição de enoturismo, e o comportamento do enoturista em particular. Este capítulo também explorou as possíveis relações entre os construtos (envolvimento, emoções do destino, apego ao lugar e intenções comportamentais), que determinam a preposição chave que decorre de sua interação. No terceiro capítulo, uma pesquisa quantitativa, foi utilizado um questionário estruturado nas caves do vinho do Porto, para validar e dar evidências empíricas sobre o comportamento do visitante nas caves do vinho do Porto. Foi realizada a análise multivariada do modelo estrutural proposto, utilizando o software SmartPLS, que permitiu a confirmação de todas as hipóteses propostas. No primeiro capítulo, os resultados forneceram um suporte teórico da relevância dos construtos do envolvimento e das emoções na área do turismo. A análise de conteúdo produziu perceções com base em conceitos e definições destes dois construtos, numa perspetiva mais holística. No segundo capítulo, os resultados sustentam o especial interesse no comportamento do consumidor no enoturismo, e foi apresentado um conjunto de 5 preposições, onde os principais construtos são interligados. No terceiro capítulo, os resultados empíricos indicam que o envolvimento pessoal dos enoturistas e o seu envolvimento com o produto vinho têm uma influência significativa (e um efeito direto) sobre as emoções do destino e o apego ao lugar, impulsionando as suas intenções comportamentais. O estudo teve implicações diretas (análise e avaliação do comportamento de viagem do enoturista e perfil do enoturista) para as caves do vinho do Porto. Os resultados levaram a implicações práticas e sugestões para os gestores de enoturismo. Cette étude a pour but contribuer pour le développement conceptuel du comportement du consommateur en oenotourisme, apportant une nouvelle discussion et des évidences empiriques. Il a été faite une révision de la littérature à propos des principaux concepts, a fin de développer et soutenir un modèle conceptuel. Ce modèle a été ensuite validé et testé empiriquement, et il a été établi un rapport hypothétique entre les concepts : engagement (engagement personnel et engagement avec le produit vin), émotions du destin, attachement à l’endroit (identité et dépendance de l’endroit). Celle-ci c’est, jusqu`à présent, la première étude qui analyse l’interaction combinée des tous ces concepts. Cette recherche a été réalisée dans le cadre de l’oenotourisme, ça veut dire le mesurage du comportement de l’oenotouriste après visiter les caves du vin Porto. Méthodologiquement le premier chapitre c’est une étude qualitative exploratoire qui a réalisé une analyse du contenu sur les concepts clé (engagement et émotions), en permettant une meilleure compréhension de la façon dont ils peuvent être définis, ainsi que les dimensions principales inhérentes à chacun d’eux. Le second chapitre a consisté dans une approche conceptuelle qui portait sur la précision de la définition de l’oenotourisme, et le comportement de l’oenotouriste en particulier. Ce chapitre a aussi exploité les éventuels rapports entre les concepts (engagement, émotions du destin, attachement à l’endroit et intentions comportementales) qui postulent la préposition clé qui découle de son interaction. Dans le troisième chapitre, une recherche quantitative, il a été utilisé un questionnaire structuré dans les caves du vin Porto, a fin de valider et de donner des évidences empiriques sur le comportement du visiteur dans les caves du vin Porto. Il a été réalisé l’analyse multifactorielle du modèle structurel proposé, en utilisant le software SmartPLS qui a permis la confirmation de toutes les hypothèses proposées. Dans le premier article, les résultats ont fourni un soutien théorique de la pertinence des concepts de l’engagement et des émotions dans le domaine du tourisme. L’analyse du contenu a produit des perceptions ayant comme base des conceptions et définitions de ces deux concepts, dans un point de vue plus holistique. Dans le second article, les résultats soutiennent le spécial intérêt dans le comportement du consommateur dans l’oenotourisme, et il a été présenté un ensemble de 5 prépositions, où les principales constructions sont interconnectées. Dans le troisième article, les résultats empiriques indiquent que l’engagement avec le produit vin ont une influence significative (et un effet direct) sur les émotions du destin et l’attachement à l’endroit, en poussant ses intentions comportementales. L’étude a eu des implications directes (analyse et évaluation du comportement de voyage de l’oenotouriste et profil de l’oenotouriste) pour les caves du vin Porto. Les résultats ont amené à des implications pratiques et suggestions pour les gestionnaires de l’oenotourisme.

The influence of packaging design (PD) on consumer choice is well documented, most notably through its perceived attractiveness and the product beliefs it can generate. However, these aspects of PD’s influence have been tested only in isolation and with little attention paid to the moderating role of consumers’ personal characteristics. Drawing from theories in the fields of visual perception, information processing and response to product form and using the product category of wine, the present thesis investigates consumers’ perceptions of PD styles more holistically, incorporating the moderating role of consumer involvement. Specifically, the thesis hypothesises that consumers’ involvement levels in wine moderate their affective and cognitive responses to wine PD styles, which in turn influence their purchase intentions. The empirical investigation follows a mixed methods approach, comprising seven focus group discussions and an online survey (n = 540) of low involvement (LI) and high involvement (HI) wine consumers. The results confirm that consumers show both affective and cognitive responses to PD and that both types of response have significant effects on purchase intention. However, the study also reveals that consumers’ involvement level determines, which type of PD response is more influential. Affective responses to PD had greater impact for LI respondents’ purchase intention than for HI respondents’ purchase intention. An opposite effect was found for cognitive responses to PD. These results demonstrate the need to take account of different types of consumer response when investigating PD’s effects and they highlight the value of involvement as a factor to predict the types of response consumers may have to PD in a purchase decision.

Mestrado em Marketing
Este estudo centra-se no comportamento das mulheres no mercado dos vinhos em Portugal, com o objetivo de identificar os atributos mais valorizados no momento de escolha de um vinho e compreender os hábitos de compra e de consumo das consumidoras femininas. A metodologia adotada foi qualitativa, com recurso a entrevistas em profundidade a uma amostra de 15 mulheres consumidoras de vinho, com idades compreendidas entre os 23 e os 35 anos. Os resultados do estudo indicam que os atributos mais valorizados no momento da compra são o preço, a região de origem e a recomendação de amigos e familiares. Relativamente aos hábitos de compra, as mulheres compram vinho nos supermercados devido ao preço, acessibilidade, variedade, descontos, promoções e conveniência. As mulheres utilizam como estratégias principais de redução do risco de compra a recomendação de amigos e familiares e o seu próprio conhecimento. Em relação ao consumo, verifica-se que as ocasiões mais propícias ao consumo de vinho são as refeições, nomeadamente em momentos de convívio com os amigos e com a família, sendo que o tipo de vinho preferido das mulheres é o vinho tinto. A identificação e a compreensão das preferências das mulheres é de extrema importância, uma vez que faculta indicações aos profissionais de vinho como devem ir ao encontro das expectativas das consumidoras de vinho.
This study is based on women's behaviour in the wine market in Portugal, aiming to identify the most valued attributes when women choose wine and understand the purchasing and consumption habits of female consumers. The methodology adopted was qualitative, using in-depth interviews to a sample of fifteen women that consume wine, aged between 23 to 35 years old. The results of this study show that the most valued attributes at the time of purchase are the price, the region of origin and the recommendation of friends and relatives. As regards the purchase habits, women buy wine in supermarkets due to the price, accessibility, variety, discounts, promotions and convenience. Women use as main strategies to reduce the purchasing risks, the recommendation of friends and relatives and their own knowledge. Concerning the consumption, it turns out that the most suitable occasions to consume are meals, especially in moments of conviviality with friends and family, being the red wine the women's favourite. The identification of understanding of women's preferences is extremely important, since it provides indications to wine professionals how to meet the expectations of female consumers.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
The market benefits and competitive advantage of integrating social responsibility initiatives are well known within the global marketing context. More recently, this movement had notably increased within the South African wine industry, where wine producers are integrating philanthropy into their overall business operations. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the marketing of social responsibility initiatives, within the South African wine industry, would lead to a positive consumer attitude towards a brand and result in influencing South African wine consumers’ purchasing behaviour. The literature review was conducted to establish the effect of marketing social responsibility initiatives over consumer attitude, intention and planned behaviour. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyse the data. This study indicated that the marketing of social responsibility initiatives are recognised by South African wine consumers as a decision-making factor and do influence consumers’ attitude towards brands, when purchasing wine. Although social responsibility initiatives are regarded as a low decision-making factor, when compared to other factors, the study did indicate that South African wine consumers generally do portray positive attitude towards the South African wine industry’s social responsibility initiatives. Generally, it was found that South African wine consumers portrayed positive planned purchasing behaviour towards most of the South African wine producers’ social responsibility initiatives, with management of quality and environmental conservation initiatives receiving more positive response. Land reformation and legislative responsibility were regarded as lesser important initiatives. Given the fact that social responsibility initiatives are recognised, yet only influences a certain portion of South African wine consumers’ purchasing decisions, the study did indicate that there are opportunities for the South African wine industry to market its social responsibility initiatives. The study concludes with the educational role that the marketing of social responsibility initiatives may have on influencing wine consumers’ planned behaviour and suggests a multi-stakeholder approach towards marketing.

The purpose of this research was to better understand consumer knowledge, its constituents, antecedents and consequences or implications for other consumer behaviours so as to assist wine marketers and marketers of other information-intensive products with their marketing strategy development.  Wine is a complex product difficult for consumers to evaluate particularly prior to purchase but it is also a difficult product for marketers.  Wine has a very large number of both intrinsic and extrinsic attributes.  As a result of the numerous attributes and the multitude of combinations of these attributes there is a plethora of wine brands available making for a highly competitive industry and a complicated product for consumers.    Consumer knowledge affects all aspects of consumer purchasing behaviour and is thus an important phenomenon for marketers to research and understand.  Consumer knowledge also affects all aspects of the marketing strategy developed to satisfy target segments.  Marketing decision makers need to understand consumers to be able to analyze and profile segments, choose target markets and develop marketing strategies that will best align with those target markets.  Calls particularly for better understanding of different segments within the wine market provide justification for this research. The research problem was divided into three components: Consumer wine knowledge constituents, Antecedents of consumer wine knowledge and the Implications of consumer wine knowledge.  The latter component of the research problem explored the implications of consumer wine knowledge for segmentation, as well as the relationships between consumer wine knowledge and exploratory purchasing behaviour, variety-seeking behaviour and opinion leadership and opinion-seeking behaviours.  This study provides evidence of the existence of two distinct constituents of consumer knowledge i.e. what consumers know (objective knowledge) and what they think they know (subjective knowledge) and these constituents in the context of wine are significantly related.  However it is also clear that these constituents are significantly different, with different antecedents and implications for other consumer behaviours.  This study provides a visual depiction of a simplistic nomological map developed for the construct of consumer knowledge based on the studies reported in this thesis in the context of an information-intensive product such as wine.  Objective knowledge is largely driven by demographic antecedents, specifically age, gender and education while subjective knowledge is mostly driven by, or affected by consumption.  On the implications side of the map, objective knowledge significantly positively correlates with exploratory acquisition, and opinion leadership while subjective knowledge is positively related to opinion leadership and negatively to opinion-seeking behaviours.  Theoretical implications as well as recommendations for wine marketers and researchers are provided.

QC 20151217

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
Almost every geographical wine producing area has a generic marketing organisation in the form of a wine route organisation or similar organisation that aspires to create a favourable perception of their area in the minds of wine consumers. In their efforts to try and escape the growing commoditising of wines, wine producers recently intensified their efforts to differentiate themselves from other offers by increasingly certifying more wine as wine from a specific geographical area, launching competitions that embrace terroir as the defining factor for quality and increasing the number of demarcated areas. It was the purpose of this study to examine whether the South African consumer assigns a high degree of relevance to the certification of origin as an influencing factor when purchasing wine. As a starting point, a literature study was conducted to establish the current state of knowledge regarding the relevance of certification of origin of wine in wine marketing. The literature review also provided the framework for designing a survey conducted among South African wine consumers. The data gathered via an online questionnaire was analysed by employing both descriptive and inferential statistical methods. The analysis showed that certification of origin of wine plays a secondary role in influencing consumers when faced with a purchasing decision on its own. However, as part of the regional composite variable, which consists of variety, region and wine style, it plays a major role in influencing consumers (McCutcheon, Bruwer & Li, 2009: 229). In accordance with other studies conducted among South African wine consumers (Von Arnim, 2008: 58), the specific wine variety emerged as the most important factor influencing consumers. It was also found that consumers with a high involvement and interest in wine assign a higher degree of relevance to certification of origin of wine than consumers with a low involvement. The findings of this research report are based on respondents who mainly reside within the Western Cape and the demographic profile of respondents shows that mostly male respondents completed the online questionnaire. The findings are therefore tentative due to the geographical and demographical limitations. This research report is of value to academic researchers, wine marketing professionals and generic marketing organisations such as wine route organisations.

The thesis focuses on the product modification in a wine hotel. Its aim is to suggest recommendations leading to greater consumer satisfaction and higher profitability of the hotel. The theoretical part explains the specifics of hotel services and their marketing. It also characterizes the wine tourism, as well as wine consumers and wine tourists as potential customers of the hotel. The practical part is oriented on the wine hotel Merlot in Prague. The main part of the thesis includes own survey of consumer behaviour conducted in the hotel. The competition analysis, SWOT analysis and analysis of meeting the requirements for official classification are presented as well.

Different methods have been developed by researchers in modelling wine consumers purchase behaviour. The quality of a food product is described by a set of characteristics ascribable to the intrinsic and extrinsic product attributes (Olson and Jacoby, 1972). Price, brand, region of origin, grapes and gained awards are the key extrinsic attributes and physical characteristics of the wine such as taste and flavour are intrinsic attributes. This paper addresses the problem of measuring the intrinsic attributes that characterise the wine, based on specific characteristics and the impact on consumers in terms of preferences. To this end, a fractional factorial experiment held on a selection of white wines of the Alto Adige/Südtirol province in Italy. The sensorial experiment involved a voluntary sample of 33 mild wine consumers and concerned 6 grape varieties typical of that territory. For each variety, two producing cellars were selected for a total of 12 evaluated wines. The experiment followed a double-blind administration procedure to the sample and a paper questionnaire was used to elicit the consumers’ opinions on the tasted wines. The results show that intrinsic attributes, such as taste-olfactory intensity, harmony and olfactory complexity, are the drivers used in combination by consumers to rank wines in order of preference.

Playful representations of history are quite widespread in various types of modern toys and games. The author of this essay focused specifically on commercially available construction sets inspired by Greek antiquity. In order to acquire an understanding of user behaviour vis à vis such playthings, she employed as sources consumer reactions published on on line marketplaces. User generated feedback that is available on the Internet clearly offers an extremely rich and relatively untapped resource for researchers of user experiences. The on line exploration was complemented by a self study of using one of these sets to construct a mini Parthenon; it was a pleasurable and rewarding activity The combined consideration of consumer comments and self study suggest that the experience of making miniature replicas of ancient buildings is mostly positive for a wide range of users, as it successfully combines entertainment with learning. At the same time, such play activities offer sufficient scope for improvisation and creativity.

Abstract. At present, the consumer psychology of some consumers does not match with the insurance behavior because of insufficient income. The performance is that many people who have the intention to insure do not produce the insurance behavior. Therefore, it is one of the insurance marketing strategies that how to break the hesitancy of those people who have the intention to insure to become insurance customers. From the perspective of behavioral economics, this paper puts forward the hypothesis that income level has correlation effect on consumer psychology and insurance behavior, conducts the empirical study, constructs the model of income level—consumer psychology— insurance behavior correlation effect, reveals the transformation mechanism of policy holder’s psychology—willingness—behavior, and puts forward some reasonable suggestions for effectively stimulating consumption to increase the insurance density. Its study value lies in guiding the insurance practice with the basic theory of behavioral insurance, which is helpful for both parties to have a win-win situation and promoting the social security function and coverage of insurance, so as to promote the healthy and orderly development of insurance industry.

Modeling the complex interactions between users and items is at the core of designing successful recommender systems. One key task consists of predicting users’ personalized sequential behavior, where the challenge mainly lies in modeling ‘third-order’ interactions between a user, her previously visited item(s), and the next item to consume. In this paper, we propose a unified method, TransRec, to model such interactions for largescale sequential prediction. Methodologically, we embed items into a ‘transition space’ where users are modeled as translation vectors operating on item sequences. Empirically, this approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on a wide spectrum of real-world datasets.

The development of flexible, viscoelastic materials for consumer 3D printers has provided the opportunity for a wide range of devices with damping behavior such as tuned vibration isolators to be innovatively developed and inexpensively manufactured. However, there is currently little information available about the dynamic behavior of these 3D printed materials necessary for modeling of dynamic behavior prior to print. In order to fully utilize these promising materials, a deeper understanding of the material properties, and the subsequent dynamic behavior is critical. This study evaluates the use of three different types of models: transient response, frequency response and hysteretic response to predict the dynamic behavior of viscoelastic 3D printed materials based on static and dynamic material properties. Models of viscoelastic materials are presented and verified experimentally using two 3D printable materials and two traditional viscoelastic materials. The experimental response of each of the materials shows agreement with the modeled behavior, and underscores the need for improved characterization of the dynamic properties of viscoelastic 3D printable materials.

Variability and uncertainty are the primary challenges for power generation from intermittent, non-dispatchable energy sources. This stochastic behavior could significantly increase the cost of energy. An earlier work developed an interdisciplinary economic model using three-year (2011–2013) wind/load data from two different sites, Pennsylvania New Jersey Maryland Interconnection LLC (PJM) in USA and EirGrid in Ireland. Results showed a wind plus natural gas system can reduce emission as much as 50% below that of an all-natural gas system, with only a slight increase in system cost. Energy storage can be a key element in obtaining energy and cost savings, together with providing availability, reliability, and security of energy supply to consumers. In this paper, grid-scale storage parameters variations (storage capacity, cost, and efficiency) are explored to obtain levelized cost trends for wind systems with storage.

Isolated hybrid wind microgrids operate within three distinct modes, depending on the wind resources and the consumer grid demand: diesel-only (DO), wind-diesel (WD) and wind-only (WO). Few successful systems have been shown to consistently and smoothly transition between wind-diesel and wind-only modes. The University of Alaska – Fairbanks Alaska Center for Energy and Power (ACEP) has constructed a full scale test bed of such a system in order to evaluate technologies that facilitate this transition. The test bed is similar in design to the NREL Power Systems Integration Laboratory (PSIL) and sized to represent a typical off-grid community. The objective of the present work is to model the ACEP test bed in DO and WD modes using MATLAB™ SIMULINK© and then validate the model with actual full-scale laboratory measurements. As will be shown, the frequency responses are grouped into three classifications based on their behavior. The model is shown to be successful in describing the frequency response of relatively small (0.15 per unit) steps in load. Modifications to the excitation system model are discussed which could improve the accuracy for larger steps in load. The ACEP test bed and associated SIMULINK© model are to be used in future work to support investigating WO operation.

Fire modeling software has become increasingly important for the prediction of fire development in industrial and transportation accident scenarios. A key parameter required as input to fire models is the rate at which the fuel load is consumed, often reported as the fuel regression rate. This variable is linked to the energy output of the fire in a tightly coupled, cyclical fashion [1] and, for the most part, must be determined experimentally for model verification. Measurement of fuel regression rate proves to be difficult and is further complicated by the fact that ambient winds are typically significant in large accident scenarios. Wind is known to greatly affect fire behavior [2,3].

As configuration of network services is faced with wide-spread deployment problems requiring considerable human efforts and involvement, Mobile Agent based Network Management System become a central concern. Moreover, the recent developments in the area of mobile agent based network management and ever improving Java Programming language have provided important tools for designing Secure Mobile Agent based Network Management Protocol (SMAN). Again, a roaming agent on a network consumes significant network bandwidth which implies that their frequency and number must be regulated. In a sensitive and intelligent network where the Agent behaviour can be altered dynamically during the lifetime, the proposed system must be genuinely secure with less bandwidth overhead. So, it is necessary to design packet filtering and secure protocol using the modified multi-signcryption protocol for the purpose of efficiency.

Background. Brush encroachment constitutes a serious problem in both Texas and Israel. We addressed the issue of efficacy of livestock herbivory - in the form of goat browsing - to change the ecological balance to the detriment of the shrub vegetation. Shrub consumption by goats is kept low by plant chemical defenses such as tannins and terpenes. Scientists at TAES and ARO have developed an innovative, cost-effective methodology using fecal Near Infrared Spectrometry to elucidate the dietary percentage of targeted, browse species (terpene-richredberry and blueberry juniper in the US, and tannin-rich Pistacialentiscus in Israel) for a large number of animals. The original research objectives of this project were: 1. to clarify the relative preference of goat breeds and the individual variation of goats within breeds, when consuming targeted brush species; 2. to assess the heritability of browse intake and validate the concept of breeding goat lines that exhibit high preference for chemically defended brush, using juniper as a model; 3. to clarify the relative contributions of genetics and learning on the preference for target species; 4. to identify mechanisms that are associated with greater intake of brush from the two target species; 5. to establish when the target species are the most vulnerable to grazing. (Issue no.5 was addressed only partly.) Major conclusions, solutions, achievements: Both the Israel and US scientists put significant efforts into improving and validating the technique of Fecal NIRS for predicting the botanical composition of goat diets. Israeli scientists validated the use of observational data for calibrating fecal NIRS, while US scientists established that calibrations could be used across animals differing in breed and age but that caution should be used in making comparisons between different sexes. These findings are important because the ability to select goat breeds or individuals within a breed for maximal efficiency of brush control is dependent upon accurate measurement of the botanical composition of the diet. In Israel it was found that Damascus goats consume diets more than twice richer in P. lentiscus than Mamber or Boer goats. In the US no differences were found between Angora and Boer cross goats but significant differences were found between individuals within breeds in juniper dietary percentage. In both countries, intervention strategies were found that further increased the consumption of the chemically defended plant. In Israel feeding polyethylene glycol (PEG, MW 4,000) that forms high-affinity complexes with tannins increased P. lentiscus dietary percentage an average of 7 percentage units. In the US feeding a protein supplement, which enhances rates of P450-catalyzed oxidations and therefore the rate of oxidation of monoterpenes, increased juniper consumption 5 percentage units. However, the effects of these interventions were not as large as breed or individual animal effects. Also, in a wide array of competitive tannin-binding assays in Israel with trypsin, salivary proteins did not bind more tannic acid or quebracho tannin than non-specific bovine serum albumin, parotid saliva did not bind more tannins than mixed saliva, no response of tannin-binding was found to levels of dietary tannins, and the breed effect was of minor importance, if any. These fundings strongly suggest that salivary proteins are not the first line of defense from tannin astringency in goats. In the US relatively low values for heritability and repeatability for juniper consumption were found (13% and 30%, respectively), possibly resulting from sampling error or non-genetic transfer of foraging behavior, i.e., social learning. Both alternatives seem to be true as significant variation between sequential observations were noted on the same animal and cross fostering studies conducted in Israel demonstrated that kids raised by Mamber goats showed lower propensity to consume P. lentiscus than counterparts raised by Damascus goats.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.