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Melo, Camylla Maria Narciso de. "Using the WRF numerical model for the purpose of generation eolioelÃtrica: case study for MaracanaÃ, CearÃ." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2013. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=14606.
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FundaÃÃo Cearense de Apoio ao Desenvolvimento Cientifico e TecnolÃgicoThis paper analyzes the mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research And Forecast) to verify its reliability in use as a research tool in areas with potential for eolioeletric generation. The area chosen for study was a farm located in Maracanaà in the state of CearÃ. On the farm was installed an anemometer tower of 80 meters high with three anemometers, 1 windsock, 1 temperature sensor and a pyranometer, all sensors connected to a datalogger. The data collected in this tower were used for comparison with the data obtained through simulations in WRF. In the simulations the model was evaluated for two different climatic conditions in the region, the rainy and the dry seasons. The periods chosen to perform the simulations are: March/2012 (representing the rainy season) and November/2011 (representing the dry season). Was performed five sensitivity tests, which were exchanged in the parameterizations of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), Surface Layer (CS) and Ground Surface Model (GSM). The simulation results were evaluated according to the Pearson's correlation method, that one has parameter values from -1 to 1 which presents an index of correlations ranging from bad (-1) to great (1). The simulation with the best performance in the dry and rainy periods presented values for correlations of 0.76 and 0.58, respectively, considered good and fair to the Pearson's parameters. The model was able to satisfactorily represent the local wind behavior for the dry season of the year, and more research is needed in the area to analyze how the model behaves in the representation of the rainy season. Thus, this model provides satisfactory results to be used as a tool for evaluate areas with potential for eolioeletric generation, more research is needed to fit better.
O presente trabalho analisa o modelo de mesoescala WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) para verificar a sua confiabilidade na utilizaÃÃo como ferramenta de investigaÃÃo de Ãreas com potencial para geraÃÃo eolioelÃtrica. A regiÃo escolhida para estudo foi uma fazenda localizada no municÃpio de MaracanaÃ, no estado do CearÃ. Na fazenda foi instalada uma torre anemomÃtrica de 80 metros de altura com 3 anemÃmetros, 1 biruta, 1 sensor de temperatura e um piranÃmetro, todos os sensores conectados a um datalogger. Os dados coletados nesta torre foram utilizados para comparaÃÃo com os dados obtidos atravÃs das simulaÃÃes no WRF. Nas simulaÃÃes o modelo foi avaliado para duas situaÃÃes climatolÃgicas distintas na regiÃo, o perÃodo chuvoso e o seco. Os perÃodos escolhidos para realizar as simulaÃÃes sÃo: marÃo/2012 (representando o perÃodo chuvoso) e novembro/2011 (representando o perÃodo seco). Foram realizados cinco testes de sensibilidade, nos quais foram permutadas as parametrizaÃÃes da Camada Limite PlanetÃria (CLP), Camada de SuperfÃcie (CS) e o Modelo de Solo SuperfÃcie (MSS). Os resultados das simulaÃÃes foram avaliados segundo o mÃtodo de correlaÃÃo de Pearson, mÃtodo este que possui parÃmetros de valores de -1 a 1 onde apresenta um indicativo de correlaÃÃes que vÃo de pÃssimas (-1) a Ãtimas (1). A simulaÃÃo com o melhor desempenho no perÃodo seco e chuvoso apresentaram valores de correlaÃÃes de 0,76 e 0,58, consideradas forte e moderada, para os parÃmetros de Pearson, respectivamente. O modelo conseguiu representar de forma satisfatÃria o regime de vento local para a estaÃÃo seca do ano, sendo necessÃrias mais pesquisas na Ãrea para analisar como o modelo se comporta na representaÃÃo do perÃodo chuvoso. Assim este modelo apresenta resultados satisfatÃrios para ser utilizado como ferramenta para avaliaÃÃo de regiÃes com potencial em geraÃÃo eolioelÃtrica, sendo necessÃrias mais pesquisas para ajustÃ-lo melhor.
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Yu, Man. "An assessment of urbanization impact in China by using WRF-Chem and configuration optimization." Diss., University of Iowa, 2014. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/1814.
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Urbanization is an inevitable process for every developing and developed country. In China this process accelerated after the reform and open-door policies initialed in 1980s. Urbanization can bring tremendous influences on air quality and in turn adverse health effects. Therefore it is of importance to access and evaluate urbanization process. In this Thesis, we focus on three major impacts in China: land-cover change (from nature land type to urban land type), anthropogenic heat emission (due to human activity), and pollutant emission increase (mainly from industry, power, transportation and residential). The model tool used in this paper is called WRF-Chem (the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecast Model with Chemistry Module). After designing and performing three different sensitivity runs, it turns out that all of these three impacts from urbanization tend to worsen air quality conditions in Beijing, especially for ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The first impact from land-cover change in Chapter 2 increases temperature by 2.4 C; for Beijing and ozone by 20 ppb. Adding human heat release (the second impact) also increases surface temperature by 0.8 C; at daytime and 1.2 C; at nighttime (Chapter 4). Consequently, model outputs a more polluted scenario in Beijing, with 18 ppb more ozone during nocturnal time. When exploring the third impact from emission change, we found out that the government's mitigation regulations on emissions in Beijing has in effect. Around Beijing area, the emissions for CO and SO2 remains the same level from 2006 to 2010, while other cities inside North China Plain are experiencing rapid growths in anthropogenic emissions. Results show a slightly increase in surface temperature and ozone concentrations. Meanwhile, the concentration of particulate matters tends to increase near surface and decrease in the upper atmosphere. For future study, it is highly recommended to include these impacts into model configurations. Additional sensitivity runs were conducted to optimize forecast computing in China, concerning both spatial and vertical resolutions. This sensitivity studies represented 4 different grid resolutions and three different vertical meshes. Regards to the analysis with available observation data, a resolution of 9 km and 27 vertical layers is determined to be the best option for future efficient and accurate forecasts in China. For horizontal aspects, both 81-km and 27-km resolutions are not able to capture pollutant distributions and no significant discrepancy is found out between 9-km and 3-km case. In vertical resolution sensitivity runs, we use 9 layers, 27 layers, and 54 layers mesh with same top and bottom staggers. Analysis reveals totally different vertical profile between 9 layers and 27 layers cases and similar profile between 27 layers and 54 layers. Therefore, we recommend spatial settings with 9-km resolution and a vertical mesh with 27 layers. Finally, the updated 3-d model, involving three urbanization impacts and using recommended resolution settings is used to support a field campaign in summer 2013 for North China Plain. Some preliminary results show a confidence using our model, by capturing both meteorological and chemical trends in Beijing.
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Iotti, Marcello. "Urban boundary layer modeling with WRF: assessment of different urban parameterizations over the city of Bologna." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019.
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Urbanization affects all the components of the Earth system, clearly including the atmosphere. It is therefore important the understanding of cities-related processes and their representation in modeling terms. Many different spatial scales pertain urban modeling: processes linked to a single building or to an
urban district are well represented with microscale methods, but the city as a whole has influences traceable at the mesoscale, a domain traditionally linked to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It is evident the discontinuity of these approaches and the advantage that one would have in connecting them, so that buildings-atmosphere interactions are properly considered in mesoscale atmospheric simulations.
Within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) community various urban parameterizations, with different degree of sophistication, have been developed. In recent years they have found notable applications, but literature focuses mainly on large cities. The purpose of this work is a comparative evaluation of these parameterizations, applied to a medium-sized city such as Bologna.
Their accuracy was evaluated using temperature, wind speed and wind direction data recorded by a set of measurement stations. Finally the spatial structure of 2 m-air temperature and 10 m-wind fields was examined, highlighting the different behavior of urban parameterizations on the city area of Bologna.
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Tastula, Esa-Matti. "Insights into the Challenges of Modeling the Atmospheric Boundary Layer." Scholar Commons, 2015. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/5782.
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This work approaches the topic of modeling the atmospheric boundary layer in four research projects, which are summarized below.
i) The diurnal cycles of near-surface meteorological parameters over Antarctic sea ice in six widely used atmospheric reanalyses were validated against observations from Ice Station Weddell. The station drifted from February through May 1992 and provided the most extensive set of meteorological observations ever collected in the Antarctic sea ice zone. For the radiative and turbulent surface fluxes, both the amplitude and shape of the diurnal cycles varied considerably among different reanalyses. Near-surface temperature, specific humidity, and wind speed in the reanalyses all featured small diurnal ranges, which, in most cases, fell within the uncertainties of the observed cycle. A skill score approach revealed the superiority of the ERA-Interim reanalysis in reproducing the observed diurnal cycles. An explanation for the shortcomings in the reanalyses is their failure to capture the diurnal cycle in cloud cover fraction, which leads to errors in other quantities as well. Apart from the diurnal cycles, NCEP-CFSR gave the best error statistics.
ii) The accuracy of prediction of stable atmospheric boundary layers depends on the parameterization of the surface layer which is usually derived from the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. In this study, several surface-layer models in the format of velocity and potential temperature Deacon numbers were compared to observations from CASES-99, Cardington, and Halley datasets. The comparisons were hindered by a large amount of scatter within and among datasets. Tests utilizing R2 demonstrated that the Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE) theory exhibits the best overall performance. Further proof of this was provided by 1D simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
iii) The increasing number of physics parameterization schemes adopted in numerical weather forecasting models has resulted in a proliferation of inter-comparison studies in recent years. Many of these studies concentrated on determining which parameterization yields results closest to observations rather than analyzing the reasons underlying the differences. In this work, the performance of two 1.5-order boundary layer parameterizations was studied, the QNSE and Mellor-Yamada-Janjić (MYJ) schemes, in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The objectives were to isolate the effect of stability functions on the near-surface values and vertical profiles of virtual temperature, mixing ratio and wind speed. The results demonstrate that the QNSE stability functions yield better error statistics for 2-m virtual temperature but higher up the errors related to QNSE are slightly larger for virtual temperature and mixing ratio. A surprising finding is the sensitivity of the model results to the choice of the turbulent Prandtl number for neutral stratification (Prt0): in the Monin-Obukhov similarity function for heat, the choice of Prt0 is sometimes more important than the functional form of the similarity function itself. There is a stability-related dependence to this sensitivity: with increasing near-surface stability, the relative importance of the functional form increases. In near-neutral conditions, QNSE exhibits too strong vertical mixing attributed to the applied turbulent kinetic energy subroutine and the stability functions including the effect of Prt0.
iv) In recent years, many eddy-diffusivity mass flux (EDMF) planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations have been introduced. Yet, most validations are based on idealized setups and/or single column models. To address this gap, this study focused on the effect the mass flux part has on the performance in the QNSE-EDMF PBL scheme in the WRF model by comparing the results to observations from the CASES-97 field campaign. In addition, two refined versions, one introducing the parameterized clouds to the WRF radiation scheme, and the second adding a different entrainment formulation, were evaluated. The introduction of mass flux reduced errors in the average moisture profile but virtual temperature and wind speed profiles did not change as much. The turbulent flux profiles for modeled virtual potential temperature were little affected, with consistent reasonable agreement with observations, if one allows for biases in the observed data and modeled surface fluxes. However, the water vapor flux divergences from QNSE tend to be more negative than observed, while including the mass flux part tends to make the divergences more positive, the latter at least partially due to deeper model PBLs resulting from excessive model surface virtual temperature fluxes. Further, both virtual potential temperature and water vapor flux profiles display spurious spikes attributed to the way the non-local and local terms interact in the model. The influence of the mass flux schemes extends to 60 – 100-km scale circulation features, which were greatly modified by both the inclusion of mass flux and the new entrainment formulation. Adding mass flux based clouds to the radiation calculation improved the time and space averaged modeled incoming shortwave flux. The choice of the representation for entrainment/detrainment often affected the results to the same extent as adding mass flux did.
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Wille, Jonathan D. "Analysis of the AMPS-Polar WRF Boundary Layer at the Alexander Tall Tower! site on the Ross Ice Shelf." The Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1437500291.
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MARTINS, Rafael Castelo Guedes. "Estudo da sensibilidade do modelo WRF às parametrizações de microfísica de nuvens e à assimilação de dados observados." Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, 2014. http://dspace.sti.ufcg.edu.br:8080/jspui/handle/riufcg/1466.
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RAFAEL CASTELO GUEDES MARTINS – TESE (PPGMet) 2014.pdf: 3362803 bytes, checksum: 5a99c28e73f6a95fef76f82f96d2edc4 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-15T19:02:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 RAFAEL CASTELO GUEDES MARTINS – TESE (PPGMet) 2014.pdf: 3362803 bytes, checksum: 5a99c28e73f6a95fef76f82f96d2edc4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-12
Um dos principais desafios atuais da modelagem numérica da atmosfera trata da previsão quantitativa da precipitação e do posicionamento das nuvens de chuva. Este trabalho tem com o principal objetivo avaliar o desempenho das arametrizações de microfísicas na modelagem regional com ênfase no papel da informação de grande escala e sua influência sobre as simulações, e no uso de dados observados de radiossondagens como forma de acrescentar informação à modelagem . Inicialmente, duas reanálises (NCEP2 e ERAI) foram estatisticamente comparadas com dados de PCDs do Estado do Ceará. Verificou - se qu e a ERAI apresentou maior semelhança com as observações, principalmente para as variáveis diretamente ligadas à convecção. Em seguida, a ERAI foi utilizada como forçamento de grande escala em simulações com o modelo WRF. Observou- se que o uso de microfísica detalhada não melhora necessariamente a previsão do modelo, caso não sejam utilizados dados observados no local de estudo. Por último, duas simulações de alta resolução foram realizadas. Uma forçada pela reanálise sem modificação e outra forçada pela reanálise modificada utilizando o método de análise objetiva do WRF, para incluir as séries temporais de radiossondagens coletadas durante campanha experimental do Projeto CHUVA, em Fortaleza- CE. As duas simulações foram comparadas com dados observados pelo radiômetro para o mesmo local e período das radiossondagens . Observou - se que a inclusão das observações de sondagens na modelagem possibilita melhor modelagem de um sistema convectivo ocorrido em abril de 2011, principalmente para as variáveis ligadas à convecção. Este trabalho aponta, utilizando análises comparativas e estatísticas, que a utilização de uma maior densidade de dados observacionais válidos no modelo pode melhorar de forma muito mais eficiente o resultado da modelagem, do que mesmo a utilização do downscaling dinâmico do dado de grande escala ou a utilização de esquemas de microfísica detalhada, que, em algumas situações, pode inclusive inserir mais erros nos sistema s modelados.
The quantitative prediction of precipitation and the positioning of the rain clouds is one of the main challenges of numerical modeling of the atmosphere in present days. This work aims to evaluate the performance of the microphysical parameterizations in regional modeling, with emphasis on the role of large- scale information and its influence on the simulations, and the use of observational data from radiosondes as a way to add information to modeling. Initially, two reanalysis (NCEP2 and ERAI) were statistically compared with data from PCDs from the Ceará State. It was found that the ERAI showed similarity to the observations, especially for variables directly linked to convection. Then, the ERAI is used as large scale forcing in simulations with the WRF model. It was observed that the use of detailed microphysics does not necessarily improve the model performance, if in situ data were not used. Finally, two high resolution simulations were performed. The first f orced by reanalysis without modification and other forced by reanalysis using the modified method of objective analysis of the WRF, to include the time series of radiosonde observations collected during the experimental campaign of the CHUVA Project in Fortaleza- CE. The two simulations were compared with data observed by the radiometer to the same place and period of the radiosonde. It was observed that the inclusion of radiosonde observations in to the model leads to a better simulation of a convective system that occurred in April 2011, mostly for the variables related to convection. Using comparative statistical analysis, t his work points that the use of a higher density of valid observational data in the model can improve much more efficiently the model results than the use of a dynamic downscal ing of large- scale data or the use of schemes with detailed microphysics, which in some circumstances may even introduce more errors into the modeled system s.
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Lawless, Zachary David. "Modeling Current and Future Windblown Utah Dust Events Using CMAQ 5.3.1." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2021. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/9165.
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Windblown dust events can be defined as windblown dust emitted from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere. These events have significant impact on local air quality. Predicting the location and magnitude of these events is vital for Utah air quality assessment and planning. Previous modeling studies have focused only on past dust events. This work utilized a state-of-the-science software framework based on the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) v5.3.1 modeling system to predict dust events in Utah. The framework was verified using previous studies for dust events in April 2017 and March 2010. Once verified, the framework was used to predict the impact of future land use properties on dust events. Two scenarios were studied – shrinking of the Great Salt Lake and the addition of large-scale solar farms west of the Wasatch Front. Both showed increases in dust concentrations overpopulated areas using the meteorological conditions from the April 2017 dust event. Such information from future impact studies can assess potential impacts from climate change and can guide government water and land use policies to mitigate dust event impacts.
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Santoni, Gregory Winn. "Fluxes of Atmospheric Methane Using Novel Instruments, Field Measurements, and Inverse Modeling." Thesis, Harvard University, 2013. http://dissertations.umi.com/gsas.harvard:10941.
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The atmospheric concentration of methane \((CH_4)\) - the most significant non-\(CO_2\) anthropogenic long-lived greenhouse gas - stabilized between 1999 and 2006 and then began to rise again. Explanations for this behavior differ but studies agree that more measurements and better modeling are needed to reliably explain the model-data discrepancies and predict future change. This dissertation focuses on measurements of \(CH_4\) and inverse modeling of atmospheric \(CH_4\) fluxes using field measurements at a variety of spatial scales. We first present a new fast-response instrument to measure the isotopic composition of \(CH_4\) in ambient air. The instrument was used to characterize mass fluxes and isofluxes (a isotopically-weighted mass flux) from a well-studied research fen in New Hampshire. Eddy-covariance and automatic chamber techniques produced consistent estimates of both the \(CH_4\) fluxes and their isotopic composition at sub-hourly resolution. We then characterize fluxes of \(CH_4\) from aircraft engines using measurements made with the same instrument during the Alternative Aviation Fuel Experiment (AAFEX), a study that aimed to determine the atmospheric impacts of alternative fuel use in the growing aviation industry. Emissions of \(CO_2\), \(CH_4\), and \(N_2O\) from different synthetic fuels were statistically indistinguishable from those of the widely used JP-8 jet fuel. We then present airborne observations of the long-lived greenhouse gas suite – \(CO_2\), \(CH_4\), \(N_2O\), and CO – during two aircraft campaigns, HIPPO and CalNex, made using a similar instrument built specifically for the NCAR HIAPER GV aircraft. These measurements are compared to data from other onboard sensors and show excellent agreement. We discuss the details of the end-to-end calibration procedures and the data quality-assurance and quality-control (QA/QC). Lastly, we quantify a top-down estimate of California’s \(CH_4\) emission inventory using the CalNex \(CH_4\) observations. Observed \(CH_4\) enhancements above background concentrations are simulated using a lagrangian transport model driven by validated meteorology. A priori source-specific emission inventories are optimized in a Bayesian inversion framework to show that California’s \(CH_4\) budget is 1.6 ± 0.34 times larger than the current estimate of California’s Air Resources Board (CARB), the body charged with enforcing the California Global Solutions Act and tracking emission changes over time. Findings highlight large underestimates of emissions from cattle and natural gas infrastructure.Earth and Planetary Sciences
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Darmenov, Anton. "Developing and testing a coupled regional modeling system for establishing an integrated modeling and observational framework for dust aerosol." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/28217.
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Thesis (M. S.)--Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.Committee Chair: Sokolik, Irina; Committee Member: Curry, Judith; Committee Member: Kalashnikova, Olga; Committee Member: Nenes, Athanasios; Committee Member: Stieglitz, Marc.
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Silva, Natália Pillar da. "Estudo dos Mecanismos Vinculados ao Estabelecimento de um Evento de ZCAS Através de Simulações com o Modelo WRF." Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/14/14133/tde-03082018-101530/.
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No presente estudo, os mecanismos vinculados à formação de um intenso evento de Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS) foram investigados. Para isso, uma análise observacional foi realizada para identificação desse sistema e seguinte implementação de um estudo numérico em uma escala sub-sazonal. Uma vez que a atividade da ZCAS é predominantemente concentrada em uma das regiões de maior importância socioeconômica da América do Sul, os estudos de previsibilidade dessa feição são extremamente importantes. O evento escolhido pela análise observacional foi caracterizado pelo suporte de uma estrutura em larga escala para seu desenvolvimento e persistência, através da presença de um vórtice ciclônico na região costeira do sudeste do Brasil. A representação numérica desse caso de ZCAS foi particularmente desafiadora, uma vez que trata-se de um sistema complexo, cujo desenvolvimento e evolução conectam-se a características atmosféricas de grande escala. Para aprimorar a representação numérica desse evento, várias aplicações utilizando-se nudging espectral foram testadas, para garantir que as características de grande escala que suportam o sistema fossem bem representadas pelo modelo numérico. Os resultados mostram que a alternativa menos restritiva para a aplicação do nudging espectral mostrou-se ideal para manter suas características importantes, e ainda permitindo que os componentes físicos do modelo contribuam com a representação da atmosfera em escalas menores. A partir disso, novos experimentos numéricos foram conduzidos para uma avaliação de como diferentes parametrizações convectivas e microfísica representam a banda de precipitação associada ao sistema. Os resultados mostram que, quando usados juntos, tanto a opção de microfísica WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) quanto a opção cumulus de Kain-Fritsch (KF) contribuíram para a formação da banda convectiva associada à ZCAS. Os resultados também mostram que é possível usar um esquema de microfísica mais simples (WSM3) para a representação do sistema, uma vez que os desempenhos entre os diferentes testes em microfísica foram semelhantes.In the present study, the mechanisms and formation of an intense South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) event were investigated. For this, an observational analysis was performed to identify this system for the implementation of a numerical study on a sub-seasonal scale. Since the SACZ activity is predominantly concentrated over one of the most socioeconomically important regions of South America, predictability studies for this system are extremely valuable. The SACZ event chosen by the observational analysis was supported by a large-scale structure that featured a cyclonic vortex in the coastal region of southeastern Brazil. The numerical representation of a SACZ case in this context was particularly challenging since the SACZ is a very complex system and its development and evolution are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric features. To improve the numerical representation of such event, several spectral nudging applications were tested to ensure the large scale features that support the systems are well represented by the numerical model. Results show that the less restrictive alternative for the spectral nudging application was ideal for maintaining important features in large scales while still allowing the physical components of the model to contribute the representation of the atmosphere on smaller scales. From this, numerical experiments were conducted for an evaluation of how different convective parametrizations and microphysics represent the precipitation band associated to the system. The results show that, when used together, both WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) microphysics option and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus option contributed to the formation of convective band associated with the SACZ. Results also show that it is possible to use a simpler microphysics scheme (WSM3) for the representation of the system, since the performances between different tests in microphysics were similar.
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Haines, Wesley Adam. "Acceleration of the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model using OpenACC and Case Study of the August 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone." The Ohio State University, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1373472482.
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Abdioskouei, Maryam. "Improving air quality prediction through characterizing the model errors using data from comprehensive field experiments." Diss., University of Iowa, 2018. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/6535.
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Uncertainty in the emission estimates is one the main reasons for shortcomings in the Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) which can reduce the confidence level of impact assessment of anthropogenic activities on air quality and climate. This dissertation focuses on understating the uncertainties within the CTMs and reducing these uncertainties by improving emission estimates
The first part of this dissertation focuses on reducing the uncertainties around the emission estimates from oil and Natural Gas (NG) operations by using various observations and high-resolution CTMs. To achieve this goal, we used Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model in conjunction with extensive measurements from two major field campaigns in Colorado. Ethane was used as the indicator of oil and NG emissions to explore the sensitivity of ethane to different physical parametrizations and simulation set-ups in the WRF-Chem model using the U.S. EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI-2011). The sensitivity analysis shows up to 57.3% variability in the modeled ethane normalized mean bias (NMB) across the simulations, which highlights the important role of model configurations on the model performance.
Comparison between airborne measurements and the sensitivity simulations shows a model-measurement bias of ethane up to -15ppb (NMB of -80%) in regions close to oil and NG activities. Under-prediction of ethane concentration in all sensitivity runs suggests an actual under-estimation of the oil and NG emissions in the NEI-2011 in Colorado. To reduce the error in the emission inventory, we developed a three-dimensional variational inversion technique. Through this method, optimal scaling factors up to 6 for ethane emission rates were calculated. Overall, the inversion method estimated between 11% to 15% higher ethane emission rates in the Denver-Julesburg basin compared to the NEI-201. This method can be extended to constrain oil and NG emissions in other regions in the US using the available measurement datasets.
The second part of the dissertation discusses the University of Iowa high-resolution chemical weather forecast framework using WRF-Chem designed for the Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS-2017). LMOS field campaign took place during summer 2017 to address high ozone episodes in coastal communities surrounding Lake Michigan. The model performance for clouds, on-shore flows, and surface and aircraft sampled ozone and NOx concentrations found that the model successfully captured much of the observed synoptic variability of onshore flows. Selection of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model as initial and boundary condition, and the Noah land surface model, significantly improved comparison of meteorology variables to both ground-based and aircraft data. Model consistently underestimated the daily maximum concentration of ozone. Emission sensitivity analysis suggests that increase in Hydrocarbon (HC). Variational inversion method and measurements by GeoTAS and TROPOMI instruments and airborne and ground-based measurements can be used to constrain NOx emissions in the region.
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Cuchiara, Gustavo Copstein, and Gustavo Copstein Cuchiara. "Modelagem da poluição do ar por reações fotoquímicas associada à fontes veiculares na região metropolitana de Porto Alegre." Universidade Federal de Pelotas, 2011. http://repositorio.ufpel.edu.br/handle/ri/2204.
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Previous issue date: 2011-02-23One of the main problems related to air pollution in urban areas is caused by photochemical oxidants....
Um dos maiores problemas originados pela poluição do ar em áreas urbanas é o provocado pelos oxidantes fotoquímicos....
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Duine, Gert-Jan. "Caractérisation des vents de vallée en conditions stables à partir de la campagne de mesures KASCADE et de simulations WRF à méso-échelle." Thesis, Toulouse 3, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015TOU30258/document.
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Cette thèse est dédiée à la caractérisation des vents descendants de vallée en terrain complexe d'orographie modérée à moyenne latitude, dans le contexte de la réglementation des rejets atmosphériques de Cadarache. Cadarache est un des centres de recherche du "Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives" (CEA), installé dans une petite vallée (CV) confluente à la vallée de la Durance (DV). Ces deux vallées se distinguent par leur taille, et sont le siège d'écoulements aux caractéristiques différentes en stratification stable. Un forçage synoptique faible associé à un ciel dégagé sont dans la région des conditions fréquentes qui favorisent la stabilité atmosphérique et consécutivement la mauvaise dispersion des polluants, faisant de cette situation un sujet d'intérêt majeur. La campagne de mesure KASCADE (KAtabatic winds and Stability over CAdarache for Dispersion of Effluents) constitue le volet expérimental de l'étude. Réalisée pendant l'hiver 2013 elle a couvert 3 mois d'observation continue et complétée de 23 périodes d'observation intensive (POI). L'analyse montre que les écoulements descendant les vallées de Cadarache (CDV) et de la Durance (DDV) dominent pendant toute la période d'étude. La stabilité s'installant dès le coucher du soleil, le courant CDV s'épaissit progressivement. Le profil de vent en forme de jet présente son maximum à environ 30 m où il atteint 2 à 3 m s-1. Il se maintient toute la nuit et disparaît avec l'inversion de stabilité. Comme la station météorologique du centre manque de capteur de vent dans la CV même, une méthode a été développée pour diagnostiquer le CDV en exploitant l'instrumentation actuelle. Ainsi, si la prévision de ce vent n'est pas à la portée du modèle méso-échelle WRF avec une résolution kilométrique, cette méthode le permet en combinant une descente d'échelle dynamique et statistique. Le vent DDV est identifié comme un vent qui suit l'axe de la vallée, fortement corrélé à la stabilité à l'échelle régionale car il n'apparaît que la nuit lorsque le forçage synoptique est faible. Ce vent n'arrive à Cadarache que 6 à 9 heures après le coucher du soleil avec une grande variabilité. D'un autre côté, il est à son maximum au lever du soleil avant que les processus convectifs ne démarrent, et présente un jet autour de 200 m avec des vitesses de 4 à 8 m s-1 et dont la hauteur est corrélée à la profondeur de la vallée. Dans les simulations avec WRF, malgré des défauts, la DV étant bien résolue avec une maille de 1 km, l'occurrence de ce vent est assez bien simulée. Par ailleurs l'examen de ses caractéristiques spatiales montre qu'il s'agit soit d'un écoulement de drainage, soit d'un écoulement canalisé forcé. Bien qu'on ne dispose pas de données suffisantes pour élucider le mécanisme dominant de déclenchement du vent DDV, les deux précédemment identifiés sont de bons candidatsStable stratification can be one of the most penalizing condition concerning pollutants in the atmospheric boundary layer. Over complex terrain under these conditions, the relief may modify the flow. Therefore the knowledge of down-valley wind characteristics influencing the wind field at Cadarache and its close surroundings is crucial for safety regulation in the context of sanitary impact of the site. Cadarache is a CEA research centre and located in the Prealps of southeast France. It is embedded in a small valley, the Cadarache Valley (CV), which is one of the tributaries of the larger Durance Valley (DV). The two valleys are distinct in size and therefore react differently to stable conditions, and are investigated by means of observations (field experiment KASCADE : KAtabatic winds and Stability over CADarache for Dispersion of Effluents) and simulations (the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model). To investigate the valley wind behaviour, the KASCADE campaign has been designed and conducted in the winter of 2013, covering a 3-month period and 23 intensive observation periods (IOP). It resulted in a well-documented campaign, from which the analysis shows that the Cadarache and Durance down-valley (CDV and DDV respectively) winds are both dominant flows during the period of investigation. The CDV wind is a thermally driven flow, with regular wind speeds up to 2 - 3 m s-1 up to 50 m agl. It persists throughout the night and disappears in the early morning with the stability. The current observational network of Cadarache lacks means of measurement for inside CDV wind. This work shows that it can be nowcasted from available meteorological tower observations. Due to the CV small scale, currently a wind forecast on kilometer resolution is out of reach, but the methodology developed here can be used to forecast the wind through a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling. The DDV wind has been recognized as down-valley oriented, and strongly related to stability at a regional scale, as it exists only after sunset when synoptic forcing is very weak. DDV wind arrival at Cadarache is mostly observed 6 to 9 hours after sunset, but however dominantly present around sunrise, when convectively driven processes are not yet established. Jets are observed mostly at around 200 m agl with wind speeds between 4 and 8 m s-1. Despite some (general) deficiencies of the WRF model, the DDV wind is simulated close to reality thanks to the 1-km resolution allowing a correct representation of the Durance valley orography. The ensemble of 23 simulated IOPs allowed further to characterize the flow in a spatial sense and to recognize drainage and flow channelling as most important candidates for the flow mechanism
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Gaines, Mitchell. "Application of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to Simulate a Squall Line: Implications of Choosing Parameterization Scheme Combinations and Model Initialization Data Sets." TopSCHOLAR®, 2012. http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/theses/1181.
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On January 29-30, 2008 a squall line of thunderstorms moved through the Ohio Valley resulting in four deaths and one injury. Such events highlight the importance of accurate forecasting for public safety. Mesoscale Modeling plays an important role in any forecast of a potential squall line. The focus of this study was to examine the performance of several parameterization scheme combinations in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model version three (WRF) as they related to this event. These examinations included cloud microphysics (WRF Single-Moment 3-class, 6-class, and Goddard), cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch and Bets-Miller-Janjic) and planetary boundary layer schemes (Yonsei-University and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic). A total of 12 WRF simulations were conducted for all potential scheme combinations. Data from the WRF simulations for several locations in south central Kentucky were analyzed and compared using Kentucky Mesonet observations for four locations: Bowling Green, Russellville, Murray and Liberty, KY. A fine model resolution of 1 km was used over these locations. Coarser resolutions of 3 km and 9 km were used on the outer two domains, which encompassed the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The model simulation performance was assessed using established statistical measures for the above four locations and by visually comparing the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset (NARR) along with modeled simulations. The most satisfactory scheme combination was the WRF Single-Moment 3-class Microphysics scheme, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme and Yonsei University scheme for the planetary boundary layer. The planetary boundary layer schemes were noted to have the greatest influence in determining the most satisfactory model simulations. There was limited influence from different selections of microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes. The preferred physics parameters from these simulations were then used in six additional simulations to analyze the affect different initialization data sets have with regards to model output. Data sets used in these simulations were the Final Operational Analysis global data, North American Regional Reanalysis (3 and 6 hour) and the North American Mesoscale Model at 1, 3 and 6 hour timesteps, for a total of six simulations. More timesteps or an increase in model resolution did not materially improve the model performance.
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Roukounakis, Nikolaos. "Application d'un modèle météorologique à haute résolution à la correction troposphérique d'observations interférométriques de radar à synthèse d'ouverture (InSAR) dans la région de l'ouest du golfe de Corinthe, Grèce." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PSLEE042.
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La Géodésie spatiale, par interférométrie radar à synthèse d’ouverture (InSAR) et Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), permet de cartographier les déformations tectoniques de la Terre. Les vitesses inter-sismiques, sont petites, de l’ordre de quelques mm an⁻¹. Pour atteindre une précision de positionnement relatif millimétrique, surtout dans la composante verticale, les délais troposphériques affectant les signaux GNSS et InSAR doivent être parfaitement corrigés. Pour le GNSS, les délais troposphériques peuvent être évalués précisément grâce à la géométrie d’observation et à la redondance des données. La précision est telle que ces délais sont désormais assimilés en routine dans les modèles météorologiques. La correction des interférogrammes est plus complexe parce que les données InSAR ne contiennent pas d’information permettant de remonter explicitement aux délais troposphériques. Au premier ordre, il est possible de calculer la part de l’interférogramme corrélée avec la topographie et de la corriger. Mais cette correction n’éliminer pas les hétérogénéités de courte longueurs d'onde ni les gradients régionaux. Pour cela il faut utiliser d’autres méthodes qui peuvent être basées sur l’utilisation des délais zénithaux GNSS disponibles dans la région ou sur des modèles météorologiques à haute résolution, ou sur une combinaison des deux. Les délais zénithaux GNSS présentent l’intérêt de leur exactitude et de leur précision maîtrisée, mais dans la plupart des régions, ils ne sont disponibles, au mieux, qu’à quelques dizaines de points dans une image typique de 100 x 100 km. À l’opposé les modèles troposphériques à haute résolution apportent une vision matricielle globale, cependant leur précision est difficile à évaluer, surtout en zone de montagne. Dans ma thèse, je calcule, sur la partie ouest du golfe de Corinthe, et pour l’année 2016, des modèles météorologiques à la résolution de 1 km, à l’aide du modèle américain WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). Je compare les délais zénithaux prédits par le modèle avec ceux observés à dix-neuf stations GNSS permanentes. Ces données GNSS me permettent de choisir, parmi cinque jeux différents de paramètres de calcul WRF, celui qui aboutit au meilleur accord entre les délais GNSS et ceux issus de mes modèles. Je compare ensuite les séries temporelles GNSS de l’année 2016 aux sorties de modèles aux dix-neuf pixels correspondants. J’utilise enfin les sorties de mes modèles pour corriger les interférogrammes Sentinel-1 produits dans la zone d’étude avec des intervalles d’acquisition de 6, 12, 18 et 24 jours pour lesquels la cohérence des interférogramme demeure généralement élevée. Je montre qu’un modèle météorologique à haute résolution, ajusté à l'échelle locale à l’aide de données GNSS disponibles, permet une correction troposphérique des interférogrammes qui élimine une partie significative des effets de courte longueur d’onde, jusqu’à 5 km environ, donc plus courte que la longueur d’onde typique du reliefSpace geodesy techniques (SAR interferometry and GNSS) have recently emerged as an important tool for mapping regional surface deformations due to tectonic movements. A limiting factor to this technique is the effect of the troposphere, as horizontal and vertical surface velocities are of the order of a few mm yr⁻¹, and high accuracy (to mm level) is essential. The troposphere introduces a path delay in the microwave signal, which, in the case of GNSS Precise Point Positioning (PPP), can nowadays be successfully removed with the use of specialized mapping functions. Moreover, tropospheric stratification and short wavelength spatial turbulences produce an additive noise to the low amplitude ground deformations calculated by the (multitemporal) InSAR methodology. InSAR atmospheric phase delay corrections are much more challenging, as opposed to GNSS PPP, due to the single pass geometry and the gridded nature of the acquired data. Several methods have been proposed, including Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal delay estimations, satellite multispectral imagery analysis, and empirical phase/topography estimations. These methods have their limitations, as they rely either on local data assimilation, which is rarely available, or on empirical estimations which are difficult in situations where deformation and topography are correlated. Thus, the precise knowledge of the tropospheric parameters along the propagation medium is extremely useful for the estimation and minimization of atmospheric phase delay, so that the remaining signal represents the deformation mostly due to tectonic or other geophysical processes. In this context, the current PhD Thesis aims to investigate the extent to which a high-resolution weather model, such as WRF, can produce detailed tropospheric delay maps of the required accuracy, by coupling its output (in terms of Zenith Total Delay or ZTD) with the vertical delay component in GNSS measurements. The model initially is operated with varying parameterization in order to demonstrate the best possible configuration for our study, with GNSS measurements providing a benchmark of real atmospheric conditions. In the next phase, the two datasets (predicted and observed) are compared and statistically evaluated for a period of one year, in order to investigate the extent to which meteorological parameters that affect ZTD, can be simulated accurately by the model under different weather conditions. Finally, a novel methodology is tested, in which ZTD maps produced from WRF and validated with GNSS measurements in the first phase of the experiment are used as a correction method to eliminate the tropospheric effect from selected InSAR interferograms. Results show that a high-resolution weather model which is fine-tuned at the local scale can provide a valuable tool for the tropospheric correction of InSAR remote sensing data
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Dingwell, Adam. "Dispersion modelling of volcanic emissions." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-303959.
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Gases and particles released by volcanoes pose a serious hazard to humans and society. Emissions can be transported over long distances before being reduced to harmless concentrations. Knowing which areas are, or will be, exposed to volcanic emissions is an important part inreducing the impact on human health and society. In this thesis, the dispersion of volcanic emissions is studied using a set of atmospheric models. The work includes contribution to the development of the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART-WRF. Three case studies have been performed, one studying potential ash emissions from potential future eruptions on Iceland, a second covering SO2 emissions from Mt. Nyiragongo in D.R. Congo, and a third studying the SO2 emission rate of the Holuhraun eruption (Iceland) in 2014–2015. The first study covers volcanic ash hazard for air traffic over Europe. Three years of meteorological data are used to repeatedly simulate dispersion from different eruption scenarios. The simulations are used to study the probability of hazardous concentrations in ash in European airspace. The ash hazard shows a seasonal variation with a higher probability of efficient eastward transport in winter, while summer eruptions pose a more persistent hazard. In the second study, regional gas exposure around Mt. Nyiragongo is modelled using flux measurements to improve the description of the emission source. Gases are generally transported to the north-west in June–August and to the south-west in December–January. A diurnal variation due to land breeze around lake Kivu contributes to high concentrations of SO2 along the northern shore during the night. Potentially hazardous concentrations are occasionally reached in populated areas in the region, but mainly during the nights. The third study uses inverse dispersion modelling to determine the height and emission rates based on traverse measurements of the plume at 80–240 km from the source. The calculated source term yields better agreement with satellite observations compared to commonly used column sources. The work in this thesis presents improvements in dispersion modelling of volcanic emissions through improved models, more accurate representation of the source terms, and through incorporating new types of measurements into the modelling systems.Gas- och partikelutsläpp från vulkaner utgör en fara för människor och för vårt samhälle. Utsläppen kan transporteras över långa avstånd innan de reduceras till oskadliga halter. Att känna till vilka områden som utsätts för, eller kommer utsättas för, utsläppen är ett viktigt verktyg föratt minska påverkan på folkhälsa och samhälle. I avhandlingen studeras spridningen av utsläpp från vulkanutbrott med hjälp av en uppsättning numeriska atmosfärsmodeller. Den Lagrangiska Partikelspridningsmodellen FLEXPART-WRF har förbättrats och applicerats för spridningsmodellering av vulkanutbrott. Tre studier har utförts, en fokuserar på vulkanaska från potentiella framtida utbrott på Island, den andra studerar SO2-ustläpp från vulkanen Nyiragongo i Demokratiska Republiken Kongo, och den tredje studerar SO2-ustläpp från utbrottet i Holuhraun (Island) 2014–2015. Den första studien uppskattar sannolikheten för att vulkanaska från framtida vulkanutbrott på Island ska överskrida de gränsvärden som tillämpas för flygtrafik. Tre år av meteorologisk data används för att simulera spridningen från olika utbrottsscenarier. Sannolikheten för skadliga halter aska varierar med årstid, med en högre sannolikhet för effektiv transport österut under vintermånaderna, sommarutbrott är istället mer benägna att orsaka långvariga problem överspecifika områden. In den andra studien undersöks spridningen av SO2 från Nyiragongo över en ettårsperiod. Flödesmätningar av plymen används för att förbättra källtermen i modellen. Gaserna transporteras i regel mot nordväst i juni–augusti och mot sydväst i december–februari En dygnsvariation, kopplad till mesoskaliga processer runt Kivusjön, bidrar till förhöjda halter av SO2 nattetid längs Kivusjöns norra kust. Potentiellt skadliga halter av SO2 uppnås av och till i befolkade områden men huvudsakligen nattetid. Den tredje studien utnyttjar inversmodellering för att avgöra plymhöjd och gasutsläpp baserat på traversmätningar av plymen runt 80–240 km från utsläppskällan. Den beräknade källtermen resulterar i bättre överensstämmelse mellan modell- och satellitdata jämfört med enklare källtermer. Arbetet i den här avhandlingen presenterar flertalet förbättringar för spridningsmodellering av vulkanutbrott genom bättre modeller, nogrannare beskrivning av källtermer, och genom nya metoder för tillämpning av olika typer av mätdata.
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Shepherd, Tristan James. "A Numerical Modelling Study of Tropical Cyclone Sidr (2007): Sensitivity Experiments Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/2611.
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The tropical cyclone is a majestic, yet violent atmospheric weather system occurring over tropical waters. Their majesty evolves from the significant range of spatial scales they operate over: from the mesoscale, to the larger synoptic-scale. Their associated violent winds and seas, however, are often the cause of damage and destruction for settlements in their path. Between 10/11/07 and 16/11/07, tropical cyclone Sidr formed and intensified into a category 5 hurricane over the southeast tropical waters of the northern Indian Ocean. Sidr tracked west, then north, during the course of its life, and eventually made landfall on 15/11/07, as a category 4 cyclone near the settlement of Barguna, Bangladesh. The storm affected approximately 2.7 million people in Bangladesh, and of that number 4234 were killed. In this study, the dynamics of tropical cyclone Sidr are simulated using version 2.2.1 of Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting — a non-hydrostatic, two-way interactive, triply-nested-grid mesoscale model. Three experiments were developed examining model sensitivity to ocean-atmosphere interaction; initialisation time; and choice of convective parameterisation scheme. All experiments were verified against analysed synoptic data. The ocean-atmosphere experiment involved one simulation of a cold sea surface temperature, fixed at 10 °C; and simulated using a 15 km grid resolution. The initialisation experiment involved three simulations of different model start time: 108-, 72-, and 48-hours before landfall respectively. These were simulated using a 15 km grid resolution. The convective experiment consisted of four simulations, with three of these using a different implicit convective scheme. The three schemes used were, the Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller-Janjic, and Grell-Devenyi ensemble. The fourth case simulated convection explicitly. A nested domain of 5km grid spacing was used in the convective experiment, for high resolution modelling. In all experiments, the Eta-Ferrier microphysics scheme, and the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme were used. As verified against available observations, the model showed considerable sensitivity in each of the experiments. The model was found to be well suited for combining ocean-atmosphere interactions: a cool sea surface caused cyclone Sidr to dissipate within 24 hours. The initialisation simulations indicated moderate model sensitivity to initialisation time: variations were found for both cyclone track and intensity. Of the three simulations, an initialisation time 108 hours prior to landfall, was found to most accurately represent cyclone Sidr’s track and intensity. Finally, the convective simulations showed that considerable differences were found in cyclone track, intensity, and structure, when using different convective schemes. The Kain-Fritsch scheme produced the most accurate cyclone track and structure, but the rainfall rate was spurious on the sub-grid-scale. The Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme resolved realistic rainfall on both domains, but cyclone intensity was poor. Of particular significance, was that explicit convection produced a similar result to the Grell-Devenyi ensemble for both model domain resolutions. Overall, the results suggest that the modelled cyclone is highly sensitive to changes in initial conditions. In particular, in the context of other studies, it appears that the combination of convective scheme, microphysics scheme, and boundary layer scheme, are most significant for accurate track and intensity prediction.
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Lian, Jinghui. "Understanding how emissions and atmospheric transport control the variations of atmospheric CO2 in the Paris area : insights from laser-based measurements at city scale." Electronic Thesis or Diss., université Paris-Saclay, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020UPASV010.
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Récemment, plusieurs tentatives ont été faites afin de quantifier les émissions de CO2 à l'échelle de la ville et ainsi d’améliorer les inventaires existants. Les mesures de concentration de CO2 et autres gaz peuvent ainsi être utilisées dans une approche dite “descendante” afin de contraindre les inventaires d’émission qui sont traditionnellement construits via une approche dite “ascendante” à partir d’une quantification des activités.Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous avons évalué le potentiel d’une nouvelle technique de surveillance du CO2, référencée sous le nom de sous le nom de GreenLite™ (Green Imaging Tomography Experiment). Le système a été déployé pendant un an dans la ville de Paris. Il permet une mesure en continu de la concentration le long de 30 segments horizontaux, proches de la surface. Il a donc une couverture spatiale beaucoup plus large que l'échantillonnage in situ traditionnel et apporte une information dont la représentativité spatiale est plus cohérente avec celle des modèles de transport atmosphérique à résolution à l'échelle kilométrique utilisés pour l'inversion atmosphérique à l'échelle de la ville.J’ai développé un outil de modélisation complet centré sur le modèle à haute résolution WRF avec un couplage (WRF-Chem), et en utilisant des inventaires d'émissions anthropique de CO2, des estimations des flux par la végétation et des conditions aux limites fournies par une simulation à grande échelle. Ce modèle permet d’interpréter les mesures.Le chapitre 1 est une large introduction au sujet tandis que les chapitres 2-4 sont construits autour de trois articles publiés dans la littérature scientifique.Le chapitre 2 évalue si le modèle WRF à une résolution spatiale de 3 km peut reproduire les champs météorologiques dans la région IdF mieux que ne le fait le modèle Européen CEPMMT à 16 km de résolution. Les comparaisons entre les analyses des deux modèles sont faites avec un focus sur trois variables atmosphériques (température de l'air, vent et hauteur de la couche limite) qui sont les plus pertinentes en ce qui concerne le transport du CO2 atmosphérique dans un environnement urbain. Les résultats ont permis de sélection une version du modèle et une option de nudging qui permet la meilleure adéquation entre les simulations numériques et les observations de terrain, et ces options sont utilisés dans la suite du travail.Le chapitre 3 vise à comprendre les variations temporelles et spatiales des concentrations de CO2 dans Paris et ses environs pendant la période de mesure du système GreenLITE™ (Sep 2015 à dec 2016). Les données permettent de démontrer qu’un schéma de canopée urbaine (BEP) est en bien meilleur accord avec la réalité, par rapport à l'autre (UCM), en particulier pendant l’hiver. Pendant cette période, le mélange vertical est réduit ce qui peut conduire à des accumulations du CO2 dans les basses couches de l’atmosphère, qui sont difficiles à modéliser. Cependant, les mesures GreenLITE™ montrent aussi un bruit important et des indications de biais, ce qui limite leur potentiel d’interprétation. De plus, les inadéquations entre modèles et observations dans ce chapitre soulignent clairement la difficulté de modélisation du CO2 dans les zones urbaines en raison des grandes incertitudes tant dans le transport atmosphérique que dans l'inventaire des émissions.Le chapitre 4 vise à étudier en détail les sources d'erreurs principales qui conduisent aux différences entre mesures et résultats de simulation en ce qui concerne le CO2 atmosphérique au-dessus de Paris. Ces sources d’erreur incluent les hypothèses sur les distributions des émissions anthropiques, le transport atmosphérique en particulier le mélange vertical, les flux de CO2 biogéniques, et les conditions aux limites du domaine de simulationCities play an important role in tackling climate change as they account for more than 70% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In recent years, several efforts have attempted to quantify city-scale CO2 emissions and establish a high spatially and temporally resolved inventory for supporting urban emission mitigation strategies. The so-called "top-down" inverse estimation of CO2 emissions constrained by independent atmospheric observations could serve to evaluate the consistency of traditional "bottom-up" inventories. A novel CO2 monitoring technique, known as the Greenhouse gas Laser Imaging Tomography Experiment (GreenLITE™) trace gas measurement system, was deployed in central Paris for a 1-year monitoring of near-surface atmospheric CO2 concentrations along 30 horizontal chords. This system has a much wider spatial coverage than traditional in situ sampling and was expected to be more consistent with the spatial representativeness of the kilometer-scale resolution atmospheric transport models used for the city-scale atmospheric inversion.The primary objective of this thesis is to assess the potential contribution of this GreenLITE™ system, in addition to two urban and four peri-urban in situ CO2 measurement stations, for a better understanding of the spatiotemporal variations of CO2 concentrations within Paris and its vicinity. For this objective, I have developed a full modeling framework around the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and its coupling with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), using CO2 emission inventories, estimates of the vegetation fluxes and boundary conditions provided by a large-scale simulation.Chapter 1 is a broad introduction to the subject while chapter 2-4 are built around three separate and publishable papers.Chapter 2 aims at evaluating whether the WRF model running at a 3-km horizontal resolution, with its various configurations, can reproduce the meteorological fields over the IdF region better than the 16-km resolution ECMWF global operational forecasts. The comparisons between WRF and ECMWF forecasts with respect to observations are carried out with a focus on three atmospheric variables (air temperature, wind and PBL height). The results of the sensitivity tests of different physics schemes and nudging options obtained in this chapter are used in subsequent research for the selection of appropriate WRF-Chem model setup in support of atmospheric CO2 transport modeling.Chapter 3 aims at understanding the spatiotemporal variations of CO2 concentrations within Paris and its vicinity during the 1-year GreenLITE™ operating period from September 2015 to December 2016. The analyses are based on CO2 data provided by GreenLITE™ together with six in situ stations and the 1 km-resolution WRF-Chem model coupled with two urban canopy schemes (Urban Canopy Model - UCM; Building Effect Parameterization - BEP). The GreenLITE™ data provide clear information that favors BEP over UCM in the description of vertical mixing and CO2 concentrations during the winter. However, there are indications of measurement noise in summer that limit the usefulness of the data. Furthermore, the model-observation mismatches clearly stress the difficulty of CO2 modeling within urban areas due to the large uncertainties both in the atmospheric transport and the emission inventory.Chapter 4 aims at investigating in detail the critical sources of errors that lead to the model-observation mismatches in the atmospheric CO2 modeling over Paris. These sources of misfit include uncertainties in the assumed distribution of anthropogenic emission, errors in the atmospheric transport, in biogenic CO2 fluxes and in CO2 boundary conditions at the edges of the atmospheric transport model domain. The lessons and insights from this chapter provide requirements and recommendations for the assimilation of CO2 measurements into the atmospheric inversion, when aiming at the quantification of CO2 emissions for the Paris region
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Drigeard, Elise. "Microphysique glacée des systèmes convectifs observés dans le cadre de Megha-Tropiques en Afrique de l'Ouest : comparaison des mesures aéroportées avec des radars sol et un modèle numérique." Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 2, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014CLF22531/document.
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La météorologie tropicale est un élément majeur pour le fonctionnement de l’atmosphère et pour le climat terrestre. Le satellite Megha-Tropiques regroupe des instruments de télédétection utilisant des algorithmes de restitution complexes. Cette thèse participe à la mise au point de stratégies de validation de ces algorithmes par l’acquisition d’une meilleure connaissance de la phase glacée des systèmes convectifs de méso-échelle (MCS) tropicaux, en s’appuyant sur la campagne de mesures réalisée à Niamey au Niger à l’été 2010. De nombreux MCS à fort contenu en glace (IWC, Ice Water Content) ont été documentés à la fois par une instrumentation aéroportée, et par des radars au sol. Les informations obtenues grâce aux sondes aéroportées, et l’utilisation d’une loi masse-diamètre permettent de calculer une valeur de réflectivité Zin-situ. Le développement d’une méthode de colocalisation des mesures réalisées par les radars sol sur la trajectoire de l’avion a abouti à la validation du calcul de Zin-situ. La relation entre la réflectivité et l’IWC n’a pas été clairement observée pour le radar-précipitation du MIT. De plus, l’IWC est mieux documenté avec un radar-nuage qu’avec un radar-précipitation car ce dernier est trop sensible aux cristaux de grande taille. Les mesures in-situ s’avèrent donc indispensables pour obtenir l’information microphysique utile à la validation des algorithmes de restitution satellites et elles ne peuvent pas être remplacées par des mesures de réflectivités effectuées depuis le sol. L’utilisation du modèle numérique WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) pourrait également permettre de connaître au mieux les MCS. Pour le cas d’étude analysé dans cette thèse, la modélisation a généré une ligne de grains mais n’a pas reproduit correctement toutes les caractéristiques du MCS réellement observé. Des différences dynamiques et microphysiques sont apparues. L’analyse du champ de réflectivité simulé grâce aux CFAD (Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams) a montré une sous-estimation de la réflectivité par rapport aux observations. L’utilisation du schéma microphysique de Morrison, plus complexe que celui de Thompson initialement employé, n’a pas permis d’améliorer les résultats. Les performances du modèle WRF ne sont pas encore suffisantes pour aider à la validation des algorithmes de restitution satellitesTropical meteorology is a major issue for atmospheric physics and earth’s climate. The Megha-Tropiques satellite combines several teledetection instruments which need complex restitution algorithms. This work contributes to the development of validation’s strategies for these algorithms. This requires a better knowledge of the tropical mesoscale convective systems’ (MCS) ice phase. In this thesis, we use data from the Niamey’s (Niger) campaign, which took place during summer 2010. Numerous MCS with high Ice Water Content (IWC) were analyzed with an airborne instrumentation and ground radars. Reflectivity Zin-situ is calculated using airborne microphysic probes’ information and a mass-diameter relationship. A spatial and temporal interpolation technique is developed to colocalize the aircraft position with ground radar measurements. This method leads to the validation of Zin-situ calculation. The relationship between reflectivity and IWC is not satisfactory for the MIT precipitation radar. Moreover, the cloud radar gives better informations about the IWC than the precipitation radar. Indeed, precipitation radars are too sensitive to large ice crystals. Therefore, in-situ measurements are essential to get microphysic information in order to validate restitution algorithms used by satellites. They can’t be replaced by ground based reflectivity measurements. The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model was used in order to get a better knowledge of MCS. In this work, we analyzed one case study. For this case, WRF generates a typical squall line but it doesn’t correctly reproduce every observed characteristics. Several dynamical and microphysical differences appear between simulation and observations. The simulated reflectivity field is analyzed by CFAD (Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams) and it shows a general underestimated reflectivity compared to the observations. The Thompson microphysic scheme is replaced by the more complex Morrison scheme, but this modification doesn’t improve the results of the simulation. Consequently, the WRF model isn’t yet efficient enough to help with the restitution algorithms’ validation
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Hughes, James. "The study of a mesoscale model applied to the prediction of offshore wind resource." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2014. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/15730.
Full textAbstract:
The Supergen wind research consortium is a group of research centres which undertake research primarily aimed at reducing the cost of offshore wind farming. Research is undertaken to apply the WRF mesoscale NWP model to the field of offshore wind resource assessment to assess its potential as an operational tool. WRF is run in a variety of configurations for a number of locations to determine and optimise a level of performance and assess how accessible that performance might be to an end user. Three studies set out to establish a level of performance at two different sites and improve performance through optimisation of model setup and post processing techniques. WRF was found to simulate wind speed to an appreciable level by reference to similar studies, though performance was found to vary throughout the course of the model runs and depending on the location. An average correlation coefficient of 0.9 was found for the Shell Flats resource assessment at 6-hourly resolution with an RMSE of 1.7ms-1. Performance at Scroby Sands was not at as high a level as that seen for Shell Flats with an average correlation coefficient for wind speed of 0.64 with an RMSE of 2ms-1. A range of variables were simulated by the model in the Shell Flats investigation to test the flexibility of the model output. Wind direction was produced to a moderate level of accuracy at 10-minute resolution while aggregated stability statistics showed the model had a good appreciation of the frequency of cases observed. Areas of uncertainty in model performance were addressed through model optimisation techniques including the generation of two ensembles and observational nudging. Both techniques were found to add value to the model output as well as improving performance. The difference between performance observed at Shell Flats and Scroby Sands shows that while the model clearly has inherent skill it is sensitive to the environment to which it is applied. In order to maximise performance, as large a computing resource as possible is recommended with a concerted effort to optimise model setup with the aim of allowing it to perform to its best ability. There is room for improvement in the application of mesoscale NWP to the field of offshore wind resource assessment but these results confirm an inherent skill in model performance. With the addition of further validation, improvements to model setup on a case by case basis and the application of optimisation techniques, it is anticipated mesoscale NWP can perform to a level which would justify its adoption operationally by the industry. The flexibility which can be offered relating to spatial and temporal coverage as well as the range of variables which can be produced make it an attractive option to developers if performance of a consistently high level can be established.
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Johansson, Sara. "Coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Community Multiscale Air Qualitymodel (CMAQ), and analysing the forecasted ozone and nitrogendioxide concentrations." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-303924.
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Air quality forecasts are of great value since several pollutants in our environment effect both human health, global climate, vegetation, crop yields, animals, materials and acidification of forests and lakes. Air-quality forecasts help to make people aware of the presence and the quantity of pollutants, and give them a chance to protect themselves, their business and the Earth. Many different air-quality models are in daily use all over the world, providing citizens with forecasts of air quality and warnings of unhealthy air quality if recommended highest concentrations are exceeded. This study adapts the WRF meteorological model (Weather research and Forecasting model) to be a driver of the CMAQ air-quality model (models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality model). Forecasts of ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations from this coupled WRF/CMAQ modelling system are tested against observed data during a four-day period in May, 2006. The Lower Fraser Valley study area is a fertile valley surrounded by mountain chains in southwest British Columbia, Canada. The valley stretches from the Pacific coast eastwards towards the Rocky Mountains. This valley hosts more than 2 million people and it is west Canada’s fastest growing region. The Lower Fraser Valley holds a big city, Vancouver, several suburbs, numerous industries and a widespread agricultural production. During the analysed four-day period in May, a synoptic high-pressure built over the region, favoring high concentrations of pollutants as ozone and nitrogen dioxide. The created WRF/CMAQ model forecasted an acceptable magnitude of nitrogen dioxide but the daily variations are not recreated properly by the model. The WRF/CMAQ model forecasts the daily variation of ozone in a satisfying way, but the forecasted concentrations are overestimated by between 20 and 30 ppb throughout the study. Factors that could contribute to the elevated ozone concentrations were investigated, and it was found that the weather forecasting model WRF was not generating fully reliable meteorological values, which in turn hurt the air-quality forecasts. As the WRF model usually is a good weather forecasting model, the short spin-up time for the model could be a probable cause for its poor performance.Prognoser över luftkvaliteten är mycket värdefulla, då flera luftföroreningar i vår närmiljö påverkar människans hälsa, det globala klimatet, vegetation, djur, material och bidrar till försurning av skog och vattendrag. Luftkvalitetsprognoser gör människan mer medveten om närvaron av luftföroreningar och i vilken mängd de finns. De ger människan en chans att vidta skyddsåtgärder för att skydda sig själv, sitt eventuella levebröd, och Jorden. Många olika luftkvalitetsmodeller används idag dagligdags över hela världen och förser invånare med prognoser för luftkvaliteten och varningar om koncentrationerna av föroreningar överstiger rekommenderade värden. I denna studie används väderprognosmodellen WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) för att driva luftkvalitetsmodellen CMAQ (models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality model). Prognoser av ozon- och kvävedioxidhalterna i luften från den kopplade WRF/CMAQ modellen analyseras mot observerade data under en fyra dagars period i maj, 2006. Studieområdet Lower Fraser Valley är en bördig dalgång som är omgiven av bergskedjor i sydvästra British Columbia, Kanada. Dalen sträcker sig från Stilla havskusten och österut mot Klippiga bergen. I denna dalgång bor mer än 2 miljoner människor och det är västra Kanadas snabbast växande region. Lower Fraser Valley rymmer en storstad, Vancouver, flera förorter, många industrier och även stora jordbruksområden. Den fyra dagars period i maj som analyseras karaktäriseras av ett högtrycksbetonat synoptiskt väderläge med lokala variationer, vilka tillsammans är gynnsamma för att uppmäta höga koncentrationer av luftföroreningar som ozon och kvävedioxid. Den skapade WRF/CMAQ modellen prognostiserar godtagbar magnitud hos kvävedioxid men den dagliga variationen återskapas inte av modellen. Modellen prognostiserar den dagliga variationen av ozonkoncentration på ett tillfredsställande sätt, men storleksmässigt ligger koncentrationerna en faktor 20-30 ppb för högt rakt av under hela studien. Kringliggande faktorer som kan påverka koncentrationen ozon studeras närmare och det framkommer att den meteorologiska prognosmodellen WRF inte genererar fullt tillförlitliga värden för en rättvisande luftkvalitetsprognos. Då WRF modellen vanligtvis är en bra prognosmodell kan den korta initialiseringstiden för modellen vara en trolig orsak till dess otillräckliga prestation.
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Carvalho, David João da Silva. "Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/13926.
Full textAbstract:
Doutoramento em FísicaThe high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.
A elevada dependência energética de Portugal face ao exterior em termos de combustíveis fósseis, aliada aos compromissos assumidos pelo País no contexto internacional e á estratégia nacional em termos de política energética bem como às temáticas da sustentabilidade dos recursos e alterações climáticas, inevitavelmente obrigam Portugal á necessidade de investir na sua auto-suficiência energética. A estratégia definida pela União Europeia, sob a forma da Estratégia 20/20/20, define que em 2020 60% do total da electricidade consumida seja proveniente de fontes de energia renováveis. A energia eólica constitui presentemente uma das principais fontes de produção de energia eléctrica em Portugal, produzindo em 2013 cerca de 23% do consumo total nacional de electricidade. A Estratégia Nacional para a Energia 2020 (ENE2020), que visa garantir o cumprimento da Estratégia Europeia 20/20/20, prevê que cerca de metade desta meta de 60% seja fornecida pela eólica. O presente trabalho pretende aplicar e optimizar um modelo numérico de previsão do tempo na simulação e modelação do recurso eólico em Portugal, em zonas offshore e onshore. A optimização do modelo numérico baseou-se na determinação de quais as condições iniciais e de fronteira e opções de parametrizações físicas da camada limite planetária a usar no modelo que proporcionam simulações do fluxo de potência (ou densidade de energia), velocidade e direcção do vento mais próximas de dados medidos in situ. Especificamente para zonas offshore pretende-se também avaliar se o modelo numérico, uma vez optimizado, é capaz de produzir dados de vento e fluxo de potência mais concordantes com dados medidos in situ que dados de vento provenientes de satélites. Neste trabalho ambiciona-se ainda estudar e analisar possíveis impactos que alterações climáticas de origem antropogénica poderão ter no recurso eólico disponível sobre a Europa no futuro. Os resultados deste trabalho revelaram que as reanálises do ECMWF ERA-Interim são aquelas que, entre todas as bases de dados de forçamento de modelos de previsão numérica presentemente disponíveis, permitem simulações do fluxo de potência, velocidade e direcção do vento mais concordantes com medições de vento in situ. Verificou-se também que as parametrizações da camada limite planetária Pleim-Xiu e ACM2 são as que permitem ao modelo usado neste trabalho obter os melhores resultados em termos de simulação do fluxo de potência, velocidade e direcção do vento. Esta optimização do modelo permitiu uma redução significativa dos erros de simulação do fluxo de potência, velocidade e direcção do vento e, para zonas offshore, a obtenção de simulações do fluxo de potência, velocidade e direcção do vento mais concordantes com medições de vento in situ do que dados provenientes de satélites, resultado este de grande valor e interesse. Este trabalho revela ainda que alterações climáticas de origem antropogénica poderão produzir impactos negativos no recurso eólico futuro na Europa, devido às tendências detectadas para uma futura diminuição das velocidades do vento especialmente na segunda metade do presente século e sob cenários de forte forçamento radiativo.
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Alizadeh, Choobari Omid. "Modelling the spatial distribution, direct radiative forcing and impact of mineral dust on boundary layer dynamics." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/7700.
Full textAbstract:
Mineral dust aerosols, the tiny soil particles in the atmosphere, play a key role in the atmospheric radiation budget through their radiative and cloud condensation nuclei effects. It is therefore important to evaluate the radiative forcing of mineral dust and subsequent changes in atmospheric dynamics. The Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) regional model with the integrated dust modules and available observations have been used to investigate the three-dimensional distribution of mineral dust over Australia. Additionally, the WRF/Chem model was used to estimate the direct radiative forcing by mineral dust over Australia. Particular emphasize has been given to direct
radiative feedback effect of mineral dust on boundary layer dynamics. Two dust emission schemes embedded within the WRF/Chem model have been utilized in this study: the dust transport (DUSTRAN) and the Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) schemes. The refractive index of mineral dust depends on the mineralogy, size and composition of dust over a given region. The refractive index of mineral dust for shortwave radiation was considered to be wavelength independent and set based on previous mineralogical studies over North Africa and Australia. However, the refractive index of mineral dust for longwave radiation was considered to be wavelength dependent and to vary for 16 longwave spectral bands. Model results were compared with observations to validate the performance of the model, including satellite datasets
from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), as well as ground-based measurements obtained from air quality monitoring sites over Australia. The major results can be summarized as follows: (1) Lake Eyre Basin
is the most important source of dust in Australia, with a peak activity identified to be during austral spring and summer, and dust emission within the basin is often associated with the passage of dry cold fronts; (2) Mineral dust from Lake Eyre Basin can be transported long distances to southeastern Australia in association with eastward propagating frontal
systems, reaching as far as New Zealand and beyond, and to northern tropical Australia by postfrontal southerly winds, and subsequently towards northwestern Australia and the Indian Ocean by southeasterly trade winds; (3) Australian dust plumes are mainly transported in the lower atmosphere, although variation of boundary layer depth during the passage of cold frontal systems, as well as ascending motion at the leading edge of these
systems and descending motion where postfrontal anticyclonic circulation is dominant contribute to the vertical extent of mineral dust aerosols; (4) the shortwave direct radiative effect of mineral dust results in cooling of the atmosphere from the surface to near the boundary layer top, but warming of the boundary layer top and lower free atmosphere; (5)
changes in the vertical profile of temperature result in an overall decrease of wind speed in the lower boundary layer and an increase within the upper boundary layer and lower free atmosphere; (6) the longwave warming effect of mineral dust partly offsets its shortwave cooling effect at the surface. This compensation is significantly larger over and immediately downwind of dust source regions where coarse particles are more abundant, as they have stronger interaction with longwave radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface; (7) both shortwave and longwave radiative forcing by mineral dust was found to have a diurnal variation in response to changes in solar zenith angle and in the intensity of longwave
radiation, respectively; (8) the absorptive nature of dust was shown to be associated with the shortwave heating of the atmosphere; (9) on the other hand, longwave cooling of the atmosphere was identified because absorption of longwave radiation by dust is less than its emission to the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA).
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Sohrabinia, Mohammad. "Estimation of the near-surface air temperature and soil moisture from satellites and numerical modelling in New Zealand." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/8707.
Full textAbstract:
Satellite observations provide information on land surface processes over a large spatial extent with a frequency dependent on the satellite revisit time. These observations are not subject to the spatial limitations of the traditional point measurements and are usually collected in a global scale. With a reasonable spatial resolution and temporal frequency, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is one of these satellite sensors which enables the study of land-atmospheric interactions and estimation of climate variables for over a decade from remotely sensed data.
This research investigated the potential of remotely sensed land surface temperature
(LST) data from MODIS for air temperature (Ta) and soil moisture (SM) estimation in New Zealand and how the satellite derived parameters relate to the numerical model simulations and the in-situ ground measurements. Additionally, passive microwave SM product from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) was applied in this research.
As the first step, the MODIS LST product was validated using ground measurements at two test-sites as reference. Quality of the MODIS LST product was compared with the numerical simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results from the first validation site, which was located in the alpine areas of the South Island, showed that the MODIS LST has less agreement with the in-situ measurements than the WRF model simulations. It turned out that the MODIS LST is subject to sources of error, such as the effects of topography and variability in atmospheric effects over alpine areas and needs a careful pre-processing for cloud effects and outliers. On the other hand, results from the second validation site, which was located on the flat lands of the Canterbury Plains, showed significantly higher agreement with the ground truth data. Therefore, ground measurements at this site were used as the main reference data for the accuracy assessment of Ta and SM estimates.
Using the MODIS LST product, Ta was estimated over a period of 10 years at several sites across New Zealand. The main question in this part of the thesis was whether to use LST series from a single MODIS pixel or the series of a spatially averaged value from multiple pixels for Ta estimation. It was found that the LST series from a single pixel can be used to model Ta with an accuracy of about ±1 ºC. The modelled
Ta in this way showed r ≈ 0.80 correlation with the in-situ measurements. The Ta estimation accuracy improved to about ±0.5 ºC and the correlation to r ≈ 0.85 when LST series from spatially averaged values over a window of 9x9 to 25x25 pixels were applied. It was discussed that these improvements are due to noise reduction in the spatially averaged LST series. By comparison of LST diurnal trends from MODIS with Ta diurnal trends from hourly measurements in a weather station, it was shown that the MODIS LST has a better agreement with Ta measurements at certain times of the day with changes over day and night.
After estimation of Ta, the MODIS LST was applied to derive the near-surface SM using two Apparent Thermal Inertia (ATI) functions. The objective was to find out if more daily LST observations can provide a better SM derivation. It was also aimed to identify the potential of a land-atmospheric coupled model for filling the gaps in derived SM, which were due to cloud cover. The in-situ SM measurements and rainfall data from six stations were used for validation of SM derived from the two ATI functions and simulated by the WRF model. It was shown that the ATI function based on four LST observations has a better ability to derive SM temporal profiles and is better able to detect rainfall effects.
Finally, the MODIS LST was applied for spatial and temporal adjustment of the near-surface SM product from AMSR-E passive microwave observations over the South Island of New Zealand. It was shown that the adjustment technique improves AMSR-E seasonal trends and leads to a better matching with rainfall events. Additionally, a clear seasonal variability was observed in the adjusted AMSR-E SM in the spatial domain.
Findings of this thesis showed that the satellite observed LST has the potential for the estimation of the land surface variables, such as the near-surface Ta and SM. This potential is greatly important on remote and alpine areas where regular measurements from weather stations are not often available. According to the results from the first validation site, however, the MODIS LST needs a careful pre-processing on those areas. The concluding chapter included a discussion of the limitations of remotely sensed data due to cloud cover, dense vegetation and rugged topography. It was concluded that the satellite observed LST has the potential for SM and Ta estimations in New Zealand. It was also found that a land-atmospheric model (such as the WRF coupled with the
Noah and surface model) can be applied for filling the gaps due to cloud cover in
remotely sensed variables.
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Wiston, Modise. "Regional modelling of air quality and aerosol-interactions over southern Africa : impact of aerosols and regional-scale meteorology." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/regional-modelling-of-air-quality-and-aerosolinteractions-over-southern-africa-impact-of-aerosols-and-regionalscale-meteorology(50819acb-590e-4e18-8552-038ec1f2ab78).html.
Full textAbstract:
Atmospheric trace components play a critical role in the earth–atmosphere system through their interaction and perturbation to global atmospheric chemistry. They perturb the climate through scattering and absorbing of solar radiation (direct effects), thereby impacting on the heat energy balance of the atmosphere, and alter cloud microphysical properties affecting cloud formation, cloud lifetime and precipitation formation (indirect effects). These trace components can also have adverse effects on human health, visibility and air quality (AQ) composition, including various feedback processes on the state of the atmosphere. As well as their direct and indirect effects, aerosols are important for cloud formation. They serve as cloud condensation and ice nuclei (CCN and IN) during cloud droplet and ice crystal formations. Although many connections between clouds and aerosol effects have been established in cloud physics and climate modelling, aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI) is still one of the areas of large uncertainties in modern climate and weather projections. Different models have been developed placing much emphasis on ACIs, to have robust and more consistent description processes within the meteorological and chemical variables to account for ACIs and feedback processes. Because pollutant distributions are controlled by a specific meteorology that promotes residence times and vertical mixing in the atmosphere, reliable chemical composition measurements are required to understand the changes occurring in the earth–atmosphere system. Also, because atmospheric pollution is a combination of both natural and man-made (anthropogenic) sources, to direct controlled and/or mitigation procedures efficiently, contributions of different sources need to be considered. Occasionally these are explored from a particular region or global environment, depending on a specific area of interest. A fully coupled online meteorology–chemistry model framework (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate atmospheric ACIs over southern Africa –a region characterized by a strong and intense seasonal biomass burning (BB) cycle. The large transport of aerosol plumes originating from the seasonal burning from agriculture, land-use management and various activities give rise to a unique situation warranting special scrutiny. Simulations are conducted for the 2008 dry season BB episode, implementing a chemical dataset from various emission sources (anthropogenic, BB, biogenic, dust and sea salt) with the meteorological conditions. A base line (CNTRL) simulation was conducted with all emission sources from 26 August to 10 September 2008. To probe the contribution of BB on the regional pollution and influence on ACIs, a sensitivity (TEST) simulation was conducted without BB emissions and compared to the base line. The impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosol particles is studied and quantified for the two simulations, focusing on aerosol concentration and cloud responses under different model resolutions. A statistical analysis of pollutant concentration of major regulated species and cloud variables is conducted and the percentage difference used to assess the contribution due to BB emissions. Results confirm the high variability of spatial and temporal patterns of chemical species, with the greatest discrepancies occurring in the tropical forests whereas the subtropics show more urban/industrial related emissions. Whilst CO and O3 show statistically significant increases over a number of cities/towns, the trend and spatial variability is much less uniform with NO2 and PM in most urban and populous cities. Statistical analysis of major chemical pollutants was mainly influenced by BB emissions. O3, NOx, CO and PM increase by 24%, 76%, 51%, 46% and 41% over the main source regions, whereas in the less affected regions concentrations increased by 5%, 5%, 5%, 3% and 2% when BB emissions are included. This study sheds new light on the response of cloud processes to changing aerosol concentrations and different model resolutions. In the parameterised case (dx = 20 km), clouds become more cellular, correlated with high supersaturations, whereas in the resolved case (dx = 4 km), they become more faint with relatively lower supersaturations. Aerosol effects on cloud properties were further studied and statistical analysis conducted on CCN, cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), supersaturation and aerosol optical depth (AOD) at two different grid spacings. Most clouds occur to the west of the domain coincident with increase in aerosol concentration and AOD, while single scattering albedo (SSA) decreases. A considerable cloud ‘burn-off’ occurs in tropical west Africa, where aerosols can also be lofted up to 500-hPa level when BB emissions are included in the simulation. Due to BB, absorbing aerosol increased by 76% and 23% over tropical west and subtropical southeast, while tropical east shows no change. The study shows that tropical central Africa is characterized by an increased build-up in biomass burning aerosols (BBAs), forming a regional haze with high AOD; this becomes stronger near active burning areas with a significant proportion occurring to the west. AOD enhancement increases up to 38%, 31% and 11% in the west, east and south respectively. Although CDNC increased in areas with high aerosol concentration, supersaturation decreases (in the small domains) since increase in aerosol number concentration decreases maximum supersaturation Smax. Changes in absorbed radiation increased by +56 Wm-2, +23 Wm-2 and +14 Wm-2 in the west, east and southeast. To further evaluate the model sensitivity and its skill, an analysis was conducted by comparing the model performance with measurement data. Simulated AOD, surface concentrations of CO and O3, ozonesondes and liquid water path (LWP) were compared with measured data from MODIS satellite, SAFARI2000 field study and Cape Point WMO. The model shows a good skill in capturing and reproducing the trends as that measured. However, a severe lack of measurement data over southern Africa makes it more difficult to effectively evaluate WRF-Chem over southern Africa. There is a need for increased availability of measurements to adequately compare with models. This study is one of the first WRF-Chem studies conducted over southern Africa to simulate the weather and pollution interaction. The novelty of the present study is the combined analysis of ACI sensitivity to aerosol loading and cloud response in a regime-based approach. The study concludes with a brief discusssion of future directions for work on AQ and modelling interactions between pollution and weather over southern Africa.
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Mollmann, Junior Ricardo Antonio. "Estudo numérico do impacto da representação do terreno nas concentrações de SO2 na região de Candiota - RS." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/180537.
Full textAbstract:
O objetivo deste trabalho foi o analisar o impacto da resolução dos conjuntos de dados topográficos nas simulações das concentrações de dióxido de enxofre (SO2) emitido por uma fonte localizada no Sul do Brasil. Para isso foram realizadas duas simulações aplicando o modelo regional Weather Research and Forecasting acoplado com a química (WRF/Chem), configurado com duas representações do terreno de diferentes resoluções espaciais. Foram utilizados os dados padrão do modelo com melhor resolução, Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO), com aproximadamente 1 km, e inserido no bancos de dados do modelo as informações de terreno em alta-resolução do Radar Shuttle Topography Mission (SRTM) (30 metros). Para as emissões antrópicas do modelo foi elaborado um programa capaz inserir os volumes do poluente SO2 de forma horária expelidos pela chaminé, de acordo com as taxas de emissão medidos diretamente na fonte. O programa representou a emissão do poluente no ponto de grade correspondente a localização e a altura acima da superfície da chaminé da fonte. As simulações foram configuradas com os seguintes esquemas de parametrização: para microfísica de nuvens foi utilizado o Goddard Cumulus Ensemble; os esquemas de radiação de onda longa e curta foram o Goddard e o Rapid Radiative Transfer Model para modelos de circulação geral da atmosfera (MCGA); para a parametrização de cumulus o esquema utilizado foi o Grell 3D Ensemble Scheme; e para os esquemas de camada superficial e camada limite planetária foram utilizados os da teoria da similaridade do Fifth-Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) e o Yonsey University, respectivamente. A escolha desta combinação de esquemas foi definida a partir de um estudo inicial da sensibilidade do modelo à mudança das parametrizações. Os resultados dos experimentos numéricos alterando a topografia foram validados a partir dos dados de monitoramento das estações meteorológica e da qualidade do ar pertencentes à empresa responsável pelo empreendimento associado à fonte. Foi observado que as simulações com os dados SRTM expressaram o terreno da região de estudo mais próximo à realidade, representando o aspecto heterogêneo do relevo, ressaltando os picos e os vales. Os resultados das validações meteorológicas utilizando os dados topográficos indicaram melhoras nas simulações das variáveis meteorológicas: temperatura, umidade relativa, velocidade do vento e precipitação. Os experimentos com os dados topográficos GTOPO e SRTM no modelo WRF/Chem, configurado com as emissões horárias da fonte de Candiota, reproduziram o comportamento dos ventos para transporte de SO2 até as estações de monitoramento conforme os dados observados. Porém foram identificados padrões diferentes na representação das concentrações do poluente entre as duas simulações do modelo, associados aos escoamentos dos ventos representados pelos experimentos. A resolução da topografia afetou na simulação de SO2 devido ao aumento da forçante superficial induzida pelo terreno. Este aumento na forçante, influenciou a advecção da pluma de SO2, resultando em diferentes padrões das concentrações de SO2 no ponto de grade correspondente às estações de monitoramento. Contudo, os resultados das simulações das concentrações de SO2, tanto de forma horária quanto na abordagem das médias diárias, não indicaram uma relação linear entre a utilização de dados em alta resolução e a melhora na representação do SO2 pelo modelo WRF/Chem.The objective of this work was to analyze the impact of the higher resolution topographic data sets in the simulations of the Sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations emitted by a source located Southern Brazil. Two simulations were performed applying the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry – WRF/Chem, configured with two representations of the terrain with different spatial resolutions. The standard data of the model with the best resolution (approximately 1 km), Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation (GTOPO), and was inserted in the model databases the high-resolution (30 meters) terrain information of the Radar Shuttle Topography Mission (SRTM). For the anthropic emissions of the model, a program was developed capable of inserting the hourly SO2 pollutant volumes expelled by the chimney, according to the emission rates measured directly at the source. The program inserted these emissions into the grid point corresponding to the location and height above the surface of the emission source. The simulations were configured with the following parameterization schemes: for cloud microphysics Goddard Cumulus Ensemble; for the long and short wave radiation treatment it was used the Goddard and the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation models; for the cumulus parameterization the scheme it was used the Grell 3D Ensemble Scheme; and for the surface layer and planetary boundary layer schemes, the similarity theory of the Fifth-Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Yonsey University, respectively. The choice of this combination of schemes was defined from an initial study of the sensitivity of the model to the change of parametrizations. The results of the numerical experiments altering the topography were validated from the monitoring data of the meteorological stations and the air quality belonging to the company responsible for the enterprise associated to the source. It was observed that the simulations with the SRTM data expressed the terrain of the region of study closest to reality, representing the heterogeneous aspect of the terrain, highlighting the peaks and valleys. The results of the meteorological validations using the new topographic data indicated an improvement in the simulations of the meteorological variables: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation. The experiments with the GTOPO and SRTM topographic data in WRF/Chem model, configured with the hourly emissions of the Candiota source, reproduced the winds behavior that transported the SO2 to the monitoring stations according to the observed data. However, different patterns were identified in the pollutant concentrations between the two simulations of the model, associated to the wind flows represented by the experiments. The topography resolution affected in the simulation of SO2 due to the increase of the surface forcing induced by the terrain. This increase in the forcing influenced the advection of the SO2 plume, resulting in different patterns of SO2 concentrations at the grid point corresponding to the monitoring stations. However, the results of simulations of SO2 concentrations, both hourly and in the approach of daily averages, did not indicate a linear relationship between the use of high resolution data and the improvement in the representation of SO2 by WRF/Chem model.
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Shareef, Ali. "Numerical Analysis of Convective Storm Development over Maldives." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/3026.
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In the Asian and other monsoon regions of the world most of the severe weather observed is local or mesoscale in nature. Forecasting convective storms or mesoscale systems in the monsoon regions, especially in the tropics, has always been a challenging task to operational meteorologists. Maldives Islands, being situated in the tropical Indian Ocean, are affected by monsoon depressions and tropical cyclones. Thunderstorms and the passage of squall lines are well known sources of heavy rainfall. However, due to the lack of professional people and necessary equipment the weather systems around these islands are seldom studied. Therefore the aim of this thesis is to investigate whether the small islands can create sufficient perturbations in the mesoscale environment to result in the development of convective systems. In this regard, two numerical models, Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF version 2.2.1) and Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS version 6.0) were used in this study. Two experiments were performed using the WRF model. In the first experiment, a case study was investigated where the selected day experienced heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. In the second experiment, the same case study was used but with the topographical and surface properties removed in order to investigate the influence of the island in modifying the mesoscale environment. All the experiments were initialized using the re-analysis data from NECP. WRF was able to predict the large scale synoptic features with reasonable accuracy when compared to the observations. Development of the boundary layer and the downstream advection of the temperature anomaly generated by the island were well represented. However, the magnitude of the effects was shown to be weak, probably due to the influence of large scale synoptic features. Even though the model was able to predict the large scale features and some of the mesoscale features, it did not predict any storm development and underestimated the precipitation. Therefore, it was decided to idealize the storm development using the RAMS model. RAMS model was used in a two-dimensional framework. The model was initialized horizontally homogenous using a single sounding and six simulations were performed. The simulation results clearly depicted that the small island can generate its own circulation and influence the mesoscale environment. The daytime heating of the island and the downstream advection of the temperature anomaly in a moist unstable atmosphere could trigger a thunderstorm later in the day. The storm becomes mature approximately 40-80 km offshore. This also suggests that triggering of a storm on one side of an atoll could influence the islands on the downstream side. Sensitivity of storm development to the thermodynamics showed that even with an unstable atmosphere, enough moisture in the lower and mid-troposphere is needed to trigger the storm. Sensitivity to the change of SST showed that convective development was suppressed with a drop of 1 oC. However, this needs further investigation. Assessment of sensitivity to the size of the island showed that the time of triggering of the storm was later and the scale of influence was smaller with a smaller island.
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Peters, Björn. "Modeling the MHC-I pathway." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät I, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/14987.
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Das Immunsystems muss gesunde Zellen von infizierten und Krebszellen unterscheiden können, um letztere selektiv zu bekämpfen. Dies ist die Aufgabe der CTL-Zellen, die dazu auf der Zelloberfläche präsentierte Peptide die aus intrazellulären Proteinen der jeweiligen Zelle stammen untersuchen. Diese präsentierten Peptide (Epitope) werden durch den MHC-I Antigenpräsentationsweg hergestellt. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es Methoden zu entwickeln die Epitope aus der großen Zahl prinzipiell in Proteinen enthaltener Peptide heraussuchen können. Dazu wird die Selektivität dreier wichtiger Komponenten des Präsentationsweges untersucht: Die Herstellung der Peptide durch das Proteasom, der Transport in das ER durch TAP, und das Binden von Peptiden an leere MHC-I Moleküle. Zur sequenzbasierten Vorhersage der Bindung von Peptiden an MHC-I Moleküle wurde ein neuer Algorithmus entwickelt. Dieser kombiniert eine Matrix, welche die individuellen Beiträge einzelner Reste zur Bindung beschreibt, mit Paarkoeffizienten, die Wechselwirkungen zwischen verschiedenen Positionen im Peptid beschreiben. Dieser Ansatz macht bessere Vorhersagen als bisher publizierte Methoden, und quantifiziert erstmals den Einfluss von Wechselwirkungen innerhalb eines Peptids auf die Bindung. Die Verteilung der Werte der Paarkoeffizienten zeigt, dass sich Wechselwirkungen nicht auf benachbarte Aminosäuren beschränken. Im Vergleich zu den Matrixeinträgen sind die Werte der Paarkoeffizienten klein, was erklärt warum Vorhersagen die Wechselwirkungen komplett vernachlässigen trotzdem gut sein können. Erstmals wurde ein Algorithmus zur Vorhersage der TAP-Transportseffizienz von Peptiden beliebiger Länge entwickelt. Das ist deshalb wichtig, da viele MHC-I Epitope als N-terminal verlängerte Prekursoren in das ER transportiert werden. Für die Vorhersage der Transportfähigkeit eines potentiellen Epitopes wird deshalb über die Transporteffiziens des Epitopes selbst und seiner Prekursoren gemittelt. Mit Hilfe dieser Definition von Transportfähigkeit wird gezeigt, dass TAP einen starken selektiven Einfluss auf die Auswahl von MHC-I Epitopen hat. Indem man Peptide die als 'nicht-transportierbar' vorhergesagt werden als mögliche Epitope ausschließt, kann man die ohnehin schon hohe Qualität von MHC-I Bindungsvorhersagen weiter steigern. So eine zweistufige Vorhersage scheitert, wenn man statt des TAP Transports die Vorhersage der Generierbarkeit eines Epitopes durch das Proteasom als Filter verwenden möchte. Dieses schlechte Abschneiden der proteasomalen Schnittvorhersagen wird auf eine mangelhafte experimentelle Datenbasis zurückgeführt, da proteasomale Schnittraten schwieriger zu messen und interpretieren sind als die Affinitätsdaten für TAP und MHC-I. Um die experimentelle Datenbasis in Zukunft verbessern zu können, wurde ein neues experimentelles Protokoll entwickelt und an einer Reihe von Experimenten getestet. Dabei werden zwei Probleme behandelt: (1) Durch die Verwendung von Massenbilanzen werden MS-Signale in quantifizierte Peptidmengen umgerechnet. (2) Durch das erste kinetische Modell des Proteasomes das die Entstehung und den Abbau von Peptiden während eines Verdaus zufrieden stellend beschreiben kann, können aus den Verdaudaten Schnittraten bestimmt werden.A major task of the immune system is to identify cells that have been infected by a virus or that have mutated, and discriminate them from healthy cells. This duty is assigned to cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTL), which scan epitopes presented to them on cell surfaces derived from intracellular proteins through the MHC-I antigen processing pathway. The goal of this work is to provide computational methods that allow to predict which epitopes get presented from the large pool of peptide candidates contained in intracellular proteins. This is achieved by examining the selective influence of three major steps in the pathway: peptide generation by the proteasome, peptide transport into the ER by TAP, and binding of peptides to MHC-I molecules. For peptide binding to MHC-I, a new algorithm is developed that combines a matrix-based method describing the contribution of individual residues to binding with pair coefficients describing pair-wise interactions between positions in a peptide. This approach outperforms several previously published prediction methods, and for the first time quantifies the impact of interactions in a peptide. The distribution of the pair coefficient values shows that interactions are not limited to amino acids in direct contact, but can also play a role over longer distances. Compared to the matrix entries, the pair-coefficients are rather small, explaining why methods completely ignoring interactions can nevertheless make good predictions. Next, a novel algorithm is developed to predict the TAP affinities of peptides of any length. Longer peptides are important because several MHC-I epitopes are generated by N-terminal trimming of precursor peptides transported into the ER by TAP. As the true in vivo precursors of an epitope are not known, a generalized TAP score is established which averages across the scores of all precursors up to a certain length. The ability of this TAP score to discriminate between epitopes and random peptides shows that the influence of TAP is a consistent, strong pressure on the selection of MHC-I epitopes. Using predicted TAP transport efficiencies as a filter prior to the prediction of MHC-I binding affinities, it is possible to further improve the already very high classification accuracy achieved using MHC-I affinity predictions alone. Such a 2-step prediction protocol failed when predictions of C-terminal proteasomal cleavages were combined with MHC-I affinity predictions. This disappointing result is thought to be caused by the lack of a sufficiently large set of quantitative and consistent experimental data on proteasomal cleavage rates, which are more difficult to measure and interpret than the affinity assays used to characterize peptide binding to TAP and MHC-I. Therefore, a new protocol for the evaluation of proteasomal digests is developed, which is applied to a series of experiments. This novel protocol addresses two problems: (1) Using mass-balance equations, a method is developed to quantify peptide amounts from MS-signals. (2) By introducing the first kinetic model of the 20S proteasome capable of providing a satisfactory quantitative description of the whole time course of product formation, cleavage probabilities can be extracted reliably from proteasomal in vitro digests.
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St-Louis, Nicole, Patrick Tremblay, and Richard Ignace. "Polarization Light Curve Modeling of Corotating Interaction Regions in the Wind of the Wolf-Rayet Star Wr 6." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2018. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/2690.
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The intriguing WN4b star WR 6 has been known to display epoch-dependent spectroscopic, photometric and polarimetric variability for several decades. In this paper, we set out to verify if a simplified analytical model in which corotating interaction regions (CIRs) threading an otherwise spherical wind is able to reproduce the many broad-band continuum light curves from the literature with a reasonable set of parameters. We modified the optically thin model developed by Ignace, St-Louis & Proulx-Giraldeau to approximately account for multiple scattering and used it to fit 13 separate data sets of this star. By including two CIRs in the wind, we obtained reasonable fits for all data sets with coherent values for the inclination of the rotation axis (i0 = 166°) and for its orientation in the plane of the sky, although in the latter case we obtained two equally acceptable values (ψ = 63° and 152°) from the polarimetry. Additional line profile variation simulations using the Sobolev approximation for the line transfer allowed us to eliminate the ψ = 152° solution. With the adopted configuration (i0 = 166° and ψ = 63°), we were able to reproduce all data sets relatively well with two CIRs located near the stellar equator and always separated by ∼90° in longitude. The epoch dependence comes from the fact that these CIRs migrate along the surface of the star. Density contrasts smaller than a factor of 2 and large opening angles for the CIR (β⪆35∘) were found to best reproduce the type of spectroscopic variability reported in the literature.
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Naeem, Usra. "Estimating dead space ventilation : a computational modelling approach towards evaluation of clinical estimates of dead space fraction in critically ill patients." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2018. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/51774/.
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Dead space is the part of tidal volume that does not participate in gas exchange and represents wasted ventilation. It is often increased in pulmonary diseases. Quantification of dead space by the original Bohr’s equation requires measuring mean alveolar pressure of CO2 (PACO2) and mixed expired partial pressure of CO2 (PĒCO2). Because of the difficulties and technical issues related with measuring PACO2 and PĒCO2, alternative methods have been proposed for the estimation of dead space. This thesis attempts to explore the performance of some methods proposed for the estimation of dead space to tidal volume ratio (VD/VT) in different pulmonary configurations and clinical scenarios. In the first study, we compared the performance of 5 different methods for the estimation VD/VT with the gold standard method in multiple ventilation/perfusion (V/Q) relationships. Six pulmonary configurations all with same alveolar dead space fraction of 0.25, but with different specific pattern of V/Q distribution were created within the Nottingham Physiology Simulator (NPS). Next, variations in the methods of estimating VD/VT upon varying 4 physiological factors were analysed. We concluded that the estimation of alveolar dead space ratio by 5 methods of estimating VD/VT is influenced by pattern of V/Q distribution and alterations in the relevant physiological factors. In the second study, we further analysed performance of 5 methods for estimating dead space ratio in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Nineteen ARDS subjects were created within the NPS and alveolar dead space fraction was measured by the gold standard method. Then, dead space fraction was determined by 5 different methods for estimating dead space fraction. We found that the estimates of dead space fraction measure different than the conventional equation in ARDS. In the third study, we compared efficacy of three lung recruitment maneuvers (RMs) in patients with ARDS. Six virtual ARDS patients were created and changes in dead space fraction, (Pa-E’CO2)/PaCO2 and other parameters were observed following the RMs. The results of this study showed that changes in (Pa-E’CO2)/PaCO2 closely relate with changes in VD/VT. These findings suggest that in clinical settings where it is not possible to measure dead space fraction, a simple estimate of VD/VT may be used to monitor the efficacy of RMs and titration of positive end-expiratory pressure. Simplified approaches for the estimation of dead space fraction may allow widespread use of this important physiological variable for diagnostic and prognostic purposes in critical care settings.
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Gerber, Susanne. "In silico modeling of cation homeostasis in Saccharomyces cerevisiae." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät I, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16384.
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Die toxische Wirkung von Kationen ist verantwortlich für eine Reihe biologischer und pathologischer Erscheinungen. Zu den übergreifenden Zielen des Gesamtvorhabens wurden als wissenschaftliche Arbeiten i) die Analyse, graphische Darstellung und darauf basierende Gewichtung spezifischer genomischer Promotor-Regionen, ii) die Verarbeitung, Auswertung und genomweite Analyse von Mikro-Array Experimenten über die Auswirkung verschiedener Schwermetalle auf S. cerevisiae, iii) Mitarbeit an einer Simulations-Umgebung mit Modulen zur Digitalisierung, Präsentation, Analyse und mathematischer Modellierung der räumlichen Verteilung biologisch relevanter Moleküle sowie iv) ein Ansatz zur Modellierung der Kationen-Homöostase unter Verwendung der Theorie der Nichtgleichgewichts Thermodynamik beigetragen. Im Vordergrund der bioinformatorischen Arbeiten stand dabei der iterative Prozess, in dem verfügbare experimentelle Ergebnisse in aussagefähige Modelle oder Anwendungen übertragen wurden und die Resultate der Modellierung oder Vorhersage wiederum in neue entsprechende Experimente umgesetzt wurden. Die Anwendungsumgebung zur Promotoranalyse sowie die Simulationsumgebung zur räumlichen Verteilung biologisch relevanter Moleküle wie zum Beispiel markierte Signalmoleküle wurde bereits veröffentlicht und erfolgreich eingesetzt. Die Ergebnisse der genomweiten Analyse liefern Erkenntnisse über die individuellen Mechanismen und Strategien der Hefe auf verschiedene Metallionen in toxischer Konzentration zu reagieren. Der theoretische biophysikalisch-thermodynamische Ansatz liefert ein fundamentales Modell der Kationen-Homöostase der zahlenmäßig bedeutendsten Kationen: Kalium, Natrium und Protonen. Das Modell wurde an experimentellen Daten getest und konnte diese reproduzieren. Entsprechende Perspektiven für die Weiterentwicklung des Modells werden diskutiert.Cationic toxicity is relevant for a number of qualitatively different biological and medical phenomena such as cationic surfactants, salt and heavy metal stress in plants and a number of pathological conditions which share similar critical metabolic processes (i.e. protein aggregation and oxidative stress). In line with the overall project goals the scientific work contributed to i) the analysis, graphical presentation and the respective assessment of specific genomic promoter-regions, ii) the conversion, evaluation and genome wide analysis of micro-array experiments on the effects of exposition of S. cerevisiae to heavy metals, iii) a simulation environment comprising modules for digitalization, presentation, analysis and mathematical modeling of the spatio-temporal distribution of biologically relevant molecules, and iv) a cation homeostasis modeling approach based on the non-linear thermodynamics theory. The bioinformatical work focused on an iterative process in which available experimental results were transferred into meaningful models or applications and results of modeling or prediction into corresponding new experimental designs. The software for the promoter-analysis and the simulation environment for integration of spatio-temporal distribution of biologically relevant molecules like labeled signal molecules have already been published and successfully implemented.The results of the genome-wide analysis - based on experiments of a project partner - provide insights in the individual mechanisms and strategies of the yeast cell upon exposition to various (heavy) metals in toxic concentrations. The theoretical biophysical-thermodynamic approach provides a fundamental model of cation homeostasis in S.cerevisiae of the major cations: potassium, sodium and protons. The model - confronted with experimental data - is capable to reproduce the observed uptake rates to a reasonable degree. Perspectives for further development of the model are discussed.
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Boulard, Damien. "Capacité d'une chaine de modélisation hydroclimatique haute résolution à simuler des indices de déficit hydrique : application aux douglasaies et hêtraies de Bourgogne." Thesis, Dijon, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016DIJOL002/document.
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Durant l’épisode de canicule-sécheresse de 2003, les peuplements de douglas et de hêtres en Bourgogne ont été lourdement affectés, présentant des symptômes de dépérissement et de surmortalité. Cet épisode semble être la première occurrence d’aléas climatiques attendus dans un futur proche et remet en question leur pérennité en Bourgogne puisque leur vulnérabilité au climat est attribuable à l'amplitude et au cumul des contraintes hydriques exercées durant leur cycle de végétation. Dans le contexte du changement climatique et en réponses aux demandes des gestionnaires forestiers qui s’appuient partiellement sur une cartographie de l’évolution des contraintes climatiques jusqu’à la fin de ce siècle, ce travail explore la capacité d’une chaîne de modélisation hydroclimatique haute résolution couplant le modèle de climat régional WRF alimenté par les réanalyses ERA-Interim au modèle de bilan hydrique Biljou© ˆ simuler des indices de déficit hydrique pour ces deux essences. La première partie de ce travail propose une analyse de la capacité du modèle WRF à simuler chacune des variables atmosphériques de surface qui sont utilisées en entrée du modèle du bilan hydrique. L’analyse de la capacité du modèle à simuler ces variables repose (i) sur une approche comparative directe entre les données simulées par WRF et les observations enregistrées par le réseau de stations Météo-France et les réanalyses SAFRAN à l’échelle de la région, de la station, et du peuplement forestier, (ii) sur une approche indirecte utilisant l’évapotranspiration potentielle (ETP) et la relation entre les indices de croissance radiale et les indices de déficit hydrique calculés par le modèle d’impact pour les deux essences. Les résultats montrent une amélioration significative des données ERA-Interim par le modèle WRF pour chacune des variables ainsi qu’une capacité certaine à les spatialiser à haute résolution. Toutefois, la bonne reproduction de l’ETP par WRF, combinée à la faible corrélation entre la moyenne annuelle des indices de déficit hydrique estimés avec les données WRF et la moyenne annuelle des indices de croissance radiale montrent que les difficultés de WRF à simuler le déficit hydrique sont principalement imputables à ses biais de précipitations. La seconde partie propose l’application d’une post-correction statistique aux données de précipitations WRF. Bien que cette méthode améliore significativement la distribution spatiale des précipitations, leurs variabilités saisonnière et interannuelle et surtout les cumuls précipités, les données post-corrigées ne permettent pas de reproduire un indice de déficit hydrique suffisamment proche de celui estimé à partir des observations ou des analyses SAFRAN. Deux nouvelles simulations résolvant explicitement les processus convectifs et utilisant un guidage spectral ont permis de montrer à partir de deux années types que cette déficience est imputable à l’incapacité de la méthode de correction à résoudre les différences de timing de la variabilité climatique transitoire simulée par WRF. Deux types d’erreurs de modélisation climatique, survenant indépendamment, sont donc d'une importance primordiale pour les études d'impact: (i) la chronologie des événements pluvieux ; (ii) la distribution statistique des précipitations quotidiennes. La combinaison de ces deux éléments contrôle le nombre de jours franchissant le seuil de 40% de réserve relative en eau du sol et indirectement l’intensité des indices de déficit hydriqueDuring the 2003 drought and heat wave event, douglas-fir and common beech stands in Burgundy have been heavily affected, and presented symptoms of dieback and mortality. This event seems to be the first occurrence of expected climatic changes in the near future and questions their sustainability in Burgundy since their climate vulnerability is mainly due to the amplitude and accumulated water constraints exercised during their growing cycle. In the context of climate change and in order to provide information to forest managers who partly rely on a mapping of the climatic constraints until the end of this century, this work explores the ability of a high resolution hydroclimatic modelling chain, coupling the regional climate model WRF to the daily lumped water balance model Biljou© in order to simulate soil water deficit indices for these two species. The first part of this paper analyzes the capacity of WRF model to simulate each surface atmospheric variable used as input for the water balance computation. The analysis of model's ability to simulate these variables is based on (i) a direct and comparative approach between WRF simulated data and observations recorded by the Météo-France stations network and SAFRAN reanalyses across the whole region, over stations and forest stands, (ii) on an indirect approach using the potential evapotranspiration and soil water deficit index calculated by Biljou©. Results show a significant improvement upon the ERA-Interim data for each variable and a strong ability to produce reliable data at high resolution. However, the WRF capability to estimate a realist potential evapotranspiration, combined to the the low correlation between the average annual soil water deficit and radial growth indexes, show that the WRF deficiencies in simulating water deficit are mainly attributable to its precipitation biases. The second part proposes to apply a statistical post-correction to the WRF precipitation data. Although this method significantly improves the spatial distribution of precipitation, their seasonal and interannual variability and precipitation amounts, post-corrected data do not produce a water deficit index sufficiently close to those ones estimated from observations or SAFRAN reanalysis. Two new simulations explicitly solving convective processes and using a spectral nudging have shown that this deficiency is mainly attributable to the inability of the correction method to solve timing differences of the transient climate variability simulated by WRF. This work showed that two types of climate modeling errors occurring independently, are major issues for impact studies: (i) the timing of precipitations events ; (ii) the statistical distribution of daily precipitation. Combined together, they control the number of days crossing the 40% threshold of relative extractable water and indirectly the soil water deficit index intensity
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Schulthess, Pascal. "Thermodynamic modeling explains the regulation of CYP1A1 expression in the liver." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Lebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17454.
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Die vorliegende Studie präsentiert eine Analyse der Integration der AhR und Wnt/beta-catenin Signalwege in den CYP1A1 Promotor sowie den regulatorischen Einfluss der Promotorlogik auf die Genexpression. Experimentell wurde diese Analyse mithilfe 29 mutagener Reporterkonstrukte des humanen CYP1A1 Promotors durchgeführt. Ein mathematisches Modell, welches eine Repräsentation des Crosstalks der Signaltransduktionswege mit einer statistisch mechanischen Beschreibung der kombinatorischen Promotorbelegung kombiniert, komplementierte den experimentellen Ansatz. Unter zusätzlicher Zuhilfenahme von gut kontrollierbaren synthetischen Promotorkonstrukten fand ich heraus, dass nur jenes Dioxin-responsive Element das sich am nächsten am Transkriptionsstartpunkt befindet, die Promotorbelegung an die RNA Polymerase kommuniziert. Außerdem beobachtete ich, dass Transkriptionsfaktoren alleine mit Transkriptionsfaktoren interagieren die mit benachbarten Bindestellen assoziieren, d.h. Interaktionen überbrücken keine größeren Entfernungen. Der Modellierungsansatz ermöglichte zudem die erfolgreiche Vorhersage einer UND-Gatter-ähnlichen Integration der beiden Signalwege in den Promotor. Für die genomische Architektur des CYP1A1 Promotors konnte ich die Signifikanz der Zielbindestelle des Wnt/beta-catenin Signalwegs innerhalb des cis-regulatorischen Region demonstrieren. Mithilfe des Modells fand ich heraus, dass diese Bindestelle am stärksten und vielfältigsten mit den restlichen Transkriptionsfaktoren interagiert. Zusätzliche konnte, im Vergleich zu dem alles-oder-nichts UND-Gatter der synthetischen Konstrukte, eine sehr viel graduellere Antwort auf die Integration der beiden Signalwege aufgezeigt werden. Abschließend wurde das physiologisch zu beobachtende Expressionsmuster von dem Modell vorhergesagt und experimentell validiert.The study at hand presents an analysis of the integration of the AhR and the Wnt/beta-catenin signaling pathways into the CYP1A1 promoter as well as the regulatory influence of the promoter logic on gene expression. Experimentally, this analysis was conducted with the help of 29 mutant constructs of the human CYP1A1 promoter. I complemented this experimental approach with a set of mathematical models that combined a representation of the signaling crosstalk with a statistical mechanics description of the combinatorial promoter occupancy. With the help of well controllable synthetic promoter constructs I found that only the dioxin responsive element closest to the transcription start site communicates the promoter occupancy to the RNA polymerase. Furthermore, transcription factors only interact with transcription factors that associate with nearby binding sites, i.e., no long-distance binding was observed. The modeling approach subsequently enabled the successful prediction of an AND-gate-like integration of the two signaling pathways into the promoter. For the genomic architecture of the CYP1A1 promoter, I could demonstrate the importance of the Wnt/beta-catenin pathway target binding site within the cis-regulatory region. The model uncovered that this binding site is the strongest and most promiscuous interaction partner of the remaining transcription factors. In addition, a less switch-like response to the integration of the two signaling pathways as compared to the all-or-none AND-gate within the synthetic constructs could be demonstrated. And lastly, the physiological expression pattern in liver lobules could be successfully predicted by the model and experimentally verified.
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Titov, Mikhail. "Investigation of winter aerosol dispersion using the MM5/WRF-CAMx4 numerical modelling system : application to the aerosol abatement strategy for the city of Christchurch : a thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science at the University of Canterbury /." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1581.
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Air circulation and air pollution dispersion models are used by a range of stakeholders involved in managing air quality in New Zealand following the recent establishment and implementation of the National Environmental (Air Quality) Standards by the Ministry for the Environment. MM5-CAMx4 and WRF-CAMx4 numerical modelling systems were utilized to air circulation over the complex terrain of the Christchurch area for investigation applied to winter aerosol pollution, following the recent establishment and implementation of the National Environmental Standards. A new method using several different chemical scenarios is developed to calculate optimal chemical composition of the input gridded aerosol emissions. This method improves the accuracy of predicted PM concentrations. The MM5-CAMx4.2 numerical system is evaluated to predict aerosol concentrations over a 48-72 hour time period for Christchurch for winter 2005. The aerosol concentrations are obtained for four different chemical compositions of the input aerosol emissions. The fine-total PM regression error between observed and modelled aerosol is used to find the minimum difference between modelled and ambient aerosol. Combination of the chemical scenarios with the minimum error between modelled and ambient data is employed to create a new complex chemical scenario. A reduction of the systematic error in the scenario method is achieved by applying the MM5/WRF - CAMx4.2 numerical system and observations for winter 2006, aerosol data from 2 observation sites. Assessment of the efficiency of PM abatement strategies for the period 2005- 2013 is undertaken using winter 2005 meteorology and application of a linear reduction in emissions according to Environment Canterbury proposed plan for aerosol reduction. A new numerical approach to selection of PM monitoring sites optimal localisation is also developed and could be applied to any air pollutant to find the optimal positions for installing new observation sites.
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Lande-Sudall, David. "Co-located offshore wind and tidal stream turbines." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2017. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/colocated-offshore-wind-and-tidal-stream-turbines(72acb21d-1b88-45ad-b944-3f9664330420).html.
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Co-location of offshore wind turbines at sites being developed for tidal stream arrays has been proposed as a method to increase capacity and potentially reduce the cost of electricity compared to operating either technology independently. This research evaluates the cost of energy based on capital expenditure and energy yield. It is found that, within the space required around a single 3 MW wind turbine, co-location provides a 10-16% cost saving compared to operating the same size tidal-only array without a wind turbine. Furthermore, for the same cost of electricity, a co-located farm could generate 20% more yield than a tidal-only array. These results are based on analysis of a case-study site in the Pentland Firth. Wind energy is assessed using an eddy viscosity wake model in OpenWind, with a 3 MW rated power curve and thrust coefficient from a Vestas V90 turbine. Three years of wind resource data is from the UK Met Office UK Variable (UKV) 1.5 km numerical model and corrected against a 400 m Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run over the site. Tidal stream energy is modelled using a semi-empirical superposition of self-similar plane wakes, with a generic 1 MW rated power curve and thrust based on a full-scale, fixed-pitch turbine. Coincident tidal resource data is from the Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) at 7.5 km resolution and correlated with a 150 m ADvanced CIRCulation model (ADCIRC). Wave parameters are corrected from ERA-Interim data with six months of wave buoy data. Multiple tidal turbine array layouts are considered, with maximum tidal energy generated for a staggered array with spacing of 20 tidal turbine diameters, Dt , streamwise and 1.5Dt cross-stream. However, cheapest cost of electricity from the tidal-only array, was found for a single row of turbines, due to minimal wake effects. Laboratory experiments were undertaken to validate the superposition wake model for use with large, shared support structures. Two rotors mounted either side of a central tower generate a peak wake velocity deficit 70% greater than predicted by superposition. This was due to high local blockage and a complex near-wake structure, with a corresponding increase in tower drag of 9%. Further experiments evaluated the impact of oblique inflow on turbines yawed at +/-15 degrees. These results validated a theoretical cosine correction for thrust coefficient and characterised the centreline wake drift with downstream distance. Extreme environmental loads for a shared support structure, compared to structures for wind-only and tidal-only, have also been modelled. A non-linear wave model was used to represent a single wave form with 1% occurrence for each hour of time-series data. Overturning moment about the base of a shared support, with one wind and two tidal turbines, was found to be 4.5% larger than for a wind-only turbine in strong current and with turbines in different operational states. Peak loads across the tidal array were found to vary by 2.5% and so little load reduction benefit could be gained by locating a shared support in a more sheltered area of the array.
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Maureira, Juan-Carlos. "Internet sur rails." Phd thesis, Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00594951.
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Cette thèse propose une nouvelle méthode pour fournir une connexion réseau à des véhicules au cours de trajets prédéterminés (trains, métros, autobus urbains, etc.). La communication entre le véhicule et l'infrastructure réseau est basée uniquement sur la technologie WiFi. Les contributions de ce travail sont d'une part la conception d'une méthode pour réaliser le handover horizontal (entre bornes WiFi), et d'autre part la modélisation et l'analyse de topologies pour le réseau d'infrastructure (réseau backbone plus réseau d'accès WiFi) déployé sur la trajectoire du véhicule. Dans une première partie, nous proposons une méthode, appelée Spiderman Handover, pour réaliser le handover horizontal d'un réseau en mouvement (embarqué dans le véhicule) et une procédure de mise à jour des informations de routage (couche 2 OSI) lors du handover. Nous évaluons notre proposition par simulation et validons nos résultats par des mesures expérimentales. Dans une deuxième partie, nous étudions théoriquement les paramètres de plusieurs familles de topologies du type Chordal pour le réseau backbone construit sur un réseau d'accès linéaire. A partir de la comparaison de ces paramètres, nous proposons une topologie backbone issue de la combinaison de deux topologies Chordal. Cette topologie fournit un bon compromis entre coût du déploiement, nombre de sauts nécessaires pour atteindre la passerelle du réseau et résilience raisonnable. Enfin, nous évaluons l'intégration de la topologie proposée pour le réseau d'infrastructure avec le système handover par des simulations. Les résultats présentés suggèrent que l'algorithme de handover proposé fonctionne correctement sur le réseau d'infrastructure proposé. Cela permet la garantie d'une connexion continue aux passagers à bord des trains, métros ou autobus urbains.
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Hahn, Jens. "From Parts to the Whole." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/21522.
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Die Durchführung von Experimenten und das mathematische Modellieren von zellulären Prozessen gehören in der Systembiologie untrennbar zusammen. Das gemeinsame Ziel ist die Aufklärung des Zusammenspiels intrazellulärer Prozesse wie Metabolismus, Genexpression oder Signaltransduktion. Während sich molekularbiologische Untersuchungen mit den molekularen Mechanismen einzelner isolierter Systeme beschäftigen, zielt die Systembiologie auf die Aufklärung der Zusammenhänge ganzer Prozesse und schließlich auch ganzer Zellen ab. Die Verfügbarkeit von umfangreichen Datensätzen und die steigenden Möglichkeiten im Bereich der Computersimulation haben in den letzten Jahren den Weg geebnet, um auch Ganzzellsimulationen nicht mehr unmöglich erscheinen zu lassen. Diese Arbeit stellt das erste eukaryotische Ganzzellmodell der Bäckerhefe Saccharomyces cerevisiae vor. Hefe als eukaryotischer Modellorganismus ist hierbei der perfekte Kandidat für die Erstellung eines solchen Modells. Er bietet, als wohl meist erforschter eukaryotischer Einzeller in Verbindung mit der Verfügbarkeit einer großen Menge experimenteller Daten, beste Voraussetzungen zur Erstellung eines solchen Modells. Das Projekt ist hierbei in drei Teile gegliedert: i) Die Erstellung eines modularen Ganzzellmodells das alle zellulären Funktionen wie Zellzyklus, Genexpression, Metabolismus, Transport und Wachstum abbildet. ii) Die Implementation einer spezialisierten Simulationsumgebung in Verbindung mit einer Datenbank, um die Erstellung, Simulation und Parametrisierung von Modulen zu ermöglichen. iii) Die Durchführung von Experimenten, um einen ganzheitlichen Datensatz zu erlangen, der Wachstum, Genexpression und Metabolismus abbildet. Die hier vorgestellte Arbeit liefert nicht nur ein mathematisches Modell, sondern benennt auch die Herausforderungen, die während der Arbeit an einem Ganzzellmodell auftreten und stellt mögliche Lösungsansätze vor.In systems biology experiments and mathematical modeling are going hand in hand to gain and increase understanding of cellular processes like metabolism, gene expression, or signaling pathways. While molecular biology investigates single isolated parts and molecular mechanisms of cellular processes, systems biology aims at unraveling the whole process and ultimately whole organisms. Today the availability of comprehensive high-throughput data and computational power paved the way to increase the size of analyzed systems to reach the cellular level. This thesis presents the first whole-cell model (WCM) of a eukaryotic cell, the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. This established model organism is the perfect candidate for the implementation of a holistic model based on the available experimental data and the accumulated biological knowledge. The project is split into three parts: i) The creation of a modular functional-complete whole-cell model, combining the processes cell cycle, gene expression, metabolism, transport, and growth. ii) The implementation of a specialized simulation environment and a database to support module creation, simulation, and parameterization. iii) The elicitation of experimental data by conducting an experiment to achieve a comprehensive data set for parameterization, combining growth, metabolic, proteomic, and transcriptomic data. The presented work provides not only a simple mathematical model but also addresses challenges occurring during the development of whole-cell models and names possible solutions and new methodologies required for the creation of WCMs.
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Wodke, Judith. "Organization and integration of large-scale datasets for designing a metabolic model and re-annotating the genome of mycoplasma pneumoniae." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät I, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16699.
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Mycoplasma pneumoniae, einer der kleinsten lebenden Organismen, ist ein erfolgversprechender Modellorganismus der Systembiologie um eine komplette lebende Zelle zu verstehen. Wichtig dahingehend ist die Konstruktion mathematischer Modelle, die zelluläre Prozesse beschreiben, indem sie beteiligte Komponenten vernetzen und zugrundeliegende Mechanismen entschlüsseln. Für Mycoplasma pneumoniae wurden genomweite Datensätze für Genomics, Transcriptomics, Proteomics und Metabolomics produziert. Allerdings fehlten ein effizientes Informationsaustauschsystem und mathematische Modelle zur Datenintegration. Zudem waren verschiedene Beobachtungen im metabolischen Verhalten ungeklärt. Diese Dissertation präsentiert einen kombinatorischen Ansatz zur Entwicklung eines metabolischen Modells für Mycoplasma pneumoniae. Zuerst haben wir eine Datenbank, MyMpn, entwickelt, um Zugang zu strukturierten, organisierten Daten zu schaffen. Danach haben wir ein genomweites, Constraint-basiertes metabolisches Modell mit Vorhersagekapazitäten konstruiert und parallel dazu das Metabolome experimentell charakterisiert. Wir haben die Biomasse einer Mycoplasma pneumoniae Zelle definiert, das Netzwerk korrigiert, gezeigt, dass ein Grossteil der produzierten Energie auf zelluläre Homeostase verwendet wird, und das Verhalten unter verschiedenen Wachstumsbedingungen analysiert. Schließlich haben wir manuell das Genom reannotiert. Die Datenbank, obwohl noch nicht öffentlich zugänglich, wird bereits intern für die Analyse experimenteller Daten und die Modellierung genutzt. Die Entdeckung von Kontrollprinzipien des Energiemetabolismus und der Anpassungsfähigkeiten bei Genausfall heben den Einfluss der reduktiven Genomevolution hervor und erleichtert die Entwicklung von Manipulationstechniken und dynamischen Modellen. Überdies haben wir gezeigt, dass die Genomorganisation in Mycoplasma pneumoniae komplexer ist als bisher für möglich gehalten, und 32 neue, noch nicht annotierte Gene entdeckt.Mycoplasma pneumoniae, one of the smallest known self-replicating organisms, is a promising model organism in systems biology when aiming to assess understanding of an entire living cell. One key step towards this goal is the design of mathematical models that describe cellular processes by connecting the involved components to unravel underlying mechanisms. For Mycoplasma pneumoniae, a wealth of genome-wide datasets on genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolism had been produced. However, a proper system facilitating information exchange and mathematical models to integrate the different datasets were lacking. Also, different in vivo observations of metabolic behavior remained unexplained. This thesis presents a combinatorial approach to design a metabolic model for Mycoplasma pneumoniae. First, we developed a database, MyMpn, in order to provide access to structured and organized data. Second, we built a predictive, genome-scale, constraint-based metabolic model and, in parallel, we explored the metabolome in vivo. We defined the biomass composition of a Mycoplasma pneumoniae cell, corrected the wiring diagram, showed that a large proportion of energy is dedicated to cellular homeostasis, and analyzed the metabolic behavior under different growth conditions. Finally, we manually re-annotated the genome of Mycoplasma pneumoniae. The database, despite not yet being released to the public, is internally already used for data analysis, and for mathematical modeling. Unraveling the principles governing energy metabolism and adaptive capabilities upon gene deletion highlight the impact of the reductive genome evolution and facilitates the development of engineering tools and dynamic models for metabolic sub-systems. Furthermore, we revealed that the degree of complexity in which the genome of Mycoplasma pneumoniae is organized far exceeds what has been considered possible so far and we identified 32 new, previously not annotated genes.
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Goldenbogen, Björn. "Morphogenesis and Cell Wall Mechanics of Saccharomyces cerevisiae." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/20487.
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Die Entstehung unterschiedlicher Zellformen ist eine zentrale Frage der Biologie und von besonderer Bedeutung für ein umfassendes Verständnis des Modellorganismus Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Form und Integrität dieser Hefen werden durch die Eigenschaften ihrer Zellwand bestimmt. Die mechanischen Prozesse in der Zellwand während der Morphogenese von Hefen sind jedoch wenig verstanden. Zwei Arten der Morphogenese, Knospung und Paarung, wurden hier untersucht, um gemeinsame Prinzipien und Unterschiede hinsichtlich ihrer Zellwandmechanik zu finden. Dabei wurden AFM-basierte Techniken sowie theoretische Modelle verwendet, um räumliche und zeitliche Unterschiede in den mechanischen Eigenschaften zu beurteilen.
Im ersten Teil wird ein biophysikalisches Modell der Knospung vorgestellt, das auf einem Unterschied der mechanischen Zellwandeigenschaften von Mutter und Knospe beruht und die Volumenentwicklung einzelner Zellen beschreiben kann. Da Messungen keinen ausreichenden Unterschied in der Zellwandelastizität zwischen beiden Kompartimenten zeigten, wird deren Viskoplastizität als Unterscheidungsmerkmal vorgeschlagen. Eine Kalibrierung des Modells an Einzelzellmessungen lieferte neben Schätzungen dieser Zellwandviskoplastizität auch die anderer wichtiger Wachstumsparameter. Im zweiten Teil werden nanorheologische Messungen genutzt, um zu zeigen, dass die Zellwand hauptsächlich elastisch ist und ein strukturelles Dämpfungsverhalten aufweist. Dabei wird diskutiert, die Zellwand analog zu einem „soft glassy“ Material zu beschreiben. Im letzten Teil wird die Notwendigkeit eines spezifischen Elastizitätsmusters der Zellwand für das gerichtete Wachstum während der Paarungsmorphogenese beschrieben, welches weicheres Material am Schaft sowie steiferes Material am Apex einschließt.
Zusammenfassend zeigt diese Arbeit, dass räumlich und zeitlich veränderliche viskoelastisch-plastische Zellwandeigenschaften die Morphogenese von S. cerevisiae bestimmen.Morphogenesis is a central field in biology and of particular importance for a comprehensive understanding of the model organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Shape and integrity of yeast cells are determined by its cell wall. However, mechanical processes underlying yeast morphogenesis and are poorly understood. Two modes of yeast morphogenesis, budding and mating, have been studied to find common principles and differences in cell wall mechanics. AFM-based techniques as well as computational models were used to assess spatial and temporal differences in the mechanical properties. In the first part, a biophysical model for the expansion during budding is presented that bases on a difference in the mechanical cell wall properties of mother and bud and accurately describes the volume dynamics of single cells. Since measurements revealed no difference in the cell wall elasticity between both compartments, visco-plastic properties are proposed as distinguishing feature. Fitting the model to single-cell volume trajectories, provided estimations for the visco-plasticity of the cell wall and other key growth parameters. In the second part, nano-rheology measurements were used to confirm that the cell wall is mainly elastic and demonstrate that it shows structural damping behavior. Furthermore, the possibility to describe the cell wall analogous to a “soft glassy” material is discussed. In the last part, the necessity of a specific elasticity pattern of the cell wall for directed growth during yeast mating morphogenesis is shown, including softer material at the shaft and stiffer material at the apex. By showing that spatially and temporally varying viscoelastic-plastic cell wall properties govern the morphogenesis of S. cerevisiae, this work contributes to deciphering molecular mechanisms underlying the growth of yeast and other walled cells.
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Tummler, Katja. "Exploring flexibility and context dependency in the mycobacterial central carbon metabolism." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Lebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17780.
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Tuberkulose ist auch heute noch eine der bedrohlichsten Infektionskrankheiten weltweit, verantwortlich für über 1.5 Millionen Todesfälle jährlich. Diese „Erfolgsgeschichte“ ihres Erregers Mycobacterium tuberculosis ist dabei wesentlich durch einen extrem flexiblen Stoffwechsel bestimmt, der dem Bakterium das Wachstum unter den restriktiven Bedingungen der menschlichen Wirtszelle erlaubt. Diese Arbeit erkundet die Flexibilität des zentralen Kohlenstoffmetabolismus in Mykobakterien mit Hilfe mathematischer Modellierungsansätze, ergänzt durch die Integration von qualitativ hochwertigen experimentellen Daten. Ausgehend von einem Überblick über die metabolische Landschaft des zentralen Kohlenstoffmetabolismus, erhöht sich Schritt für Schritt die Detailtiefe bis hin zur genauen Analyse spezieller infektionsrelevanter metabolischer Wege. Die Verknüpfung des zentralen Kohlenstoffmetabolismus zu umgebenden Stoffwechsel- und Biosynthesewegen wird systematisch offen gelegt, als Voraussetzung für eine thermodynamische Charakterisierung des Systems, welche die Glykolyse als limitierenden Stoffwechselweg unter verschiedenen Wachstumsbedingungen charakterisiert. Basierend auf Protein- und Metabolitdaten im Fleißgleichgewicht, erlaubt eine neu vorgestellte Methode die Vorhersage regulatorischer Punkte für den metabolischen Übergang zwischen verschiedenen Kohlenstoffquellen. Abschließend wird mit Hilfe thermodynamisch-kinetischer Modellierung das Zusammenspiel zweier Stoffwechselwege mechanistisch erklärt, welche den robusten Abbau einer intrazellulären Kohlenstoffquelle ermöglichen. Durch die Entwicklung neuer Modellierungstechniken in Kombination mit hochauflösenden experimentellen Daten, trägt diese Arbeit zum besseren Verständnis der kontextabhängigen Flexibilität des mycobakteriellen Stoffwechsels bei, einem vielversprechenden Angriffspunkt für die Entwicklung neuer Medikamente gegen Tuberkulose.Tuberculosis remains one of the major global health threats responsible for over 1.5 million deaths each year. This ’success story’ of the causative agent Mycobacterium tuberculosis is thereby closely linked to a flexible metabolism, allowing growth despite the restrictive conditions within the human host. In this thesis, the flexibility of the mycobacterial central carbon metabolism is explored by modeling approaches integrating high-quality experimental data. The analyses zoom in from a network based view to the detailed functionalities of individual, virulence relevant pathways. The interconnection of the central carbon metabolism to the remaining metabolic network is charted as a prerequisite to characterize its thermodynamic landscape, debunking glycolysis as bottleneck in different nutritional conditions. Based on steady state metabolomics and proteomics data, regulatory sites for the metabolic transition between different carbon sources are predicted by a novel method. Finally, the flexible interplay between two seemingly redundant pathways for the catabolism of an in vivo-like carbon source is explained mechanistically by means of thermodynamic-kinetic modeling. By employing novel modeling methods in combination with high-resolution experimental data, this work adds to the mechanistic understanding of the context dependent flexibility of mycobacterial metabolism, an important target for the development of novel drugs in the battle against tuberculosis.
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Penner, Johannes. "Macroecology of West African amphibians." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Lebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17035.
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Amphibienpopulationen sind weltweit bedroht. Für fundierte Entscheidungen im Naturschutz ist ein wissenschaftliches Hintergrundwissen notwendig. Eine wichtige Komponente ist die Verbreitung der Arten und die Gründe hierfür. Dies setzt auch Klarheit bezüglich des taxonomischen Status voraus. Vernachlässigte Regionen liegen meist in den Tropen. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, untersucht die vorliegende Arbeit die Makroökologie westafrikanischer Amphibien. Eine neue Art der Familie Phrynobatrachidae wird beschrieben. Anschließend werden die taxonomischen Unterschiede zweier Mitglieder der Familien der Hyperoliidae und der Arthroleptidae untersucht. Dies ebnet den Weg für die Makroökologie. Es wird analysiert, ob Westafrika eine einzigartige biogeographische Region ist. Die Untersuchung zeigen, dass Westafrika in der Tat einzigartig ist. Die Ähnlichkeiten innerhalb der Region sind größer als die innerhalb ähnlicher Habitate aus unterschiedlichen Regionen. Der Cross River ist die wichtigste Barriere. Mehrere geographische Zonierungen innerhalb Westafrikas werden entdeckt. Es wird untersucht, ob der Chytrid Pilz, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, (Bd), ein wichtiger Faktor beim Rückgang der Amphibien Populationen, in West Afrika vorkommt. Bisher gibt es keinen positiven Nachweis westlich Nigerias. Dennoch sagen Modelle geeignete Habitate für Bd vorher. Die wahrscheinlichste Erklärung ist, dass die Dahomey Gap als natürliche Barriere die Ausbreitung von Bd verhindert. Als letztes werden die Nischen westafrikanischer Amphibien eruiert. Für die meisten Arten werden Nischenmodelle berechnet. Dies bestätigt bereits bekannte Gebiete hoher Alpha Diversität und zeigt bisher unbekannte Gebiete auf. Des Weiteren werden Erklärungen für unterschiedliche Verbreitungsgebietsgrößen gesucht. Generell wird die Nischenbreite hierfür verantwortlich gemacht. Die vorliegenden Daten lassen allerdings auch den Schluss zu, dass das Ausbreitungsvermögen das beobachtete Muster ebenfalls erklären kann.Amphibian populations are declining globally. For informed conservation decisions a sound scientific background is needed. One major component is species distribution and the underlying causes. This also requires clarity on the taxonomic status. Often neglected regions are located in the tropics. In order to fill this gap, the present thesis examines the macroecology of West African amphibians. A new species of the family Phrynobatrachidae is described. Afterwards, the taxonomic differences between morphologically similar members of the families Hyperoliidae and Arthroleptidae are discussed. Beside other studies, this sets the field for macroecology. It is tested whether West Africa is a unique biogeographic region. The similarity of amphibian assemblages from Sub-Saharan Africa is analysed and it is shown that West Africa contains unique assemblages. Similarities within the region are higher than similarities between habitats across different regions. The main barrier towards Central Africa is the Cross River. Several geographic divisions within West Africa are detected. It is examined whether the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), one important factor for amphibian population declines in many other regions, occurs in West Africa. So far there is no positive record west of Nigeria. However, models predict that environmental suitability for Bd is high. The most plausible explanation for the absence is that the Dahomey Gap acted as a natural barrier against the spread of the Bd. Finally, the niches of West African amphibians are investigated. For most species environmental niche models are calculated. This confirms previously known areas of high alpha diversity and so far unknown species rich areas are detected. In a further study, explanations for differing range sizes are searched for. Niche breadth is commonly assumed to be the general cause. However, the analysed data also suggests that dispersal ability can also explain the observed pattern.
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Pellet, Elsa Marie. "Systematic inference of regulatory networks that drive cytokine-stimulus integration by T cells." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/20865.
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Differenzierungsentscheidungen von Zellen werden durch die Integration mehrerer Stimuli bestimmt. Die Differenzierung von Helfer-T-Zellen (Th-Zellen) ist hierfür ein gut untersuchtes Beispiel: reife Th-Zellen entwickeln sich beim Kontakt mit einem für sie spezifischen Antigen zu einem spezialisierten Subtyp, der von den in ihrer Umgebung vorhandenen Zytokinen abhängt und exprimieren dann einen spezifischen Mastertranskriptionsfaktor. Die häufigsten Th-Zell-Subtypen sind T-bet-exprimierende Th1-Zellen und GATA-3-exprimierende Th2-Zellen. Neuere Entdeckungen bezüglich der Plastizität von Th-Zell-Subtypen sowie die Existenz von T-bet+GATA-3+ Hybrid-Phänotypen haben die detaillierte Untersuchung vom Differenzierungsprozessen von Th-Zellen mit komplexer Zytokinsignale motiviert.
Dazu haben wir systematisch die Zytokine IFN-g, IL-12 und IL-4 während der primären Differenzierung Th-Zellen titriert und Signaltransduktion und Zielgenexpression quantifiziert. Der Umfang und die Komplexität der Daten machten eine systematische Analyse notwendig, um involvierte Mechanismen genau zu identifizieren. Lineare Regressionsanalyse wurde verwendet, um die Netzwerktopologie zu extrahieren, wobei schon bekannte und zahlreiche neue Interaktionen vorausgesagt wurden. Die prognostizierte Netzwerktopologie wurde dann verwendet, um ein mechanistisches, mathematisches Modell der Zytokinsignalintegration zu entwickeln.
Diese Methode hat ein hochgradig vernetztes regulatorisches Netzwerk inferiert. Bisher nicht beschriebene Funktionen von STAT-Proteine, die die Neuverkabelung des Netzwerkes während der Differenzierung vermitteln, wurden vorhergesagt. Ausgewählte neue Interaktionen wurden in gezielten genetischen Experimenten bestätigt. Während gegenseitige Inhibitionsmotive oft als kanonische digitale Schalter interpretiert werden, funktioniert das Th-Zell-Netwerk als ein Rheostat, der Variationen der Zytokinsignale in graduelle Expressionsänderungen der Mastertranskriptionsfaktoren übersetzt. Unsere Arbeit erklärt mechanistisch das beobachtete Kontinuum von Th-Zelldifferenzierungszuständen entlang der Th1-Th2-Achse und beschreibt eine quantitative Methode für die datenbasierte Inferenz zellulärer Netzwerke der Signalintegration.Cell-fate decisions are governed by the integration of multiple stimuli. Th cell differentiation is a well-studied example thereof: mature Th cells differentiate into a specialised subtype upon encounter with their cognate antigen depending on the polarising cytokines present in their environment and start expressing specific master transcription factors. The most common Th cell subtypes are T-bet-expressing Th1 cells and GATA-3-expressing Th2 cells. Recent discoveries concerning the plasticity of Th cell subtypes as well as the existence of stable T-bet+GATA-3+ hybrid Th1/2 phenotypes have stimulated the detailed study of the differentiation process under different assumptions than the hitherto valid paradigm of single master transcription factor expression by using complex cytokine signals as inputs. Here, we developed a data-based approach for inferring the molecular network underlying the differentiation of T-bet- and/or GATA-3 expressing lymphocytes. We performed systematic titrations of the polarising cytokines IFN-g, IL-12 and IL-4 during primary differentiation of Th cells and quantified signal transduction as well as target-gene expression. The size and complexity of the dataset made a systematic analysis necessary to identify the mechanisms involved. To extract the network topology, we used linear regression analysis, retrieving known regulatory mechanisms and predicting numerous novel ones. This network topology was used to develop a mechanistic mathematical model of cytokine signal integration. This approach inferred a highly connected regulatory network. Previously undescribed functions of STAT proteins mediating network rewiring during differentiation were predicted. Selected new interactions were confirmed by experiments using gene-deficient cells. Importantly, while mutual-inhibition motifs are often considered canonical digital switches, the inferred Th-cell network acts as a rheostat, generating a continuum of differentiated states along the Th1-Th2 axis. This work explains the observed Th1-Th2 cell fate continuum mechanistically and provides a quantitative framework for the data-based inference of cellular signal integration networks.
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Vogel, Jonathan 1988. "Simulation of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the WRF Model at the Southern Great Plains Site." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/148070.
Full textAbstract:
The aerosol direct and indirect effects were investigated for three specific cases during the March 2000 Cloud IOP at the SGP site by using a modified WRF model. The WRF model was previously altered to include a two-moment bulk microphysical scheme for the aerosol indirect effect and a modified Goddard shortwave radiation scheme for the aerosol direct effect. The three cases studied include a developing low pressure system, a low precipitation event of mainly cirrus clouds, and a cold frontal passage. Three different aerosol profiles were used with surface concentrations ranging from 210 cm-3 to 12,000 cm-3. In addition, each case and each aerosol profile was run both with and without the aerosol direct effect.
Regardless of the case, increasing the aerosol concentration generally increased cloud water and droplet values while decreasing rain water and droplet values. Increased aerosols also decreased the surface shortwave radiative flux for every case; which was greatest when the aerosol direct effect was included. For convective periods during polluted model runs, the aerosol direct effect lowered the surface temperature and reduced convection leading to a lower cloud fraction. During most convective periods, the changes to cloud, rain, and ice water mixing ratios and number concentrations produced a nonlinear precipitation trend. A balance between these values was achieved for moderate aerosol profiles, which produced the highest convective precipitation rates. In non-convective cases, due to the presence of ice particles, aerosol concentration and precipitation amounts were positively correlated. The aerosol threshold between precipitation enhancement and suppression should be further studied for specific cloud types as well as for specific synoptic weather patterns to determine its precise values.
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Langodan, Sabique. "The Red Sea: An Arena for Wind-Wave Modeling in Enclosed Seas." Diss., 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10754/622003.
Full textAbstract:
Wind and waves play a major role in important ocean dynamical processes, such as the exchange of heat, momentum and gases between atmosphere and ocean, that greatly contributes to the earth climate and marine lives. Knowledge on wind and wave weather and climate is crucial for a wide range of applications, including oceanographic studies, maritime activities and ocean engineering. Despite being one of the important world shipping routes, the wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea are yet to be fully explored. Because of the scarcity of waves data in the Red Sea, numerical models become crucial and provide very powerful tools to extrapolate wind and wave data in space, and backward and forward in time. Unlike open oceans, enclosed basins wave have different characteristics, mainly because of their local generation processes. The complex orography on both sides of the Red Sea makes the local wind, and consequently wave, modeling very challenging. This thesis considers the modeling of wind-wave characteristics in the Red Sea, including their climate variability and trends using state-of-the-art numerical models and all available observations. Different approaches are investigated to model and understand the general and unusual wind and wave conditions in the basin using standard global meteorological products and customised regional wind and wave models. After studying and identifying the main characteristics of the wind-wave variability in the Red Sea, we demonstrate the importance of generating accurate atmospheric forcing through data assimilation for reliable wave simulations. In particular, we show that the state-of-the-art physical formulation of wave models is not suitable to model the unique situation of the two opposing wind-waves systems in the Red Sea Convergence Zone, and propose and successfully test a modification to the input and white-capping source functions to address this problem. We further investigate the climate variability and trends of wind and waves in the Red Sea using high-resolution wind and wave reanalyses that have been generated as part of this thesis. An innovative spectral partition technique is first applied to distinguish the dominant wave systems. Our analysis demonstrates that winds, and consequently waves, exhibit a decreasing trend in the Red Sea. This is mainly attributed to a remarkable weakening of the winds protruding from the Mediterranean Sea. We also use these highresolution reanalyses to assess the potential for harvesting wind and wave energy from the Red Sea.
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"Modeling the Effect of Urbanization on Climate and Dust Generation Over Desert Cities." Doctoral diss., 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.53597.
Full textAbstract:
abstract: Understanding and predicting climate changes at the urban scale have been an important yet challenging problem in environmental engineering. The lack of reliable long-term observations at the urban scale makes it difficult to even assess past climate changes. Numerical modeling plays an important role in filling the gap of observation and predicting future changes. Numerical studies on the climatic effect of desert urbanization have focused on basic meteorological fields such as temperature and wind. For desert cities, urban expansion can lead to substantial changes in the local production of wind-blown dust, which have implications for air quality and public health. This study expands the existing framework of numerical simulation for desert urbanization to include the computation of dust generation related to urban land-use changes. This is accomplished by connecting a suite of numerical models, including a meso-scale meteorological model, a land-surface model, an urban canopy model, and a turbulence model, to produce the key parameters that control the surface fluxes of wind-blown dust. Those models generate the near-surface turbulence intensity, soil moisture, and land-surface properties, which are used to determine the dust fluxes from a set of laboratory-based empirical formulas. This framework is applied to a series of simulations for the desert city of Erbil across a period of rapid urbanization. The changes in surface dust fluxes associated with urbanization are quantified. An analysis of the model output further reveals the dependence of surface dust fluxes on local meteorological conditions. Future applications of the models to environmental prediction are discussed.Dissertation/Thesis
Doctoral Dissertation Mechanical Engineering 2019
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Sahany, Sandeep. "Fine-Scale Structure Of Diurnal Variations Of Indian Monsoon Rainfall : Observational Analysis And Numerical Modeling." Thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2005/980.
Full textAbstract:
In the current study, we have presented a systematic analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region using satellite observations, and evaluated the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate some of the salient features of the observed diurnal characteristics of rainfall. Using high resolution simulations, we also investigate the underlying mechanisms of some of the observed diurnal signatures of rainfall. Using the Tropical Rain-fall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3-hourly, 0.25 ×0.25 degree 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007), we extract the finer spatial structure of the diurnal scale signature of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Using harmonic analysis, we construct a signal corresponding to diurnal and sub-diurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time-period or the octet of rain-fall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the “peak octet,” is estimated with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430 and 1730 IST, from north central to south Bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet, owing to the occurrence of a dual maxima (early morning and early/late afternoon). The Himalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e.g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e.g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land.
The second part of our study involves evaluating the ability of the Weather Research and Fore-casting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. It also includes conducting high resolution simulations to explore the underlying physical mechanisms of the observed diurnal signatures of rainfall. The model (at 54km resolution) is integrated for the month of July 2006 since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) by using two different SST datasets, namely Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). The overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the impact of different parameterisations (convective, microphysical, boundary layer, radiation and land surface) on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. Following this sensitivity study, we identified the suite of physical parameterisations in the model that “best” reproduces the observed diurnal characteristics of Indian monsoon rainfall.
The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over central India and Bay of Bengal. While the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for July 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18-24 July 2006. This period was chosen for our study since it is composed of an active period (19-21 July 2006), followed by a break period (22-24 July 2006). At 6km grid-spacing the model is able to realistically simulate the active and break phases in rainfall. During the chosen active phase, we find that the observed rainfall over central India tends to reach a maximum in the late night/early morning hours. This is in contrast to the observed climatological diurnal maxima of late evening hours. Interestingly, the 6km simulation for the active phase is able to reproduce this late night/early morning maxima. Upon further analysis, we find that this is because of the strong moisture convergence at the mid-troposphere during 2030-2330 IST, leading to the rainfall peak seen during 2330-0230 IST. Based on our analysis, we conclude that during both active and break phases of summer monsoon, mid-level moisture convergence seems to be one of the primary factors governing the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall. Over the Bay of Bengal, the 6km model simulation is in very good agreement with observations, particularly during the active phase. The southward propagation observed during 19-20 July 2006, which was not captured by the coarse resolution simulation (54km), is exceedingly well captured by the 6km simulation. The positive anomalies in specific humidity attain a maxima during 2030-0230 IST in the north and during 0830-1430 IST in the south. This confirms the role of moisture convergence in the southward propagation of rainfall. Equally importantly we find that while low level moisture convergence is dominant in the north Bay, it is the mid-level moisture convergence that is predominant in the south Bay.
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Vaz, Susana Cardoso Pereira Firmino. "Future projections of extreme climatic events over Iberian Peninsula." Doctoral thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/29835.
Full textAbstract:
In recent years, several extreme events had given the awareness that our climate
has become more extreme. Extreme events, due to their nature, have a high
disruptive potential, so society has more difficulty in accommodating its change,
becoming more vulnerable to the occurrence of this type of change, than to a
gradual change in the mean climate conditions. This study is interested in events
related to temperature and precipitation, on a regional scale, because these
climate parameters play a significant role in the Iberian Peninsula, a vulnerable
and susceptible region to changes in temperature and precipitation.
Throughout this study, several basic statistical metrics were used, such as daily
or seasonal totals, mean, deviations to the mean state (anomalies),
nonparametric probability distribution (PDF) functions, and percentile calculation.
In the case of precipitation, the climatic simulations were corrected concerning
bias. The application of a bias correction method, namely, the quantile mapping,
reduced the systematic errors present in models’ simulations. This study uses a
specific methodology of bias correction to correct systematic bias, presented as
a novel bias correction methodology for climate modelling simulations in the
Iberian Peninsula.
The concept of precipitation episode, as defined in this study, has a character of
novelty. Precipitation episode is defined as a series of consecutive wet days. For
each episode, the duration and intensity were calculated, i.e., the number of rainy
days, and the average of the total precipitation, respectively. Then, the episodes
were grouped into classes of intensity and duration. The heatwaves and cold
spells were analysed with special attention to the summer and winter season,
respectively. The main results project, towards the end of the 21st century,
changes in the character of precipitation and precipitation episodes, and changes
for temperature-related events. There is a reduction in annual precipitation and
the seasonal precipitation for the spring to autumn months. An increase in
precipitation is projected for the winter season. The winter episodes of short
duration and lower intensity increase in the north and northwest regions of the
Iberian Peninsula. The major findings project an increase in the maximum and
minimum temperature and an increase in the number of heatwaves. Although in
none of the variables there is a change in its seasonal structure, some results
suggest an increase in the number of hot to very hot summer days, which can
extend the summer season. Current extreme events will be the norm of the
future. The end of the 21st century, in the Iberian Peninsula, is projected to be
drier and warmer.Nos últimos anos, a ocorrência de alguns fenómenos climáticos excecionais, como por exemplo, ondas de calor e precipitações intensas, têm aumentado a perceção de que o nosso clima se tornou mais extremo. Os eventos extremos, devido à sua natureza, apresentam um elevado potencial disruptivo, logo, a sociedade tem mais dificuldade em acomodar a sua mudança, ficando mais vulnerável à ocorrência deste tipo de alterações, do que a uma mudança gradual, nas condições médias do clima. Este estudo está interessado em eventos relacionados com a temperatura e com a precipitação, à escala regional, pois estas variáveis climáticas desempenham um papel importante na Península Ibérica, uma região vulnerável e sensível, às mudanças de temperatura e precipitação. Ao longo deste estudo, foram utilizadas várias métricas estatísticas básicas, tais como, totais diários ou sazonais, médias, desvios ao estado médio (anomalias), funções de distribuição de probabilidade (PDF) não paramétricas e cálculo de percentis. No caso da precipitação, as simulações climáticas foram corrigidas em relação ao viés. A aplicação de um método de correção de viés, nomeadamente, o quantile mapping, reduz os erros sistemáticos presentes nas simulações do modelo. Este estudo utiliza um método específico de correção de viés para corrigir o viés sistemático, em simulações futuras de precipitação, uma novidade na correção de viés em simulações climáticas, aplicadas à Península Ibérica. O conceito de episódio de precipitação, tal como definido neste estudo, apresenta-se como uma novidade. Definiu-se episódio de precipitação como uma série de dias consecutivos com chuva. Para cada episódio, calculou-se a duração, ou seja, o número de dias do episódio, e a intensidade, como a média do total de precipitação nesses dias. De seguida, os episódios são agrupados em classes de intensidade e duração. As ondas de calor e ondas de frio foram analisadas dando especial atenção à temporada de verão e inverno, respetivamente. Os resultados principais projetam, para o final do século XXI, mudanças no caráter da precipitação e nos episódios da precipitação, e alterações para os eventos relacionados com a temperatura. Há uma redução na quantidade de precipitação anual e na precipitação dos meses da primavera ao outono. Projeta-se um aumento da precipitação no período do inverno. Os episódios de precipitação de curta duração, no inverno, aumentam na região norte e noroeste da Península Ibérica. Projeta-se um aumento da temperatura máxima e mínima, e um aumento no número de ondas de calor. Embora, em nenhuma das variáveis se verifica a alteração da sua estrutura sazonal, alguns resultados sugerem um aumento do número de dias de verão quentes a muito quentes, que podem alongar a temporada de verão. Os eventos extremos atuais serão a norma do futuro. O final do século XXI, na Península Ibérica, projeta-se como mais seco e mais quente.
Programa Doutoral em Física
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Karlický, Jan. "Model WRF a jeho využití v regionálním klimatickém modelování ve vysokém rozlišení." Master's thesis, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-305679.
Full textAbstract:
This work is dealing with regional climate models. Firstly, their principle and use of them is described, including advantages and disadvantages of this approach. Further, the application of WRF numerical weather prediction model in climate mode is described and differences in use of CLWRF modification and its advantages for getting results are discussed. Possibilities of this implementation and testing runs for finding appropriate settings are presented. Finally, the results of one ten-year and four five-year simulations of model with different settings are compared with observed values. Some chapters are dedicated to possibilities of processing and graphics outputs of model results and discussion.
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CHEN, YING. "Evaluation and Improvement of Particle Number/Mass Size Distribution Modelling in WRF-Chem over Europe." Doctoral thesis, 2017. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A15889.
Full textAbstract:
Atmospheric aerosol particles play an important role in global climate change, via direct and indirect radiative forcing. Elemental carbon (EC) and nitrate are important contributors to anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing over Europe, since they strongly absorb and/or scatter solar radiation, respectively. However, the evaluation of their climate effects remains highly uncertain. Improvements on the simulation of particle number/mass size distribution (PSD) in modelling will help us to refine model assessments of climate change. The simulations were performed over Europe with a fully online-coupled regional air quality model (WRF-Chem) for the time period of September 10-20th, 2013. Measurements in the HOPE-Melpitz campaign and other datasets in Europe were adopted to evaluate the model uncertainties.
The meteorological conditions were well reproduced by the simulations. However, a remarkable overestimation of coarse mode PSD was found in the simulations. The overestimation was mainly contributed by EC, sodium nitrate and sea salt (SSA), stemming from the inadequate emission of EC and SSA. The EC inventory overestimates EC point sources in Germany and the fractions of coarse mode EC emissions in Eastern Europe and Russia. Allocating too much EC emission into the coarse mode could shorten EC lifetime and reduce its long-range transport, thus partly (~20-40%) explaining the underestimation of EC in Germany, when air masses came from eastern direction in previous studies. Furthermore, WRF-Chem overestimated coarse mode SSA mass concentrations by factors of about 8-20 over northwestern and central Europe in this study, due to the shortcoming of its emission scheme. This could facilitate the coarse mode sodium nitrate formation and lead to ~140% overestimation of coarse mode nitrate. Under such circumstances, nitric acid was exhausted, and fine mode ammonium nitrate formation was inhibited. The overestimated SSA shaped the PSD of nitrate towards larger sizes, which might influence the optical properties, lifetime and climate effect of nitrate accordingly. A transport mechanism would broaden the influence of SSA on nitrate PSD to central Europe, where a considerable amount of nitrate precursors and ammonium nitrate is present.:Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Abbreviations
1. Introduction
1.1 Particle size distribution
1.2 Elemental carbon particle size distribution simulation
1.3 Chemical pathways for particulate nitrate
1.4 Influence of sea salt on nitrate particle mass size distribution
1.5 Objectives
2. Methodology
2.1. WRF-Chem model
2.1.1. General description
2.1.2. Model configuration
2.1.3 Anthropogenic source emissions
2.1.4 Natural source emissions
2.2 HOPE-Melpitz campaign
2.3 GUAN network over Germany
2.4 Other datasets
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 First publication
3.1.1 Evaluation of the size segregation of elemental carbon (EC) emission in Europe: influence on the simulation of EC long-range transportation
3.1.2 Supporting information
3.2 Second publication
3.2.1 Sea salt emission, transport and influence on size-segregated nitrate simulation: a case study in northwestern Europe by WRF-Chem
3.2.2 Supporting information
4. Summary and Conclusions
5. Outlook
Appendix A
Bibliography
Acknowledgements