Literatura científica selecionada sobre o tema "Campaign Price"

The study sought to determine the role of media campaigns in educating university youth about various developmental issues and their relationship to their level of anxiety. The study is descriptive. It relied on the survey method on a sample of 400 adolescents at Ain Shams University. The most important forms of benefiting from the follow-up of media campaigns related to development issues came to provide them with important information about development issues, give a sense of confidence in state institutions, increase the sense of responsibility towards society, follow up on current development issues, awareness and interest in them. The most important media campaigns presented on satellite channels related to development issues are health awareness campaigns (Coronavirus - C virus campaign - 100 million health campaign - breast cancer), slum development campaigns, solidarity and dignity campaign to support the needy, small and micro enterprises support campaign, payment campaigns, electronic, economic campaign (price reduction - price control), low-income support campaign (supply system - bread system), campaigns for the disabled and people with special needs. The positive aspects of media campaigns related to development issues came as follows: The presented development issues are new and consistent with the current needs of society, their goals are clear and specific, their design is innovative, they encourage positive change, they seek to meet the needs of the ordinary citizen, the celebrities involved in media campaigns, the serious development issues that It presents it through its messages, the technical methods used in presenting development issues.

Purpose Cause-related marketing (CRM) campaigns have become common features of the marketplace. CRM often involves a for-profit business agreeing to contribute a specified amount to a cause when the business’s customers engage in revenue-generating exchanges. Despite the central role that price is likely to play in a consumer’s decision to purchase or not to purchase an offer associated with a CRM campaign, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, very few have examined price framing effects in a CRM context. This paper aims to explore the effect of rightmost digits manipulation in prices on participation intentions for CRM campaigns. Design/methodology/approach In Study 1, 241 college students participated in an online experiment for class credit. The experiment used a 3 (price level: low, medium and high) × 2 (price ending: 99 ending and no ending) between-subjects design. The dependent variable was participation intention, and several moderators and mediators were considered. PROCESS was used to test the moderated mediation. In Study 2, 351 subjects participated in an online experiment with a design similar to the earlier study. In Study 2, however, new mediators were added and the moderated mediation was tested using SPSS PROCESS macro. Findings This research shows that price ending impacts the effectiveness of CRM as a tactic on consumers’ purchase intentions. Consistent with the authors’ prediction, this study shows that consumers exposed to a 99-ending CRM offer are more likely to participate in the offer compared to consumers exposed to a no-ending priced offer. Offer attractiveness, elaboration and corporate social responsibility were also shown to have a strong effect on participation intentions. Practical implications This research indicates that for moderately priced products, 99-ending prices led to an increased influence on consumer purchase intentions; on the other hand, no-ending/even-ending prices were more effective for high-priced products. Thus, the use of the right digit effect by managers in a CRM context as way of increasing consumers’ participation likelihood is likely to be more successful for moderately priced offers. Originality/value This research extends previous work on CRM and right digit effect in pricing. This study’s findings, in both Studies 1 and 2, demonstrate that the effectiveness of CRM campaigns on consumer choice is dependent on the offer price ending. Consumers exposed to the no-ending priced CRM offers tend to be affected less by CRM campaigns compared to consumers exposed to 99-ending offers, who perceive the offer as more attractive.

Research background: An essential part of marketing practice in contemporary food retail is the store flyer campaign, in which goods are offered at discounted prices. Even if it is not a new innovation in the field of sales promotion, its popularity does not decrease, and what’s more, in many countries it is still one of the most successful forms of promotion and communication with customers. Purpose of the article: This article brings an answer to the question of how to plan a successful store flyer campaign. The goal is to design the process of planning such campaign based on the knowledge of price elasticity of demand. The rate of success is represented by the level of fulfillment of goals set by the merchant. Methods: The area of the research is the Czech retail food market . The knowledge of the price elasticity of demand is based on the analysis of real terms of prices, sales volumes and margins, and the typology of goals we want to achieve. The proposed method of planning determines the evaluation rules for products in terms of their suitability for inclusion in a store flyer. The calculated values of price elasticity of demand and their changes during the time phases of the campaign are used as a knowledge base for a planning of consumers’ responses to the store flyer. The principle of planning is demonstrated in a case study. Findings & Value added: The practical output of the proposed process is the answer to the question of which goods should be included in the store flayer to achieve the goals set for the campaign. This study gives the method of identifying the groups of products which are suitable for inclusion in the store flyer and recommends the rules for the planning of the campaign.

Influential nodes with rich connections in online social networks (OSNs) are of great values to initiate marketing campaigns. However, the potential influence spread that can be generated by these influential nodes is hidden behind the structures of OSNs, which are often held by OSN providers and unavailable to advertisers for privacy concerns. A social advertising model known as influencer marketing is to have OSN providers offer and price candidate nodes for advertisers to purchase for seeding marketing campaigns. In this setting, a reasonable price profile for the candidate nodes should effectively reflect the expected influence gain they can bring in a marketing campaign. In this paper, we study the problem of pricing the influential nodes based on their expected influence spread to help advertisers select the initiators of marketing campaigns without the knowledge of OSN structures. We design a function characterizing the divergence between the price and the expected influence of the initiator sets. We formulate the problem to minimize the divergence and derive an optimal price profile. An advanced algorithm is developed to estimate the price profile with accuracy guarantees. Experiments with real OSN datasets show that our pricing algorithm can significantly outperform other baselines.

Among the least-researched American elections are those for seats on the states' supreme courts, arguably some of the most important political positions in the states. We know not only that campaign spending in these races has increased sharply in the past 20 years but also that there is great variation in spending among them. What factors cause campaign spending to vary among races for the states' highest courts? And what can an understanding of campaign spending in these races tell us about campaign spending for other offices? I use data from 281 state supreme court races in 21 states from 1990 to 2000 to answer these questions. I find that state supreme court campaign spending is driven by the characteristics of the race, institutional arrangements, and the electoral and state supreme court context.

Scarcity-based marketing strategy has been prevalently implemented in reward-based crowdfunding in the form of reward limits, whereby campaign creators restrict the number of backers for each reward tier. This study uncovers the effect of reward limits on eventual and concurrent funding performance. Specifically, we performed campaign-level and campaign day–level analyses on a unique data set from a dominant crowdfunding platform. At the campaign level, we determined that setting reward limits at the beginning of a campaign is beneficial, with the number of limited reward tiers exerting an inverted-U-shaped relationship with campaign performance. Further exploration of different forms of reward limits suggests that the scarcity effects largely originate from limited edition and price discount rewards. At the campaign day level, we determined that incorporating new limited edition rewards is helpful for attracting new contributions, whereas depleted price discount rewards will demotivate subsequent contributions. In addition, the goal-directed mechanism in crowdfunding plays an influential role in shaping scarcity effects. Our findings highlight the importance of considering backer-as-consumer needs in crowdfunding campaign design and the dynamics of campaign attribute changes in the fundraising process. Our findings also provide important practical implications for platform operators, campaign creators, and marketers.

Researchers examined a student-driven campaign intended to reduce high-risk drinking at a Midwestern, public research university in the United States. The campaign was implemented as part of a comprehensive social marketing effort to address high-risk drinking. Efforts employed on campus addressed various aspects of the marketing mix, including product, price, place, and promotion through late-night alcohol-free activities, increased enforcement, a substance abuse mentoring program, and the student-driven promotional campaign. Outcome measures of the campaign evaluation included assessing the effectiveness of promotional materials in prompting student visits to the campaign website and assessing the impact on students’ reported drinking-related beliefs and behaviors. Following extensive formative research, student developers designed campaign promotional materials that incorporated socially relevant images and messages to enhance students’ confidence related to making simple, low-risk decisions about drinking. Evaluation included an anonymous survey sent to a stratified random sample of undergraduate students. Responses were gathered regarding student demographics, appeal of promotional materials, self-reported drinking patterns, and whether the campaign impacted students’ reflections on drinking or beliefs and behaviors concerning their own alcohol consumption. Study results indicate online and interactive promotional materials (i.e., Facebook page and campaign video) increased the likelihood of student visits to the website, and students exposed to the website reported increased confidence and use of techniques to reduce alcohol-related harm. Use of socially relevant messages and online or interactive campaign components appear to be promising when implementing campaigns to address college student high-risk drinking.

Facebook is a social networking website that is operated and privately owned by Faceboolc, Inc. The website has cttrrently more than 350 million active users with second position populrity worldwide ofier Google. More than 50?5 of Facebook users access their account daib. The website is free to users andit generates revenuefrom advertising, such as banner adt. Today, Facebook advertisernents become a reasonable optionfor mt ny cottp(mies on a smoll to giant scale as an ffictive media for publishing their promotion campaign. Facebook advertisernents hmte many different variables, ways, audierrces, and rnethods to mix their promotion campaigns thsn conventional prornotions do. A company, that wants to do online promotion oa Facebaok, needs to lonw which variables there are that influerrces Facebook user's attention beforethey do the promotion campaign This research is aimed a learning the effects of product, price, messoges, design, and layout on qdvertisement attention on the Facebookwebsite. The sampling was takenfrom college students who had had Facebook accountfor, at leost, 3 months and accessed their occount minimum 3 times a week. The research result showed that generally, as a whole when using collective methods, all variables (product, price, messages, design, and layout)influenced advertisement attention on the Facebook website. In partial method, however, the result demonstroted that indivi&tally, product, and layout variables influenced the attention of the advertisements but price and design variables did not intluence advertisenents attention on the Facebook website.Kqruords: product, price, messages, desisrr, layout, Facebaok

Abstract Healthcare systems face challenges due to budget constraints, complex therapies, and new treatments for rare diseases. One of the most successful patient advocacy campaigns of all times was initiated by people living with HIV and AIDS in African countries. Facing industry giants, they won court cases allowing governments to ignore intellectual property rights when the price of a medicine was abnormally high. This led to the approval of the international ‘Agreement on Trade Related aspects of Intellectual Property Rights’, which contributed to improving the availability of AIDS treatments for millions of people. Beyond this successful patient advocacy campaign, patient organisations have an important role to play in national discussions on prices of treatments and pharmaceuticals, especially for rare diseases. This article first discusses the specificity of the pricing of orphan medicinal products, and then provides an overview of some of the important actions that can be carried out by patients’ organisations.

This diploma thesis elaborates on the customer behavior on the Czech grocery market. The emphasis is particularly put on the customers' reaction to the special offer flyers. This research paper describes the real special offer price campaigns of the retailer Globus and analyses the customer behavior that is caused by these special offer prices. Furthermore this thesis also develops the concept of better reaction to such a customer behavior. By applying this concept, better and more effective realization of special offer price campaigns could be generated.

The purpose of this study is to clarify and confirm previous research and expand the knowledge in this research area, since the majority of the information and knowledge that is available today is mostly repetitive. The theoretical frame of this study is based on theories, such as Theory of Reasoned Action (Fishbein, M. & Ajzen, I. 1967), alongside previous research done in this research area. The previous research consists of, among other things, analysed associations with the six different colours that this study also emphasizes. The theoretical synthesis is based on the deductive process; meaning, the authors of this survey have collected data and by observing this data, the authors determine whether these theories and previous researchers' arguments can be confirmed or not. Since this survey is based on a qualitative research method, the data collection for this study was executed through focus group interviews. The authors of this survey interviewed three focus groups with various participants in each focus group. Considering that this study focuses on the consumer and its behavior in the grocery store, the researchers selected interviewees who themselves are consumers and who regularly shop in the grocery store. In conclusion, the participants in the focus group interviews confirm that colour associations have an impact on their buying behavior in grocery stores.

Various academic authors have analysed the implementation, the causes and the impact of the permanent campaign strategy by political executives in presidential and parliamentary systems, notably the United States and United Kingdom. This study builds on this literature and extends the research on the permanent campaign in the European parliamentary majoritarian context by examining contemporary Greece as a national case study. In particular, the study addresses three questions. First, did contemporary Greek Prime Ministers adopt the permanent campaign strategy? Second, why did they do so? Third, what impact did the implementation of the permanent campaign have on their public approval? The research focuses on the cases of three successive Prime Ministers in Greece: Costas Simitis (1996–2004), Kostas Karamanlis (2004–2009) and George Papandreou (2009-2011). Simitis and Papandreou were leaders of the centre-left PASOK, while Karamanlis was the leader of the centre-right New Democracy. The study finds that all three Prime Ministers undertook the permanent campaign strategy in order to maintain public approval, aligning themselves with their British and American counterparts. They established new communication units within the primeministerial apparatus, consulted with communication professionals to form a coherent communication strategy, used private polling to shape political strategy, policy and presentation, used campaign-like messages as mottos to promote their policy plans and made public appearances to woo public opinion. In addition, the thesis indicates that the permanent campaign in Greece was a result of the modernisation of political communication due to political and technological developments, such as the decline of political parties, the rise of television and the proliferation of new political technologies that have appeared in other countries as well. However, the results drawn from the data analysis suggest that the 6 prime ministerial permanent campaign hardly affected the prime ministerial approval, confirming the findings of empirical studies in the US and the UK.

L’objectif général de cette thèse est d’étudier la prise de décision des individus en situation de catastrophe naturelle, en l’occurrence d’origine volcanique, et d’aboutir à des applications possibles, notamment à une amélioration de la prise de décision des populations exposées. Nous nous sommes intéressés à l’incertitude, dimension essentielle des situations de catastrophe naturelle, qui présente un impact important sur les émotions et la prise de décision des individus. D’une part, l’incertitude situationnelle est déterminante quant aux émotions prospectives comme la peur, et, d’autre part, l’incertitude des conséquences influence l’utilisation des heuristiques émotionnelles (émotions comme éléments pertinents à la décision) dans la prise de décision (système 1). Ce travail de thèse a été traité selon trois axes complémentaires. Dans le premier axe, intitulé Incertitude situationnelle, effet de cadrage et prise de décision, nous avons montré que la simple exposition à l’incertitude situationnelle impliquerait une absence d’effet de cadrage, qui, selon les travaux précédents, pourrait provenir d’une augmentation du traitement systématique (système 2), liée au processus de régulation fronto-amygdalienne. Dans le second axe, Incertitude des conséquences, information à la population et prise de décision, nous avons mis en évidence le fait qu’une réduction de l’incertitude des conséquences dans l’information donnée à la population permettait, dans certains cas précis, d’aboutir à de meilleures prises de décision. L’effet obtenu n’a néanmoins été identifié que dans les situations impliquant de fortes émotions anticipatoires (domicile, dilemmes moraux), situations fréquentes au cours des catastrophes naturelles. Enfin, dans le troisième axe, Création d’une base de stimuli pour l’étude du comportement humain face aux risques naturels, nous avons présenté la construction et la validation d’une base d’images liées aux catastrophes naturelles et au volcanisme, nommée « Natural Disasters Picture System » (NDPS)
The overall aim of this thesis is to examine the decision-making of individuals at risk of natural disaster, specifically related to volcanism, and to achieve potential applications, notably to improve the decision-making of individuals at risk. We focused on the uncertainty, an essential aspect of natural disaster events, which greatly impacts individuals’ emotions and decision-making. On the one hand, the situational uncertainty is an essential component for prospective emotions such as fear, and on the other hand, the uncertainty of consequences determines the use of affect heuristics (emotions used as relevant aspects of the decision) in decision-making (system 1). This doctoral thesis followed three complementary axes. In the first axis, namely Situational Uncertainty, Framing Effect and Decision-Making, we exhibited that the mere exposure to situational uncertainty could negate the framing effect, which could be explained, based on previous works, by an increase of systematic processing (system 2), stemming from the processes of the fronto-amygdala regulation. In the second axis, Uncertainty of Consequences, Information to Population and Decision-Making, we have evidenced that a reduction of the uncertainty of consequences applied to the information to population could improve, under certain circumstances, the individuals’ decisions. This effect was only identified in situations of highly charged anticipatory emotions (home environment, moral dilemmas), which are frequently encountered situations during natural disasters. Lastly, in the third axis, Creation of a Stimuli Dataset for the Study of the Human Behavior Facing Natural Hazard, we detailed the conception and validation of an image dataset dedicated to natural disasters and volcanism, named “Natural Disasters Picture System” (NDPS)

En cette ère de mondialisation, un des outils plus efficaces pour parvenir à la légitimité de la communauté internationale est la diplomatie publique. Dans le contexte de cette réalité, le cas d'Israël au cours des années 2000-2008 recèle une foule de renseignements sur l'effort d’un système de diplomatie publique étatique. Cette recherche tente d'identifier les contraintes ou/ et les catalyseurs qui constituent la base de l'utilisation efficace de la diplomatie publique étatique. L’analyse des résultats de la recherche dévoile deux contraintes majeures pour la diplomatie publique étatique au 21e siècle : 1 L’absence d’une stratégie appropriée 2 L’importance de la culture organisationnelle par rapport à tout changement structurel organisationnel. Sur la base de ces paramètres, l'étude propose un modèle différent de diplomatie publique qui est appelé la « diplomatie publique totale ». Les concepts principaux de ce modèle consistent à éliminer la dichotomie entre l’évènement et le message et à adapter un stratégie où « l’évènement (lui-même) est le message ». Cette approche nécessite l’intégration pleine et entière d’une diplomatie publique qui est au cœur de l'élaboration de la politique, ce qui permettra la création d'un système de diplomatie publique étatique adaptée aux réalités du 21ème siècle
In the 21st century one of the most efficient tools to achieve international legitimacy is public diplomacy. The Israeli case during 2000 -2008 offers a vast array of information about a state public diplomacy system - relatively experienced and yet with a limited success. This research identifies the constraints and catalysts that affect the efficient use of Israel's public diplomacy. The accurate identification of these constraints/catalysts is a pre-requisite to offer a valid way to improve it. Indeed, the research findings reveal two major constrains of a state public diplomacy system: 1. The lack of a (if any) suitable public diplomacy strategy , and 2. The crucial importance of organizational culture in defining the success of any structural change. Based on these parameters, the research offers a different concept that is named "total public diplomacy". This concept is based on the abolition of the dichotomy between the event and the message and calls for a public diplomacy that is an integral part of the policy where policy and public diplomacy serve each other as a rule, i. E. , "The event is the message". This will be supported by a "franchise type" structure that is adaptable to its environment - the 21st century’s communication technology

L’immersion permanente dans le liquide de refroidissement et les fortes variations de températures inhérentes à certaines applications automobiles constituant un environnement défavorable aux composites plastiques, les effets de cet environnement sur ces matériaux doit être connus afin de permettre une conception fiable des composants. Cette thèse présente une étude expérimentale et théorique sur un PPS/GF 40 et sa matrice. Les variations de températures et le vieillissement du matériau lié à l’immersion dans le liquide de refroidissement ont été investiguées de manière expérimentale via des essais de tractions cycliques et monotones sur le plastique pur et sur le composite en faisant varier la proportion de glycol dans le liquide de refroidissement. Les résultats de ces essais ont permis l’identification des principaux phénomènes physiques à l’œuvre dans le PPS pur et responsables des évolutions de son comportement mécanique en fonction de cet environnement hydro-thermique. Ces observations expérimentales ont permis la mise en place d’un modèle phénoménologique traduisant le comportement complexe du PPS et de l’extrapoler pour différentes températures. Les effets du vieillissement ont été intégrés au sein de ce même modèle via l’établissement d’une équivalence température/immersion. A partir de l’étude réalisée sur la matrice PPS, le modèle proposé a été extrapolé au niveau du composite via une homogénéisation analytique de son comportement. Un certain écart a été observé entre la prédiction du comportement plastique et le comportement observé expérimentalement. Une investigation par éléments finis de la cohésion fibre/matrice par endommagement d’inter-phase a été menée afin d’expliquer ces différences. Ce travail a permis de mettre en exergue l’influence du vieillissement sur cette cohésion et de quantifier la perte de résistance de cette inter-phase induite par l’immersion. Enfin, une étude expérimentale en fatigue a été menée sur le composite. Les similitudes observées avec le comportement en quasi-statique ont permis de réutiliser des paramètres du modèle développé afin d’extrapoler les courbes de Wöhler pour différentes températures. Cette extrapolation étant alors possible, un modèle 1D a été développé afin d’estimer l’élévation de température induite dans le matériau suite aux phénomènes d’auto-échauffement induits par la sollicitation en fatigue, tout en prenant en considération les effets du vieillissement sur la microstructure du matériau
This thesis presents an experimental and theoretical study conducted on a PPS/GF40 and its matrix. Widely used for under-the-hood applications in the automotive industry, those materials are subjected to high temperatures and aging effects of cooling liquid. Therefore, the understanding of those phenomena is essential to design mechanical parts. Thus, an experimental campaign in the tensile mode has been carried out with different temperatures and glycol proportions in the cooling liquid, for monotonic and cyclic loadings on neat and reinforced PPS. The results of these tests allowed us to highlight some of the main physical phenomena occurring during these solicitations under tough hydro-thermal conditions. Taking into account this analysis, a visco-elasto-pseudo-viscoplastic model is proposed. Moreover, this model allows the consideration of the cooling liquid effects and its constituents by temperature/humidity equivalence. The accuracy of the model was confronted to an artificial intelligence based one, in order to study the maximal accuracy physically reachable. Finally, the evolution of the model parameters has been studied with the adjunction of short glass fibres and for specifics orientation distribution. Starting from the study of the mechanical behavior of the PPS matrix, an analytical homogenization was then performed. Differences between experimental and predicted plastic behaviors were highlighted. Finite element analyses considering inter-phase damage were done at different temperatures and for several fiber orientations so to explain differences arising between analytical approach and experimental results. This work allowed a study of the evolution of the impact of this damage on mechanical properties as a function of temperature and fiber orientation. This work led to highlight a weakening of the fiber/matrix interface for a liquid aged composite and to quantify the decrease of the interface properties. Finally, fatigue behavior of the composite is studied as a function of fiber orientation. The modeling parameters determined from the study of the monotonic behavior of the composite were taken into account to propose a prediction of the Wöhler curves as a function of temperature. The prediction of the Wöhler curves as a function of temperature being possible, a 1D model was then proposed in order to evaluate the increase of temperature due to self-heating phenomenon during fatigue loading, considering ageing consequences

L’objectif majeur de cette thèse a été d’appréhender les conséquences de la comparaison sociale sur l’auto-évaluation implicite et explicite en termes de prudence, les affects et les comportements à risque. Les participants ont été exposés à un standard de comparaison prudent (standard haut) ou imprudent (standard bas) en matière d’alcool. Les résultats montrent que les sujets confrontés au standard haut se perçoivent implicitement plus imprudents et ressentent plus d’anxiété que les sujets exposés au standard bas. En revanche, le standard de comparaison n’influence pas l’auto-évaluation explicite et les comportements contrôlés. Ces résultats témoignent en faveur d’une dissociation entre les processus automatiques (implicites) et contrôlés (explicites) en jeu dans la comparaison sociale. Au niveau appliqué, nos données suggèrent que dans une campagne de prévention il serait potentiellement plus efficace de mettre en scène un standard prudent plutôt que de montrer un preneur de risque
The main goal of this PhD research was to study the consequences of social comparison on implicit and explicit self-evaluation in terms of cautiousness, on affect and on risk-taking behavior. In a series of studies, participants were exposed to a comparison standard who displayed either cautious (high standard) or reckless (low standard) drinking behavior. Results show that participants confronted with the high standard implicitly perceive themselves as more reckless and experience higher levels of anxiety than participants exposed to the low standard. On the other hand, the comparison standard does not influence explicit self-evaluation and controlled behaviors. These results indicate that there might be a dissociation between automatic (implicit) and controlled (explicit) processes involved in social comparison. On an applied level, regarding alcohol prevention campaigns, our findings suggest that it could be more effective to show a cautious standard rather than a reckless one

The target of the thesis is an evaluation of current advertising offers and budgeting system characteristic of a particular organization. Object of study is advertising on various radio stations, satisfaction with the work of companies, advertising agencies and then to their advertising and consumers look to advertising.

This chapter discusses a campaign by the New York hotel workers to ensure new hotels built in East Midtown will employ unionized labor and continue to offer decent wages and benefits. This case shows how the New York Hotel Trades Council's (HTC) intervention in East Midtown formed part of a broader campaign to block hotel development in a sector that is increasingly fragmented by service format, and most worrisome, witnessing a rapid growth of hotels providing few services and competing on price, leading to a stronger employer opposition to unionization. The outcome of this case speaks unequivocally to organized labor's strength in New York City politics and to a growing recognition in real estate and policymaking circles of labor's importance in urban land use planning.

The incessant complaints by civil society organizations and the general public in Nigeria against exploitative charges by tour operators and travel agencies on hapless Hajj and Umrah pilgrims call for careful examination. Previously, some of these unscrupulous tour operators have hidden under the excuse of the high cost of visas to charge exorbitant fees. However, with the recent clarification from the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Nigeria that both Hajj and Umrah visas are free, it is clear that some travel agencies have been exploiting Nigerian pilgrims. This chapter is conducted in order to address this issue. Consequently, the chapter attempts to provide relevant insights on Islamic tourism in Nigeria with specific emphasis on the reasons behind the high cost and variations in the prices of Umra packages among travel agencies in Kano State of Nigeria. It is an exploratory study that uses a qualitative approach through in-depth interviews with senior officers of selected travel agencies in Kano. Findings from the study reveal that Umra pilgrims in Kano pay higher and different fares. It has also been established that there are variations in Umra prices due to some direct and indirect factors that determine Umra package fares. Consequently, it is recommended that there is a need for the National Hajj Commission of Nigeria (NAHCON) to properly regulate Umra pilgrimage like that of Hajj and to embark on an aggressive enlightenment campaign to educate potential and present Umra pilgrims on the necessary factors that affect the price of a typical Umra package and how they can identify a registered travel agency from a quack one so as to protect themselves against undue exploitation.

Accompanied China's stellar economic developments in past decades, over-population has worsened the negative impacts of rapid industrialization and urbanization upon China's already fragile environment. Rare, a U.S.-based social marketing non-profit organization on global environmental conservation efforts, has expanded to China to train 120 local campaign managers at 2,400 remote areas. This book chapter aims to examine how Rare's grass-root approach in its PRIDE campaigns has helped alleviate the effects of over-population on environmental causalities in China. This multi-campaign case study explores whether cultural norms can be used by local campaign managers as a change agent and a transformative practice tool. Results found that recurrent appearance of family values in the PRIDE campaigns that generate message relevance with the target audiences. This study supported that a family-oriented message is able to frame the campaign to generate message relevance and subsequent behavioral changes among Chinese stakeholders.

This chapter takes as its starting point the dedication at the front of Lois McMaster Bujold’s novel A Civil Campaign: ‘For Jane, Charlotte, Georgette and Dorothy—long may they rule’, arguing that the dedication places the novel in conversation with the authors whom Bujold invokes. This allows the chapter to explore this intertextuality through thematic convergences shared between Jane Austen’s Fanny Price of Mansfield Park and Bujold’s Ekaterin Vorsoisson. These themes include: the ambivalent occupation of and transitions between exterior and interior spaces they occupy; on and offstage performances; the significance of gifts of jewelry; the imposition of familial bonds; and the intertwined experience of health and honor. Despite their often ambivalent reception, the chapter argues, Fanny and Ekaterin are integral components of their respective works; central characters in their standalone and series novels.

The introduction chapter presents the lens of the book, providing the author’s unique vantage point as documentary producer, strategist, and scholar. It opens with a first-person narrative reflection from 2005, launching the book from her experience co-producing the advocacy documentary film, Wal-Mart: The High Cost of Low Price, with Brave New Films, which premiered alongside a national grassroots mobilization campaign. This chapter provides foundational definitions of documentary and an original articulation of shared characteristics of social-issue documentary storytelling in the networked era: editorial independence, commitment to truth, civic motivation, and entertainment value. This introductory chapter locates documentary within the contemporary networked media era, the backdrop of community-based activism and public engagement that happens in concert with many nonfiction stories. It culminates with a roadmap overview of the book, chapter by chapter.

Decision makers thirst for answers to questions. As more data is gathered, more questions are posed: Which customers are most likely to respond positively to a marketing campaign, product price change or new product offering? How will the competition react? Which loan applicants are most likely or least likely to default? The ability to raise questions, even those that currently cannot be answered, is a characteristic of a good decision maker. Decision makers no longer have the luxury of making decisions based on gut feeling or intuition. Decisions must be supported by data; otherwise decision makers can expect to be questioned by stockholders, reporters, or attorneys in a court of law. Data mining can support and often direct decision makers in ways that are often counterintuitive. Although data mining can provide considerable insight, there is an “inherent risk that what might be inferred may be private or ethically sensitive” (Fule & Roddick, 2004, p. 159).

The need for energy efficiency captured the attention of all sectors of our society in the 1970s when energy supplies dwindled and prices increased. Interest in energy efficiency continued during the 1980s primarily due to environmental concerns and secondarily because of economic and industrial competitiveness issues. Energy supply disruptions caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and recent hikes in energy prices have generated a renewed interest in energy efficiency. An example of this renewed interest is that the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiated, developed, and implemented a national campaign to save energy now in 2006. In the past, the industrial sector has responded to energy shortages and its price increases with varying effectiveness, but small and medium-sized plants generally lacked the resources to cope effectively. One of the U. S. government’s responses to this situation was to offer these small and medium-sized plants technical assistance such as Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) program. One such center was established at Bradley University in 1993. Since its inception, the Bradley University Industrial Assessment Center (BU IAC) has functioned very successfully. Periodically BU IAC has been doing an in-house critical review of its performance and effectiveness. These reviews included outcomes such as total assessment recommendations, (ARs); diversity of ARs; quantifications of identified opportunities to save energy, minimize waste, and enhance productivity; implementation rates analysis; and impacts on energy engineering education. The purpose of this paper is to describe the impacts of the Industrial Assessment Center program on energy engineering education. The impacts on employment, salaries, and job performance of BU IAC graduates are discussed in this paper. The impacts of the BU IAC in improving the quality of in-class instruction by its Director(s) are explained in this paper.

Most of the developed countries have implemented new principles of public sector reform – new approaches to the management of the public sector. A major feature of the new public management (NPM) is the introduction of market type mechanisms (MTM) to the running of public service organizations: the marketization of the public service. The marketization of public services aims at a continuous increase in public expenditure efficiency, continual improvements in public services quality, the implementation of the professional management tools in the public sector, and last but not least, charge for public services. Price of public services in mainstream economics theory is connected with preference revelation problem. Economic models explain the relationship between consumer behavior (revealed preferences) and the value of public goods, and thus determine the value of the goods themselves. The aim of the paper is to determine the success of the community model of public service delivery based on the demonstrated preferences of individuals in the consumption of public services / public goods. The direct way of determining the preferences of individuals was used in this paper (willigness to pay and willigness to accept). These preferences will be identified based on the crowdfunding campaign as an example of community model of public goods provision by using survey experiment method. The willingness of individuals to pay is dependent on the individual's relationship with the organisation, the organisation's employees, or sympathise with those for whom the collection is, for whom the project is designed.

Abstract First E&P commenced her development drilling campaign in the ALA field with a set of four batch wells (ALA west Phase 1A). Casing design and well architecture for the four wells were determined using standard design software, as the field had significant appraisal activities. However, actual drilling of the top-hole section on the four wells were very challenging such that, only in one of the four wells was the surface casing successfully run to depth and cemented as planned. Issues encountered included but not limited to: Trouble drilling through very reactive gumbo clay. Trouble pulling out of hole drilling BHA. Trouble running surface casing through long section of reactive clay causing stuck pipe (Casing got stuck while running in hole). Although, a leading contribution to getting stuck was differential sticking which can be attributed to not being able to run the casing with centralizers installed (bow spring centralizers) because they got hung up at the conductor shoe which was a buckled at the shoe due to piling effects. As a result, this study was carried out to investigate the possibility of mitigating the identified challenges, while optimizing the drilling of the top holes to improve casing and cementing operations. A starting point was to estimate the theoretical minimum casing setting depth. Using a Pressure Balance method, calculations were made to derive a mathematical model for the kick tolerance. The kick tolerance requirements were then derived in line with company policy and pore/fracture pressure information from offset wells and studies data (MDT & LOT) to arrive at the minimum casing setting depth. A second mathematical model based on limited gas kick model load case was also derived from pressure balance calculations, to estimate casing internal pressure profile when a gas bubble reaches surface during well control circulation using drillers method. A realistic criterion for estimating burst load, consistent with the definition of kick tolerance, was then proposed, to optimize the casing design. The study estimated cost savings of up to $1 million/well could be realized. The approach confirms huge cost savings can be realized by optimizing casing setting depths, and that illustrates the impact of safety factors. The depth proposals from this study were like the depths planned for the new drilling campaign of phase 1A+ wells, the result of actual drilling of the phase 1A+ wells (ALA-5 & ALA-6) confirmed the following, Surface holes in ALA field can be drilled to shallower depths. This may have shortened the time to run the casing to depth given historical challenges. The actual depths of the surface casings are like the depth proposed by this study. Problems of drilling with water-based mud can be mitigated if drilling intervals are short. A price comparison of top-hole actual drilling and running casing of ALA-3 a phase 1 well and ALA-5 & 6 phase 1A+ wells showed significant cost saving estimated above $1 million. This is like the cost saving estimated from the initial study. The surface hole drilled total depth and casing shoe depth on the phase 1A+ wells confirmed the pre-drill kick tolerance estimated in the study for these depths in the phase 1A+ wells.

One of the most technically challenging reactor decommissioning projects in the UK, if not the world, is being tackled in a new way managed by a team lead by the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority. Windscale Pile 1, a graphite moderated, air cooled, horizontal, natural uranium fuelled reactor was damaged by fire in October 1957. De-fuelling, initial clean-up and isolation operations were carried out in the 1960’s. During the 1980’s and 90’s a successful Phase1 decommissioning campaign resulted in the plant being cleared of all accessible fuel and graphite debris and it being sealed and isolated from associated facilities and put on a monitoring and surveillance regime while plans for dismantling were being developed. For years intrusive inspection of the fire damaged region has been precluded on safety grounds. Consequently early plans for dismantling were constructed using pessimistic assumptions and worst case predictions. This in turn lead to technical, financial and regulatory hurdles which were found to be too high to overcome. The new approach utilises the best from several areas: • The design process incorporates principles of the US DoE safety analysis process to address safety, and adds further key stages of design concept and detail to generate concurrent development of a technical solution and a safety case. • A staged and gated Project Management Process provides for stakeholder involvement and consensus at key stages. • Targeted knowledge acquisition is used to minimise uncertainty. • A stepwise approach to intrusive surveys is employed to systematically increase confidence. The result is a process which yields the optimum solution in terms of safety, environmental impact, technical feasibility, political acceptability and affordability. The change from previous approaches is that the project starts from the hazards and associated hazard management strategies, through engineering concept, to design manufacture and testing of the resulting solution rather than starting with the engineer’s “good idea” and then trying to make it work, safely and at an affordable price. Progress has been made in making the intrusive survey work a reality. This is a significant step in building a realistic picture of the physical and radiological state of the core and in building confidence in the process.

Abstract This paper describes the innovative engineering workflow which has been used to ensure the safe deployment of deep production liners on long step-out wells of a deep offshore development field. It highlights the importance of accurate Torque & Drag modelling during planning and operations and provides details on how the use of downhole data assisted in understanding downhole conditions on the first wells, which allowed to optimize the running and setting procedure for the next wells of the field. For this methodology, a unique Torque & Drag stiff-string model was used to simulate the evolution of side-forces, tension, stretch, torque and twist along the string at every stage of the deployment and setting of the liner. Simulations were performed both during planning phase and operations. Once the well completed, downhole memory data from a logging tool was compared with simulations, which allowed to calibrate the model, better understand downhole conditions, and provide recommendations for the next runs. Using this methodology, the operator succeeded in deploying the liner to total depth, setting the hanger and packer successfully on all the wells of the field. These operations were performed with only 40 minutes of non-productive time throughout the campaign. The paper shows how correlating downhole data with Torque & Drag simulations highlighted areas of improvement and allowed to optimize the running and setting procedure of the liner. It also led the operator to gain confidence in the feasibility of such critical operations even on the more challenging wells. Detailed engineering and collaboration were key to this success. Such methodology can be applied on every well where weight transfer is a potential issue. As the industry is heading towards digitalization and automation, this case study is a prime example which demonstrates the added value of combining advanced physics-based simulations with time based downhole data.

Abstract Successful Wellbore Clean Up (WBCU) operation is one of the key aspects in delivering a high productivity well. Conventionally, in this phase, a series of surfactant and solvent pill is circulated downhole to "clean" the well. Poor job execution at this stage usually will result to tremendous amount of time to clean out the well or worst leaving the well with a "dirty" brine. Eventually this will lead to impairment in the well productivity. The Operator experienced strings of non-performance in their WBCU operation. This is reflected by extensive circulation time and poor quality of the brine downhole. Coupled with pressing low crude oil price, the Upstream business of the Operator collaborated with their Downstream counterpart to co-create their own in house, low cost and high performance WBCU chemicals. Not only that the new chemicals resolved the operational issues faced by the Operator, it also created significant values within the company itself. The paper will discuss the process and implementation of the novel WBCU materials within the Operator's operation. The performance of a WBCU surfactant is measured by its effectiveness in cleaning various types of downhole residues as fast as possible. The design of the new WBCU surfactant hinges on these criteria. In the lab, the performance of the material is measured using a "cleaning efficiency" test at different drilling fluids densities and WBCU formulations. Series of iterations were performed to determine the best chemistry for the WBCU surfactant. Finally, a field trial was conducted in one of the Operator's well, Well T-2 to gauge the product's performance in the real environment. The field trial in well T-2 was successful in achieving a cleaner brine at a rate faster than well T-1, a similar well of the same campaign. Well T-1 used a conventional surfactant and solvent product in the current market. The WBCU used in well T-2 managed to reduce the final NTU of the brine up to 45% as compared to final NTU observed in well T-1. A reduction in the operation hours up to 4 hours was also seen in well T-2. This has contributed to cost savings in rig time up to USD 75K. The successful performance delivery of the Operator's in-house products has showcased a fruitful collaboration between different workstreams within the Operator. Deep understanding in the chemistry of solvent and surfactant from the Downstream business helps to solve the pain points by the Upstream business. Insights on product performance and applications are transpired within the team to innovate a solution with better performance at lower cost. This has paves way for more opportunities in product development especially in specialty chemicals.

Abstract This paper showcases the tailored initiatives undertaken in a different economic climate in view of low oil price in maturing and capturing potential development opportunities for a large-sized, brownfield asset. The subject field is mature, having over 250 wells with over 20 years of production history and approaching its end of economic life. The study emphasized pursuit of a fast and cost-effective approach in identification of several potential behind-casing recompletion opportunities in addition to multiple infill drilling opportunities. From well log observation to seismic interpretation, and from material balance to simulation modeling, the approaches utilized were tailored based on the level of reservoir complexities. Lower cost, lower risk, behind pipe opportunities had previously not been a focus or thoroughly assessed since the company had focused on infill drilling opportunities. A robust execution plan, minimizing rig moves, was also prepared to synergize the ongoing and planned infill drilling campaigns in the field. An infill drilling well proposal was approved as part of the 2014 Field Development Plan (FDP) update with regulators. This plan was subsequently deferred due to drop in oil price resulting lower economics. However, with the field approaching the end of its economic producing life, a revisit of potential opportunities was conducted by a multi-disciplinary team. Results of the more recent opportunities identification and successful drilling campaigns have revived the proposal for the infill well given the synergies with rig utilization. The team went through a simplified governance process on the FDP, revisiting the simulation model and proposed to drill a horizontal infill production well instead of dual-string deviated well (originally envisioned for long string as an infill producer in the target reservoir and short string completed as a water injector in a different reservoir). Due to further well performance analysis, injection support on the other reservoir was no longer deemed necessary. The team analysis for arriving at this optimization as well as the behind-casing recompletion opportunities will be shared in this paper. This is a case study on how assimilated and innovative approaches undertaken in a different economic climate can be crucial to accelerate a brownfield re-development to extend the economic life of a mature producing field. A multi-disciplinary team applied creative thinking and cooperative efforts to a mature field to revive economic viability. Revisiting previously identified opportunities in the context of a low oil price environment and a simplified regulatory governance process, cross functional and cooperative technical and financial team work were important in facilitating timely decisions needed to move forward. A similar approach will be undertaken for future work in other fields.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.