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Livros sobre o tema "Exogenous shock"

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Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 23 de junho de 2021

Última modificação: 11 de fevereiro de 2022

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1

Anwar, Sajid. Exogenous shocks and exchange rate management in developing countries. Lahore: Centre for Management and Economic Research, Lahore University of Management Sciences, 2005.

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2

Khan, Mohsin S. Exchange rate responses to exogenous shocks in developing countries. [s.l.]: World Bank, 1986.

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3

Pagan, Adrian. On econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks and exogenous variables. Bonn, Germany: IZA, 2007.

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4

Fund, International Monetary. Dynamic responses to policy and exogenous shocks in an empirical developing-country model with rational expectations. Washington, D.C: International Monetary Fund, 1990.

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5

Zervoyianni, Athina. Product-market openness and dynamic responses to exogenous shocks and policies in a two-country, two-goods model. Hull: University of Hull. Department of Economics, 1994.

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6

Conway, Patrick Joseph. The interaction of government and private-sector responses to an exogenous economic shock: Turkey after 1973. 1987.

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7

Dioun, Cyrus. Making the Medical Marijuana Market. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198794974.003.0009.

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How did entrepreneurs and activists establish medical marijuana markets in the United States despite more than a half-century of social stigma and state prohibition? In this chapter, I draw upon interviews with medical marijuana market pioneers to show how an exogenous shock and endogenous actors laid the foundation for a multi-billion dollar industry. Interviews suggest that the death and devastation of the AIDS epidemic compelled value-rational entrepreneurs to openly defy the law and build informal market institutions, such as organizational forms and rules of exchange, to supply marijuana to AIDS patients. Market proponents legitimized and legalized these informal institutions by deploying strategic frames portraying marijuana as a compassionate palliative for the dying and by passing ballot initiatives allowing medical marijuana use, first in San Francisco (1991) and then in California (1996).

8

Hellwig, Timothy, Yesola Kweon e Jack Vowles. Democracy Under Siege? Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198846208.001.0001.

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For the worlds democracies, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–9 was catalyst for the most precipitous economic downturn in eight decades. This book examines how the GFC and ensuing Great Recession affected the workings of mass politics in the established democracies. The initial wave of research on the crisis concluded it did little to change the established relationships between voters, parties, and elections. Yet, nearly a decade since the initial shock, we are witnessing a wave of political changes, the extent to which has not been fully explained by existing studies. How did the economic malaise bear on the political preferences of citizens? This book pushes against the received wisdom by advancing a framework for understanding citizen attitudes, preferences, and behaviour. We make two main claims. First, while previous studies of the GFC tend to focus on an immediate impact of the crisis, we argue that economic malaise had a long-lasting impact. In addition to economic shock, we emphasize that economic recovery has a significant impact on citizens assessment of political elites. Second, we argue that unanticipated exogenous shocks like the GFC grant party elites an opening for political manoeuvre through public policy and rhetoric. As a result, political elites have a high degree of agency to shape public perceptions and behaviour. Political parties can strategically moderate citizens economic uncertainty, mobilize/demobilize voters, and alter individuals political preferences. By leveraging data from over 150,000 individuals across over 100 nationally representative post-election surveys from the 1990s to 2017, this book tests these research claims across a range of outcomes, including economic perceptions, policy demands, political participation, and the vote.

9

Markowitz, Jonathan N. Perils of Plenty. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190078249.001.0001.

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Why do some states project military force to seek control of resources, while others do not? Conventional wisdom asserts that resource-scarce states have the strongest interest in securing control over resources. Counterintuitively, this book finds that, under certain conditions, the opposite is true. Perils of Plenty argues that what states make influences what they want to take. Specifically, the more economically dependent states are on extracting income from resource rents, the stronger their preferences to secure control over resources will be. This theory is tested with a set of case studies analyzing states’ reactions to the 2007 exogenous climate shock that exposed energy resources in the Arctic. This book finds that some states, such as Russia and Norway, responded to the shock by dramatically increasing their Arctic military presence, while others, such as the United States, Canada, and Denmark, did not. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, countries with plentiful natural resources, such as Norway and Russia, were more—not less—willing to back their claims by projecting military force. This book finds that plenty can actually lead to peril when states with plentiful resources become economically dependent on those resources and thus have stronger incentives to secure their control. These findings have implications for understanding both the political effects of climate change in the Arctic and the prospects for resource competition in other regions, such as the Middle East and the South China Sea

10

Quality and production control with opportunities and exogenous random shocks. Ankara Turkey: Bilkent University, 2005.

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11

Fund, International Monetary, ed. Exogenous shocks, deposit runs and bank soundness: A macroeconomic framework. Washington, D.C: International Monetary Fund, 1997.

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12

Zucco, Cesar, e Daniela Campello. Volatility Curse: Exogenous Shocks and Representation in Resource-Rich Democracies. University of Cambridge ESOL Examinations, 2020.

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13

Cororaton, Caesar B., e David S. Knight. The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific: A Micro-Simulation Analysis. The World Bank, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7046.

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14

Bou-Habib, Chadi, e Ephraim Kebede. Democratic Republic of Congo: Product and Market Concentration and the Vulnerability to Exogenous Shocks. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7700.

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15

Valiante, Diego. CMU and the Deepening of Financial Integration. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198813392.003.0002.

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The integration of capital markets in the EU is a long-term and complex task that is far from being completed. A comparative analysis with capital markets integration and development in the United States can offer insights on how the EU can develop its policy framework to achieve a single market for capital. This chapter begins with a brief review of the history of European financial integration policies since its inception in 1957. It then illustrates how capital markets can provide significant risk absorption against exogenous shocks. Finally, it presents a brief overview of the United States' economic history between 1860s and 1930s. Analogies can be found with the European financial integration process, as well as benchmarks to identify areas where European policies can do more to promote a Single Market for capital.

16

Radaev, Vadim. A Crooked Mirror. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198794974.003.0012.

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The study examines the evolution of heterogeneous illegal markets, including markets for homemade alcohol, counterfeit alcohol, and illegally manufactured alcohol in Russia. A variety of statistical sources and survey data is used to demonstrate that the compositions of these markets have come through four different stages since late socialism, depending on the constellation of political, legislative, and economic factors. At each stage, some of these markets prevail, whereas others remain undeveloped. Overall, illegal alcohol markets tend to grow in periods of exogenous political or economic shocks and shrink in periods of economic growth. Changes in the structure of illegal markets are backed by a continuous requalification of products, organizations, and transactions contesting the boundaries between legality and illegality. Some illegal activities retain their legitimacy due to the ignorance or tolerance of enforcement agencies and final consumers.

17

Portillo, Rafael, Filiz Unsal, Stephen O’Connell e Catherine Pattillo. Implementation Errors and Incomplete Information. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198785811.003.0009.

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This chapter shows that limited effects of monetary policy can reflect shortcomings of existing policy frameworks in low-income countries rather than (or in addition to) the structural features often put forward in policy and academic debates. The chapter focuses on two pervasive issues: lack of effective frameworks for implementing policy, so that short-term interest rates display considerable unintended volatility, and poor communication about policy intent. The authors introduce these features into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model with incomplete information. Implementation errors result from insufficient accommodation to money demand shocks, creating a noisy wedge between actual and intended interest rates. The representative private agent must then infer policy intentions from movements in interest rates and money. Under these conditions, even exogenous and persistent changes in the stance of monetary policy can have weak effects, even when the underlying transmission (as might be observed under complete information) is strong.

18

Bouët, Antoine, Getaw Tadesse e Chahir Zaki, eds. Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2021. AKADEMIYA2063, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.54067/9781737916406.

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African countries have diversified both their exports and trade partners over the last decade, African agricultural trade still suffers from structural problems as well as exogenous shocks. Against this backdrop, the 2021 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) analyzes continental and regional trends in African agricultural trade flows and policies. The report finds that many African countries continue to enjoy the most success in global markets with cash crops and niche products. At the intra-African level, countries are becoming more interconnected in trade of key commodities, but there remain many potential but unexploited trade relationships. The report examines the livestock sector in detail, finding that despite its important role in Africa, the sector is concentrated in low value- added products that are informally traded. The report also examines trade integration in the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), which remains limited due to factors including tariffs, nontariff measures, poor transport infrastructure, and weak institutions. Finally, the report discusses the implications of two major events affecting African trade in 2020 and 2021: the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

19

Huffaker, Ray, Marco Bittelli e Rodolfo Rosa. Entropy and Surrogate Testing. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198782933.003.0005.

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Reconstructing real-world system dynamics from time series data on a single variable is challenging because real-world data often exhibit a highly volatile and irregular appearance potentially driven by several diverse factors. NLTS methods help eliminate less likely drivers of dynamic irregularity. We set a benchmark for regular behavior by investigating how linear systems of ODEs are restricted to exponential and periodic dynamics, and illustrating how irregular behavior can arise if regular linear dynamics are corrupted with noise or shift over time (i.e., nonstationarity). We investigate how data can be pre-processed to control for the noise and nonstationarity potentially camouflaging nonlinear deterministic drivers of observed complexity. We can apply signal-detection methods, such as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), to separate signal from noise in the data, and test the signal for nonstationarity potentially corrected with SSA. SSA measures signal strength which provides a useful initial indicator of whether we should continue searching for endogenous nonlinear drivers of complexity. We begin diagnosing deterministic structure in an isolated signal by attempting to reconstructed a shadow attractor. Finally, we use the classic Lorenz equations to illustrate how a deterministic nonlinear system of ODEs with at least three equations can generate observed irregular dynamics endogenously without aid of exogenous shocks or nonstationary dynamics.