Teses / dissertações sobre o tema "Exogenous shock"

This paper investigates the relationship between vacant job positions and unemployed workers, illustrated by the Beveridge curve, a tool for observing the matching process and the condition of a labour market. The Swedish case is studied together with its three largest labour market regions, i.e., Stockholm-, Västra Götaland- and Skåne county. A comparison opens up a discussion of whether local labour markets with similar characteristics located in different parts of the country behave similarly or in what way they distinguish. Furthermore, these three regions are expected to influence the Swedish Beveridge curve to a larger extent, which is also examined in the paper. In addition, the effect of an exogenous shock, such as the building of the Öresund Bridge, expanding the labour market of Skåne county by connection to another metropolitan area, Copenhagen, is studied. This is done by comparing the matching efficiency before and after the bridge is opened. Moreover, the effect in Skåne is then analysed in accordance with the same period for the other regions included, to get an indication of whether the bridge alone provides a change in matching efficiency or if changes are connected to national events that influence all regions similarly.  The analysis is based on monthly data from year 1996-2020, collected from the Swedish Public Employment service and Statistics Sweden, primarily. Graphical illustrations of the Beveridge curve in combination with OLS regressions provide concluding results that the Beveridge curves for the three regional labour markets observed are shaped rather similarly and experience shifts and movements during the same time points, generally. Skåne county is the exception and experience more horizontal and vertical movements compared to Stockholm- and Västra Götaland county and the Swedish average. Furthermore, there are statistically significant estimates ensuring the negative relationship between unemployment- and vacancy rate, i.e., a downward sloping Beveridge curve for all regions. Not enough evidence on the effect of the Öresund Bridge on the matching efficiency of Skåne county is provided to present a valid conclusion regarding this topic.

Using a quasi-experimental approach, this study analyses the effects of a specific exogenous shock on ethnic discrimination in Sweden by treating the terror attacks of 2015 in Paris as a natural experiment. Our research is based on cross-sectional survey data published by the European Social Survey (ESS). Slightly deviating from the traditional analytical approach, we observe individuals’ perception of being discriminated against rather than factual discrimination, thus contributing by analysing a common topic from a different perspective. We find that immigrants generally have a higher probability of perceiving themselves as discriminated against compared to natives. Subsequently, the probability increases further for Middle Eastern immigrants, females and for those who have experienced unemployment for at least three months.  When implementing a Difference-in-Difference method we find that average differences in perceived discrimination between immigrants and natives, but also between males and females, had increased after the terror attacks in Paris. Contrary to our expectations, our results indicate that Middle Eastern immigrants did not feel more discriminated after the terror attacks. However, the perception of being discriminated against is indicated to have increased for men. Nonetheless, in absence of statistically significant treatment effects we cannot conclude a relationship between the changes in average differences and the exogenous shock, suggesting that that the changes might be attributed to other factors.

Business models (BMs) represent a firm’s strategic and operational choices to create solutions and extract value from targeted markets. BMs were therefore required to have an inherent adaptive ability for changes to the business environment. Exogenous supply-side shocks often led to broad and non-uniform changes to target markets and supply-chains, and therefore impacted firm BMs. This research effort examined factors that influenced business model change (BMC) in response to the exogenous and supply-side oriented Covid crisis. In doing so, it sought to expand the range of explanatory factors for firm BMC responses to crises. The research responded to academic calls to broaden the BM literature with empirical research using BMC as the dependent variable and for further research on BMC responses to crises. Using the population of JSE-listed companies, the research applied a quantitative approach that examined BMC relationships with (a) the persistence of the Covid shock, (b) reductions in income of primary customers, and (c) pre-Covid increases in inventory levels. In the context of the research setting, the research found statistically significant support for the positive linkage of firm BMC with the persistence of the Covid shock, both on a standalone basis and when combined with the reductions in customer incomes. The research findings therefore contributed to the developing literature on firm BMC responses to crisis conditions.
Mini Dissertation (MPhil)--University of Pretoria, 2020.
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
MPhil
Unrestricted

The subject of this study is the influence of favourable exogenous shocks on the structure of prices and output composition in small open economies. The study is based, theoretically, on the Dutch Disease theory; and, empirically, on research conducted on Jordan. Under general equilibrium conditions, a boom in a traded sector is likely to produce a contraction of output and employment in non-booming traded sectors - de-industrialisation. This is the essence of the Dutch disease theory, its conclusions valid only within its particular set of assumptions about factor-market underpinnings of the model, including macro-equilibrium and full employment, fixed national stock of labour and capital, and perfect capital markets; and unchanging technical conditions of production. Furthermore, changes in the structure of demand that underlie the process of industrialisation are ignored, as the model assumes growth, other than that generated by the windfall gain, away. The present study contests this analytical approach, and offers an alternative that considers initial conditions of disequilibrium and conducts dynamic analysis to show the effects of demand expansion, with its disproportionately large stimulus to manufacturing, on these conditions. Demand-led output growth combined with supply-side changes induced by booming conditions leads to rapid productivity growth in manufacturing, by both increasing production efficiency and inducing technological advance. The outcome of these inter-linked supply-demand changes is an acceleration of industrialisation. The study thus presents an antithesis to the Dutch disease hypothesis. After an overview of the Dutch disease theory, the study discusses the necessary modifications when certain characteristics of industrialising economies are taken into consideration. The focus of the analysis is the Dutch disease theory's assumptions, its level of abstraction, and the static nature of its analysis. Various countries' experience of booms are presented to show that the outcome of sectoral shifts is crucially dependent on the pre-boom economic conditions; and thus to show also that boom experiences of industrial and industrialising economies differ considerably. The discussion of Jordan starts by outlining that country's historical experience of sectoral shifts. The counterfactual to the Dutch disease is established with the aid of trend analysis, and it is shown that at the end of the boom, the share in aggregate output of agriculture was smaller, and that of manufacturing larger, than 'expected' from historical trends. Dutch disease analysis is used to show that resource mobility and the spending effect have induced currency appreciation, as would have been predicted by the theory. Contrary to the theory's predictions, however, the examination of the commodity trade balance reveals significant growth in agricultural and manufacturing exports during the boom. The study then examines the reasons behind the discrepancy between the theory and this empirical observation. The performance of agriculture and manufacturing are examined separately. In both sectors booming conditions brought about rapid technological advance which expanded profits in these sectors. In addition, the disproportionately large demand for manufactured goods, both for consumption and investment, led to a rapid expansion of this sector's share in aggregate output; which was compensated for by a decline in that of agriculture. Seen in this light, the decline in the share of agriculture was a manifestation of successful industrialisation, rather than the Dutch disease effect.

Bibliography: pages 53-56.
The main objective of this paper is to discuss exchange rate policies in Botswana from 1976 to 1994. It is also an attempt to find out how Botswana has responded to exogenous shocks and whether such responses could be used in the future when shocks recur. The paper contends that Botswana's record in responding to shocks has been impressive. This is not to say that previous policy actions in response to shocks would be adequate when shocks occur again. Experience shows that it is difficult to respond to exogenous shocks when they take time to subside.

Esta tese é composta por três artigos que exploram a relação entre estrutura de capital e o setor. A literatura traz evidências que as firmas consideram as ações e decisões de seus pares competidores para tomar suas próprias decisões e que dentro deste ambiente elas podem ter estruturas de capital homogêneas. O objetivo geral é encontrar evidências que fatores relacionados ao setor são relevantes na determinação da estrutura de capital das firmas brasileiras. A contribuição está na busca pelos motivos que explicam esta influência e se os padrões do setor são importantes para as empresas brasileiras, como têm se mostrado para dados de empresas americanas. Esta tese se justifica por contribuir diretamente com as pesquisas que buscam avançar na compreensão de como os fatores relacionados ao setor vão afetar a estrutura de capital das firmas, sem desconsiderar os fatores internos. O primeiro capítulo é um artigo teórico que revisa os artigos publicados sobre o papel do endividamento nas relações intrasetor, competição e Organização Industrial. A relação da alavancagem com desempenho e sobrevivência é um dos temas principais. Os estudos revisados mostram que muitas vezes a firma endividada vai ter pior desempenho no mercado devido ao comportamento predatório das rivais. Não há consenso sobre o comportamento da firma endividada, existem autores que acreditam no comportamento mais agressivo, outros no comportamento mais conservador, assim como a falência de uma firma no setor pode trazer resultados positivos ou negativos para as demais. O segundo capítulo é um artigo empírico que utiliza as alterações de IPI realizadas pelo governo brasileiro como choques exógenos na relação entre alavancagem da firma e do setor. Foram utilizados dados de empresas brasileiras entre 2007-2015. O modelo econométrico utilizado foi o diff-in-diff-in-diff. Os resultados mostram uma relação positiva entre a alavancagem média do setor e da firma, relação esta que se mantém para o grupo de tratamento após a inclusão do choque exógeno de redução do IPI no modelo. Estes resultados se alinham com trabalhos que colocam o setor no centro dos aspectos influenciadores da estrutura de capital da firma. O terceiro e último capítulo também é um artigo empírico onde, em um modelo de ajustamento parcial, a relação entre oportunidades de crescimento de uma firma, quando maiores que as oportunidades de crescimento do setor, vão representar possíveis choques exógenos idiossincráticos recebidos por ela. Foram utilizados dados de empresas brasileiras entre 1995-2016. Os resultados principais confirmam que existe uma relação negativa, se há aumento da razão das oportunidades de crescimento da firma i em relação às oportunidades de crescimento do seu setor j, seus indicadores de alavancagem serão reduzidos, se houver queda na razão das oportunidades de crescimento, haverá aumento da alavancagem. Estes resultados estão ligados a trabalhos que afirmam que empresas com maiores oportunidades de investimento são mais eficientes, tem maior lucratividade e vão procurar manter níveis mais baixos de alavancagem e à Teoria da Agência quando demonstra que as firmas com baixas oportunidades de investimento usam o aumento da dívida como forma de controle dos gerentes.
This doctoral dissertation is composed of three papers that explore the relationship between capital structure and the Industry. Literature brings evidence that firms consider the actions and decisions of their competing peers to make their own decisions and they may have homogenous capital structures. The primary objective is to find evidence that industry factors are relevant in determining the capital structure of Brazilian firms. The study contribution is clarifying the reasons for this influence and answering if the industry\'s standards are important for the Brazilian companies as they have been as shown for the data of American companies. This dissertation is justified by contributing to the researches that advance in the understanding of how the industry\'s factors will affect the capital structure of the firms, without disregarding the internal factors. The first chapter is a theoretical article that reviews papers about the role of debt in the intraindustry relations, competition and Industrial Organization. The relationship of leverage with performance and survival is one of the main themes. The reviewed studies show that often the indebted firm will poorly perform on the market due to the predatory behavior of rivals. There is no consensus about the behavior of the indebted firm, there are authors who believe in more others in less aggressive behavior, as well as the bankruptcy of one firm in the industry can bring positive or negative results to others. The second chapter is an empirical investigation that uses IPI benefits (tax benefit) offered by the Brazilian government as an exogenous shock in the relationship between firm and industry leverage. We used data from Brazilian companies between 2007 and 2015. The econometric model used was diff-in-diff-in-diff. The results show a direct relationship between the mean industry leverage and the firm\'s leverage. The same remains for the treatment group after inclusion of exogenous shock of IPI reduction in the model. These results are aligned with studies that consider the industry as the principal influencing aspect of the firm\'s capital structure. The third and final chapter is also an empirical investigation using a partial adjustment model. The relationship between a firm\'s growth opportunities, when larger than the industry\'s growth opportunities, will represent possible received idiosyncratic exogenous shock. The Data is from Brazilian companies between 1995 and 2016. The main results confirm that there is an inverse relationship. If the ratio of growth opportunities of firm i compared with the growth opportunities of its industry j increase, than its leverage indicators will be reduced. If there is a decrease in the growth opportunities, than there will be increased leverage. These results are related to papers that show companies with greater investment opportunities are more efficient, have higher profitability and will try to maintain lower levels of leverage. These results are also related to Agency Theory, when it demonstrates that firms with low investment opportunities use the increase debt as a managerial control tool.

The interest in the use of fiscal policy as an effective economic policy tool has been revived recently, since the global recession of 2008 hit the world. In spite of a large empirical literature, there remains substantial uncertainty about the size and even the direction of the effects of discretionary fiscal policy. This thesis seeks to investigate the macroeconomic effects of discretionary fiscal policy in the short term, highlighting several methodologies for identifying discretionary fiscal policy. In Chapters 2 and 3, we suggest a new instrument based on the narrative approach for identifying exogenous government spending shocks: natural disaster damages and the subsequent government emergency spending. While applying our methodology to the Korean and the U.S data, we find that our instrument is not only powerful but also superior to military build-ups used by most of the literature. The relief expenditure in the wake of natural disaster has several advantages such as the similarity in scope to general government activity and the easy applicability beyond the U.S. compared to military build-ups. In the analysis of Korean fiscal policy, using our narrative method and the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, we find that government spending shocks increase GDP, consumption, and real wage, which is in line with the New Keynesian model. We also find that the timing is crucial in identifying government spending shocks due to the anticipation effects of fiscal policy. Furthermore, while analyzing the U.S. fiscal policy both at the state as well as national level, we estimate two kinds of non-defense spending multipliers: federal (1.4~1.7) and state (1.5~2.5), which exceed the defense spending multiplier obtained in the literature using military building-ups. In Chapter 4, in regard to the study of effects of fiscal adjustment, we develop the approach based on changes in cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) by including fluctuations of asset price in the CAPB measure and allowing for individual country heterogeneity in the definition of fiscal adjustment. Using our new CAPB in 20 OECD countries, we find that fiscal adjustments have contractionary effects on economic activity in the short term, which is consistent with the result based on the narrative approach. Nevertheless, our results suggest that fiscal adjustments that rely predominantly on spending cuts are less contractionary than those involving tax increases.

Magister Commercii - MCom
Diversification is one of the more familiar concepts in finance because of its ability to curtail risk towards investors. However, for diversification to be efficient, the assets combined should have inversely related price movements. In the same light, previous research done on international portfolio diversification has consistently found that having investments diversified across different global markets that have low to medium correlations helps to get as close to an optimal portfolio as possible. However, previous research also indicates that both global financial integration and exogenous shocks increase correlations among international markets, hence negating the benefits of international portfolio diversification to an extent. Therefore, with global integration on the rise, coupled with economic and political instability in some BRICS nations, the research examines these factors and gauges the current viability of international portfolio diversification from the perspective of a South African investor.

The world is in constant change, technology is evolving fast and, for that reason, organizations need to rapidly adapt and implement change in order to survive in this highly dynamic and competitive environment. Scholars have been investigating the reasons for strategic change and what are the capabilities that a firm needs to have in order to survive in an ever-changing world. In order to better illustrate these theories with a real-life example, I selected the case of Volkswagen and its late adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs). The VW e-Race case intends to demonstrate how unprecedented change in the automotive industry impacted the German car maker. The company has been one of the leaders in diesel cars, but in what concerns the EVs’ business they seem to be getting behind their competitors. Volkswagen had a slow and weak entry in the EVs’ business with only two models being launched until 2018. Nonetheless, its diesel crisis, in late 2015, pressured them to re-organize the company’s strategy around electric cars. This case clearly demonstrates how, sometimes a firm needs to pass through a crisis in order to implement change. Moreover, it shows the relevance of organizational change and dynamic capabilities, for a company to sustain a competitive advantage in a changing environment.
O mundo está em constante mudança, a tecnologia está a evoluir rapidamente e, por essa razão, as empresas precisam de se adaptar rapidamente e implementar mudanças de forma a sobreviverem num ambiente dinâmico e competitivo. Os investigadores têm vindo a procurar as razões para a mudança estratégica e quais as capacidades que uma empresa precisa de ter de forma a sobreviver num mundo em constante mudança. Para melhor demonstrar estas teorias com um caso real, selecionei a Volkswagen e a sua adoção tardia dos carros elétricos. O caso VW e-Race pretende mostrar como a mudança sem precedentes na indústria automóvel influenciou o fabricante alemão. A Empresa tem sido um dos líderes nos carros a diesel, mas no que diz respeito aos carros elétricos, parece estar a ficar atrás dos seus competidores. A Volkswagen teve uma entrada fraca e lenta no negócio dos carros elétricos, com apenas dois modelos a serem lançados até 2018. No entanto, a crise que enfrentou no diesel, no final de 2015, fez pressão para que a sua estratégia se reorganizasse em torno dos carros elétricos. Este caso demonstra claramente como, por vezes, uma empresa precisa de passar por uma crise de forma a implementar uma mudança. Para além disso, mostra a relevância da mudança organizacional e das dynamic capabilities, para uma empresa manter uma vantagem competitiva, num ambiente em constante mudança.

archives@tulane.edu
People living through changes in their surroundings react to it unexpectedly. Exogenous political, economic and legal changes impact individual behavior in an unpredictable manner. This dissertation uses three papers to give evidence of exogenous shocks affecting individual behavior. First, I study the impact of an economic change. Using business cycle indicators, I show that a change in the employment status of parents causes them to invest higher time with their children instead of exploring new job opportunities in the early months of unemployment. The short term impact of unemployment is favorable for child development even though literature has shown that long term unemployment is detrimental to child well-being. Second, I explore the impact of a spillover of a policy intended to save energy. The Daylight Savings Time was implemented during the World Wars to conserve energy. Over the decades, its impact on energy conservation has diminished. My research shows that there are clear evidences of serious disruption in daily lives of those subjected to the clock change twice a year, causing higher stress and lower sleep in the early weeks of the time change. Third, I study the legalization of medical marijuana on consumption of marijuana and alcohol patterns, as well as criminal behavior among those subjected to it. The results show that even though there is a slight increase in marijuana and alcohol consumption among adults, there is no evidence to support that it encourages teenagers to explore marijuana consumption. There is also no evidence of any change in criminal behavior.
1
Sanjukta Basu

This dissertation, written in a form of case study, aims to address how a firm operating in the Portuguese textile and clothing industry was able to survive the challenges posed by the dynamics felt in the industry. It serves as a teaching instrument since it provides tools for the study of a real-life situation and application of theoretical frameworks learned in class. Valérius is a Portuguese company operating in the textile and clothing industry dedicated to the production of knitwear garments for the high premium segment, being able to craft a growth trajectory over the last years. Why is Valérius able to survive while many other companies are failing? What is on the basis of its competitive advantage? The options the company made, when facing difficult decisions in order to cope with changes on the external environment, creates a set of interesting issues to address in strategy courses, to further deepen students’ knowledge on theoretical concepts. The proposed case study delivers the base for a critical analysis of the company in order to understand where lies its competitive advantage, particularly with the study of the dynamic capabilities approach.
Esta dissertação, escrita na forma de um estudo de caso, tem como objetivo compreender como é que uma empresa que atua na industria têxtil e de vestuário portuguesa, conseguiu assegurar a sua sobrevivência face aos desafios da dinâmica constante sentida na indústria. Este serve como um instrumento de ensino, pois permite estudar uma situação real e posteriormente aplicar as teorias aprendidas em aula. A Valérius é uma empresa portuguesa que opera na indústria têxtil e de vestuário portuguesa, dedicada à confeção de vestuário exterior, especialmente de malhas, para o sector médio/alto. A empresa conseguiu construir uma trajetória de crescimento ao longo dos anos. Porque é que a Valérius consegue sobreviver, enquanto muitas outras empresas falharam? O que está na base da sua vantagem competitiva? As opções tomadas pela empresa, aquando de difíceis decisões, para se enquadrarem nas mudanças sentidas no ambiente externo, cria uma serie de tópicos interessantes para abordar nos cursos de estratégia, de forma a aprofundar o conhecimento dos estudantes relativamente aos conceitos teóricos. O estudo de caso aqui proposto, dá uma base para que seja feita uma análise crítica da empresa de forma a perceber de que forma é alcançada a vantagem competitiva, particularmente através do estudo das capacidades dinâmicas.

The Global Telecommunications Market is probably the most competitive industry worldwide. In the market of the Telecommunications Operators (TelCo’s) everything occurs at a vertiginous speed, making use of the most innovative technologies, implemented in a planetary scale. I trusted that it could be the ideal scenario for my dissertation, whose aim is analysing Competitive Advantage Theories and learning how a market leader does to keep growing and be the most innovator player. The challenges faced by the Global Market will be addressed, in the form of a case study, focusing specifically on Vodafone, one of the largest Telco’s, worldwide, and analysing evidence of how it ensures its competitiveness in the present and projects the future. It is intended that this case study can be used as a teaching tool, providing practical clues from a concrete example, to analyse the strategic structures, their general principles and applicable theories. The case focuses on the analysis of resources and capabilities, taking into account external shocks and internal changes. With the analysis of this case study, I intend to identify evidences that could help to answer to the research question: “What are the unique resources and capabilities that Vodafone possesses that constitute its competitive advantage and in what way did they’ve been developed”.
O Mercado Global das Telecomunicações é, porventura, o setor mais competitivo do Mundo. À volta das Operadoras de Telecomunicações (TelCo’s) tudo ocorre a uma velocidade vertiginosa, tirando partido das tecnologias mais inovadoras e implementando-as à escala planetária. Entendi, por essa razão, que este poderia ser o cenário ideal para a minha dissertação, cujo objetivo é analisar as Teorias das Vantagens Competitivas e aprender como um líder de mercado consegue fazer para continuar a crescer e a ser o player mais inovador. Serão abordados, na forma de Caso de Estudo, os desafios enfrentados pelo mercado global, focando-nos, especificamente, na Vodafone, uma das maiores empresas de telecomunicações do Mundo, e identificando evidências que permitam assegurar a sua competitividade, no presente, e perspetivando o futuro. Pretende-se que esta dissertação possa ser utilizada como ferramenta prática de trabalho, na aprendizagem, a partir de um exemplo concreto, da análise às estruturas estratégicas, seus princípios gerais e teorias aplicáveis. O caso foca-se na análise de recursos e capacidades, tomando em conta impactos externos e mudanças internas. Com a análise deste estudo de caso, sugerem-se evidências que possam ajudar a responder à pergunta de pesquisa: “Quais são os recursos e capacidades únicos que a Vodafone possui e que constituem a sua vantagem competitiva e de que forma têm vindo a ser desenvolvidos?”.

The paper written by Teece and colleagues in 1997 marked the introduction of the Dynamic Capabilities theory. Since then the framework gained massive attention by different scholars, with divergent points of view regarding the theory that intends to explain how firms can achieve sustainable competitive advantage in rapidly changing environments. In 2010, Barreto presented a more consistent view, converging all the past research, presenting Dynamic Capabilities as a four-dimension construct. My dissertation is a Teaching Case, and the focal objective is to illustrate Barreto’s view of Dynamic Capabilities in a real-life example. I decided to write my dissertation regarding Hertz Portugal, a rent-a-car company that exists in Portugal since 1959. The case explores the concept of new mobility alternatives such as car-sharing platforms present in the Portuguese market and provides insights regarding the ability of Hertz Portugal to address these changes. The case demonstrates how Hertz was able to position the company in the car-sharing market and how crucial the dimensions of dynamic capabilities are to address exogenous shocks.
O artigo escrito por Teece et al. em 1997 marcou a introdução da teoria sobre Dynamic Capabilities. Desde então o conceito ganhou imensa atenção por parte de vários autores, muitos deles com opiniões divergentes em relação a esta nova teoria que visa explicar como é que as empresas podem obter vantagem competitiva sustentável em ambientes de rápida mudança. Em 2010, Barreto apresentou uma proposta mais consistente sobre Dynamic Capabilities, convergindo estudos anteriores, apresentando por fim uma definição com quatro dimensões. A minha tese consiste num caso de estudo, e tem como objetivo principal ilustrar a proposta de Barreto num caso de vida real. Decidi escrever a minha tese sobre a Hertz Portugal, uma empresa de rent-a-car que está presente no mercado português desde 1959. O caso estuda o conceito de novas alternativas de mobilidade, como as plataformas de car-sharing presentes no mercado português, fornecendo informações sobre como é que a Hertz reagiu a estas mudanças e demonstra como a empresa se posicionou no mercado de car-sharing. Por fim o caso demonstra também como as quatro dimensões da teoria proposta por Barreto são vitais para uma empresa se adaptar a choques exógenos.

碩士
中原大學
國際商學碩士學位學程
102
This study was conducted to quantify the inter-industry transmission effects of the Tohoku earthquake on the Philippines, and compare the country’s estimated economic losses to those of its Asian neighbors. It also aims to reveal sectoral vulnerabilities in the Philippine manufacturing industry. The simulation results are fairly close to actual data, indicating that input output analysis is reliable in predicting economic losses, sectoral vulnerabilities, and dependencies of countries with each other, so that governments and the private sector may have insights on how they should prepare for exogenous shocks. From largest to smallest percentage of output loss, the countries can be listed in this order: Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Korea, China, Indonesia, and USA. The greatest output and GDP losses were estimated for the electrical machinery sector as measured in dollar value. Measured in percentage, the greatest output losses were estimated for machinery except electrical, and other manufacturing products. The least output losses measured in both percentage and dollar value were estimated for food, beverage and tobacco, and petroleum and petro products. The Philippines should learn from the countries which showed economic resilience, namely Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, and should explore ways on how to strengthen its vulnerable sectors.

In this thesis we provide evidence about the relative importance of foreign (Russian) and domestic monetary policy shocks for Belarusian economy. We employ a ten variable structural VAR model with block exogeneity and a set of dummy variables introduced to deal with instability of the data that corresponds to the periods of crises (2008 and 2011). We find that Belarus is significantly influenced by foreign shocks that account for 20 to 60 percent of fluctuations in domestic variables in the long run. The foreign demand and oil prices for Belarus are the main determinants of the domestic output and net export, while the foreign interest rate strongly affects Belarusian interest rate, money demand and the share of loans in GDP. Regarding the domestic monetary shocks, we find that the exchange rate is the most important channel in the Belarusian monetary transmission mechanism. We conclude that deeper trade integration with Russia could be beneficial for Belarusian economy, while in case of the monetary union creation the conduct of an independent monetary policy in Belarus could be further complicated.

This dissertation addresses the causes of and policy responses to the 1990s current account crises. The first chapter explores the relative importance of external shocks as key determinants of the significant increase of foreign reserves accumulated in many emerging market economies, and provides a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of reserve holdings. Using the case of Mexico, I find that more than two thirds of the increase in international reserves can be replicated by a linear combination of external shocks, without an abrupt regime shift after the Tequila crisis. I also find that Mexico has historically adopted an appropriate reserves policy, with 1994 being an exception. However, under the current reserves policy, there is a positive probability of a current account crisis in the near future. In chapter Two, I investigate the optimal reserves policy. The analysis predicts an optimal level of reserves in Mexico that is considerably higher than the actual level. When I account for the possibility of a bailout by the outside world in case of a crisis, Mexico's current reserves policy is in the range of my model's predictions. The final chapter proposes a new explanation for the existence and nature of sudden stops. In my model, a sudden stop forms a necessary solution to the moral hazard problem in investment and can be rationalized as part of an optimal lending strategy in the face of asymmetric information.
Thesis (Ph.D, Economics) -- Queen's University, 2009-08-13 22:52:26.219

The impact of the recent global financial crisis on the global economy has highlighted the level of integration of economies and the potential spillover effects as a result thereof. The implications are that the negative effects of the crisis can quickly spread to other economies through numerous transmission mechanisms. The response of developing or emerging economies to these unpredictable exogenous shocks becomes a topical issue. The concepts of economic vulnerability to and resilience against adverse exogenous shocks for emerging economies have since taken centre stage in many economic forums. Policy makers for emerging economies have come to the realisation that the increased economic vulnerability and a lack of economic resilience in their economies can erode the hard-fought-for gains in economic growth over the past decade and potentially harm their prospects as attractive destinations for foreign direct investment (FDI). This research analysed the resilience and vulnerability of emerging economies against adverse shocks using the sub-Saharan African (SSA) region as a case. The research used previous literature on emerging economies’ vulnerability and resilience to formulate four hypotheses around the major overarching themes of vulnerability and resilience. Two hypotheses looked at two functions of vulnerability, i.e. trade openness and financial integration, and two functions of resilience, i.e. international reserves accumulation and economic concentration. The findings of this research study were that SSA economies were vulnerable and not resilient against adverse exogenous shocks, and that few economies in the SSA region were prepared to successfully manoeuvre in an economic crisis. The structure of these economies inherently rendered these economies vulnerable. However, these economic structures also allowed the SSA region to achieve the high economic growth experienced during the past decade. The output of the methodology utilised in this research study resulted in a model that can be used to reduce the likelihood of an SSA economy being severely affected by an adverse economic shock.
Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2013.
ccgibs2014
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
MBA
Unrestricted

For the next five years, the automotive industry is expected to change more than in the last twenty years. Scholars have for a long time developed a wide array of theories and concepts on how firms cope with changing environments and gain a competitive advantage. Contributing to the existing theories, this thesis illustrates how the leading automotive group in the Nordic countries, Møller Mobility Group, gained a competitive advantage with the launch and development of several initiatives from 2014 to 2018. This case study displays how the unprecedented changes in the automotive industry affected Møller Mobility Group and led to several alterations within the company. Combining the case with current literature, it demonstrates how the attention-based view of firm behavior inadequately explains company performance. Additionally, this case study elucidates how a consolidated multidimensional construct of dynamic capabilities better explains how firms cope with a changing environment. Finally, this thesis illustrates how firms can internally analyze their resources and capabilities when facing highly dynamic environments.
Espera-se que nos próximos cinco anos a indústria automóvel venha a sofrer alterações superiores às experienciadas nos últimos vinte anos. O universo académico tem desenvolvido ao longo dos anos um vasto número de teorias e conceitos que visam explicar como é que as empresas podem sobreviver em ambientes dinâmicos, de rápida mudança e como é que as mesmas podem adquirir vantagens competitivas. Contribuindo para as teorias recentes, esta dissertação visa ilustrar como um dos maiores grupos automóveis nos países nórdicos conseguiu manter a sua vantagem competitiva através do lançamento e desenvolvimento de múltiplas iniciativas entre 2014 e 2018. O caso de estudo do Grupo Moller Mobility demonstra como alterações sem precedente na indústria automóvel afetaram o grupo norueguês, levando a alterações profundas na empresa. Combinando este caso com a presente literatura, esta dissertação espelha como a "Attention-Based View" não é a que melhor explica a performance da empresa, sendo que o método de "Consolidated Multidimensional Construct of Dynamic Capabilities" fornece uma melhor explicação sobre a forma como as empresas podem sobreviver em contextos em permanente mudança. Por final, esta dissertação ilustra como é que as empresas podem analisar internamente os seus recursos e capacidades, face a ambientes altamente dinâmicos.

The world is in constant change and the rapid evolution of technology, among other factors, plays an important role. Thus, it is crucial for organizations to adapt and to implement organizational changes and strategic decisions in order to survive in highly dynamic environments. To better illustrate the theoretical views with a real-life example, I selected the centenary Portuguese postal operator named CTT and how it has responded to the heavy decline of the Mail business. The case study intends to demonstrate the importance of identifying exogenous shocks in the operating market and the associated challenges that can arise to companies. Furthermore, it enhances how poor organizational performance can be a main driver for change. As a response to the shifts in the industry, CTT had a late implementation of a diversification strategy, mainly focused on two growth levers – Banking and Parcels sectors. Nonetheless, the case study shows how CTT’s diversification attempts have affected its core business and its competitive advantage. Moreover, it illustrates the importance of accessing Dynamic Capabilities in order to respond to dynamic environments.
O mundo está em constante mudança e para tal contribui, além de outros fatores, a rápida evolução da tecnologia. Por isso, é crucial que as organizações se adaptem e implementem mudanças organizacionais e decisões estratégicas para sobreviver em ambientes altamente dinâmicos. Para melhor ilustrar as visões teóricas com um exemplo da vida real, decidi selecionar o centenário operador postal português CTT e analisar a sua resposta ao forte declínio do sector postal. O caso de estudo pretende demonstrar a importância de identificar choques exógenos no mercado operacional e os desafios associados que podem surgir para as empresas. O caso identifica, ainda, o fraco desempenho organizacional como um possível fator que desencadeia a mudança. Em resposta às mudanças na indústria, os CTT adotaram tardiamente uma estratégia de diversificação, focada principalmente em duas alavancas de crescimento – o setor bancário e de encomendas. No entanto, o caso dos CTT realça como as tentativas de diversificação da empresa acabaram por afetar o seu negócio principal e a sua vantagem competitiva. Além disso, o caso ilustra perfeitamente a importância da utilização das Dynamic Capabilities para responder a estes ambientes dinâmicos.

In the late 1990s the Dynamic Capabilities framework by Teece et al. (1997) shifted the focus of strategic management to an individual company’s resources and its ability to adapt them to external market trends. Refined by Barreto (2010), this resource-based view serves as a theoretical framework for this thesis, which aims at examining the development of a strategic, technological partnership between two established industrial companies. Hereby, Daimler and BMW, two of Germany’s leading automotive manufacturers are used as a real-world example in the form of a case study. The case depicts the current developments in the automotive industry and the opportunities available in the field of new mobility for traditional manufacturing companies. It outlines Daimler’s and BMW’s historical milestones and their path towards their mobility joint venture YourNow, launched in early 2019. From a strategic point of view, the case highlights the companies’ motives for the joint venture. It analyzes the exogenous shocks the companies faced, urging the former rivals to cooperate. Furthermore, the case evaluates the joint venture’s capabilities to succeed in the highly competitive mobility market as of mid 2020.
No final dos anos 1990, a framework das Dynamic Capabilities de Teece et al. (1997) mudou o foco da gestão estratégica para os recursos internos de uma empresa e para a sua capacidade de adaptá-los às tendências do mercado externo. Refinada por Barreto (2010), essa visão baseada em recursos serve como base teórica para esta tese, que visa examinar o desenvolvimento de uma parceria tecnológica estratégica entre duas empresas industriais já estabelecidas no mercado. O caso de estudo da Daimler e da BMW, dois dos principais fabricantes de automóveis da Alemanha, é utilizado como exemplo do mundo real das empresas. O caso descreve os desenvolvimentos atuais na indústria automóvel e as oportunidades disponíveis no campo da nova mobilidade para os fabricantes tradicionais. São relatados os marcos históricos da Daimler e da BMW e o seu caminho para a joint venture de mobilidade “YourNow”, lançada no início de 2019. Do ponto de vista estratégico, o caso destaca os motivos das empresas para a joint venture. Analisa ainda os choques exógenos enfrentados pelas empresas, que motivaram os antigos rivais a cooperar. Além disso, o caso avalia as capacidades da joint venture ser bem sucedida no mercado altamente competitivo da mobilidade, em meados de 2020.

Tese de doutoramento em Ciências Empresariais
A presente tese de doutoramento visa analisar o desempenho dos mercados financeiros e dos níveis de atividade económica na Zona Euro, nos EUA e no bloco NAFTA. Deste modo, no primeiro capítulo, fazendo uso de uma especificação de um modelo SVAR, com restrições contemporâneas, analisam-se os efeitos dos choques petrolíferos sobre os mercados bolsistas dos EUA, Alemanha, França, Portugal e Grécia. Através de uma análise dinâmica, revela-se que os choques petrolíferos não afetam significativamente os mercados bolsistas, realçando-se, todavia, o papel preponderante e determinante do índice dos EUA sobre o desempenho dos índices europeus. Porém, no contexto europeu, apenas se verifica uma relação significativa e unidirecional entre o índice bolsista francês e o índice bolsista português, que pode justificar-se pelo facto de ambos os índices integrarem o Euronext Stock Exchange. No segundo capítulo, recorrendo ao uso de uma especificação de um modelo SVAR, com restrições de longo-prazo, e usando a decomposição de Blanchard & Quah (1989), procede-se à análise dos efeitos dos choques fiscais e petrolíferos sobre países integrantes da Zona Euro e dos EUA, constatando-se que, os choques fiscais apresentam uma menor preponderância que o choque petrolífero. Porém, o efeito dos choques petrolíferos, no cômputo geral, é positivo sobre a atividade económica e o mercado de acções, ao invés do impulso sobre o mercado de obrigações de dívida soberana que se revela negativo. No que concerne à reduzida significância dos choques fiscais, esta associa-se à importância da política monetária. Relativamente ao choque petrolífero, constata-se a importância da valorização da taxa de câmbio bem como a enorme contribuição das empresas petrolíferas para a determinação do desempenho dos mercados de ações e a uma redução de produção petrolífera (oferta) ou de um comportamento especulativo resultante da crise financeira. No terceiro capítulo, ao usar-se um modelo SVEC na análise do choque fiscal por via das receitas fiscais entre países integrantes de Zona Euro, constata-se que os choques por via dos impostos indiretos é o choque mais significativo, denotando-se, todavia, um efeito negativo sobre a globalidade dos mercados de ações em estudo. Sublinha-se que, o mercado italiano responde de forma negativa e significativa a ambos os choques fiscais, o que pode ser justificado pelo facto de os mercados anteciparem um possível bailout à economia italiana. Por conseguinte, as previsões para fora da amostra, ao mostrarem uma tendência de queda acentuada do desempenho dos mercados de ações, em termos gerais, acompanhada de um aumento acentuado de carga fiscal no caso espanhol, podem sinalizar um hipotético término da moeda única europeia. No quarto capítulo, com o objetivo de indagar sobre o desempenho dos mercados de ações ao longo da sua distribuição de desempenho, perante as dinâmicas de IDE, preços de petróleo e atividade económica em países integrantes da Zona Euro. Revela-se ainda que o IDE surte um efeito negativo e significativo, em níveis inferiores de desempenho dos mercados, ao passo que os preços de petróleo surtem um efeito negativo e significativo, ao longo da totalidade da distribuição de desempenho dos mercados de ações. No que concerne à atividade económica, verifica-se que esta não tem qualquer efeito significativo sobre o desempenho dos mercados. No quinto capítulo, procede-se à análise dos choques de oferta para avaliar a hipotética existência de relações económicas de longo-prazo, através de evidências empíricas sobre uma zona monetária ótima, tanto no bloco NAFTA como no bloco europeu, o qual se divide em dois grupos (PIIGS e Bloco Europeu dos Países Ricos). Por intermédio de um modelo SVAR, conforme proposto por Blanchard & Quah (1989), verifica-se que tanto o bloco NAFTA, como o grupo de países ricos da Zona Euro e da União Europeia (UE) se verifica a admissibilidade de formação de zonas monetárias ótimas, na medida em que a rapidez de ajustamento a estes choques num contexto regional, é superior à verificada para os choques de oferta num contexto global e doméstico. No entanto, a rapidez de ajustamento na região NAFTA é superior à do grupo Bloco Europeu dos Países Ricos.
This doctoral thesis aims to analyse the behaviour of financial markets and levels of economic activity in the Eurozone, the U.S. and the NAFTA block. Thus, in the first chapter, using a specification of a SVAR model with contemporaneous restrictions, the effects of oil shocks on the U.S. stock markets, Germany, France, Portugal and Greece, are analysed. Through a dynamic analysis, we reveal that oil price shocks do not significantly affect stock markets, by stressing the predominant and determinant role of the US stock market on the performance of European stock markets. However, in the European context, we only identified a significant and unidirectional relationship between the French and Portuguese stock markets, which can be justified by the fact that both indices integrate the Euronext Stock Exchange. In the second chapter, by making use of an SVAR model specification, with long-term restrictions, and taking into consideration the Blanchard and Quah (1989)’s decomposition, the effects of fiscal shocks and oil shocks on countries of the Eurozone and US are analysed. Overall, the results obtained reveal that the fiscal shocks have a minor effect on stock markets, in comparison with oil shock. In regarding to oil shock, empirical evidences now obtained reveal a positive effect on a larger set of countries, concerning stock markets and economic activity, unlike to the stated on sovereign bonds market, for which a negative effect is verified. According to the evidences from fiscal shocks, an explanation for the low significance of fiscal shocks, it may be associated with a larger position of monetary policy. Before reaching positive outcomes from oil shock, it may be presumed that exchange rate valuation and the high weight of great oil corporations on economic activity and stocks are the main determinant factors for the occurrence of this positive signal. Therefore, the negative impulses from oil prices on bonds market take into account the expected reduction in production (supply) speculation, mainly because of the financial crisis together with Arab conflicts. In the third chapter, when using an SVEC model for analysing the effects of fiscal shock through tax revenues among Eurozone stock markets, it appears that the shock towards indirect taxes is the most significant, when comparing with shock through direct taxes, by denoting a negative effect on the totality of the stock markets under study. It stresses that the Italian stock market is the one that responding significantly and negatively by either indirect taxes or direct taxes. This result may be justified by the fact that stock markets investors anticipate a potential bailout for Italian state. Therefore, the evidences from out-of-sample forecasting reveal a bearish trend market in global stock markets, accompanied by a heightened trend in the fiscal burden, namely, in the context of Spain that may signal a possible end of the euro currency. In the fourth chapter, in order to investigate how the stock markets behave along the performance distribution, given the dynamics of FDI, oil prices and economic activity in the context of Eurozone countries, it is revealed that the FDI has a negative and significant effect, at lower levels of market performance, while the oil prices have a negative and significant effect throughout the whole distribution of stock market performance. Regarding to the economic activity, we reveal there is no significant effect on the stock markets’ behaviour. In the fifth chapter, an analysis on supply shocks is performed, in order to assess the hypothetical existence of long-term economic relations that support the existence of an optimal currency area (OCA), both on the NAFTA and European block, which is subdivided into two groups (PIIGS and Rich Countries). Through a SVAR model, as previously proposed by Blanchard and Quah (1989), we find for the NAFTA block, the group of rich countries of the Eurozone and the Europe block, empirical evidences on the existence of OCAs, in so far as that the speed of adjustment to these shocks in a regional context, is higher than supply shocks in a global and domestic contexts. However, the speed of the adjustment region is higher for the NAFTA, comparing with the set of Rich Countries.

In the rapidly changing environment of the tourism industry, it becomes crucial for its players to adapt to exogenous factors in order to stay competitive and profitable in the long run. As an increasing number of tourists were individually booking their holidays through online booking portals, the business model of pure tour operators was being undermined. While some players, like TUI, saw the digitalization as an opportunity to change its business model, others, like Thomas Cook, failed to adapt. The case of TUI, one of the largest tourism groups worldwide, serves as an example of a successful strategic change and fit to environmental and organizational contingencies. The case demonstrates how TUI transformed its business model from a traditional tour operator towards a fully vertically integrated provider of holiday experiences. The new management introduced a strategic initiative in 2013, which involved the important merger of the parent company TUI AG with its subsidiary TUI Travel to reach full vertical integration. Thereafter, TUI highly invested in assets in terms of hotels and cruise ships as well as destination experiences. It illustrates, that the management made use of Dynamic Capabilities and changed the company’s resource base through the corporate strategy of vertical integration, in particular in the form of taper integration. Although the strategic change had proven to be successful, the vertical integration exposed the group to enormous financial challenges, when the corona pandemic brought the world to a standstill in 2020.
Num ambiente em rápida mudança, como o da indústria do turismo, torna-se crucial que as empresas se adaptem a fatores exógenos para permanecerem competitivas e lucrativas a longo prazo. Com um número crescente de turistas a reservar as suas férias individualmente on-line, o modelo de negócios dos operadores turísticos puros foi posto em causa. Enquanto alguns players, como a TUI, viram a digitalização como uma oportunidade para mudar o seu modelo de negócios, outros, como a Thomas Cook, não conseguiram adaptar-se. O caso da TUI, um dos maiores grupos turísticos do mundo, serve como exemplo de uma mudança estratégica bem-sucedida e adequada às contingências ambientais e organizacionais. O caso demonstra como a TUI transformou o seu modelo de negócios, de uma operadora de turismo tradicional para um fornecedor de experiências de férias totalmente integrado verticalmente. A nova administração introduziu, em 2013, uma iniciativa estratégica que envolveu a importante fusão da empresa-mãe TUI AG com a sua subsidiária TUI Travel para alcançar uma integração vertical completa. Posteriormente, a TUI investiu muito em ativos, tais como hotéis e navios de cruzeiro, bem como em experiências nos destinos de férias. O caso ilustra como a gestão de topo utilizou as dynamic capabilities para mudar a base de recursos da empresa por meio duma estratégia corporativa de integração vertical, em particular na forma duma ‘taper integration’. Embora a mudança estratégica tenha sido bem-sucedida, a integração vertical expôs o grupo a enormes desafios financeiros, quando a pandemia causada pelo coronavírus parou o mundo em 2020.

The present thesis investigates the major factors that can help firms to more effectively cope with fast-changing environments, through the analysis of a case study. More precisely, Ceridian Inc ’s transformation and evolution in the HCM market over the last years is being analyzed because it allows to connect academic material with real world scenarios. As a foundation of the present study, several theoretical perspectives and concepts have been discussed, including Strategic Change, Organizational Agility and Dynamic Capabilities. Data and information concerning the organization were collected through multiple sources, including the company’s website, press releases and articles and a personal interview. The case explores the importance of developing DCs and an innovative organizational culture in fast-paced environments. It also stresses the key role played by constant efforts on R&D and a strong focus on both customer and employee experience. This case study adds to the body of research providing a real-life example of a firm whose approach has “challenged” the traditional perspectives towards change, which generally lie on assumptions mainly based on stability and routine. Instead, Ceridian HCM Inc. kept being updated, proactive and agile over time, developing a culture of innovation, considering the overall ecosystem characterized by “ongoing, evolving, and cumulative” change, as a demonstration that, approaching change, both on a micro and macro level, can allow firms to better cope with the current business environment
A presente tese investiga os principais fatores que podem ajudar as empresas a lidar de maneira mais eficaz com ambientes em rápida mudança, através da análise de um caso de estudo. Em concreto, a transformação e a evolução da Ceridian Inc no mercado de Gestão de Capital Humano nos últimos anos são analisadas, como um exemplo da aplicação das teorias e conceitos académicos a um caso real. Como base para o presente estudo, várias perspetivas e conceitos teóricos foram analisados, incluindo a Mudança Estratégica, a Agilidade Organizacional e as Capacidades Dinâmicas. Os dados e as informações referentes à organização foram recolhidos através de várias fontes, incluindo o site da empresa, comunicados de imprensa, artigos e uma entrevista pessoal. O caso explora a importância do desenvolvimento de Capacidades Dinâmicas e de uma cultura organizacional inovadora em ambientes em rápida mudança. Além disso, enfatiza o papel fundamental desempenhado pelos esforços constantes em investigação e desenvolvimento e pelo foco na experiência do cliente e dos colaboradores. O presente caso de estudo contribui para a literatura existente ao fornecer um exemplo real de uma Empresa cuja abordagem desafiou as perspetivas tradicionais de mudança, que geralmente se baseiam em pressupostos de estabilidade e rotina. A Ceridian HCM Inc. soube manter-se atualizada, proactiva e ágil ao longo do tempo, desenvolvendo uma cultura de inovação. Considerando o ecossistema global caracterizado por mudanças contínuas e evoluções cumulativas, a Empresa demonstrou que abordar a questão da mudança, ao nível micro e macro, pode permitir às empresas lidarem melhor com o ambiente de negócios atual.