Journal articles: 'Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model'

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O. Odior, Ernest Simeon, and Sabastine Arinze. "THE CONCEPT OF COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS." International Journal of Research in Commerce and Management Studies 04, no. 02 (2022): 01–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.38193/ijrcms.2022.4201.

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This paper contributes to the existing literature on the general concept on use of the Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of importance in developing processes. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used widely in policy analysis, especially in developed-country academic settings and also for the purpose of sharing these lessons with potential users in developing countries. The range of issues on which CGE models have had an influence is quite wide, and includes structural adjustment policies, international trade, public finance, agriculture, income distribution, and energy and environmental policy. This paper describes how to build multi sector computable general equilibrium models for policy analysis. The article presents the social accounting matrix (SAM) that provides the conceptual framework linking together different components of the model and furnishes much of the data as well.

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Liu, Jing, Thomas Hertel, and Farzad Taheripour. "Analyzing Future Water Scarcity in Computable General Equilibrium Models." Water Economics and Policy 02, no. 04 (December 2016): 1650006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2382624x16500065.

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Incorporating water into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model operating at global scale can be extremely demanding due to the absence of standardized data, the sheer dimensions caused by intersecting river basins with countries, and difficulties to model demand for and supply of water. This has led many authors to introduce water in their CGE modeling framework in different ways and at different spatial and sectoral aggregation levels. Of course, simplifying market for water and sacrificing the geographical realism risk introducing errors caused by inappropriate aggregation. In this paper, we use an elaborate global CGE model to investigate the three most commonly practiced simplifications: (1) tackling global questions in a national level model; (2) collapsing irrigated and rainfed crop production into a single sector; and (3) removing river basin boundaries within a country. In each case, we compare their performance in predicting the impacts of future irrigation scarcity on international trade, crop output, land use change and welfare, relative to the full scale model. As might be expected, the single region model does a good job of matching outcomes for that region, although changes in bilateral trade can entail significant errors. When it comes to the elimination of sub-national river basins and irrigation location, we find that, if the research question has to do with changes in national-scale trade, production and welfare changes, it may be sufficient to ignore the sub-national hydrological boundaries in global economic analysis of water scarcity. However, when decision makers have an interest in the distribution of inputs and outputs within a region, preserving the river basin and sectoral detail in the model brings considerable added value to the analysis.

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Konan, Demise Eby, and Karl Kim. "Transportation and Tourism in Hawaii: Computable General Equilibrium Model." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1839, no. 1 (January 2003): 142–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1839-16.

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Using data from the state of Hawaii input-output (I-O) table, the economic impact of the transportation sector in Hawaii was described, modeled, and forecast under a number of alternative scenarios. Transportation is compared with the key economic sectors in the state in output, exports, household consumption, visitor spending, number of employees, and compensation of employees. Next, the overall transportation sector was disaggregated into key activities and functions to present a more complete picture of the important role of transportation in Hawaii. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the economy with a special focus on transportation is developed. Because tourism is the state's leading sector, the effects of both an increase and a decrease in visitor expenditures were modeled. Both measuring the economic importance of transportation in Hawaii and estimating probable consequences of potential economic changes are of interest. The visitor industry dominates Hawaii's economy, with small increases in visitor expenditures contributing significantly to the gross state product. Transportation industries, along with restaurant and accommodation services, account for a disproportionately large share of this growth. Key residential transportation sectors (transit and motor vehicles) contract in response to cost increases generated by a growth in visitor demand. The use of the I-O table and CGE modeling provides a useful analytical and planning tool for evaluating economic scenarios within a region such as Hawaii. The increased availability of both data sets and new modeling techniques offers opportunities to planners, engineers, and transportation policy makers.

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Hossain, Syed Shoyeb, and Huang Delin. "Rice and Wheat Tariff Impact in Bangladesh: CGE Analysis Using Gtap Model." Journal of Agricultural Science 11, no. 10 (July 15, 2019): 63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jas.v11n10p63.

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Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are mostly used for agricultural market analysis globally. This paper constructs a Computable General Equilibrium model using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model followed by the GTAP 9A database. The primary aim of this paper is to analyze the potential impact of tariff increase on Agricultural crop sectors (Rice and Wheat) in Bangladesh and then describes the construction of the database. It also attempts to detect the trend of the tariff change impact on rice and wheat production in Bangladesh and other South Asian countries. Using database reference year 2011, this paper builds a computable general equilibrium model to measure the Tariff impact in Bangladesh. Result of the model suggests that if an import tariff is imposed, it will affect domestic-foreign relative price between Bangladesh and other south Asian countries. Bilateral trade between Bangladesh and South Asia country will decline sharply. Finally, this paper explained the policy scenario, data sources, and processing methods in details.

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Koks, Elco E., Lorenzo Carrera, Olaf Jonkeren, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Trond G. Husby, Mark Thissen, Gabriele Standardi, and Jaroslav Mysiak. "Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input–output and computable general equilibrium models." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 8 (August 16, 2016): 1911–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1911-2016.

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Abstract. A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input–output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

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Koks, E. E., L. Carrera, O. Jonkeren, J. C. J. H. Aerts, T. G. Husby, M. Thissen, G. Standardi, and J. Mysiak. "Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3, no. 11 (November 24, 2015): 7053–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7053-2015.

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Abstract. A large variety of models has been developed to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are Input-Output (IO) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing numbers of scholars has developed hybrid approaches; one that combines both or either of them in combination with non-economic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitates better decisions and policy making. Therefore, in this study we analyze one specific case study, using three regional models: two hybrid IO models and a regionally calibrated version of a global CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po-river basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of seven between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

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Wang, Shiyu. "Correlation Analysis between Tourism and Economic Growth Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)." Journal of Sensors 2022 (June 20, 2022): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6497125.

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The current tourism industry has the problems of low service efficiency, poor coordinated development, and slow economic growth in terms of service volume and economic growth. This paper is based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Firstly, a CGE data analysis model based on bee colony intensive breakthrough algorithm is established to store and analyze the data in the whole chain of tourism. Then, combined with the comparative analysis of tourism economic data over the years, it is fed back to the CGE model for error analysis. Finally, relevant experiments are designed to analyze the relationship between tourism and economic growth. The correlation degree of local economic growth is analyzed. The results show that, compared with the traditional research method of tourism economic growth based on module data analysis, this CGE model can realize the correlation analysis of the data involved in the process of tourism economic growth and analyze the factors affecting the speed of economic growth, which has the advantages of good reliability and strong pertinence.

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Robson, Edward, and Vinayak V. Dixit. "Constructing a Database for Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Sydney, Australia, Transport Network." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2606, no. 1 (January 2017): 54–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2606-07.

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In the search for benefits to justify transport projects, economic appraisals have increasingly incorporated the valuation of impacts to the wider economy. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models provide a framework to estimate these impacts by simulating the interactions of urban economies and transport networks. In CGE models, households and firms are represented by microeconomic behavioral functions, and markets adjust according to prices. As markets both inside and outside the transport network are taken into account, a wide variety of measures that can assist in economic appraisals can be extracted. However, urban CGE models are computationally burdensome and require detailed, spatially disaggregate data. This paper discusses the methodology used to develop a database, including an input–output table, for the calibration of an urban CGE model for Sydney, Australia. Official and publicly available data sources were manipulated by using a number of mathematical and statistical techniques to compile a table for 249 regions and 20 sectors across Sydney. Issues, such as determining the appropriate level of aggregation, generating incomplete data, and managing conflicting data, that other input–output table developers may encounter when constructing multiregional tables were addressed in the study. The table entries themselves were mapped and explored, as they provide a useful study of the spatial economy of Sydney. Future work will focus on streamlining the construction of input–output tables and incorporating new data sources.

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Widyastutik, Widyastutik, Suahasil Nazara, Rina Oktaviani, and Djamester Simarmata. "Trade Barrier Elimination, Economics of Scale and Market Competition: Computable General Equilibrium Model." Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi 6, no. 2 (June 30, 2017): 189–216. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5279.

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The ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries agreed to reduce trade barriers in the services sector, one of which is sea transport services. The purpose of this study is to estimate the equivalent tax of non-tariff barriers in the sea transport services. Besides that, this study is going to analyze the economic impacts of the regulatory barriers elimination in the sea transport services of ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries. Using the gravity model, it can be identified that trade barriers of sea transport services sector of ASEAN and dialogue partner countries are still relatively high. Additionally, by adopting IC-IRTS model in Global CGE Model (GTAP), the simulation results show consistent results with the theory of pro-competitive effects. The greater gain from trade is obtained in the CGE model assuming IC-IRTS compared to PC-CRTS. China gains a greater benefit that is indicated by the highest increase in welfare and GDP followed by Japan and AustraliaDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5279

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Dixon, Peter B., and Maureen T. Rimmer. "Analysing Convergence with a Multi-Country Computable General Equilibrium Model: PPP versus Mer." Energy & Environment 16, no. 6 (November 2005): 901–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1260/095830505775221524.

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In studies of the greenhouse gas implications of convergence by developing countries to the per-capita GNPs of developed countries, considerable discussion has centred on whether purchasing power parity (PPP) or market exchange rates (MER) should be used in measuring per-capita GNPs. We suggest that technology gaps between developing and developed countries should be the starting point for convergence analysis rather than per-capita GNP gaps. We estimate two sets of initial technology gaps, using PPP and MER price assumptions combined with input-output data. In simulating the effects of closing technology gaps (convergence) using a dynamic, multi-country CGE model, we find: the MER/PPP distinction matters. MER-based estimates of initial technology gaps lead to higher estimates of convergence-induced growth in greenhouse-gas-emitting industries in developing countries than do PPP-based estimates. the industry detail in CGE models is valuable. Our simulations show a wide range of convergence-induced changes in output across industries.

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Nadoveza, Ozana, Tomislav Sekur, and Marija Beg. "General Equilibrium Effects of Lower Labor Tax Burden in Croatia." Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business 19, s1 (December 1, 2016): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2016-0009.

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AbstractThis paper examines the effects of lower labor tax burden in Croatia by using Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It is a 5-sector (households, firms, government, investors and foreigners) model and economy is disaggregated on three highly aggregated sectors. One of the major advantages of CGE modeling is the evaluation of the overall effects of policy changes, shocks and reforms in the economy. We do this by lowering taxes on labor and simulating changes of all endogenous variables in the model simultaneously. Lastly, we provide sensitivity analysis results. Our results suggest that it is possible to encourage domestic production by reducing taxes on labor, but the potential effects on unemployment should be revised as to get more accurate estimates.

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McDonald, Nicola J., and Garry W. McDonald. "Towards a Dynamic Equilibrium-Seeking Model of a Closed Economy." Systems 8, no. 4 (November 4, 2020): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/systems8040042.

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Economics has long been concerned with the development of tools to help understand and describe the interactions among economic actors including the circular flow of economic resources. This paper expands our available toolkit of models, by describing a novel dynamic equilibrium-seeking model of a closed economy. The model retains many of the key features of state-of-the-art Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models including economic interdependence, input substitution, nested production functions, and so on. A distinguishing feature of this model is that it adopts price-related balancing feedback loops that simulate the self-regulating behaviour of a dynamic economic system. Our modelling shows not only equilibrium states (as per conventional CGE models), but the transition path toward an often-changing equilibrium. This facilitates the investigation of out-of-equilibrium dynamics and behaviour adaptation typical of largescale disruption events.

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Hartono, Djoni, and Budy P. Resosudarmo. "Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Harga Energi terhadap Perekonomian dan Distribusi Pendapatan di DKI Jakarta: Aplikasi Model Komputasi Keseimbangan Umum." Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia 5, no. 1 (July 1, 2004): 83–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v5i1.101.

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Studi ini hendak menganalisa dampak dan kebijakan harga energi Indonesia terhadap perekonomian kota Jakarta; khususnya terhadap pendapatan rumah tangga miskin. Studi ini juga berusaha memformulasikan kebijakan regional yang penting bagi Jakarta untuk menurunkan dampak negative dan kebijakan energi nasional ini terhadap pendapatan rumah tangga miskin. Untuk mencapai tujuan ini, dibangun sebuah model CGE (computable general equilibrium) regional. Model ini merupakan model CGE pertama di Indonesia yang dikembangkan untuk sebuah kota.

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Alavalapati, Janaki RR, Wiktor L. Adamowicz, and William A. White. "A comparison of economic impact assessment methods: the case of forestry developments in Alberta." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 28, no. 5 (May 1, 1998): 711–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x98-049.

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Economic impacts of forestry developments in Alberta are estimated using two interindustry approaches. The results suggest that estimates derived from input-output (I-O) models differ from those of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Employment and GDP estimates derived from CGE models are much smaller than those of I-O models. Unlike I-O estimates, estimates derived from CGE models are not unidirectional because of general equilibrium effects. The results also indicate that CGE models provide greater flexibility and have more potential for forest policy analysis when compared with I-O models, but they should be used with caution.

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Chen, Keyao, Guizhi Wang, Lingyan Wu, Jibo Chen, Shuai Yuan, Qi Liu, and Xiaodong Liu. "PM2.5 Pollution: Health and Economic Effect Assessment Based on a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 24 (December 13, 2019): 5102. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16245102.

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At present particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution represents a serious threat to the public health and the national economic system in China. This paper optimizes the whitening coefficient in a grey Markov model by a genetic algorithm, predicts the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and then quantifies the health effects of PM2.5 pollution by utilizing the predicted concentration, computable general equilibrium (CGE), and a carefully designed exposure–response model. Further, the authors establish a social accounting matrix (SAM), calibrate the parameter values in the CGE model, and construct a recursive dynamic CGE model under closed economy conditions to assess the long-term economic losses incurred by PM2.5 pollution. Subsequently, an empirical analysis was conducted for the Beijing area: Despite the reduced concentration trend, PM2.5 pollution continued to cause serious damage to human health and the economic system from 2013 to 2020, as illustrated by various facts, including: (1) the estimated premature deaths and individuals suffering haze pollution-related diseases are 156,588 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 43,335–248,914)) and six million, respectively; and (2) the accumulated labor loss and the medical expenditure negatively impact the regional gross domestic product, with an estimated loss of 3062.63 (95% CI: 1,168.77–4671.13) million RMB. These findings can provide useful information for governmental agencies to formulate relevant environmental policies and for communities to promote prevention and rescue strategies.

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Peichl, Andreas. "Simulationsmodelle zur ex ante Evaluation von Steuerreformen." Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 58, no. 1 (April 1, 2009): 127–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/zfwp-2009-0109.

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AbstractMicrosimulation models (MSM) and Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE) have both been widely used in policy analysis. The combination of these two model types allows the utilization of the advantages of both types. The aim of this paper is to describe the state-of-the-art in simulation modeling and to demonstrate the benefits of linking both model types modeling using a flat tax reform proposal for Germany

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Peter Mgeni, Charles, Klaus Müller, and Stefan Sieber. "Reducing Edible Oil Import Dependency in Tanzania: A Computable General Equilibrium CGE Approach." Sustainability 11, no. 16 (August 19, 2019): 4480. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11164480.

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Reducing food imports and promoting domestically produced food commodities are long-standing goals for policymakers and other stakeholders in sub-Saharan African countries. For instance, Tanzania, after a long period of dependency on imported food commodities, such as sugar and edible oils, intends to meet its demand for these commodities through domestic production by transforming its agriculture sector to achieve this goal. Applying a general computable equilibrium (CGE) model, this study determines the multiplier effects of technological progress that is assumed to foster domestic edible oilseed crop production, other crops, and Tanzania’s economy in general. Findings from the model establish an increase in domestic production not only for the edible oilseed crops but also for other commodities from other sectors of the economy. In addition, there is a decrease in prices on domestically produced commodities sold in the domestic market, and an increase in disposable income is predicted for all rural and urban households, as well as government revenues. Based on model results, we recommend that the Tanzanian government invests in technological progress and interventions that increase production in sectors such as agriculture, where it has a comparative advantage. Interventions that increase smallholder farmer’s production, such as the use of improved seed and other modern technologies that reduce costs of production, are critical for reducing food imports and improving food security.

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Domingues, Edson Paulo, and Eduardo Amaral Haddad. "Sensitivity Analysis in Computable General Equilibrium Models: An Application for the Regional Effects of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)." Brazilian Review of Econometrics 25, no. 1 (May 1, 2005): 115. http://dx.doi.org/10.12660/bre.v25n12005.2674.

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The goal of this paper is to explore an applied tool for sensitivity analysis in computable general equilibrium models (CGE). An interregional CGE model is used to assess the impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) on Brazilian regions. As interregional substitution and factor mobility can be the key mechanisms that drive the model results, one should take closer attention to the estimated regional trade elasticities. Since information for proper estimation is rarely available, qualitative sensitivity analysis should be designed and used together with systematic quantitative sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of results to parameters is evaluated in such a way that we can assess the robustness of results to different levels of elasticities of substitution

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Waters, Edward C., and Chang K. Seung. "Impacts of Recent Shocks to Alaska Fisheries: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model Analysis." Marine Resource Economics 25, no. 2 (June 2010): 155–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5950/0738-1360-25.2.155.

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Wright, Robert E. "Demographic applications of over-lapping generations computable general equilibrium (OLG-CGE) models." Economic Modelling 35 (September 2013): 969. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.010.

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Kearney, M., and J. H. Van Heerden. "Zero-rating food in South Africa: A computable general equilibrium analysis." South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences 7, no. 3 (April 8, 2004): 521–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v7i3.1362.

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Zero-rating food is considered to alleviate poverty of poor households who spend the largest proportion of their income on food. However, this will result in a loss of revenue for government. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the combined effects on zero-rating food and using alternative revenue sources to compensate for the loss in revenue. To prohibit excessively high increases in the statutory VAT rates of business and financial services, increasing direct taxes or increasing VAT to 16 per cent, is investigated. Increasing direct taxes is the most successful option when creating a more progressive tax structure, and still generating a positive impact on GDP. The results indicate that zero-rating food combined with a proportional percentage increase in direct taxes can improve the welfare of poor households.

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Macmillan, W. D. "General Economic Equilibrium with Dispersed Preferences over Discrete Alternatives: An Existence Proof Using Optimisation." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 27, no. 12 (December 1995): 2019–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a272019.

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This paper is concerned with the foundations of urban spatial interaction modelling but is cast in a more general form. Its purpose is to establish a sound microeconomic basis for the construction of CGE (computable general equilibrium) models of cities. It is based on three premises: (1) before trying to compute equilibria, it is prudent to show that they exist; (2) careful consideration of the circumstances under which they exist is advantageous both technically and theoretically; (3) by constructing an existence proof which centres on a mathematical programming problem, it is possible to forge a direct connection between the programming-based spatial interaction modelling literature and general equilibrium theory.

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Dzyuba, Yu A., and I. K. Bakalova. "Application of CGE Models as a Climate Policy Assessment Tool: Bibliometric Analysis." Interexpo GEO-Siberia 2, no. 4 (May 18, 2022): 129–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.33764/2618-981x-2022-2-4-129-140.

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In this study, we conduct a comprehensive bibliometric analysis aimed at structuring the existing economic literature that employs Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, and identifying key trends and main research areas. Using the authors’ methodology, we analyze the sample of 3760 domestic and foreign papers on CGE models published in 759 scientific journals in the period from 1995 to 2021. The main research questions are the applicability of the analyzed models for solving current environmental and economic issues and its relevance in modern realities. We show the potential of CGE models in the analysis of climate policy in Russia.

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Galindev, Ragchaasuren, and Bernard Decaluwe. "Endogenous Capital Utilization in CGE Models: A Mongolian Application with the PEP-1-1 Model." Journal of Global Economic Analysis 7, no. 1 (June 24, 2022): 76–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/jgea.070103af.

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This paper extends the PEP-1-1 model (a static computable general equilibrium, or CGE, model for small open economies) to incorporate variable capital utilization. It argues that CGE models with fixed sectoral capital may underestimate the impact of shocks in the short run by ignoring industries’ adjustment of their capital utilization rate (or intensity of use) in response to changes in their economic environment. The model is calibrated to a 2014 Mongolian social accounting matrix. An increase in the export price of coal is considered as a shock for demonstration purposes. Compared to the standard PEP-1-1 model the impact of the shock is larger in the expanded model. In addition, the results of the PEP-1-1 model are derived as a special case of the model involving capital utilization.

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Zalai, Ernő, and Tamás Révész. "The Issue of Macroeconomic Closure Revisited and Extended." Acta Oeconomica 66, no. 1 (March 2016): 1–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/032.2016.66.1.1.

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Léon Walras (1874) had already realised that his neo-classical general equilibrium model could not accommodate autonomous investments. In the early 1960s, Amartya Sen analysed the same issue in a simple, one-sector macroeconomic model of a closed economy. He showed that fixing investment in the model, built strictly on neo-classical assumptions, would make the system overdetermined, and thus one should loosen some neo-classical conditions of competitive equilibrium. He analysed three not neo-classical “closure options”, which could make the model well-determined in the case of fixed investment. His list was later extended by others and it was shown that the closure dilemma arises in the more complex computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well, as does the choice of adjustment mechanism assumed to bring about equilibrium at the macro level. It was also illustrated through several numerical models that the adopted closure rule can significantly affect the results of policy simulations based on a CGE model. Despite these warnings, the issue of macro closure is often neglected in policy simulations. It is, therefore, worth revisiting the issue and demonstrating by further examples its importance, as well as pointing out that the closure problem in the CGE models extends well beyond the problem of how to incorporate autonomous investments into a CGE model. Several closure rules are discussed in this paper and their diverse outcomes are illustrated by numerical models calibrated on statistical data. First, the analyses are done in a one-sector model, similar to Sen’s, but extended into a model of an open economy. Next, the same analyses are repeated using a fully-fledged multi-sectoral CGE model, calibrated on the same statistical data. Comparing the results obtained by the two models it is shown that although they generate quite similar results in terms of the direction and — to a somewhat lesser extent — of the magnitude of change in the main macro variables using the same closure option, the predictions of the multi-sectoral CGE model are clearly more realistic and balanced.

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Akbulut, Hale, and Hüseyin Taylan Eğen. "Import Tariffs and Informal Labour Market: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis for Turkey." Review of Economic Analysis 13, no. 2 (June 28, 2021): 213–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i2.4046.

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From the 1980s to onwards trade liberalization policies have been widely used in many countries. This process has significant impacts on many economic aspects one of which is on the labour market. However, the direction of the relationship between trade reforms and the labour market is controversial. This study aims to analyse the effects of a specific trade reform of import tariff changes on the formal and informal labour market for Turkey. For that purpose, we benefit from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model that relies on nonlinear simultaneous equations. We construct an updated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which is compatible with our model. Our findings indicate that while there is a positive relationship between formal labour employment in total and import tariff rates, the negative relationship occurs between informal employment and tariff rates.

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Bauer, Dana Marie, and Ian Sue Wing. "Economic Consequences of Pollinator Declines: A Synthesis." Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 39, no. 3 (October 2010): 368–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1068280500007371.

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This paper surveys the literature on pollinator declines and related concerns regarding global food security. Methods for valuing the economic risks associated with pollinator declines are also reviewed. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is introduced to assess the effects of a global catastrophic loss of pollinators. There appears to be evidence supporting a trend towards future pollinator shortages in the United States and other regions of the world. Results from the CGE model show economic risks to both direct crop sectors and indirect noncrop sectors in the economy, with some amount of regional heterogeneity.

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Phomsoda, Korrakot, Nattapong Puttanapong, and Mongkut Piantanakulchai. "Economic Impacts of Thailand’s Biofuel Subsidy Reallocation Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model." Energies 14, no. 8 (April 18, 2021): 2272. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14082272.

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For two decades, the Thai government has been promoting ethanol and biodiesel consumption through tax measures and price subsidies. Although this policy has substantially increased the consumption and production of biofuels, there is concern regarding its future fiscal burden. Due to fiscal constraints, the Thai government has planned to completely terminate the biofuel subsidy by 2022. This study aims at examining the economy-wide impacts of removing the biofuel subsidy and also conducting simulations of alternative scenarios, i.e., improving the yield of energy crops and reallocating the burden to expand capital investment in energy crop plantations. A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used as the main quantitative method to conduct four simulation scenarios. This model was validated by comparing the simulation results with the actual 2015–2019 data and showed low values of root mean square error (RMSE). The simulation results indicate that solely terminating the price subsidy would lead to economy-wide contraction. Meanwhile, eliminating the price subsidy along with influencing crop yield improvement and expanding capital investment in energy crop plantations would lead to the lowest negative impacts. Therefore, the termination of the price subsidy should be simultaneously implemented with supply-side expansions.

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Farajzadeh, Zakariya, and Mohammad Bakhshoodeh. "Economic and environmental analyses of Iranian energy subsidy reform using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model." Energy for Sustainable Development 27 (August 2015): 147–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2015.06.002.

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Muhammad Taali, Triana Prihatinta, and Ardila Prihadyatama. "PENUAAN POPULASI DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI MAKRO JANGKA PANJANG DI ASIA TIMUR." MANAJEMEN 1, no. 2 (October 29, 2021): 204–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.51903/manajemen.v1i2.140.

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This study will examine the impact of the population aging phenomenon on innovation and long-term macroeconomic balance in several East Asian countries. The variables used in this study include the number of elderly population, population growth, income per capita, birth rate, death rate, institutional quality, education level, unemployment rate and gross national expenditure. The data analysis method that will be used is the Monash-China Hunan-University General Equilibrium (MC-HUGE) model which is the development of the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The MC-HUGE model is built on the Walrasian general equilibrium theory and input-output theory, including the three main elements in production activities, namely land, capital and labor.

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KARIM, Mohamed, and Mohamed EL MOUSSAOUI. "Education and Poverty in Morocco: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro-simulation Analysis." Journal of Economics and Public Finance 6, no. 1 (February 25, 2020): p116. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v6n1p116.

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The paper uses a micro-simulation computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyze the impact on poverty of public spending in higher education in Morocco. The model incorporates 7062 households derived from the 2007 National Survey on Household Living Standards (ENNVM). Two scenarios are simulated: a 100% reduction in the unit cost of higher education supported by households and a 50% reduction in public spending on higher education. In this study, it is assumed that the investment behavior of households is linked to the share of the unit cost financed by the government in higher education. The results show that the policy of exempting households from bearing any unit cost of higher education encourages them to invest massively in education, which leads to increasing their income and consequently improving welfare and reducing poverty and inequalities. On the other hand, the reduction in public investment in higher education affects negatively the behavior of households to invest in education which leads to a decrease in welfare, an increase in poverty and a rise of inequalities.

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Narayan, Paresh Kumar. "An econometric model of the determinants of private investment and a CGE model of the impact of democracy on investment and economic growth in Fiji." International Journal of Social Economics 35, no. 12 (October 17, 2008): 1017–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/03068290810911525.

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to construct an econometric model of the determinants of private investment with a particular focus on the impact of democracy on investment.Design/methodology/approachThe first step was to econometrically derive the long‐run elasticities; then to modify the Fiji computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate the investment function. Also the econometrically derived long run elasticities in the CGE model were used.FindingsIt was found that democracy has a positive and statistically significant impact on private investment in Fiji. The paper's simulation of Fiji becoming a fully democratic country on investment and other macroeconomic fundamentals, based on a CGE model, reveals that real gross domestic product and real national welfare increase by around 0.01 and 0.05 per cent, respectively; government savings and revenue performance improves; there is a trade balance surplus; and both private consumption and disposable income increase by around 0.05 and 0.12 per cent, respectively.Originality/valueThis is the first study that uses a CGE model to examine the impact of democracy, via investment, on other macroeconomic fundaments. No other study is known to have modelled democracy in a CGE framework.

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Dwyer, Larry, Peter Forsyth, and Ray Spurr. "Inter-Industry Effects of Tourism Growth: Implications for Destination Managers." Tourism Economics 9, no. 2 (June 2003): 117–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/000000003101298303.

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The study of the economic contribution of tourism has recently undergone a ‘paradigm shift’ as a result of the use of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models in place of input–output models. In a CGE model which incorporates a realistic set of economy-wide constraints, the effects of tourism growth on destination income and employment cannot be anticipated a priori. The development and application of this superior technique have major implications for the way that tourism economists must now think about the economic impacts of tourism and for the policy advice they give to decision makers in both the public and private sectors. This paper explores three areas in which CGE modelling has relevance for the destination management organization: tourism planning, cooperative destination marketing, and assessment of destination competitiveness.

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Hossain, Syed Shoyeb, and Huang Delin. "Technology Implication of Agricultural Sectors in China: A CGE Analysis Based on CHINAGEM Model." Journal of Agricultural Science 11, no. 17 (October 15, 2019): 75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jas.v11n17p75.

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The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and the supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the improvement of agricultural technology plays a vital role in China for economic development. Technological change in agricultural sector results in higher future economic growth as well as food security, both in food consumption and availability. By constructing China’s agriculture general equilibrium model (CGE), this paper explains the impact of agricultural technology change. This paper constructs a dynamic CGE model based on CHINAGEM model for analyzing the technology increase in China Agricultural sector and then describes the construction of database and policy scenario. Model such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is used to conduct analysis of the economy-wide impacts of new agricultural technologies in China. In the general equilibrium model, some external variables are established; any part of structural changes caused by its exogenous variables can affect the entire system, resulting in general changes of goods, prices and quantity of factor. Simulation result of this paper indicates the agriculture sector output increases respectively; employment decreases; production cost decreases; and investment increases. Finally this paper describes the effects of the policy of technology changes by comparing policy scenario to baseline scenario and explains the impact of technology changes in China economy using CHINAGEM model.

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Xu, Ping, Weiyu Wang, and Chunxia Wei. "Economic and Environmental Effects of Public Transport Subsidy Policies: a Spatial CGE Model of Beijing." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2018 (June 14, 2018): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3843281.

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Public transport plays an important role in the environment. This study established a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model to examine the economic and environmental effects of public transport subsidy policies. The model includes firms, consumers, and traffic modules in one framework. Statistical data from Beijing were used in calibration to obtain benchmark equilibrium. Based on the equilibrium, simulations compared citywide social welfare, jobs-housing spatial population distribution, and environmental outputs under four subsidy policies: fare subsidy, cash grants, road expansion, and public transport speedup. Based on the results regarding the effects of public transport policies, conclusions can be drawn about which policies will have greater overall social influence and should therefore be used.

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Erero, Jean Luc. "Contribution of VAT to economic growth: A dynamic CGE analysis." Journal of Economics and Management 43 (2021): 22–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.22367/jem.2021.43.02.

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Aim/purpose – This study sought to assess the impact of an increased historical fixed VAT rate of 14% to the current rate of 15% on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach – The method applied in this study was based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impact of both the VAT rate of 14% and a new rate of 15% on the South African economy. The CGE model has been proven over the years to be a suitable model when evaluating the impact assessment of any shock within an economy. Enhancements were made by the researcher to the direct and indirect tax section of the model, i.e., the direct tax section was disaggregated, such that for both firm and household revenues, a dividend income stream is separated from other income streams. The main reason is to facilitate a detailed analysis of Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT), as well as the latest implemented Dividend Tax (DT). Findings – When VAT was increased from 14% to 15%, the immediate reaction of the shock from the Dynamic CGE model indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.0002% in 2018, but increased by 0.0028% in the following year (2019). The trend continued until 2021, hence the 1% increase in the VAT tax rate will increase the expected forecast of VAT collection by approximately R3.2 billion on average. Research implications/limitations – The findings of this study will be implemented by the South African government, which will use a dynamic CGE model to assess South Africa’s VAT contribution to the economy. The database of the CGE model was limited to the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2015. Originality/value/contribution – The study recommends the use of this method for assessing the impact of tax policy changes to the South African economy. The CGE model seems to be the best model as far as the impact assessment of a shock in the econ- omy is concerned. This will assist the South African authorities with their decision mak- ing regarding future VAT revenue. Keywords: South African Revenue Service (SARS), Value Added tax (VAT), Dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. JEL Classification: H21, C68, E62.

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Roos, Elizabeth Louisa, and Philip David Adams. "Fiscal reform: a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia." International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management 14, no. 4 (June 7, 2021): 812–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/imefm-05-2020-0223.

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Purpose This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Design/methodology/approach Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the KSA, three simulations are run. The first simulation is the baseline simulation, which generates growth paths of the Saudi economy in the absence of tax reform. In developing the baseline simulation, this study incorporates forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The remaining simulations are policy simulations. A policy simulation deviates from the baseline simulation in response to a policy change. In the first policy simulation, this study introduces a value-added tax (VAT) that generates SAR 35bn. This study assumes budget neutrality with the additional tax revenue transferred to households via a lump sum payment. In the second policy simulation, this study introduces a corporate income tax that generates SAR 35bn. This study then calculates and compares the distortion these taxes introduce into the economy. Findings This study finds that although the introduction of new taxes increases government tax revenue, markets are distorted lowering efficiency and production. An introduction of VAT increases the cost of consumption relative to the cost of production. As a consequence, the real cost of labour increases lowering employment in the short run. Employment moves to the baseline, as wages adjust capital and real gross domestic product (GDP) is below base throughout the simulation period. The second simulation is an increase in the corporate tax rate with lowers the post-tax rates of return investors receive. This simulation shows that the negative impact on investment, capital and GDP is larger with the introduction of a corporate tax than with the VAT. Research limitations/implications Literature focusing on tax policy reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council and, specifically, Saudi Arabia is limited. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the following: understanding the impact and mechanisms through which changes in taxation impact the economy more generally; understanding the potential harm caused to allocative efficiency and production due to taxes; and ways in which fiscal reform might complement other reforms such as efforts to diversify the economy, labour market and energy price reforms. This improves the information base available to policymakers charged with designing an optimal tax system that meets all future requirements of a country such as the KSA. Originality/value The authors developed and applied a CGE model for the KSA to analyse the impact of VAT and corporate tax on the Saudi economy. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no recent CGE models for Saudi Arabia that have been used for tax policy or quantifying the potential harm to the economy when new taxes are introduced.

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Yin, Jieting, Qingyou Yan, Kaijie Lei, Tomas Baležentis, and Dalia Streimikiene. "Economic and Efficiency Analysis of China Electricity Market Reform Using Computable General Equilibrium Model." Sustainability 11, no. 2 (January 11, 2019): 350. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11020350.

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China’s electricity industry has been undergoing a process of regulatory reform. This study aims to analyse the impact of liberalization on the electricity market assuming different degrees of scope of the reforms by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. In this paper, we consider the three sub-sectors of the electricity industry, namely generation, transmission and distribution. We assume that the reform will phase out the entry barriers on the generation side and allow for competition on the distribution side, while keeping the transmission side under regulation. The results showed that the reform could enhance efficiency in the electricity sector and reduce energy prices for households. Introduction of a complete competition model would decrease welfare by 5.394 billion yuan, if contrasted to a limited competition model. The composite energy price would decline under both scenarios, whereas the quantity of energy consumed by the households would go up. This research, thus, contributes to literature on the economic effects of China’s electric power market reform, and can be used as a case study to support policy decisions for the decision-makers.

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Ihalanayake, Ranjith. "Tourism taxes and negative externalities in tourism in australia: A CGE approach." Corporate Ownership and Control 10, no. 4 (2013): 200–214. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv10i4c1art4.

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In this paper we analyse general equilibrium effects of an increase in a tourism tax which we hypothetically designed to internalise negative externalities of international tourism in Australia. Several simulations were carried out using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The simulations were carried out assuming two different economic environments, the short-run and the long-run. The simulation results suggest that due to an increase in tourism taxes, the international tourism sector tends to contract while the other sectors expand. Overall, an increase in tourism taxes appears to be welfare improving in the long-run though it generates a marginal contraction in overall economic activities in the short run.

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Xie, W., N. Li, J. D. Wu, and X. L. Hao. "Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 4 (April 8, 2014): 757–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-757-2014.

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Abstract. Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

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Feltenstein, Andrew, Mark Rider, David L. Sjoquist, and John V. Winters. "Reducing Property Taxes on Homeowners." Public Finance Review 45, no. 4 (September 9, 2016): 484–510. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1091142116667210.

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We consider a proposal that reduces by half the taxes on homesteaded properties and replaces the lost revenue by increasing the base and rate of the state sales tax. We develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a microsimulation model (MSM) to analyze the economic and welfare effects of such a proposal if adopted in Georgia. The results from the CGE model suggest that the proposed reforms have a substantial negative effect in percentage terms on Georgia’s economy. The MSM suggests that such a policy has no effect on the distribution of consumption by income class but increases the percentage of owner-occupied housing relative to rental housing by 20 percent in the aggregate.

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Takeda, Shiro, and Toshi H. Arimura. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of environmental tax reform in Japan with a forward-looking dynamic model." Sustainability Science 16, no. 2 (January 29, 2021): 503–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00903-4.

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AbstractThe Japanese government plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. However, it is not yet clear which policy measures the government will adopt to achieve this goal. In this regard, environmental tax reform, which is the combination of carbon regulation and the reduction of existing distortionary taxes, has attracted much attention. This paper examines the effects of an environmental tax reform in Japan. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we analyze the quantitative impacts of an environmental tax reform and clarify which types of environmental tax reform are the most desirable. In the simulation, we introduce a carbon tax and consider the following four scenarios for the use of the carbon tax revenue: (1) a lump-sum rebate to the household, (2) a cut in income taxes, (3) a cut in corporate taxes and (4) a cut in consumption taxes. The first scenario is a pure carbon tax, and the other three scenarios are types of environmental tax reform. Our CGE simulation shows that (1) environmental tax reform tends to generate more desirable impacts than the pure carbon tax and that (2) the strong double dividend is obtained in some cases. In particular, we show that a cut in corporate taxes leads to the most desirable policy in terms of GDP and national income.

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Bosello, Francesco, Fabio Eboli, Ramiro Parrado, Paolo A. D. L. Nunes, Helen Ding, and Renato Rosa. "La valoración económica de cambios en servicios del ecosistema: Una aplicación de la metodología CGE." Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales 11, no. 1 (October 31, 2011): 161. http://dx.doi.org/10.7201/earn.2011.01.08.

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<span>The present study integrates Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling with biodiversity services, proposing a possible methodology for assessing climate-change impacts on ecosystems. The assessment focuses on climate change impacts on carbon sequestration services provided by European forest, cropland and grassland ecosystems and on provisioning services, but provided by forest and cropland ecosystems only. To do this via a CGE model it is necessary to identify first the role that these ecosystem services play in marketable transactions; then how climate change can impact these services; and finally how the economic system reacts to those changes by adjusting demand and supply across sectors, domestically and internationally.</span>

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Dixon, Peter B., Maureen Rimmer, and Nhi Tran. "Creating a Disaggregated CGE Model for Trade Policy Analysis: GTAP-MVH." Foreign Trade Review 55, no. 1 (January 31, 2020): 42–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0015732519886785.

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Thousands of economists spread across almost every country use the GTAP model to analyse trade policies including trade wars and trade agreements. GTAP has an impressive regional coverage (140 countries), but the standard commodity coverage (57 commodities/industries) can cause frustration when tariffs on narrowly defined products are being negotiated. This article sets out a method for disaggregating commodities/industries in computable general equilibrium models such as GTAP and applies it to GTAP’s motor vehicle sector. The method makes use of readily available highly disaggregated trade data supplemented by detailed input–output data where available and data from a variety of other sources such as commercial market reports. JEL Codes: C68, F13, F14, F17

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Fang, Guohua, Ting Wang, Xinyi Si, Xin Wen, and Yu Liu. "Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Water Resources and Water Environments." Water 8, no. 9 (September 21, 2016): 413. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w8090413.

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Decaluwé, Bernard, André Lemelin, and David Bahan. "Endogenous Labour Supply with Several Occupational Categories in a Bi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model." Regional Studies 44, no. 10 (July 5, 2010): 1401–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00343401003713324.

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Njoya, Eric Tchouamou, and Ahmad Muhammad Ragab. "Economic Impacts of Public Air Transport Investment: A Case Study of Egypt." Sustainability 14, no. 5 (February 24, 2022): 2651. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14052651.

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This paper applies an input–output (I-O) approach and a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the economy-wide short- and long-run impacts of an increase in public capital investment in air transport infrastructure. The results of the I-O analysis reveal that air transport has above-average backward linkages with other sectors in the economy, with mining being the most intensive industry in intermediate input demand for air transport. The results of the CGE simulation show that at the macroeconomic level, expanding public air transport stock induces modest growth in GDP, employment, income, consumption, private investment, and trade. The findings show that the estimated impact of air transport investment is lower than estimated in studies on the “multiplier effect” of the investment using partial equilibrium techniques.

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Ochuodho, Thomas O., and Van A. Lantz. "Economic impacts of climate change in the forest sector: a comparison of single-region and multiregional CGE modeling frameworks." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, no. 5 (May 2014): 449–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2013-0317.

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Climate change impacts on forests are largely expected to intensify over the next few decades. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling is increasingly becoming a popular tool for assessing these impacts. Previous analyses in this area have been based on either single-region or multiregional CGE model specifications, each with their own advantages and disadvantages. To date, however, there has been no systematic comparison of the potential differences in economic impact estimates between the two CGE model specifications. To examine the extent of these potential differences, we conducted a comparative economic impact analysis of climate change in the forest sector across Canadian provinces, the United States, and the rest of the world using dynamic, single-region and multiregional CGE models over the 2006–2051 period. Results revealed that, within each region, different model specifications produced unique economic impact estimates, differing by as much as 18% under each climate change scenario considered. Overall, a majority of Canadian regions recorded smaller (in absolute value terms) and more positive economic impacts using single-region models compared with the multiregional model. Differences in international trade specifications between models, together with unique climate change impact considerations across regions, played key roles in the findings. While few general conclusions emerge from this analysis, it is clear that CGE model specifications can have a significant effect on regional economic impact estimates of climate change in the forest sector. Thus, caution is advised when using the estimates of any one CGE model for policy purposes.

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Winchester, Niven, and Sebastian Rausch. "A Numerical Investigation of the Potential for Negative Emissions Leakage." American Economic Review 103, no. 3 (May 1, 2013): 320–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.320.

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Emissions restrictions in one region may decrease emissions elsewhere (negative leakage), as increased demand for capital and labor to abate emissions in constrained regions may reduce output in unconstrained regions. We investigate leakage in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models under alternative fossil fuel supply elasticity values and factor mobility assumptions. We find that fossil fuel supply elasticities must be equal or close to infinity to generate net negative leakage. As empirical estimates for fossil fuel supply elasticities are less than 1, we conclude that leakage estimates from CGE models are unlikely to be negative.

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Jung, Jaewon. "The Effects of China’s Participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP): A Quantitative Assessment." Sustainability 15, no. 1 (December 26, 2022): 344. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15010344.

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This paper aims to quantify the effects of China’s participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), in particular by focusing on the possible productivity effects through the endogenous assignment of skills to technologies. In this paper, we develop a large-scale global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in which firms are heterogeneous in technologies and workers are heterogeneous in individual skill levels so that equilibrium skill–technology assignments are endogenously determined. This study contributes to the literature with the new CGE modeling and application to the recent important issue in international trade. By calibrating the model to 23 countries and regions, we quantify the effects of China’s participation in the CPTPP. Due to the positive real productivity effects and the reallocation of workers, the results show that China’s participation in the CPTPP may generate significantly higher productivity, GDP, and welfare effects compared to previous conventional CGE models based on simplistic representative agent frameworks at a given productivity. Globally, on average, the real productivity of the manufacturing sector, the number of exporting firms, real GDP, and welfare increase by 0.52%, 19.62%, 1.36%, and USD 3.41 billion, respectively.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model'

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