Academic literature on the topic 'Independence and autonomy'

ABSTRACT This study aims to examine the effect of Regional Original Revenue, Balancing Funds, Special Autonomy Funds, and poverty levels on the level of local financial independence. The research data used is a combination of cross section with time series in 23 regencies / cities in Aceh Province during 2013-2018, obtained from the Budget Realization Report (LRA) issued by the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance of the Ministry of Finance (DJPK Ministry of Finance). The data analysis method used is Panel Data Regression with the help of Eviews 9. The results of this study prove that the Regional Original Revenue has a positive and significant effect on the level of regional financial independence, while the balance funds and special autonomy funds have a negative and significant effect on the level of regional financial independence. The poverty does not significantly influence the level of regional financial independence. Keywords : Regional Original Revenue, Balancing Fund, Special Autonomy Funds, Poverty Levels and Financial Independency Ratio

A well-functioning system of local self-government is impossible without financial independence of municipalities. The article deals with the contents of the financial autonomy of municipalities. The analysis of financial autonomy of municipalities and the degree of their dependence on intergovernmental transfers is done.

Independence of judiciary is something which is indispensable for the smooth running of a democracy. Judicial system is one which should be free of pressures of fear or favour. There have been various measures taken in different countries for the protection of the independent stance of the judicial system. There are constitutional as well as other means which work towards the independent working, however that hasn’t prevented various attacks on the autonomic working of the judicial body. In India there has been instances with one significant one, wherein there was an attempt to encroach upon the autonomy of judiciary, but it was remedied by the Courts thereby rescuing its own independence. But there have also been allegations regarding the Courts being “too independent” and hence, “counter majoritarian”. The article will be a study and analysis of the aforementioned topics and issues.

Tulisan ini membahas mengenai bagaimana independensi dan akuntabilitas Ombudsman Republik Indonesia (ORI) dalam menjalankan tugasnya terhadap potensi intervensi dari Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR). Metode yang digunakan yaitu pendekatan kualitatif, dengan teknik pengumpulan data studi kepustakaan, dan teknik analisis data melalui teknik deskriptif analitis kualitatif. Berdasarkan penilaian melalui Instrument Institutional design and governance, Actual autonomy in exercising its mandate dari Westminster Foundation For Democracy (WFD) terdapat beberapa penilaian independensi dan akuntabilitas yang rendah, yaitu pada: (1) sufficiency of financial resources for performing its functions; (2) extent of autonomy to generate its own financial revenues; (3) security and stability of budget during past three years; dan (4) stability of staff and extent of staff turn-over. Ke depan ORI harus memperbaiki beberapa skor rendah independensi dan akuntabilitas dengan relasi kelembagaannya kepada DPR. Abstract This paper discusses the independence and accountability of the Ombudsman of the Republic of Indonesia (ORI) in carrying out their duties regarding potential intervention from the People’s Representative Council (DPR). A method is a qualitative approach, with library research data collection techniques and data analysis techniques through qualitative analytical descriptive techniques. Based on an assessment through the Instrument Institutional design and governance, Actual autonomy in exercising its mandate from the Westminster Foundation For Democracy (WFD), there are several assessments of independence and low accountability, namely on: (1) sufficiency of financial resources for performing its functions; (2) the extent of autonomy to generate its financial revenues; (3) security and stability of the budget during the past three years; and (4) stability of staff and extent of staff turn-over. In the future, ORI must improve several low scores on independence and accountability with its institutional relationship with the DPR. Keywords: Ombudsman of the Republic of Indonesia, independence, accountability, Power, Control

Thesis (DPsych) -- School of Life and Social Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, 2006.<br>Submitted in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of the Doctorate in Counselling Psychology, School of Life and Social Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, 2006. Includes bibliographical references (p. 233-244).

This thesis assesses several theories about the social basis of the Quebec independence movement. The most prevalent of these theories locates the core of support for Quebec independence in the Francophone new middle class. The Marxist perspective offers a closely related hypothesis, according to which the independence movement is based in the Francophone new petite bourgeoisie. A third theory sees the new class as at the helm of the new social movements, among which is the Quebec independence movement. Finally, a fourth hypothesis is that the Francophone intellectuals and professional intelligentsia are the foremost separatists.<br>The results of tabular and logistic regression analysis of data on referendum support for sovereignty-association refute the new middle class and new petite bourgeoisie hypotheses. The analyses indicate considerable support for sovereignty-association among a narrow variant of the new class. Within this narrow new class, or professional intelligentsia, support for sovereignty is most heavily concentrated among the Francophone intellectuals. The most discriminating predictor of separatism is not class, but the opposition between those in intellectuals vs. the business/managerial occupations. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Can national liberation movements envisage self-rule without statehood? This research examines the politics of a national liberation movement that claims to do just that. The research focuses on the incessant quest for self-rule in Kurdistan in general and the politics of dominant Kurdish liberation movements in Turkey and Syria in particular – with regard to the kind of political community they aspire to found. The research reveals that a salient aspect of Kurdish politics has been its detachment from state-building, and that this aspect dominates the politics of Kurdish movements in Turkey and Syria. Likewise, their project for self-rule in Kurdistan envisages a political community that differs greatly from its competitors; i.e. the hegemonic nation-state and its main opposition Islamic Ummah. I note that the Kurdish model draws heavily on the growing literature in political theory about the inadequacy of representative institutions and the risks of appealing to the notion of national sovereignty. I emphasize that the project shifts the origin of sovereignty from 'the imagined community', i.e. the nation, to residential communities (note the plurality). I also highlight that the Kurdish model of political community is built upon the exercise of political power through direct and semi-direct forms of democracy. Popular councils and assemblies within municipalities appear as the ultimate regulatory institutions. Sovereignty, thus, is dispersed and fragmented throughout autonomous, yet co-existing, and ideally horizontally organized political entities such as towns and cities. Accordingly, the primary form of political organization is not territorial state, but autonomous municipality. I argue that the claim to self-rule in the model is not in the name of the nation, but of communities of settlement, e.g. villages, neighbourhoods, towns, and cities. In a world of nationstates, the Kurdish movements' politics is an interesting example of post-nationalist and post-sovereign claims.

The nature of human well-being has been debated in psychological research since the beginning of the study of human behaviour. Mechanistic perspectives regard humans to be independent objects motivated by external contingencies, with needs to be both self sufficient and self-enhancing. Organismic perspectives describe humans as having innate self-organisational tendencies, which partly depend on qualities of relationships with others. Basic needs for well-being include being self-determined and socially integrated. Both perspectives claim empirical support. Drawing on Self-Determination Theory (SDT), the present study proposed that basic needs for well-being include autonomy and relatedness, and ego-defensive needs that undermine health include independence, control and narcissism. To compare the effects of different needs on well-being, the present study measured people's perceived needs and the satisfaction of those needs, within the context of interpersonal interactions. Participants were sourced from the student population at a Melbourne university (N = 82), and various internet website forums (N= 171). Included were 82 participants who had received a diagnosis of social anxiety in the past two years. A new measure, the Interpersonal Needs Scale (INS) was developed to tap the strength of values for the five needs of interest, and the degree to which needs are satisfied. Factor analysis on the INS produced four value subscales: these were named Authenticity and Belonging, comprising autonomy and relatedness items, and Independence and Narcissism, both including Control items. The fmal version of the INS showed satisfactory reliability and validity. Results for Study 1 indicated that for the present sample, Authenticity and Belonging values were associated with overall interpersonal need satisfaction and with well-being. Conversely, Independence and Narcissistic values were associated with dissatisfaction of interpersonal needs and compromised well-being. For Study 2, cluster analysis was used to group participants according to their INS profiles: that is, similarities in their perceived needs and their degree of satisfaction of needs. In line with predictions, the groups included: the Selfother Balanced (N = 42), who reported significantly greater values for authenticity and belonging over independence and narcissism, and overall need satisfaction; the Slightly Lonely (N = 53), who reported similar value ranking but some dissatisfaction of needs; the Satisfied Narcissists (N = 45), who reported high values for ego-defensive needs and satisfaction of narcissistic needs only; the Needy Narcissists (N= 81), who also reported high values for ego-defensive needs but high overall need dissatisfaction; and the Individualists (N = 27), who reported low values for belonging and unsatisfied independence needs. The characteristics of each group were analysed and compared with each other according to a range of self-concept measures (autonomous-self, relational self, independent-self, and narcissistic personality), indicators of psychological wellbeing (depression, anxiety, stress, and self-esteem), and social well-being (alienation). The Self-other Balanced group reported the highest well-being scores and a predominantly autonomous self-concept, while those who reported low values for belonging needs (Individualists), and those who reported the least satisfaction of interpersonal needs (Needy Narcissists), reported the most compromised well-being. A large proportion of respondents with social anxiety belonged to the latter group. The implications of these results for understanding the impact of values and the satisfaction of interpersonal needs on well-being were discussed.

Scientific literature, across different disciplines, has indicated a significant impact of the concept of masculinity in the lives of men, including psychological well-being. Although many quantitative studies have constructed different perspectives around the subject matter, qualitative studies have only started to investigate the phenomenon. The present phenomenological research investigated the experience of masculinity by men from a contextualist epistemological viewpoint. The participants were 7 men of ages 29 to 59. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in order to produce analysable transcripts of the men’s experience. The transcript data were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Six Master themes emerged that illustrated the contexts within which the experience of masculinity might have been experienced: Being Masculine, The Self Towards Superiority, What is Masculinity, The Emotional World, Other Men and The Other Gender. These themes represent interpretations of the men’s experience addressing structural, functional, developmental, personal and interpersonal aspects of experienced masculinity. Of particular interest was the pervasiveness of the concept of power throughout the Master themes and through many of their Constituent themes. Illustrative accounts are quoted in order to illuminate how the men experienced masculinity to be impacting their lives. It is also argued that the new and rich understandings gained from this study might help Counselling Psychologists to better help their clients address masculinity related issues and to accept and define their own way of being men.

Bakgrund: Det råder en begränsad konsensus gällande en universell definition av begreppet självständig bland arbetsterapeuter, trots ett dagligt användande av begreppet. Forskningen visar på två beskrivningar av funktionsnedsättningar (medicinsk modellbeskrivning som utgår från fysisk kapacitet och social modellbeskrivning som betonar möjlighet till val, kontroll och självbestämmande) som i sin tur påverkar synen på självständighetsbegreppet. Ingen tidigare forskning är funnen som beskriver hur personer med lindrig intellektuell funktionsnedsättning uppfattar begreppet och deras upplevelser av att vara självständig respektive inte självständig/beroende. En betydelsefull kunskap för att kunna arbeta klientcentrerat. Syfte: Syftet är att beskriva hur personer med lindrig intellektuell funktionsnedsättning uppfattar begreppet självständig och vilka upplevelser de har av att vara självständiga respektive inte vara självständiga/beroende. Material och metod: Deltagarna i studien blev strategiskt valda utifrån ändamålsenligt urval. Individuella semi-strukturerade intervjuer gjordes med tio personer med lindrig intellektuell funktionsnedsättning (fem kvinnor, fem män i åldrarna 22-65 år) via Skype. Intervjuerna analyserandes utifrån kvalitativ innehållsanalys. Resultat: Personer med lindrig intellektuell funktionsnedsättning anser att självständig betyder; att klara saker själv, att man kan vara självständig trots hjälp, att bestämma över sitt eget liv samt att hjälpa andra – vara kompetent. Upplevelser av att vara självständig är en förutsättning för att känna frihet. De beror på faktorer som personens inre resurser och en möjliggörande omgivning. Att inte vara självständig, känna sig beroende upplevs då man inte klarar, behärskar saker/situationer och inte blir lyssnad på. Nedsatt hälsa leder också till upplevelse av beroende. Slutsats: Självständig i betydelsen att bestämma över sitt eget liv är avgörande för upplevelsen av att vara självständig. Ju större begränsningar i självbestämmandet desto lägre upplevelse av att vara självständig och vice versa. Självständig trots hjälp, förutsätter ett partnerskap (ömsesidigt beroende) mellan personen och hjälparen. När man hjälper andra är man kompetent och självständig. Betydelse: Arbetsterapeuter bör uppmärksammas på att identifiera och stödja aktiviteter där personer med lindrig intellektuell funktionsnedsättning ges möjlighet att hjälpa andra och betyda något för någon annan.<br>Background: There is a limited consensus regarding a universal definition of the concept independent among occupational therapists, despite the daily use of the concept. The research shows two descriptions of disabilities (medical model description based on physical capacity and social model description that emphasizes the possibility of choice, control and self-determination) which in turn affects the view of the concept of independence. No previous research has been found that describes how persons with mild intellectual disability perceive the concept and their experiences of being independent and not independent / dependent. An important knowledge to be able to work client-centered.   Aim: The aim is to describe how persons with mild intellectual disability perceive the meaning of independent and what experiences they have of being independent versus not independent/dependent. Material and methods: The participants in the study were strategically selected based on an appropriate selection. Individual semi-structured interviews were performed with ten persons with intellectual disabilities (five women, five men, aged 22-65), by Skype. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Results: Persons with mild intellectual disability believe that independent means; to handle things by yourself, that one can be independent despite recieving help, to make one’s own life decisions and to help others - be competent. Experiences of being independent is a qualification for feeling freedom. It depends on factors like the person's internal resources and an enabling environment. Not being independent, feeling dependent is perceived when you cannot cope, master things/situations and are not being listened to. Reduced health also entiles  experiencing dependence. Conclusions: To be independent, in the sense of making one’s own life decisions, is central for the experience of feeling independent. The more one’s self-determination is limited, the less one experiences being independent and vice versa. Independent despite help, presupposes a partnership (interdependence) between the person and the helper. When you help others - you are competent and independent. Significance: Occupational therapists should be alerted to identifying and supporting activities where persons with mild intellectual disabilities are given the opportunity to help others and mean something to someone else.

Economic empowerment is a potential strategy to improve women’s autonomy in the Global South. The emergence of export-oriented factories in urban areas, such as Phnom Penh, the capital city of Cambodia, have created forms of low wage labour, such as garment work, as drivers of social, political and economic change. This study documents the experiences and perceptions of female workers in the low wage garment industry in Cambodia. Through in-depth qualitative interviews with a cohort of low wage garment workers, using a longitudinal methodology, this project examines how rural women’s migration to the city to engage in paid employment contributes to perceptions of autonomy in their personal lives as well as in their workplaces. The study utilises the capability approach framework suggested by Amarty Sen (1985) as an analytical tool to understand whether female rural-urban migrants achieve capabilities and experience flourishing as a result of paid employment. This study finds, in agreement with at least some current research, that women’s access to low wage employment does not necessarily contribute to their improved autonomy in the workplace. However, factory work contributes much to a transformation in women’s future work potentialities and personal lives. The women interviewed in this study gained autonomy in identifiable areas, such as opportunities for self-improvement by acquiring new skills. In relation to women’s personal lives, this study shows work in the garment sector can create a space for women where they can challenge traditional social and cultural norms by asserting their autonomy in choosing partners/husbands, renegotiating parental expectations, and reorganising the gendered patterns of domestic labour within their households. This study also notes that strong social and cultural norms persist as forms of social protection, and therefore female rural-urban migrant workers cannot fully experience life outside those norms. This can compromise the potential of economic transformation to completely change patriarchal social norms and their impacts on the lives of Khmer women.

Why is independence a central theme for proponents of assisted living facilities? How do assisted living providers respond to this theme? These questions are pursued in an ethnographic study centered on Oregon's assisted living program. Assisted living facilities (ALF), defined and monitored by Oregon's Senior and Disabled Services Division (SDSD), are a type of housing for disabled, primarily elderly, persons. Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR-411-56) define independence, requiring ALF providers to support resident independence. Using social worlds theory as a sensitizing concept, assisted living is treated as a distinct social world. The activities of key groups, including SDSD staff, an ALF professional group, and assisted living managers, are described. These members commit to a “social model” approach to long-term care for which independence is the unifying construct. This approach offers a value-practice “package” that explains how to implement the value of independence (Fujimura, 1997). Three arenas where this package is apparent are described: marketing, manager training, and daily operations. Content analysis of marketing brochures from 63 assisted living facilities shows that independence is a dominant theme, promoted like any other product. These materials indicate that assisted living operators promote resident independence by providing a barrier-free environment, helping residents with daily tasks, and allowing residents control over their decisions. Manager training programs are another arena where the policy value of independence is evident. Here, new managers learn “who we are” and “what we do” in this social world. They learn a new vocabulary and are introduced to tools for daily practice. They learn the boundaries of this social world, and above all, how to behave differently from nursing facilities that they associate with the “medical model.” In daily practice, managers use institutional conventions, including the “negotiated service agreement” and "managed risk agreement." These tools are designed to respond to the tension between supporting independence and providing care to chronically ill, disabled individuals. Observations of marketing, management training, and resident assessments indicate that the social world of assisted living is in a formative stage, as members attempt to define and legitimate who they are and what they do.

The most beautiful, but also the most complicated period in a person�s life is adolescence, because at this age, a series of transformations take place, making the transition from childhood to adulthood. Most teenagers, if they do not have the right guidance in life, can get lost in the thicket of emancipatory opportunities of today�s world, which give them the illusion of freedom, independence and personal autonomy in all aspects of life. A decisive role for the adolescent�s integrative education has always been played by the family, which prepares him to face all the challenges of this world. In contemporary society, we are witnessing to an increasing degree a reversal of the values and principles of a healthy life, whose reality and benefits are proven both by the humanities and medical sciences, but also by the spiritual experiences of man. In the secular world, it is observed that teenagers are encouraged to view their relationship with their parents on an equal footing, in other words, the parents are seen as �friends� and the word �parent� is not used anymore. Specialists in psychopedagogy draw attention to the fact that such an approach creates a vacuum in intrafamily relationships, a confusion with major implications in the life of the teenager, who can slide down the wrong path in life and get lost, because no entourage will be able to take the place of their mother and father or provide them with parental safety, love and understanding. In this study, we used experiential methods, such as case study, making a comparative analysis of the ways of approach in the relationship between parents and adolescents.

The legal regime of the arbitration agreement is dominated by the principle of the autonomy of this agreement. The autonomy of the agreement is manifested by its independence from the the main contract, which in turn determines its independence from the law governing this contract. In principle, the arbitration agreement is subject to the law designated by the parties. In the absence of an express designation by the parties of the law applicable to the agreement, either the law of the seat of arbitration (lex arbitri), or the competent law by virtue of the conflict of laws rules of the forum that examines the existence and validity of the arbitration agreement, or the substantive law of this forum, or the law applicable to the subject matter of the litigation (lex causae) and in particular the law applicable to the main contract (lex contractus) may be applied.

This article explores the growing significance of learner autonomy in modern education, highlighting its essential role in fostering self-directed, self-motivated, and self-regulated learners. It emphasizes how personalized learning, tailored to individual needs and abilities, supports the development of learner autonomy by enabling students to take ownership of their educational journey. The article examines the historical context of learner autonomy, its integration with personalized learning strategies, and the benefits it offers in terms of engagement, critical thinking, and lifelong learning. Challenges such as educator training, equitable access to resources, and effective technology use are also discussed. The importance of creating a supportive educational environment that balances independence with guidance is underscored, alongside the role of digital tools like Learning Management Systems in promoting autonomy. Ultimately, the article concludes that fostering learner autonomy is crucial for preparing students to thrive in a dynamic world, equipping them with the skills to adapt, innovate, and succeed in both academic and professional contexts.

Current challenges in the labor market associated with rapid globalization, digitalization, and skills gaps, cause features such as a learning community, opportunities for collaboration, student self-efficacy, social skills, coherent intercultural communication, and self-realization to play a significant role in students’ professional development. Successful interpersonal and social participation in society as well as skills such as independence, self-confidence, decision-making, openness to change, and responsibility, which are emphasized in the definition of professional autonomy, are also fundamental to their development. To prepare university students for the labor market, it is necessary to consider the above and develop students’ professional autonomy to close the gap between students’ theoretical learning and the development of practical professional pursuits. Despite the importance of professional autonomy, its concept in educational sciences is not sufficiently defined and described, as it lacks a theoretical basis. For that reason, this research aims to study the etymology of professional autonomy, the typology of professional autonomy, and how professional autonomy is measured in higher education by conducting a systematic literature analysis. The results of this study reveal divergent definitions of professional autonomy, the scope of its concept, and explain the applicability of tools for measuring professional autonomy in higher education. Additionally, it identifies three levels of professional autonomy: general, collegial, and individual.

This article examines the constitutional status and political evolution of Serbia's autonomous provinces, Vojvodina and Kosovo, following the adoption of the 1974 Constitution of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). The constitution significantly decentralized power by granting the provinces extensive legislative, executive, and judicial authority, nearly equating them with the republics within the SFRY. The central issue explored is whether this constitutional arrangement represented a case of successful regional decentralization or, alternatively, created state fragments that weakened Serbia’s functionality within Yugoslavia. The article begins by discussing broader trends in European governance, highlighting how decentralization has often aimed to increase democratic participation and enhance local governance. However, excessive decentralization can also lead to fragmentation, undermining the cohesion of the state. This theoretical context frames the case of Serbia’s provinces, which, despite remaining formally part of Serbia, acquired considerable autonomy. The text explores how the provinces were integrated into the federal system, with their representatives having the ability to influence federal decisions, sometimes to the detriment of the central authority in Serbia. A key hypothesis is that the provinces’ increased autonomy contributed to the dysfunction of the Serbian republic within Yugoslavia. The 1974 Constitution allowed Vojvodina and Kosovo to develop semi-independent political systems, leading to tensions between these provinces and the central government in Belgrade. This arrangement weakened Serbia's ability to maintain a unified policy across its territory, especially when provincial interests diverged from those of the Serbian central authorities. The article draws comparisons with European examples of regional governance, such as Spain’s autonomous communities (Catalonia and the Basque Country) and Italy’s special-status regions (Sicily, Sardinia, and others). While these countries managed to maintain both regional autonomy and national cohesion, Serbia’s decentralized model under the 1974 Constitution is argued to have contributed to fragmentation. In particular, Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority increasingly sought further autonomy and even independence, leading to political crises that culminated in open conflict by the 1990s. Vojvodina, while less volatile, also experienced tensions over resource control and political representation. The analysis concludes that the extensive autonomy granted to Vojvodina and Kosovo under the 1974 Constitution functioned less as regional decentralization and more as state fragmentation, which ultimately undermined Serbia’s governance capacity. This fragmentation persisted through the 1980s and escalated into conflict during the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Post-Yugoslavia, Serbia's re-centralization of power in the 1990s further strained relations with its provinces, particularly Kosovo, which declared de facto independence following the 1999 NATO intervention. The article reflects on the long-term consequences of these constitutional arrangements, noting that Serbia's current governance model remains marked by tensions between central authority and regional aspirations. The case of Kosovo, which has de facto separated from Serbia, and the limited autonomy of Vojvodina, reflect the enduring challenges of balancing regional autonomy with national unity in post-Yugoslav Serbia.

Through a real time analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic across rural Zimbabwe, this Working Paper explores the competing narratives that framed responses and their politics. Based on 20 moments of reflection over two years, together with ongoing document and media analysis and an intensive period of qualitative interviewing, a complex, dynamic story of the pandemic ‘drama’ emerges, which contrasts with snapshot perspectives. Across the period, a science-led public health narrative intersects with a security and control narrative promoted by the state and is countered by a citizens’ narrative that emphasises autonomy, independence, and local innovation. The politics of this contestation over narratives about appropriate pandemic responses are examined over three periods – reflecting different waves of infection – and in relation to two conjunctures – an early, strict lockdown and the rollout of vaccines. Different narratives gain ascendancy and overlap at different times, but a local citizen-led narrative emerges strongly in the context of heavy-handed lockdowns, inadequate state capacity, and struggles around rural livelihoods. The pandemic has reshaped relationships between the state and citizens in important ways, with self-reliance rooted in local resilience central to local pandemic responses.

This electronic resource contains a critical summary of the problems of sovereign statehood and the responsibility of public authority in the light of an interdisciplinary systemic organic approach. The author reveals the essence and content of the categories “sovereign statehood” and “responsibility of public authority” as key factors of the state legal system for ensuring the life of the Russian Federation in the conditions of the emergence of a new world order. It is shown that the multi-valued category of “statehood” (statehood, stateness, nationhood, nationness) reflects the complexity of the concept, which characterizes the status and ability of the state to carry out its functions, and on the other hand, reflects the cultural-historical and spiritual-ideological unity of society, which is the deepest internal semantic content both preceding the state and completing its sociohistorical formation in the course of state development and historical transformations. Based on the systemic-organic approach and within the framework of the structure of the Aristotelian tetrad, the author reveals an integral model of the political and legal phenomenon of “statehood”, in which the final cause (ethion) is determined by “sovereign statehood”, which presupposes unity, integrity, actual autonomy, independence, independence and self-sufficiency states in making decisions that ensure the historical existence and development of the country. The work presents a theoretical understanding of social (public) solidarity as a legal construct and instrument of social harmony and integrity of the state-legal body of the Russian Federation. It is shown that public solidarity, as a constitutional and administrative-legal phenomenon in its positive and negative forms, creates the necessary basis for the implementation of the principle of mutual responsibility of the individual, society and state. An idea of the responsibilities of the state, its bodies and officials to the individual and society is given, the role and place of public legal responsibility of holders of power in the solidary social mechanism is outlined. In general, the results of interdisciplinary research are aimed at identifying key factors in social theory and practice that contribute to the acquisition of true independence and self-sufficiency of Russian statehood and the preservation of the civilizational foundations of a multinational Russian society. The manual will be useful to undergraduate and graduate students studying social and political sciences, and anyone interested in the theory and practice of government.

After the Cold War, not only the economic discontent created by capitalism and globalization went to the extreme, leaving the environment at the mercy of multinational corporations, but also the perception that the sovereignty, autonomy and independence of nations, and with them, the right to self-determination was increased to a limited extent. In particular, as the global crises of 2008-2009 hit people’s lives hard, the sense of "being left behind" prepared the ground for the demand and supply of populist politics. However, populist governments not only failed to achieve any progress on the main problems complained about, rather the contrary, but primarily right-wing authoritarian-populist governments also worsened the situation by threatening multilateralism, democracy, human rights and the free market economy worldwide. Besides, the Covid-19 pandemic since 2020 posed quite mixed results for the future of populism. While the populists gained strength in the opposition, the right-wing populists in government began to lose power. Therefore, in such an environment, in Brazil, the rise of Lula’s left-wing (and to some extent populist) government to power after defeating a right-wing authoritarian government has potential implications for the future of democracy, human rights, the market economy, and multilateralism. If the Lula government takes a reformist, transformative, and progressive path, it can become a positive role model for other countries under populism threat. However, this article questions the possibility of that under local and global constraints.

The article aims to analyze a complicated process of the society’s main components – elite, mass communication, and masses – in their interaction and interdependence from the historical perspective. Due to industrialization and modernization of the life quality, the social life changes radically, and the essence of every component of the society changes as well. The elite loses its dynastic character. The media stop to play the role of a mediator taking on the obligations of a collective agitator and propagandist, and the mass stops to be cloth for wiping shoes. It starts to form a mass audience and, by that, obtains new forms that must be taken into account by social institutions. Together with that the collective views are substituted by the views which are stronger than the ones of a separate individual. One of the main conclusions of the investigation is as follows. The formation of the “consumer society” and the strengthening of the mass communication role resulted in the appearance of “mediocracy” which factually introduced an absolute elite dependence on it and conferred the right of media to set the social agenda. The mass turned out to be a silent majority, a unity of conformity-oriented people. These people become simultaneously a product of mass communication impact because they dictate what one must read, listen to, and watch from the media menu. They force MMC to satisfy their unassuming needs making the content trivial and commodificated. In other words, the mutual process of the interaction of the media, “impossible independence” and the conscious “communicative consensus” of individuals who are willingly united with the mass audience takes place. The creation of the internet due to “digital anonymity” and the autonomy of the consumer formed the conditions for the self-determined citizens and gave the elite a modest place in the “cyber democracy”. However, the increase in individual self-isolation leads to his gradual loss of “social capital,” and that threatens to replace the direct experience with a virtual environment that will make it very difficult to differentiate reality from fiction. Keywords: elite, mass, media, mass communication, information space, globalization.

Previous research has shown that classroom-based language learning alone may not be sufficient to lead learners to mastery of the target language. For this reason, language learner's self-directed learning or independent language learning, both in the Self-Access Learning Center (SALC) and in authentic situations outside classes, has become an essential component of English language learning, both in the ESL and EFL contexts. The main objective of this research was to investigate the use of a self-access language learning center by 515 Chulalongkorn University students who were required to earn 5% of their Foundation English II course marks in the SALC. The study also aimed at exploring these students' attitudes toward their participation in the SALC and their perceptions of how effective this participationn was. Data collection was conducted by means of a self-administered questionnaire consisting of both closed-ended and open-ended items. The reearch findings, derived from both quantitative data and qualitative data, zoomed in on these language learners' actual use of as well as their attitudes toward the SALC. Based on these findings, implications for teachers and those who are involved in managing SALCs such as administrators and SALC staff members are proposed in the hope that if the way SALCs are arranged is based on informed decisions about learners' needs and wants, as well as likes and dislikes, learner autonomy can be better enhanced and mastery of the target language can be better achieved.

El presente artículo compara los sistemas de control fiscal de Chile y Colombia, examinando sus marcos regulatorios y procedimientos para identificar los factores que explican la mayor eficacia del sistema chileno en la prevención y detección de la corrupción. Como resultado, se evidencia que, en Chile, las reformas institucionales han fortalecido la independencia y capacidad operativa de la Contraloría General de la República, que actúa con un alto grado de autonomía. En contraste, Colombia enfrenta desafíos relacionados con la falta de independencia de sus organismos de control fiscal, lo que limita su eficacia en la lucha contra la corrupción. Asimismo, Chile ha evolucionado significativamente en la adopción de tecnologías avanzadas, como el Sistema de Información de la Administración Financiera del Estado (SIGFE), que ha mejorado la transparencia y reducido las oportunidades de corrupción. En cambio, Colombia muestra un progreso más lento en la implementación de estas herramientas tecnológicas, lo que repercute negativamente en la eficiencia de su sistema de control fiscal. Otro aspecto clave es la participación ciudadana, que en Chile se ha promovido mediante el desarrollo participativo de la Estrategia Nacional de Integridad Pública. Este enfoque ha involucrado a diversos sectores de la sociedad, incrementando la efectividad y legitimidad de las políticas anticorrupción. En Colombia, los esfuerzos por fomentar la participación ciudadana han sido menos consistentes y de alcance limitado, lo que disminuye la efectividad de sus políticas, concluye que la eficiencia del sistema chileno es el resultado de una combinación de factores, como una tradición de probidad pública, instituciones de control autónomas y fuertes, el uso efectivo de tecnologías avanzadas y un enfoque participativo en la formulación de políticas.

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to improve safety by gradually reducing human decisions while driving. However, there are still questions on their effectiveness as we transition from almost 0% CAVs to 100% CAVs with different levels of vehicle autonomy. This research focuses on synthesizing literature and identifying risk factors influencing fatal crashes involving level 1 and level 2 CAVs in the United States. Fatal crashes involving level 0 vehicles—ones that are not connected and automated—were compared to minimize unobserved heterogeneity and randomness associated with the influencing risk factors. The research team used the fatal crash data for the years 2016 to 2019 for the analysis. A partial proportionality odds model is developed using crash, road, and vehicle characteristics as the independent variables and the fatal crash involving a vehicle with a specific level of automation as the dependent variable. The results of this research indicate that level 1 and level 2 CAVs are less likely to be involved in a fatal crash at four-way intersections, on two-way routes with wide medians, at nighttime, and in poor lighting conditions when compared to level 0 vehicles. However, they are more likely than level 0 vehicles to be involved in a fatal crash with pedestrians and bicyclists. Comparative analysis between vehicles with smart features and other vehicles indicated that pedestrian automatic emergency braking (PAEB) and lane-keeping assistance (LKA) improve the safety by reducing possible collision with a pedestrian and roadside departure, respectively. Contrarily, vehicles with other smart features are still highly likely to be involved in fatal crashes. This research adds to the growing body of literature that will identify potential areas for improvement in the safety of vehicular technologies and road geometry.

Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3

Contraception plays a key role in people’s realization of their sexual and reproductive health and well-being. The factors that shape contraceptive behaviors are complex and dynamic, and there is growing recognition among reproductive health service providers and advocates that contraceptive service delivery must prioritize patients’ values and preferences to help them exercise their reproductive autonomy.1 Similarly, research and public health surveillance systems that measure not only contraceptive use and method selection but also contraceptive preferences are best suited to evaluate service quality and track progress toward meeting the needs of reproductive-aged people. Building on findings from two previous Guttmacher Institute reports describing Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data on contraceptive use in 20172 and 2019,3 this report uses data from the 2022 BRFSS to provide an expanded set of state-level estimates of contraceptive use and preferences. In 2022, scientists at Guttmacher collaborated with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to modify existing questions and include additional questions in the BRFSS family planning module. The resulting data set allows analysis not only of people’s primary contraceptive method use but also of multiple method use, overall contraceptive preferences and method-specific contraceptive preferences. Data collection for the 2022 BRFSS occurred during a pivotal time for reproductive health and rights due to the US Supreme Court’s June 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned the federal right to abortion. A wave of restrictive state laws and policies have followed, and as legislation concerning sexual and reproductive health care becomes increasingly politicized, state-level policies are key determinants of the quality and accessibility of contraceptive care.4 In this environment, state-level data, especially on person-centered measures of contraceptive preferences, are of paramount importance in understanding how shifts in reproductive health policy and service delivery are felt in the population. This report finds that contraceptive use is high across all reporting jurisdictions, but there is considerable variation in whether people are realizing preferences for which contraceptives they use or whether to use at all. People who report having used a method that requires some interaction with a provider, for example, are more likely than people using exclusively provider-independent or over-the-counter methods to report their current method as their preferred method of contraception. Throughout this report, we will explore how patterns of contraceptive use and preferences vary by type of method or combination of methods and jurisdiction. Given the elevated barriers to contraception that young people have historically experienced,5,6 we also highlight differences between two age-groups (18–24 and 25–49) where possible.*

Introducción En 2023 el Banco de la República celebra 100 años de su fundación. Este es un aniversario de gran significado, el cual ofrece la oportunidad de resaltar el aporte que el Banco ha hecho al desarrollo del país. Su trayectoria como garante de la estabilidad monetaria lo ha consolidado como la institución estatal independiente que genera mayor confianza entre los colombianos por su transparencia, capacidad de gestión y el cumplimiento efectivo de las funciones de banca central y culturales encomendadas en la Constitución y la Ley. En una fecha tan importante como esta, la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República (JDBR) hace un reconocimiento a las generaciones de directivos y funcionarios que con su compromiso y dedicación contribuyeron a engrandecer esta institución1. El mandato del Banco de la República se consolidó en la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente de 1991, para cuya integración los ciudadanos tuvieron la oportunidad de elegir a las setenta personas que tendrían como tarea redactar una nueva constitución. Los dirigentes de los tres movimientos políticos más votados fueron elegidos presidentes de la Asamblea, y esta presidencia tripartita reflejó la pluralidad y la necesidad de consenso entre las diferentes fuerzas políticas para sacar adelante la reforma. Entre los asuntos considerados, la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente le otorgó especial importancia a la estabilidad monetaria. Por esta razón decidió incluir el tema de banca central y dotar al Banco de la República de la autonomía necesaria para utilizar los instrumentos a su cargo sin injerencia de otras autoridades. El constituyente entendió que velar por la estabilidad de precios es un deber del Estado y que la entidad responsable de este cometido debe estar consagrada en la Constitución y contar con la capacidad técnica y autonomía institucional necesaria para adoptar las decisiones que considere pertinentes para alcanzar este objetivo fundamental, en coordinación con la política económica general. En particular, el artículo 373 estableció que “el Estado, por intermedio del Banco de la República, velará por el mantenimiento de la capacidad adquisitiva de la moneda”, disposición que coincidía con el esquema de banca central adoptado por países exitosos en el control de la inflación. En 1999, mediante sentencia 481, la Corte Constitucional indicó que “el deber de mantener la capacidad adquisitiva de la moneda no solo se predica de la autoridad monetaria, crediticia y cambiaria, esto es de la Junta del Banco de la República, sino también de quienes tienen responsabilidades en la formulación y ejecución de la política económica general del país” y que “la finalidad constitucional básica del Banco de la República es la protección de la moneda sana, pero esa autoridad debe tomar en consideración en sus decisiones los otros objetivos económicos de la intervención del Estado, como el pleno empleo, pues sus funciones deben coordinarse con la política económica general.” La reforma al Banco de la República concertada en la Constituyente de 1991 y en la Ley 31 de 1992 se puede resumir en los siguientes aspectos: i) asignó al Banco un mandato específico: mantener la capacidad adquisitiva de la moneda, en coordinación con la política económica general; ii) designó a la JDBR como autoridad monetaria, cambiaria y crediticia; iii) otorgó al Banco y a su Junta Directiva un importante grado de independencia frente al Gobierno; iv) prohibió al Banco otorgar crédito al sector privado distinto del financiero; v) estableció que para otorgar crédito al Gobierno se requería del voto unánime de su Junta Directiva, a menos que se trate de operaciones de mercado abierto; vi) determinó que el legislador, en ningún caso, podrá ordenar cupos de crédito a favor del Estado o de los particulares; vii) designó al Congreso, en representación de la sociedad, como principal destinatario del ejercicio de rendición de informes del Banco; y viii) delegó en el presidente de la República la función de inspección, vigilancia y control sobre el Banco de la República. Los miembros de la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente entendieron claramente que los beneficios de una inflación baja y estable se extienden a toda la sociedad y contribuyen al buen funcionamiento del sistema económico. Entre los más importantes cabe mencionar que una inflación baja promueve el uso eficiente de los recursos productivos, al permitir que los precios relativos guíen de mejor forma la asignación de recursos, lo cual promueve el crecimiento económico y aumenta el bienestar de la población. Igualmente, una inflación baja reduce la incertidumbre sobre la rentabilidad esperada de la inversión y sobre el precio futuro de los activos, lo que aumenta la confianza de los agentes económicos, facilita la financiación de largo plazo y estimula la inversión. Una inflación baja evita redistribuciones arbitrarias del ingreso y la riqueza, debido a que los estratos de ingresos bajos de la población no pueden protegerse de la inflación mediante la diversificación de sus activos, y concentran una elevada proporción de su ingreso en la compra de alimentos y otros bienes básicos, ítems que generalmente son los más afectados por los choques inflacionarios2. Por otra parte, una baja inflación facilita las negociaciones salariales, lo cual crea un buen clima laboral y reduce la volatilidad del nivel de empleo. Finalmente, una inflación baja contribuye a que el sistema de impuestos sea más transparente y equitativo, al evitar las distorsiones que la inflación introduce sobre el valor de los activos y de los ingresos que componen la base tributaria. Desde el punto de vista de la autoridad monetaria, uno de los beneficios más relevantes de una inflación baja es la credibilidad que los agentes económicos adquieren en la meta de inflación, lo que la convierte en un ancla nominal efectiva sobre el nivel de precios. Al recibir su mandato, y en uso de su autonomía, el Banco de la República empezó a anunciar metas puntuales de inflación anual a partir de 1992. Si bien en esta primera etapa las metas de inflación propuestas no se lograron cumplir de forma precisa, sí se consiguió imprimirle a la inflación una tendencia descendente, que la llevó desde un nivel del 32,4% en 1990 al 16,7% en 1998. Para aquella época la tasa de cambio se mantenía dentro de una banda, lo cual limitaba la efectividad de la política monetaria, que buscaba cumplir simultáneamente una meta de inflación y un objetivo de tasa de cambio. La crisis asiática se contagió a las economías emergentes y afectó de manera importante a la economía colombiana. La tasa de cambio presentó una fuerte presión a la depreciación al cerrarse el acceso al financiamiento externo en condiciones de un elevado desequilibrio externo. Lo anterior, junto con la falta de flexibilidad cambiaria, impidió hacer una política monetaria contracíclica, lo que condujo a una contracción del PIB del 4,2% en dicho año. En este contexto de desaceleración económica, la inflación anual se redujo al 9,2% a finales de 1999, situándose por debajo de la meta del 15% que se había fijado para ese año. Este episodio reveló plenamente lo costoso que podría ser, en términos de actividad económica, el tener simultáneamente metas para la inflación y para la tasa de cambio. Hacia finales de 1999 el Banco de la República anunció la adopción de un nuevo régimen de política monetaria que denominó Esquema de Inflación Objetivo. Este régimen, conocido internacionalmente como ‘Inflation Targeting,’ venía ganando creciente aceptación en países desarrollados, al haber sido adoptado a partir de 1991 por Nueva Zelanda, Canadá e Inglaterra, entre otros, logrando importantes avances en el manejo de la inflación, sin incurrir en costos en términos de actividad económica. En América Latina, Brasil y Chile también lo acogieron en 1999. En el caso colombiano, el último requisito pendiente por cumplir para adoptar dicho esquema de política era la flexibilidad de la tasa de cambio, la cual se materializó hacia septiembre de 1999, cuando la JDBR decidió abandonar las bandas cambiarias para permitir que la tasa de cambio se determinara libremente en el mercado. De forma coherente con el mandato constitucional, el objetivo fundamental de este nuevo esquema de política consistía en “el cumplimiento de una meta de inflación que contribuya a mantener un crecimiento del producto alrededor de su capacidad potencial”3. Dicha capacidad potencial se entendía como aquel crecimiento del PIB que la economía puede obtener si utiliza plenamente sus recursos productivos. Para cumplir este objetivo la política monetaria debe cumplir necesariamente un papel contracíclico en la economía. Ello porque cuando la actividad económica está por debajo de su potencial y existen recursos ociosos, la autoridad monetaria puede reducir la tasa de interés ante la ausencia de presiones inflacionarias para estimular por esa vía la economía y, de manera inversa, cuando el producto supera su capacidad potencial. Este principio de política, que está inmerso en los modelos para guiar la postura de política monetaria, hace que, en el mediano plazo, sean totalmente compatibles los objetivos del cumplimiento de la meta de inflación y de un nivel de actividad económica compatible con su capacidad productiva. Para alcanzar este propósito, en el esquema de inflación objetivo se utiliza la tasa de interés del mercado monetario (a la cual el banco central suministra liquidez primaria a los bancos comerciales), como el instrumento primordial de política. Con ello se sustituyó la cantidad de dinero como meta intermedia de política monetaria, que el Banco de la República, al igual que varios otros bancos centrales, utilizaron por mucho tiempo. En el caso colombiano, el objetivo del nuevo esquema de política monetaria implicaba, en términos prácticos, que la recuperación de la economía, luego de la contracción ocurrida en 1999, debía lograrse al tiempo que se cumplían las metas decrecientes de inflación establecidas por la JDBR. De manera notable este propósito se cumplió. En la primera mitad de la década del 2000 la actividad económica logró una recuperación importante, hasta alcanzar un crecimiento del 6,8% en 2006. Entretanto, la inflación fue descendiendo gradualmente, en línea con las metas de inflación. Fue así como la tasa de inflación se redujo desde el 9,2% en 1999 al 4,5% en 2006, cumpliendo con la meta de inflación establecida para ese año, mientras que el PIB alcanzó su nivel potencial. Después de lograrse este equilibrio en 2006, la inflación repuntó al 5,7% en 2007, por encima de la meta del 4% fijada para ese año, debido a que el crecimiento del PIB del 7,5% superó su capacidad potencial4. Luego de comprobarse la eficacia del esquema de inflación objetivo en sus primeros años de operación, este régimen de política continuó consolidándose a medida que la JDBR y el equipo técnico ganaron experiencia en su manejo y se incorporaron modelos económicos de última tecnología para diagnosticar el estado presente y futuro de la economía, y evaluar la persistencia de los desvíos de la inflación y sus expectativas con respecto a la meta de inflación. A partir de 2010 la JDBR estableció la meta de inflación anual de largo plazo del 3%, que continúa vigente en la actualidad. La menor inflación ha contribuido a crear un entorno macroeconómico más estable, que ha favorecido el crecimiento económico sostenido, la estabilidad financiera, el desarrollo del mercado de capitales y el funcionamiento de los sistemas de pagos. Gracias a ello se lograron reducciones en la prima por riesgo inflacionario y menores tasas de interés de los TES y de crédito. A su vez, la duración de la deuda interna pública aumentó de forma importante pasando de 2,27 años en diciembre de 2002 a 5,86 años en diciembre de 2022 y la profundización financiera, medida como el nivel de la cartera como porcentaje del PIB, pasó de cerca del 20% a mediados de la década de los noventa a valores superiores al 45% en años recientes, en un contexto saludable de los establecimientos de crédito. Los logros tangibles alcanzados por el Banco de la República en el manejo de la inflación al haber contado con la autonomía que le otorgó la Constitución para cumplir con el mandato de preservar el poder adquisitivo de la moneda, junto con los importantes beneficios que se derivaron del proceso de llevar la inflación a su meta de largo plazo, hacen que el reto que actualmente enfrenta la JDBR de retornar la inflación a la meta del 3% sea aún más exigente y apremiante. Como es bien conocido, a partir de 2021, y especialmente en 2022, la inflación en Colombia volvió a convertirse en un serio problema económico, con elevados costos de bienestar. El fenómeno inflacionario no ha sido exclusivo de Colombia y es así como muchos otros países desarrollados y emergentes han visto alejarse sus tasas de inflación de las metas propuestas por sus bancos centrales5. Las razones de este fenómeno se han analizado en los recientes Informes al Congreso, y en esta nueva entrega se profundiza al respecto con información actualizada. La sólida base institucional y técnica que soporta el esquema de inflación objetivo bajo el cual opera la estrategia de política monetaria le da a la JDBR los elementos necesarios para enfrentar con confianza este difícil reto. Al respecto, en su comunicado del 25 de noviembre la JDBR reiteró su compromiso con la meta de inflación del 3,0%, la cual prevé alcanzar hacia finales de 20246. La política monetaria continuará enfocada en cumplir este objetivo, al tiempo que velará por la sostenibilidad de la actividad económica, tal y como lo ordena la Constitución. Las encuestas a analistas llevadas a cabo en marzo mostraron un incremento importante (del 32,3% en enero al 48,5% en marzo) en el porcentaje de respuestas que sitúan las expectativas de inflación a dos años o más en un rango entre el 3% y 4%. Este es un indicativo claro de recuperación de credibilidad en la meta de inflación a mediano plazo, lo cual guarda coherencia con el anuncio de la JDBR de noviembre pasado. La moderación de la tendencia alcista de la inflación que se observó en enero, y especialmente en febrero, contribuirá a reforzar esta revisión de expectativas de inflación, y ayudará a cumplir los objetivos propuestos. Luego de registrarse una inflación del 5,6% a finales de 2021, la inflación mantuvo una tendencia alcista a lo largo de 2022 debido a las presiones inflacionarias tanto de origen externo, asociadas con las secuelas de la pandemia y las consecuencias del conflicto bélico en Ucrania, como de origen interno, resultantes de: el fortalecimiento de la demanda local; los procesos de indexación de precios estimulados por el aumento de las expectativas de inflación; las afectaciones a la producción de alimentos provocadas por el paro de mediados de 2021, y el traspaso de la depreciación a los precios. Los aumentos del salario mínimo del 10% en 2021 y del 16% en 2022, que en ambos casos superaron la inflación observada y el incremento de la productividad, acentuaron los procesos de indexación al haber establecido un elevado referente de ajuste nominal. De esta forma, la inflación total aumentó al 13,1% a finales 2022. La variación anual de alimentos, que subió del 17,2% al 27,8% entre esos dos años, fue el factor que más influyó en la aceleración del Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC). Otro rubro que contribuyó de manera importante a las alzas de precios fue el de regulados, cuya variación anual aumentó del 7,1% en diciembre de 2021 al 11,8% a finales de 2022. Por su parte, la medida de inflación básica sin alimentos ni regulados subió del 2,5% al 9,5% entre finales de 2021 y finales de 2022. El aumento sustancial de la inflación básica muestra que la presión inflacionaria se extendió a la mayoría de los rubros de la canasta familiar, lo cual es característico de procesos inflacionarios con una indexación de precios generalizada, como ocurre en Colombia. La política monetaria empezó a reaccionar tempranamente a estas presiones inflacionarias. Fue así como a partir de su sesión de septiembre de 2021 la JDBR inició un cambio progresivo de la postura de la política monetaria a partir del mínimo histórico del 1,75% de la tasa de interés de política al cual se había llegado para estimular la recuperación de la economía. Este proceso de ajuste prosiguió sin interrupción a lo largo de 2022 y hasta inicios de 2023, cuando la tasa de política monetaria alcanzó el 12,75% en enero pasado, con lo cual acumuló un incremento de 11 puntos porcentuales (pp). El público y los mercados se han mostrado sorprendidos de que la inflación continuara aumentando, a pesar de los significativos incrementos de la tasa de interés. Pero como lo ha explicado la JDBR en sus diversas comunicaciones, la política monetaria actúa con rezago. Así como en 2022 la actividad económica se recuperó hasta alcanzar un nivel superior al de prepandemia, impulsada, entre otros factores, por el estímulo monetario otorgado durante el período de pandemia y de los meses subsiguientes, así también los efectos de la actual política monetaria restrictiva se irán dando paulatinamente, lo que permite esperar que hacia finales de 2024 la tasa de inflación converja hacia el 3%, como es el propósito de la JDBR. Los resultados de la inflación en enero y febrero de este año mostraron incrementos marginales decrecientes (13 pb y 3 pb respectivamente), en comparación con la variación observada en diciembre (59 pb). Esto sugiere que se aproxima un punto de inflexión en la tendencia de la inflación. En otros países de América Latina, como Chile, Brasil, Perú y México, la inflación llegó a su techo y ha empezado a descender lentamente, aunque con algunos altibajos. Es previsible que en Colombia ocurra un proceso similar durante los próximos meses. El descenso previsto de la inflación en 2023 obedecerá, entre otros factores, a las menores presiones de costos externos por cuenta de la progresiva normalización de las cadenas de suministro, a la superación de los choques de oferta por razones de clima y por los bloqueos viales de años anteriores, lo que se reflejará en menores ajustes en los precios de los alimentos, como ya se observó en los primeros dos meses del año y, por supuesto, al efecto rezagado de la política monetaria. El proceso de convergencia de la inflación a la meta será gradual y se extenderá más allá de 2023. Dicho proceso se facilitará si se revierten las presiones a la devaluación, para lo cual resulta esencial que se continúe consolidando la sostenibilidad fiscal y se eviten mensajes en diferentes frentes de la política pública que generan incertidumbre y desconfianza. _______________________________________ 1 Este Informe al Congreso contiene el recuadro 1 que resume la trayectoria del Banco de la República en estos 100 años. Adicionalmente, con auspicio del Banco, varios libros que profundizan diversos aspectos de la historia de esta institución fueron publicados en años recientes. Véase, por ejemplo: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República : 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 Es por ello que una menor inflación se ha reflejado en la reducción de la desigualdad del ingreso medida a través del coeficiente de Gini al pasar de 58,7 en 1998 a 51,3 en el año previo a la pandemia. 3 Véase Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borrador de Economía, núm. 202, marzo, disponible en: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 Véase López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando y Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “La estrategia de inflación objetivo en Colombia. Una visión histórica”, Borrador de Economía, núm. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 Según el FMI, la variación porcentual de los precios al consumidor entre 2021 y 2022 pasó del 3,1 % al 7,3 % para las economías avanzadas, y del 5,9 % al 9,9 % para las economías de mercados emergentes y en vías de desarrollo. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3