Relevant bibliographies by topics / Scenario uncertainty

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Scenario uncertainty'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 1 June 2024
Last updated: 31 July 2025

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Journal articles on the topic "Scenario uncertainty"

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Jansen van Vuuren, David. "Valuing specialised property: cost vs profits method uncertainty." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 6 (2016): 655–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-06-2016-0048.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the value outcomes of the cost approach to the DCF profits method when valuing specialised property under different scenarios as a test for choice of method or model uncertainty; and to quantify valuation uncertainty under each scenario and to argue for an increasing adoption of the profits method of valuation. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative case study approach was used to analyse four physical valuations performed in practice under four specific scenarios, namely, a business-as-usual scenario, an underperforming business scenario, an
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Yip, Stan, Christopher A. T. Ferro, David B. Stephenson, and Ed Hawkins. "A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions." Journal of Climate 24, no. 17 (2011): 4634–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4085.1.

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A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multimodel climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model–scenario interaction—the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is
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Cambou, Mathieu, and Damir Filipović. "MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCENARIO AGGREGATION." Mathematical Finance 27, no. 2 (2015): 534–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12097.

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Carneiro, Joana, Dália Loureiro, Marta Cabral, and Dídia Covas. "Integrating Uncertainty in Performance Assessment of Water Distribution Networks by Scenario Building." Water 16, no. 7 (2024): 977. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w16070977.

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This paper presents and demonstrates a novel scenario-building methodology that integrates contextual and future time uncertainty into the performance assessment of water distribution networks (WDNs). A three-step approach is proposed: (i) System context analysis, identifying the main key factors that impact the WDN performance; (ii) Scenario definition, identifying the implicated WDN variables, describing its possible evolution, and conjugating them to further establish the reference scenario and the two most relevant and opposite ones; and (iii) Scenario modelling, simulating the WDN behavio
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Smorkalova, Tatyana L., Lyudmila V. Tarasova, and Olga S. Solodukhina. "GENDER-SPECIFIC LIFE SCENARIOS IN INDIVIDUALS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF TOLERANCE TO UNCERTAINTY." Russian Journal of Education and Psychology 14, no. 5 (2023): 109–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2658-4034-2023-14-5-109-125.

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Purpose. Currently, the scenario line of research in personality psychology seems to be particularly promising, since this line of research allows us to identify the specific features of the transformation of the conscious construction of human life paths under changing conditions of uncertainty. The aim of the study is to determine the gender specificity of life scenarios in individuals with different levels of tolerance to uncertainty.
 Materials and Methods. The sampling consisted of 200 people with different levels of tolerance towards uncertainty. The methods of the study included th
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Karpenko, Oksana O., Olha O. Kravchenko, Olena M. Palyvoda, and Svitlana M. Semenova. "EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INNOVATION IMPLEMENTATION AT TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY." Academy Review 2, no. 63 (2025): 75–88. https://doi.org/10.32342/3041-2137-2025-2-63-5.

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In the conditions of economic uncertainty associated with war, the task of developing and applying new approaches to assessing the economic efficiency and feasibility of introducing innovations at transport enterprises has become more urgent. In the presented study, a mental model for the formation of the effects of innovations was developed based on scenarios that describe existing relationships and trends, with the aim of incorporating them into the planning of innovative activities at a transport enterprise using PJSC Ukrzaliznytsia as an example. The authors have demonstrated that, under c
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Marzeion, B., A. H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer. "Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers." Cryosphere Discussions 6, no. 4 (2012): 3177–241. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-6-3177-2012.

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Abstract. We present a model of the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the world's individual glaciers. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross validation scheme using 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. Between 1902 and 2009, the world's glaciers are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). During the 21st century, they
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Mantel, S. K., D. A. Hughes, and A. S. Slaughter. "Water resources management in the context of future climate and development changes: a South African case study." Journal of Water and Climate Change 6, no. 4 (2015): 772–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.098.

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Modelling uncertainty under future climate change and socio-economic development is essential for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This is the first study in South Africa incorporating uncertainty within climate and development scenario modelling for understanding the implications on water availability through comparison of the resulting uncertainty. A Water Evaluation and Planning model application was developed for the Amatole system (South Africa), which consists of three catchments with inter-basin transfers. Outputs for three sets of scenarios are presented
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de Sousa, J. Ricardo Tavares, and Aya Diab. "UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR STATION BLACKOUT SCENARIO." Journal of Computational Fluids Engineering 24, no. 4 (2019): 60–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.6112/kscfe.2019.24.4.060.

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Tapinos, Efstathios. "Perceived Environmental Uncertainty in scenario planning." Futures 44, no. 4 (2012): 338–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.11.002.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Scenario uncertainty"

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Mott, Lacroix Kelly, Ashley Hullinger, Mark Apel, William Brandau, and Sharon B. Megdal. "Using Scenario Planning to Prepare for Uncertainty in Rural Watersheds." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/593579.

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10 pp.<br>Planning for an uncertain future presents many challenges. Thinking systematically and creatively about what is in store through a process called scenario planning can help illuminate options for action and improve decision-making. This guide focuses on a process for developing scenarios to help communities and watershed groups explore what might happen in the years to come, make more informed decisions today, and build a watershed management process. The systematic approach to scenario planning described here is based on the lessons learned through a yearlong scenario planning proce
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Cooksey, Kenneth Daniel. "A portfolio approach to design in the presence of scenario-based uncertainty." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49036.

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Current aircraft conceptual design practices result in the selection of a single (hopefully) Pareto optimal design to be carried forward into preliminary design. This paradigm is based on the assumption that carrying a significant number of concepts forward is too costly and thus early down-selection between competing concepts is necessary. However, this approach requires that key architectural design decisions which drive performance and market success are fixed very early in the design process, sometimes years before the aircraft actually goes to market. In the presence of uncertainty, if t
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Tshimanga, Raphael Muamba. "Hydrological uncertainty analysis and scenario-based streamflow modelling for the Congo River Basin." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006158.

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The effects of climate and environmental change are likely to exacerbate water stress in Africa over the next five decades. It appears obvious, therefore, that large river basins with considerable total renewable water resources will play a prominent role in regional cooperation to alleviate the pressure of water scarcity within Africa. However, managing water resources in the large river basins of Africa involves problems of data paucity, lack of technical resources and the sheer scale of the problem. These river basins are located in regions that are characterized by poverty, low levels of e
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Robinson, Amanda Jane. "Uncertainty in hydrological scenario modelling : an investigation using the Mekong River Basin, SE Asia." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2018. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10046108/.

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This thesis investigates sources of uncertainty in hydrological scenario modelling. It quantifies the extent to which decisions made during the modelling process affect river flow projections under climate change. Sources of uncertainty explored include choice of: General Circulation Model (GCM) for generation of climate projections; hydrological model code; potential evapotranspiration (PET) method; spatial distribution of meteorological inputs within the hydrological model; and baseline precipitation dataset. The Mekong River Basin is employed as a case study site. Initially a MIKE SHE model
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Mahadevan, Srisudha. "Network Selection Algorithm for Satisfying Multiple User Constraints Under Uncertainty in a Heterogeneous Wireless Scenario." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1302550606.

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Calfa, Bruno Abreu. "Data Analytics Methods for Enterprise-wide Optimization Under Uncertainty." Research Showcase @ CMU, 2015. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/575.

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This dissertation primarily proposes data-driven methods to handle uncertainty in problems related to Enterprise-wide Optimization (EWO). Datadriven methods are characterized by the direct use of data (historical and/or forecast) in the construction of models for the uncertain parameters that naturally arise from real-world applications. Such uncertainty models are then incorporated into the optimization model describing the operations of an enterprise. Before addressing uncertainty in EWO problems, Chapter 2 deals with the integration of deterministic planning and scheduling operations of a n
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Hollmann, Dominik. "Supply chain network design under uncertainty and risk." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6407.

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We consider the research problem of quantitative support for decision making in supply chain network design (SCND). We first identify the requirements for a comprehensive SCND as (i) a methodology to select uncertainties, (ii) a stochastic optimisation model, and (iii) an appropriate solution algorithm. We propose a process to select a manageable number of uncertainties to be included in a stochastic program for SCND. We develop a comprehensive two-stage stochastic program for SCND that includes uncertainty in demand, currency exchange rates, labour costs, productivity, supplier costs, and tra
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Persson, Klas. "Quantifying pollutant spreading and the risk of water pollution in hydrological catchments : A solute travel time-based scenario approach." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-63465.

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The research presented in the thesis develops an approach for the estimation and mapping of pollutant spreading in catchments and the associated uncertainty and risk of pollution. The first step in the approach is the quantification and mapping of statistical and geographical distributions of advective solute travel times from pollutant input locations to downstream recipients. In the second step the travel time distributions are used to quantify and map the spreading of specific pollutants and the related risk of water pollution. In both steps, random variability of transport properties and p
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Valente, Christian. "Design and architecture of a stochastic programming modelling system." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6249.

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Decision making under uncertainty is an important yet challenging task; a number of alternative paradigms which address this problem have been proposed. Stochastic Programming (SP) and Robust Optimization (RO) are two such modelling ap-proaches, which we consider; these are natural extensions of Mathematical Pro-gramming modelling. The process that goes from the conceptualization of an SP model to its solution and the use of the optimization results is complex in respect to its deterministic counterpart. Many factors contribute to this complexity: (i) the representation of the random behaviour
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Minton, Mark A. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a fire-induced accident scenario involving binary variables and mechanistic codes." Thesis, Cambridge Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4939.

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CIVINS<br>Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited<br>In response to the transition by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection rulemaking standard, Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been improved, particularly in the areas of advanced fire modeling and computational methods. In order to gain a more meaningful insight into the methods currently in practice, it was decided that a scenario incorporating the various elements of uncertainty specific to a fire PRA would be analyzed. Fire induced Mai
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Books on the topic "Scenario uncertainty"

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1940-, Acar William, ed. Scenario-driven planning: Learning to manage strategic uncertainty. Quorum Books, 1995.

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Lantermann, Ernst-Dieter. Ravenhorst: Gefühle, Werte und Unbestimmtheit im Umgang mit einem ökologischen Scenario. Quintessenz, 1992.

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Jan, Chleboun, and Babuška Ivo, eds. Uncertain input data problems and the worst scenario method. Elsevier, 2004.

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Hammitt, James K. Subjective-probability-based scenarios for uncertain input parameters: Stratospheric ozone depletion. Rand, 1990.

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Hammitt, James K. Subjective probability based scenarios for uncertain input parameters: Stratospheric ozone depletion. Rand, 1990.

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Schwartz, Peter, and Peter Schwartz. The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. Currency Doubleday, 1995.

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Schwartz, Peter. The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. Wiley, 1998.

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Campi, Marco C., and Simone Garatti. Introduction to the Scenario Approach. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2019.

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Samimian-Darash, Limor. Uncertainty by Design: Preparing for the Future with Scenario Technology. Cornell University Press, 2022.

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Martelli, A. Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity. Palgrave Macmillan, 2014.

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Book chapters on the topic "Scenario uncertainty"

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Cuypers, Paul W. M. "Scenario uncertainty." In Mastering Project Uncertainty. Routledge, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003431961-10.

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Garvey, Bruce. "Scenario Derivatives First, Second, and Third Order Scenarios: Generic (Landscape) Variables." In Uncertainty Deconstructed. Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08007-4_8.

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Petrakis, Panagiotis E., and Dimitra P. Konstantakopoulou. "Strategic Scenario Thinking." In Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making. Palgrave Macmillan US, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137460790_10.

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Humzah, Dowshan. "An Exploratory Scenario Case Study: Social Mobility and Inequality." In Uncertainty Deconstructed. Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08007-4_12.

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Buff, Robert. "Scenario-Based Evaluation and Uncertainty." In Springer Finance. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-56323-2_4.

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Morris, Jennifer, and John M. Reilly. "Emissions and Concentration Scenarios." In Uncertainty in Climate Change Research. Springer Nature Switzerland, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-85542-9_16.

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Abstract Consideration of different potential emissions futures is essential for understanding and preparing for future climate change. This chapter briefly reviews the contribution of socioeconomic scenario uncertainty to overall climate change uncertainty. It then addresses the key drivers of emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants and how uncertainty in those drivers affects projections of future emissions. It then reviews the history of emissions and concentration scenarios and various approaches that have been taken, including the traditional scenario development approach of th
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Wulf, Torsten, Philip Meissner, Christian Brands, and Stephan Stubner. "Scenario-based strategic planning: A new approach to coping with uncertainty." In Scenario-based Strategic Planning. Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02875-6_3.

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Calafiore, Giuseppe Carlo. "Scenario Optimization Methods in Portfolio Analysis and Design." In Optimal Financial Decision Making under Uncertainty. Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-41613-7_3.

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Petrakis, Panagiotis E., and Dimitra P. Konstantakopoulou. "Creative Strategic Scenario Thinking under High Uncertainty and Low Nominal Returns." In Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making. Palgrave Macmillan US, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137460790_12.

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Molina, Carlos, Belen Prados-Suárez, and Daniel Sanchez. "Scenario Query Based on Association Rules (SQAR)." In Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40596-4_45.

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Conference papers on the topic "Scenario uncertainty"

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Xie, Chundong, Zixuan Wang, Shuailong He, et al. "A Distribution Network Optimization Operation Method Considering Extreme Uncertainty Scenario." In 2024 7th International Conference on Power and Energy Applications (ICPEA). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/icpea63589.2024.10784727.

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Gaddam, Shivaji, Bharath Bantu, Endla Vivek, Krishna Mohan Reddy Pothireddy, and Sandeep Vuddanti. "Scenario Generation and Reduction Based Uncertainty Mitigation in a Microgrid." In 2024 IEEE 4th International Conference on Sustainable Energy and Future Electric Transportation (SEFET). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/sefet61574.2024.10718010.

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Grosse, Selma, Adam Molin, Dejan Ničković, Alessio Gambi, and Cristinel Mateis. "Taming Uncertainty in Critical Scenario Generation for Testing Automated Driving Systems." In 2025 IEEE Conference on Software Testing, Verification and Validation (ICST). IEEE, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1109/icst62969.2025.10989034.

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Peng, Yixuan, Haoran Chen, Shuolin Zhang, Changgang Li, Wenhui Zhai, and Xiaoyu Tian. "Scenario Generation of Power System Considering Source-Network Uncertainty Under Hurricanes." In 2025 8th International Conference on Energy, Electrical and Power Engineering (CEEPE). IEEE, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1109/ceepe64987.2025.11034120.

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Sun, Junjie, Shubo Hu, Yangyang Ge, Qiang Zhang, Xinwei Li, and Chao Wang. "Day-Ahead Optimal Scheduling of Time-Series Multi-Scenario Considering Source-Load Uncertainty." In 2024 IEEE PES 16th Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/appeec61255.2024.10922480.

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Gu, Mingzhou, and Bingyan Zhao. "Multi-Objective Optimum Scheduling of Microgrids Accounting for Wind and Solar Scenario Uncertainty." In 2024 11th International Forum on Electrical Engineering and Automation (IFEEA). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/ifeea64237.2024.10878730.

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Weng, Geping, Jiaorong Ren, Chuanxun Pei, Zhenlong Zhang, Chen Ye, and Hua Qing. "Data-Driven Operational Scenario Generation for Generation-Demand Uncertainty Characterization in Power Distribution Networks." In 2025 3rd International Conference on Data Science and Information System (ICDSIS). IEEE, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1109/icdsis65355.2025.11070556.

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Dardor, Dareen, Daniel Fl�rez-Orrego, Reginald Germanier, Manuele Margni, and Fran�ois Mar�chal. "On the Economic Uncertainty and Crisis Resiliency of Decarbonization Solutions for the Aluminium Industry." In The 35th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering. PSE Press, 2025. https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.116664.

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The aluminium industry emits approximately 1.1 billion tonnes of CO2-eq annually, contributing about 2% of global industrial emissions. Decarbonization pathways aim to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, but this requires making decisions today for technologies having lifetimes of 20 � 25 years, based on uncertain economic assumptions, particularly given the volatility of energy prices. Traditional price forecasting models often fail to anticipate major disruptions, such as the 2022 energy crisis. This work applies Monte-Carlo Analysis (MCA) to evaluate the financial stability of decarbonizati
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Huo, Chao, Cheng Peng, Zhiguo Hao, Xiuting Rong, Xuetao Dong, and Songhao Yang. "Scenario Generation Method Considering the Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Generations Based on Generative Adversarial Networks." In 2024 3rd International Conference on Energy and Electrical Power Systems (ICEEPS). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iceeps62542.2024.10693230.

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Dani, K. C., V. K. Baskaran, D. K. Gupta, and A. M. Urkude. "Hydrocarbon Risk and Uncertainty: Indian Scenario." In International Petroleum Technology Conference. International Petroleum Technology Conference, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2523/16759-ms.

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Reports on the topic "Scenario uncertainty"

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Hernandez-Abrams, Darixa, Carra Carrillo, and Todd Swannack. Scenario analyses in ecological modeling and ecosystem management. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/44840.

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Ecosystem management and restoration practitioners are challenged with complex problems, diverse project goals, multiple management alternatives, and potential future scenarios that change the systems of interest. Scenario analysis aids in forecasting, evaluating, and communicating outcomes of potential management actions under different plausible conditions, such as land-use change or sea level rise. However, little guidance exists for practitioners on the utility and execution of scenario analysis. Therefore, this technical note highlights the usefulness of scenario analysis as a tool for ad
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Runyon, Amber, Gregor Schuurman, Brecken Robb, Jeremy Littell, Mark Miller, and Joel Reynolds. Climate-resource scenarios to inform climate change adaptation in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve: Summary of 2021 climate change scenario planning. National Park Service, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.36967/2301920.

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This report illustrates use of scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool supporting Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve?s Resource Stewardship Strategy. The primary objective of scenario planning is to help resource managers and scientists make management and planning decisions informed by assessments of critical future uncertainties. This report outlines a process that synthesized future climate projections into three distinct but plausible and relevant climate summaries for the focal area and used them to develop climate-resource scenarios through participatory scenario
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Kucherova, Hanna, Anastasiia Didenko, Olena Kravets, Yuliia Honcharenko, and Aleksandr Uchitel. Scenario forecasting information transparency of subjects' under uncertainty and development of the knowledge economy. [б. в.], 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/4469.

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Topicality of modeling information transparency is determined by the influence it has on the effectiveness of management decisions made by an economic entity in the context of uncertainty and information asymmetry. It has been found that information transparency is a poorly structured category which acts as a qualitative characteristic of information and at certain levels forms an additional spectrum of properties of the information that has been adequately perceived or processed. As a result of structuring knowledge about the factor environment, a fuzzy cognitive model of information transpar
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Meyer, Philip D., Ming Ye, Mark L. Rockhold, Shlomo P. Neuman, and Kirk J. Cantrell. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/921264.

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Malone, Matt. Will Canada’s Bill C-8 Impact the Future of EU-Canada Cross-border Data Flows? Balsillie School of International Affairs, 2025. https://doi.org/10.51644/bap74.

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Canada’s proposed cyber security for critical infrastructure bill, Bill C-8, which reintroduces Bill C-26 from the previous Parliament (with minor tweaks), could lead to a re-evaluation of the European Commission’s adequacy decision concerning Canada’s data protection laws. As such, the bill could push Canada to the brink of a disruption in the framework governing cross-border data flows between the two jurisdictions. Such a scenario would create tremendous uncertainty for actors in the digital economy who routinely process Europeans’ personal data, such as airlines, financial institutions, in
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Alloza, Mario, Jorge Martínez, Juan Rojas, and Iacopo Varotto. Public debt dynamics: a stochastic approach applied to Spain. Banco de España, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.53479/36693.

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This paper presents a methodology for analysing public debt sustainability that incorporates factors that enable uncertainty in the macro-financial environment to be quantified. The aim is to identify risks, not only under specific assumptions, but also considering a complete characterisation of potential developments in the real economy and in financing costs, based on the historical evidence available. To this end, stochastic shocks are included in the equations for a standard debt sustainability analysis (DSA) model, using recent evidence to gauge their scale and recurrence. When applied to
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Lempert, Robert J., Michelle Miro, and Diogo Prosdocimi. A DMDU Guidebook for Transportation Planning Under a Changing Climate. Edited by Benoit Lefevre and Ernesto Monter Flores. Inter-American Development Bank, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003042.

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The effects of climate-related natural hazards pose a significant threat to sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region and in particular its transportation sector. Risk Management provides an appropriate framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of climate change and other climate-related natural hazards on transportation systems and choosing actions to enhance their resilience. However, analysts and policymakers involved in transportation planning, policy, and investment face significant challenges in managing the risks triggered by the effects of climate
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Rosser, Katy, Iulia Gherman, Erica Kintz, Paul Cook, and Anthony WIlson. Assessment of the risk to consumers as a result of disruption to the cold chain during direct supply of Qurbani meat and offal. Food Standards Agency, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.46756/sci.fsa.nuc910.

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Qurbani is a religious practice that takes place during Eid al-Adha. Consumers practicing Qurbani typically wish to collect meat and red offal within a short time after slaughter, which means these products cannot complete normal chilling processes before leaving the slaughterhouse. This could permit greater growth of pathogens and has the potential to increase the risk of consumer illness. The FSA is working with industry and stakeholder groups to ensure that the risk to consumers under these conditions remains at an acceptable level. To help inform these discussions, the FSA commissioned thi
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Mort Webster. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/883668.

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Amacher, Gregory S., Olli-Pekka Kuuselaa, and Kwok Ping Tsang. Intensity-Based Permit Quotas and the Business Cycle: Does Flexibility Pay Off? Inter-American Development Bank, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011514.

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Tradable permit markets for carbon dioxide (C02) emissions respond to short-run fluctuations in economic activity. To provide stability, both price and quantity interventions have been proposed. This paper focuses on the relative performance of fixed versus intensity allowances in the presence of both productivity and energy price uncertainty. Both instruments achieve the same steady-state emissions reduction target of 20 percent, which is similar to the current policy proposals, and the regulator then chooses the allowance policy that has the lowest expected abatement cost. A standard real bu
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