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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Scenario uncertainty'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 1 June 2024

Last updated: 31 July 2025

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1

Mott, Lacroix Kelly, Ashley Hullinger, Mark Apel, William Brandau, and Sharon B. Megdal. "Using Scenario Planning to Prepare for Uncertainty in Rural Watersheds." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/593579.

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10 pp.<br>Planning for an uncertain future presents many challenges. Thinking systematically and creatively about what is in store through a process called scenario planning can help illuminate options for action and improve decision-making. This guide focuses on a process for developing scenarios to help communities and watershed groups explore what might happen in the years to come, make more informed decisions today, and build a watershed management process. The systematic approach to scenario planning described here is based on the lessons learned through a yearlong scenario planning proce

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2

Cooksey, Kenneth Daniel. "A portfolio approach to design in the presence of scenario-based uncertainty." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49036.

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Current aircraft conceptual design practices result in the selection of a single (hopefully) Pareto optimal design to be carried forward into preliminary design. This paradigm is based on the assumption that carrying a significant number of concepts forward is too costly and thus early down-selection between competing concepts is necessary. However, this approach requires that key architectural design decisions which drive performance and market success are fixed very early in the design process, sometimes years before the aircraft actually goes to market. In the presence of uncertainty, if t

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Tshimanga, Raphael Muamba. "Hydrological uncertainty analysis and scenario-based streamflow modelling for the Congo River Basin." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006158.

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The effects of climate and environmental change are likely to exacerbate water stress in Africa over the next five decades. It appears obvious, therefore, that large river basins with considerable total renewable water resources will play a prominent role in regional cooperation to alleviate the pressure of water scarcity within Africa. However, managing water resources in the large river basins of Africa involves problems of data paucity, lack of technical resources and the sheer scale of the problem. These river basins are located in regions that are characterized by poverty, low levels of e

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Robinson, Amanda Jane. "Uncertainty in hydrological scenario modelling : an investigation using the Mekong River Basin, SE Asia." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2018. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10046108/.

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This thesis investigates sources of uncertainty in hydrological scenario modelling. It quantifies the extent to which decisions made during the modelling process affect river flow projections under climate change. Sources of uncertainty explored include choice of: General Circulation Model (GCM) for generation of climate projections; hydrological model code; potential evapotranspiration (PET) method; spatial distribution of meteorological inputs within the hydrological model; and baseline precipitation dataset. The Mekong River Basin is employed as a case study site. Initially a MIKE SHE model

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Mahadevan, Srisudha. "Network Selection Algorithm for Satisfying Multiple User Constraints Under Uncertainty in a Heterogeneous Wireless Scenario." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1302550606.

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Calfa, Bruno Abreu. "Data Analytics Methods for Enterprise-wide Optimization Under Uncertainty." Research Showcase @ CMU, 2015. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/575.

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This dissertation primarily proposes data-driven methods to handle uncertainty in problems related to Enterprise-wide Optimization (EWO). Datadriven methods are characterized by the direct use of data (historical and/or forecast) in the construction of models for the uncertain parameters that naturally arise from real-world applications. Such uncertainty models are then incorporated into the optimization model describing the operations of an enterprise. Before addressing uncertainty in EWO problems, Chapter 2 deals with the integration of deterministic planning and scheduling operations of a n

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Hollmann, Dominik. "Supply chain network design under uncertainty and risk." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6407.

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We consider the research problem of quantitative support for decision making in supply chain network design (SCND). We first identify the requirements for a comprehensive SCND as (i) a methodology to select uncertainties, (ii) a stochastic optimisation model, and (iii) an appropriate solution algorithm. We propose a process to select a manageable number of uncertainties to be included in a stochastic program for SCND. We develop a comprehensive two-stage stochastic program for SCND that includes uncertainty in demand, currency exchange rates, labour costs, productivity, supplier costs, and tra

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Persson, Klas. "Quantifying pollutant spreading and the risk of water pollution in hydrological catchments : A solute travel time-based scenario approach." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-63465.

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The research presented in the thesis develops an approach for the estimation and mapping of pollutant spreading in catchments and the associated uncertainty and risk of pollution. The first step in the approach is the quantification and mapping of statistical and geographical distributions of advective solute travel times from pollutant input locations to downstream recipients. In the second step the travel time distributions are used to quantify and map the spreading of specific pollutants and the related risk of water pollution. In both steps, random variability of transport properties and p

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9

Valente, Christian. "Design and architecture of a stochastic programming modelling system." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6249.

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Decision making under uncertainty is an important yet challenging task; a number of alternative paradigms which address this problem have been proposed. Stochastic Programming (SP) and Robust Optimization (RO) are two such modelling ap-proaches, which we consider; these are natural extensions of Mathematical Pro-gramming modelling. The process that goes from the conceptualization of an SP model to its solution and the use of the optimization results is complex in respect to its deterministic counterpart. Many factors contribute to this complexity: (i) the representation of the random behaviour

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Minton, Mark A. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a fire-induced accident scenario involving binary variables and mechanistic codes." Thesis, Cambridge Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4939.

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CIVINS<br>Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited<br>In response to the transition by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection rulemaking standard, Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been improved, particularly in the areas of advanced fire modeling and computational methods. In order to gain a more meaningful insight into the methods currently in practice, it was decided that a scenario incorporating the various elements of uncertainty specific to a fire PRA would be analyzed. Fire induced Mai

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Minton, Mark A. (Mark Aaron). "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a fire-induced accident scenario involving binary variables and mechanistic codes." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76589.

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Thesis (Nucl. E. and S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2010.<br>"September 2010." Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 72-74).<br>In response to the transition by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to a risk-informed, performance-based fire protection rulemaking standard, Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods have been improved, particularly in the areas of advanced fire modeling and computational methods. As the methods for the quantification of fire risk are improve

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Stanford, Joseph S. M. (Joseph Marsh) Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Possible futures for fully automated vehicles : using scenario planning and system dynamics to grapple with uncertainty." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105319.

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Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2015.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 146-148).<br>It is widely expected that fully automated vehicles (also commonly referred to as "driverless" or "self-driving" cars) will significantly change transportation systems in the United States and around the world. By reducing or eliminating many of the costs and disincentives of travel by automobile, these vehicles may have the potential to radically alter many of the inherent dyna

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Apap, Robert M. "Models and Computational Strategies for Multistage Stochastic Programming under Endogenous and Exogenous Uncertainties." Research Showcase @ CMU, 2017. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/1002.

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This dissertation addresses the modeling and solution of mixed-integer linear multistage stochastic programming problems involving both endogenous and exogenous uncertain parameters. We propose a composite scenario tree that captures both types of uncertainty, and we exploit its unique structure to derive new theoretical properties that can drastically reduce the number of non-anticipativity constraints (NACs). Since the reduced model is often still intractable, we discuss two special solution approaches. The first is a sequential scenario decomposition heuristic in which we sequentially solve

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Rizakou, Eleni. "Scenario-robustness methodology : an approach to flexible planning under uncertainty with an application to AIDS-related resource allocation." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1995. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1368/.

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In this thesis the problem of planning under uncertainty is examined. A classification of uncertainty is given with the purpose of identifying those areas where traditional methods for planning under uncertainty fail to prescribe suitable courses of action. Traditional planning methods have increasingly proved inadequate in their handling of the uncertainty inherent in complex and turbulent environments. Methodologies suitable to planning under uncertainty should attempt to preserve future flexibility, by keeping options open for later resolution. This thesis describes the development of Scena

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Sdobnova, Alena, and Jakub Blaszkiewicz. "Analysis of An Uncertain Volatility Model in the framework of static hedging for different scenarios." Thesis, Halmstad University, School of Information Science, Computer and Electrical Engineering (IDE), 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-2199.

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<p>In Black-Scholes model, the parameters -a volatility and an interest rate were assumed as constants. In this thesis we concentrate on behaviour of the volatility as</p><p>a function and we find more realistic models for the volatility, which elimate a risk</p><p>connected with behaviour of the volatility of an underlying asset. That is</p><p>the reason why we will study the Uncertain Volatility Model. In Chapter</p><p>1 we will make some theoretical introduction to the Uncertain Volatility Model</p><p>introduced by Avellaneda, Levy and Paras and study how it behaves in the different scenari

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Alkhairy, Ibrahim H. "Designing and Encoding Scenario-based Expert Elicitation for Large Conditional Probability Tables." Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/390794.

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This thesis focuses on the general problem of asking experts to assess the likelihood of many scenarios, when there is insufficient time to ask about all possible scenarios. The challenge addressed here is one of experimental design: How to choose which scenarios are assessed; How to use that limited data to extrapolate information about the scenarios that remain unasked? In a mathematical sense, this problem can be constructed as a problem of expert elicitation, where experts are asked to quantify conditional probability tables (CPTs). Experts may be relied on, for example in the situation wh

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Beer, Simon. "Managing uncertainty in production system design during early-phase product development : A scenario-based case study within the commercial vehicle industry." Thesis, KTH, Industriell produktion, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273185.

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Background Production systems of automotive companies are exposed to various change drivers in increasingly volatile market environments. In order to manage the different areas of complexity, time, costs and quality it is necessary to continually adapt and reconsider production systems. Besides other company internal and external change drivers, product development projects initiate such adaption measures in production systems design. Characteristic for production system design activities during early-phase product development is the inadequate data and information basis. Existing methodologie

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Sheikh, Hussin Siti Aida. "Employees Provident Fund (EPF) Malaysia : generic models for asset and liability management under uncertainty." Thesis, Brunel University, 2012. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/7505.

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We describe Employees Provident Funds (EPF) Malaysia. We explain about Defined Contribution and Defined Benefit Pension Funds and examine their similarities and differences. We also briefly discuss and compare EPF schemes in four Commonwealth countries. A family of Stochastic Programming Models is developed for the Employees Provident Fund Malaysia. This is a family of ex-ante decision models whose main aim is to manage, that is, balance assets and liabilities. The decision models comprise Expected Value Linear Programming, Two Stage Stochastic Programming with recourse, Chance Constrained Pro

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BORZOOEI, SINA. "Model-based optimization and scenario planning for a large-scale water resource recovery facility." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2708023.

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Several configurations of biological nutrient-removal(BNR) systems have been developed to improve nutrient removal and meet recently established stringent effluent permits for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Since the majority of BNR configurations are modified versions of the conventional activated sludge process (ASP), they are simple to be implemented and cost-effective. Thus, BNR methods have gained great popularity. However, complex, nonlinear and dynamic nature of biological and biochemical processes which takes place in these systems, makes controlling their performance a challengi

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Combier, Robert. "Risk-informed scenario-based technology and manufacturing evaluation of aircraft systems." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49046.

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In the last half century, the aerospace industry has seen a dramatic paradigm shift from a focus on performance-at-any-cost to product economics and value. The steady increase in product requirements, complexity and global competition has driven aircraft manufacturers to seek broad portfolios of advanced technologies. The development costs and cycle times of these technologies vary widely, and the resulting design environment is one where decisions must be made under substantial uncertainty. Modeling and simulation have recently become the standard practice for addressing these issues; detaile

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Ilevbare, Imohiosen Michael. "An investigation into the treatment of uncertainty and risk in roadmapping : a framework and a practical process." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2014. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/245140.

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This thesis investigates roadmapping in the context of its application to strategic early-stage innovation planning. It is concerned with providing an understanding of how uncertainty and risk are manifested in roadmapping in this application, and with developing and testing a roadmapping process that supports appropriate treatment of uncertainty and risk. Roadmapping is an approach to early-stage innovation planning, which is strategic in nature. It is seeing increasing application in practice and receiving growing attention in management literature. There has, however, been a noticeable lack

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Björkman, Elin. "Osäkerhet vid översvämningskartering av vattendrag : En kunskapsöversikt och tillämpning på MIKE 11." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-237133.

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På grund av osäkerheter i indata, parametrar och modellstruktur kan det finnas stora osäkerheter i översvämningskarteringar. Trots detta sker oftast ingen osäkerhetsanalys vid översvämningskarteringar i praktiken vilket gör att beslutsfattare och andra användare kan uppfatta resultaten som mer korrekta än vad de egentligen är. En orsak till att osäkerhetsanalys ännu inte blivit en vedertagen del i översvämningskarteringar kan vara att modellerare på konsultbyråer och myndigheter inte har tillräcklig kunskap om ämnet. Att tillgången på data kan vara begränsad underlättar inte heller vid osäkerh

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Dreborg, Karl Henrik. "Scenarios and structural uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastructure, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3697.

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Langanay, Jean. "Quantification des incertitudes d'une exploitation d'un gisement d'uranium par Récupération In Situ." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021UPSLM035.

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La Lixiviation In-Situ d’uranium, ou In-Situ Recovery (ISR), est basée sur la lixiviation directe des minéraux uranifères au coeur du gisement par une solution minière injectée. Les résultats des écoulements et des réactions chimiques dans le réservoir sont difficiles à prédire en raison des incertitudes géochimiques, pétrophysiques et géologiques. Les codes de simulation de transport réactif utilisés pour modéliser l’ISR sont particulièrement sensibles à la distribution spatiale des propriétés physiques et chimiques dans le dépôt. Ainsi, la modélisation géostatistique est utilisée pour représ

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Grabaskas, David. "Analysis of Transient Overpower Scenarios in Sodium Fast Reactors." The Ohio State University, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1265726176.

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Pucci, Nicole Christine. "Intolerance of Uncertainty, Anxiety and Worry in Response to a Novel Induction of Uncertainty." Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1322568818.

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Krivtchik, Guillaume. "Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios." Thesis, Grenoble, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014GRENI050/document.

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Les études des scénarios électronucléaires modélisent le fonctionnement d’un parcnucléaire sur une période de temps donnée. Elles permettent la comparaison de différentesoptions d’évolution du parc nucléaire et de gestion des matières du cycle, depuis l’extraction duminerai jusqu’au stockage ultime des déchets, en se basant sur des critères tels que les puis-sances installées par filière, les inventaires et les flux, en cycle et aux déchets. Les incertitudessur les données nucléaires et les hypothèses de scénarios (caractéristiques des combustibles, desréacteurs et des usines) se propagent le

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Akgul, Edvin, and Gabriel Wadsten. "Scenario Planning : Preparing for the future during uncertain times." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-446453.

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Background and past studies: The effects of uncertain times include fluctuating markets anddemands rapid and agile means to cope with said fluctuations and occurring changes. Scenarioplanning is considered a great tool for coping with uncertainties and preparing means for futureevents. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to study how businesses implement and use scenarioplanning as a tool to minimize uncertainty in a volatile environment. Research question: How is Scenario planning utilized to minimize uncertainties in a volatileenvironment in large organizations within Sweden? Method: The s

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Le, Guenedal Théo. "Financial Modeling of Climate-related Risks." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022IPPAG009.

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Ce projet de recherche est consacré à l'estimation des risques financiers liés au changement climatique. Au-delà des applications et des résultats quantitatifs, les chapitres de cette thèse ont pour principal objectif d'apporter des méthodologies générales utilisables par les praticiens. Le premier chapitre propose une méthode d'évaluation bottom-up du risque de transition adjointe aux modèles de risque classiques. Cette approche du risque opérationnel par les coûts engendrés par une taxe potentielle limite l'impact aux secteurs directement polluants, ce qui amène au deuxième chapitre, introdu

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Patricksson, Øyvind Selnes. "Semi-Submersible Platform Design to Meet Uncertainty in Future Operating Scenarios." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for marin teknikk, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-18563.

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This master thesis in marine systems design is about how to assess the future uncertainty in a design setting, or as the topic puts it; semi-submersible platform design to meet uncertainty in the future operation scenarios. Central terms that will be discussed are robustness, flexibility, adaptability, and real options, so-called ilities. Also, methods for evaluation of designs in relation to ilities and future uncertainty are presented.The background for this thesis is the ever importance of a good assessment of investment projects in the offshore business in general, and more specific in re

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Girod, Bastien. "Why six baseline scenarios? a research on the reasons for the growing baseline uncertainty of the IPCC scenarios /." Zürich : ETH, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, HES, Institute for Human-Environment Systmes, 2006. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=dipl&nr=277.

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Kuhlmann, Salas Claudio Andrés. "Ellipsoidal forest and wildland fire scar scenarios for strategic forest management planning under uncertainty." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2014. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/131350.

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Magister en Gestión de Operaciones<br>Ingeniero Civil Industrial<br>La importancia que ha tomado la conservación del medioambiente ha ido en aumento, lo que ha afectado directamente en los objetivos y forma de operar de las organizaciones. Es por esto que la interacción entre la operación y el desarrollo del ecosistema debe ser considerada para balancear la sustentabilidad y conservación con los objetivos productivos, siendo las perturbaciones forestales un punto de gran interés. Incendios, plagas, erupciones volcánicas e inundaciones son algunas de las perturbaciones al ecosistema que afectan

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Zhou, Weifeng. "Resilience analysis of nuclear fuel cycle scenarios." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020GRALI055.

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Les systèmes du cycle du combustible nucléaire, composés de réacteurs, de divers combustibles et de différentes installations de cycle, sont complexes et en constante évolution. Grâce à leur capacité à faire des projections de stratégies industrielles et à évaluer les impacts associés sur le système du cycle du combustible nucléaire, les scénarios électronucléaires sont considérés comme un outil puissant d'aide à la décision. Les études de scénarios aident les décideurs à identifier les forces et les faiblesses des différentes stratégies d'évolution d’un parc nucléaire et puis à proposer des t

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Panichprecha, Sorot. "Abstracting and correlating heterogeneous events to detect complex scenarios." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2009. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/26737/1/Sorot_Panichprecha_Thesis.pdf.

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The research presented in this thesis addresses inherent problems in signaturebased intrusion detection systems (IDSs) operating in heterogeneous environments. The research proposes a solution to address the difficulties associated with multistep attack scenario specification and detection for such environments. The research has focused on two distinct problems: the representation of events derived from heterogeneous sources and multi-step attack specification and detection. The first part of the research investigates the application of an event abstraction model to event logs collected from a

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Panichprecha, Sorot. "Abstracting and correlating heterogeneous events to detect complex scenarios." Queensland University of Technology, 2009. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/26737/.

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The research presented in this thesis addresses inherent problems in signaturebased intrusion detection systems (IDSs) operating in heterogeneous environments. The research proposes a solution to address the difficulties associated with multistep attack scenario specification and detection for such environments. The research has focused on two distinct problems: the representation of events derived from heterogeneous sources and multi-step attack specification and detection. The first part of the research investigates the application of an event abstraction model to event logs collected from a

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Cornelio, Cristina. "Preference reasoning and aggregation over combinatorial domains in uncertain and multi-agent scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3427129.

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Preferences, intended as user opinions over items, are conspicuously present in our lives and recently became widely studied in Artificial Intelligence. In many contexts of our life, we do not consider items only as entire entities, but we consider a set of features/attributes that characterize them and that interact to each other. Therefore, we are particularly interested in this kind of scenarios representing conditional preferences over combinatorial and multi attribute domains. The ability of representing preferences in a compact way is essential, especially in the context of multi-attrib

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Salas, Bravo Pablo Andres. "The effects of uncertainty in the technological transitions of the power sector : endogenous emissions scenarios up to 2050." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2017. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/265885.

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By August 2016, 180 countries have signed the Paris Agreement and committed to holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels. Abiding by the agreement will require a substantial reduction of emissions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of this century. In this context, the decarbonisation of the global power sector is of strategic importance, because low-carbon electricity has system-wide benefits that go beyond the electricity sector, enabling significant reductions

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Eisenreich, Katrin Verfasser], and Volker [Akademischer Betreuer] [Markl. "Database Support for Uncertain Data Analysis and Correlation Handling in Scenario Planning / Katrin Eisenreich. Betreuer: Volker Markl." Berlin : Universitätsbibliothek der Technischen Universität Berlin, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1033640387/34.

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Lind, Mårten. "Opportunities and uncertainties in the early stages of development of CO2 capture and storage." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Energiprocesser, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-10985.

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The topic of this thesis is carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS), which is a technology that is currently being promoted by industries, scientists and governments, among others, in order to mitigate climate change despite a continued use of fossil fuels. Because of the complex nature of CCS and the risks it entails, it is controversial. The aim of this thesis is to analyse how the technology may be further developed in a responsible manner. In the first part of the thesis different methods for capturing CO2 from industrial processes as well as power plants are analysed. The aim is to

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Lim, Dongwook. "A systematic approach to design for lifelong aircraft evolution." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/28280.

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Thesis (M. S.)--Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.<br>Committee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Bishop, Carlee; Committee Member: Costello, Mark; Committee Member: Nam, Taewoo; Committee Member: Schrage, Daniel.

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Zurell, Damaris. "Integrating dynamic and statistical modelling approaches in order to improve predictions for scenarios of environmental change." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2011. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2011/5684/.

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Species respond to environmental change by dynamically adjusting their geographical ranges. Robust predictions of these changes are prerequisites to inform dynamic and sustainable conservation strategies. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) relate species’ occurrence records to prevailing environmental factors to describe the environmental niche. They have been widely applied in global change context as they have comparably low data requirements and allow for rapid assessments of potential future species’ distributions. However, due to their static nature, transient responses to env

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Künzner, Florian [Verfasser], Hans-Joachim [Akademischer Betreuer] Bungartz, Hans-Joachim [Gutachter] Bungartz, and Ernst [Gutachter] Rank. "Efficient non-intrusive uncertainty quantification for large-scale simulation scenarios / Florian Künzner ; Gutachter: Hans-Joachim Bungartz, Ernst Rank ; Betreuer: Hans-Joachim Bungartz." München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2021. http://d-nb.info/1227580576/34.

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Sierra, Gonzalez David. "Towards Human-Like Prediction and Decision-Making for Automated Vehicles in Highway Scenarios." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019GREAM012/document.

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Au cours des dernières décennies, les constructeurs automobiles ont constamment introduit des innovations technologiques visant à rendre les véhicules plus sûrs. Le niveau de sophistication de ces systèmes avancés d’aide à la conduite s’est accru parallèlement aux progrès de la technologie des capteurs et de la puissance informatique intégrée. Plus récemment, une grande partie de la recherche effectuée par l'industrie et les institutions s'est concentrée sur l'obtention d'une conduite entièrement automatisée. Les avantages sociétaux potentiels de cette technologie sont nombreux, notamment des

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Гушло, Юлія Юріївна. "Науково-методичні засади стратегічного управління фінансами банку в умовах невизначеності". Дис. д-ра філософії, Сумський державний університет, 2021. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/83803.

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Дисертаційна робота присвячена розв’язанню наукової проблеми, що полягає в удосконаленні теоретичних засад та науково-методичних підходів до стратегічного управління фінансів банку в умовах невизначеності. У роботі здійснено грунтовний аналіз понятійно-категоріального апарату стратегічного управління фінансами банку, у результаті чого запропоновано розглядати фінанси банку як сукупність зовнішніх та внутрішніх економічних відносин з приводу формування, розподілу та використання фінансових ресурсів банку, що, як очікується, приведуть до збільшення економічних вигід у майбутньому. На цій основ

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Fluixá, Sanmartín Javier. "Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/157634.

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[ES] Las grandes presas, así como los diques de protección, son infraestructuras críticas cuyo fallo puede conllevar importantes consecuencias económicas y sociales. Tradicionalmente, la gestión del riesgo y la definición de estrategias de adaptación en la toma de decisiones han asumido la invariabilidad de las condiciones climáticas, incluida la persistencia de patrones históricos de variabilidad natural y la frecuencia de eventos extremos. Sin embargo, se espera que el cambio climático afecte de forma importante a los sistemas hídricos y comprometa la seguridad de las presas, lo que puede ac

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Hudec, Martin. "Klimatická změna a její vliv na vodohospodářské řešení zásobního objemu nádrže." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-372277.

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The diploma thesis describes Climate Change and impacts of Climate Change on the development of the water management analyis of reservoir strorage capacity. The development of climate chang influence on reserviors storage capacity is presented until 2100. It also gives a detailed online downscaling description.

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Ostberg, Sebastian. "Joint impacts of climate and land use change on the terrestrial biosphere." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19319.

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Es gibt zwei Hauptpfade, über die der Mensch die terrestrische Biosphäre verändert: 1) direkt durch Landnutzungswandel (LNW) und 2) indirekt durch Klimawandel (KW), welcher seinerseits zu Ökosystemveränderungen führt. Die vorliegende Dissertation unternimmt den Versuch, die vom Menschen über beide diese Pfade verursachten Veränderungen konsistent und quantitativ zu bestimmen. Die Analyse basiert auf einem integrierten Indikator für makro-skalige Veränderungen der biogeochemikalischen Eigenschaften und der Ökosystemstruktur. Große Verschiebungen bei diesen grundlegenden Bausteinen der Biosphär

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Nosjean, Nicolas. "Management et intégration des risques et incertitudes pour le calcul de volumes de roches et de fluides au sein d’un réservoir, zoom sur quelques techniques clés d’exploration Integrated Post-stack Acoustic Inversion Case Study to Enhance Geological Model Description of Upper Ordovicien Statics : from imaging to interpretation pitfalls and an efficient way to overcome them Improving Upper Ordovician reservoir characterization - an Algerian case study Tracking Fracture Corridors in Tight Gas Reservoirs : An Algerian Case Study Integrated sedimentological case study of glacial Ordovician reservoirs in the Illizi Basin, Algeria A Case Study of a New Time-Depth Conversion Workflow Designed for Optimizing Recovery Proper Systemic Knowledge of Reservoir Volume Uncertainties in Depth Conversion Integration of Fault Location Uncertainty in Time to Depth Conversion Emergence of edge scenarios in uncertainty studies for reservoir trap analysis Enhancing geological model with the use of Spectral Decomposition - A case study of a prolific stratigraphic play in North Viking Graben, Norway Fracture corridor identification through 3D multifocusing to improve well deliverability, an Algerian tight reservoir case study Geological Probability Of Success Assessment for Amplitude-Driven Prospects, A Nile Delta Case Study." Thesis, université Paris-Saclay, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020UPASS085.

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En tant que géoscientifique dans le domaine de l’Exploration pétrolière et gazière depuis une vingtaine d’années, mes fonctions professionnelles m’ont permis d’effectuer différents travaux de recherche sur la thématique de la gestion des risques et des incertitudes. Ces travaux de recherche se situent sur l’ensemble de la chaîne d’analyse Exploration, traitant de problématiques liées à l’acquisition et au traitement sismique, jusqu’au placement optimal de forages d’exploration. Un volet plus poussé de mes travaux s’est orienté sur la gestion des incertitudes géophysiques en Exploration pétroli

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Vestin, Albin, and Gustav Strandberg. "Evaluation of Target Tracking Using Multiple Sensors and Non-Causal Algorithms." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Reglerteknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-160020.

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Today, the main research field for the automotive industry is to find solutions for active safety. In order to perceive the surrounding environment, tracking nearby traffic objects plays an important role. Validation of the tracking performance is often done in staged traffic scenarios, where additional sensors, mounted on the vehicles, are used to obtain their true positions and velocities. The difficulty of evaluating the tracking performance complicates its development. An alternative approach studied in this thesis, is to record sequences and use non-causal algorithms, such as smoothing, i

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Shaw, Michael Patrick. "The use of scenario planning for managing environmental uncertainty." Thesis, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10413/4221.

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There were two main objectives for this research. The first objective was to understand how organisations think strategically and formulate strategy for the current and future environments in which they operate, and the second objective was to determine what the organisations were doing to manage complexity and uncertainty in these environments. This necessitated a review of "traditional" or "rationalist" strategy, the "resource based view" of strategy, and if and how organisations use scenario planning as a means to reduce environmental uncertainty, develop strategic options, improve the qual

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