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Journal articles on the topic 'Scenario uncertainty'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 1 June 2024

Last updated: 31 July 2025

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1

Jansen van Vuuren, David. "Valuing specialised property: cost vs profits method uncertainty." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 6 (2016): 655–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-06-2016-0048.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the value outcomes of the cost approach to the DCF profits method when valuing specialised property under different scenarios as a test for choice of method or model uncertainty; and to quantify valuation uncertainty under each scenario and to argue for an increasing adoption of the profits method of valuation. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative case study approach was used to analyse four physical valuations performed in practice under four specific scenarios, namely, a business-as-usual scenario, an underperforming business scenario, an

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Yip, Stan, Christopher A. T. Ferro, David B. Stephenson, and Ed Hawkins. "A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions." Journal of Climate 24, no. 17 (2011): 4634–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4085.1.

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A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multimodel climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model–scenario interaction—the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is

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3

Cambou, Mathieu, and Damir Filipović. "MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCENARIO AGGREGATION." Mathematical Finance 27, no. 2 (2015): 534–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12097.

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4

Carneiro, Joana, Dália Loureiro, Marta Cabral, and Dídia Covas. "Integrating Uncertainty in Performance Assessment of Water Distribution Networks by Scenario Building." Water 16, no. 7 (2024): 977. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w16070977.

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This paper presents and demonstrates a novel scenario-building methodology that integrates contextual and future time uncertainty into the performance assessment of water distribution networks (WDNs). A three-step approach is proposed: (i) System context analysis, identifying the main key factors that impact the WDN performance; (ii) Scenario definition, identifying the implicated WDN variables, describing its possible evolution, and conjugating them to further establish the reference scenario and the two most relevant and opposite ones; and (iii) Scenario modelling, simulating the WDN behavio

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Smorkalova, Tatyana L., Lyudmila V. Tarasova, and Olga S. Solodukhina. "GENDER-SPECIFIC LIFE SCENARIOS IN INDIVIDUALS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF TOLERANCE TO UNCERTAINTY." Russian Journal of Education and Psychology 14, no. 5 (2023): 109–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2658-4034-2023-14-5-109-125.

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Purpose. Currently, the scenario line of research in personality psychology seems to be particularly promising, since this line of research allows us to identify the specific features of the transformation of the conscious construction of human life paths under changing conditions of uncertainty. The aim of the study is to determine the gender specificity of life scenarios in individuals with different levels of tolerance to uncertainty. Materials and Methods. The sampling consisted of 200 people with different levels of tolerance towards uncertainty. The methods of the study included th

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Karpenko, Oksana O., Olha O. Kravchenko, Olena M. Palyvoda, and Svitlana M. Semenova. "EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF INNOVATION IMPLEMENTATION AT TRANSPORT ENTERPRISES UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY." Academy Review 2, no. 63 (2025): 75–88. https://doi.org/10.32342/3041-2137-2025-2-63-5.

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In the conditions of economic uncertainty associated with war, the task of developing and applying new approaches to assessing the economic efficiency and feasibility of introducing innovations at transport enterprises has become more urgent. In the presented study, a mental model for the formation of the effects of innovations was developed based on scenarios that describe existing relationships and trends, with the aim of incorporating them into the planning of innovative activities at a transport enterprise using PJSC Ukrzaliznytsia as an example. The authors have demonstrated that, under c

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Marzeion, B., A. H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer. "Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers." Cryosphere Discussions 6, no. 4 (2012): 3177–241. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-6-3177-2012.

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Abstract. We present a model of the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the world's individual glaciers. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross validation scheme using 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. Between 1902 and 2009, the world's glaciers are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). During the 21st century, they

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Mantel, S. K., D. A. Hughes, and A. S. Slaughter. "Water resources management in the context of future climate and development changes: a South African case study." Journal of Water and Climate Change 6, no. 4 (2015): 772–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.098.

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Modelling uncertainty under future climate change and socio-economic development is essential for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This is the first study in South Africa incorporating uncertainty within climate and development scenario modelling for understanding the implications on water availability through comparison of the resulting uncertainty. A Water Evaluation and Planning model application was developed for the Amatole system (South Africa), which consists of three catchments with inter-basin transfers. Outputs for three sets of scenarios are presented

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de Sousa, J. Ricardo Tavares, and Aya Diab. "UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR STATION BLACKOUT SCENARIO." Journal of Computational Fluids Engineering 24, no. 4 (2019): 60–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.6112/kscfe.2019.24.4.060.

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Tapinos, Efstathios. "Perceived Environmental Uncertainty in scenario planning." Futures 44, no. 4 (2012): 338–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.11.002.

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Zapata, Marisa A., and Nikhil Kaza. "Radical uncertainty: scenario planning for futures." Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 42, no. 4 (2015): 754–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/b39059.

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12

Josef, Hari Kusnanto, Dhanasari Vidiawati, Elsa Pudji Setiawati, et al. "Webinar Panelist RPCPE Serial Response to Pandemic Covid-19." Review of Primary Care Practice and Education (Kajian Praktik dan Pendidikan Layanan Primer) 5, no. 2 (2022): 45. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/rpcpe.74818.

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Relaxation of PSBB Policy from the Perspective of Community Medicine and Epidemiology in IndonesiaWhen the government will do something meaningful and full of uncertainty, such as relaxation of the PSBB, it needs to be done based on a plan with uncertainty, namely scenario planning. In scenario development, four stages must be carried out, namely identifying the driving forces and critical uncertainties. Some scenarios then create a path for how a plan will travel.

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Pollack-Johnson, Bruce, and Matthew J. Liberatore. "Project Planning under Uncertainty Using Scenario Analysis." Project Management Journal 36, no. 1 (2005): 15–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/875697280503600103.

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An important component of risk management relates to project schedule uncertainty. To address this issue, a scenario (i.e., macro-level approach) for modeling and analyzing projects with significant uncertainty in their network structure and/or durations of some activities is presented. This approach requires that a set of project network scenarios is able to be identified, each with an assessed probability of occurrence. These scenarios might differ according to the results of uncertain events that could occur during the course of the project, uncertain activity durations (whether independent

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Lee, Jae-Kyoung, and Young-Oh Kim. "Selection of representative GCM scenarios preserving uncertainties." Journal of Water and Climate Change 8, no. 4 (2017): 641–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2017.101.

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Abstract Climate change studies usually include the use of many projections, and selecting an essential number of projections is very important, because using all Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios is impossible in practice. Furthermore, the climate change impact assessment is often sensitive to the choice of GCM scenarios. This study suggests that selecting the best-performing scenarios based on a historical period should be avoided in nonstationary cases like climate change, and then proposes a new approach that can preserve the uncertainty, that all scenarios contain. The new approach gro

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Rahmani, Shima, Nima Amjady, and Rakibuzzaman Shah. "Application of Deep Learning Algorithms for Scenario Analysis of Renewable Energy-Integrated Power Systems: A Critical Review." Electronics 14, no. 11 (2025): 2150. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics14112150.

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As the global shift towards renewable energy sources accelerates, the challenge of effectively modeling the inherent uncertainty associated with these energy units becomes increasingly significant. Sustainable energy sources, like solar and wind power sources, are highly variable and difficult to predict, making their integration into power systems complex. Beyond renewable energy, other critical sources of uncertainty also influence power systems’ operations, including fluctuations in electricity prices and variations in load demand. To address these uncertainties, stochastic programming has

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Nikbakht Nasrabadi, Alireza, Abbas Ebadi, Masoud Fallahi-Khoshknab, et al. "Future Scenarios of Nursing Education in Iran." Iran Journal of Nursing 36, no. 142 (2023): 110–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.32598/ijn.36.142.1398.7.

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Background & Aims One of the challenges in accurate and macro planning for the future is the uncertainty involved in estimating the future and rapid changes in various health-related fields. A powerful tool that can predict future competitive environments is the scenario planning tool. The current research aims to provide scenarios for the future of nursing education in Iran. Materials & Methods This exploratory research was conducted in 2022. In the first stage, the drivers and trends of nursing education were identified using meta-synthesis, interviews, and the Delphi method. Then, t

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Kravchenko, Olha. "ORGANIZATION OF FINANCIAL PLANNING IN THE UNCERTAINTY." International Journal of New Economics and Social Sciences 5, no. 1 (2017): 17–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0010.4254.

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The article investigates a financial planning organization at enterprises in uncertainty. The financial planning mistakes, namely the organization of the planning work and proper planning, have been considered. The expediency of the scenario approach of planning in uncertainty has been substantiated. A financial planning technology based on the construction of enterprise scenarios has been proposed.

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Marzeion, B., A. H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer. "Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers." Cryosphere 6, no. 6 (2012): 1295–322. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012.

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Abstract. We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the gl

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He, X., T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, A. S. Høyer, R. R. Møller, and K. H. Jensen. "Analyzing the effects of geological and parameter uncertainty on prediction of groundwater head and travel time." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 8 (2013): 3245–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3245-2013.

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Abstract. Uncertainty of groundwater model predictions has in the past mostly been related to uncertainty in the hydraulic parameters, whereas uncertainty in the geological structure has not been considered to the same extent. Recent developments in theoretical methods for quantifying geological uncertainty have made it possible to consider this factor in groundwater modeling. In this study we have applied the multiple-point geostatistical method (MPS) integrated in the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS) for exploring the impact of geological uncertainty on groundwater flow patt

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He, X., T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, A. S. Høyer, R. Roende Møller, and K. H. Jensen. "Analyzing the effects of geological and parameter uncertainty on prediction of groundwater head and travel time." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 10, no. 3 (2013): 2789–833. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-2789-2013.

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Abstract. Uncertainty of groundwater model predictions has in the past mostly been related to uncertainty in the hydraulic parameters whereas uncertainty in the geological structure has not been considered to the same extent. Recent developments in theoretical methods for quantifying geological uncertainty have made it possible to consider this factor in groundwater modeling. In this study we have applied the multiple-point geostatistical method (MPS) integrated in the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS) for exploring the impact of geological uncertainty on groundwater flow patte

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Beh, Eva H. Y., Holger R. Maier, and Graeme C. Dandy. "Scenario driven optimal sequencing under deep uncertainty." Environmental Modelling & Software 68 (June 2015): 181–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.02.006.

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Drouet, Laurent, and Johannes Emmerling. "Climate policy under socio-economic scenario uncertainty." Environmental Modelling & Software 79 (May 2016): 334–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.010.

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23

Brodziak, Jon, and Kevin Piner. "Model averaging and probable status of North Pacific striped marlin, Tetrapturus audax." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 67, no. 5 (2010): 793–805. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f10-029.

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We show how model averaging can be applied to estimate the probable status of a fishery resource under assessment scenario uncertainty. This approach is applied to North Pacific striped marlin ( Tetrapturus audax ), an apex predator that may be vulnerable to recruitment overfishing in pelagic longline fisheries targeting tunas. In the current striped marlin assessment, two assessment scenarios were used to account for different hypotheses about the steepness of the stock–recruitment dynamics. Estimates of spawning stock and recruitment from these scenarios are used post hoc to fit age-structur

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Mustafa, Syed M. Touhidul, M. Moudud Hasan, Ajoy Kumar Saha, et al. "Multi-model approach to quantify groundwater-level prediction uncertainty using an ensemble of global climate models and multiple abstraction scenarios." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 5 (2019): 2279–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019.

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Abstract. Worldwide, groundwater resources are under a constant threat of overexploitation and pollution due to anthropogenic and climatic pressures. For sustainable management and policy making a reliable prediction of groundwater levels for different future scenarios is necessary. Uncertainties are present in these groundwater-level predictions and originate from greenhouse gas scenarios, climate models, conceptual hydro(geo)logical models (CHMs) and groundwater abstraction scenarios. The aim of this study is to quantify the individual uncertainty contributions using an ensemble of 2 greenho

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Ward, J. D., A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham. "The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 6 (2011): 1879–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1879-2011.

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Abstract. Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the gr

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Ward, J. D., A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham. "The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 8, no. 2 (2011): 2627–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-8-2627-2011.

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Abstract. Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the gr

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PSHENYCHNA, Iryna, Yuliia PRODIUS, and Serhii IZOTOV. "Scenario planning for the development of foreign economic activity of the hotel business enterprise in the conditions of the world pandemic." Economics. Finances. Law, no. 6 (June 18, 2021): 9–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.37634/efp.2021.6.2.

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Introduction. The hotel business is traditionally considered a highly profitable area of foreign economic activity. The most significant risk factors are considered to be economic, political and social instability in countries and regions. In 2020, almost all global tourism and hotel businesses faced a serious challenge in their development – a severe crisis caused by the rapid spread of a pandemic of a new species of coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world. In the context of a global pandemic, to support the activities of the hotel business, it is necessary to clearly define the content and s

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Kolotaev, Y. Y. "Problems and Issues of Humanitarian Policy Representation in the Era of Digital Uncertainty." Governance and Politics 2, no. 4 (2024): 53–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.24833/2782-7062-2023-2-4-53-67.

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The article considers the problems of representation of the humanitarian policy achievements of the Russian Federation in contemporary fragmented information space conditions. Modern digital reality imposes multiple structural limitations on the objectives of the state’s humanitarian activities abroad, expressed in the problems of forming the country’s image through online platforms that actively hinder Russian soft power. The article aims to establish basic scenarios of response to the existing limitations in humanitarian policy representation. The methodological basis is scenario analysis wi

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Chang, Yufang, Xinyi Zhou, Wencong Huang, and Guisheng Zhai. "Optimal scheduling of integrated energy systems considering wind power uncertainty." International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies 19 (2024): 706–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ijlct/ctad149.

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Abstract To reduce the impact of high wind power penetration rate on integrated energy systems, a wind power scenario generation method based on polynomial regression is proposed and an optimization scheduling model is constructed accordingly. First, a probability distribution model for wind power is constructed. Then, scenario generation is performed through Latin hypercube sampling and typical scenarios are obtained using the synchronous back propagation elimination method. Finally, the optimal output of each piece of equipment in the system is obtained with the lowest overall cost as the op

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Bégin, Jean-François. "ECONOMIC SCENARIO GENERATOR AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY: A BAYESIAN APPROACH." ASTIN Bulletin 49, no. 2 (2019): 335–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/asb.2019.6.

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AbstractIn this article, we study parameter uncertainty and its actuarial implications in the context of economic scenario generators. To account for this additional source of uncertainty in a consistent manner, we cast Wilkie’s four-factor framework into a Bayesian model. The posterior distribution of the model parameters is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and is used to perform Bayesian predictions on the future values of the inflation rate, the dividend yield, the dividend index return and the long-term interest rate. According to the US data, parameter uncertainty has a si

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Harris, Gerald. "Four blind alleys of scenario analysis." Strategy & Leadership 42, no. 6 (2014): 37–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sl-09-2014-0068.

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Purpose – Some scenario projects, especially those that take short cuts, have design flaws that undermine the whole purpose of scenario analysis. This article aims to investigate these. Design/methodology/approach – This article is a guide to avoiding four common project flaws. Findings – Selecting one desired future and using scenario analysis to promote it to the exclusion of other possibilities is not a wise approach. Practical implications – Scenarios that ignore the likelihood of serious competition from fledgling startups, market invaders from other industries, or even the possibility of

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Evin, Guillaume, Benoit Hingray, Juliette Blanchet, Nicolas Eckert, Samuel Morin, and Deborah Verfaillie. "Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation." Journal of Climate 32, no. 8 (2019): 2423–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0606.1.

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Abstract The quantification of uncertainty sources in ensembles of climate projections obtained from combinations of different scenarios and climate and impact models is a key issue in climate impact studies. The small size of the ensembles of simulation chains and their incomplete sampling of scenario and climate model combinations makes the analysis difficult. In the popular single-time ANOVA approach for instance, a precise estimate of internal variability requires multiple members for each simulation chain (e.g., each emission scenario–climate model combination), but multiple members are t

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Qian, Xinbo, Qiuhua Tang, and Bo Tao. "A Novel Scenario Reduction Method by 3D-Outputs Clustering for Condition-Based Maintenance Optimization." International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 24, no. 04 (2017): 1750018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218539317500188.

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Condition-based maintenance (CBM) optimization involves considering inherent uncertainties and external uncertainties. Since computational complexity increases exponentially with the number of degradation uncertainties and stages, scenario reduction aims to select small set of typical scenarios which can maintain the probability distributions of outputs of possible scenarios. A novel scenario reduction method, 3D-outputs-clustering scenario reduction (3DOCS), is presented by considering the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the output performance for CBM optimization which have been overloo

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Wei, Wei, Li Ye, Yi Fang, Yingchun Wang, Xi Chen, and Zhenhua Li. "Optimal Allocation of Energy Storage Capacity in Microgrids Considering the Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Generation." Sustainability 15, no. 12 (2023): 9544. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15129544.

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The high dimensionality and uncertainty of renewable energy generation restrict the ability of the microgrid to consume renewable energy. Therefore, it is necessary to fully consider the renewable energy generation of each day and time period in a long dispatching period during the deployment of energy storage in the microgrid. To this end, a typical multi-day scenario set is used as the simulation operation scenario, and an optimal allocation method of microgrid energy storage capacity considering the uncertainty of renewable energy generation is designed. Firstly, the historical scenarios ar

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Oliver, John J., and Emma Parrett. "Managing uncertainty: harnessing the power of scenario planning." Strategic Direction 33, no. 1 (2017): 5–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sd-09-2016-0131.

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Purpose This paper aims to provide an overview of the role that scenario planning can play in managing the uncertainty caused by changing and unpredictable competitive dynamics. Design/methodology/approach This viewpoint reflects both the practical experience of strategic planners, combined with an academic insight into the advantages of using scenario planning as a management tool. Findings Firms can develop corporate level strategy and gain long-term certainty in their strategic approach by using scenario planning to strategize in a way that allows them to prepare for multiple futures, with

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Almendarez-Hernández, Luis César, Germán Ponce-Díaz, Daniel Lluch-Belda, Pablo Del Monte-Luna, and Romeo Saldívar-Lucio. "Risk assessment and uncertainty of the shrimp trawl fishery in the Gulf of California considering environmental variability." Latin American Journal of Aquatic Research 43, no. 4 (2017): 651–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.3856/vol43-issue4-fulltext-4.

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The shrimp fishery off the Mexican Pacific coast is the country's most important fishery from the economic standpoint. However, it faces serious problems, including the fleet’s overcapitalization and age, in addition to the environmental variability that affects the size of catches. Thus, this activity depends on a variety of factors that add uncertainty to the profitability of fishing vessels. This study aims to estimate the probability of success and economic risk of "type vessels" under two different environmental variability scenarios in the Gulf of California. The results from the economi

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Cameron, D., K. Beven, and P. Naden. "Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation under climate change (with uncertainty)." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 4, no. 3 (2000): 393–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-4-393-2000.

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Abstract. This paper explores the potential for assessing the impacts of climate change upon flood frequency for the gauged, upland Wye catchment at Plynlimon, Wales, UK, while taking account of uncertainty in modelling rainfall-runoff processes under current conditions. A continuous simulation methodology which uses a stochastic rainfall model to drive the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL is utilised. Behavioural parameter sets for both the rainfall model and TOPMODEL are identified prior to the climate change runs using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The

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Zheng, Xiao Li, Ji Chun Liu, Jia Yi Li, et al. "The Reserve Capacity Model Based on the Idea of Scenario in Power System." Advanced Materials Research 1008-1009 (August 2014): 173–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1008-1009.173.

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According to the impact of the wind power prediction uncertainty on the power system reserve capacity, the idea of scenario is introduced to the stochastic programming model. The method of scenario is used to simulate the uncertainty model of the wind power generation, load and the conventional units. The scenario-reduction methodology is combined to reduce the large scenario set to a simpler one, then the probability statistics on these scenarios is given in order to obtain the probability density of the system power difference, and the expected energy not supplied (EENS) and expected wind wa

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Aalderink, R. H., A. Zoeteman, and R. Jovin. "Effect of input uncertainties upon scenario predictions for the river vecht." Water Science and Technology 33, no. 2 (1996): 107–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.1996.0041.

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Within the restoration plan for the river Vecht, the linked flow-water quality model DUFLOW has been applied to describe the behaviour of heavy metals. The model has been used to predict the effects of a number of scenarios for improvement of water quality. In this paper an analysis of the input uncertainty and the effect upon the resulting uncertainty in the output is presented. Both the influence of parameter uncertainty and the uncertainty in the other input variables as: boundary conditions, loading from point and non-point sources, and initial conditions, has been studied. From reported r

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Auza, Anna, Ehsan Asadi, Behrang Chenari, and Manuel Gameiro da Silva. "A Systematic Review of Uncertainty Handling Approaches for Electric Grids Considering Electrical Vehicles." Energies 16, no. 13 (2023): 4983. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16134983.

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This paper systematically reviews the techniques and dynamics to study uncertainty modelling in the electric grids considering electric vehicles with vehicle-to-grid integration. Uncertainty types and the most frequent uncertainty modelling approaches for electric vehicles are outlined. The modelling approaches discussed in this paper are Monte Carlo, probabilistic scenarios, stochastic, point estimate method and robust optimisation. Then, Scopus is used to search for articles, and according to these categories, data from articles are extracted. The findings suggest that the probabilistic tech

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Liu, Tianyue, Cong Wang, Ziqiao Yin, Zhilong Mi, Xiya Xiong, and Binghui Guo. "Complexity Quantification of Driving Scenarios with Dynamic Evolution Characteristics." Entropy 26, no. 12 (2024): 1033. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e26121033.

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Complexity is a key measure of driving scenario significance for scenario-based autonomous driving tests. However, current methods for quantifying scenario complexity primarily focus on static scenes rather than dynamic scenarios and fail to represent the dynamic evolution of scenarios. Autonomous vehicle performance may vary significantly across scenarios with different dynamic changes. This paper proposes the Dynamic Scenario Complexity Quantification (DSCQ) method for autonomous driving, which integrates the effects of the environment, road conditions, and dynamic entities in traffic on com

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Woo, Hyeon, Yongju Son, Jintae Cho, and Sungyun Choi. "Stochastic Second-Order Conic Programming for Optimal Sizing of Distributed Generator Units and Electric Vehicle Charging Stations." Sustainability 14, no. 9 (2022): 4964. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14094964.

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The increased penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) and distributed generator (DG) units has led to uncertainty in distribution systems. These uncertainties—which have not been adequately considered in the literature—can entail risks in the optimal sizing of EV charging stations (EVCSs) and DG units in active distribution network planning. This paper proposes a method for obtaining the optimal sizing of DG units and EVCSs (considering uncertainty), to achieve exact power system analysis and ensure EV driver satisfaction. To model uncertainties in optimal sizing planning, this study first gene

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Steffens, K., M. Larsbo, J. Moeys, E. Kjellström, N. Jarvis, and E. Lewan. "Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 2 (2014): 479–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-479-2014.

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Abstract. Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate

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Steffens, K., M. Larsbo, J. Moeys, E. Kjellström, N. Jarvis, and E. Lewan. "Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 10, no. 8 (2013): 10461–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-10461-2013.

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Abstract. The assessment of climate change impacts on the risk for pesticide leaching needs careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-west Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the r

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Kwon, Soon Ho, Donghwi Jung, and Joong Hoon Kim. "Development of a Multiscenario Planning Approach for Urban Drainage Systems." Applied Sciences 10, no. 5 (2020): 1834. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10051834.

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A traditional urban drainage system (UDS) planning approach generally considers the most probable future rainfall scenario. However, this single scenario (i.e., scenario-optimal) planning approach is prone to failure under recent climatic conditions, which involve increasing levels of uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, an alternative is to consider multiple scenarios simultaneously. A two-phase multi-scenario-based UDS planning approach was developed. Scenario-optimal solutions were determined for a set of scenarios in Phase I, as the traditional planning approach, while common elements

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Wu, C. H., G. R. Huang, and H. J. Yu. "Prediction of extreme floods based on CMIP5 climate models: a case study in the Beijiang River basin, South China." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 11, no. 8 (2014): 9643–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-9643-2014.

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Abstract. The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal, and is expected to be experienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, including flooding. This paper presents an analysis of the implications of climate change on the future flood hazard in the Beijiang River basin in South China, using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Uncertainty is considered by employing five Global Climate Models (GCMs), three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), ten downscaling simulations for each emission scenario, and two stages of future periods (2020–2

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Schwarze, Margaret L., and Lauren J. Taylor. "Managing Uncertainty — Harnessing the Power of Scenario Planning." New England Journal of Medicine 377, no. 3 (2017): 206–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/nejmp1704149.

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Asan, Umut, Seckin Polat, and Ron Sanchez. "Scenario-driven modular design in managing market uncertainty." International Journal of Technology Management 42, no. 4 (2008): 459. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijtm.2008.019386.

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CHUNG, DAE-YOUNG, and BYUNG-CHEON CHOI. "JUST-IN-TIME SCHEDULING UNDER SCENARIO-BASED UNCERTAINTY." Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research 30, no. 02 (2013): 1250055. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217595912500558.

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This paper considers the single-machine scheduling problem, where job parameters are uncertain and the performance measure is to maximize the weighted number of just-in-time jobs, defined as jobs completed exactly on their due dates. Uncertainty is described through a finite set of well-defined scenarios. The criteria for this environment is to minimize the maximum deviation from optimality for all scenarios. We present the computational complexity results for several cases.

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Pomerol, Jean-Charles. "Scenario development and practical decision making under uncertainty." Decision Support Systems 31, no. 2 (2001): 197–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0167-9236(00)00131-7.

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