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1
Albuquerque, André Massena de. "Sovereign credit rating mismatches." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12629.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraEste trabalho analisa que fatores, entre os determinantes de ratings soberanos encontrados na literatura, são responsáveis pelas diferenças entre os ratings de crédito soberanos de diferentes agências de rating, no período 1980-2015. Para tal, utilizaram-se modelos probit ordenados e simples de efeitos aleatórios com o objetivo de avaliar o poder explicativo de um conjunto de variáveis macroeconómicas e governamentais. Os resultados obtidos com os modelos estimados indicam que o saldo estrutural e a existência de um default nos últimos dez anos são as variáveis menos significativas enquanto o nível de dívida líquida, o saldo orçamental, o PIB per capita e a existência de um default nos últimos cinco anos são as variáveis que mais explicam as diferenças entre ratings de agências distintas.
In this work we study the factors, among the determinants of sovereign ratings found in the literature, leading to differences in sovereign credit ratings from different agencies, for the period 1980-2015. We employ random effects ordered and simple probit approaches to assess the explanatory power of different macroeconomic and government variables. Our results point to an average performance of the estimated models. Structural balance and the existence of a default in the last ten years were the least significant variables whereas the level of net debt, budget balance, GDP per capita and the existence of a default in the last five years were found to be the most relevant variables explaining the rating differences across agencies.
2
Paineli, Grazielli Angelucci. "EU sovereign ratings lags prior and after the great recession." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/18858.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraEstudamos as variáveis que mais afetam a alteração dos ratings soberanos na UE para as agências de classificação de crédito Fitch e S&P. Utilizando um modelo de painel probit, avaliamos o impacto de diferentes variáveis econômicas e políticas nas mudanças gerais dos ratings soberanos, aumentamos e diminuímos antes e depois da Grande Recessão. Mais importante, também analisamos o tempo de espera para cada agência de classificação nesses dois períodos, cobrindo especificamente 1997: 12-2018: 12. Nossos resultados mostram que as variáveis econômicas e políticas são consideradas diferentemente nos dois períodos e que o atraso na liderança das mudanças de rating diminui após a crise, especialmente quando essa mudança é uma diminuição no rating. Ainda, trazemos alguns conceitos comportamentais para o raciocínio dessa mudança nas variáveis e comportamento nos lags.
We study the variables that most affect the sovereign ratings change in the EU for Credit Rating Agencies Fitch and S&P. Using a panel probit model we assess the impact of different economic and political variables on sovereign ratings general change, increase and decrease before and after the Great Recession. Most importantly, we also analyse the lead lag time for each rating agency in these two periods, covering specifically 1997:12-2018:12. Our results show that economic and political variables are considered differently in both periods and that the lead lag for rating changes decreases after the crisis, especially when this change is a decrease in the rating. We then enrich the discussion by bringing some behavioural concepts into the reasoning of that change in the variables and lead lag behaviour.
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3
Lubig, Beena. "Bedeutung von sovereign credit ratings für die internationalen Finanzmärkte eine ökonometrische Bewertung des Informationsgehaltes von sovereign credit ratings." Frankfurt, M. Berlin Bern Bruxelles New York, NY Oxford Wien Lang, 2008. http://d-nb.info/994166907/04.
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4
Ioannou, Stefanos. "The political economy of credit rating agencies : the case of sovereign ratings." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2016. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/12327/.
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This thesis investigates the social and economic importance of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs), concentrating on the case of sovereign ratings. By viewing CRAs as an influential institution within the context of neoliberalism and financialization, the thesis offers some new insights regarding the way sovereign ratings are formed and the way they come to affect macroeconomic processes and outcomes. The experience of the European Monetary Union (Eurozone) serves as the case study. The recent and still ongoing European crisis and the flawed institutional structure of the Eurozone make this case study to be of special interest. The thesis consists of three broad parts. The first part sets the background of the thesis. As such it contains some analytical reflections on how to conceptualize CRAs. It also includes a chapter that discusses in detail the institutional arrangements of the Eurozone and the associated stylized facts. The second part consists of two econometric chapters. By employing a dataset based on the original twelve Eurozone countries and on the period from 1999 to 2012, the first chapter decomposes the determinants of sovereign ratings and seeks for evidence of systematically panicked reactions from CRAs. In turn, the second chapter utilizes a panel probit model and investigates the statistical and economic significance of sovereign ratings in explaining episodes of extreme capital flow movements. The third part establishes a two country stock flow consistent model and explores the linkages between sovereign rating movements, the financial market and the constraints for fiscal policy. By separating between a weak country and a strong country, the model shows how following a recessionary shock, the rating downgrade of the weak country can affect the liquidity preference of investors. Such influence deepens the already ongoing recession by amplifying the financial constraints the weak government faces and by forcing it to implement fiscal austerity.
5
Trevino, Villarreal Maria de Lourdes. "Modelling the information content of sovereign credit ratings." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.299284.
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BITTENCOURT, ANA CAROLINA MINSKY. "EFFECTS OF LATIN AMERICA SOVEREIGN RATINGS CHANGES OVER THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2008. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12441@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROO papel deste estudo foi investigar se as alterações de ratings de países da América Latina produzem impactos significativos no mercado acionário brasileiro. Por ser tratar de teste de hipótese semiforte de eficiência de mercado, o estudo foi conduzido através de teste estatístico paramétrico. Os resultados encontrados corroboram com hipótese de efeito contágio no mercado acionário brasileiro, através do índice IBX. O estudo também conclui que a intensidade do impacto também depende do tipo de informação incorporada nos anúncios de mudanças de classificações soberanas.
The objective of this study was to investigate if sovereign rating changes for Latin America affect the Brazilian stock market. To measure this potential impact, the parametrical statistical test of event study was adopted, commonly used in semi-strong market efficiency tests. The results support the idea of contagion effects in the Brazilian Market through the IBX index. This study also concludes that the impact depends on the type of announcement of ratings changes.
7
Vu, Huong Thi. "Split sovereign credit ratings : the causes and implications for the financial markets." Thesis, Bangor University, 2014. https://research.bangor.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/split-sovereign-credit-ratings--the-causes-and-implications-for-the-financial-markets(45ced77d-5ed4-4869-aa97-65329fc7400e).html.
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8
Lee, Eog-Weon. "Sovereign rating changes and financial markets during the Asian crisis /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3091943.
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9
Kim, Jung Yeon. "Currency crisis contagion, capital flows, and sovereign ratings : empirical studies of emerging markets." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2001. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/3095/.
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Followed by the introduction, we begin the thesis by focusing on providing a quantitative indicator of the currency crisis contagion during the 1997-98 East Asian crisis. The severity of contagion is measured using a state-space model and a technical apparatus known as the Kalman filter. The results show that the contagion level is exceptionally high during the peak of the Asian crisis from June 1997 to January 1998. Further econometric tests were carried out to identify whether the crisis is transmitted to countries linked through trade or to countries characterized by macroeconomic similarities. The results indicate that the macroeconomic similarity dominates trade linkage as the major crisis transmission channel. Further, the high level of domestic claims which were financed by foreign capital inflows were shown to be the most significant factor in explaining crisis contagion in 1997-98. The next part of the thesis develops and implements a method for fore-casting capital flows to emerging markets. We provide capital flow forecasts to thirty-two developing countries using a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework based on the underlying fundamental factors driving capital flows. We also use our estimated models to carry out simulation exercises for the behaviour of capital flows under various economic scenarios. In the following part of thesis, using an unobserved components model and maximum likelihood Kalman filtering estimation, we separate out permanent and temporary components of capital flows. Based on these models, and using monthly data up to December 2000, forecasts of various capital flows are presented for the period January 2001 to December 2003. The results of the time series-based forecasts are then compared to those obtained using the fundamentals-based approach.
10
Tran, Vu. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial market volatility : bi-directional relationships and heterogeneous impact." Thesis, Bangor University, 2015. https://research.bangor.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/sovereign-credit-ratings-and-financial-market-volatility--bidirectional-relationships-and-heterogeneous-impact(ccca6f4a-fcfb-4acc-95eb-d6c7acff063f).html.
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This thesis examines the bi-directional relationship between sovereign credit ratings and financial market volatility. Prior literature focuses on one aspect of the relationship which is the impact of credit rating actions on financial assets’ returns, whereas the links between rating actions and market volatility have attracted little attention. Based on a comprehensive dataset of rating events from the three largest credit rating agencies (CRAs) i.e. S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch, this thesis presents unique evidence of (i) inter-relationships between sovereign rating information and equity market volatility dynamics; (ii) heterogeneous effects of sovereign rating actions on equity and foreign exchange market volatilities; (iii) volatility spill-over effects of rating actions. Several methodologies are employed in order to confirm the robustness of the findings, including event study, multivariate regressions, non-parametric tests, Vector Autoregressive models, probit analyses, and Monte Carlo experiments. The findings reveal that certain types of rating news play an important “confirmation role” whereby rating actions can reduce market ex-post volatility and ex-ante uncertainty. Also, there is evidence of differences in rating policies and timeliness across CRAs which provides some explanation for the heterogeneous effects of rating actions. Rating news which incorporates new information, either negative or positive, is associated with elevated ex-ante market uncertainty and ex-post volatility, while additional rating news which is not new to the public can lead to reduced market uncertainty and volatility. The contribution of this thesis is threefold. First, the findings contribute significantly to the debate on the information content of rating news and highlight the importance of multiple ratings in coordinating investors’ heterogeneous beliefs. Second, the thesis provides valuable insights for the debate on the role and regulation of CRAs since the global financial crisis. Third, the findings offer practical implications for option traders, international investors, financial institutions, and portfolio managers.
11
Savadye, Laswet. "The impact of sovereign credit ratings on foreign exchange rate returns in Africa." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/33955.
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This study investigates the impact of sovereign credit ratings on foreign exchange rate returns for a sample of 27 African countries over the period 2003–2018 to examine the response of the exchange rates around the time of sovereign rating announcements. The data consist of longterm foreign currency sovereign ratings, outlooks, watch lists and daily exchange rates. The study applies a combination of an event study methodology using both univariate and multivariate analyses and the Granger causality tests in a panel framework as well as impulse response tests. The results suggest that, in Africa, exchange rates do not react significantly to changes in sovereign credit rating announcements. No significant evidence of contagion was found. It is thus implied that foreign exchange rates do not react significantly to new information from credit rating agencies which shows a disjoint between macro-economic fundamental performance and financial markets. African countries are encouraged to focus on stabilising their currencies, as well as attending to macro-economic fundamentals that will result in improved credit ratings.
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Sibanda, Michael. "Determinants of sovereign credit ratings in an emerging economy: A case of South Africa." Thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28373.
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The author attempts to identify and measure determinants of sovereign credit ratings for emerging markets as rated by the three leading ratings agencies, namely:- Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Sovereign credit ratings have a vital role in capital mobilisation and portfolio inflows as they dictate the cost and eligibility of borrowing in the global capital markets. The sovereign credit ratings also act as a ceiling for sub-sovereign borrowers’ foreign currency ratings, and as suggested by available literature and empirics, sub-sovereigns can never be rated above their sovereign. Emerging markets now account for 40 percent of the world GDP, up from around 20 percent two decades ago. However, despite the strong foreign investment inflows to emerging markets, according to Standard and Poor’s 2016 report, 9 of the top 20 emerging market sovereigns had negative outlook on their credit ratings, thus indicating a possible downgrade over the next two years. Since 2010, South Africa’s sovereign foreign currency ratings have generally been stable to negative, with some downgrades in 2013 and 2015. For the past decade, South Africa has moved from BBB+ to BBB- as at end of 2016. Drawing on the literature, the analysis shows a formalised relationship between certain economic variables and the sovereign credit ratings. Economic variables like economic growth, exchange rate and the country’s external balance of payments have a positive impact on credit ratings, whilst a negative relationship exists between sovereign ratings and variables like inflation and external debt. Based on these findings, a case can be made in assisting emerging and developing countries to obtain and or achieve investment grade credit ratings, not just for central government borrowing, but for local and other sub-sovereign entities' access to international capital markets. Improved ratings can also be useful for securitization and in leveraging official aid and improved borrowing terms for emerging and developing markets.
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MACHADO, RENATA MORAES. "BRAZILIAN SOVEREIGN RATINGS: AN ANALYSIS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THEIR CHANGES ON C-BOND SPREADS." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2005. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=7384@1.
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O rating soberano pode ser definido como uma nota dada
pelas agências de
risco às obrigações do governo central de um país. Apesar
do primeiro rating
atribuído ao país datar de 1986, percebe-se que sua
importância cresceu muito a partir
de 1994, com a emissão dos brady bonds. Em teoria, as
agências de ratings teriam o
papel de antever acontecimentos no mercado, e
conseqüentemente, seriam suas
análises que influenciariam o comportamento dos mesmos; no
entanto, severas
críticas vêm sendo feitas no sentido de que elas apenas
reagem a acontecimentos já
amplamente conhecidos. Este trabalho tem, portanto, o
objetivo de analisar o impacto
das avaliações de risco do país emitidas por estas
agências sobre o principal título da
dívida externa brasileira, o c-bond. Para avaliar estes
impactos, foi analisado o
comportamento do spread do c-bond em períodos anteriores e
posteriores às
divulgações das análises destas agências. O estudo indicou
que os ratings soberanos
influenciam as cotações do c-bond, sendo os impactos de
suas alterações mais
significativas para os casos de downgrade ou rebaixamentos
das notas soberanas do
país.Sovereign rating can be defined as an assessment of the relative likelihood that a Government will default on its obligations. Although the first rating assigned to Brazil dates from 1986, the importance of sovereign rating increased as from 1994, by which time brady bonds were issued and begun to be actively traded. In theory, the role of credit rating would be to add new information to the market, and therefore, their analyses would influence market behaviour; however, several financial market observers have criticized them for just reacting to completely available information. This study therefore analyses the impacts of sovereign rating changes announcements on c-bond spreads. We analysed how c-bond spreads respond to the agencies´ announcements of changes in their sovereign risk assessments and our analyses indicate that the ratings changes do influence c-bond spreads, most significantly in downgrades events.
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Rocca, Nicolò. "The determinants of Brazilian corporate credit ratings: how did the market react to sovereign downgrades?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17983.
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Submitted by Nicolò Rocca (nicolo.rocca@outlook.com) on 2017-02-22T22:26:19Z
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First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors, Professor Miguel Ferreira at Nova SBE and Professor Ricardo Rochman at FGV-EESP, for their constructive feedback and insightful guidance throughout the research. I would also like to thank all the members of International Master in Finance Brazil-Europe for providing me deep knowledge in the areas of corporate finance, quantitative analysis, management of financial institutions and investment banking necessary to excel in today’s international financial markets. Furthermore, I would also like to express gratitude for the extensive facilities provided by the institutions, for the staff and for the IMF program that blends analytical, applied and scientific rigor. I would like to express my most sincere gratitude to my family for providing me continuous encouragement throughout my years of university. Thanks to all of them.
O primeiro objetivo desta pesquisa é estudar quais são os principais determinantes das mudanças nas classificações de crédito corporativo brasileiro fornecidas pela Standard & Poor's. As regressões de painel são aplicadas para analisar as relações entre classificações e sete determinantes. Os resultados mostram cinco determinantes estatisticamente significativos. A segunda parte do estudo examina como as empresas brasileiras listadas reagiram às recentes baixas soberanas emitidas pela Standard & Poor, pela Moody's e pela Fitch. Metodologia do estudo do evento é usada. Todos os eventos apresentam evidências empíricas de retornos anormais negativos, mostrando uma forte correlação negativa entre as ações negativas de rating de crédito eo mercado de ações brasileiro. Ao agregar os eventos, os downgrades ao território da sucata e as mudanças da avaliação de Moody's são aquelas que derrubam estoques retornam o mais.
15
Govender, Sharlene. "The impact of a change in sovereign credit ratings on stock market volatility: A comparison of emerging and developed countries." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28384.
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Sovereign credit ratings affect a country’s financial well-being. The financial markets, at large, have become quite topical within the public space, as well as policy makers and academics. This area has been examined in detail, especially after the global financial crisis of 2008. Rating agencies have been under great scrutiny against their issued ratings and accused of favouring developed economies over developing ones by providing higher ratings to the former. Using a panel of emerging and developed countries over a period of ten years (June 2007 – June 2017), this study examines whether a change in sovereign credit ratings by one of the big three rating agencies has an effect on the volatility of the stock market. This dissertation makes use of an event study over various estimation windows, and the findings depict that changes in sovereign credit ratings do have an effect on stock market volatility. Rating downgrades tend to increase volatility whilst upgrades tend to decrease volatility. Countries that have lower ratings, classified as emerging economies, are no less sensitive to rating changes compared to developed markets and both observe a significant effect on volatility when there is a change in credit ratings. The credit rating agency that had the greatest impact on the volatility of the stock market in response to a rating change is S&P. This was for both upgrades and downgrades. Fitch and Moody’s did not elicit any significant findings. This shows that the market is more responsive to an announcement by S&P than the other agencies. An understanding of the actual effect of this volatility in the equity stock market will have implications for investors, governments, pension funds and asset holders by providing them with country risk assessments and giving them the ability to rebalance their portfolios as required. It also has an impact in determining the cost of capital and evaluating investments, which affect asset allocation decisions. This study has important information, which could help contribute to credit rating agencies’ understanding of the implications that their issued ratings have on the stock market and their contribution to volatility within the market place. The policy implications of this study could affect institutions, especially the Basel committee and banking institutions whom are highly affected by the policies set out by Basel.
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Valkiūnas, Eimantas, and Rūta Laurinavičiūtė. "Valstybės kredito reitingo modeliavimas Baltijos šalių pavyzdžiu." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2013. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2013~D_20130626_190909-34991.
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Magistro baigiamajame darbe išanalizuota ir įvertinta valstybių kredito reitingų suteikimo metodologija, šio proceso kritika, pateikti pasiūlymai esamoms problemoms spręsti. Atlikta koreliacinė, regresinė, pagrindinių komponenčių analizė ir pasinaudojus trijų Baltijos šalių – Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos, pavyzdžiu surasti trys atskiri modeliai, tiksliausiai prognozuojantys minėtų valstybių kredito reitingus, remiantis makroekonominiais rodikliais. Pirmoje darbo dalyje teoriniu aspektu nagrinėjama kredito reitingo samprata, jo reikšmė finansų rinkoms, apibrėžiamos priežastys, lemiančios kredito reitingų trūkumus ir pateikiami tobulinimo siūlymai. Antroje dalyje analizuojamos trijų pagrindinių kredito reitingo agentūrų – Standard and Poor‘s, Fitch ir Moody‘s valstybių kredito reitingo suteikimo metodologijos, tiriama mokslinė literatūra, nagrinėjanti kredito reitingo priklausomybę nuo makroekonominių rodiklių, pateikiamas tyrimo modelis, nagrinėjamos su juo susijusios problemos, apibrėžiama darbo eiga. Trečioje dalyje sudaromos tiesinės daugianarės regresijos lygtys, naudojamos prognozuoti Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos kredito reitingą, atliekamas ateities kredito reitingų prognozavimas remiantis faktiniais 2012 m. IV ketvirčio duomenimis ir numatomais scenarijais.Master's Work analyzed and evaluated methodology of sovereign credit ratings, the critique of the process itself and proposed solutions for existing problems. Correlation, regression and principal components analysis were used to determine distinct models for the three Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Lithuania, that accurately predicts future credit ratings based on macro-economic indicators. The first part examines theoretical aspect of the concept of credit rating, its value to the global financial markets, defines the causes of the credit rating errors, presents possible solutions for the failures of credit ratings. In the second section methodologies used by Standard and Poor's, Fitch and Moody's to determine sovereign credit ratings are analyzed, scientific literature on the dependence of credit rating and macro-economic indicators are examined, research model and problems associated with it are presented, workflow is defined. In the third part linear multiple regression equations are derived which are used to predict future credit ratings of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, future credit ratings predictions are carried out based on actual year 2012 fourth quarter data and future scenarios.
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Coelho, Miguel de Campos Pinto. "Credit ratings and government bonds: evidence before, during and after european debt crisis." Master's thesis, reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/120122.
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This project investigates if there was any influence of credit rating agencies and long-termgovernment bond yields on each other before, during and after Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. This is addressed by estimating the relationship and causality between sovereign debt ratings or bond yields and macroeconomic and structural variables following a different procedure to explain ratings and bond yields. It is found evidence that, in distressed periods, ratings and yields do affect one another. This suggests that a rating downgrade might create a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading relatively stable countries to default.
18
Bagdonas, Valdemaras. "Valstybės kredito reitingų įtaka finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams Baltijos šalyse." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2012. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2012~D_20120703_160300-10939.
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Darbo tema yra aktuali tuo, kad tarptautinės reitingų agentūros, įvertindamos skolų krizę Europoje, pastaruoju metu daugeliui šalių mažino valstybės kredito reitingus ar blogino jų perspektyvas. Nors po prieš trejus metus patirto nuosmukio Baltijos šalių reitingai ir stabilizavosi, jų aukštesnių reikšmių išlaikymas Baltijos valstybėms yra svarbus užsienio investicijų pritraukimo ir šių šalių finansų sektoriaus vystymosi veiksnys. Vis dėlto, reitingų gerėjimas gali turėti ir priešingą poveikį.Todėl svarbu išsiaiškinti situaciją Baltijos šalyse.
Tiriamojo darbo objektas yra Baltijos šalių ilgalaikio ir trumpalaikio skolinimosi užsienio valiuta reitingai bei ilgalaikio ir trumpalaikio skolinimosi nacionaline valiuta reitingai. Šio darbo tikslas - atlikus teorinę valstybės kredito reitingų ir jų įtakos šalies finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams analizę, nustatyti valstybės kredito reitingų įtaką finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams Baltijos šalyse. Darbo tikslui pasiekti buvo suformuluoti uždaviniai: atlikti teorinę valstybės kredito reitingų ir jų įtakos šalies finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams analizę, išanalizuoti Baltijos šalių finansų sektoriaus išsivystymo lygį bei užsienio investicijų srautų ir kredito reitingų šiose šalyse pokyčių tendencijas, reitingus įtakojusius veiksnius, nustatyti valstybės kredito reitingų įtaką finansų sektoriaus vystymuisi ir užsienio investicijų srautams Baltijos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]The topic of the work is relevant due to the fact, that international credit rating agencies, assessing the debt crisis in Europe, recently downgraded credit ratings or their outlook for many countries. Despite the fact that sovereign credit ratings of Baltic states have stabilized after the decline occured three years ago, higher ratings are the essential factor for Baltic states, seeking to attract foreign investment and promote their financial sector development. Though, the improvements of ratings may have the opposite effect. Therefore, it is important to clarify the situation in Baltic states. The object of the research work – the Baltic states‘ short and long term in foreign and local currency ratings. The purpose of this paper is to establish the impact of sovereign credit ratings on the financial sector development and international capital flows in the Baltic states, doing theoretical analysis on sovereign credit ratings and their impact on the financial sector development and international capital flows in a country. In order to achieve an objective, the following tasks have been fomulated: to accomplish above-mentioned theoretical analysis, to analyse the level of financial sector development, changes in trends of international capital flows and sovereign credit ratings in the Baltic states, reveal the main factors, which affected ratings in these countries and ascertain the influence of these ratings on the financial sector development and international capital... [to full text]
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Pénet, Pierre. "Calculating and governing risk in times of crisis : the role of credit ratings in regulatory reasoning and legal change (1930s - 2010s)." Thesis, Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014IEPP0053.
Full textAbstract:
Située à l’articulation de la sociologie de l’économie, de l’histoire de la finance et de la sociologie de la connaissance, cette thèse présente donc une analyse du rôle de la notation du crédit dans la régulation financière, et plus largement, du rôle de l’incertitude et de l’incomplétude juridiques sur les anticipations économiques des acteurs financiers. Le cadre d’analyse de la recherche se résume en quatre points : Premièrement, la thèse rompt avec une lecture strictement intellectualiste de l’action publique et présente une approche de la régulation financière par ses instruments, empruntant ainsi l’approche pragmatiste développée par les social studies of finance et par la nouvelle sociologie économique d’inspiration américaine. Deuxièmement, l’hypothèse centrale de la recherche est que les instruments réglementaires sont à la fois des techniques de connaissance et des outils juridiques. Aussi, ce sont les frictions qu’occasionnent les deux activités parfois contradictoires de calculer et de gouverner qui donnent au changement réglementaire sa dynamique historique. Troisièmement, prenant l’exemple de l’usage de la notation dans la supervision financière comme dispositif de calcul et technique de gouvernement, la thèse propose une histoire de longue durée (1865-2010) de l’activité réglementaire sur les marchés financiers aux Etats-Unis et en Europe au travers de cinq régimes de régulation (régime statutaire, d’appel, disciplinaire, fictionnel et contractuel). Quatrièmement, l’originalité de la recherche est de combiner une approche macroscopique du changement réglementaire avec une approche méticuleuse de plusieurs courtes séquences historiques durant lesquelles d’importantes innovations réglementaires ont vu le jour, notamment le New Deal aux Etats-Unis et la crise de la dette souveraine en Europe. Ainsi, en plus de définir les contours de cinq régimes réglementaires, la thèse analyse la façon dont les régulateurs se sont saisis de la notation financière comme « mécanisme d’embrayage » afin d’opérationnaliser la transition d’un régime à un autreLocated at the intersection of economic sociology, financial history, and the sociology of knowledge, this dissertation examines the role of credit ratings in financial regulation, and more broadly, the role of financial uncertainties and legal incompleteness on financial actors’ anticipatory decisions. The framework set forth in this study can be summarized as follows. First, this study breaks with an intellectualist approach of public action to analyze financial regulation from the perspective of its instruments. As such, this research draws on a pragmatist agenda developed in social studies of finance and recent work in economic sociology. Second, the main hypothesis of this dissertation is to approach regulatory instruments as technologies of knowing and tools of government. From this double viewpoint, I hypothesize that the frictions generated by the two competing activities of calculating and governing impart the regulatory activity with both its structural features and historical dynamics. Third, using the example of regulatory reliance on ratings, I propose a longue durée historical analysis (1865-2010) of the regulatory activity in the U.S. and Europe through the examination of five regulatory regimes (statutory, appeal, disciplinary, fictional, and contractual). Four, one original feature of this dissertation is to combine a macroscopic analysis of regulatory change with a meticulous approach of several short historical sequences during which important regulatory innovations came into being, notably the New Deal in the U.S. and the European sovereign debt crisis. Thus, in addition to setting the contours of five regulatory frameworks, this dissertation analyses the ways in which regulators used ratings as “clutching” devices to operationalize the legal transition from one regime to another
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MARKOSKI, ANGELA SILVA. "EFFECTS OF SOVEREIGN RATING CHANGES OVER BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2004. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=6098@1.
Full textAbstract:
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIORA crescente integração econômica e financeira mundial vem continuamente intensificando a demanda por informações visando subsidiar a tomada de decisões de um investidor global, geralmente baseada em dois fatores primordiais: risco e retorno. Nesse contexto, tornam-se extremamente interessantes as informações produzidas pelas agências de classificação de risco. Tais agências representam, através de notas, o risco de uma determinada nação não arcar com suas dívidas. Conseqüentemente, ao classificar o risco soberano de um país, influenciam investidores de todo o mundo, impactando principalmente, os mercados emergentes, como o brasileiro. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar os efeitos de mudanças dos ratings soberanos brasileiros atribuídos pelas agências de classificação de risco, no mercado acionário nacional. É percorrido um histórico das agências de rating e dos principais bonds por elas avaliados. Também é fornecida uma detalhada descrição das características daquelas agências e a forma de que elas influenciariam o mercado de capitais. Em seguida, através de testes estatísticos, desenvolve-se um estudo de evento, para analisar os efeitos verificados sobre os retornos do índice BOVESPA, nos períodos de upgrade, downgrade ou reavaliação assinalados pelas agências.Por fim, resultados serão expostos e as conclusões apresentadas.
The growing economic and financial integration of the world is continuously intensifying the demand for information, in order to subsidize the decision making of the global investor, generally based on two major factors: risk and return. In this context, the data produced by the Credit Risk Agencies becomes extremely interesting. Such Agencies represent, with grades, the risk of a specific nation does not pay its debt. Consequently, when there is a Sovereign Risk classification of a country, these companies influence investors all over the world, impacting mostly the emerging markets, as well as the Brazilian market. Therefore, the objective of this work is to evaluate the effects of Brazilian Sovereign ratings, attributed by the Credit Agencies, in the national stock bond markets. A history of the Credit Agencies and the most important bonds evaluated by them will be reviewed. Furthermore, a detailed description of the characteristics of those agencies and how they influence the capital markets will be provided. Following, through statistical tests, an event study will be developed to analyze the effects verified in the returns of BOVESPA index, in events of upgrade, downgrade and outlook revision signed by the Credit Agencies. Finally, results are provided and conclusions presented.
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Búry, Jan. "Význam investičního ratingu a mezinárodních ratingových agentur pro stabilitu mezinárodních finančních trhů." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-75407.
Full textAbstract:
Credit rating agencies judge the creditworthiness of the debtors and debt obligations and the relative probability of their default. Credit rating plays a very important role in the financial markets. It influences the behavior of all participants (investors, debtors and regulators) of the market transactions. The first part of the thesis deals with definition and function of the credit rating. The main controversial points in the activity of the credit rating agencies will be discussed, as well as how the industry is regulated. In the second part it is claimed that the opinions of the credit rating agencies on sovereign bonds (sovereign rating) contribute to the overheating of the economies or to the deeper recession due to procyclicity of the rating. The actual credit rating of the country will be compared with a rating based on a theoretical model designed with publicly available economic data.
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Müller, Lukáš. "Problém černého pasažera při ratingu eurozóny - případ Řecka." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-205128.
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This thesis examines an impact of Greek membership in eurozone on a trustworthiness of Greek economy. In order to do that, it uses a methodology of rating agency Moody´s, on which it applies macroeconomic data. The goal is to identify key factor, which caused the discrepancy between awarded rating and real economic stability. The text itself is divided into two thematic parts. The first introduces an institution of rating Agency and explains the Sovereign Rating Methodology 2013. The second than analyze Greek economy using this methodology and applies findings on the causes of Greek debt crisis. Even though Greek membership in eurozone indeed lowered the interest rates of their bonds, direct impact of this membership on country rating wasn´t proved. Therefore one of the reasons of Greek crisis was also a moral hazard, when the financial markets relied on the fact, that eurozone will not let a member state go bankrupt.
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Matelis, Skirmantas. "How do sovereign debt yields respond to credit rating announcements." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Economics, Finance and Statistics, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-18333.
Full textAbstract:
The concept of asymmetric information is probably best described by medieval idiom to buy a pig in a poke or to buy a cat in a sack, and is a long standing issue in a market economy. A solution to this predicament, is thought to be an objective third party certifier who would provide true information for the market participants. Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) by all definitions act as such certifiers within financial markets and have been on the public spotlight for the last years. In both cases, the US subprime mortgage crisis and the EU sovereign debt crisis, the agencies were charged for miss-information on quality of financial products, that led to financial losses for the investors or debtors. Theoretical deduction suggest that certain market reaction to CRA announcements may indicate if markets perceive CRAs themselves as selling a cat in a sack to the investors. Event study approach is employed to investigate how do sovereign debt market react to CRA announcements. The results suggest that sovereign debt market reaction is more pronounced if three major CRAs issue clustered announcements, and more actively react to following announcements as opposed to the leading ones.
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Johnson, James. "Lost in Translation: Rethinking the Politics of Sovereign Credit Rating." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Social and Political Science, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/8684.
Full textAbstract:
Our current understanding of credit rating agencies’ influence on national sovereignty relies on a dichotomised and highly antagonistic view of the relationship between states and the global economy. This perspective is locked into the discursive confines of the structuralist-sceptics debate within the field of international political economy. CRAs are said to either erode state sovereignty or represent a manifestation of it. By abandoning the state-market, public-private and national-global dichotomies embedded within this debate, and the zero-sum mentality they are predicated upon, this thesis offers an alternative – “transformationalist” – perspective to view the power of CRAs and their influence on national sovereignty. Defying traditional categorization, CRAs’ power is the result of a state-market, public-private confluence of interest and therefore has no determinative influence on national sovereignty. In the course of this analysis, a second assumption embedded within the study of CRAs’ influence is criticised: the fixation on the “big three” rating agencies (Moody’s, S&P and Fitch) and the neglect of the significance of the credit rating itself. Because the rating determination process is opaque, and the credit rating itself is a highly simplified expression of an intricately complex financial, economic and political reality, the causes of a sovereign rating change are often “up for debate”. Governments, within certain degrees of interpretation, are able to embed their own domestic political interests into the “causes” of a rating change, thereby co-opting and co-constructing the power and expertise of CRAs. This can, when successful, enhance governments’ internal sovereignty over domestic social forces and their external sovereignty as they “filter” the influence of a non-state actor. New Zealand’s interaction with the CRAs throughout 2008 to 2012 illustrates how this dynamic occurs and its limitations. The thesis seeks to highlight the diversity and heterogeneity involved in the processes of globalization in general, and CRAs’ influence in particular, and in doing so open up political space to consider possible forms of resistance.
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Leturia, Saldaña Fabiola, Villegas Roderick Paredes, Salazar Luis Romaní, and Ruiz Raúl Sotelo. "Sovereign credit default swap vs. credit rating: un modelo empírico." Master's thesis, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12404/13631.
Full textAbstract:
Los últimos eventos de crisis financieras han generado muchas controversias
sobre el rol que han presentado las clasificadoras de riesgo en los mercados financieros
debido a la poca precisión de sus evaluaciones expost y sus cuestionados indicadores de
riesgo los cuales son empleados por inversionistas e instituciones financieras en la toma
de decisiones al momento de adquirir instrumentos de deuda emitidos por determinado
país o corporación.
Este contexto ha generado la búsqueda de herramientas alternativas como es el
caso de las primas de credit default swap (CDS) cuya evidencia empírica ha demostrado
reflejar situaciones potenciales de crisis mucho antes que la valorización de los
instrumentos financieros realizado por las agencias clasificadoras de riesgo.
En ese sentido, el objetivo de esta investigación en primer lugar será verificar la
relación de dependencia entre las primas de CDS y las clasificaciones de crédito soberano,
que dicta que cuando un país obtiene una mejora en su rating crediticio, la correspondiente
prima de su CDS debería disminuir. En segundo lugar, se validar para qué países no se
estaría cumpliendo dicha relación.
El análisis se realizó sobre una muestra de 16 países entre el periodo de octubre
de 2003 a diciembre de 2011, en la cual se aplicó el Modelo de Corrección de Errores
(MCE) propuesto por Engle & Granger. Donde se comprueba que la relación de
dependencia entre las primas de CDS y las clasificaciones de crédito soberano no se
cumple para Estados Unidos, Alemania y Francia a diferencia del resto de países
seleccionados.
Lo que lleva a concluir, en parte, que para estos tres países las calificadoras de
riesgo no están siendo debidamente objetivas ni guardan los mismos niveles de
rigurosidad con que califican a los demás países. Lo que alimentan las críticas que se ciernen sobre ellas y elevar a la prima de los CDS como indicador adicional de riesgo
crediticio.The last events of international crisis have generated many controversies over role than the agencies of risk classification have had in the financial market because of the poor expost evaluation and polemic indicators of risk which have used for investors and financial institutions in the make decisions at the moment when they buy any instrument of debt than a country or company to issue. This context has generated the look for alternatives tools like premium of credit default swap (CDS) how empirical evidence has showed potential situations of crisis before than the valuation of financial instruments estimate for the agencies of risk classification. In that way, the purpose of this investigation first verify the relationship of interdependence between the premium of CDS and the rating of severing credit, than has established when a country obtain a improve in its credit rating at the same time its premium of CDS have to reduce. Second, validate what countries not satisfied that relationship. The analysis made for a sample of 16 countries for the period of October 2003 to December 2011, applied the Error Correction Model developed for Engle & Granger. Where proves there isn’t a relationship of interdependence for United States, Germany and France, that result contrast with the rest of countries. In conclusion, for three countries the rating agencies don’t have an objective and severity analysis when certificated the rest of countries. This situation allows make many criticizes over rating agencies and put the CDS like additional indicators of credit risk.
Tesis
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Berglund, Axel, and Carl Fransson. "Sovereign Credit Rating effects on equity markets: Applied on US Data." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Sektionen för hälsa och samhälle (HOS), 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-18959.
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This paper is a study on how U.S stock market reacts on sovereign credit rating announcements, and if there is a significant difference between low or high debt firms. We have used an event study based on historical stock prices from 30 companies, 15 with high debt and 15 with low debt. All companies are taken from the S&P`s 500 index which we also use as a market index. We use a regression model with 10 % significance level to see if there is a significant impact on high debt firms. Our result shows that the market will be affected by the downgrade. We also conclude that there was a significant negative impact on the high debt firms.
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Orpiszewski, Tomasz. "Le marché des dettes souveraines dans la globalisation financière." Thesis, Paris 9, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA090052/document.
Full textAbstract:
Cette thèse met en avant l’analyse du lien entre le marché de la dette de gouvernement, le risque souverain, la stabilité du système financier et le développement des marchés de la dette locale dans les pays émergents. Afin de remplir l’espace vide dans la littérature académique sur les flux obligataires j’ai construit une nouvelle base des données sur les détentions des obligations souveraines par les investisseurs domestiques et étrangers et, par conséquence, j’ai effectué une analyse empirique des déterminants des flux entrants et sortants par type d’investisseur et pays. Ainsi la thèse projette une image complète de la globalisation des marchés de la dette souveraineThis PhD dissertation presents the analysis of the link between the government debt market, sovereign risk, financial stability and development of the local currency debt in emerging economies. The reserch contribution to the academic literature lies in the empirical analysis of capital flows in bond markets and, for this purpose, I constructed a novel database covering domestic and foreign holdings of government bonds in developed and emerging economies. As a result, this disertation projects a complete and coherent image of the globalisation of sovereign bond markets
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TAVARES, RAFAEL MENDES SOUZA. "EFFECTS OF SOVEREIGN RATING CHANGES OF EMERGING COUNTRIES OVER BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2006. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=8264@1.
Full textAbstract:
O objetivo do presente estudo foi investigar a
possibilidade de alterações de
ratings soberanos de países emergentes produzirem efeitos
no mercado acionário
brasileiro. Para tanto, adotou-se o teste estatístico
paramétrico de estudo de
evento, amplamente utilizado para testes de eficiência
semi-forte de mercado. Os
resultados sugerem que alterações de ratings soberanos de
países emergentes
produzem efeitos no comportamento dos preços do mercado
acionário brasileiro,
ainda que sua intensidade esteja associada ao tipo de
informação que foi
incorporada. Notícias negativas, principalmente os
rebaixamentos de outlook,
carregam um conteúdo informacional maior do que as
positivas. Observou-se
ainda a existência de antecipação dos anúncios negativos
por parte dos agentes.The objective of the study was to investigate the possibility that sovereign rating changes of emerging countries impact the brazilian equity market. For such, the parametric statistical test of event study was adopted, widely utilized for semi-strong efficiency market tests. The results indicate that emerging markets sovereign rating changes produce effects over the behavior of brazilian equity market prices, although the intensity of the impact is associated to the type of information that was incorporated. The study shows that negative news, specially the negative outlook rating assignments, produce higher effects on prices compared to positive news. Futhermore, it was noted that market participants anticipate negative news.
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Vasická, Lucie. "Srovnání sovereign ratingu a rizikové kategorizace zemí a jejich změny po finanční krizi." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-75284.
Full textAbstract:
In the first chapter the paper is focused on sovereign rating, it describes the history and explains the basic characteristics in the context of its usual usage. In the second chapter the basics behind the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits are explained. Because the main purpose of this paper is to compare sovereign rating and the country risk classification based on the Arrangement, the chapter focuses especially on the Knaepen Package that introduced country risk classification to the Arrangement. In the chapter there is also the introduction to the Malzkuhn-Drysdale Package. In the third and fourth chapter sovereign ratings and county risk classifications are compared on theoretical basis. There were used several different criteria, e.g. methodology of rating/classifying, time necessary for adjustment and criteria for evaluation. The fifth chapter is focused on Basel I-III, the connection between Basel capital adequacy and both credit risk evaluation systems is explained. In the following chapter, the question of guilt of rating agencies and their role in the outbreak of financial crisis is discussed. The last chapter is based on the case study that describes the difference between development of financial crisis in Italy and Greece and its impact on rating grades and country risk classification.
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Pereira, Sara Maria Vinhas Maia. "The sovereign CDS-Bond basis: from a crisis perspective." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9564.
Full textAbstract:
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and EconomicsThis work studies the determinants of the sovereign CDS-bond basis distortions, in the Euro area, during the last crises period. Regression analysis showed four relevant conclusions. Credit rating and credit outlook downgrades have a huge impact on the sovereign credit instruments premiums, although not originating arbitrage opportunities. Moreover, the ECB rate has a smoother effect on the sovereign debt markets’ functioning and the risk-transfer balance between the state and the financial sector seems to have shifted from one crisis period to the other. Finally, markets’ liquidity is the most powerful force in driving arbitrage opportunities in the sovereign debt market.
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Bartels, Bernhard [Verfasser]. "Essays on credit rating agencies and the assessment of sovereign risk / Bernhard Bartels." Mainz : Universitätsbibliothek Mainz, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1071065726/34.
Full text
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Mutize, Misheck. "The impact of sovereign credit rating changes on financial market returns in Africa." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29252.
Full textAbstract:
In both developed and developing countries, the extent to which sovereign credit rating announcements bridge the information gap between investors and issuers of securities is debatable. Thus, this thesis investigates the effects of the information provided by credit rating agencies on financial markets in 30 African countries during the period of 1994 to 2014 in order to determine whether long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating announcements contain material information that influences the secondary market stock and bond returns. The analyses draws the following findings. First, African financial markets are weakly sensitive to sovereign credit rating announcements, which implies that there is no significant evidence of excess market returns influenced by sovereign credit rating announcements. Hence, it is inferred that the announcements of sovereign credit ratings do not significantly change the African financial market returns because they are already perceived to be risky markets, and thus attract mostly passive and long-term investors. Second, the changes in sovereign ratings do not have the same implications for both stockholders and bondholders as shown by the weak positive association between sovereign credit ratings and stock and bond markets. Third, there are marginal regional sovereign rating spillover impacts that are quickly absorbed into capital markets trading long-term securities. However, there are marginal spillover effects that persist over longer time periods in sovereign ratings of countries in the same region from a sovereign rating change in a neighbouring country. These results imply that the regional bilateral linkages between countries serve as channels of capital and sovereign credit rating information flow. Lastly, the sovereign credit ratings do not significantly impact bond market efficiency. In contrast, stock markets show evidence of weak form efficiency implying that long-term sovereign credit ratings positively affect equity market efficiency in Africa. Thus, the empirical findings in this thesis show that the operations of credit rating agencies and their sovereign credit ratings appear to be less important in the operation of stocks and bond markets in Africa. Governments should however take cognizance of the long-term information exchange between investors and borrowers, and the consequential nature of credit ratings to proactively manage the risks of negative sovereign credit rating announcements.
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Svačina, Lubomír. "Ratingové agentury a jejich význam pro rozhodování finančních trhů a hospodářskou politiku." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-199240.
Full textAbstract:
This paper performs an analysis of rating agencies and evaluates their importance for financial markets and economic policy. The importance of rating agencies and their ratings is assessed based on two criteria -- independence and accuracy of ratings, both criteria are analysed in detail from different views throughout this paper. Independence of rating agencies is considered in terms of historical context and the most important development milestones and trends, in terms of market positioning and demand for services of rating agencies, in terms of ownership structures and financing models. Accuracy of ratings is considered by historical analyses of sovereign ratings from the times of the Asian financial crisis, the European debt crisis and sovereign debt defaults and restructuralisations since 1990. In the issue of independence, the paper has revealed several risk factors, mainly in relation to financing model "issuer pays". In the issue of sovereign rating accuracy, the paper has come to a conclusion that rating agencies were only able to identify the most visible negative trends -- defaults and restructuralisations of debts in countries, where the problems had developed gradually. On the other hand, in surprising and sudden cases such as the Asian financial crisis and the European debt crisis, rating agencies were suprised just like the wider investor's public.
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Balima, Weneyam Hippolyte. "Essays on economic policies and economy of financial markets in developing and emerging countries." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2017-2020), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017CLFAD024/document.
Full textAbstract:
Cette thèse s'intéresse aux questions d'accès aux marchés financiers dans les économies émergentes et en développement. La première partie donne un aperçu général des conséquences macroéconomiques de l'un des régimes de politique monétaire le plus favorable au marché - le ciblage d'inflation - en utilisant le cadre d'analyse de la méta-analyse. La deuxième partie analyse le risque et la stabilité des marchés obligataires des États. La troisième et dernière partie examine les effets disciplinaires résultant de la participation aux marchés obligataires souverains. Plusieurs résultats émergent. Au chapitre 1, les résultats indiquent que la littérature sur les effets macroéconomiques du ciblage d'inflation est sujette à des biais de publication. Après avoir purgé ces biais, le véritable effet du ciblage d'inflation reste statistiquement et économiquement significatif à la fois sur le niveau de l'inflation et la volatilité de la croissance économique, mais ne l’est pas sur la volatilité de l'inflation ou le taux de croissance économique réel. Aussi, les caractéristiques des études déterminent l’hétérogénéité des résultats de l'impact du ciblage d’inflation dans les études primaires. Le chapitre 2 montre que l'adoption d'un régime de ciblage d'inflation réduit le risque souverain dans les pays émergents. Cependant, cet effet varie systématiquement en fonction du cycle économique, de la politique budgétaire suivie, du niveau de développement et de la durée dans le ciblage. Le chapitre 3 montre que les envois de fonds des migrants, contrairement aux flux d'aide au développement, permettent de réduire le risque souverain. Cette réduction est plus marquée dans un pays avec un système financier moins développé, un degré d'ouverture commerciale élevé, un espace budgétaire faible et sans effet dans les pays dépendants des envois de fonds. Le chapitre 4 montre que les pays ayant des contrats d’échange sur risque de crédit sur leurs dettes sont plus sujets à des crises de dette. Il constate également que cet effet reste sensible aux caractéristiques structurelles des pays. Le chapitre 5 montre que la participation aux marchés obligataires de long terme (domestiques et internationaux) encourage les gouvernements des pays en développement à accroître leurs recettes fiscales intérieures. Il révèle également que l'effet favorable dépend du niveau des recettes de seigneuriage, d’endettement, du régime de change, du niveau de développement économique, du degré d’ouverture financière, et du développement financier. Le chapitre 6 montre que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques, de long terme et liquides réduit considérablement le degré de dollarisation financière dans les pays en développement. Cet effet est plus important dans les pays avec un régime monétaire de ciblage d’inflation ou de change flottant, et à règles budgétaires. Enfin, il constate que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques réduit la dollarisation financière à travers la baisse du niveau et de la variabilité de l'inflation, de la variabilité du taux de change nominal, et des revenus de seigneuriageThis thesis focuses on some critical issues of the access to international financial markets in developing and emerging market economies. The first part provides a general overview of the macroeconomic consequences of one of the most market-friendly monetary policy regime—inflation targeting—using a meta-regression analysis framework. The second part analyses government bond market risk and stability. The last part investigates the disciplining effects of government bond market participation—bond vigilantes. In Chapter 1, the results indicate that the literature of the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting adoption is subject to publication bias. After purging the publication bias, the true effect of inflation targeting appears to be statistically and economically meaningful both on the level of inflation and the volatility of economic growth, but not statistically significant on inflation volatility or real GDP growth. Third, differences in the impact of inflation targeting found in primary studies can be explained by differences in studies characteristics including the sample characteristics, the empirical identification strategies, the choice of the control variables, inflation targeting implementation parameters, as well as the study period and some parameters related to the publication process. Chapter 2 shows that the adoption of inflation targeting regime reduces sovereign debt risk in emerging countries. However, this relative advantage of inflation targeting—compared to money or exchange rate targeting—varies systematically depending on the business cycle, the fiscal policy stance, the level of development, and the duration of countries’ experience with inflation targeting. Chapter 3 shows that remittances inflows significantly reduce bond spreads, whereas development aid does not. It also highlights that the effect of remittances on spreads arises in a regimes of lower developed financial system, higher degree of trade openness, lower fiscal space, and exclusively in non-remittances dependent regimes. Chapter 4 indicates that countries with credit default swaps contracts on their debts have a higher probability of experiencing a debt crisis, compared to countries without credit default swaps contracts. It also finds that the impact of credit default swaps initiation is sensitive to several structural characteristics including the level of economic development, the country creditworthiness at the timing of credit default swaps introduction, the public sector transparency, the central bank independence; and to the duration of countries’ experiences with credit default swaps transactions. Chapter 5 shows that bond markets participation encourages government in developing countries to increase their domestic tax revenue mobilization. Finally, it finds that bond markets participation improves the mobilization of internal taxes, compared to tax on international trade, and reduces their instability. Chapter 6 shows that the presence of domestic bond markets significantly reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries. This effect is larger for inflation targeting countries compared to non-inflation targeting countries, is apparent exclusively in a non-pegged exchange rate regime, and is larger when there is a fiscal rule that constrains the conduct of fiscal policy. Finally, it finds that the induced drop in inflation rate and its variability, nominal exchange rate variability, and seigniorage revenue are potential transmission mechanisms through which the presence of domestic bond markets reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries
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Martell, Rodolfo. "Three essays in international finance." Connect to this title online, 2005. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1111754376.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2005.Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xiv, 147 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 91-98). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center
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LIMA, MARIANO VIEIRA. "CORPORATE CREDIT AND SOVEREIGN RISK: ASYMMETRIES IN PRICE REACTION TO RATING REVIEWS AND TO EARNINGS RELEASES." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2017. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=33195@1.
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O presente trabalho analisa o movimento recente nos preços de eurobonds emitidos por empresas brasileiras e a sua relação com a evolução do risco soberano brasileiro. Com o objetivo de verificar possíveis assimetrias na reação dos preços desses títulos a novas informações sobre as empresas emissoras em diferentes níveis do CDS associado à dívida soberana brasileira, testamos o comportamento dos preços dos eurobonds à divulgação de informações indicadoras dos fundamentos específicos das firmas emissoras de dívida, a saber: (i) alterações do rating atribuído por agências especializadas e (ii) anúncio do lucro por ação trimestral das empresas de capital aberto. Em linha com a literatura sobre o assunto, encontramos evidências de uma relação importante entre risco soberano e corporativo para o caso brasileiro.The present work analyzes the recent movement in the prices of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian companies and its relationship with the evolution of Brazilian sovereign risk. To identify possible asymmetries in the price reaction of these securities to new information regarding the debt issuers at different levels of the CDS associated with Brazilian sovereign debt, we tested the behavior of eurobonds prices to the disclosure of information about the specific fundamentals of issuers (i) changes in the rating attributed by specialized rating agencies and (ii) announcement of the quarterly earnings per share of publicly traded companies. In line with the literature on the subject, we find evidence of an important relationship between sovereign and corporate risk for the Brazilian case.
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Restrepo, Gomez Felipe. "Essays on the Effects of Financing Frictions." Thesis, Boston College, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:101437.
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Thesis advisor: Philip E. StrahanIn the first essay of this dissertation I examine the bank credit supply and industry growth effects stemming from the introduction of bank account debit (BAD) taxes using a sample of Latin American countries between 1986 and 2005. I first show that the introduction of BAD taxes is followed by a reduction in the provision of bank credit to the private sector. I identify that a key channel through which these taxes affect credit is by creating a strong incentive to hold cash and reduce the use of bank deposits. I also provide evidence that their implementation ultimately affects economic growth, mainly by reducing the growth prospects of industries that are more susceptible to distortions in the supply of credit. In the second chapter I use a large sample of private firms in Colombia to investigate the impact of the introduction and changes of BAD taxes on the financing and investment decisions of firms. I first document that bank leverage decreases from an average of 23% in the years before the tax to 18% in the post-tax years. Furthermore, using a differences-in-differences empirical strategy, I find that small-risky firms reduce more their leverage and capital expenditures relative to large-high credit quality firms, even after controlling for firms' demand characteristics. In the last essay, written jointly with Heitor Almeida, Miguel A. Ferreira and Igor Cunha, we exploit the sovereign ceiling policy by credit rating agencies to show that sovereign rating downgrades have a real impact on firm investment and financial policy. We identify these causal effects by exploring the effect of sovereign downgrades on corporate ratings that are due to the rating agencies' sovereign ceiling rules. We find that sovereign downgrades lead to greater reduction in investment and leverage at firms that are at the sovereign rating bound than at otherwise similar firms that are below the bound. Consistent with a contraction in capital supply, bond yields of firms at the bound increase more than yields of firms below the bound
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014
Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management
Discipline: Finance
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Karpava, Marharyta. "Determinants of forex market movements during the European sovereign debt crisis: The role of credit rating agencies." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Economics, Finance and Statistics, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-18398.
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The purpose of this thesis is to identify key factors underlying exchange rate developments during the European sovereign debt crisis by examining the impact of credit rating news, published by the three leading credit rating agencies, on conditional returns and volatility of EUR/USD (direct quotation) exchange rate. Empirical results highlight the importance of interest rate differential and volatility index of options exchange in explaining EUR/USD exchange rate volatilities. Downgrade announcements by Standard & Poor’s as well as watch revisions by Fitch Ratings had a detrimental impact on the value of Euro, leading to a subsequent Euro depreciation over the period under consideration (January 2009 – April 2012).
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Cüppers, Laura Natalie [Verfasser], Heinz-Dieter [Gutachter] Smeets, and Ulrike [Gutachter] Neyer. "Financial Markets, Sovereign Default and Credit Rating Agencies / Laura Natalie Cüppers ; Gutachter: Heinz-Dieter Smeets, Ulrike Neyer." Düsseldorf : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek der Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1114884936/34.
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Šlachtičová, Zuzana. "Predikcia postavenia ratingových agentúr na finančných trhoch." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-124901.
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The thesis is devoted to the position of rating agencies in the financial markets. The main aim is to predict the position of these companies, which is currently mainly influenced by the European politicians. Politicians criticize them and try to limit their power. The essence of this thesis is to summarize the reasons for their criticism, focusing on reduction of sovereign ratings. Then it's discussed a downgrading the USA and France. For the first time in a history they lost their AAA rating. The last chapter is devoted to the possible position of rating agencies. The first option is the establishment of the European rating agency, the other one is tightening regulation and the last is a situation if the rating agencies were abolished.
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Navrátil, Jan. "Suverénní entity - financování, kreditní riziko a rating." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-207035.
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The echoes of Eurozone debt crisis brought into question the sovereign risk of advanced economies. Understanding factors that influence this risk is key to avoid similar crisis of public debt financing in the future. The main aim of this thesis is to identify which factors influence sovereign entity financing and how the problems of public debt financing arise. This is reached through analysis of debt crisis development and its causes in the GIPS economies.
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Cibulka, Jakub. "Analýza vztahu mezi změnou ratingu vládních dluhopisů a tržním chováním." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-113549.
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This master thesis analyzes the relationship between the change of sovereign rating and market behaviour. The first part is devoted to rating itself. I present the various types of the rating, development, structure and risks of the market for credit rating agencies. The second part focuses on the nature of government bonds and the methodology for determining credit rating. The third part contains an analysis of market indicators in selected countries, econometric analysis of the relationship between credit ratings and risk perception in the market and comparison with other indicators of potential default. I summarize all the knowledge in the conclusion and I am trying to predict future developments in the market for credit rating agencies.
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Horáková, Eva. "Analýza změn k přístupu ratingu státu po finanční krizi." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-359563.
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This thesis deals with globalisation of markets. It focuses on examining the economic crisis of 2008 and 2010 and on how individual countries can cope with deteriorating of macroeconomic values, especially with financial implications of this situation. The thesis also examines credit rating agencies as indicators of financial soundness of investment instruments, to which is often reffered as to culprits of the crisis for their reaction to the development of the mortgage market. The thesis defines the rating in the concept of sovereign states and describes the market of credit rating agencies. It further evaluates individual rating agencies and practices in the context of the crisis, bringing a comprehensive picture of the role they played at the beginning of the crisis. It also attempts to outline more points of view on the previously unilaterally and predominantly negatively perceived issue of reputation of credit rating agencies.
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BRANDAO, FREDERICO RENAN SIMOES. "IMPACTS OF SOVEREIGN RATING CHANGES TO BRAZIL ON THE SHARES OF STATE-OWNED COMPANIES TRADED ON THE BRAZILIAN STOCK MARKET." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2015. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=29480@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROAtualmente, com a intensificação da integração econômica e financeira dos mercados, o enfraquecimento das fronteiras nacionais e o significativo crescimento do comércio internacional, os investidores estão direcionando cada vez mais seus fluxos de capitais para os mercados externos, de forma a promover a diversificação internacional de suas carteiras, reduzindo o risco ao mesmo nível de retorno aos apresentados por carteiras puramente nacionais. É neste contexto de expansão internacional dos mercados e de elaboração de carteiras internacionais que as informações referentes aos riscos de cada investimento se tornam ainda mais importantes. Neste sentido, visando suprir essas necessidades de informações, começaram a surgir no início do século XX as empresas privadas de rating com o propósito de fornecer as classificações de risco dos emissores de títulos, os ratings de crédito. Consequentemente, ao classificar o risco de um título, esses ratings possuem a capacidade de influenciar o mercado como um todo. Assim, esse trabalho objetiva verificar o impacto que as alterações de rating soberano brasileiro pelas agências especializadas produzem no mercado acionário brasileiro, mais especificamente no comportamento das ações de empresas estatais, visto que estas deveriam ser supostamente mais impactadas que as demais frente a essas revisões, tanto via resposta do mercado como um todo quanto ao fato de ter a percepção do risco de seu controlador diretamente alterado por esses ratings. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um estudo de evento, para analisar os efeitos verificados sobre os retornos de mercado (IBOVESPA) e das empresas estatais, nos períodos de downgrade e de upgrade.
Currently, with the intensification of economic and financial integration of the markets, the weakening of national borders and the significant growth of international trade, investors are increasingly directing their capital flows towards external markets in order to promote international diversification of their portfolios, reducing the risk at the same level of return to those presented by purely domestic portfolios. It is in this context of international expansion of markets and of the development of international portfolios that the information regarding the risks of each investment becomes even more important. In this sense, in order to meet these information needs, the private rating companies began to emerge as early as the twentieth century, in order to provide risk ratings regarding the issuers of securities, credit ratings. Consequently, by classifying the risk of a security, these ratings have the ability to influence the market as a whole. Thus, this study aims to investigate the impact that Brazilian sovereign rating changes by these specialized agencies have in the Brazilian stock market, specifically regarding the behavior of shares of state-owned companies, as these should supposedly be more affected than the others against sovereign risk reviews, both through the market s response as a whole and by the fact that the perception of risk by their majority shareholder is directly altered by these ratings. To this end, an event study is conducted to analyze the effects seen on market returns (IBOVESPA) and state enterprises, in periods of downgrade and upgrade.
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Scarabel, Mirela Virginia Perrella. "O impacto de mudanças de rating soberano sobre a taxa de câmbio em países emergentes." Universidade de São Paulo, 2010. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-29112010-183257/.
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O objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar o impacto de mudanças de rating soberano sobre a taxa de câmbio de países emergentes. Embora a literatura relacionada já tenha estudado o impacto de mudanças de rating soberano sobre ações, títulos e até fluxo de capital, nada foi feito sobre taxas de câmbio. Todavia, taxas de câmbio devem responder de maneira interessante a mudanças de rating, pois além de serem ativos financeiros, as moedas desempenham a função de intermediar o investimento estrangeiro nos demais ativos domésticos. Empregamos a metodologia de estudo de evento acrescentando a ela uma modificação que nos permite controlar a análise por efeitos agregados. Utilizando uma base de dados diária de taxas de câmbio de 23 países emergentes encontramos, grosso modo, evidências de que downgrades estão associados a depreciações da moeda doméstica, ao passo que, upgrades não provocam nenhuma reação significativa na taxa de câmbio. Este resultado vai ao encontro da literatura que estuda o impacto de mudanças de rating em ações, títulos e fluxo de capitais. Além disso, dentre ainda outros resultados, encontramos evidências de que o mercado antecipa o evento relevante e que não há efeitos defasados.The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the impact of sovereign rating changes on the exchange rate of emerging markets. Although the related literature has studied the impact of sovereign rating changes on stocks, bonds and even capital flows, nothing has been done on exchange rates. However, exchange rates should respond in an interesting way to rating changes because the currency is a financial asset and has a role in intermediating foreign investment in other domestic assets. We employ the event study methodology by adding to it an amendment that allows us to control the analysis by aggregate effects. Using a database of daily exchange rates of 23 developing countries, we found evidence that downgrades are associated with depreciations of the domestic currency, whereas, upgrades do not cause any significant reaction in the exchange rate. This result is consistent with the literature that studies the impact of rating changes on stocks, bonds and capital flows. Moreover, even among other results, we find evidence that the market anticipates the relevant event and there is no lagged effects on the market.
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Haas, Jakub. "Fiskální pravidla a jejich efektivita ? anglofonní země a EMU." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-4232.
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Diplomová práce se zaměřuje na zkoumání fiskálních pravidel - omezení fiskální politiky, která byla přijata v průběhu devadesátých let 20. století. Zkoumané země se dělí na dvě skupiny. Zaprvé se jedná o anglofonní země (Spojené království, Austrálie, Nový Zéland) s odlišným právním a politickým systémem než země druhé skupiny - Evropské měnové unie, které musely akceptovat tzv. Maastrichtská kritéria a Pakt stability a růstu. Analýza efektivnosti fiskální pravidel, která zahrnují pravidla numerická, procesní i transparentnostní, se zaměří na rizikovou prémii u úrokových sazeb finančního trhu jednotlivých zemí, na tzv. sovereign rating hodnotící kreditní riziko a samozřejmě také na konkrétní výsledky působení pravidel na fiskální agregáty jednotlivých zemí. Ačkoliv byla klíčová pravidla přijata až v devadesátých letech, reflektovala určitý vývoj veřejných financí v minulosti, proto se práce zaměří také na historické aspekty vzniku těchto pravidel, které hrály důležitou roli při jejich konstrukci. Výsledkem analýzy pak bude mezinárodní komparace efektivity fiskálních pravidel, která pomůže formulovat obecnější hospodářsko-politická doporučení pro země s rizikovým vývojem veřejných financí.
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Mandon, Pierre. "New empirics on transdisciplinary political economics : essays on the economics of democratic modalities." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2017-2020), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017CLFAD021.
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L'objet de la présente thèse concerne l'étude de l'impact économique de trois modalités démocratiques, à savoir (i) l'agenda électoral, (ii) l'affiliation partisane des dirigeants en place dans un cadre de multipartisme, et (iii) les changements de gouvernance constitutionnellement définis. Afin d'introduire notre étude, nous décrivons la relation qui existe entre les modalités démocratiques et la démocratie directe d'une part et la politique budgétaire d'autre part, aux Etats-Unis sur la période 1790-2014 dans l'Introduction Générale. Dans le Chapitre 2 nous étudions l'effet authentique et potentiellement néfaste des cycles politico-budgétaires. Notre méta-analyse suggère que les dirigeants nationaux manipulent effectivement le budget dans un but de réélection mais l'ampleur du phénomène est largement exagérée par la littérature. Toutefois, le biais de publication mis en lumière s'est significativement réduit lors des 25 dernières années de recherches. Dans le Chapitre 3 nous étudions comment l'affiliation partisane des gouverneurs américains affecte le statut de pauvreté des immigrants, aux Etats-Unis, sur la période 1994-2014. Pour ce faire, nous comparons le niveau de pauvreté des immigrants dans les Etats gouvernés par les Démocrates au niveau de pauvreté des immigrants constaté dans les Etats gouvernés par les Républicains. En accord avec la littérature sur l'affiliation partisane, nous trouvons que les immigrants ont plus d'opportunités de sortir de la pauvreté sous les Démocrates que sous les Républicains. Une analyse formelle de médiation révèle que nos résultats empiriques sont médiatisés par un meilleur accès au marché du travail et possiblement de meilleures rétributions du travail, pour les immigrants. Dans le Chapitre 4 nous cherchons à vérifier l'évolution des notations souveraines lors des périodes d'inauguration des nouveaux dirigeants sur un échantillon de 18 pays d'Amérique Latine et des Caraïbes ayant des systèmes présidentiels. A partir de données de panel journalières s'étendant du 1er janvier 1994 au 31 décembre 2014, nous trouvons que les notations souveraines sont de meilleure qualité durant les périodes d'inauguration anticipées comparées aux autres périodes d'inauguration. En outre, nos résultats montrent que durant ces périodes d'inauguration anticipées, les notations sont encore meilleures lorsque le dirigeant entrant (i) est économiquement de droite, (ii) dispose d'un diplôme universitaire d'un pays de l'OCDE, (iii) a un parcours professionnel traditionnel, (iv) a une approche non populiste, et (v) dispose de marges électorales de victoire importantes. Il apparaît également un biais de genre potentiel à la faveur des nouveaux dirigeants de sexe masculin. En prenant avantage d'un modèle de durée et de régressions de Cox -- modèle à risque proportionnel, nous mettons en lumière que les périodes d'inauguration des dirigeants affectent également la probabilité instantanée de dégradation des notations souveraines. Enfin, dans la Conclusion Générale nous explorons les racines des pensées antisystèmes en Occident, puis nous discutons des avantages et inconvénients de quelques formes alternatives de démocratie, à savoir (i) la démocratie directe, (ii) le tirage au sort, et (iii) le développement participatif comme bien public. Finalement, nous explorons les controverses concernant les formes alternatives de démocratie sur l'agora virtuelle que constitue TwitterThe aim of the present dissertation is to empirically investigate the economic impact of three democratic modalities, namely (i) the electoral agenda; (ii) the partisan affiliation of incumbents in a multipartism framework; and (iii) constitutionally defined leadership changes. To introduce the scope of the dissertation we describe the democratic modalities and direct democracy behind the U.S. fiscal policy from 1790 to 2014, in the General Introduction.In Chapter 2 we study the genuine detrimental effect of political budget cycles. Our meta-analysis suggests that national leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be re-elected, but to an extent that is significantly exaggerated in the literature. The publication selection bias highlighted has nonetheless been reduced during the past 25 years of research. In Chapter 3 we investigate how governors' partisan affiliation affects the poverty status of immigrants to the U.S for the period 1994-2014. To this end, we compare the poverty outcomes of immigrants in states ruled by Democratic governors relative to the outcomes for those in states ruled by Republican governors. Consistent with the literature on partisan affiliation, we find that immigrants are more likely to get out of poverty in states with Democratic governors than states with Republican governors. A formal mediation analysis reveals that the empirical results are mediated through better access to the labor market and possibly through higher wages and labor earnings for immigrants. In Chapter 4 we assess whether sovereign credit ratings change during the inauguration periods of incoming leaders, on a sample of 18 Latin American and Caribbean countries with presidential systems. Building on a daily panel dataset covering the period from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2014, we find that credit ratings are better during anticipated inauguration periods compared to other inauguration periods. Moreover, our results reveal that, during anticipated inauguration periods, incoming leaders with (i) an economically right-wing orientation; (ii) an OECD college degree; (iii) a traditional professional background; (iv) a non-populist approach; and (v) large electoral margins of victory are associated to even better ratings. There also appears to be a potential gender bias effect in favor of male incoming leaders. Last but not least, the quality of the credit rating also matters. In the General Conclusion we explore the roots of anti-systemism in the West, then we discuss some alternative forms of democracy, and we explore the controversies regarding the alternative forms of democracy on the virtual \emph{agora} of Twitter
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Palazzi, Rafael Baptista. "O papel das agências de rating: evidências da crise asiática." Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2011. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/9176.
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Previous issue date: 2011-11-16The actual study aims to analyze the role of credit rating agencies in the world crisis, focusing on the Asian crisis, the Agencies whose work had an important role. We have argued that in Asian crisis the rating agencies have not been able to anticipate the crisis and have acted in a way to intensify it. This paper presents, previously, the historical background of the Rating Agencies and analyzes the structure of the methodology disclosed by them, which is used for classification of the ratings. Through the relevant literature review it will be analyzed the determinants and impacts of the ratings in emerging market economies, particularly in the Asian crisis. Therefore it will be discussed the role of the rating Agencies in the Asian crisis and, briefly, it will be shown the acting of rating agencies in the other world crises
O presente estudo visa analisar o papel das agências classificadoras de risco nas crises mundiais, com foco na crise asiática, quando a atuação das agências teve um papel importante. Argumentamos que, na crise asiática as Agências de rating não foram capazes de antecipar a crise e agiram de forma a intensificá-la. O trabalho apresenta, inicialmente, um panorama histórico das agências de rating e analisa a estrutura da metodologia divulgada pelas agências que é utilizada para classificação dos ratings. Por meio da revisão da literatura relevante, serão analisados os determinantes e os impactos dos ratings nas economias emergentes e, principalmente, os impactos na crise asiática. Por fim será discutido o papel das agências na crise asiática e, brevemente, será destacada a atuação das agências em outras crises mundiais
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Mattes, Flávia Raquel. "A influência do rating soberano brasileiro nas cláusulas restritivas dos contratos de emissões de debêntures." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2015. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/5941.
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O presente estudo tem por objetivo analisar e classificar as cláusulas restritivas dos contratos de emissões de debêntures, verificando as alterações destas cláusulas e as influências do cenário de elevação de risco, mensurado pelo rating soberano brasileiro, apresentado na data de emissão das debêntures. Adicionalmente, verificar as estruturas dos covenants e mecanismos utilizados para a mitigação de risco nas emissões e determinar quais os covenants contábeis e financeiros mais utilizados nos dois períodos de risco estabelecidos. Para estudar estas alterações, foram verificados os contratos de emissões de debêntures emitidas no período de 01/01/2011 até 31/03/2016, de emissões com registro na CVM e na modalidade ICVM 400. Após a coleta de dados realizada, foi formada uma base de dados com 49 escrituras de emissões e 1.883 cláusulas restritivas, organizadas em 2 grupos de acordo com o rating soberano apresentado na data de emissão da escritura de debêntures. Foram utilizadas técnicas de estatística e análise qualitativa mediante a leitura e classificação dos covenants de todas as escrituras, prospectos, atas de assembleia de debenturistas e relatórios de agentes fiduciários. Os resultados do estudo demonstram que no período de maior risco os emissores apresentam dificuldades em cumprir os covenants financeiros e manter o rating apurado pelas agências classificadoras no início do contrato, resultando em eventos de inadimplementos e descumprimento dos covenants, nos quais os debenturistas e os emissores efetuaram acordos com pagamento de prêmios adicionais de risco e repactuações visando garantir a continuidade dos contratos até o vencimento, em detrimento de exigir o pagamento antecipado da dívida. Após a análise proposta e dos resultados, de acordo com o objetivo do estudo, foi possível demonstrar que o risco soberano não causa impacto como alterações estruturais nos covenants e no nível de restritividade dos covenants contábeis, embora as alterações de risco tenham consequências econômicas na captação de investimentos para as empresas.
The present study aims to analyze and to classify the covenants of debenture issuance contracts, assessing the main changes of such terms and the influences of the increasing risk scenario, measured by the Brazilian sovereign rating, submitted on the date of issuance of the debentures. In addition, it analyses covenant structures and mechanisms used for risk mitigation in issuing and determining which accounting and financial covenants are the most used in both risk periods established. In order to study these changes, the debentures contracts issued in the period between 01/01/2011 to 03/31/2016 were analyzed, registered with the CVM and CVM Instruction 400. After collecting data, it was formed a database with 49 issuing scriptures and 1.883 covenants, organized into 2 groups according to the sovereign rating displayed on the date of issuance of debentures. Statistical techniques and qualitative analysis were used by reading and rating of the covenants of all scriptures, prospectuses, debenture holder’s meeting minutes and trustees reports. The findings showed that it was during the greatest period of risk when issuers had difficulties to meet financial covenants and to maintain the rating determined by the rating agencies at the beginning of the contract, resulting in defaults events and noncompliance with the covenants in which the debenture holders and issuers agreed with payment of additional premiums of risk and renegotiations to ensure the continuity of contracts to maturity, to the detriment of demanding early repayment of debt. Upon completion of the proposed methodology and results analysis, according to the purpose of the study, we could demonstrate that sovereign risk has no impact as structural changes in the covenants and restrictive level of financial covenants, although the risk of changes have economic consequences in attracting investment for companies.
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Nunes, Danielle Barcos. "Três estudos econométricos sobre o papel das reservas internacionais brasileiras." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/18306.
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Nesta tese são desenvolvidos três estudos sobre as reservas internacionais brasileiras, utilizando diferentes técnicas econométricas, com o objetivo de determinar a influência de medidas absolutas e relativas de reservas sobre o rating soberano de crédito e o spread soberano, bem como o nível adequado para garantir a liquidez externa. As análises foram feitas com dados mensais do período jan/2000-jun/2008. No primeiro estudo, mostrou-se que diferentes medidas de reservas internacionais apresentam efeito significativo na explicação do rating soberano de crédito, através de modelos ordered logit para a média dos ratings emitidos pelas três principais agências (Moody's, Standard & Poors e Fitch). Entretanto, o indicador de maior poder explicativo não foi o nível absoluto de reservas, mas a razão entre dívida pública externa líquida e PIB. Outras variáveis de destacada importância na maioria dos modelos foram o percentual da dívida interna de curto prazo, investimento estrangeiro direto/PIB e inflação. Variáveis tradicionalmente utilizadas como indicadores de liquidez, como razão reservas/importações e conta corrente/PIB, não foram significativas na maioria dos modelos. Os resultados confirmam os indícios contidos no discurso das agências de rating, quanto à importância das reservas internacionais em sua avaliação, embora alertando que outras variáveis, como perfil de endividamento do governo e perspectivas de crescimento, são também fundamentais. O segundo estudo de caso encontrou relação significativa entre as reservas internacionais e o spread soberano, através de modelos de correção de erros. O efeito estimado do rating soberano foi não-significativo ou pouco explicativo, comparado aos fundamentos, provavelmente devido à volatilidade do spread soberano em resposta a variações nas condições do mercado, ao contrário do rating. O melhor modelo obtido utilizou o nível absoluto de reservas, evidenciando também efeitos significativos da aversão global ao risco, taxas de juros internacionais e crises políticas internas. Os resultados desse estudo indicam custo marginal decrescente das reservas internacionais e a necessidade de considerá-lo endógeno em modelos de minimização de custos para determinação do nível ótimo de reservas. O terceiro estudo implementou a metodologia de Liquidity-at-Risk sugerida por Greenspan (1999) para avaliar a adequação do nível de reservas internacionais para a manutenção da liquidez externa. Para a medida de liquidez reservas/dívida externa de curto prazo (razão de Guidotti), estimou-se que o nível de reservas internacionais mantidas pelo Brasil em jun/2008 (US$200 bilhões) era aproximadamente o dobro do necessário para garantir uma razão de Guidotti superior a 1, com 99% de probabilidade, durante 24, 36 ou 48 meses. Em diversos cenários alternativos de percentual das dívidas externa e interna de curto prazo, meta de superávit primário, índice de aversão ao risco e taxas de juros externas, as reservas iniciais necessárias situaram-se em US$85-105 bilhões. A análise de custos revela que o aumento das reservas diminui os juros médios da dívida, embora efeito maior pudesse ser alcançado através do aumento do superávit primário. As evidências sugerem que a motivação das autoridades brasileiras para a manutenção de reservas em torno de US$200 bilhões não é puramente precaucionária, admitindo as hipóteses de ganho de credibilidade e flexibilidade para a execução da política fiscal.This thesis developed three case studies on the Brazilian international reserves, using various econometric techniques in order to determine the influence of absolute and relative measures of reserves over both the sovereign credit rating and the sovereign spread, as well as to assess the adequate reserves level to ensure external liquidity. Analyses were carried out on monthly data from Jan/2000 to Jun/2008. The first case study found significant effects of different reserves measures in explaining the sovereign credit rating, by fitting ordered logit models to the average of the ratings issued by the three main agencies (Moody's, Standard & Poors and Fitch) for the Brazilian long term external debt. However, the best explaining variable was not the absolute level of reserves, but the ratio "net public external debt/GDP" instead. It was noteworthy the significance of the following variables in most of the models tested: short term internal debt (%), foreign direct investment/GDP and inflation. Variables traditionally used as external liquidity measures, like reserves/imports and current account/GDP, are not statistically significant in most of the models fitted in this study. Results support the evidence found in the rating agencies' reports, as to the importance of international reserves in their credit quality assessment, although pointing to other variables, like government debt profile and growth perspectives, as equally critical. The second case study found significant relationship between the Brazilian international reserves and its sovereign spread, using error correction models. The estimated effect of sovereign rating was either non-significant, or poorly explanatory when compared to macroeconomic fundamentals, probably due to the volatility of sovereign spread in response to changes in market conditions, unlike the sovereign rating. The best model obtained included the absolute level of reserves, showing also significant effect of the global risk aversion, external interest rates and internal political crises. The results of this study point to a decreasing marginal cost of international reserves and the need of considering it as endogenous in optimal reserves models based in cost minimization. Finally, the third case study implemented the Liquidity-at-Risk methodology suggested by Greenspan (1999), in order to assess the Brazilian reserves level adequacy in maintaining external liquidity. For the liquidity measure adopted - the ratio "reserves/short term external debt" (Guidotti's ratio) - it was found that the Brazilian reserves level held in Jun/2008 (US$200 billion) was roughly twice the necessary one to ensure a Guidotti's ratio above 1, with 99% probability, within 24, 36 or 48 months. In several alternative scenarios varying the short term external debt, short term internal debt, primary surplus, global risk aversion and external interest rates, the required initial reserves was in the range US$85-105 billion. An analysis of alternative policies' costs revealed the expected effect of higher reserves in decreasing the average debt service, although a dramatically higher impact would be obtained by an increase in primary surplus. Evidence suggest that the Brazilian authorities motivation for holding international reserves as high as US$200 billion may not be purely precautionary, pointing to the hypotheses of credibility gains and fiscal flexibility issues.