Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Financial circumstances"

It is necessary to analyze the relationship between financial inclusion and circumstances-monetary policy and economic fundamentals, which has a practical reference value for policy makers. This paper studies the impact of the circumstances on financial inclusion factors by using a vector autoregressive method. Empirical results show that monetary policy has a short-term positive impact on financial inclusion factors, while the economic fundamental has the opposite, which means that the positive monetary policy promote the development of financial inclusion in the short term and the sudden change of the economic situation will make it harder. Based on the data of the World Bank and the situation of China, we make an analysis and comparison of the empirical results, and draw two implications: first, the sustainable development of financial inclusion needs a suitable circumstance; second, the appropriate coordination and mutual facilitation of economic fundamentals and finance is conducive to the sustainable development of financial inclusion.

This article analyses the impact of external factors on niche evolution and, in particular, the change from a technical niche into a socio-technical niche. When we review the literature on niche evolution, we find that discussions on the impact of external factors on niche evolution are not clear, particularly, on new financial sponsors’ expectations. Therefore, this paper attempts to answer the following research question: Do changes in public financial resources contribute to transforming a technical niche into a socio-technical niche? We analysed an agricultural innovation niche case based on Butiá Native Fruits (e.g. Butiá odorata and others species), developed mainly by Temperate Climate Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA) to understand whether and how external factors might contribute to an evolution of a niche. We found that new financial sponsors’ expectations can cause an important change in the evolution of a niche. Before the existence of a new external finance sponsor, the technical network niche was composed of research organisations and researchers working on isolated projects. However, after a new external finance sponsor was found, the network or organisations moved into experimental activities, upscaling, and outscaling, and began to incorporate multilevel organisations and people. Consequently, a more complex, coordinated organisation was created that incorporated social co-production, democracy, and participation, and the niche progressed towards a socio-technical niche.

In the text of this scientific research we pointed out the natural correlation between the phenomenon of undertaking manipulative actions on financial and accounting reports by corporations, in circumstances of intensification, acceleration, as well as multiplication of fiscal pressure by the representatives of the management at the macroeconomic level. Also, with explications and scientific conclusions, we pointed out the destabilizing moments of consistent implementation of the principles of corporate governance, particularly in the circumstances of actual resorting to the use of different techniques of financial malversations by corporations or microeconomic entities as well as by individual households, because, in the etymological sense, they are also accepted as microeconomic subjects. At the same time, with the technique of optical laser guidance, we marked economic barriers and in the constellation of the subject matter without tendentious finger-pointing at individuals. Exclusively, using the technique of criticizing the contaminated state, the detection of neuralgic points of inhibition of optimal economic flows was performed, analysed through the prism of the need to respect the principles of corporate management.

Recently, FinTech (financial technology) and related services have improved greatly. Along with this trend, AI (artificial intelligence) has received a lot of attention as well. Financial institutions have been introducing FinTech and AI for improving efficiency and the quality of services. The aim of this study is to investigate the deterministic elements of promoting financial services. Focusing on two elements, 1) human skills and 2) social circumstances, empirical analyses are conducted to examine the deterministic elements. The empirical results show that finance skill and digital technological skill are both deterministic elements of financial services. Additionally, population growth, finance and banking regulation, and development and application of technology are also deterministic elements. However, whether the population over 65 years is a deterministic elements or not is not clear. To promote the quality of financial services, not only are human skills important, but social circumstances are also important. To make the circumstances clear is inevitable to promote financial services and to improve efficiency. Making these elements a reality, people will be able to enjoy high quality financial services.

The relationship between financial constraints and depressive symptomatology among adults aged 50 and greater was examined. The mediating effect of perceived control over one’s financial circumstances on this relationship was assessed. Ordinary least square hierarchical regression models were estimated using data from the Health and Retirement Study. As an aggregated measure, financial constraints were positively associated with depression in mid-age and late life, and this relationship was partially accounted for by the pathway of perceived control over one’s financial circumstances. When disaggregated as a measure, financial constraints at the individual level had a significant effect on depression, while financial constraints at the family and public levels did not have a significant effect. When added to the model, perceived control over one’s financial circumstances had a significant effect on depressive symptomatology, financial constraints remained significant at the individual level.

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In Pakistan, competitive forms of procurement include only two-step sealed bidding. In the United States, negotiated procurement falls under competitive forms of procurement. Pakistan established the Pakistan Procurement Regulatory Authority (PPRA) in 2002 on the recommendations of the World Bank and enacted PPRA rules in 2004 based on the 1994 UNCITRAL model procurement law. The purpose of PPRA rules in 2004 was twofold: First, it implemented uniform procurement regime in all federal and provincial procurement agencies. Second, it enhanced transparency and capacity of the procurement system. Since the enactment of PPRA rules in 2004, the model UNCITRAL was amended in 2011. The amended 2011 UNCITRAL law also allows negotiations, such as the competitive form of procurement. The authors evaluate the Pakistan procurement system UNCITRAL model law and the U.S. acquisition system with an intention to find viable circumstances under which negotiated procurement can be initiated in Pakistan. The authors use the analogous Yoder’s Three Integrated Pillars of Success (TIPS) and find room for improvements in three pillars of Pakistan procurement: personnel, platforms, and protocols. The authors recommend that negotiated procurement be implemented in Pakistan, provided that the three pillars of procurement system are strengthened, along with the broadening of the accountability loop.

This study draws on in-depth semi-structured interviews with seventeen partnered mothers in Newcastle upon Tyne. All the study households contained a full time wage earner and had an income between 60 and 85% of the national median household income. The aims of the study were: 1) to establish how interviewees managed life on a limited income, both financially and emotionally 2) to investigate how this was connected to sources of household income, negotiations with their partner, and personal beliefs about money and gender 3) to discover how these women experienced and understood their own material deprivation and their role as household financial managers. Previous studies of intra-household income have looked at the whole population or those on benefit, but mothers in this income bracket had never been studied before. Moreover, after a decade of tax credit reform and women-into-work policies significant changes in the financial circumstances of this group of households seemed likely. An approach which placed the lived experience of the interviewees at the centre of the study was taken, rooted in the feminist qualitative tradition. A new method for revealing the material deprivation of individual household members was also pioneered. The key finding is that women in this income group were likely to be materially poor, although living in households officially defined as ‘not poor’, and the way they related to their money is similar to poor women in previous studies. This resulted both from the general inadequacy of household incomes and from the way resources were distributed within the household, with women often at the bottom of the spending hierarchy. Contrary to the findings of most previous studies, women did not ‘tag’ certain streams of household income, such as reserving Child Benefit for children; instead they ensured children were protected from material deprivation by their own sacrifices, sacrifices not always shared with their male partner. The lower the household income, the more likely this was to happen. Other findings include widespread desire to undertake paid work if it fitted around caring responsibilities, a marked decline in the proportion of household income from male earnings, a strong tendency for the mother to be the sole manager of household finances and therefore the carrier of resulting stress, and a powerful discourse that men could not be trusted with money which further increased women’s burden of worry. The women interviewed had a high level of financial skill, demonstrating many strategies to make money stretch further, but usually resources were simply inadequate to meet all household needs. Policy recommendations recognise the vital importance of tax credits and argue for increasing household incomes through supporting good quality paid work that fits with caring responsibilities. It is argued that better measurement of intra-household income distribution is also needed. The cultural issues underpinning the unequal burden of self-sacrifice within families are harder to tackle, but some suggestions are made.

Magistro darbo tema – Sutarties pakeitimo dėl iš esmės pasikeitusių sutarties vykdymo apinkybių galimybės ir Lietuvos teismų praktika. Darbe analizuojamos galimybės pateisinti sutarties nevykdymą dėl pasikeitusių aplinkybių įtakos remiantis skirtingose teisės sistemose įtvirtintu reglamentavimu. Tyrime analizei pasirinktos tų valstybių nacionalinės teisės sistemos, kuriose įtvirtintas reglamentavimo modelis buvo pavyzdžiu kitoms valstybėms. Darbe analizuojamos Prancūzijos, Vokietijos, Anglijos ir Jungtinių Amerikos Valstijų teisėje įtvirtintos sutarties vykdymo pasikeitus aplinkybėms instituto reglamentavimo variacijos. Taip pat darbe analizuojami skirtinguose tarptautiniuose teisės aktuose įtvirtinti pasikeitusių aplinkybių instituto reglamentavimo modeliai, analizei buvo pasirinkti šie tarptautiniai teisės aktai: Vienos konvencija Dėl tarptautinių sutarčių teisės, UNIDROIT Tarptautinių komercinių sutarčių principai, Europos sutarčių teisės principai ir Jungtinių tautų konvencija Dėl tarptautinio prekių pirkimo – pardavimo sutarčių. Ketvirtąjame darbo skyriuje yra analizuojamos sutarties vykdymo pasikeitus aplikybėms instituto taikymo sąlygos, atskleidžiamas jų turinys ir išskiriami reikalavimų tenkinimo vertinimo kriterijai. Prieinama išvados, kad esminiu gali būti pripažintas tik toks sutarties vykdymo suvaržymas, kuris ne tik iš esmės padidina sutarties įvykdymo kainą arba sumažina gaunamą įvykdymą, bet ir itin komplikuoja suvaržymą patiriančios šalies galimybes toliau... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
Thesis of the paper – Probability to adjust the contract terms regarding to changed circumstances and the analysis of Lithuanian courts practice. The paper analyzes the justification for the failure to perform on the basis of changed circumstances. The study selected for analysis the national legal systems, which maintained regulatory model has been followed by other countries. The paper examines French, German, British and United States law of contract and the variety of regulatory variations regarding changed circumstances. It also analyzes the regulatory models of hardship established in different international legal instruments. For the analysis were selected following international instruments: the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, the UNIDROIT Principles of International Commercial Contracts, the Principles of European Contract Law and United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods. The fourth chapter analyzes the requirements for the situation in order to claim hardship. This chapter revealed the content of requirements and identifies the assessment criteria for declaring the fulfilment of the conditions. Analysis leads to the conclusion, that the substantial restriction of the contract can be recognized only in cases, which not only substantially increases the price of the performance or reduce the resulting performance, but also substantially complicates and burdens the possibilities of affected contractor to continue performing... [to full text]

Food systems are facing increasing pressure to adapt to the local, regional and global implications of the climate crisis while reducing the environmental impacts of food production and retaining their competitiveness on increasingly connected agri-food markets. Many suggested aspects of a more resilient, sustainable model of food production are directly linked to decisions made on individual farms. However, there are known social-ecological traps that limit farmers’ capacity to break away from unsustainable paths. This thesis investigates the impact of trap dynamics on the incidence of sustainability transitions on Finnish farms – for example, transitions from animal to plant agriculture, or from monoculture to crop diversity. I use national tax records and interviews with regenerative farmers to identify patterns and circumstances that preclude farmers’ ability to carry out sustainability transitions, and to describe strategies used by regenerative farmers to enhance their agency and avert traps. My findings indicate that rigid governance and market structures, an increasing burden of debt and intensifying ecological pressures converge to create, sustain and exacerbate social-ecological traps. Finally, this thesis suggests that the existence of farm-level traps may hamper attempts to address food system lock- ins across scales, diminishing the system’s capacity to respond to shocks and changing circumstances.

Based on identified factors, non-traditional collateral secured loans can be viable to low income borrowers in developing markets. By being innovative and adjusting the typical banking business model, these loans can provide funding to people who otherwise would not have been able to get funding through the formalised banking system. A large number of individuals, at the bottom of the pyramid in developing countries, do not have access to property rights (property is usually used as collateral in secured loans). The purpose of this study is to determine if non-traditional collateral secured loans can be provided to individuals, SME’s and entrepreneurs at the bottom of the pyramid in developing markets. A qualitative study was conducted from interviews with Heads of Credit, Chief Risk Officers and Secured Lending Heads in financial institutions that provide secured lending offerings in developing markets. The study indicates that specific behavioural trends are associated with secured loan repayments that indicate favourable for lending institutions. Economies of scale in collateral evaluation and monitoring, is a critical factor to this lending approach to enable cost reduction. Being entrenched in the market and pro-active management in a market where very little infrastructure exist is a key factor to success.
Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2014.
lmgibs2015
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
Unrestricted

碩士
元智大學
管理研究所
97
The thesis analyzed how the TFT-LCD case company can survive from the global financial crisis in Year 2008. The thesis started with analyzing the reasons that caused the global financial crisis and lashed serious impact to TFT-LCD industry; followed by studied on the current TFT-LCD industry global competitive situation. We next studied on a case company to examine what criterion should be considered when facing the global financial crisis and the competitive strategies they chosen which successfully lead the case company pass through it. We finally tried to summarize some key success factors and strategies to see how these factors and strategies had their effects upon the improvement of the business performance and hope the analysis can provide some valuable reference to TFT-LCD companies in the future.

AbstractHydroponics is a method to grow crops without soil, and as such, these systems are added to aquaculture components to create aquaponics systems. Thus, together with the recirculating aquaculture system (RAS), hydroponic production forms a key part of the aqua-agricultural system of aquaponics. Many different existing hydroponic technologies can be applied when designing aquaponics systems. This depends on the environmental and financial circumstances, the type of crop that is cultivated and the available space. This chapter provides an overview of different hydroponic types, including substrates, nutrients and nutrient solutions, and disinfection methods of the recirculating nutrient solutions.

Money laundering is a complex phenomenon that represents the direct impact of organized criminal groups on legal financial flows. As a particularly dangerous dimension of illegal activities, the author emphasizes the possibility of masking them through the investment of illegally acquired funds in legal public or private affairs. The author analyzes the structure of this illegal activity, showing its adaptation to modern communication conditions, which is why he notices the importance of evolving this illegal phenomenon in the online environment. The predominant part of this paper is dedicated to the introduction of numerous ways of placing criminal profit in the regular monetary market through the information and communication benefits of the Internet. In his research, the author does not stay within the framework of the visible part of the web. His special attention is focused on the high-tech circumstances and communication capacities of the dark web, in order to emphasize the inexhaustible possibilities of hiding, "laundering" and further placing "laundered" money that originates from criminal activities.

Healthcare interventions are concern of government policies, health service providers, civil society organizations and public. These interventions are mainly criticized with respect to their cost effectiveness. However, economic, social and health benefits of drug addiction rehabilitation services are not well understood and they remain relatively subsidized in comparison to other aspects of healthcare interventions. But, notwithstanding this, drug addiction rehabilitation services are generally financed with public funds in Turkey as like many other countries and this situation become subject to questioning when fiscal policies and cost effectiveness of these services are considered. Based on this circumstances there is a great need for scientifically sound and practical financial and economic evaluation of substance abuse treatment services. In Turkey, recent legislative developments on substance abuse treatment services provide a baseline for structural evaluation of financial and economic feasibility of these services. In spite of ongoing methodological and empirical developments in economic evaluation of the primary health services, similar studies regarding addiction treatments are very rare in the literature. Correspondingly, methodological guidelines in this area are also very limited. This study addresses these gaps by presenting a financial and economic evaluation of drug addiction rehabilitation services in Turkey considering urgent need of intervention in this area. Evaluation of these services is based on the basic requirements of a drug addiction rehabilitation center, which is determined by the related legislation in Turkey, and the evaluation was conducted according to the methodological principles presented by EMCDDA, European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addictions.

Constantly changing labour market poses new challenges for transport management specialists. Employers require specialists characterised not only by their professional knowledge, but also capable of adapting to changing circumstances, making individual decisions, creating value added. Successful integration into labour market not only depends on external factors, such as state policies, but also on internal factors as social, personal and information competence. The conducted research enabled to assess attitudes of transport management graduates towards knowledge and competencies acquired during study process, preparedness for labour market. Research participants’ attitudes enabled to distinguish the most important skills and general competencies. Research have shown that graduates most often face the shortage of practical training, financial knowledge and poor ability to develop business plans.

Under COVID-19, the world is facing unclear circumstances as a result of the global political, economic, social and financial recession caused by the pandemic. The overpopulation of certain regions as a result of globalization leads to problems related to the nutrition of the population and food security. The Black Sea region, with its strategic location, is an essential market both for the production and for the supply of raw materials to the regions affected by poverty and also for the international grain trade and in particular for the wheat. The report presents the main trends in the wheat market within the Black Sea region and argues the problems and challenges, which the grain trade is facing after the beginning of the COVID- 19 pandemic.

The article describes the work of the Irkutsk branch of the Russian-Chinese Bank from the moment of its formation to the further reorganization (1898–1910). The financial performance indicators of credit institution in the period from 1901 till 1907, as reflected in the inspection in November, 1908, are given. Examines the reasons for loss of the branch related to the General decline of the business sector of the regional economy. The article notes the moment when the Bank branch management changed. The article describes the prospects for the development of the Department in connection with the course taken for lending to coal-producing enterprises of the Irkutsk province. Some quantitative calculations are given that demonstrate the possibility of growth of financial indicators of the institution. The article records the concern of competing credit institutions about the development of the local branch of the Russian-Chinese Bank. In conclusion, the circumstances that hindered the prospects for the development of the Department, in connection with the event held in 1910, are given. Russian-Chinese and Northern banks merge, resulting in the formation of a new credit institution-the Russian-Asian Bank.

The coronavirus pandemic is pushing large number of firms towards insolvency by dramatically changing consumption patterns and business operations. The first wave of liquidity-focused policy responses (Act on Intervention Measures in Enforcement and Insolvency Proceedings for Duration of Special Circumstances) prevented or delayed more severe consequences for the corporate sector. While some liquidity support is still needed, the crucial issue that must be tackled now is that of corporate solvency. This paper addresses the role of the Financial Agency (hereinafter: FINA), which, as a legal entity with public authority, has (in)appropriate legal authority in bankruptcy proceedings over the rights of entities. As in the previous paper, a multidisciplinary scientific approach is advocated, which should contribute to the consideration of various aspects of the relationship between FINA, the state, the judiciary and the current tendency of Dejudicijalization.

When freedom from Communism largely eliminated overt government censorship of newspapers, other political and business pressures appeared. Consequently, Southeastern European newspaper publishers faced threats to financial viability and editorial integrity. The editor-in-chief of one newspaper in the former Yugoslavian republic of Slovenia claims to have found freedom from political and advertiser influence after a global media conglomerate invested in the publication. Notably, the business daily Finance is the only hard-news start-up to survive in the eleven years since Slovenia gained independence from the Republic of Yugoslavia. This research paper offers a provocative example where international investment appears to have contributed to the democratizing of media in a post-communist society. The paper is not intended to argue that foreign media investments are necessarily beneficial but to suggest some circumstances in which foreign media investment can be advantageous to the democratic aspirations of a society.

The aim of the article was to characterize the aspects of social and economic conditions and circumstances for the establishment and operation of groups of agricultural producers in Poland. The discussion is theoretical. In the article the monographic method was used. The following issues were subsequently examined: the nature and status of groups of producers in Poland, the social capital of farmers, advantages and obstacles in the cooperation of agricultural farmers and financial aid opportunities under the Rural Development Programmes for 2007–2013 and 2014–2020. As the example, the model of agricultural producer groups functioning in Poland was described. The results of the consideration has broad spectrum. It follows from the analysis conducted that the reasons for creating groups of producers are economic benefits related to production on a higher scale and to achievement of synergies through acting together. They also include EU financial aid opportunities. The benefits are also of a social character and are related, among others, to farmers learning how to act together as well as to increased trust in cooperation. In spite of numerous benefits that may arise from acting together, there are also certain obstacles related to the level of knowledge or educational background of farmers, typical responses to change or lack of trust between organisation members. This is often an effect of negative past experiences connected with overall socialisation that affects post-communist nations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The purpose of this study was to provide evidence-based advice on the status and future role of the Humanities in South Africa to government and other stakeholders (such as science councils, the department of education, universities) as a contribution towards improving the human condition. Everywhere, the Humanities is judged by many to be in “crisis.” The reasons for this, in South Africa, include the governmental emphasis on science and technology; the political emphasis on the economically-grounded idea of “developmentalism;” the shift of values among youth (and their parents) towards practical employment and financial gain; and the argument that the challenges faced by our society are so urgent and immediate that the reflective and critical modes of thinking favoured in the Humanities seem to be unaffordable luxuries. The Report provides invaluable detail about the challenges and opportunities associated with tapping the many pools of excellence that exist in the country. It should be used as a guideline for policymakers to do something concrete to improve the circumstances faced by the Humanities, not only in South Africa but also around the world. Amongst other recommendations, the Report calls for the establishment of a Council for the Humanities to advise government on how to improve the status and standing of the Humanities in South Africa. It also calls for initiation, through the leadership of the Department of Basic Education, considered measures to boost knowledge of and positive choices for the Humanities throughout the twelve years of schooling, including progressive ways of privileging the Arts, History and Languages in the school curriculum through Grade 12.