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1
Punt, Cecilia. "Modelling multi-product industries in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/79959.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (PhD (Agric))--Stellenbosch University, 2013.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is common practice in computable general equilibrium (CGE) models that the output composition of multi-product industries remains constant despite changes in relative prices of products. The results of any scenario will show that products produced by a single industry will still be produced in the same ratio to each other as reflected by the base data. The objective of the study was to develop a CGE model for South Africa in which this assumption of fixed composition of output can be selectively relaxed. In order to allow industries to adjust their output composition in response to changes in relative prices of products a Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) function and the related first order condition were incorporated into an existing CGE model. This alternative specification of an output transformation function in the model enables the modeller to allow selected multi-product industries to increase production of products that show greater price increases relative to other products. The first order condition of the CET function determines the optimal combination of products for each industry. With the inclusion of the CET function there is a trade-off between theoretical rigour of the model and realism of the results, therefore an assumption of input-output separability was introduced as a way of recognising that the inclusion of a CET function violates the assumption that prices in the same row of a social accounting matrix (SAM) are equivalent. The model was calibrated with a SAM for South Africa for 2007 that was developed for purposes of this study. Set controls were included in the model to generalise the model in order that it can be calibrated with data from other countries as well. The SAM for South Africa contains provincial level information in the accounts for agriculture, labour and households. The agricultural industries are defined by geographical area, hence these industries are particularly good examples of multi-product industries that respond to relative price changes when determining production levels of individual products. The adjusted CGE model was used to analyse four scenarios focusing on selected issues mentioned in the National Development Plan for South Africa released by the National Planning Commission in 2011. The scenarios relate to increases in fruit exports as a result of global positioning, technical efficiency improvements for the agricultural sector through continued research and development, factor productivity growth in government and selected services sectors resulting from fighting corruption and curbing strikes, and augmenting the supply of skilled labour through an improvement in the quality of education. The results of the adjusted model show the desired effect: producers produce relatively more of the products for which they can get a relatively higher price and vice versa. This holds true regardless of whether the level of industry output increases or decreases. The impact of the model adjustment and the effects of changes in the levels of elasticities and choice of variables to close the model were analysed as part of the sensitivity analyses. The impact of changes in the functional form, elasticities and model closures on results, are different for each scenario.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is erkende praktyk in berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodelle dat die verhoudings waarin produkte tot mekaar geproduseer word deur multi-produk industrieë konstant gehou word, ongeag veranderings in relatiewe pryse van produkte. Die resultate van enige senario sal dus aandui dat die produkte wat deur 'n enkele industrie geproduseer word steeds in dieselfde verhouding tot mekaar geproduseer sal word, soos weerspieël in die basis data. Die doel van die studie was om 'n berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel vir Suid-Afrika te ontwikkel wat die aanname dat die samestelling van elke industrie se uitset onveranderbaar is, selektief kan verslap. Om toe te laat dat industrieë die samestelling van uitset kan aanpas namate die relatiewe pryse van produkte verander, is 'n Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie en die gepaardgaande eerste orde voorwaarde in 'n bestaande berekenbare algemene ewewigsmodel ingesluit. Die eerste orde voorwaarde bepaal die optimale verhoudings waarin produkte geproduseer moet word. Met die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word teoretiese korrektheid van die model ingeboet in ruil vir meer realistiese resultate, dus is die aanname van inset-uitset onafhanklikheid gemaak en daardeur word ook erken dat as gevolg van die insluiting van die Konstante Elastisiteit van Transformasie funksie word daar nie meer voldoen aan die aanname data alle pryse in dieselfde ry van die sosiale rekeninge matriks (SRM) aan mekaar gelyk is nie. Die model is gekalibreer met 'n SRM vir Suid-Afrika vir 2007 wat vir doeleindes van die studie ontwikkel is. Deur die insluiting van kontroles vir versamelings is die model veralgemeen sodat die model ook met data van ander lande gekalibreer kan word. Die SRM vir Suid-Afrika se rekeninge vir landbou, arbeid en huishoudings bevat inligting op provinsiale vlak. Die landbou industrieë is volgens geografiese gebiede afgebaken en is dus besonder goeie voorbeelde van multi-produk industrieë wat reageer op relatiewe prys veranderings wanneer die produksievlakke van afsonderlike produkte bepaal word. Die aangepaste algemene ewewigsmodel is gebruik om vier senarios te ondersoek wat fokus op geselekteerde onderwerpe vervat in die Nasionale Ontwikkelingsplan wat deur die Nasionale Beplanningskommissie van Suid Afrika in 2011 vrygestel is. Die senarios hou verband met 'n styging in vrugte uitvoere as gevolg van globale posisionering, tegniese produktiwiteitsverhogings vir die landbousektor deur volgehoue navorsing en ontwikkeling, verhoging in die produktiwiteit van produksiefaktore van die regering en geselekteerde dienste sektore deur die aanspreek van korrupsie en vermindering in stakings, en die toename in geskoolde arbeid deur 'n verbetering in die kwaliteit van onderwys. Resultate van die aangepaste model toon die gewenste uitwerking: produsente produseer relatief meer van die produkte waarvoor hulle 'n relatiewe hoër prys kan kry, en omgekeerd. Dit geld ongeag of daar 'n verhoging of 'n verlaging in die vlak van die industrie se uitset is. Die impak van die modelaanpassing, die effek van veranderings in die vlakke van elastisiteite en die keuse van veranderlikes om die model te sluit, is geanaliseer as deel van die sensitiwiteitsanalises. Die impak van veranderings in die funksionele vorm, elastisiteite en modelsluiting op resultate, is verskillend vir elke senario.
2
Naranpanawa, Athula Kithsiri Bandara, and n/a. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case." Griffith University. Griffith Business School, 2005. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20070130.165943.
Full textAbstract:
Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.
3
Naranpanawa, Athula. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model: The Sri Lankan Case." Thesis, Griffith University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366815.
Full textAbstract:
Many trade and development economists, policy makers and policy analysts around the world believe that globalisation promotes growth and reduces poverty. There exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on how trade liberalisation helps to promote growth and reduce poverty. However, critics of globalisation argue that, in developing countries, integration into the world economy makes the poor poorer and the rich richer. The most common criticism of globalisation is that it increases poverty and inequality. Much of the research related to the link between openness, growth and poverty has been based on cross-country regressions. Dollar and Kraay (2000; 2001), using regression analysis, argue that growth is pro poor. Moreover, their study suggests that growth does not affect distribution and poor as well as rich could benefit from it. Later, they demonstrate that openness to international trade stimulates rapid growth, thus linking trade liberalisation with improvements in wellbeing of the poor. Several other cross-country studies demonstrate a positive relationship between trade openness and economic growth (see for example Dollar, 1992; Sach and Warner, 1995 and Edward, 1998). In contrast, Rodriguez and Rodrik (2001) question the measurements related to trade openness in economic models, and suggest that generalisations cannot be made regarding the relationship between trade openness and growth. Several other studies also criticise the pro poor growth argument based upon the claim of weak econometrics and place more focus on the distributional aspect (see, for example, Rodrik, 2000). Ultimately, openness and growth have therefore become an empirical matter, and so has the relationship between trade and poverty. These weaknesses of cross-country studies have led to a need to provide evidence from case studies. Systematic case studies related to individual countries will at least complement cross-country studies such as that of Dollar and Kraay. As Chen and Ravallion (2004, p.30) argue, 'aggregate inequality or poverty may not change with trade reform even though there are gainers and losers at all levels of living'. They further argue that policy analysis which simply averages across diversities may miss important matters that are critical to the policy debate. In this study, Sri Lanka is used as a case study and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is adopted as an analytical framework. Sri Lanka was selected as an interesting case in point to investigate this linkage for the following reasons: although Sri Lanka was the first country in the South Asian region to liberalise its trade substantially in the late seventies, it still experiences an incidence of poverty of a sizeable proportion that cannot be totally attributed to the long-standing civil conflict. Moreover, trade poverty linkage within the Sri Lankan context has hardly received any attention, while multi-sectoral general equilibrium poverty analysis within the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) based CGE model has never been attempted. In order to examine the link between globalisation and poverty, a poverty focussed CGE model for the Sri Lankan economy has been developed in this study. As a requirement for the development of such a model, a SAM of the Sri Lankan economy for the year 1995 has been constructed. Moreover, in order to estimate the intra group income distribution in addition to the inter group income distribution, income distribution functional forms for different household groups have been empirically estimated and linked to the CGE model in 'top down' mode: this will compute a wide range of household level poverty and inequality measurements. This is a significant departure from the traditional representative agent hypothesis used to specifying household income distributions. Furthermore, as the general equilibrium framework permits endogenised prices, an attempt was made to endogenise the change in money metric poverty line within the CGE model. Finally, a set of simulation experiments was conducted to identify the impacts of trade liberalisation in manufacturing and agricultural industries on absolute and relative poverty at household level. The results show that, in the short run, trade liberalisation of manufacturing industries increases economic growth and reduces absolute poverty in low-income household groups. However, it is observed that the potential benefits accruing to the rural low-income group are relatively low compared to other two low-income groups. Reduction in the flow of government transfers to households following the loss of tariff revenue may be blamed for this trend. In contrast, long run results indicate that trade liberalisation reduces absolute poverty in substantial proportion in all groups. It further reveals that, in the long run, liberalisation of the manufacturing industries is more pro poor than that of the agricultural industries. Overall simulation results suggest that trade reforms may widen the income gap between the rich and the poor, thus promoting relative poverty. This may warrant active interventions with respect to poverty alleviation activities following trade policy reforms.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
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Gounder, Neelesh. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Fiji: A Computable General Equilibrium - Microsimulation Analysis." Thesis, Griffith University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367969.
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The aim of this thesis is to examine whether trade liberalization, in terms of complete tariff reductions, will contribute to poverty reduction in Fiji. Whilst poverty reduction is the ultimate goal of trade reforms, and if trade liberalization does promote growth, then will the poor benefit from this trade liberalization? Previous studies on trade liberalization on Fiji are based on partial equilibrium as well as general equilibrium analysis. These studies have shown that trade liberalization will have positive impacts on the Fijian economy. Trade liberalization is unlikely to produce equivalent results of its impact on poverty across households and regions. Thus even within a country or geographic regions, households and individuals are likely to be differently impacted. However, none of the existing studies focus on the impact of trade liberalization on poverty at the household level. This, according to my knowledge, is thus the first study using a computable general equilibrium combined with a microsimulation approach for analysing the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in Fiji. This research will therefore further our understanding of the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in a small island developing country. It will also fill the gap in the literature on Fiji which lacks the impact of macroeconomic policies such as the impact of trade liberalization on poverty.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
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Fernando, G. W. J. Sriyantha. "Tourism in Sri Lanka and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Effects of Post-War Tourism Boom." Thesis, Griffith University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366944.
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The main objective of this study is two-fold. First, it aims to undertake a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the performance of the Sri Lankan tourism sector using historical data and policy documents and to present a historical narrative on tourism. Second, it aims to analyse the effects of the post-war tourism boom on the Sri Lankan economy within an economy-wide framework by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, labelled as SLCGE-Tourism. In the process of achieving the above objectives the study addressed two knowledge gaps related to Sri Lankan tourism as identified in the literature.
The first knowledge gap is that there is a lack of systematic historical analysis of Sri Lankan tourism both in terms of policy and data. This study contributes significantly in addressing this knowledge gap by undertaking a number of complementary analyses. Firstly, it undertakes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of post-independence tourism promotion strategies in the economic development process. It shows that Sri Lanka had many post-independence advantages, especially given its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and on the major air and sea routes between Europe and the Far East. However, it missed opportunities due to inward-oriented development policies implemented by successive governments until 1977 and the three decade long civil war and other political violence ending in 2009.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
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Gomo, Charity [Verfasser]. "Government social assistance transfers, income inequality and poverty in South Africa: a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) - Microsimulation (MS) Model / Charity Gomo." Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1077768036/34.
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Al-Hawwas, Abdullah. "Policy experiments for the Saudi's economy using a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) : oil demand and tariff liberalisation effects on the Saudi economy." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2010. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/5028d3bf-71ed-4788-b032-945fd8b002c9.
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This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for the economy of Saudi Arabia and of the possible effects of some policy measures. It further explains the mechanisms through which they affect different economic agents. Using a static CGE Model, we show the possible micro and macroeconomic effects of an exogenous shock of world oil demand and the possibility of adapting a trade liberalisation regime in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, this study comprises of two main experiments each with a number of simulations. The first experiment examines the effects of an increase in world oil demand on the Saudi economy. Due to the significant effects of closure rules on the results, this experiment implements two simulations based on an alternative closure rules, the first in which saving is flexible and investment remains fixed, the second in which investmentis flexible and saving remain fixed. The second experiment investigates the impact of tariff elimination on the Saudi economy. As a result of dropping the import tax, government revenue declines. Based on that the experiment includes three simulations:(i) Examines the effects of tariff elimination without revenue neutral policies, (ii) examines the effects of tariff elimination combined with revenue neutral policy (sales tax) and (iii) examines the effects of tariff elimination combined with income tax.Sensitivity analysis has been done to test the robustness of the model. Household welfare effects have also been measured across households using an Equivalent Variation measure (EV). The study concludes that the third simulation (iii) in the second experiment is preferred in case compensation tariff drop but the first simulation (i) in second experiment is better and use oil revenue for compensation instead.
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Hubic, Amela. "A financial CGE model for Luxembourg." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209083.
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Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.
This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:
1.\
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
9
Look, Wesley Allen. "The economics of US greenhouse gas emissions reduction policy : assessing distributional effects across households and the 50 United States using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79205.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 60-62).
The political economy of US climate policy has revolved around state- and district- level distributional economics, and to a lesser extent household-level distribution questions. Many politicians and analysts have suggested that state- and district-level climate policy costs (and their distribution) are a function of local carbon intensity and commensurate electricity price sensitivity. However, other studies have suggested that what is most important in determining costs is the means by which revenues from a price on carbon are allocated. This is one of the first studies to analyze these questions simultaneously across all 50 United States, household income classes and a timeframe that reflects most recent policy proposals (2015 - 2050). I use a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economic effects of a US "cap-and-dividend" policy, by simulating the implementation of the Carbon Limits and Energy for America's Renewal (CLEAR) Act, a bill proposed by Senators Cantwell (D-WA) and Collins (R-ME) in 2009. I find that while carbon intensity and electricity prices are indeed important in determining compliance costs in some states, they are only part of the story. My results suggest that revenue allocation mechanisms and new investment trends related to the switch to low-carbon infrastructure are more influential than incumbent carbon intensity or electricity price impacts in determining the distribution of state-level policy costs. These findings suggest that the current debate in the United States legislature over climate policy, and the constellation of both supporters and dissenters, is based upon an incomplete set of assumptions that must be revisited. Finally, please note that this study does not claim to comprehensively model the CLEAR Act,. nor does it incorporate a number of important data and assumptions, including: the latest data on natural gas resources and prices, the price effects on coal of EPA greenhouse gas and mercury regulations, the most recent trends in renewable energy pricing.
by Wesley Allen Look.
S.M.
10
Pham, Tien Duc, and n/a. "A new approach to regional modelling: an Integrated Regional Equation System (IRES)." Griffith University. School of International Business and Asian Studies, 2004. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20041022.083520.
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This thesis develops a new structure that explicitly combines two CGE models, a national and a regional, in an integrated structure that gives the thesis model the name IRES, in short for the Integrated Regional Equation System. The typical features of the integrated structure are the adding-up conditions and the two-way linkages between the national and the regional modules facilitated by the interface shifters. The adding-up conditions ensure the two modules produce consistent results and updated databases. The inclusion of the interface shifters on the one hand plays a role in ensuring compatibility of results of the two modules, i.e. no distortion occurs because technical or taste changes are transferred across modules. On the other hand, the interface shifters assist the operation of IRES in different modes: the model can be used as a top-down model, a bottom-up model or an integrated model where national and regional shocks can be introduced at the same time. Hence, IRES has more flexibility in its application than a regional model or a national model alone, as IRES can make use of availability of data at any levels in the economy. IRES has a new labour market in which regional migration is no longer the only factor that settles the labour market as in the original setting of the MMRF model. Regional unemployment and regional participation rates are modelled to response to changes in regional employment growth using elasticities estimated econometrically in this thesis. IRES implements historical patterns of regional migration so that results of regional migration are consistent with observed patterns. Altogether, regional migration, regional unemployment and participation rates determine the equilibrium of the labour market. IRES adopts new approaches to modelling margin demands and indirect taxes. These new approaches are very effective in reducing the size of IRES but they do not compromise the use of the model. These approaches are readily applicable to any other regional CGE models.
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Pham, Tien Duc. "A new approach to regional modelling: an Integrated Regional Equation System (IRES)." Thesis, Griffith University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366367.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis develops a new structure that explicitly combines two CGE models, a national and a regional, in an integrated structure that gives the thesis model the name IRES, in short for the Integrated Regional Equation System. The typical features of the integrated structure are the adding-up conditions and the two-way linkages between the national and the regional modules facilitated by the interface shifters. The adding-up conditions ensure the two modules produce consistent results and updated databases. The inclusion of the interface shifters on the one hand plays a role in ensuring compatibility of results of the two modules, i.e. no distortion occurs because technical or taste changes are transferred across modules. On the other hand, the interface shifters assist the operation of IRES in different modes: the model can be used as a top-down model, a bottom-up model or an integrated model where national and regional shocks can be introduced at the same time. Hence, IRES has more flexibility in its application than a regional model or a national model alone, as IRES can make use of availability of data at any levels in the economy. IRES has a new labour market in which regional migration is no longer the only factor that settles the labour market as in the original setting of the MMRF model. Regional unemployment and regional participation rates are modelled to response to changes in regional employment growth using elasticities estimated econometrically in this thesis. IRES implements historical patterns of regional migration so that results of regional migration are consistent with observed patterns. Altogether, regional migration, regional unemployment and participation rates determine the equilibrium of the labour market. IRES adopts new approaches to modelling margin demands and indirect taxes. These new approaches are very effective in reducing the size of IRES but they do not compromise the use of the model. These approaches are readily applicable to any other regional CGE models.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of International Business and Asian Studies
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Koronczi, Karol, and Mitsuo Ezaki. "A World Link CGE Model Applied to the Economic Reform in the Slovak Republic and EU Enlargement." Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/7496.
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DELPIAZZO, ELISA. "La partecipazione del Mozambico al SADC. Un processo di liberalizzazione attraverso diversi modelli e diverse chiusure." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/1109.
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La scelta del modeller riguardo alla chiusura del modello CGE influenza i suoi risultati finali e le sue prescrizioni di policy. In questa tesi, lo scopo è l’analisi e l’identificazione del problema, sia attraverso una discussione teorica che un’ applicazione pratica.
Dall’articolo del 1963 di Amartya Sen in poi, la letteratura ha presentato vari articoli
sull’argomento. Attualmente, il problema delle chiusure del modello non appare più centrale nel dibattito. Dopo una breve introduzione su cosa siano i CGE, il loro sviluppo e la loro struttura, è presentata una serie di esemplificative maquette con lo scopo di introdurre al concetto di chiusura, come essa influenzi i risultati e come questa scelta del modeller sia intimamente connessa ai fondamenti macroeconomici del sistema. Dopo la teoria, ci si sposta nel mondo reale analizzando con differenti modelli (Neoclassico, “Bastardo Keynesiano”, Strutturalista/Post- Keynesiano) e diverse chiusure per gli aggregati macroeconomici (risparmi privati, pubblici, e stranieri) l’impatto dell’accordo regionale SADC sull’economia mozambicana.
I modelli CGE per il Mozambico sono calibrati su una SAM del 2003 e sono svolti con l’ausilio di GAMS/MPSGE. I risultati dimostrano che la chiusura influenza i risultati stessi del modello per cui ognuno presenta una serie di raccomandazioni politiche per l’applicazione dell’accordo SADC.Modellers’ choice on closure rules affects a CGE model results and consequently its policy prescriptions. In this thesis, the aim is to detect and assess this issue, both through a theoretical discussion and an empirical application. Starting from Amartya Sen’s 1963 paper, literature presents many contributions on this topic. Currently, the closure rule problem is not central in the CGE debate. After a brief introduction on CGEs, their development and their structure, a series of simple maquette is presented. They have the exemplary role of introducing the concept of closures, explain how they affect final outcomes and how this modeller’s choice is strictly connected to the macroeconomic foundation of the economic system. After theory, we move into the real World analyzing through different models (Neoclassical, “Bastard Keynesian”, and Structuralist/ Post- Keynesian), and through different closure rules for macro- aggregates (private, public and foreign savings) the impact of the Regional Trade Agreement of SADC with respect to the Mozambican economy. The Mozambican CGE models are calibrated on a 2003 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and they are performed using GAMS/ MPSGE. Outcomes show that closure rules affect them and each model presents a set of policy prescription to implement the SADC agreement.
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Sudarto, Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "General equilibrium effects of an alternative social security development in Indonesia." Publisher:University of New South Wales. Economics, 2008. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/43178.
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This study investigates general equilibrium effects of an alternative social security policy in Indonesia. The study aims to analyse some financial issues of the proposed policy using a dynamic CGE model. The focus is investigating possible tax scenarios to finance the proposed policy and their impacts on the economy. The simulation results suggest that the consumption tax base should be used as the main financing method. This is because based on various simulations the selected consumption taxes have less negative impacts on the economy than the selected income taxes. Those selected consumption taxes more equitably distribute tax burden and improve income inequality in the long run. However, the increasing price because of this policy selection should also be considered seriously. The simulations also include the study of the demographic transition in Indonesia. A view that is common in the literature is that the rapid increase of labor force in the next three decades could raise the proportion of skilled workers in the labor force and enhance the economic growth. Instead the simulations suggest contrary results. When we repeat the tax/transfer simulations with the demographic transition, real GDP per capita and consumption per capita fall further below the baseline projections. Further simulations are conducted to investigate possible policy actions to mitigate the effects of this demographic transition. This study also covers possible allocation decision trade-offs surrounding the proposed social security policy. That is, the trade-offs between universal social pension insurance and universal social health insurance, and between universal tax-financed social security programs and other important development programs. Given the limitation of our study, that all stakeholders have agreed to develop a universal tax-financed social security program, we conclude that universal tax-financed social health insurance should be given more priority than universal tax-financed social pension insurance. The study concludes with some remarks regarding important areas for future research.
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Arif, Faisal. "Three Essays on the Economics of Climate Change." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/20721.
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Thesis Abstract:
Chapter I: Regional burden sharing of GHG mitigation policies – A Canadian perspective. The distribution of the burden of cost arising from the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a contentious issue in policy discussions; more so among regional jurisdictions in the federalist countries with decentralized authorities over environmental regulations. In this setting, often the policy discussions are focused on the distribution of regional emission reduction targets that, in turn, entails negotiations over the distribution of the scarcity rents and the regional transfers of wealth. The allocation of regional emission entitlements is thus a key factor that could hinder the political feasibility of a national GHG mitigation policy. In this paper, we build a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Canadian economy to assess the implications of different burden sharing rules governing the national GHG abatement policy with a cap-and-trade system of emission permits. In addition to assessing the impacts of traditional regional emissions allocation rules that involve intra-regional transfers of wealth, we consider a particular emission allocation that avoids such transfers, which may be a more palatable option given the context of likely fierce negotiations over the issue. Our results indicate to differing outcomes depending on the allocation policy in use. The CGE framework is also able to shed light on the transmission mechanisms that drive the results underlying the policy options.
Chapter II: Endogenous technological change and emission allowances. Given the imminent threat of global warming due to GHG emissions, a number of emission mitigation policies have been proposed in the literature. However, they generally suffer from the classical equity-efficiency trade-off. High costs from equity concerns often render environmental policies politically unattractive and thus hard to implement. Recent advancement in the climate policy modeling literature that incorporates endogenous technological change (ETC) into the framework can potentially bring new insights into this debate. Using an inter-temporal, multi-sector CGE approach with ETC incorporated into the framework, this paper builds a model that focuses on the equity-efficiency debate for the policymakers. Canada is chosen as the country of investigation for this purpose. The paper provides a new welfare ranking of four permit allocation policies that address the equity-efficiency trade-off. In a second-best setting with pre-existing distortions, output-based allocation (OBA) of emission permits is compared to three other policy options: (i) an emissions trading system with grandfathered allocation (GFA), (ii) an auction permit trading system where permit revenue is recycled to lower payroll taxes (RPT), and (iii) a hybrid of OBA and R&D subsidy (O-R&D). We find that adapting OBA, as well as O-R&D, is welfare improving over GFA. The implicit output subsidy, entailed in the OBA policy, mitigates against the rising cost effect in the GFA policy. This is reinforced through added investment incentive in R&D when ETC in incorporated into the framework. With O-R&D, since the R&D subsidy corrects for market imperfections in the knowledge accumulation process, the effect is further bolstered, culminating into mitigation of uneven distributional outcome for energy-intensive industries as a whole. Contrary to previous results, we also find that, in terms of the welfare metric, OBA unequivocally improves the distributional outcome across sectors as compared to the RPT policy. Inclusion of ETC also unequivocally generates a higher welfare ranking for all permit policy schemes.
Chapter III: Emission permit banking and induced technological change. This paper attempts to undertake an exploratory research by integrating two themes in the emission mitigation policy literature, which include: the inter-temporal emission permit banking and borrowing and the role of induced technological change in emission mitigation. Using a simple optimal control approach, we construct a unified framework that evaluates the optimal path of emissions and the optimal trajectory of permit price when both inter-temporal banking and borrowing of permits and the effects of induced technological change (ITC) are present. We find that ITC leads to a declining emission trajectory over time. The effect of ITC on the optimal permit price path, however, is ambiguous and critically depends on the extent of marginal cost saving that emanates from emission-saving technological innovation.
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Kyalimpa, Francis Drake. "Prospects for economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda : a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2014. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/bffe7268-93dc-434c-a138-07af2843a51f.
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Uganda faces considerable challenges in revamping economic growth performance, reducing the proportional of people living below the poverty line to below 20 percent, and attaining other Millennium Development Goals by the year 2015. These developments have prompted the government to prioritise poverty alleviation and the attainment of sustainable real GDP growth (i.e. at 7 percent per annum), among other policies. This dissertation argues that a proper identification of the critical sectors of growth with significant linkages to the rest of the economy can guide policy makers to affect the outcomes of external shocks (e.g. by redirecting resources to sectors with potential for higher output growth and welfare effects) .Using the 2002 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Uganda, we investigate the properties of the multipliers that can be calculated from the SAM, in particular contrasting them with the simpler input-output multipliers. Using the SAM multipliers, the computed linkages suggest that Agriculture, Food Processing, and Other Services (Trade, and Health and Education) are the key sectors of Uganda’s economy. Similarly, Manufacturing, Construction, and Transport were found to be sectors with weak linkages to the rest of the economy. Moreover, the multiplier impact on output, employment, and household income distribution is higher with in agriculture relative to other sectors. Our multiplier results confirm the need for policy makers in Uganda to target agriculture-led growth if Uganda is to substantially raise economy wide growth, and to improve household incomes for significant poverty alleviation. Policies to boost the agriculture sector include: building and maintaining feeder roads, provision of farm inputs, training farmers on better methods of production and productivity, reviving cooperatives (i.e. to enable coordinated farming activities, storage, processing, and marketing of farmers produce, and easy access to credit from lending institutions). It should be noted that Agriculture in Uganda is characterised by low productivity resulting from the use of poor inputs, undeveloped value chains, and low public and private investment in the sector. Government should significantly invest in agro-processing industries to increase value addition and exports for higher incomes. Since such investments are costly, requiring significant capital investments which majority of poor farmers cannot afford, the government should promote public-private sector partnership. It should be noted that Uganda’s exports are dominated by unprocessed primary low products which fetch low earnings from world markets. Using a country specific CGE model and selected exogenous changes and policies, our findings suggest that an increase in the world price of exports and workers remittances, and a decrease in import tariffs are growth and welfare enhancing with the positive shock to world export prices producing the largest impact on real GDP, employment (largely, low skilled labour and in agriculture), factor and household incomes. The significant role of migrant remittances in growth and poverty alleviation (i.e. by increasing household incomes, and investment in agriculture, education, and real estate among others) is worth noting. These findings suggest that Ugandan authorities could encourage Ugandans living and working abroad to invest at home by introducing a diaspora bond and sharing information on investment opportunities to encourage increased inflow of workers remittances which would boost domestic investment. Where possible, surplus labour could be exported to other regions or countries and arrangements made to have workers remittances invested in Uganda. In all the policy experiments performed, we find that the welfare of households in the northern and eastern regions of the country is lower compared to that of households based in other regions. This suggests that the government needs to design and implement specific poverty alleviation programs in these regions. The relatively high poverty in northern and eastern regions is attributed to the 19 year civil conflict and the communal land ownership which limits agriculture production for food security and improved household incomes. The government could increase the provision of social and physical infrastructure and promote sustainable agriculture by opening up irrigation schemes, supplying farmers with drought resistant crops, restocking farms, and building and maintain valley dams, and implementing land reforms which promote agriculture. Given the importance of agriculture to Uganda’s growth and poverty alleviation prospects, we argue that the government should implement the recommendations of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) and the Maputo Declaration which calls for the allocation of 10 percent of the national budget to agriculture. This allocation is necessary to achieve the target of agriculture sector growth by 6 percent which is required to reduce significantly the number of Ugandans living in extreme poverty and hunger. The budgetary allocation of 4 percent coupled with inadequate supervision, and corruption and misallocation of funds meant for agriculture development programs have contributed to persistent decline in in output and increase in rural and urban poverty. Our results suggest agriculture is associated with higher employment of low skilled labour which is the largest labour force in Uganda. According to the World Bank, employment is the surest way to poverty alleviation. Thus, Uganda should pursue an agriculture led growth strategy for poverty alleviation and sustained economic growth. However, to substantially increase household incomes and contribute to poverty alleviation, policy interventions in agriculture should focus on increasing value addition through food processing and exports. Further, interventions that empower women to own assets should be enforced by government. Women are the principal users of land, and they must have stronger rights over the resources they depend upon. Our simulations have demonstrated that employment and incomes of women increase from interventions that target the agriculture sector in Uganda. Women constitute over 90 percent of the total labour force employed in agriculture and earn less or none of farm incomes, and most of them operate under chronic poverty. To gain greater knowledge of and control over their environment and build more productive sustainable systems, the government could empower women with basic education and training, increase their access to new technologies and mobilise them to participate in rural saving banks and cooperatives to boost their earnings from agriculture. Our results suggest that Services (mainly education and health) are potential candidates for growth and poverty alleviation in Uganda because they generate significant employment. However, Uganda, Services employ high skilled labour and are urban based, implying they cannot absorb the dominant low skilled labour and the youth. According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Uganda currently has about 34.5 million people of which about 65 percent are youth. About 83 percent of these youth (aged 18-30 years) have no formal employment. This calls for authorities in Uganda to reorient the current curriculum towards her development needs where the youth and graduates are trained to be job creators and not job seekers. Massive investment in vocation training where the youth are trained and equipped with skills to manage their own lives by engaging in small scale projects should be prioritised by the government. To overcome the high rate of youth and graduate unemployment in developing countries Uganda inclusive, the donor community in collaboration with African governments identified vocational training as a critical component in each country’s poverty reduction strategy.
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Rumler, Fabio. "Computable general equilibrium modeling. Numerical simulations in a 2-country monetary general equilibrium model." Inst. für Volkswirtschaftstheorie und -politik, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 1999. http://epub.wu.ac.at/70/1/document.pdf.
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This paper presents the concept of numerical CGE modeling with the help of a 2-country general equilibrium model. In the framework of this simple dynamic monetary model the effects of a (unilateral) monetary and fiscal expansion are simulated. The exchange rate of the home vis-à-vis the foreign currency depreciates in response to both types of shocks. The monetary expansion leads to an increase in home relative to foreign private consumption and to a sharp increase in relative home output in the short run, while in the long run output increases in the foreign country and decreases in the home country. The unilateral fiscal expansion, on the other hand, results in a fall of private consumption in the home relative to the foreign country, and in an increase in relative home output in the short as well as in the long run. The world real interest rate falls quite substantially in response to both shocks. (author's abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Kinyondo, Godbertha K. "The implications of globalisation on South African gender and economy a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis /." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2007. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-11222007-170024.
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Koronczi, Karol. "Macroeconomic Policy Analysis of Slovak Republic with Focus on Foreign Trade - A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium（CGE）Approach." Graduate School of International Development. Nagoya University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/6285.
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Zhu, Jie. "A spatial computable general equilibrium model for London and surrounding regions." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.610888.
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Lee, Huey-Lin 1974. "Modelling private vehicle use in a computable general equilibrium model of Taiwan." Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies, 2002. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/7895.
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Gillespie, Gary. "Modelling the system-wide impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Scotland : an ownership-disaggregated regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2000. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=21179.
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The central aim of this thesis is to develop a modelling framework that is capable of analysing the system-wide impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Scotland. In 1996, foreign-owned plants accounted for around 40,35 and 23 per cent of Scottish manufacturing output, gross value added and employment. Moreover, the attraction of FDI remains an important part of UK regional policy in Scotland with just under half of all Regional Selective Assistance (RSA) awarded to foreign-owned firms. A key concern of this type of discretionary regional policy is whether such assistance is warranted. FDI is thought to have a range of potential demand and supply-side effects and foreign-owned manufacturing plants, in general, have quite distinct structural and behavioural characteristics, as compared with indigenous plants. Yet conventional regional system-wide evaluations of FDI typically focus on demand-side issues, using regional models that assume a passive supply-side and do not disaggregate by ownership. In this thesis I construct ownership-disaggregated Scottish Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium Models in order to illustrate both the potential demand and supply-side impacts of FDI. The construction of the ownership disaggregated I-0 database provides a unique snapshot of the structure and interaction of foreign and UK-owned plants in Scotland. This provides detailed information as well as providing the basis for calibrating the ownership-disaggregated I-0 and CGE models. The analysis of the potential supply-side impacts of FDI, particularly labour market and 'efficiency spillover' effects, indicates that both can have a significant effect on the estimate of total FDI supported employment. Finally, I develop a simulation framework that is capable of separately identifying the importance of incorporating both 'structure' and 'behaviour' in regional models of FDI. The results indicate that incorporating the 'true' structure of foreign-owned plants is essential if one is to correctly estimate the system-wide impact of FDI.
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Yalew, Amsalu, Georg Hirte, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Stefan Tscharaktschiew. "General Equilibrium Effects of Public Adaptation in Agriculture in LDCs: Evidence from Ethiopia." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227316.
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Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. This is because its important economic sector, agriculture, is virtually rain-fed. The role of the sector in the current economic structure and the potency of the anticipated biophysical impacts of climate change necessitates proactive adaptation in agriculture. This, however, breeds questions of adaptation costs and adaptation finance. This study attempts to derive plausible range of planned adaptation costs in agriculture along with their economy-wide and regional effects in Ethiopia. It also assess the economy-wide and regional effects of the likely options available to a government of a least-developed country to finance adaptation in agriculture. The results show that planned public adaptation in agriculture puts pressure on government surplus, impedes on manufacturing and private services, and GDP of urbanized regions. As such, it may strain the current macroeconomic endeavors of the country which puts government driven structural transformation and reducing fiscal deficit relative to GDP at the center. Government of Ethiopia may reconcile this by laying out incentives to urban agriculture and private investment in agriculture. Besides, foreign support in the form of biotechnology transfer and debt-relief may help to control the side effects of grants on foreign exchange market and trade balance.
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Deng, Ziliang. "The productivity spillovers of foreign direct investment in China : a computable general equilibrium model." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2009. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/29397/.
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One of the most important aspects of foreign direct investment (FDI) is that it embodies advanced technologies and business practices which can spill over to domestic firms via various channels, e.g. labour mobility, input-output linkages, export of multinational affiliates, demonstration and competition. This research combines computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling and econometric techniques to quantify FDI productivity spillovers. The research is conducted in the context of the Chinese economy. A static lOl-sector CGE model is constructed to measure the endogenous productivity spillovers of FDI. Spillover effects are analysed under three different market structure assumptions, namely perfect competition, monopolistic competition with homogeneous firms, and monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms. The research results show that the presence of FDI productivity spillovers can generally improve the productivity and output level of domestic enterprises in China. Spillovers make foreign firms' total output decrease. But collectively, spillovers exert positive impact on national aggregate variables, i.e. GDP, total output and welfare. The market structure assumptions of monopolistic competition and firm heterogeneity provide more perspectives (e.g. product variety and scale) for this research than the assumption of perfect competition does. A removal of preferential corporate income tax treatment on foreign enterprises can increase the output level of domestic enterprises and promote national welfare. From a dynamic perspective, it could also promote the productivity splllovers from foreign firms.
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Easterly, William Russell. "A computable general equilibrium model of Mexico with portfolio balances : with application to devaluation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/15128.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 1985.MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY
Includes bibliographies.
by William Russell Easterly.
Ph.D.
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Ko, Shwe Zin. "Narrowing income disparities as policy priority for inclusive economic growth: An applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach on urban and non-urban industries in Myanmar." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2016. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1946.
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Since 2011, Myanmar has progressively liberalized its international trade and investment policies, resulting in both opportunities and challenges. The rising inequality between urban and non-urban areas, and within urban areas, has become a growing concern for policy makers, in addition to the existing and pervasive poverty issue. This research considers whether the support of a more skilled premium in labour supply, through investment in the human capital policy, can significantly improvement current developmental constraints. The research also investigates what policies Myanmar must integrate alongside its trade and investment liberalization policies to ensure inclusive growth. To highlight the concerns of this research, the concept of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and the ORANI_G single country model are applied to test a sample of 57 sectors, under 15 different industries, by using the GEMPack software.
The results obtained are justified and presented under four classifications of urban and non-urban industries, and confirm that by integrating Fritzen’s proposed “egalitarian, high-quality educational systems” into Myanmar’s current situation, new employment opportunities would increase by 684.75%: 465.67% from urban industries and 219.08% from non-urban industries. Household purchasing power would also grow noticeably: by 149.93% in urban households, 61.78% in rural households, 13.01% in regional households and 28.24% in households from supporting families. The overall capacity of Myanmar’s labour force and a household’s purchasing power would be better, and the income inequality gap within urban and non-urban could be reduced to some extent. However, urban and non-urban income inequality gap could still be existed, over a period of 2 years.
This study finds that, in an economy driven by human capital, Myanmar’s five service sectors, four primary production sectors, 16 value-added sectors (made up of 6 labour-intensive sectors and 10 capital-intensive sectors) could increase production capacity and establish stronger market competitiveness. Competitive output prices would establish market competition, both in domestic and export markets, and thus, the current account deficit problem would also be eased. This finding highlights the viability of shifting Myanmar’s economic structure from agriculture-based industries and primary-product industries to knowledge- and skill-based industries and capital-based industries. Policy improvement brings about an increase in employment opportunities by 74.69% from urban industries and by 25.31% from non-urban industries. If Myanmar policy-makers could intervene with other policies that control rising land and capital prices, as well as with financial and monetary policies that control the inflation rate, an additional five urban sectors and two regional industries could grow in the short-term with a 99.66% increase in employment: 72.69% from urban industries and 26.97% from non-urban industries. Overall, if Myanmar policy-makers implement education alongside trade and investment liberalization policy and financial and monetary policy, labour-intensive production industries and primary-production industries will improve, as well as the skilled and capital-intensive industries. Such economic growth could equal East Asia’s rate of development.
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TRAN, Thanh Tu. "A Study on Low Carbon Development with a Computable General Equilibrium Model : Application to Vietnam." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/161002.
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Gomes, Josà Weligton FÃlix. "General equilibrium model for computable policy analysis fiscal agent heterogeneous restricted and non restricted credit." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2012. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=9873.
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CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel SuperiorThis research aims to develop a computable general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents restricted (p-type) and not restricted to credit (q-type) for policy analysis. We used data from the National Accounts (IBGE), PNAD (2009), IPEADATA, to calibrate the model according to the Brazilian economy in 2009. According to the model 11:31% of agents (p-type) generate 0:65% of the total income and are responsible for paying 0:66% of the total tax burden. While other agents (q-type) generate 99:35% of income accounting for 99:34% of the payment of the tax burden. In terms of importance of sources of income, while for p-type income transfers correspond to 55% of labor income for agents of q-type these account for only 16%, which leads to dierent choices of work and leisure between these two types of agents.
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo de equilbrio geral comput avel com agentes heterog^eneos restritos (tipo p) e n~ao restritos ao credito (tipo q) para ns de analise de poltica. Utilizou-se dados das Contas Nacionais (IBGE), PNAD (2009), IPEADATA, para calibrar o modelo segundo a economia brasileira no ano de 2009. De acordo com o modelo, 11; 31% dos agentes (tipo p) geram 0; 65% do total da renda e s~ao responsaveis por pagar 0; 66% da carga total tributaria. Enquanto que os demais agentes (tipo q) geram 99; 35% da renda sendo responsaveis por 99; 34% do pagamento da carga tributaria. Em termos de import^ancia das fontes de rendimentos, enquanto para o tipo p rendas de transfer^encias correspondem a 55% da renda do trabalho, para agentes do tipo q estas correspondem a apenas 16%, o que provoca escolhas distintas de trabalho e lazer entre esses dois tipos de agentes.
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Pratt, Stephen A. "The economic impact of uncertain tourism demand in Hawaii : risk in a computable general equilibrium model." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2009. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/10753/.
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This thesis estimates the economic impact of uncertain tourism demand in Hawaii. It does this by incorporating risk into a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. CGE models have been used to investigate a wide range of policy issues. To date, none have investigated how uncertainty regarding future tourism demand impacts on an economy. The context in which this research is set is the US State of Hawaii. The economy of Hawaii is heavily dependent on tourism as a source of income and a generator of employment. Shocks originating outside of Hawaii have resulted in sharp decreases in visitor arrivals to Hawaii. Yet, these events and the risks associated with future possible shocks to an economy is something that needs to be factored in when planning for the future hence the need to understand what type of impacts uncertain tourism demand will have on the economy. This thesis develops a new method for incorporating uncertainty within an applied economic model. The method involves incorporating uncertainty through different states of the world or paths that the economy may take. The risk then is that one or more of the paths may experience an external shock, which in the example used is a downturn in tourism demand. This thesis then adds to the body of knowledge methodologically. The multi-sector forward-looking CGE model with risk shows the impact of uncertainty on the economy. The results show that, where there is an asymmetric shock, the possibility of a future tourism demand shock creates a welfare loss. The welfare gains along the non-shocked path are a result of household’s risk aversion and their substituting resources away from the shocked path. The difference in the monetary values of the welfare on the different paths can be interpreted as the ‘price’ of the risk. It is the price households would pay to remove the possibility of the tourism shock. Therefore, this research was able to quantify the monetary value of the risk. Several government policy decisions, such as the imposition of a tourism tax, are simulated to mitigate the impact of the uncertainty.
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Gelana, Ayele. "Impacts of devaluation on urban rural interactions : a computable general equilibrium model for the Ethiopian economy." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.248664.
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Adam, Mohammed Amin. "Oil boom, fiscal policy and economic development : a computable general equilibrium analysis of the role of alternative fiscal rules in Ghana's emerging petroleum economy." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2014. https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/a96d44d7-e4cb-4eb5-9bcc-b3d2033737e9.
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The objectives of the study are to assess the fiscal sustainability and development impacts of Ghana’s fiscal rule for allocating petroleum revenues to the annual budget against alternative fiscal rules - the permanent income and the bird-in-hand rules. Fiscal sustainability is measured by government long-term fiscal space in proportion to non-oil GDP, whilst development impacts are measured through a dynamic CGE model of Ghana. Generally, the study makes four important findings on how fiscal policy triggered by the inflow of new petroleum revenues could affect the long-term fiscal sustainability and growth of the economy. One, Ghana’s fiscal rule is neither fiscally sustainable nor provide higher impacts of petroleum revenues on economic development relative to the permanent income and the bird-in-hand rules. Two, fiscal sustainability does not necessarily lead to greater development outcomes. The bird-in-hand rule is the most fiscally sustainable, but the permanent income rule provides higher development outcomes and can move Ghana’s transformation towards a full middle income status. Three, institutional quality in a country could lead to efficiency gains in government spending. Four, efficiency in government spending could improve on development outcomes. Ghana could therefore benefit from its petroleum revenues by adopting the permanent income rule; and with temporary petroleum revenues, the focus of the country should be on current investment of petroleum revenues in building the country’s asset base to support short-term and long-term growth of the economy. However, this should be complemented with strengthening the quality of institutional arrangements to enhance efficiency in government spending.
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Wijerathna, W. M. Deeptha Bandara. "Place-Based versus Place-Neutral Policies for Promoting Regionally Balanced Economic Growth: A Sri Lankan Case using CGE based Simulations." Thesis, Griffith University, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367156.
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Development thinking has evolved over the time, and the role of space in economic growth and regional equity in economic development has become increasingly emphasized. While some reports, such as World Bank (2009), suggest resolution of the spatial problem by redistributing a part of the income generated in urbanized and agglomerated areas, some other reports and authors such as Barca (2012) have highlighted the importance of place-based policies for this purpose. The post 2015 development agenda of the United Nations also highlights the issue of regional equity. According to the literature on the economics of conflict, regional disparities in economic development can be one of the root causes for many conflicts -- while these conflicts can in turn contribute to further widening of those disparities. Sri Lanka is not an exception in this regard. Although regionally balanced economic growth is accepted as contributing to a cure for both problems, thus far rigorous quantitative studies analysing appropriate policy measures for reducing regional disparities whilst maintaining steady economic growth at the national level are lacking. Selection and implementation of an appropriate analytical tool to carry out such an analysis is another gap in the literature.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
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Schneider, Martin, and Manfred M. Fischer. "Multiregional Computational General Equilibrium, and Spatial Interaction Trade Modelling: An Empirical Example." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 1999. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4142/1/WSG_DP_6899.pdf.
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This paper analyses the effects of enhanced trade between Austria and its four neighbouring Central
and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Slovenia) on sectoral
production and regional welfare in Austria. The analysis is based on two distinct modelling traditions
at the centre of regional science. The first model (a Fischer-Johansson Model of bilateral trade flows)
is used to predict the volume and commodity composition of future trade flows based on a long term
income scenario. The predicted long-term increases of the trade flows are huge. Exports rise by 190 %
and imports by 160 % (compared to 1995). The effects of these trade flows on sectoral production and
regional welfare in Austria are simulated by means of a multiregional computable general equilibrium
model for the Austrian economy. The model contains the 9 Federal Provinces (NUTS-II). The likely
implications of the projected trade flows are measured in terms of real income, which can be expected
to rise by 1.2 %. The welfare gains will not necesarily be shared equally by all Federal Provinces. The
results indicate a clear East-West pattern with the eastern regions of Austria gaining most. (authors' abstract)Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience
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Ertac, Dizem. "Investigating the effects of environmental and energy policies in Turkey using an energy-disaggregated CGE model." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/315740.
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This thesis investigates environmental and energy policies that Turkey needs to adopt on its way to a sustainable development path. A comparative-static, multi-sectoral CGE model, TurkMod, is developed in order to analyze the potential scenarios available for the Turkish economy to attain a low-carbon society with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports. Domestic energy demand has significantly increased in Turkey over the past decades and this has put a lot of pressure on policy-makers as the economy greatly depends on imports of natural gas and oil as far as current energy consumption is concerned. The CGE model in this study is based on a 2012 energy-disaggregated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) constructed as a part of this thesis as well. The energy-disaggregated SAM incorporates 18 sectors for production activities, 11 products as commodities, 2 factors of production as labor and capital, 3 institutional accounts as firms, households, and the government, a separate account for taxes on commodities, taxes on production and taxes on different types of factor use, a capital account, and finally the rest of the world (ROW) account. Disaggregating the electricity sector to include 8 different types of power generating sectors (5 of which are renewable energy sources) enables electric power substitution in the model. The energy-disaggregated SAM is further linked with satellite accounts which include data on derived energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.The macroeconomic and environmental impacts of four distinct sets of scenarios are analyzed with respect to the baseline scenario. The first scenario simulates a 30% increase in energy efficiency in the production sectors and the residential sector and evidence is found for reaching the 21% GHG mitigation target set in Turkey’s pledge for Paris Agreement compliance. The second set of scenarios is the inclusion of a medium-level and high-level carbon tax rates for coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax scenarios produce significant effects on both emission reduction targets and substituting fossil fuel technologies with cleaner energy types. The third scenario investigates the sectoral and welfare impacts of providing subsidies for renewable energy sources. Turkey has already adopted a scheme where renewable energies are beings subsidized and promoted, however, this policy does not produce the necessary transformation for the Turkish society when utilized solely on its own. The fourth scenario estimates the effects of changes in world prices of energy on the Turkish economy. A 20% increase in world energy prices, i.e. oil, natural gas, and coal, induces substantial changes in the breakdown of TPES and the power-generating sector, but this scenario is a rather hypothetical one as it cannot be suggested as a viable policy option. All in all, these potential energy scenarios have significant and influential impacts on the Turkish economy and its environment. Notwithstanding, a carbon tax policy proves to be the most viable scenario which leads to reduced energy intensities in all sectors, a 21% GHG emissions abatement, and a transformation of the energy sector towards having a low-carbon content along with a reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports.Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
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Slocum, Susan L. "The impact of tourism on the economy of Nevada a tourism satellite account and computable general equilibrium model /." abstract and full text PDF (free order & download UNR users only), 2006. http://0-gateway.proquest.com.innopac.library.unr.edu/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:1433417.
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Cameron, Marthinus Johannes. "Policy analysis in South Africa with regional applied general equilibrium models / M.J. Cameron." Thesis, North-West University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/2024.
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Bokhari, Abla Abdul. "The economic impacts of religious tourism in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia : evaluating using the Computable General Equilibrium model." Thesis, University of Bradford, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.507955.
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Luckmann, Jonas Jens [Verfasser], and Harald [Akademischer Betreuer] Grethe. "An integrated computable general equilibrium model including multiple types and uses of water / Jonas Jens Luckmann. Betreuer: Harald Grethe." Hohenheim : Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1101573422/34.
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Lucia, Caterina De. "Integrating local and EU environmental policies, trade and transboundary pollution in an enlarged Europe : a computable general equilibrium model." Thesis, University of York, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.444666.
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Tchouamou, Njoya Eric [Verfasser], and K. [Akademischer Betreuer] Mitusch. "Aviation, Tourism and Poverty Relief in Kenya: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis / Eric Tchouamou Njoya. Betreuer: K. Mitusch." Karlsruhe : KIT-Bibliothek, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1097380904/34.
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Kerwat, Jamal S. "Constructing a Social Accounting Matrix for Libya and Using it to Conduct Policy Experiments with a Computable General Equilibrium Model." Thesis, University of Dundee, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.521665.
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Mosa, Abdulaziz Abdulsemed [Verfasser], and Harald [Akademischer Betreuer] Grethe. "Non-agricultural activities and household time use in Ethiopia : a computable general equilibrium model analysis / Abdulaziz Abdulsemed Mosa ; Betreuer: Harald Grethe." Hohenheim : Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1197125604/34.
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Butt, Muhammad Shoaib. "Impact of Tariff Cuts on Pakistan: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with Particular Focus on Main Exports and Regional Disparities." Thesis, Griffith University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/365384.
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The history of Pakistan has been characterised by frequent military interventions in the democratic governing process, diverse economic and trade policies pursued by different autocratic and democratic governments, and regional conflicts and disparities which led to the civil war of 1971 and the secession of the country’s majority wing—East Pakistan. More recently, in common with other South Asian economies, Pakistan has embarked on an extensive trade liberalisation program since the late 1980s, with across-the-board tariff reductions being one of its key ingredients. This study critically reviews the political economy of Pakistan and examines the likely impacts, in both the short run and long run, of the comprehensive tariff cuts on the economy as a whole, its key industries, and its main regions. In doing so, it utilises a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the economy. The study highlights the effects of the tariff cuts on the country’s major exports, and on the output and employment levels of various regions of Pakistan.
The review of Pakistan’s economy reveals a possible, positive relationship between trade liberalisation and regional disparities under military regimes. By contrast, under truly democratic governments, trade liberalisation has tended to be associated with reduced disparities. CGE model simulations suggest that across-the-board tariff reductions increase real GDP slightly in the short run but significantly in the long run. At the microeconomic level, a striking implication of the tariff cuts is a persistent slowdown, or even a decline, in cotton and textile related exports in the long run. Increases in regional disparities are also likely. In the short run, the gap between the rates of output growth of the largest and most developed region, Punjab, and two smaller and less developed regions—North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan—will probably rise sharply. In the long run, a sustained increase in unemployment in another smaller region, Sindh, is predicted. The study recommends a number of appropriate policy responses to these likely developments, at the national as well as regional levels of government.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics
Griffith Business School
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Olwert, Craig Thomas. "A Computable General Equilibrium Model of the City with Optimization of its Transportation Network: Impacts of Changes in Technology, Preferences, and Policy." The Ohio State University, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1269369926.
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Choi, Ki-Whan. "Economic Effects of Land Value Taxation in an Urban Area with Large Lot Zoning: an Urban Computable General Equilibrium Approach." unrestricted, 2006. http://etd.gsu.edu/theses/available/etd-07182006-170042/.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia State University, 2006.Title from title screen. David L. Sjoquist, committee chair; Geoffrey K. Turnbull, Sally Wallace, Michael J. Rushton, committee members. Electronic text (195 p : charts) : digital, PDF file. Description based on contents viewed on June 7, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 181-194).
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Otto, Vincent M., Andreas Loeschel, and John M. Reilly. "Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy." MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32541.
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This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward-looking CGE model that captures empirical links between CO2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find the cost-effective climate policy to include a combination of R&D subsidies and CO2 emission constraints, although R&D subsidies raise the shadow value of the CO2 constraint (i.e. CO2 price) because of a strong rebound effect from stimulating innovation. Furthermore, we find that CO2 constraints differentiated toward CO2-intensive sectors are more cost effective than constraints that generate uniform CO2 prices among sectors. Differentiated CO2 prices, through technical change and concomitant technology externalities, encourage growth in the non-CO2 intensive sectors and discourage growth in CO2-intensive sectors. Thus, it is cost effective to let the latter bear relatively more of the abatement burden. This result is robust to whether emission constraints, R&D subsidies or combinations of both are used to reduce CO2 emissions.Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
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Godoy, Priscila Henriques. "A hipótese da desindustrialização e os impactos de políticas de estímulo à indústria brasileira: uma análise de equilíbrio geral." Universidade de São Paulo, 2013. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-04092013-102649/.
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O debate sobre a desindustrialização brasileira é bastante denso e ainda inconclusivo, embora haja algum consenso entre as diferentes vertentes econômicas de que o setor manufatureiro tem passado por dificuldades, principalmente após a crise financeira de 2008. Tendo este cenário em vista, o governo atuou na tentativa de restaurar a atividade industrial com algumas medidas de estímulo ao setor e através de políticas macroeconômicas (câmbio e juros). Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho investiga os impactos econômicos dessas políticas - redução da taxa de juros, desoneração da folha de pagamentos, redução do IPI, restrição ao fluxo de capitais estrangeiros (elevação do IOF) e redução da tarifa de energia elétrica - sobre a produção, o bem-estar, o consumo, entre outras variáveis macroeconômicas e setoriais. Além disso, busca-se analisar outras duas medidas alternativas - subsídio ao setor de transportes e reforma tributária, comparando seus resultados com aqueles obtidos pela avaliação das medidas já adotadas pelo governo. Para tanto, utiliza-se um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC) calibrado para o ano de 2009, com o intuito de estudar cenários de adoção dessas políticas e contribuir para a literatura econômica de forma mais objetiva. Os resultados obtidos pela modelagem indicam que é possível afirmar que muitas das medidas implementadas mostram-se adequadas para o contexto da economia brasileira no pós-crise, seja pelos benefícios setoriais associados a um maior nível tecnológico da produção quanto pelos resultados macroeconômicos de reanimar a atividade econômica. As medidas de redução na taxa de juros (Selic e TJLP) e reforma tributária neutra que considera a substituição dos impostos intermediários pelo VAT são capazes de elevar o PIB e o bem-estar e ainda melhorar a composição setorial da produção e exportação, sem que a atividade do governo seja negativamente afetada. Outras medidas, como a desoneração da folha de pagamentos, reforma tributária com redução da receita fiscal, e a redução no IPI também trazem bons resultados, mas não se sustentam no longo prazo se não houver mudança na eficiência dos gastos públicos, uma vez que todas geram queda na atividade do governo. No sentido contrário, as medidas de subsídio ao setor de transporte, de redução da tarifa de energia elétrica e redução do fluxo de capitais externos, que implicam na atuação do governo sobre o livre funcionamento do mercado, geraram resultados indesejados no que diz respeito a um menor estímulo a indústrias de maior conteúdo tecnológico, além de não reverterem a perda de participação da indústria no emprego e no PIB.Brazilian deindustrialization debate is quite dense and still inconclusive, although there is some consensus on the manufacturing struggle among different economic approaches, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. Considering this scenario, the government has been acting in an attempt to restore industrial activity by granting stimuli focused on the manufacturing sector and curbing currency appreciation. In this context, this study aims to investigate the economic impacts of these policies on GDP, welfare, consumption and macroeconomic and sectorial variables. Furthermore, alternative policies were considered, in order to compare the results with those obtained through the evaluation of effective government policies. Therefore, we apply a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, updated for 2009, in order to study the effects of adopting these polices and contribute to the economic literature concerning this subject. The results indicate that it is possible to affirm that most measures are appropriate to help Brazilian economy after the crisis, both by sector benefits associated with a higher technological level of production and by improving macroeconomic outcomes. Measures to reduce interest rate (Selic and TJLP) and neutral tax reform that considers the replacement of intermediaries tax by VAT are able to raise GDP and welfare and to further improve the sectoral composition of production and export, without adversely affecting government activity. Other measures, such as payroll exemptions, tax reform with reduction of the fiscal income, and IPI reduction also bring good results, but would hardly be maintained in long term if there is no change in public spending efficiency, since all have negative impacts on government activity. On the contrary, subsidies to the transport sector, cuts in electricity rates and restriction to foreign capital inflow, which reflect government action on free market functioning, led to undesirable results in the context of raising technological level of the Brazilian production and reverse industry participation loss in employment and GDP.
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Silva, Mariana Rezende e. "Mandatos de biocombustíveis e crescimento da demanda mundial de etanol: efeitos sobre a economia brasileira." Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), 2017. https://repositorio.ufjf.br/jspui/handle/ufjf/6487.
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O agravamento dos efeitos do aquecimento global, a volatilidade do preço do petróleo e a preocupação com a segurança energética são questões que contribuem para o aumento dos incentivos para a produção de biocombustíveis e o desenvolvimento de políticas relacionadas. A partir dos anos 2000 regiões como dos Estados Unidos e União Europeia lançaram os mandatos de biocombustíveis, políticas que estabelecem metas de consumo e produção de combustíveis renováveis até o ano de 2020. O crescimento da demanda interna não é acompanhado de um crescimento na oferta interna, precisando assim, importar etanol ou biodiesel. É nesse cenário que surge o Brasil como possível provedor de etanol para essas regiões por conta da disponibilidade de terras para a expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar, a alta produtividade dessa commodity e o conhecimento da tecnologia de produção. O principal objetivo dessa dissertação é analisar o papel do Brasil no mercado mundial de biocombustíveis e identificar as implicações causadas pelas políticas de combustíveis renováveis de regiões como Estados Unidos e União Europeia. Para esse fim, foi construído um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável a partir do Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), denominado GTAP-BIOBR. Nesse modelo estão desagregados os setores de biocombustíveis o que favorece a análise do comércio de etanol da cana, que tem como principal produtor o Brasil. A estratégia de análise empregada foi de simular três cenários com choques nas exportações brasileiras de etanol para os Estados Unidos e União Europeia no ano de 2020. Os resultados revelam que a produção de etanol no Brasil cresceria em todas as situações, acompanhado do crescimento do nível de atividade econômica. Por outro lado, o preço do etanol da cana sofreria uma queda e ocorreria perda de bem-estar econômico no país em consequência da piora dos termos de troca.
The worsening effects of global warming, the volatility of oil prices and the concern about energy security are issues that contribute to increasing incentives for the production of biofuels and the development of related policies. Since the 2000’s, regions such as the United States and the European Union have launched the biofuel mandates, policies that set targets for consumption and production of renewable fuels by the year 2020. The growth of domestic demand is not accompanied by a growth in domestic supply, thus needing to import ethanol or biodiesel. It is in this scenario that Brazil emerges as a possible supplier of ethanol to these regions because of the availability of land for the expansion of sugar cane cultivation the high productivity of this commodity and the knowledge of production technology. The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze the role of Brazil in the world biofuels market and to identify the implications caused by the renewable fuel policies of regions such as the United States and the European Union. For this purpose, a Computable General Equilibrium model was constructed from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) called GTAP-BIOBR. In this model, the biofuels sectors are disaggregated, which favors the analysis of the sugarcane ethanol trade, whose main producer is Brazil. The analysis strategy employed was to simulate three scenarios with shocks in Brazilian ethanol exports to the United States and the European Union in the year 2020. The results show that ethanol production in Brazil would increase in all situations, accompanied by the growth of the level of economic activity. On the other hand, the price of sugarcane ethanol would suffer a fall and there would be a loss of economic welfare in the country as a result of the worsening terms of trade.
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Proença, Sara Isabel Azevedo. "Impact assessment of energy and climate policies : a hybrid botton-up general equilibrium model (HyBGem) for Portugal." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6126.
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Doutoramento em EconomiaClimate change mitigation and the imperative of a new sustainable energy paradigm are among the greatest challenges facing the world today, and they are high on the priority list of policy makers as well as within the scientific community. In this context significant efforts are being made in the design and implementation of energy and carbon mitigation policies at both European and national level. Evidence of this can be seen in the recent adoption by the EU of an integrated climate and energy policy that setts ambitious binding targets to be achieved by 2020 – known as the 20-20-20 targets of the EU Climate and Energy Package. Undoubtedly, the cost of these policies can be substantially reduced if a comprehensive impact assessment is made of the most efficient and cost-effective policy measures and technological options. Policy impact assessment therefore plays an important role in supporting the energy and climate decision-making process. This is the context of and motivation for the research presented in this thesis. The first part of the thesis, the conceptual framework, describes the development of the Hybrid Bottom-up General Equilibrium Model (HyBGEM) for Portugal, as a decision-support tool to assist national policy makers in conducting energy and climate policy analysis. HyBGEM is a single integrated, multi-sector, hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium E3 model formulated as a mixed complementarity problem. The second part of the thesis, the empirical analysis, provides an impact assessment of Portugal’s 2020 energy-climate policy targets under the EU Climate and Energy Package commitments, based on the HyBGEM model and the baseline projections previously developed. Five policy scenarios have been modelled and simulated to evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impacts on Portugal of complying with its individual 2020 carbon emissions and renewable energy targets. Furthermore, insights are gained into how these targets interact with each other, what are the most efficient and cost-effective policy options, and how alternative pathways affect the extent of policy-induced effects. The numerical analysis reveals that Portugal’s 2020 energy-climate targets can be achieved without significant compliance costs. A major challenge for policy makers is to promote an effective decarbonisation of the electricity generation sector through renewable-based technologies. There is evidence that the compliance costs of Portugal’s low carbon target in 2020 are significantly higher than the costs of achieving the national RES-E target, given that imposing carbon emissions constraints and subsidising renewable electricity generation via a feed-in tariffs scheme both have a similar impact on economy-wide emissions. This result suggests that the most cost-effective policy option to achieve the national energy-climate targets is to promote renewable power generation technologies, recommending that policy makers should proceed with the mechanisms that support it. The transition to a ‘greener’ economy is thus central to the ongoing fight against climate change. There is also evidence that emission market segmentation as imposed by the current EU-ETS creates substantial excess costs compared to uniform emissions pricing through a comprehensive cap-and-trade system. The economic argument on counterproductive overlapping regulation is not corroborated by the findings. Furthermore, there is no potential for a double dividend arising from environmental tax reforms. To conclude, the results highlight the critical importance of market distortions and revenue-recycling schemes, together with baseline projections in policy impact assessment.
A mitigação das alterações climáticas e o imperativo de um novo paradigma energético sustentável estão entre os maiores desafios que o mundo de hoje enfrenta, surgindo no topo da lista de prioridades quer dos decisores políticos quer da comunidade científica. Neste contexto, têm sido envidados esforços significativos na conceção e aplicação de políticas energéticas e de mitigação de carbono, tanto a nível europeu como nacional. A recente adoção de uma política integrada da UE em matéria de clima e energia, com objetivos ambiciosos a serem alcançados até 2020 – os denominados objetivos 20-20-20 do Pacote Clima-Energia da UE, é prova disso. Não há dúvida de que o custo destas políticas pode ser substancialmente reduzido se for feita uma avaliação global das medidas e das opções tecnológicas mais eficientes e com melhor relação custo-eficácia. A avaliação de impacto das políticas desempenha assim um papel importante no apoio à tomada de decisão em matéria energética e climática. São estes o contexto e a motivação para a investigação apresentada nesta tese. A primeira parte da tese, referente à estrutura conceptual, descreve o desenvolvimento do modelo HyBGEM – Hybrid Bottom-up General Equilibrium Model, concebido para Portugal. Trata-se de uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão em matéria de políticas de energia-clima. O HyBGEM é um modelo E3 de equilíbrio geral, com uma estrutura híbrida top-down/bottom-up integrada, multi-setorial e formulado como um problema de complementaridade mista. A segunda parte da tese, referente à análise empírica, apresenta uma avaliação de impacto das políticas de energia-clima para Portugal no quadro dos compromissos assumidos no Pacote Clima-Energia da UE, com base no modelo HyBGEM e em projeções de base previamente construídas. Foram modelados e simulados cinco cenários de política para avaliar os impactos económicos, ambientais e tecnológicos do cumprimento das metas nacionais traçadas para 2020 em matéria de limitação de emissões de carbono e promoção das energias renováveis. Avalia-se também o modo como estes objetivos interagem entre si, quais são as opções de política mais eficientes e custo-eficazes, e em que medida opções alternativas influenciam a magnitude dos impactos. A análise numérica revela que as metas energia-clima 2020 para Portugal podem ser alcançadas sem incorrer em custos de cumprimento significativos. O desafio fundamental que se coloca aos decisores políticos consiste em impulsionar a descarbonização do setor de produção de energia elétrica através de tecnologias de energia renovável. Existe evidência de que os custos de cumprimento da meta de redução de carbono são significativamente mais elevados que os custos de cumprimento da meta de FER-E, sendo que a imposição de restrições às emissões e a subsidiação da produção de eletricidade a partir de fontes de energia renovável (regime de tarifas feed-in) têm um impacto semelhante sobre o total de emissões. Este resultado sugere que a promoção das tecnologias de base renovável no sistema energético nacional é a opção com melhor relação custo-eficácia para a concretização dos objetivos nacionais energia-clima para 2020, instando os decisores políticos a prosseguir com os mecanismos de apoio existentes. A transição para uma economia mais ‘verde’ afigura-se assim fundamental no combate em curso contra as alterações climáticas. A análise revela também que a segmentação do mercado de emissões imposta pelo atual CELE gera custos adicionais substanciais quando comparada com um sistema de direitos de emissão uniforme. O argumento económico de que a sobreposição de regulamentação é contraproducente não é corroborado pelos resultados. A expectativa de um duplo dividendo decorrente das reformas fiscais em matéria ambiental não foi confirmada. Os resultados destacam ainda a importância crítica das distorções de mercado, dos sistemas de reciclagem de receitas e das projeções de base, para a avaliação de impacto das políticas.
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VIANA, Jorge Henrique Norões. "Impactos de uma Redução na Disponibilidade Hídrica Sobre a Agricultura e a Pobreza Multidimensional No Brasil." Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2016. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/17447.
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Esta tese desenvolve uma plataforma integrada para avaliar os efeitos sobre a economia de possíveis reduções na disponibilidade hídrica sobre a agricultura, sobretudo o impacto de tais reduções na pobreza. Para construir a plataforma foi necessário o uso de diversas ferramentas metodológicas. Inicialmente foi construído um índice de pobreza multidimensional (MPI) para as unidades federativas do Brasil com base nos dados da POF 2008/2009. Dentre os principais resultados obtidos com esta aplicação do MPI destaca-se o percentual de 14% dos domicílios classificados como pobres usando a referida medida no Brasil. Posteriormente foi estimado um modelo de demanda por alimentos em dois estágios, com o primeiro estágio sendo um modelo Working-Leser e o segundo um modelo LA-AIDS, com variável instrumental, ambos baseados na Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF). Então foram estimadas funções de produção translog para os setores agrícola e o de Água & Esgoto (AE). Além disso, acrescentou-se uma função de produção translog ray para o setor de AE, a qual representava a criação de novas ligações de água encanada e esgotamento sanitário, baseados nos dados do Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento (SNIS) e do Censo Agropecuário 2006. Por fim, o último bloco da plataforma foi um modelo básico de Equilíbrio Geral Computável padrão, com base nos dados das Tabelas de Recurso e Usos, usando os valores estimados dos parâmetros do sistema de demanda e das funções de produção dos setores agrícolas e AE. Foram simulados três cenários envolvendo restrições de disponibilidade de água pelos setores agrícolas de 10%, 20% e 30% de forma exógena obtendo-se assim tarifas endógenas ou disposição a pagar (DAP) pelo uso da água em cada um dos setores agrícolas. Esses recursos obtidos com as tarifas permaneceriam sob o domínio do governo nestes primeiros cenários. Além disso, foram simulados mais dois cenários com restrição hídrica de 30%, mas nestes os recursos obtidos com as tarifas foram repassados para as famílias ou como um subsídio ao setor AE. Dentre os vários resultados, destaca-se que a redução na demanda total por água bruta foi maior quanto maior foi a restrição hídrica para a agricultura simulada, chegando a 18,44% sob uma restrição hídrica de 30%. Quanto a produção, sua maior redução foi de 0,39% sob uma restrição hídrica de 30% Sobre as tarifas sobre o uso da água obtidas endogenamente, resultaram bem maiores do que aquelas praticadas atualmente em algumas regiões no Brasil. Finalmente, no que diz respeito a pobreza, a medida MPI nacional foi fracamente crescente com a restrição hídrica, mas sob todos os cenários sua variação não foi estatisticamente significante. E assim como aconteceu com os demais resultados, as medidas de pobreza não variaram em decorrência do destino dos recursos obtidos com a tarifa sobre a água. Quanto a distribuição dos impactos entre as UFs, os resultados foram bastante distintos, com algumas UFs apresentando aumentos da pobreza na ordem de 15% (Amapá e Rondônia), enquanto outras apresentaram aumentos do MPI abaixo dos 2%, como São Paulo e Distrito Federal. Já entre os diferentes estratos sociais de renda, de maneira geral, famílias mais pobres sofreram mais com os aumentos nos preços dos alimentos causados pelas restrições hídricas. Por fim, ainda que não tenham sido analisados nesta tese, a plataforma encontra-se habilitada a gerar diversos outros resultados sob cenários de restrições hídricas que não envolvam apenas o setor agrícola mas também o setor de AE. Ademais, de maneira inversa ao que se apresenta como resultados nesta tese, a plataforma pode simular de forma exógena diversas tarifas de água bruta para os dois setores (agrícola e AE) e mensurar os resultantes impactos não só nas reduções de demanda dos referidos setores, mas também nos agregados econômicos e na medida de pobreza.
This thesis develops an integrated platform to assess the effects on the economy of possible reductions in water availability on agriculture, especially the impact of such reductions on poverty. To build the platform various methodological tools were required. Initially a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) to the federal units of Brazil based on data from POF 2008/2009 was built. Among the main results of this application of the MPI we can highlight that 14% of Brazilian households were classified as poor using this measure. Later a demand model for food in two stages, with the first stage being a Working-Leser model and the second a LA-AIDS model with instrumental variable, both based on the POF, was estimated. Also translog production functions for the agricultural sector and the Water & Sewer sector (AE) were estimated. In addition, we estimated a translog ray production function to the AE sector, which represented the creation of new connections of piped water and sanitation, based on data from the National Sanitation Information System (SNIS) and the Agricultural Census 2006. Finally, the last building block of the was a standard Computable General Equilibrium model, based on the data of the Tabela de Recursos e Usos, but incporporating the estimated demand system parameters and production functions of agricultural and AE sectors. We simulated three scenarios involving exogenously restrictions of water availability for agricultural sectors of 10%, 20% and 30% thus yielding endogenous tariffs or willingness to pay (WTP) for water use in each of the agricultural sectors. While the revenues of these rates would remain under government domain in these three standard scenarios. In addition, two other scenarios were simulated with water restriction of 30%, but with the revenues from these tariffs passed on directly to the families or used to finance a subsidy to the AE sector. Among the various results, it is emphasized that the reduction in the total demand for raw water (blue water) was greater than the reduction in agriculture production, with the primer reaching 18,44% under a water restriction of 30%. As for total production, the greater reduction was 0.39% under a water restriction of 30%. About the tariffs on water use obtained endogenously, they were much higher than those currently practiced in some regions in Brazil. Finally, with regard to poverty, national MPI was weakly increasing with water restriction, but under all scenarios its variation was not statistically significant. And as happened with the other results, the poverty measures did not change due to the destination of the revenues from the tariff on water. As the distribution of impacts among the Federative Units, the results were quite different, with some Federative Units presenting poverty increases above 15% (Amapá e Rondônia), while others showed poverty measures increases below 2%, like São Paulo e Distrito federal. Among the different social strata of income, in general, poorer households suffered most with increases in food prices caused by water restrictions. Finally, even if they have not been analyzed in this thesis, the platform is enabled to generate different results under other scenarios of water restrictions that not only involve the agricultural sector but also the AE sector. In addition, conversely to what is presented in this thesis, the platform can simulate various exogenously raw water tariffs for the two sectors (agricultural and AE) and measure the resulting impact not only on the demand of those sectors, but also in the economic aggregates and poverty measures.