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Irfan, Orhan. "Offensive or Neoclassical Realism? How a Great Power Shapes Its Environment." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för informatik och media, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-446418.
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This thesis aims to shed light on the differences between offensive and a specific version of neoclassical realism on their expectations regarding how a great power shapes its environment. The neoclassical framework proposed in this work constitutes an independent variable captured by the polarity in the system, an intervening variable of state capacity, and a dependent variable of revisionist foreign policy. It is argued that along with multipolarity and bipolarity, there is a need to incorporate unipolarity in structural realist accounts. Analysed from this perspective, great powers feel high external pressure due to the nature of unipolarity, which diminishes the value of pure structural frameworks. In this respect, the incorporation of state-level factors provides more reliable analyses for explaining anxious great powers` strive for regional hegemony. As a result, neoclassical realism is better equipped to explain Russia`s revisionist foreign policy.
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Johansson, Felicia. "September 11, 2001 - Why? : A qualitative case study with the purpose to study U.S. dominance and its enemy." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för statsvetenskap (ST), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-107313.
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On September 11, 2001 United States faced the most massive terrorist attack in the history, one that killed nearly 3000 people. A tragedy followed by enormous consequences considering the collapse of the World Trade Center, as two hijacked planes crashed into the twin towers in New York City, one plane crashed into Pentagon and another domestic scheduled passenger flight, that crashed into a field in Somerset County, Pennsylvania. This qualitative case study will examine whether the attacks on 9/11 was a backlash to U.S. political dominance globally. This study will also examine to what extent the policy making executed by the Bush administration post 9/11, was a demonstration of hegemony and political dominance based on offensive realism. The conclusion of this study was that to a large extent, the attacks on 9/11 was a backlash to U.S. political dominance and to a large extent the Bush administration's response to 9/11 can be defined as hegemony based on offensive realism.
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Henningsson, Ida. "EU och Ryssland : En fallstudie över hur The Eastern Partnership har påverkat relationen mellan de två parterna." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för statsvetenskap (ST), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-79942.
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In recent decades, the EU has significantly expanded its presence and influence in many of the former Soviet states. This essay have examined how the relationship between the EU and Russia has change since The Eastern Partnership was introduced 2009 and the extent to which it can be seen as a contributing factor. The Eastern Partnership is a joint initiative involving the EU, its Member States and six Eastern European Partners. Among this six this essay has focued on Ukraine and its part in the relationship between EU and Russia. This essay have been a theory-consuming case study that analyzes and explains the EU and Russia`s actions concerning the EaP, with the help of Mearsheimer`s theory of offensive realism. The analysis showed that the relations between EU and Russia had changed and deteriorated. The Eastern Partnership has provoked Russia and has made them feel restricted in their sphere of power. There has been a conflict over the six countries, including Ukraine, between the EU and Russia.
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Prifti, Bledar. "The Security and Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran: An Offensive Realism Perspective." Scholar Commons, 2009. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/1743.
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This study argues that security and foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is mainly driven by the main principles of the Offensive Realism theory of international relations. While the Iranian political system is considered a theocratic system, based on the Islamic Shi'a ideology, its survival is defined as the ultimate ideology-an ideology that is paramount to any other ideology. Iran's security and foreign policy is determined and shaped by its need to survive in an anarchic international system. Iran's cooperation with "two Satans", Israel and the United States, during the Iran-Iraq war demonstrates that the ultimate ideology of survival dominates over any other ideological predisposition. In addition, the lack of a supranational government and the fear about the intentions of other states make Iran aware of the need to rely on self-help. Iran has also realized that the best way to limit threats to its survival would be maximizing its relative military power and becoming a regional hegemony. Furthermore, a formidable military power would provide Iran with a new status in regional and global politics, deterrence power over any possible attack from other great powers, and bargaining power over regional and global matters. In order to enhance its military (conventional and nuclear) arsenal, Iran has established "strategic relations" with its historic enemy, Russia. In its quest to advance its military capabilities and avoid threats to its sovereignty, Iran sided with Christian states, against its Muslim brothers, during the Russia-Chechnya and Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts. Moreover, the Islamic state is aware of the fact that its paramount goals can be achieved by relying on precise rational strategies. In order to validate these claims, this study analyzes Iran's policy during the Iran-Iraq war and Iran's policy toward Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, the Russian-Chechen conflict, and the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
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Hammarström, Richard. "Balans eller obalans? : Mearsheimers offensiva realism i samtidens multipolära maktordning." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Akademin för lärande, humaniora och samhälle, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-44912.
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The thesis has focused on John J. Mearsheimers theory of offensive realism and applied it onto the contemporary relations between People´s Republic of China, Russian Federation, and the presence of United States in Europe and the Asian-Pacific region. The thesis concludes that the probability of war is moderate, due to the current balance of military power in each respective region. China is actively challenging the United States both militarily and politically in the international community, albeit without successful results. Russian hegemony in Europe is balanced and kept in check by the NATO alliance, which the United States is an integral part of. The Sino-Russian relations are marked by an overall respective tone between the two powerful Asian states. The thesis concludes through a mixed-method-design that the balance is currently maintained between the three states, but any deviation one way or another risk overthrow the world into an unbalanced state which is by far the deadliest, according to Mearsheimer's offensive realism.
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Bjällstrand, Thomas. "China: Friend or Foe? : Understanding the U.S Pacific Pivot to China's Confusing Confucianism." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-100928.
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The great strategic distrust between the two world largest economic and military powers is one of the most debated topics in contemporary international relations. This thesis question if the current hegemon view its new competitor as an offensive or defensive realist state and which policies should consequently be taken. China’s policy of peaceful coexistence and the U.S attempt of global integration may not be fully compatible and the thesis illuminates the contradicting notions of China Confucius values and how they are visible in its foreign policy rhetoric. The thesis conclude by stating that the China’s ambitions in not seen as following the guidelines of a defensive realist state in the eye of the United States and that China’s so called unique characteristics and values are mere rhetoric that does not seem to shape its current foreign policy. The U.S response is so far a passive containment by increasing cooperation with other actors in the region as a balancing act while simultaneously cautiously engage and try to influence China to adopt policies fitting a global player and work for peaceful solutions to international problems. Thus China is not seen as either a friend or a foe but is currently viewed as being in a grey area of competitor and cooperator.
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Tawaifi, Simon. "The Perfect Storm : How Offensive Opportunity and Ideational Distance led to third-party interventions in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-138880.
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Mendes, Flávio Pedroso. "Lakatos, o Realismo Ofensivo e o Programa de Pesquisa Científico do Realismo Estrutural." Universidade de São Paulo, 2013. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/101/101131/tde-17072013-152543/.
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Qualquer disciplina científica que se entenda como tal deve, constantemente, avaliar criticamente o mérito interno de suas abordagens, em termos de sua progressividade e da geração de conhecimento relevante. É exatamente a este tipo de reflexão que o presente trabalho doutoral se propõe, tendo como objeto a teoria das relações internacionais. Trata-se, efetivamente, de um exercício situado na fronteira entre a epistemologia, ou teoria do conhecimento, e a apreciação teórica das dinâmicas da política internacional. Precisamente, propõe-se uma análise do fôlego teórico-científico da vertente estrutural do realismo político, da forma desenvolvida seminalmente por Kenneth Waltz, diante de emendas teóricas incorporadas pelo realismo ofensivo de John Mearsheimer. Como uma tal discussão não pode prescindir de uma referência metateórica, optou-se pela aplicação da Metodologia dos Programas de Pesquisa Científicos desenvolvida por Imre Lakatos. Espera-se com esta investigação trazer três contribuições fundamentais ao estudo teórico das relações internacionais: (i) o delineamento da proposta epistemológica de Lakatos e de seus critérios de aplicação, bem como a discussão de sua adequação às ciências sociais, em geral, e à teoria das relações internacionais, em particular; (ii) sistematizar o realismo estrutural na forma de um programa de pesquisa científico, identificando seu núcleo duro, seu cinturão de proteção de hipóteses auxiliares e suas heurísticas negativa e positiva; e (iii) demonstrar que o realismo ofensivo mearsheimeriano representa uma mudança teórica intraprogramática progressiva no interior do Programa de Pesquisa Científico do Realismo Estrutural.Any scientific field of research must constantly and critically evaluate its internal developments, in terms of progressiveness and the construction of significant knowledge. That is precisely what the present dissertation is set out to do, regarding the theory of international relations. It is indeed an exercise located at the frontier between epistemology and the theoretical understanding of the international political dynamics. Specifically, the theoretical-scientific depth of structural realism, as seminally developed by Kenneth Waltz, will be analyzed in face of recent theoretical amendments proposed by John Mearsheimer\'s offensive realism. Since such an approach cannot be conducted in the absence of a metatheoretical referential, Imre Lakatos\' Methodology of Scientific Research Programs (MSRP) will be applied. Three main contributions are expected to follow from our study: (i) a clearer understanding of Lakatos\' epistemology proposal and its criteria, as well as a discussion of the adequacy of the MSRP for the social sciences, in general, and the theory of international relations, in particular; (ii) a more systematic approach to structural realism as a scientific research program, identifying its hard core, its protective belt of auxiliary hypothesis and its negative and positive heuristics; and (iii) the appreciation of offensive realism as a progressive theoryshift for the Structural Realist Research Program.
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Puric, Melisa. "Cold War Thinking Revisited : An “offensive realist” case study on the foreign policy behaviour of the U.S and Russia within the African security nexus." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Internationella relationer, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-43990.
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This paper explores theoretical propositions derived from offensive realism, applied to the instance of military export and foreign policy strategies of Russia and the U.S in the field of Africa during the post- Cold War period. The sections of this paper have disserted paradigms of this phenomena by applying the congruence method under the overarching theoretical umbrella of foreign policy analysis, to answer the question regarding does offensive realism provide relevant explanatory insight on the foreign policy of Russia and the U.S in the realm of the African security nexus? The study concludes that the degree as to which offensive realism provides relevant explanatory insight on the foreign policy strategies of the actors is strongly competitive in contrast to other explanatory theories. The study further adds to the propositions of the theoretical framework by arguing that it is conceivable that the ambition to prevent the rise of another hegemon is likely to be prioritized within foreign policy strategy to a greater extent than has been previously asserted, and has in some cases been seen as more imperative than the aspect of maximizing the domestic security, and thus survival.
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Christensson, Gustav. "“Let This Be A Warning: If You Attack Israel, We Will Defend Ourselves” : Assessing defensive and offensive realism as applied upon the Israeli conduct against Iran 2007-2020." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för statsvetenskap (ST), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-99859.
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In this theory testing case study the aim is to test which of the two competing theories, defensive and offensive realism, possess the greater explanatory power in regards to the Israeli action against Iran between 2007-2020, while subsequently assessing if either theory is applicable. Two competing analytical models, based around the seminal works of Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, and John J. Mearsheimer, will be applied upon the Israeli actions against the Iranian nuclear program and the Israeli actions against Iran in Syria. The essay utilizes a wide array of sources, from news articles to academic papers, in order to provide a correct description of the events of study. This aim was conceptualized by posing a research question, followed by four competing hypotheses. These will, in conjunction with the analytical models, enable a comparison of the explanatory power the theories possess when applied upon the Israeli conduct against Iran. It is concluded in this paper that defensive realism possesses greater explanatory power when applied upon the Israeli conduct against Iran, compared with offensive realism.
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Rezende, Lucas Pereira. "Sobe e desce! : explicando a cooperação em defesa na América do Sul : uma teoria realista-ofensiva." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/88329.
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A cooperação em defesa na América do Sul é explicada pela Teoria Realista Ofensiva de Cooperação em Defesa sob a Unipolaridade - aqui introduzida. Identificada uma lacuna significativa nas teorias de Relações Internacionais e nos trabalhos que buscam explicar, de forma ad hoc, a cooperação em defesa em outras regiões do mundo, nossa teoria traz explicações para (1) a motivação dos Estados para cooperar em defesa; (2) as variáveis independentes que afetam a cooperação em defesa; (3) um modelo amplo de cooperação em defesa que possa ser replicado em diferentes regiões do mundo. Demonstramos que cooperar em defesa serve para aumentar a posição relativa dos Estados participantes tanto frente aos demais Estados quanto frente à potência unipolar, sem, contudo, aumentar as pressões do dilema da segurança. Esse suposto reafirma o princípio egoísta dos Estados, de buscarem maximizar o seu poder para melhor garantir a sua sobrevivência, mas mostrando que novos tempos exigem novas formas de maximização de poder. Para tanto, demonstramos a continuidade da unipolaridade dos Estados Unidos na balança de poder global e apontamos, via 15 indicadores diferentes, que a polaridade sul-americana encontra-se em um momento de transição entre uma multipolaridade desequilibrada e uma unipolaridade brasileira, sofrendo pressões sistêmicas de ambas as configurações e corroborando as expectativas de nossa teoria. Conclui-se que o reaparelhamento ou não das Forças Armadas brasileiras levará à definição do sobe e desce das pressões sistêmicas regionais para a cooperação em defesa: se confirmada a unipolaridade, haverá maiores incentivos para as iniciativas em andamento criadas e mantidas pelo protagonismo brasileiro, como a UNASUL e o CDS. Contudo, se configurada a multipolaridade desequilibrada, os incentivos sistêmicos serão para a manutenção de uma integração baixa e instituições fracas na área de cooperação em defesa na América do Sul.The defence cooperation in South America is explained by the Offensive Realist Theory of Cooperation in Defence under Unipolarity - hereby introduced. After identifying a meaningful gap in international relations theories and in ad hoc works which tryed to explain defence cooperation in other parts of the world, our theory brings explanations for (1) states' motivations to cooperate in defence; (2) the independent variables that affect defense cooperation; (3) a comprehensive model of defense cooperation that can be applied to different regions of the world. We have shown that cooperating in defence works for improving the relative position of the participating states vis-a-vis either the other states or the unipole without increasing the pressures of the security dilemma. This requisite reaffirms the selfish principle of states of maximising their power to better ensure their survival, but showing that new times demand new ways of power maximisation. To do so, we have demonstrated the maintenance of the United States' unipolarity at the global balance of power and shown, through 15 different indexes, that the South-American polarity finds itself in a transitory moment between an unbalanced multipolarity and a Brazilian unipolarity, suffering then pressures from both configurations and thus corroborating our theory's expectations. Our conclusion is that the refitting or not of the Brazilian Armed Forces will lead to the definition of the ups and downs of the sistemic regional pressures on defence cooperation: if it is confirmed the Brazilian unipolarity, there will be greater incentives for the ongoing initiatives created and maintened by Brazil, such as UNASUR and SDC. Nevertheless, if the unbalanced multipolarity is confirmed, the sistemic incentives will be for the maintenance of a low regional integration and weak institutions on the South American defence cooperation field.
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Andrade, George Bronzeado de. "O reatamento das relações sino-americanas (1969-1972): um estudo tripartido da maximização do poder rumo à hegemonia norte-americana na Ásia." Universidade Estadual da Paraíba, 2014. http://tede.bc.uepb.edu.br/tede/jspui/handle/tede/2126.
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The end of the 60s and early 70s is marked by the resumption of Sino-US relations under the sign of detente. At this moment in history, the United States Richard Nixon and Communist China of Mao Zedong resume interrupted a relationship for more than twenty years, marked by failure dating back to the victory of the Communist Revolution of Mao Zedong in 1949. Their reunion of two nations, who advocated socio-economic systems and differing ideologies, outside this period grassada the realistic pragmatism policies of Washington and Beijing. It's about this phenomenon that in many ways "shocked" the world, which seeks to undertake a multidimensional understanding of Sino-American resumption under the tripartite perspective of the study of history, analysis of official documents from the U. S. State Department and reading theory to explain the phenomenon of rapprochement, with emphasis on the approach of offensive realism Mearsheimer, who intuits to an American company in the Asian region towards maximizing power with the purpose of seeking regional hegemony.
O fim da década de 60 e início da década de 70 é marcada pelo reatamento das relações sino-americanas sob o signo da détente. Nesse momento da história, os Estados Unidos de Richard Nixon e a China Comunista de Mao Tsé-tung retomam um relacionamento interrompido há mais de vinte anos, marcado pela interrupção que remonta à vitória da Revolução Comunista de Mao Tsé-tung em 1949. O reencontro das duas nações, que defendiam sistemas sócio-econômicos e ideologias divergentes, fora nesse período grassada pelo pragmatismo realista das políticas d e Washington e Pequim. É sobre esse fenômeno que em muitos sentidos ―chocou‖ o mundo, que se busca empreender uma compreensão multidimensional do reatamento sino-americano sob a perspectiva tripartite do estudo da história, da análise dos documentos oficiais do Departamento de Estado dos Estados Unidos e da leitura teórica para explicar o fenômeno da reaproximação, com ênfase na abordagem do realismo ofensivo de Mearsheimer, que intui para empresa norte-americana na região asiática rumo à maximização de poder com fins de buscar a hegemonia regional.
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Prifti, Bledar. "Continuation in US Foreign Policy: An Offensive Realist Perspective." Scholar Commons, 2014. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/5384.
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This dissertation is a study of US foreign policy that aims at maintaining its regional hegemonic status and preventing the emergence of another regional hegemon by implementing the offshore balancing strategy. US intervention during the 2003 Iraq War, strained US-Iran relationship, and the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in early 2014 compel a reevaluation of US foreign policy. Two major claims of this dissertation include: (1) US foreign policy is consistent with offensive realist theoretical claims; and (2) US foreign policy is characterized by continuity when it comes to issues related to America's strategic interests. Utilizing a case study and comparative case study methodology, this dissertation outlines the following findings.
The first finding of this dissertation is that US foreign policy actions under the Bush Doctrine, which led to the 2003 Iraq War, were dictated by the anarchic status of the international system, the possession by Iraq of military capabilities that could harm or destroy America, fear from and suspicion of Iraq's intentions, the need to ensure survival in an anarchic system, and the need to maximize relative power vis-à-vis other states. All these factors led to three main pattern of behavior: fear, self-help, and power maximization. Because there was no other regional great power capable and willing to balance Iraq, the US was forced to rely on direct balancing by threatening Iraq to take military actions, creating an anti-Iraqi alliance, and maximizing its relative power by destroying Iraq's military capabilities.
Second, US foreign policy under the Bush Doctrine was a continuation of the 20th century foreign policy. US foreign policy during the 20th century was dictated by three major patterns of behavior: fear, self-help, and power maximization. In realizing its foreign policy goals, the US had to rely on buck-passing and balancing strategies. Whenever there was no regional great power able and willing "to carry the buck", the US would rely on direct balancing by either threatening the aggressor, creating alliances with other regional states, or utilizing additional resources of its own. Four major presidential doctrines and related occurrences were utilized to test the claim: the Roosevelt Corollary, the Truman Doctrine, the Carter Doctrine, and the Reagan Doctrine.
The last finding of this dissertation is that US foreign policy toward Iran constitutes continuity and is dictated by US need to maintain regional hegemony by acting as an offshore balancer. In addition, the US and Iran share mutual strategic interests in several occasions, and a strategic win or loss for one state is a win or loss for the other. Like that of the US, Iran's foreign policy is guided by rationality. The Iran-Contra affair, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, and the Russia-Chechnya conflict support the claim that Iran's foreign policy is based on rationality instead of religious ideology as argued by many scholars. Also, the 2001 Afghanistan war, the 2003 Iraq war, and the establishment of the ISIL support the claim that the US and Iran share mutual strategic interests. Cooperation is often desirable and in some cases inevitable. Despite this strong claim, US-Iran relationship has its own limitations because neither the US nor Iran would accept a too powerful other that could establish absolute dominance in the region.
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Cantelmo, Robert G. "Hegemonic ambition| Offensive Realist Prescriptions for Regional Hegemons in External Regio." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10002419.
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At the conclusion of the Cold War, many hoped the international system had finally escaped the harsh realities of geopolitics. Despite optimism about the emergence of an American-led unipolar system, some structural realists believed the abatement of geopolitics was a temporary phenomenon: a brief respite before a return to great power conflict. This gloomy worldview gave rise to the sub-school of offensive realism, which theorizes that states pursue relative power maximization to ensure survival and, ideally, regional hegemony. A relatively young school, offensive realism has primarily focused on the paths states take to pursue bids for regional hegemony. This study seeks to fill some of the gaps that exist in how great powers, having achieved regional hegemony, behave abroad. Support for this research is drawn from a review of existing literature on offensive realism and a case study on U.S. behavior following 1898.
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Wemmenhög, Torbjörn. "Maktbalans och polaritet i dagens Europa : En kausal fallstudie med offensiv realism." Thesis, Försvarshögskolan, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4650.
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USA har nu hört och sett Rysslands tendenser till maktanspråk i Europa och vilka medel man är villig och kapabel att använda sig av. Detta föranleder NATO att rusta upp sina resurser och vidare fördjupa säkerhetsdilemmat i Europa. Att bibehålla och expandera ett starkt NATO i Europa även efter kalla krigets slut har visat på USA:s förmåga att navigera världspolitiken på ett proaktivt sätt utan att löpa några risker för den egna nationella säkerheten. USA:s engagemang på den Europeiska arenan ska primärt tolkas som en strategi för att balansera upp Ryssland och bara sekundärt som en idealistisk ambition att värna om regional fred och säkerhet. Vi kan således utläsa att ingen av aktörerna är intresserade av status quooch den process av maktmaximering som pågått i Europa sedan långt tillbaka fortsatt lika aktiv.
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Cullen, Timothy M. "Lethality, legality, and reality : non-lethal weapons for offensive air support /." Maxwell AFB, Ala. : School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, 2008. https://www.afresearch.org/skins/rims/display.aspx?moduleid=be0e99f3-fc56-4ccb-8dfe-670c0822a153&mode=user&action=downloadpaper&objectid=a2337c60-326b-4da1-ba03-8aa903e963d9&rs=PublishedSearch.
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Skagne, Felix. "Offensiv realism i Sydkinesiska havet : En teoriprövande studie om Kinas agerande i regionen." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för statsvetenskap (ST), 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-79433.
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The aim of this thesis is to examine to what extent China acts as a superpower in the South China Sea. In order to accomplish the purpose of the study the International relations theory Offensive realism has been applied. The thesis is a case study, with the premiss to test Offensive realism on the selected case. Data is gathered from books and articles. Within the framework of Offensive realism, three categories have been selected to study China’s actions on three different occasions. The categories that have been applied are diplomacy, economy, and military. The occasions occur at different time periods, 1974, 2012, and 2014, in order to be able to give the study a wide basis. The result shows, that from an Offensive realism perspective, China acts like a superpower in the South China Sea. In the cases studied China acts as a superpower in all of them. Breaking it down to the applied categories, diplomacy, economy, and military, it is showcased that China’s actions in the region are corresponding to that of a superpower eight of nine times. China seeks control of the region's wealth to strengthen its own economy, which in turn strengthens the country's military. Furthermore, the growth of the economy and resources means that control of the area is centered to China. Which increases the chance for China of creating a hegemony in the region.
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Brustlein, Corentin. "Innovations offensives et puissance militaire au vingtième siècle." Thesis, Lyon 3, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LYO30064.
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Cette thèse s’inscrit dans une perspective combinant le paradigme réaliste des relations internationales et la pensée clausewitzienne, afin d’évaluer l’impact des révolutions dans les affaires militaires (RAM) offensives sur les équilibres internationaux et la puissance militaire des Etats. Au sein d’un système international anarchique, une innovation offensive confère un avantage militaire à son possesseur devant lui permettre de façonner son environnement par un recours à la force pour transformer le statu quo et imposer plus aisément sa volonté à ses adversaires. Cette thèse propose d’évaluer l’impact des RAM offensives du XXe siècle sur la puissance militaire des Etats à l’aune de deux facteurs : la conservation par l’innovateur d’un avantage militaire sur ses adversaires et sa capacité à leur imposer sa volonté en leur infligeant une défaite décisive. La perspective réaliste et clausewitzienne adoptée amène ainsi à rappeler le caractère intrinsèquement interactif et compétitif d’un système anarchique. Source d’avantage militaire pour son possesseur, une RAM offensive est également source de menace et d’opportunité pour les acteurs l’observant. Son apparition et, plus encore, son emploi devraient ainsi susciter des réactions d’équilibre des puissances internes à l’origine d’une diffusion des capacités et d’une efficacité décroissante de l’innovation. Cette thèse rejette ensuite le postulat d’une relation de causalité simple entre RAM offensive et victoire. La capacité d’un innovateur à remporter une victoire décisive est avant tout conditionnée par des considérations politico-stratégiques telles que la définition des buts de guerre et la supériorité de la défensive sur l’offensive. Les hypothèses formulées sont testées à partir de l’étude de trois cas : la révolution des armes combinées de la Première Guerre mondiale, la « guerre-éclair », et la « guerre de précision » apparue au cours des deux dernières décenniesThis dissertation aims to assess the impact of Twentieh Century offensive revolutions in military affairs (RMA) on the distribution of military power in the international system. To do so, it combines elements from the realist paradigm of international relations and from clausewitzian strategic theory. In an anarchical international system, a state possessing an offensive RMA should be able to shape its security environment by changing the status quo and to impose its will on adversaries through the use of force. The impact of offensive innovations on states’ military power is assessed by looking at two variables: the ability of the innovator to maintain a military advantage over its adversaries, and its ability to impose its will by inflicting decisive defeats. Combining realism and clausewitzian theory leads us to reaffirm that an anarchical international system is intrinsically interactive and competitive. While an offensive RMA can offer a tremendous military advantage to its possessor, states facing it can see it as both a threat and an opportunity. Its disclosure and employment should trigger internal balancing policies, which would in turn cause a spread of military capabilities and decrease the RMA’s overall effectiveness. This dissertation also rejects the idea of a direct causal link between offensive RMAs and victory. Above all, an innovator’s ability to obtain decisive victory lies with political and strategic factors such as war aims and the superiority of defense over offense. Three case studies have been conducted to test the resulting hypotheses: the First World War combined-arms revolution, the blitzkrieg revolution, and the information technology revolution that occurred during the last two decades
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Svensson, Fredrik. "Why did't Reagan invade Rhode Island instead? : En studie om Ronald Reagans motiv till att USA skulle intervenera på Grenada." Thesis, Högskolan Kristianstad, Sektionen för Lärarutbildning, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hkr:diva-7694.
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Studien behandlar de motiv den amerikanske presidenten Ronald Reagan fann till att USA skulle intervenera på Grenada, samt hur denna motivbild skapades. Som teori användes John J Mearsheimers offensiva realism och metoden tog sin utgångspunkt i Ernesto Laclau och Chantal Mouffes diskursanalys. Materialet som undersöktes bestod av texter och uttalanden med Reagan som avsändare. I analysen visade sig både motiv tillhörande den realistiska och liberala diskursen. Den liberala diskursen var dock underställd den realistiska, vilket visade på en hegemoni för den senare.
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Brännlund, Alexander. "Israel's Best Offense is a Good Defense : Assessing defensive realism as applied to the Six-Day-War and the Israeli-Arab peace treaties." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för statsvetenskap (ST), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-100438.
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In the form of a theory testing case study based upon the seminal works of Kenneth Waltz and Stephen Walt, this thesis seeks to uncover whether defensive realism can be applied with focus on Israeli international conduct. This is defined by their wartime actions as well as their peacekeeping efforts. The paper analyses two major historical events; namely the six-day-war and the recent Israeli-Arab peace treaties. Thereafter it delves into the preexisting conditions of each combattant in the war, then reviews the events unfolding during the conflict in the first part of the analysis, followed by the second part examining the contents of the Abraham Accords, as well as the official statements of Bahrain and Sudan regarding peace with Israel. Following this, the thesis examines the details and terms of the Abraham Accords and treaties between Israel, Bahrain and Sudan. A hypothesis is presented predicting that both tenets of defensive realism will be applicable to their respective parts of Israeli history. It is subsequently found that the first tenet of defensive realism has explanatory value with regards to the six-day-war, the second tenet of defensive realism that follows also proves to hold significant merit, and the thesis concludes that the given hypothesis therefore is correct. Both tenets of defensive realism are applicable to respective units of analysis on Israel, which therefore suggests that the theory of defensive realism offers a good framework for explaining the actions of the Israeli state.
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Murray, Travis Douglas John. "The unreliable ally: offensive structural realism and rollback in Nicaragua." 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1993/326.
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Lin, Pin-hua, and 林品樺. "Offensive Realism and U.S. strategic rebalancing to the East Asia." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/60591181476772683831.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
政治學研究所
102
Reviewing the relationship between the Offensive Realism and U.S. rebalancing policy, discovers that Offensive Realism can explain the motivation of rebalancing policy’s implementation. Also examine the challenges of potential hegemony which prompting the hegemony to maintain the power. However, the boundary of the theory itself to the pursuit of power maximize and maintain the status quo are not clear. The theory itself lacks explanations for both the status of hegemony and how the continuation of the policy of hegemony. Rebalancing policy faces diverse dominations, due to American foreign policy tend to adopt both clear and vague strategy, so Offensive Realism not fully be explained, but in the current structure of realism can apply to the hegemony as the analysis theoretical foundation. The realism is not decline, but ascendant. According to the rebalancing policy, when the crisis began to produce hegemonic powers of its own, it will take the offensive strategy rather than defensive strategy in the region for maintain the national interest and the stage of hegemony. Therefore, Offensive Realism as a test of the theory can partly explain the rebalancing policy’s motivation and act.
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黃柏維. "Buckpassing in Warring States Period: a view and analysis from Offensive Realism." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/60705614376123594823.
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HUANG, TAI-JUI, and 黃泰瑞. "Offensive Neoclassical Realism and PRC’s Military Development：An Analysis focused on Outer Mongolia." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/78yum3.
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碩士國防大學
戰略研究所
107
The rise of the PRC is a major theme in international relations since the 1990s. Asfor the implications of PRC’srise, it is common to adopt an offensive neorealist perspective. A rising great power will inevitably move toward aggression and expansion. In recent years, the PRC indeed expanded its martime military strengh against its south east neighboring countries with martime territorial disputes. However, if the offensive neorealist argument is correct, because of the stopping power of waters, it is the land power that dominating the international arena, aggression and expansion means territorial expansions in large scale. Thus, according to this theory, the PRC should build up its land force aiming to reclaimthe lost territories in the late Qing Dynasty. Like those acient dynasties in the Chinese history, they also extended in the northwest direction during their peak of power. There is obvious derivationbetween theory and reality of PRC’s military buildup since 1990. PRCalways proposed "to adhere to the principle of building a strong army of science and technology, and to win the strategic goal of building an information war, and to accelerate the mechanization and comprehensive development of information technology", but the modernization of its military power, are largely focused on martine domain,while the development of land force is relatively neglected. In this regard, in addition to the system level of analysis on the offensive neorealism, the unit level factors of neoclassical realism, can provide a proper explanation. The PRC was influenced by the pro-Russian anti-West ideology and the communist anti-tradition ideology. These two factors deviated PRC from the systematic pressure of land military power for northwest expansion.
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Yu, Chun-Wei, and 余俊緯. "A Study on China Rising in John J. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism perspective（2001~2011）." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/92904223073341858494.
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碩士國立中正大學
戰略暨國際事務研究所
101
From classical realism to neorealism, to offensive realism, “power,” is always the most important factor in the school of realism, and John J. Mearsheimer is an international relation scholar who manipulates power to the utmost. In his representative work The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, he reduced the definition of power into “potential power,” and “military power,” and then made use of the aforementioned to analyze the rising of Europe’s hegemony from 1792-1990, furthermore he argued “international politics,” as “great power politics,” in the anarchy international society. Country will pursue power constantly until to the regional hegemony. Besides, according to the perspective of offensive realism, he predicted China’s rising will threaten the structure of international system. Therefore, this article would follow John J. Mearsheimer’s power measure model, at first, from “objective” aspect, to explore the background element of China’s economic and military power rising, secondly, from “subjective” aspect, to examine the idea of China rising under the perspective of offensive realism through the three hypothesis mentioned by John J Mearsheimer's prediction of the structure of power of Northeastern Asia in 2020, in order to understand the explanation between theory and reality.
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Chang, Yueh Szu, and 張越思. "A analysis of disputes on Sino-Japanese East China sea disputes: validating of offensive/defensive realism." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/32408823885919655535.
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Suen, Hao-Ren, and 孫晧人. "The Change of the Bush Administration’s Asian-Pacific Strategy Pre- and Post-“911”: An “Offensive Realism” Perspective." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/85957334261127770417.
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碩士中國文化大學
美國研究所
98
Upon assuming the office in 2001, facing with the security uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region and the rise of China that might become the U. S.’s potential rivalry in the region prompted the Bush’s Administration to treat China as both a “strategic competitor” in the U. S.-Sino relationship and a primary axis of its Asia-Pacific security strategy. After the “9/11” incident and under its necessity to fight terrorism, the Bush government sought cooperation from the great powers in the Asia-Pacific region, including China, to form anti-terrorism coalitions. However, with the coalitions, the Bush government later garrisoned military forces in China’s backyard—the Central Asia, and suggested, in its 2006 National Security Strategy report, the potential threats from the great powers due to China’s military development in the region. This research explores the Bush Government’s cooperating and competing policy strategy, the contributing factors, and the change of its Asia-Pacific strategy after the “9/11 incident” within the realm of “Realism” and based on the core concept of the “Offensive Realism” approach, such as the unpredictable intentions among nations, the unavoidable conflicts, and regional hegemonies’ adoption of the “Offshore Balancing” strategy on external affairs. Under the “Offensive Realism” framework, it examines the revision of the Bush government’s Asia-Pacific strategy that embraced three major issues: 1) strengthening the U.S.-Japan relationship as specified in the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan; 2) solving the nuclear weapon crisis of the North Korea; and 3) coping with China’s rise, along with the residual effect of its Asia-Pacific strategic deployment. The research finds that, after the “9/11”, the U. S. relied more and more on its “Offshore Balancing” policy given its geographic feature and economic downturn. The Administration’s phased anti-terrorism coalition and cognitive Asian-Pacific strategy based on the “Offensive Realism” had not only aroused high concerns from China, the Central Asia, and the Southeast Asia, but also become its objective of containing the great powers in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Liao, Wen-Yi, and 廖文義. "The Analysis of U.S. Policy toward "The Rise Of China": The Perspective of John Mearsheimer's Offensive Realism." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/63032863391271947909.
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博士中國文化大學
政治學研究所
95
The rise of China has been a focal point, which arouses hot debates among academics and nations in the past decade. Different countries have different perceptions on the rise of China. This dissertation mainly examines how the Untied States reacts, in terms of thinking and actions, to the rise of China. Drawing on John Mersheimer’s offensive realism, this research establishes a novel analytical framework and then examines the explanatory power of Mersheimer’s theory for the purpose of complementing and integrating both theory and facts. This dissertation finds that John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism provides an essential framework to explain the relationships between hegemonic powers and emerging powers. While emerging powers aim to take place of existing hegemon (namely the US), the latter takes all necessary means to prevent emerging powers from challenging its status and authority. This logic of analytical framework applies to the US-China relationships in the wake of the rising China. As the US perceives China as an emerging power, China acquires potential capability to challenge US hegemonic status in the future. According to John Mersheimer’s offensive realism, shirking is the top option for existing hegemon in response to emerging powers. This dissertation argues that as an offshore balancer, the US should shirk its dominant role and invite surrounding countries of China to counterbalance China before Beijing actually poses a threat to US hegemonic status. Ironically, in observing US practices since 1990, Washington has not been shirking its responsibility. Instead, the US chooses to actively intervene the rise of China and maintain its hegemonic position through multiple approaches. A reasonable explanation is that the US aims to control and contain the threat of emerging powers as early as possible and expect to constrain the emerging powers within an acceptable scope.
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Wu, Ming-Shan, and 吳明珊. "The Impacts of China Rising on U.S. Policy of SouthAsia (1991~2013): A Perspective of Offensive Realism." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/30359171960732671268.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
國家發展研究所
101
The rising China has been widely viewed as the most important actor with far-reaching consequences upon the post-Cold War international system since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Geopolitical competitions between the incumbent hegemon—the United States and the rising China are now closed watched not only by policy-makers but also by International Relations theorists. At the center of the debate is about the strategic gesture of Washington and Beijing towards each other. In short, the core issue concerns offensive / defensive options the two countries may choose to deal with the other. Given the implementation of Washington’s strategy of “Rebalancing”, this thesis hypothesizes that the US would adopt “offensive” rather than “defensive” measures to offset China’s growing influences in the sub-continent of South Asia. It proposed empirical indicators to test to what extent Washington’s strategies towards India, Pakistan, and Myanmar from 2008 onward were “offensive” in nature, aiming at diluting China’s influences, checking China’s power and eventually establish a pro-US geopolitical sphere ensuring Washington’s supremacy. After carful studies based on empirical evidence, the offensive realist assumptions are basically verified. It further indicates that China’s expanding economic policy tools paradoxically invited Washington’s massive, all-round engagement in the region. Eventually the only reliable partner benefited from China’s clout and aids is Pakistan. Through “offensive” measures the US has regained its pivotal role which China can hardly compete.
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Dwyer, JM. "The best offence is a good defence? : The effects of ballistic missile defence on nuclear deterrence." Thesis, 2022. https://eprints.utas.edu.au/46298/1/Dwyer_whole_thesis.pdf.
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Despite a significant amount of research addressing the effects of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) on nuclear deterrence, little consensus exists as to how BMD specifically affects the strategic calculus of great power nuclear deterrence. Nor is there consensus as to why great powers would seek to destabilise the offence-offence balance that has dominated great power relations during and after the Cold War. This study tests whether a theoretical framework of offensive realism, in combination with deterrence theory and offence-defence theory, can provide a compelling argument as to why great powers would seek to deploy BMD, and what steps affected rival great powers would take to address the resulting strategic imbalance. To do this, the thesis presents two case studies, assessing US BMD deployments in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, the claimed purpose of these deployments (the defence against the ‘rogue’ states Iran and North Korea respectively) and whether these deployments are actually oriented towards providing defence against Russia and China. By analysing the US BMD deployments, and the subsequent responses Russia and China are taking to address or circumvent the threat posed by US BMD, the thesis presents the argument that offensive realism provides a credible and authoritative explanation for both the US motivations for deploying BMD, namely increasing its relative power, and moving closer to achieving nuclear superiority over its rivals. Further, the study found that the effects of BMD on great powers are not homogenous, and do not have a single effect – Rather, the impacts vary due to the existing nuclear relationship between Russia and the US on the one hand, and the US and China on the other. The result of this difference is that Russia and China are responding in different ways, and that Russia, due to its reliance on its nuclear deterrent and tactical nuclear weapons, is suffering more adverse effects than China, which does not rely as heavily on its nuclear deterrent for its overall security. Additionally, the study finds that current BMD capabilities are irrelevant, and that it is the perception of potential future capability that are causing Russia and China to respond to US BMD in order to maintain the credibility of their respective nuclear deterrents.
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Hsu, Chih-Ping, and 徐至平. "The Comparative Study on Bush Administration’s Policy toward the Axis of Evil’s Nuclear Problem－Viewed from Offensive Realism." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/88960297220410439666.
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碩士國立中興大學
國際政治研究所
95
US President Bush’s 2002 State of the Union Address indicated that “Iran, Iraq and North Korea were ‘the Axis of Evil’ which threatens the world peace with seeking Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD).” However, Bush administration has adopted different policies towards the nuclear problems of these three “Evil Axis” countries. To Iraq, the troop of US was launched to Iraq after diplomatic means failed. To North Korea, U.S. wanted diplomatic solutions to North Korea’s nuclear crisis through Six-Party Talks. To Iran, U.S. urged EU and UN to pressure Iran into abandoning nuclear weapons; meanwhile, U.S. deployed deterrent forces in Middle East to show its determinations to prevent global nuclear proliferation once diplomatic approaches cannot work. In order to study Bush Administration’s foreign policies on the Axis of Evil’s nuclear problems, this study takes offensive realism as research approach and uses three variables - “regional hegemony,” “offshore balancer,” and “power struggle” - to analyze US policy motives, positions, and means toward the “Axis of Evil” countries. This study concludes that offensive realism has provided good explanations for the reasons why Bush administration has adopted different policies towards these three “Evil Axis” countries despite the motive and position is similar in this circumstances. Therefore, this consequence has also proved that the certain behaviors of hegemony in power competitions between international politics, and also found that there are some conflicts and limits in taking offensive realism as research approach in the study.
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Li, Hui-Yi, and 李蕙貽. "The Development of China’s National Comprehensive Power in the Context of Xi Jinping’s China Dream (2012-2017): From the Offensive Realism Perspective." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/34crx7.
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博士國防大學政治作戰學院
政治研究所
106
After Xi Jinping took office, he proposed the ‘China Dream’ as a dream of peaceful development and successful cooperation. And the dream is a national rejuvenation that makes the people happiness and the country prosperity. This study explores whether the "China Dream" can help China's national power expansion with offensive realism. Offensive realism uses military strength as the main force of the country and economic forces is the auxiliary force to the development of military forces. Therefore, the discussion of the current state of the the development of China's national power is divided into two parts. Taking military reforms and military exercises as indicators for observing the development of China's military power and predict the influences of the "One Belt and One Road Initiative" of the economic and military power of the Chinese Communist Party. "Power" has always played an important element of international politics. It is based on a discussion of the development of national power under Xi Jinping's "China Dream". This study found that even though the mainland China claims not to be " hegemony," China has become a regional power and changes the power structure of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region have aggravated Sino-US competition after Xi Jinping’s policy. The regional power interactions affect the balance of power between the two sides of the strait at the same time, so our country should face the international political changes and formulate responsing strategies to safeguard our national security.
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Yang, Shih-Yueh, and 楊仕樂. "Beyond the Offensive and Defensive Realism in the International Politics: An Attempt of Interaction and Structure Explanations on the Stability of the International System." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/31164185819569857002.
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博士國立政治大學
外交研究所
95
The purposes of this thesis are: examining the current obstructions in Realist theory of international politics, proposing alternatives, and conducting empirical studies. The thesis finds that, the debates between Offensive and Defensive Realism are unnecessary. The level of analysis problem is still crucial: unit level explanations are complex and hard to test, but system level explanations base on the structure of relative power distribution are not satisfactory either. Thus, to get rid of the offensive and defensive labeling, the thesis proposes two alternatives within the Realist material tradition: “interaction” and “structure” explanations on the stability of the international system. The thesis argues that, interaction capacity is both a source of explanation and the precondition of a system. In the future, the theory of international politics should take offense-defense balance as logic of explanation to explore technology, geography, and absolute power distribution as independent variables. In addition, the concept of stability as a dependent variable should also be expanded. Stability is not merely the avoidance of war, but the threat to peace. The scope of the qualitative empirical studies are European and global international systems from 1648 to present. In general, the thesis finds rather positive results to support the interaction and structure explanations.
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Jetelinová, Denisa. "Analýza chování vybraných států v Jihočínském moři." Master's thesis, 2019. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-398864.
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The South China Sea has been already for several centuries the root of a dispute among states neighbouring along its borders, namely the People's Republic of China (China), Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia. Since the Sea is very geopolitically and geostrategically important, China attempts to claim itself to be a sovereign. However, its activities face the demands of other states, especially Vietnam and the Philippines, which are also interested in gaining control over the islands in the South China Sea. For that reason, the dispute still persists, and the continuous activities of all concerned countries have created an endless spiral of events in which it is difficult to distinguish between the action and the reaction of individual actors in the dispute. My diploma thesis therefore focuses on the analysis of actions of the three selected countries, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines, from the perspective of structural realism that is split into two contradictory streams, defensive and offensive. Their different views on the world help me to clarify whether the behaviour of the chosen actors is defensive of offensive. For the analysis, the period from 2011 to 2018 was chosen. During that time, several major incidents have appeared between selected countries, especially...
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Bílý, Prokop. "Velmocenská politika: Rusko a USA z hlediska realistických teorií mezinárodních vztahů." Master's thesis, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-332057.
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The diploma thesis focuses on great power politics at the dawn of the twenty-first century. The studied phenomenon is viewed through the lens of defensive, offensive a neoclassical realist perspective. The key goal of the thesis is to determine, whether contemporary streams of the realist international relations tradition can provide plausible explanation of great powers relations. The research is also embedded in the fourth great debate, which entered the international relations discipline during the course of 80's, and as such it tries to reflect current ontological and epistemological debate. Research results then show that realism is still a valid scientific discourse. On the other hand, neoclassical realism's research agenda, as is shown, takes over other theoretical perspectives features.
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Santos, Natacha. "O dragão do gelo: a República Popular da China no Ártico e na Antártida." Master's thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/1822/77115.
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Dissertação de mestrado em Relações InternacionaisO aquecimento global tem provocado o aceleramento do degelo tanto do Ártico como da Antártida. Esta amenização do clima, tem tornado ambas as regiões atrativas para diversos Estados de todo o mundo, que se tornaram uma fonte de diversas oportunidades. Assistiu-se assim, a uma corrida aos recursos naturais de ambas as regiões polares. O foco da presente dissertação é a República Popular da China (RPC). O seu principal objetivo é compreender a evolução da presença chinesa para o Ártico e para a Antártida sob a Presidência de Xi Jinping. Para isso foram utilizados métodos qualitativos, nomeadamente o estudo comparativo entre as regiões polares. O quadro teórico aplicado é o do neorrealismo ofensivo de John Mearsheimer, que analisa a República Popular da China enquanto governo autoritário e potência em ascensão. A baliza temporal situa-se entre 2013, ano da apresentação da Faixa e Rota Chinesa ao mundo; e ano em que a RPC conseguiu o seu estatuto de membro-observador no Conselho do Ártico; e 2019, por ser o ano seguinte à publicação do White Paper chinês para o Ártico; e o último ano da era pré-COVID-19. Esta investigação conclui que a presença da RPC nas regiões polares tem vindo a crescer de forma exponencial, sendo de salientar que a sua presença na Antártida é mais antiga e influente.
Global warming has caused the melting of both the Arctic and the Antarctica to accelerate. This warming on the climate has made both regions attractive to several states around the world. They see in these regions a series of various opportunities. Thus, there is a race for natural resources on both Polar Regions. This dissertation intends to focus particularly on the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Its main goal is to understand the evolution of the Chinese presence for both the Arctic and the Antarctica under the Presidency of Xi Jinping. To achieve this, qualitative methods were used, namely comparative analysis. The theoretical framework adopted was John Mearsheimer’s offensive neorealism, under which the PRC is analysed as an authoritarian government and a rising power. This work’s time frame ranges from 2013 until 2019. In 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative was launched, and the PRC was granted its observer status at the Arctic Council. The year 2019 was chosen because it is the first year following the publication of the Chinese White Paper for the Arctic; and it also is the last year of the pre-COVID-19 era. This investigation concludes that the presence of the PRC in the Polar Regions has grown exponentially, while stressing that such presence is older and more influential in Antarctica.
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Bartáková, Aneta. "Příčiny Ukrajinské krize." Master's thesis, 2020. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-410395.
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A liberal understanding of international politics is currently dominant. However, it is important to note that there are still states that have not adopted this understanding, yet, which brings complications here. The current clash of these two understandings, i.e. liberalism and realism, thus constantly forms the security environment. Probably the most obvious case of the present seems to be the case of Ukraine and the related Ukraine crisis. The aim of this diploma thesis is to give a picture of the causes of the Ukraine crisis in a broader context than is generally interpreted across individual media, using an offensive-realistic framework. The motives of the individual actors of the conflict, especially Russia, will be examined in an attempt to present those motives as not primarily offensive but to some extent as defensive. Several research questions will serve me to fulfil the above-mentioned goal - How can the main causes of the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine be explained from the perspective of offensive realism? According to offensive realism, what actor is responsible for the outbreak of conflict? In terms of offensive realism, how can the motives of the key actors (i.e. Russia, the West) be explained?
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Chantal, Roromme. "Réinventer la stratégie d’affirmation de puissance dans le contexte post-Guerre froide : la réponse de la Chine à l’hégémonie américaine." Thèse, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/3884.
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Ce mémoire analyse la stratégie d’affirmation de puissance mise en oeuvre par la Chine dans le
contexte post-Guerre froide, caractérisé par la seule superpuissance des États-Unis, en utilisant le
cadre théorique du réalisme offensif. Challenger désigné des États-Unis, la Chine a basculé dans
le 21ème siècle avec un défi important à relever. La prépondérance américaine continue d’être une
donnée essentielle dans le système politique mondial. Les États-Unis produisent plus du quart du
total de l’économie mondiale et comptent pour près de la moitié des dépenses militaires. La
Chine, de son côté, avec ses 1.3 milliards d’habitants, une croissance économique quasiexponentielle,
dotée d’un arsenal nucléaire conventionnel, est la principale puissance émergente,
avec le potentiel de rivaliser avec les États-Unis dans les affaires mondiales. Mais, vu l’énorme
écart qui les sépare, pour la Chine la question de l’hégémonie américaine se pose sous la forme
d’une équation dont la seule variable connue est le potentiel de l’adversaire à affronter. Le
principal problème auquel la Chine est confrontée est dès lors sa capacité de penser une stratégie
sans toutefois courir le risque de provoquer la seule superpuissance du globe.
Par conséquent, cette étude analyse les politiques et actions stratégiques développées par
la Chine à la lumière des contraintes que lui impose un environnement international peu
favorable. Elle s’intéresse en particulier à la manière dont Beijing a su exploiter avec maestria
une des armes les plus redoutables de l’ère post-Guerre froide, sa puissance économique, afin de
consolider son ascension au rang de grande puissance. Elle soutient que, tenant compte d’un
retard considérable à combler, la Chine a entrepris de balancer la superpuissance américaine
d’une manière pragmatique. A cet effet, elle a conçu une stratégie qui comprend deux grands
piliers : sur le plan interne, des réformes économiques et militaires ; sur le plan externe, une
diplomatie agressive et efficace en adéquation avec ses ambitions de puissance. Nous concluons
qu’une telle stratégie vise à éviter à la Chine pour le moment tout risque de confrontation directe
qui aurait pour principal effet de nuire à son ascension. Cependant, à mesure que sa puissance
s’accroît, elle pourrait afficher une posture plus agressive, quitte à engager également, avec la
seule superpuissance du monde, des compétitions de nature sécuritaire en Asie et au-delà de cette
région.This research analyzes the power strategy implemented by China in the post-cold war context characterized by an only superpower, the United States, by using offensive realism as a theoretical framework. Designated challenger of the United States, China tilted into the 21st century with an important challenge to confront. The American ascendancy continues to be an essential fact in the world political system. The United States produces more than one fourth of the total of the world economy and counts for nearly half of the military expenditures. China, for its part, with 1.3 billion inhabitants, a quasi-exponential economic growth, endowed with a conventional nuclear arsenal, is the main emerging power, with the potential to compete with the United States in world affairs. But, considering the enormous gap separating them, for China the question of the American hegemony arises under the shape of an equation, the only known variable of which is the potential of its adversary. The main problem China then faces is its ability to think of a strategy without however running a risk of provoking the only superpower of the globe. Consequently, this work analyzes the policies and the strategic actions developed by China in light of the constraints imposed by a less favorable international environment. Its main focus is how Beijing exploited with great panache one of the most redoubtable weapons of the post-cold war era, its economic power, to strengthen its ascent to the rank of major power. It contends that, taking into account a considerable delay to catch up, China began to balance the American superpower in a pragmatic way. To that purpose, it conceived a strategy which includes two main pillars: internally, economic and military reforms; externally, an aggressive and effective diplomacy in adequacy with its power ambitions. This analysis concludes that the aim of china’s strategy is to avoid for the moment every risk of direct confrontation which would have for main effect to damage its rise. However, as its power increases, it might tend to show a more aggressive posture, even if it means also engaging, with the only superpower of the world, in competitions of a security nature in Asia and beyond this region.
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Viegas, José Manuel dos Santos Carrascozinho Bonito. "Soberania e "guerras humanitárias" um desafio ao realismo ofensivo." Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/15912.
Full textAbstract:
Nesta dissertação faz-se uma reflexão sobre uma questão de segurança internacional: as guerras (sob
narrativas) "humanitárias". Para o efeito, recorre-se ao Realismo, propondo-se uma "extensão" da teoria
de Realismo Ofensivo de John J. Mearsheimer. Procura-se assim aumentar o poder explicativo daquela
teoria, em face da realidade dos últimos 70 anos, que não conheceu nenhuma "grande guerra" entre as
"grandes potências". Entende-se assim que o Realismo Ofensivo deve considerar que os Estados recorrem
na sua "competição pela segurança", para além da guerra convencional, a meios e estratégias ofensivas
"não convencionais". Tal tornou-se particularmente verdade pela alteração na natureza da guerra (no
sentido de Carl von Clausewitz), com o surgimento das armas nucleares. Isso significou que a guerra
(entre as grandes potências) continuou por outros meios, nomeadamente, com recurso à guerra política
(no sentido George F. Kennan). E também através de "estratégias ofensivas" - como a mudança de
regimes hostis e de guerras por procuração - para com isso evitar o surgimento de competidores e
incrementar a sua esfera de influência hegemónica. Faz-se uma breve análise da Guerra da Síria,
situando-a num contexto geopolítico procurando compreende-la no seio de uma "grande estratégia" dos
EUA. Por fim - e tendo-se demonstrado que as normas ético-jurídicas não moldam a realidade da
política das grandes potências - contrapõe-se a uma (pretensa) "soberania condicionada" à
responsabilidade de proteger, uma soberania política definida em função do poder dos Estados na ordem
internacional.In this dissertation a reflection is made on a question of international security: the wars (under narratives) "humanitarian". For this purpose, Realism is used, proposing an "extension" of John J. Mearsheimer's theory of Offensive Realism. It is sought to increase the explanatory power of that theory, in the face of the reality of the last 70 years, which has not experienced any "great war" between the "great powers". It is understood, therefore, that Offensive Realism must consider that States use in their competition for security, beyond conventional warfare, unconventional means and offensive strategies. This has become particularly true by the "changing character of war" (in Carl von Clausewitz's sense) with the emergence of nuclear weapons. This meant that war (among the "great powers") continued through other means, notably through "political warfare" (in the George F. Kennan sense). And also through offensive strategies - such as changing hostile regimes and "proxy wars" - in order to prevent the emergence of competitors and increase their hegemonic sphere of influence. A brief analysis of the Syrian War is made, situating it in a geopolitical context, trying to understand it within a "grand" US strategy. Finally - and having demonstrated that ethical-juridical norms do not shape the reality of "great power politics" - it is opposed to a (so-called) sovereignty conditioned to the "responsibility to protect", a "political sovereignty" defined as a "function of the State´s power in the international order".
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Chen, Shao-Kang, and 陳劭康. "Donald Trump’s foreign policy Towards China: The offensive realist perspective." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/n22qm4.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立政治大學
外交學系
107
This thesis aims to scrutinize the impacts of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy on the U.S.-China relations. To better understand how President Trump views the current U.S.-China relationship and the potential dangers of economic or military confrontations between the two great powers, the author employs the theory of offensive realism and Kenneth Waltz’s three “levels-of-analysis” as the basis of reasoning. The Trump administration has identified China as the greatest threat to U.S. national security, and President Trump’s policy aims to reverse the past trajectory of a bilateral relation that favored China and disadvantaged the United States in their long-run competition for global leadership. To break loose from that trajectory, the Trump administration has adopted the “America first” approach which marks the United States’ intention to take a confrontational stance until Beijing changes its long-standing unfair practices on a wide range of economic and security issues. The Trump administration’s negotiation strategy for achieving its objectives highlights their greater tolerance for friction with China and their willingness to push back on Chinese misbehaviors. This paper concludes that through the “America first” strategy, the Trump administration seeks to diminish the Chinese economic development, undermine its military advancements, and prevent it from overwhelming American influences in the Indo-Pacific region. However, according to the logic of offensive realism, these precautionary measures may still fail to prevent the PRC from evolving into a veritable great power that threatens the American hegemony. Even as President Trump adopts a realist stratagem and seeks to increase the relative power against China, he can only delay the detonation point of a U.S.-China war. In fact, when non-structural factors like state leaders’ characteristics conforms to the tenets of offensive realism, it will be even more difficult for great powers politics to escape the “Thucydides’s Trap.”
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Huang, Hong-Ji, and 黃宏吉. "Trump Administration’s China Policy (January 2017-June 2019): Offensive Realism’s Perspective." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/vq55e3.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立臺灣大學
國家發展研究所
107
This thesis examines the Trump Administration’s policy toward China from the theoretical perspective of offensive realism. Three hypotheses are proposed for theoretical testing: China is capable of being a potential hegemony, China is attempting to become a regional hegemony, and U.S. Government’s China policy has turned from being defensive to offensive. Various indicators of potential power, strategic objectives, and strategic choices are devised for hypothesis testing, which is followed by theoretical evaluation and review. The main conclusions of the research discovery are summarized as below: I. Trump Administration’s China policy is mainly driven by international, national and individual factors: The policy is a strategic response to China’s external expansion since Xi Jin-ping took power. The policy reflects the rise of conservatism, anti-globalizationalism, anti-establishmentarianism, patriotism as well as the bi-partisan convergence in tougher stances toward China. The policy is also affected by President Trump’s personal factors such as conservative beliefs, disrespect for established precedents and distaste for communism. II. China is equipped with both the capabilities of and the intensions to becoming a potential hegemony: Regarding capabilities, China has surpassed the U.S. in real GDP and is capable of waging a conventional war with the U.S. Regarding intensions, China is attempting to become the regional hegemony in the Asia-Pacific and Central-Southern Asia by means of Belt and Road Initiative, Made in China 2025, and militarization in the South China Sea. III. Trump Administration’s China policy is based on the pillar of strategic balancing: Trump Administration overturns the “constructive engagement” policy honored by previous administrations and instead takes on a new offensive policy of strategic balancing. The policies comprises Indo-Pacific strategy based on “free and open” alliances, trade and economic sanctions supported by market-economy alliances, and South China Sea military operations backed up by quasi-military alliances. IV. Offensive realism is a potent theoretical tool in explaining great powers’ strategies: China’s survival strategies as a potential hegemony-with hegemonic status, wealth, traditional forces and nuclear power as major objectives-are congruent with offensive realism’s theoretical assumptions and analyses. So are the U.S.’s survival strategies as an incumbent hegemony, with internal and external balancing in political, economic, and military aspects.
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Petreková, Patrícia. "Mírový vzestup Číny? Problematika Jihočínského moře." Master's thesis, 2020. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-415761.
Full textAbstract:
This diploma thesis deals with the rise of China in the context of its behavior in the South China Sea over the past decade. The significant economic growth of the People's Republic of China over the last few decades is expected to affect not only the regional balance of powers, but also its position within the international system. There is a wide-ranging debate in academia about how China will grow and how it will affect the international community. As a reaction, in order to explain its growth, China has introduced the concept of "peaceful development", according to which its growth should be seen as an opportunity rather than a threat to the international community. An offensive realism approach was chosen for this work and the ideas of its main advocate John Mearsheimer will be applied to the specific behavior of China in the region. The role of the United States, which influences China's behavior, will also be discussed. The diploma thesis will further deal with the increased Chinese assertiveness in the area of South China Sea and the means it uses in it to enforce its claims. The basic aim of this work is to underscore the contrast between the declared official policy of China and its actual behavior.
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Hsieh, Han-Hui, and 謝瀚輝. "Analyzing Bush Administration''s Policy Difference towardthe Nuclear Crises of North Korea and Iran — An Offensive Realist Perspective." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/fkwkw4.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立臺灣大學
政治學研究所
100
Since the nuclear crises of North Korea and Iran broke out in 2002, the U.S. has accused the two countries of attempting to develop nuclear weapons, and listed both as Axis of Evil as well as state sponsors of terrorism. Though same accusations were brought against both North Korea and Iran, the Bush Administration adopted very different policies when dealing with the two cases respectively. American policies were different in that the Bush Administration offered to negotiate with North Korea through the Six-Party Talks and provided incentives in exchange for Pyongyang’s not proliferating its nuclear weapons, yet when facing Iran, the U.S. retained its firm stance on the freezing of Tehran’s uranium enrichment program, refused to commence negotiation with Iran, and imposed strict sanctions against the regime. Under the circumstance that both North Korea and Iran were accused of breaching the NPT and categorized as enemy states of the U.S., the core question this thesis seeks to answer is: what elements and logic contributed to such significant difference in the policies of the Bush Administration in handling two similar nuclear proliferation crises? In order to answer the proposed research question properly, this thesis applies offensive realism as analytical framework and argues that the underlying logic of such U.S. policy difference is that America, the sole successful regional hegemon in the international system, as an offshore balancer, when facing the nuclear crises involving North Korea and Iran, adopted different policies according to its distinct assessment of the potential threat the two cases possessed respectively to its hegemony. Furthermore, after examining the two cases with regard to four different variables, including possession of nuclear weapons, motivation of developing nuclear weapons, connection with terrorism, and structure of regional international relations system, the Bush Administration came to the conclusion that Iran’s nuclear crisis represented a far more serious threat than that of North Korea, hence adopted tougher policies to suppress Iran. In conclusion, the reason why the Bush Administration, which was considered to have a hegemonist foreign policy approach, negotiated with and compromised on North Korea’s proliferation issue while remained unyielding and imposed strict sanctions on Iran’s nuclear crisis could be reasonably explained by the logic of offensive realism. The Bush Administration did not consider nuclear-armed North Korea as a potential threat to American hegemony, therefore chose to buck-pass this issue to local powers in Northeast Asia, particularly to China, its potential peer competitor. On the other hand, the nuclear-seeking Iran is a regional power attempting to expel American presence and seeking dominance over the Middle East, the U.S., as an offshore balancer, must maintain a balancing approach to suppress the challenges posed by Iran’s nuclear crisis. Based on the distinct assessments regarding the perceived threat to U.S. national security and hegemony resulted from the nuclear crises of North Korea and Iran respectively, the Bush Administration adopted different policies in dealing with the two cases accordingly.
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Clark, Erin A., and 柯玉蓮. "An Offensive Realist Assessment of the Implications of China''s Seapower for East Asian Relative Power, 1985-2015." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/03211816232515051460.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立臺灣大學
政治學研究所
104
In recent years, China’s seapower development and its effects on the region have piqued interest and given rise to debate. This thesis attempts to apply an analytical framework based on John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism to study the effects of China’s regional seapower on East Asia’s relative latent and actual power. Although the United States is the most powerful actor in the region, it is not a permanent presence. Therefore, this thesis will examine not only the relative power dynamic between the United States and China, but will also consider how China’s regional seapower is affecting the relative power dynamic between China and regional states. The first chapter explains the underlying motivation of this work and introduces the methodology and theory to be employed, while the second chapter fully lays out the theoretical basis for this thesis, describing in detail how John J. Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism has been adapted and applied within this research. The third chapter moves on to provide an analysis of the theoretical development directing Chinese seapower development and application. Chapter three reviews the development of China’s seapower theory from 1985 to 2015 and analyzes key concepts underpinning the application of Chinese seapower at the strategic and campaign levels. The fourth chapter explores China’s seapower development since 1985, paying particular attention to anti-surface warfare capabilities. This chapter studies the Chinese sea-based threat to the United States’ forward presence in East Asia and analyzes Chinese seapower’s anti-access and area denial capabilities vis-a-vis the United States. Chapter four concludes with a discussion of Chinese seapower’s ability to establish air and sea control, and to achieve local superiority in relation to regional states. Chapters five and six focus on the peacetime application of Chinese seapower within East Asia. As opposed to the analysis provided in chapter four, the discussion in chapters five and six pertains primarily to the implications of Chinese seapower for relative latent power. As such, these two chapters center on China’s “white hulls” and their use both in preventing other littoral states from exploiting regional resources and in securing living and non-living resources in the East and South China Seas for Chinese exploitation. The seventh chapter draws on the analysis of previous chapters and offers an overall assessment of trends in Chinese seapower development and implications for East Asian relative power. Unlike the preceding chapters, chapter seven identifies current trends and makes long-term projections for regional power based on these trends. Specifically, this chapter explores how China is using and will use seapower to weaken the United States’ relative actual power within East Asia and to strengthen its coercive power with regard to regional states. Chapter seven reaches the conclusion that Chinese seapower’s capability to challenge and weaken the United States’ forward military presence in East Asia continues to grow. As a result of this growth, Chinese seapower is providing—and will continue to provide—China with increased deterrent and coercive power vis-a-vis regional states, particularly the littoral states of the South China Sea. The final chapter of this thesis serves as a brief conclusion. After explaining the primary findings of this work, chapter eight offers possible contributions of this thesis to future academic research, and explores potential avenues for future research.